DOCU Earnings Setup – IV Heavy, Bearish Skew, Max Pain Below📉 DOCU Earnings Setup – IV Heavy, Bearish Skew, Max Pain Below 👇
🗓️ Earnings: June 5, 2025 (AMC) | ⏳ Expiry: June 6, 2025 (1D)
🎯 Strategy: Low-cost short-dated put targeting downside surprise
🔍 Multi-Model Consensus Summary
Model View Strike Premium Confidence Notes
Grok/xAI Moderately Bearish 93P 4.15 70% BE $88.85, high IV
Claude Moderately Bearish 91P 3.20 65% Max pain $89
Gemini Moderately Bearish 87P 1.77 65% BE $85.23, value setup
Llama Neutral / No Trade – – <60% Elevated IV, no edge
DeepSeek Bearish / No Trade – – <60% IV crush concern
⚙️ Setup Breakdown
Historical Move Range: ±8–12%
Implied Move: ±9.17% (~$8.60)
Price Position: $93.84, extended above 20MA
Volume: 1.64× average
IV Rank: 75th percentile → expect 40% IV crush post-earnings
Max Pain: $89 → downside magnet
Put/Call Skew: Bearish tilt (1.37), high flow at $84/$105
📈 Trade Setup (Short-Term Swing Put)
Parameter Value
Instrument DOCU
Direction PUT (SHORT)
Strike $87.00
Expiry 2025-06-06
Entry Price $1.77 (ask)
Breakeven $85.23
Profit Target $3.10 (75% gain)
Stop Loss $0.89 (50% loss)
Confidence 65%
Position Size 1 contract (~3% capital)
Entry Timing Before earnings close (6/5)
Exit Timing Next-day open (6/6)
⚠️ Key Risks
🟢 Strong beat or guidance → upside gap
⚫ IV Crush → premium collapse despite small drop
🟠 Broader tech strength could override stock-specific weakness
🔵 Put spread resistance near $84–$85 could slow downside
🧠 Final Take
DOCU is overextended into earnings, with elevated volatility and max pain $5 below spot. Most models lean moderately bearish, and the $87 put at $1.77 offers a favorable mix of premium, liquidity, and setup alignment. Risk/reward justifies taking the shot here—tight risk, high upside potential.
