$WRB with a bullish outlook following its earnings #StocksThe PEAD projected a bullish outlook for NYSE:WRB after a negative under reaction following its earnings release placing the stock in drift D with an expected accuracy of 60%.
NVDA - Cup and HandleNVIDIA (NVDA) has recently shown a "cup and handle" pattern, a bullish signal often indicating potential for a price breakout. This pattern, with a rounded "cup" followed by a consolidation "handle," suggests the stock could be primed for an upward move, making it attractive for long positions.
Several factors support this technical setup. NVIDIA has shown strong year-to-date returns, demonstrating resilience and investor interest. Additionally, with its upcoming inclusion in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the stock may see increased inflows from index-tracking funds, adding further upward pressure. These technical and fundamental aspects combined create a favorable outlook for long positions in NVDA.
ILMN Illumina Options Ahead of Earnings Analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ILMN Illumina prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 140usd strike price in the money Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-12-20,
for a premium of approximately $16.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 472.5usd strike price Puts with
an expiration date of 2024-11-8,
for a premium of approximately $14.00.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Technical Review - Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) Agape ATP Corporation (ATPC) is showing promising signs of a potential upward breakout as it consolidates within a steady range, with strong support observed at $1.50. This level has consistently attracted buyers, reinforcing confidence and creating a solid foundation for a bullish move. Should the price continue to hold above this point, it indicates healthy accumulation, positioning ATPC for potential growth.
On the upside, $2.00 has emerged as the primary resistance level, but recent price action suggests a brewing momentum to break through this barrier. A successful move beyond $2.00, especially if accompanied by an increase in trading volume, would signal a breakout, opening up a pathway to $2.50. This resistance level serves as the next target, where a surge could propel the stock into a new trading range, attracting more bullish interest.
Supporting this outlook, the technical indicators add strength to the bullish case. While the MACD reflects a steady buying interest, the MCDX Plus shows signs of accumulation with increasing momentum in the green zone. This suggests that buyers are building up positions, indicating underlying strength that could fuel a significant rally once the $2.00 level is breached.
In summary, ATPC is primed for a bullish breakout, with a solid support base at $1.50 and clear resistance at $2.00. Investors should keep an eye on the volume and momentum indicators, as a sustained move above $2.00 could lead to further gains towards $2.50 and beyond.
BBAI BigBear ai Holdings Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of BBAI BigBear ai Holdings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 2usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.40.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CLOV Clover Health Investments Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CLOV Clover Health Investments prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 5usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $0.51.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
GILD Gilead Sciences Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of GILD Gilead Sciences prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 89usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $2.91.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
ET Energy Transfer Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of ET Energy Transfer prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 16.50usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.22.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
CGC Canopy Growth Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsAnalyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of CGC Canopy Growth Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 8usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-6-20,
for a premium of approximately $0.70.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
11/4/24 - $tdc - another Q from the sidelines 4 me11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:TDC
another Q from the sidelines 4 me
- in "theory" these guys can do >$300 mm of FCF on EV of mid 3's billion which is "great" yield.
- But... and probably with two T's...
- The market is simply having a tough time buying growth sub 10%, nevermind mid singles, and especially declining growth.
- While a quarter can change a lot, esp wrt guidance/ outlook etc. and that's an important caveat, in a week like this one where we have a 4-year catalyst which will probably create some wild waves, this stonk simply isn't a good R/R, layup or obvious to me (even the obvious plays in my portfolio aren't obvious ST!!)
- so i bid you good luck if you own this thing. i struggle to understand if i'd even buy a dip on a miss (probably not), and we've seen stuff that misses getting sent to Hades in a Burkin
- also the perma-bid from last quarter's big drop in a straightline fashion is hellasketch. this tells me a. someone knows it's worth buying (and i can't see this ^ per the above comments), or b. there's some weird MM stuff going on to find bids before they send it... again... lower. i don't want to guess. so i just watch.
V
OCGN Ocugen Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought OCGN during the Covid pandemic:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of OCGN Ocugen prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 1usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-11-15,
for a premium of approximately $0.08.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution
Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion
Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option
Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution
The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance.
Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings.
Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations.
Segment Highlights
The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline.
Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher.
Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health.
Market Context
Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards.
Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns.
The 2008 Playbook
Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash.
During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous.
The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks.
Investment Risks
A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment.
Final Thoughts
Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow.
Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire!
What do you think moonypto fam?
DKNG DraftKings Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought DKNG before the rally:
Now analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of DKNG DraftKings prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 40usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2025-1-17,
for a premium of approximately $1.94.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
11/4/24 - $inta - Pass at $50, R/R unclear11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:INTA
Pass at $50, R/R unclear
- nothing i'd fade, growing flexing gross profit vs opex
- also tech B2B have put up good reactions to results all else equal so far this 3Q
- but stonk has gone from low 30s where I punted last Q to ~almost~ doubling. obvioulsy i traded out of this and recycled capital etc. etc. not surprised it kept riding, but so high? a bit surprised.
- don't love fact that stock comp remains high amt of "FCF" though again for stonks that go up, it's less an issue. nonetheless, it's still not real cash earned IMVVHO
- also adjusting for this SBC, PE of near 80x next year and 60x the following remains high.
- i'd rather watch this pitch go by
- a lot of names reporting (and i mean A LOT) this week in perhaps one of the funkiest risk weeks (team blueberry vs. team raspberry gonna have a jam fest). see no reason to punt at these levels, that's all.
- gl to all.
V
Long REKRProbability Calculation for REKR Reaching $2
Estimated Probability: 75-80%
Breakdown of Contributing Factors:
1. Technical Analysis Indicators (35-40%)
Support Levels: The stock is currently trading near a significant support zone that has held in the past, increasing the likelihood of a bounce or upward movement.
RSI Divergence: The presence of a bullish RSI divergence suggests weakening selling momentum and a potential for trend reversal.
Trendline Resistance: If the stock breaks above the current downtrend line, it could signal a bullish shift and make $2 a realistic target.
2. Historical Price Movements and Patterns (20-25%)
Past Rebounds: Historical data shows that REKR has managed to bounce back from similar technical setups, supporting the probability of an upward move.
Price Action: Recent movements indicate that the stock is capable of achieving significant price increases under favorable conditions.
3. Fundamental and Market Information (20-25%)
Revenue Growth: The expected 54.2% year-over-year increase in revenue to $14.06 million indicates strong business expansion.
Insider Confidence: Insider buying activity and significant contracts secured by Rekor support a positive outlook and suggest insider confidence in the company’s future.
4. Short Interest Data (15-20%)
High Short Interest: The current short interest of 15.95 million shares, or 18.02% of outstanding shares, signals significant bearish sentiment but also provides potential for a short squeeze.
Days to Cover: With a short interest ratio of 17.8 days, any positive news or upward momentum could lead to a short squeeze, rapidly increasing the stock price as short sellers rush to cover their positions.
Increase in Short Interest: The 8.28% increase in short interest over the past month indicates rising skepticism but also raises the potential for a sudden upward movement if market sentiment shifts.
Combined Probability Assessment:
Technical Analysis and Historical Patterns contribute a solid base estimate of 55-65% probability for reaching $2.
Fundamental Strengths, including revenue growth and insider buying, support an additional 20-25%.
Short Interest and Potential for a Short Squeeze add 15-20%, reflecting the possibility of a rapid upward move due to short-covering dynamics.
Final Estimate: By combining these factors, the overall estimated probability for REKR reaching $2 is 75-80%. This reflects the strong potential based on technical signals, underlying business strengths, and the possibility of a short squeeze, balanced with the risks inherent in the current bearish sentiment and market conditions.
AMD scenarioToday we are in a distinctly upward trend, we set a high and now we are correcting in a corrective way to the 0.5 areas of the trend (Fibonacci) + to interesting liquidity areas.
In my opinion, we will receive a continuation of declines according to the scenario I drew - in my estimation, the distribution of dividends at the beginning of 2025 will bring in smart money - we will receive a decline into buying and then we will begin to build long-term positions up to an all-time high.
NVIDIA scenarioA clear trend, connecting with the Nasdaq and Bitcoin - price behavior that I like very much!
Entrances for investments only and not for scalp/swing trades.
Handmade ProfitsEtsy is gaining bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $50.00 level. A break above the $58.00 resistance would signal further strength, positioning the stock to reach the $67.50 weekly resistance. With an attractive risk-to-reward setup, this trade offers a favorable opportunity, while a $45.00 stop-loss effectively manages downside risk.
In the longer term, ETSY has the potential to reach $89.59, driven by strong fundamentals. As a leader in the online marketplace for unique and handmade goods, Etsy is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of e-commerce. With a loyal customer base and innovative platform features, Etsy is poised to capture an expanding market share, supporting both near-term momentum and longer-term growth.
This combination of technical momentum and strong market fundamentals supports a bullish push toward $67.50, with $89.59 as an achievable longer-term target.
NASDAQ:ETSY
Warren Buffett Moves to CashWarren Buffett Moves to Cash
On August 30, when the price of Berkshire Hathaway's Class B shares (BRK.B) surpassed $465, we noted that:
→ the stock was forming an ascending channel (shown in blue);
→ as the price neared $475, the likelihood of a slowdown in the bullish trend increased.
Since then (indicated by the arrow):
→ the price hit the upper channel boundary,
→ reversed downward after briefly exceeding $475,
→ and dropped to around $455 by November 1, when Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway reported Q3 earnings.
Analyst forecasts were close to the report’s actual figures:
→ Earnings per share: forecast = $4.9, actual = $4.7.
→ Revenue: forecast = $92.2 billion, actual = $92.9 billion.
→ Berkshire Hathaway’s investment income more than doubled year-over-year, reaching $3.5 billion for the quarter.
Meanwhile, some noteworthy news includes:
→ Berkshire significantly reduced its Apple (AAPL) holdings and refrained from new investments, even as stock indexes hover near historical highs.
→ Cash reserves reached a record $325 billion.
This has led to speculation that Buffett may believe:
→ stock prices are overvalued;
→ a market correction could be imminent.
Interestingly, Berkshire Hathaway is also holding off on buybacks—could Buffett be expecting a further price drop?
Technical analysis of the BRK.B chart suggests:
→ The price has fallen into the lower half of the blue channel, which remains relevant.
→ It’s possible that after a bearish reversal from $475 at the upper channel boundary, the stock has been in a correction phase since September (indicated by red lines), resembling the period from February 26 to July 10.
Traders may want to watch for demand around:
→ $445 (previous resistance in July),
→ the lower boundary of the ascending channel.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Nu Holdings (NU) AnalysisCompany Overview: Nu Holdings NYSE:NU , a leading digital bank in Latin America, is rapidly expanding its footprint across the region, leveraging innovative fintech solutions to drive growth in underbanked markets. With a mission to offer simple and accessible financial services, Nu Holdings continues to strengthen its presence, especially in key markets like Mexico and Colombia.
Key Developments:
Expansion in Latin America: Nu has successfully launched checking accounts in Mexico and Colombia, showcasing strong customer demand. The company has attracted $3.3 billion in deposits in Mexico and $220 million in Colombia, underscoring its ability to effectively penetrate new markets. This expansion opens up significant growth potential for Nu, as the digital banking revolution in Latin America continues to gather momentum.
Strong Customer Engagement: Nu's active user base continues to grow, with an impressive record-high activity rate of 83%, marking the 11th consecutive increase in user engagement. This high level of customer activity demonstrates Nu's ability to retain and engage its users, a crucial factor for long-term profitability in the fintech sector.
Accelerating Revenue & Profitability: In addition to customer growth, Nu has shown consistent acceleration in revenue and profitability, solidifying its position as a top contender in the fintech space. The company's unique combination of digital banking services, credit offerings, and low-cost structure sets it apart from traditional banks and other fintech competitors.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on NU above the $13.50-$14.00 range, driven by its successful market expansion, strong customer engagement, and accelerating financial performance. Upside Potential: Our price target for Nu Holdings is set at $23.00-$24.00, reflecting its potential for continued regional growth and increasing profitability as it scales operations across Latin America.
🚀 NU—Transforming Banking Across Latin America! #FintechGrowth #LatAmBanking #DigitalRevolution
Coinbase (COIN) AnalysisCompany Overview: Coinbase NASDAQ:COIN is one of the largest and most recognized cryptocurrency exchanges globally, offering a wide range of services, from retail trading to institutional crypto solutions. The company has focused on strengthening its position in the crypto ecosystem by targeting both retail and institutional investors.
Key Developments:
Institutional Adoption & BlackRock Partnership: Coinbase’s strategic partnership with BlackRock allows Aladdin clients to access cryptocurrency trading and custody services via Coinbase Prime, which caters to institutional investors. This partnership has the potential to drive significant institutional capital into the platform, thereby increasing transaction volumes and boosting revenue.
Diversification Efforts: Coinbase has successfully reduced its dependence on trading fees by growing its subscription and services revenue, which saw a 34% year-over-year increase in Q2 2023. This revenue diversification helps mitigate the impact of the volatile trading environment often seen in the cryptocurrency space.
Regulatory Compliance: With regulatory scrutiny tightening across the crypto industry, Coinbase’s strong focus on compliance gives it a competitive advantage. As regulatory hurdles increase, the company is likely to capture market share from less compliant competitors, positioning itself as a trusted platform in an evolving regulatory landscape.
Product Innovation: Coinbase continues to innovate with new offerings like the Ethereum layer-2 network and enhanced staking services. These product launches not only enhance Coinbase’s competitive edge but also position the company well for future growth in decentralized finance (DeFi) and staking markets.
Investment Outlook: Bullish Outlook: We are bullish on COIN above the $180.00-$185.00 range, driven by institutional adoption, diversification of revenue streams, and strong regulatory positioning. Upside Potential: Our price target for Coinbase is set at $370.00-$375.00, reflecting its potential to capture more institutional market share and sustain growth through innovative product offerings.
🚀 COIN—Leading the Way in Institutional Crypto Adoption! #CryptoInnovation #InstitutionalAdoption #CryptoCompliance
