4/14/25 - $irdm - Not a LT winner4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:IRDM
Not a LT winner
- looking across the space names today
- i think NASDAQ:ASTS remains the most interesting (and would benefit/ ironically from a space X IPO, mainly bc of multiple)
- but financial engineering, e.g. a dividend... solid CF generation is fine for a soda brand, but not for satellite comms.
- i could be wrong about this, but LSD growth and in a hyper competitive industry w/ many better co's w improved tech is just not a fight i want to fight.
- gl to the longs, but this one isn't for me
V
GOOGLE's generational bottom made. This is how it reaches $350.Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) almost tested last week its 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). That level has been holding for more than 2 years (since March 13 2023) and it's been the main Support of the Bull Cycle that followed the November 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
The pattern is almost like the Ascending Triangle that led to the March 2020 COVID crash, which was the most recent time before the late 2022 bottom that the stock made contact with the 1W MA200. As you realize, all those times have been what we call 'generational bottoms', thus extremely good long-term buy opportunities. And as you see they've been on extremely tight time symmetry, all took place roughly every 2.5 years.
If the pattern continues to repeat itself, then we may witness a rally (green Channel Up) similar to the one that peaked on November 2021 and reached the 2.618 Fibonacci extension. As a result, setting a $350 Target would be more than realistic based on this pattern.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
💸💸💸💸💸💸
👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Kohl's and the potential for being the next Squeeze game!A short squeeze happens when a heavily shorted stock’s price rises sharply, forcing short sellers to buy back shares to cover their positions, which drives the price even higher. Key ingredients include high short interest, a low float, and a catalyst (like strong earnings, news, or retail investor frenzy). Let’s look at Kohl’s through this lens:
Short Interest: As of early April 2025, Kohl’s had a short interest of about 49 million shares, or roughly 61.44% of its float, which is high compared to its peers (average peer short interest is around 8.4%). High short interest is a prerequisite for a squeeze, as it means there’s a lot of potential buying pressure if shorts need to cover. However, this alone isn’t enough—GameStop’s 2021 squeeze had short interest over 100% at its peak, so Kohl’s is notable but not extreme.
Float and Liquidity: Kohl’s float (shares available for trading) is decently sized, which can dilute the impact of a squeeze compared to a small-cap stock with a tiny float. A larger float means it takes more buying volume to move the price significantly, making a squeeze harder to sustain unless there’s massive coordinated interest.
Recent Price Action: Kohl’s stock jumped 8% to $7.17 on April 7, 2025, with above-average volume, driven by optimism around inventory and expense management. But it’s also been volatile, with a 31% drop after cautious 2025 guidance and a 75% dividend cut earlier in March. The low price ($7-ish) makes it accessible to retail traders, who often fuel meme-driven squeezes, but it also reflects weak fundamentals, which can deter sustained buying.
Catalysts: There’s no clear catalyst right now. Kohl’s is closing 27 stores by April 2025, signaling struggles in brick-and-mortar retail. Analyst sentiment is mixed—Bank of America sees challenges in rebuilding sales, and
Market Context: Recent market volatility, driven by tariff fears and a 10%+ S&P 500 drop, has boosted short sellers’ profits broadly ($159 billion in six days). This suggests shorts are confident, and Kohl’s, with its retail exposure, could stay under pressure unless something disrupts the bearish narrative. A short-covering rally could happen if broader market sentiment shifts, but Kohl’s fundamentals (declining sales, earnings revisions down 94%) don’t scream “bullish.”
Counterpoints: Kohl’s short interest has actually fallen 9.98% recently, suggesting some shorts are already covering, which could reduce squeeze potential. Also, department stores like Macy’s and JCPenney are struggling too, so Kohl’s isn’t uniquely positioned for a breakout. Retail investor coordination (like on Reddit or X) would need to ramp up significantly, and there’s no evidence of that scale yet.
Conclusion: Kohl’s has some ingredients for a short squeeze—high short interest and a low stock price—but it lacks a strong catalyst and the kind of retail frenzy needed to ignite one. Its fundamentals are shaky, and recent news (store closures, dividend cuts) leans bearish. It’s a stock to watch if you’re into high-risk plays, but it’s not screaming “next GameStop” right now. Always dig into the numbers and consider the broader market—things can shift quickly.
4/14/25 - $bmi - Just too expensive4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BMI
Just too expensive
- over 35x PE and almost 3% cf yield for MSD growth?
- great biz, but do you think their supply chain won't be affected by the IRL stuff we're trading daily?
- still a name to own LT, but just don't think you can buy this print. it's up... you probably sell the pop. it's down and you can't DCA it.
- i'd have to see it *a lot * lower in this environment to compete w/ the other stuff i like a lot
V
Genuine Parts: 69 Years of Growth Hits a Key Technical ZoneHi all,
Genuine Parts has raised its dividend for 69 consecutive years, making it the second company in the world to achieve this milestone. Companies with a track record of increasing dividends for 50+ consecutive years are called Dividend Kings. At the top of the list is American States Water, with an impressive 70-year streak.
This means Genuine Parts has witnessed every major S&P 500 crash, and much more, yet has continued to raise its dividend year after year.
Technically, the stock has now reached, or more precisely, touched, a strong support zone that consists of multiple key factors:
1. A long-term trendline
2. The round number at $100
3. Previous yearly highs that now act as support
4. A 50% retracement from the all-time high, landing right in the marked zone
5. A channel projection
6. An equal waves setup
7. The Fibonacci Golden Ratio
8. The monthly EMA200
Do your homework because fundamental numbers matter. If the fundamentals align with your bias, then from a technical standpoint, you won’t find a more substantial confluence zone on this chart.
Cheers,
Vaido
4/14/25 - $alv - Good biz, but not for me4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: XETR:ALV
Good biz, but not for me
- over 5% fcf
- autonomous won't disrupt this biz and it's established
- still growing
- good chart
- just the wrong tape to start playing small size on prints, and i'm more curious how the co speaks about the guide/ outlook
- this is on my radar, but tbh, i'd require a bigger discount to add the small line to my PnL ($75)
- would be a dip buy on an okay result but stock down
- not a short, prob a buy, but meh.
V
Potential Downtrend in JPMorgan JPMorgan Chase has rallied sharply in recent sessions, but some traders may see downside risk.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the series of lower highs and lower lows since mid-February. JPM is returning near the top of that descending channel. Could another lower high result?
Second, JPM is potentially stalling at the March 31 low of $237.36. Old support may have become new resistance.
Third, prices are stalling around the 21-day exponential moving average.
Next, economic sentiment has recently deteriorated. Mortgage rates are higher, consumer credit growth has slowed, business surveys have missed estimates and confidence measures have weakened. JPM responded by hiking loan-loss reserves in its latest quarterly report. Continuation of those trends may drag on the megabank’s fundamentals.
Finally, JPM is a highly active underlier in the options market, trading about 125,000 contracts per session in the last month. (It ranks 18th in the S&P 500, according to TradeStation data.) That could help traders take positions with calls and puts.
TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. If you're born to trade, we could be for you. See our Overview for more.
Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors.
Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges.
Options trading is not suitable for all investors. Your TradeStation Securities’ account application to trade options will be considered and approved or disapproved based on all relevant factors, including your trading experience. See www.TradeStation.com . Visit www.TradeStation.com for full details on the costs and fees associated with options.
Margin trading involves risks, and it is important that you fully understand those risks before trading on margin. The Margin Disclosure Statement outlines many of those risks, including that you can lose more funds than you deposit in your margin account; your brokerage firm can force the sale of securities in your account; your brokerage firm can sell your securities without contacting you; and you are not entitled to an extension of time on a margin call. Review the Margin Disclosure Statement at www.TradeStation.com .
TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means.
Broadcom Approaches Major Resistance
Broadcom has rebounded +30% off its March lows, recovering from recent weakness.
The stock is currently testing the 200-day moving average ( around 183) but has so far failed to break above it.
It now faces a confluence of resistance near $185 — a key level to monitor for potential rejection or breakout.
4/14/25 - $bac - not a short but prefer jpm/gs4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:BAC
not a short but prefer jpm/gs
- defn more of a focus for me on financials this year, which have some distinct advantages to other industry, in many ways you can think of them as the "picks and shovels" of the MAGA agenda. they r nearest to money printer. the stocks have held up well. co's needing WC help will benefit this subset of companies etc. etc.
- but for now i much prefer to keep to winners and honestly the multiple difference between BAC and say GS aren't that much different. perhaps 50% on P/B fine - bc they're diff animals and GS has substantially higher mgn of safety on this rate of return etc. et.c
- let's see. i'm on the sidelines. i'd own the basket of financials. more curious on how they report.
V
4/14/25 - $gs - A buy4/14/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:GS
A buy
- 1.5x book w/ mid teens ROEs.
- 11x PE
- great result
- financials will do well in this environment
- not a tariff punching bag
- all the financial services should supplement IPO/ IB issues in the ST
- trying to keep cash high
- but you could get 3% yield on a 2 week expiry at $500 stirke
- or cash secured puts for about 2% yield on the week $500 strike
- but for now i'm just playing other stuff
- though i'd like to dip buy this on the next sell off if/when bc i'd like to start growing financials exposure in my book this year (which i think does well in this environment)
V
Pop and Flop in GOOGL?Google recently staged a sharp rebound, filling the gap perfectly after a major sell-off driven by tariff-related headlines. While I had personally expected a deeper move into the $137.36–$135.41 range, price found strong buying interest earlier than anticipated.
The area we bounced from is significant—it's essentially the origin of the move that led to Google’s all-time high in 2024. However, despite the bounce, GOOGL has lost support across all timeframes , which shifts my focus toward potential short opportunities.
I’m now watching for a reaction around the support-turned-resistance zone near $164 . There’s an untested monthly level at $161.72 , which could trigger a reaction, but the area I’m really eyeing is the weekly resistance zone from $164 to $165.87 . I believe this range could act as a strong reversal zone and spark a deeper pullback.
If that rejection plays out, here are the levels I’m watching for downside targets:
- Target 1: $157.04 (daily support zone)
- Target 2: $146.75 (leg end and major weekly swing low from September 2024)
- Target 3: $141.55 (previous leg low)
- Final Target: New lows below $140.00
This short setup was far more appealing before the recent bounce off the $140 zone, so I will remain cautious. However, if price starts reacting from this resistance zone and breaks back below the monthly at $161.72 —or even more convincingly, the local daily support at $160.67 —that would trigger confirmation for continuation to the downside.
Invalidation levels:
- A weekly close above $165.03
- A daily close above $170.60
Either of those would invalidate the short thesis.
WC: 26.40 Target: 1800-2400 MOASS: 47k-100K: Prepare YourselfWhat a WILD ride the markets have been on since Nov 2024 but more specifically the last couple weeks
All things considered GME has held up EXCEPTIONALLY well in what is an extremely uncertain and murky trading environment
So what now?
Now is the time to PREPARE and be sure you have a tight trading plan for what is most likely coming next: MOASS
I highly advise you revisit the below videos:
(listen to the piece on PROPER TRADING EXPECTATIONS)
P.S. Looking for THE CAT to make an appearance next weekend
GOOD TRADING TO YOU ALL!
BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (2 hours chart, NASDAQ) - LongBRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (2 hours chart, NASDAQ) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {volume structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 2.38
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 519
Entry limit ~ 517 on April 11, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 532 (+2.90%; +15 points)
2. Target limit ~ 536 (+3.68%; +19 points)
Stop order limit ~ 509 (-1.55%; -8 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented here is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
TSLA 4H Analysis: Technical Outlook1. Price Structure and Trend:
TSLA has been in a clear downtrend since January 2025, dropping from ~$475 to a key support at ~$258. The price is currently consolidating at this level, hinting at a potential pause or reversal.
2. Support and Resistance Levels:
• Support: $258 (current level, with multiple bounces).
• Resistance: $300 (next significant zone, based on prior consolidation).
3. Volatility and Squeeze Indicators:
The "Volatility Squeeze" indicator (on the right) shows red and blue bars. Recent red bars signal a squeeze (low volatility), often preceding sharp moves. The shift to blue bars suggests volatility may be increasing.
4. Action Signals:
• "X" markers (blue and orange) highlight potential entry/exit points. Recent orange "X" marks at the $258 support could indicate a buying opportunity if the price confirms a bounce.
• If support breaks, the next level to watch is ~$225 (previous lows).
5. Conclusion:
TSLA is at a critical juncture. A bounce from $258 could target $300, but a breakdown might lead to $225. Keep an eye on volume and volatility for confirmation. What's your take?
Here is the link to the indicator
HOOD Tariff Relief dips to buy: $41.28 strong, 39.42 better longHOOD got sold in panic then bought in fomo.
We of the Fib Faith indulge in logical serenity.
We plan and execute calmly and deliberately.
$ 41.28 Bounce would be strong to target $49.16
$ 39.48 better entry with tp1=$45.44, tp2=$49.16
$ 37.12 is a must hold or else it was a bull trap.
==============================================