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Economy

Global liquidity breakoutA weighted sum of global liquidity has just broken out of a falling wedge, signaling a clear cash injection into the financial system. This breakout suggests an imminent shift in market conditions, as liquidity expansion typically fuels risk-on sentiment across equities, crypto, and commodities. Since this is a lagging indicator, markets are expected to react soon, with asset prices likely to follow the upward momentum driven by increased liquidity. The formula aggregates the total assets of major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, People’s Bank of China, and European Central Bank, while adjusting for currency exchange rates to reflect their true impact in USD terms. Liquidity-draining factors such as the Reverse Repo (RRP) and the Treasury General Account (TGA) are subtracted to provide a clearer picture of the actual liquidity available in the system.
FRED:WALCLLong
by dicetrade
$EUINTR -Europe's Interest RatesECONOMICS:EUINTR (March/2025) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered the three key interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected, reducing the deposit facility rate to 2.50%, the main refinancing rate to 2.65%, and the marginal lending rate to 2.90%. This decision reflects an updated assessment of the inflation outlook and monetary policy transmission. *The ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive, easing borrowing costs for businesses and households. Inflation is projected to average 2.3% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and 2.0% in 2027, with core inflation also nearing the 2% target. Although domestic inflation remains elevated due to delayed wage and price adjustments, wage growth is moderating. Economic growth forecasts were revised downward to 0.9% for 2025 and 1.2% for 2026, reflecting weak exports and investment. *The ECB remains data-dependent and will adjust its policy as needed to ensure inflation stabilizes around its 2% medium-term target without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
All Federal Employees To US PopulationI think it is important for people to full understand that the 172,000 job cuts from the Federal Government is more about showmanship than logic. The federal gov employees as a % of the population has been falling for decades through the growth of the population and the economy. This is the absolute best way to reduce gov. Debt, deficits, etc.. through growth, NOT cutting and causing a heart attack! Slow mythological, calculated cuts if/when they are required are fine. chaotic, reactive, for the sake of showmanship is NOT! This will not end well. There will be consequences, people have yet to realize and appreciate the severity of these actions. These actions taken by the current administration will be felt in the markets.
FRED:CES9091000001
by RealMacro
13
BLX and the Global EconomyUsing as a reference tool to compare the growth of Bitcoin (BLX chart) with the Global Economy as a metric and finding a solid bottom for the Global Economy metric at the 1.618 retracement in late September 2023 BLX (orange/white) candles Global Economy (blue/white candles) Global Economy Includes: ------------------------------- US total assets Central Bank Assets for Euro Area * Euro to US Dollar Rate less Reverse Repurchase Agreement (Reverse REPOs) less Liabilities and Capital: Liabilities: Deposits with F.R. Banks, Other Than Reserve Balances: U.S. Treasury, General Account China Central Bank Balance Sheet * Chinese Yuan to United States Dollar Total Assets for Japan * Japanese Yen to United States Dollar NOTE: I have never tried to run a compare in Tradingview so I hope that the BLX compare continues to run alongside with the Global Economy. If this does not run in tandem I will update with monthly snapshots as a feel that this is an important metric in measuring how closely BTC could outpace or under-perform the Global Economy as whole. ▀▀█═╡🤡╞═█▀▀
FRED:WALCL
by Miles-Maddox
Caution is now warranted The RSI on credit spreads is changing course from being in a downtrend to starting an uptrend. With February's monthly closing we now have a higher high. Risk assets will not be the place to hide out; especially if you are leveraged long. Here is how the SPX has performed after changing course. The red vertical lines are the dates the RSI on credit spread changed from a downtrend to an uptrend while the green dotted vertical lines was the bottom in SPX. As you can see it is never immediate....
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
by Vixtine
1
Using Credit Spread chart for bull/bear market sentiment changesIt's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market correction OR it could lead to a major bear). What to notice about the above chart: 1. RSI tops are usually very aggressive; V-Shaped type moves thus making market bottoms typically a little more challenging in the moment. 2. RSI bottoms usually give you a warning sign and are typically more gradual thus you can use more fundamental analysis to gauge whether or not it might just be the usual market correction or a possible major bear market (i.e. like the one between 2000-2009). You can see using the green circles how the RSI changes course from down to up with the important caveat that credit spreads should be below 4; which indicates complacency in the marketplace IMO. Going back in time...the chart below shows on SPX in real time when "caution" (yellow vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI was showing a possible double bottom to indicate a possible change in direction vs. "extreme caution" (red vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI created a clear higher high & higher low thereby definitely shifting RSI from down to up. As you can see sometimes the corrections happen immediately thereafter and sometimes the market continues upward for a bit (especially after yellow vertical line signals). HOWEVER, once the RSI change in direction does indeed occur either using the yellow or red vertical lines...the SPX has always eventually traded lower once you have a trigger date. This would allow those who do not hedge to re-evaluate their portfolios for a risk off type upcoming move. LASTLY but most importantly (Especially if you are currently really bearish on the overall US market)...look at the current RSI. We are in a downtrend (SPX bullish), we are below 4 (risk on) AND we are no where near a possible bottoming process on the RSI at the moment (the current green circle looks nothing like the past). We are certainly where one should be on high alert that a bottoming process on the RSI MIGHT begin to form however it needs to play out first and only then should you begin to start looking to short SPX.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
by Vixtine
1
Crypto is correlated to the 4 yr business cycleISM survey results show 4 distinct phases (seasons) we are in the beginning of the expansion phase when ISM ticks up, and crypto, benefiting from all the newly injected liquidity, benefits This chart shows the last few cycles for comparison, and to illustrate that 2021 was a shortened cycle because of the black swan impact of covid. Expect financial conditions to improve dramatically this year, and you can use this chart as a forward indicator to demonstrate that patterns don't repeat exactly, but the rhyme quite often.
ECONOMICS:USBCOILong
by rabbidfly
$USPCEPIMC -U.S Price Index (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC 0.3% (January/2025) source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 0.3% month-over-month in January 2025, the same pace as in December, and in line with expectations. Prices for goods increased 0.5%, following a 0.1% rise in December and prices for services rose at a slower 0.2%, after a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3%, slightly above the 0.2% gain recorded in the previous month, and also matching forecasts. Food prices went up 0.3%, higher than 0.2% in December while cost of energy eased (1.3% vs 2.4%). On a year-over-year basis, headline PCE inflation eased to 2.5% from 2.6%, marking its first slowdown in four months. Similarly, core PCE inflation declined to 2.6%, its lowest level in seven months, from an upwardly revised 2.9%.
ECONOMICS:USPCEPIMC
by Mr_J__fx
$USGDPQQ -United States GDP (Q4/2024)ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ 2.3% Q4/2024 source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis - The US economy expanded an annualized 2.3% in Q4 2024, the slowest growth in three quarters, down from 3.1% in Q3 and in line with the advance estimate. Personal consumption remained the main driver of growth, increasing 4.2%, the most since Q1 2023, in line with the advance estimate. Spending rose for both goods (6.1%) and services (3.3%). Also, exports fell slightly less (-0.5% vs -0.8%) and imports declined slightly more than initially anticipated (-1.2% vs -0.8%), leaving the contribution from net trade positive at 0.12 pp. Government expenditure also rose more (2.9% vs 2.5%). Private inventories cut 0.81 pp from the growth, less than 0.93 pp. On the other hand, fixed investment contracted more (-1.4% vs -0.6%), due to equipment (-9% vs -7.8%) and as investment in intellectual property products failed to rise (0% vs 2.6%). Residential investment however, rose more than initially anticipated (5.4% vs 5.3%). Considering full 2024, the economy advanced 2.8%.
ECONOMICS:USGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
The Dutch Housing Market is About to Collapse: The Perfect StormThe Dutch housing market is on the verge of a historic crash. The extreme rise in property prices over the past decades now seems unsustainable, and the first cracks in the foundation are already visible. Technical analysis indicates that a correction of at least 25% in house prices is a realistic scenario, and the underlying economic and social problems only reinforce this outlook. Technical Indicators Confirm the Decline An analysis of the Dutch House Price Index reveals a classic Head and Shoulders pattern, a strong signal indicating a downward trend. A break below the neckline could trigger a free fall. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is showing a clear bearish divergence: while prices were still rising, the RSI had already started to decline, signaling weakening momentum. This indicates that demand is drying up and the market is ripe for a major correction. A Country Made Unlivable But this looming crash is not just a technical story; the Netherlands has gradually become an increasingly unattractive place to live. Multiple crises are reinforcing each other, accelerating the inevitable turning point. 1. Mass Immigration and Overpopulation The Netherlands has changed dramatically due to uncontrolled mass immigration, mainly from non-Western countries. This has led to explosive population growth and immense pressure on the housing market. There simply is not enough space for everyone, while the government offers no solutions. Social housing is increasingly allocated to newcomers, leaving native Dutch citizens waiting for years. This creates not only social tensions but also an economic imbalance that is unsustainable. 2. Climate Goals and Unaffordable Sustainability Costs The Dutch government has shackled itself to unrealistic climate goals, dictated by the EU and climate lobbyists. Homeowners are forced to invest tens of thousands of euros in insulation, heat pumps, and solar panels, often without ever seeing a return on investment. The mandatory energy label requirements make houses harder to sell and lower their value. As a result, house prices will continue to decline. 3. Exploding Energy Prices Energy prices in the Netherlands have skyrocketed, partly due to climate policies and partly due to international tensions. While households are already struggling with skyrocketing mortgage costs, they are now also facing unaffordable energy bills. This makes it simply too expensive to own a home, reducing demand and putting downward pressure on house prices. 4. Soaring Inflation The Dutch economy is being hit by historic inflation. Years of money printing, tax hikes, and rising living costs mean that fewer and fewer people can afford to buy a home. Mortgage rates are rising, making borrowing more expensive and further reducing purchasing power. This creates a perfect storm, where property prices can only go in one direction: down. 5. The LHBTIQ Ideology and Social Disintegration To make matters worse, the Netherlands has increasingly succumbed to forced ideological brainwashing. The focus is no longer on prosperity, stability, and sound economic policy, but on gender quotas, inclusion policies, and the woke agenda. Companies and governments are wasting billions on programs that contribute nothing to the economy, while the real concerns of citizens – affordable housing and financial stability – are completely ignored. The Great Correction is Coming Everything indicates that the Dutch housing market has reached an irreversible turning point. House prices have peaked, and a correction is inevitable. The predicted 25% decline is not a pessimistic doomsday scenario but a realistic projection based on both technical and fundamental analysis. Homeowners who still believe their property is a safe investment should seriously reconsider. The market is about to enter a free fall, and those who fail to act in time risk seeing their property value evaporate within a few years. This is not just a temporary dip – this is the beginning of the collapse of the Dutch housing market.
ECONOMICS:NLHPIShort
by G1D3onn
UK HOUSE PRICES: RELENTLESS UPTRENDIn January 2025, the latest figures reveal that UK house prices have risen by 0.7%, pushing the average price to a staggering £299,238, a new all-time high. For the mainstream media, the narrative of an impending house price crash has been a constant refrain over the past two years, fueled by the belief that prolonged high interest rates would spell disaster for the housing market. Indeed, these elevated interest rates have significantly hindered the natural upward trajectory of house prices, which typically rise in response to inflation, a growing population, and a persistent shortage of new housing construction. The current stagnation in UK house prices resembles a pressure cooker, building up energy that is bound to release in a dramatic surge. The government’s ongoing strategy of printing money to appease voters will inevitably flow into asset prices, leading to inflation in these markets, much like the consumer price inflation we’ve already witnessed. The government finds itself in a bind, compelled to continue this money printing to meet the electorate's demands for free money and to manage an ever-growing debt burden. As the debt increases, so does the need for borrowing to service it. This cycle makes it increasingly challenging for the UK to lower long-term borrowing rates, especially compared to the US, which still holds sway over the global financial landscape. UK house prices are gradually regaining momentum following the fallout from the Liz Truss debacle, a situation she seems to remain blissfully unaware of, despite the havoc her brief six-week tenure as Prime Minister wreaked on the British economy. The financial landscape was nearly sent tumbling into chaos, prompting the Bank of England to step in with an unprecedented commitment to purchase UK Government Bonds. The economy is so fragile that the UK is now compelled to invest in US government bonds to shore up its financial system against the spectre of another crisis reminiscent of the Truss era under Labour. We were perilously close to a financial meltdown! Currently, UK house prices are inching towards a potential increase of around 10% per year, indicating a modest upward trend rather than a frenzied housing boom, while also avoiding the catastrophic price drop that the media seems to obsess over. Ultimately, average house prices in the UK are set to rise, irrespective of government actions or economic conditions. Therefore, those considering the purchase of a standalone house should act without hesitation, as flats and new builds present more complicated challenges—flats can become a logistical nightmare, and new developments might be situated in flood-prone areas, among other concerns.
ECONOMICS:GBAHPLong
by BallaJi
Yield Curve Inversion Watch Chart - Fed Has To Cut!If you’re worried about a recession, you should be watching the Yield Curve Inverting. Historically, an inversion signals a recession, but with a lag. We can see this on the chart whenever the yield curve hits 0% This shows the 2Y yield higher than the 10Y which is a signal that the market expects slow economic growth. To counter-act the inversion, the Fed cuts the EFFR, although they are always late. One would think that the Fed would learn from history, and get ahead of the curve this time around. Only time will tell. I’m cautiously optimistic as Treasury Secretary Bessent has stated that he has a weekly meeting with Fed Chair Powell.
FRED:T10Y2Y
by jonnieking
Timing the Markets with Consumer SentimentBusinesses and producers around the world always cheer when U.S. consumer sentiment is in the 80 to 100 zone, as U.S. consumers play a big part in the global economic ecosystem. The United States remains the largest consumer market in the world, but since the pandemic, this index has not recovered above the 80 level. Does it mean that, there is a risks economy to enter into a recession? How can we use this index to time our investments and trades? E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: RTY Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Russell Futures Ticker: M2K Minimum fluctuation: 0.10 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
FRED:UMCSENTShort
by konhow
4
$JPIRYY -Japan's Inflation Rate (CPI)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 4% (January/2025) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan climbed to 4.0% in January 2025 from 3.6% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in 15 months (7.8% vs 6.4% in December), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.0% vs 18.7%) and gas cost (6.8% vs 7.8%) remained elevated with the absence of energy subsidies since May 2024. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.8%), clothing (2.8% vs 2.9%), transport (2.0% vs 1.1%), furniture and household items (3.4% vs 3.0%), healthcare (1.8% vs 1.7%), recreation (2.6% vs 4.0%), and miscellaneous items (1.4% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-0.3% vs -2.1%) and education (-1.1% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 19-month high of 3.2%, up from 3.0% in December and topping consensus of 3.1%. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.5%, after December's 14-month top of 0.6% rise.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
China's money supply explodes.China's revision of its M1 money supply calculation in January 2025, which now encompasses individual checking accounts and assets held in non-bank financial institutions, seeks to deliver a clearer understanding of liquidity within its economy. The reported surge from $67 trillion in December 2024 to $112 trillion in January 2025 has ignited discussions, with some viewing it as a strategy to obscure underlying economic issues, such as a potential deflationary debt spiral. The People's Bank of China has declared a "moderately loose" monetary policy for 2025, aiming to boost the money supply and lower interest rates to foster economic growth, a move that may be connected to the M1 recalibration. This shift takes place against a backdrop of broader macroeconomic adjustments, including a 5% GDP growth target and initiatives to stabilize the real estate sector, as detailed in China's 14th Five-Year Plan for 2025.
ECONOMICS:CNM1Long
by BallaJi
2/18/25 - general mkt observationsi'd rather be sippin' pina coladas on the balcony at this stage than continue at the beach party with clear skies darkening. think i've just been there, done that enough to not want to play the last minute FAFO game as much as one can possibly avoid it. so when i look out over the next 12 months... yup... let me stop right there... i don't think we can do that and i get the sense that everyone is doing just this. do i think we'll end the year higher on the index vs. where we stand today? yes. but do i think we just keep chugging along in the clown car in the same fashion as last year. no. there are a lot of things that changed in the last 3 months. take for instance, how volatile the tape has become (once again) on trump's shower or toilet tweets. less taco bell, more pepto pls. but the reality is, we're just trading the tape we're presented to. any emotional reaction you have to any of it is a disadvantage to your pnl and a benefit to the zero sum other guy *well* computer. DOGE matters. dollar dominance and signaling matters. rates matter. tariffs matter. china matters. all of a sudden, the soup might include a bat. nah. that's for a fairy tale. take a look at this chart. i've plotted ST rates vs. S&P earnings yield and flipped on some haikin ashi action for the candles to show trends as more obvious. while we could argue about infinite topics in the >12 month context for each of these... simply put... ST rates look... competitive. even in the fake video game we all play, we get to choose different doors, weapons, opinions to follow. opportunity cost matters. and so when i see the rolling over of this trend PLUS dominance of market cap weighted S&P vs. equal weight S&P (SPXEW/SPY)... this also tells me there's an embedded premium in these "will survive better than the others" boats. Bitcoin dominance (BTC.d in trading view) shows you the same thing. Everyone has been chitcoinin' but realizes now the zero-sum game of 99% of these things and the conclusion is... "settle into USDT and BTC". ultimately, that purple line (back to the trad mkts) indicates we might be reaching a point where growth is unclear, the path is unclear... and therefore... any relevant catalyst (like a headline about China-Taiwan... EVEN IF IT WON'T HAPPEN) could throw these markets off 5-10% easily. maybe that's all we get. maybe there's something else. right now we don't have that catalyst. it's getting a bit spooky out here. we will keep playing our earnings game. liking what we like BTC , NXT , UBER , tsm... incubating a few others like EVVTY , BLDE , mu. i can't HELP but to keep my cash balance awkwardly high. i don't mind jumping back in the pool. but my swimsuit is dry. the pina colada is chilly. and the whispy air coming in off the rocky ocean sends a feel-good shiver up my spine. something's off, but in a good way. opportunity is coming. be vigilant. risk manage. know what you own. know what you want to own if/when/for how much. have a good week. V
ECONOMICS:USINTRShort
by VROCKSTAR
Global Liquidity: A Turning PointLooking at the state of global liquidity, I believe we're in a solid position for some longer trades. The chart reflects a potential inflection point, suggesting that liquidity could increase over the next six months. This aligns well with my base case that we may see a gradual rise in liquidity, supported by macroeconomic tailwinds. From a strategy perspective, this appears to be a prime opportunity for longer-term spot positions in miners, Bitcoin, and metals. These assets are historically well-positioned to benefit from rising liquidity conditions, and current levels offer an attractive entry point for patient investors. While short-term volatility is always a possibility, the broader trend signals that this could be a pivotal moment for accumulation in these sectors. Patience and conviction will be key in riding this next wave.
FRED:M2SLLong
by martinxi5u4