24/12/13 Tesla 427 USD - volcano erupted Tesla actually as an high flyer. Since end of october, the value has been doubled.
Are there any fundamental reasons, to substantiate such a move?
100% for sure not. Why?
Musk will launch next year another cheaper car. This may help to keep the piece of the market, but not to increase very higher sales in total. 2024 tesla sold end of Q3 not more cars than in 2023. last quarter .- we will see. But chinese Market is blocked by there own. See, in what a velocity china creates new companies in EV. They do it in the same way how they did it with PV Moduls.
Musk also will push the robotaxi. But he has neither a requires functionality nor a permission for such vehicles. And dont forget, amazon and google have already such cars driving. Google with her daughter with 50000 bookings per week, which will generate a lot of datas, Tesla does not have. And lot of important Tesla people in this technology leaved the company this year.
But overall: the US taxi market revenue per year is roundabout 22 B USD. Maybe 10% net earnings. Even with driverless vehicles the net earings are 30%, maximal net earnings for Tesla will be in 3-4 years maybe 70 Million USD, 10 years maybe 800 Million USD (USA, europe). Discount it with 4% and you will see …
If this robotaxi are good enough, not to buy an own car… we will see. Every man liked his own car. And if not, this business model will cannibalize the own business.
So - Tesla is fundamental overrated.
Technical side see chart.
Maybe actually prices are driven by short covering (remember Volkswagen and Mr. Merckly was driven in suicide).
So, prices now on upper bollinger boundary.
Prices extrem above SMA 40 Weeks, which was a sign for sharp correction.
And - I guess, some Short Sellers are coming onto to the floor.
But - richest man in the world is naturally at any time aible, to buy for private, for several billions. That means: Hedge funds as short sellers must have min. 10-20 B USD to fight or covered.
Dan 13.12.24
