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FNV has reached a key resistance around 158.2FNV has reached a key resistance around 158.2. There are two factors suggesting a continuation of the upward trend: Prolonged Sideways Movement: The stock has been trading sideways for an extended period, and this time, the 158.2 level is more likely to be broken. Robust Upward Momentum: The recent upward move toward the key resistance appears strong and persistent, indicating buying interest. However, there are some cautionary signs: Significant YTD Increase: The stock has risen considerably this year, driven by a sharp increase in gold prices. Historical Return Limits: FNV has almost reached the 70th percentile of its historical returns, suggesting that the potential upside may be limited to around 20% based on past performance. Resistance-Induced Selling Pressure: Reaching a key resistance level could trigger selling as investors take profits. Overall Conclusion: While FNV shows signs of potential upward continuation due to strong momentum and a prolonged consolidation period, the limited upside based on historical returns and the risk of profit-taking at a key resistance level warrant caution. A breakout above 158.2 could signal further gains, but the room for upside may be relatively modest. Monitoring for confirmation before entering new positions or considering partial profit-taking on existing holdings would be a prudent approach.
NYSE:FNV
by Quantific-Solutions
Googl.. where we standMy last post on googl (See below) I showed you the rising wedge on googl at 200.. 25% later here we are.. This is a long term view. This the great reset back to the primary trendline.. This is logarithmic, logarithmic or log scale comes in handy to chart stocks or indexes that have made a parabolic move . Here's the monthly trend As you can see , with exception of the covid pump googl has respected this trend.. Now we are heading back to support. Since 2009 googl has never broken it's monthly 50 SMA. The monthly 50 SMA + the long term trendline is around 128-135.00 Throw in a Fibonacci level from ATH and 2020 lows and you get a 50% retracement That's my long term by zone for googl.. I wouldn't buy this stock until the 130's I will update this later today with some actual tradeable analysis, this was just a long term view
NASDAQ:GOOGL
by ContraryTrader
9
Convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17Yo traders - Let’s map out a convexity-based trade scenario using LOAR stock and the April 17, 2025 $75 Call option — currently trading at $1.00, with the stock at $65.97 and only 18 days to expiry. 🔍 Step-by-Step Breakdown: 🧠 1. Basic Structure You’re buying the LOAR Apr17 $75 call at $1.00. This is a deep OTM bet (~13.7% above current price). You’re betting on a short-term move to $75+, meaning volatility spike or news catalyst. ⚙️ 2. Convexity Setup Convexity means: Small risk, asymmetric reward If LOAR stays flat or dips → you lose $1 per contract If LOAR rips to $80+ → this option could return 5x to 10x+ LOAR Price at Expiry Option Intrinsic Value Profit/Loss $66 (flat) $0 -$1.00 $70 $0 -$1.00 $75 (strike) $0 -$1.00 $77 $2.00 +$1.00 $80 $5.00 +$4.00 (5x) $85 $10.00 +$9.00 (9x) 🧾 3. Chart + Sentiment Setup Looking at the TradingView chart: Price Action: LOAR is basing around $66 after a steep downtrend — potential reversal pattern Volume is light, but some buy pressure is visible MACD: Appears to be flattening and potentially crossing bullish RSI: ~40s: Oversold-to-neutral zone. Could support upward bounce. Earnings coming up (E icon): Strong potential for a catalyst move This setup enhances convexity, because earnings can produce gap moves that DOTM options profit from disproportionately. 🔮 4. Convexity Scenario Thesis (Narrative) "LOAR has pulled back hard and is showing signs of base-building. Earnings are in 2–3 weeks. If guidance surprises to the upside — or macro tailwinds hit the sector — a short squeeze or re-rating toward $75–80 could occur. I’m risking $1 per contract for a shot at $5–10. If it doesn’t move, I accept the full loss." This is a classic event-driven convexity play. ⚠️ 5. Risks & Considerations Time decay is brutal: With only 18 days left, theta decay accelerates daily IV Crush post-earnings could hurt even if the stock moves You need a fast, strong move, ideally before or at earnings Position sizing is critical: This is a "lottery ticket" — don’t over-allocate ✅ 6. Ideal for Your Strategy If: You're making many small bets like this across tickers/catalysts You’re not trying to be “right” often, but “big” occasionally You have capital discipline and uncorrelated base assets 🧮 Position Size: Option price = $1.00 per contract You buy 100 contracts of the $75 call Total risk = $100 Each $1.00 move above $75 = $100 profit per $1, since 100 contracts × 100 shares/contract = 10,000 shares exposure 📈 Upside Payoff Table LOAR Price at Expiry Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 $1.00 $1 × 10,000 = $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Interpretation Max Loss: $100 (fixed, regardless of LOAR's move down or sideways) Breakeven at Expiry: LOAR must hit $76.00 10x return if LOAR trades just $1 above strike Massive asymmetry — you risk $100 for a shot at $10k–250k if LOAR rips on earnings or news. 📌 Real-World Considerations: You might exit early if the option spikes in value before expiry (e.g., stock runs to $72 with 5 days left). Liquidity may limit large size fills. Volatility matters: IV spike pre-earnings or a big gap post-earnings increases your chance of profit. 📊 Convex Payoff Table for LOAR Apr17 $75 Call (100 Contracts, $100 Risk) LOAR Price at Expiry % Move from $65.97 Intrinsic Value Total Payoff Net P&L Return on $100 $65–$74.99 0% to +13.6% $0.00 $0 -$100 -100% $76 +15.2% $1.00 $10,000 +$9,900 +9,900% $77 +17.0% $2.00 $20,000 +$19,900 +19,900% $80 +21.3% $5.00 $50,000 +$49,900 +49,900% $85 +28.9% $10.00 $100,000 +$99,900 +99,900% $90 +36.4% $15.00 $150,000 +$149,900 +149,900% $100 +51.6% $25.00 $250,000 +$249,900 +249,900% 🧠 Takeaway: Even a 15% move turns your $100 into $10,000 — this is why convex trades are so powerful. But the trade-off is probability: the odds of a 15–50%+ move in 18 days are low, which is why risk is capped and position sizing matters.
NYSE:LOAREducation
by TheHouseofTrade
JetBlue Airways (JBLU) – Technical Analysis 1WJetBlue shares have broken a key weekly trendline, reinforcing a bearish outlook. After breaking support at $5.21, the price is heading toward $4.52 and potentially $3.41. Technical indicators confirm the weakness: RSI shows declining momentum, MACD signals a bearish crossover, and EMA 50/200 indicate sustained selling pressure. Fundamentally, the airline sector faces macroeconomic instability, rising Fed rates, and volatile fuel prices. A close below $5.21 will confirm the downtrend, targeting $4.52 and $3.41, while a recovery above $6.44 could signal a potential rebound.
NASDAQ:JBLUShort
by TotoshkaTrades
Target 95 let me explain, congested a lot of detail swing stateThe Fibonacci retrace and sideways swing indicate that the stock likes to come back around this area, from where it currently is at the resistance fib, with a liquidity sweep candle, stopping in the buffer zone. A volume slowdown dictates a crashing move up before volatility winters it down significantly. It is one of the more realistically sideways swinging stocks of 25, and based on the parallels and colorful detail, I anticipate this to be my chart of the week, with no surprises!
NASDAQ:MULong
by themoneyman80
1
TESLA: Key Days! NASDAQ Bottoms and TESLA Breaking Out!!Everyone is thinking about today, about how difficult it is to know whether a stock will rise or fall since Trump came to power!!! :-). On April 2nd, many things will become clear after the official publication of the tariffs, but it's true that with a person like Trump in power, ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN in the future!! As with any investment, you have to analyze all the variables that could affect its performance. Today we'll analyze TESLA!! , one of the hardest hit in the American market, mainly due to TRUMP!!! , FOR BEING TRUMP'S FRIEND!! :-). --> What does TESLA have AGAINST IT? 1) TARIFFS: If Trump punishes countries around the world with tariffs, they (mainly China) will fight back!! , and the one that WILL BE PUNISHED THE MOST will be TESLA for Elon Musk being in power alongside Trump. 2) CHINESE ELECTRIC CARS: The competition is clear! There are Chinese vehicle companies that will compete strongly with Tesla, mainly due to price, although from my point of view, Tesla will win because Tesla is a brand of reliability, while Chinese companies are not. 3) NASDAQ: If the US enters a recession or decline, all technology will fall sharply, and with it, obviously, Tesla. --> But what STRENGTHS does it have? 1) ELON MUSK IN POWER IN THE USA: We all know Elon Musk! And once in power, he will take full advantage of it to strengthen his companies in the coming months/years. 2) TESLA: New Tesla models and the world's most efficient batteries, in addition to the release of its first line of MOBILE PHONES, which we're all sure will be IMPRESSIVE!! 3) 40% YEAR-ROUND DROP: The sharp decline accumulated through 2025 makes this a company with GREAT appreciation potential, and at the slightest bit of good news, it will rise sharply. With these PROS and CONS, we now have the variables outside of mathematics that could affect the value. Now it's time for TECHNICAL ANALYSIS, and for that, I've published two charts: the one above for TESLA on a H1 timeframe and the one below for the NASDAQ on a H4 timeframe. Why the one for the NASDAQ? Because you always have to analyze the direction of the INDEX, since a global drop in technology would drag down the company even if the technicals were favorable. ---> How do you view the NASDAQ? The Nasdaq is clearly bearish in a key support zone for its future. It must not lose its current zone, and in the event of an upward rebound, it will form a bottom and signal a bullish (bullish) signal for the index in the coming weeks/months, causing all technology to rise sharply. --> How is Tesla doing? Tesla's outlook is better than the NASDAQ's, as it is entering a zone with intentions of breaking out higher! If Tesla surpasses 293, it will end the bearish phase it has been in since the beginning of the year and begin a bullish recovery phase. Therefore, if the NASDAQ bottoms out! When Tesla surpasses 293, we will go long without hesitation! -------------------------------------- Strategy to follow: ENTRY: We will open 2 long positions if the H4 candle closes above 293. POSITION 1 (TP1): We close the first position in the 325 zone (+11%) --> Stop Loss at 242 (-17%). POSITION 2 (TP2): We open a Trailing Stop position. --> Initial trailing stop loss at (-17%) (coinciding with the 242 level of position 1). --> We modify the trailing stop loss to (-1%) when the price reaches TP1 (293). ------------------------------------------- SETUP EXPLANATIONS *** How do I know which 2 long positions to open? Let's take an example: If we want to invest €2,000 in the stock, we divide that amount by 2, and instead of opening one position of €2,000, we'll open two positions of €1,000 each. *** What is a Trailing Stop? A Trailing Stop allows a trade to continue gaining value when the market price moves in a favorable direction, but it automatically closes the trade if the market price suddenly moves in an unfavorable direction by a specified distance. This specified distance is the trailing Stop Loss. --> Example: If the trailing Stop Loss is at -1%, it means that if the price drops by -1%, the position will be closed. If the price rises, the Stop Loss also rises to maintain that -1% during increases. Therefore, the risk decreases until the position enters a profit. This way, you can take advantage of very strong and stable price trends, maximizing profits.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by jmesado