Target $95-125 entry for LT investmentTechnicals and Fundamentals
- Divergence marked the top
- 50-60% pull-backs common --> $95 or $120
- Revenue growing YoY (and backlog is not fully dependent on Ukraine)
- Broke below 3-year trendline since 2022 lows, next long-term trendline support at 9-year trendline (also near $95)
- 30-40% gross margins. Lower Net income margins (as investing in growth: acquiring Blue Halo, building new facility in Salt Lake City)
Headwinds:
- Watch March 4th earnings. I expect disappointment (per Ukraine/US difficulties)
- Dependent on government purchases "you only have 1 customer in this market" - CEO quote. This is concerning in light of DOGE. However, AVAV could be a winner of shift to UAVs (and cheaper warfare technology in general)
Investment Thesis:
AVAV is investing in the future with M&A and construction of new facilities. It's revenue is growing steadily and the firm has high future earnings potential. The stock is down big from the war 'bubble' popping, but history shows 50-60% corrections are common, which would align with technical support at or above ~$95. Therefore, I see this move downward as a great buying opportunity for long-term (5+ year) investments. Will target entries $95-125, with focus around 200W MA.