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Economy

Are #Stocks expensive? No measured against M2 money supplyThe 2000 Top was still the "real" peak of the US stock market Built obviously on the expectation that the internet would change the world and teh global economy. This highlights how the market foresees the future and how market participants are forward looking. The #DownJones index is still 50% down form that peak on this chart you can multiple chart patterns tat have played out previously HVF's, double top, head & shoulder tops, and inv H&S bottoms currently in a 22 year continuation inv head and shoulders which is still in progress my stance is Top in April/May 24 .... downdraft into the election and a run up for 2/3 years into the Giga Uber TOP
FRED:WM2NSLong
by BallaJi
2
Lag for StatsHow about an indicator that shows the days from the last data point of a statistical chart, such as PMI or any government state, to the current date. Showing the lag before the release of data. Just seems to me that in these difficult days that government may be fudging the numbers. Also holding back on the release of stats for public consumption. Maybe they release it to some, but hold back to providers like TV. I do not know. But I would like to be able to see if they do. Anyone out there want to take up the challenge to make such an indicator? Which may warn us when there is bad economic news on the horizon.
FRED:INDPRO
by Steven678
United Kingdom GDP (QoQ) ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ Great Britain officially entered in Recession due to Two Consecutive Negative Quarters. The British economy contracted 0.3% on quarter in Q4 2023, following a 0.1% decline in Q3, worse than market forecasts of a 0.1% fall, preliminary estimates showed. The economy entered recession amid a broad-based decline in output, namely in services (-0.2%, the same as in Q3), particularly wholesale and retail trade (-0.6%); industrial production (-1% vs 0.1%), mostly manufacture of machinery and equipment (-7%) and construction (-1.3% vs 0.1%). On the expenditure side, there was a fall in exports (-2.9% vs -0.8%), imports (-0.8% vs -1.8%); household spending (-0.1% vs -0.9%), particularly lower spending on recreation and culture, miscellaneous goods and services, and transport; and government consumption (-0.3% vs 1.1%), namely lower activity in education and health. Those falls were partially offset by an increase in gross capital formation (1.4% vs -1.4%), mostly other buildings and structures. Considering full 2023, the GDP in the UK edged up 0.1%. source: Office for National Statistics
ECONOMICS:GBGDPQQ
by Mr_J__fx
The TREND is your FRIEND 21 $Trillion incoming. #Fiat #dxyM2 is a classification of money supply. It includes M1 – which is comprised of cash outside of the private banking system plus current account deposits – while also including capital in savings accounts, money market accounts and retail mutual funds, and time deposits of under $100,000. Governments are not shying away from negative rates and printing money. This is akin to a Financially Transmitted Disease. As a result of this incredible money printing in the United States, the U.S. dollar is under siege. Commercial traders are net short nearly 26 thousand contracts the most since 2019. This means that investors are betting against the US Dollars at levels not seen in years.
FRED:WM2NSLong
by BallaJi
🇺🇸 US2M - QE To buy the US Debt again ? 💎Here's an intriguing observation I'd like to discuss. The increasing number of diamond 💎💎 alerts serves as a warning sign indicating an imminent significant market move. - What is the US2M? The M2 money supply is a measure of the total amount of money in circulation within an economy that includes cash, checking deposits, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. It's broader than M1, which only includes cash and checking deposits. M2 is important because it gives a more comprehensive picture of the available money for spending and investment within an economy. - Does quantitative easing add to the money supply? Quantitative easing expands the money supply by enlarging the central bank's balance sheet and introducing fresh cash into the economy. This process boosts banks' reserves held at the central bank, effectively increasing the overall money available for circulation and lending. So what does it imply ? 📈 When we say quantitative easing increases the money supply, it means that it adds more money into circulation within the economy. This can lead to more available funds for spending, investment, and lending, which can stimulate economic activity. ( + the US Dollar often goes down in this case) 📉 On the other hand, if we say quantitative easing decreases the money supply, it would mean the opposite: the central bank is reducing the amount of money in circulation. This could be done to control inflation or to address other economic concerns where too much money in circulation might cause problems like rising prices. (+ the US Dollar often goes up in this case) Do not forget to check this US2M Chart, it is very important. I wish you a great day. ILT 💎
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by IllumiTrade
Plenty of liquidity in the market + more liquidity to come?We still have distortions from the monetary liquidity introduced during the pandemic. The bottom indicator is the 12-month rate of change. We can see an extreme expansion in M2 and subsequent contraction. On the other hand, we can see that the M2 line still shows a big stock of liquidity compared to the standard deviations. Each standard deviation on the chart represents 2 trillion dollars. This shows that liquidity is abundant in the market, as the M2 is currently 2 to 3 standard deviations from its 10-year average. In other words, the M2 standard deviations show around $5 trillion in excess liquidity compared to the 10-year average, indicating that the money supply remains significantly elevated despite the recent contraction in the 12-month rate of change. This excess liquidity in the system may continue to impact asset prices and inflation and fuel a bull market. Finally, considering the fragility created by high interest rates in the banking industry, the FED might be forced to ease monetary policy and lower interest rates further to stabilize the financial system. This is another reason to be bullish or... in case the FED doesn't ease the monetary policy, to be bearish!
ECONOMICS:USM2Long
by HenriqueCentieiro
ISM GAUGES POINT TO HIGHER INFLATIONISM surveys show that prices are rising ; during April services and manufacturing prices advanced 10% on average. The problem? Look at the chart comparing these price indexes to the traditional CPI inflation reading, ISMs are usually forward looking. Inflation 2.0 is coming ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Las encuestas ISM muestran que los precios están subiendo, durante abril los precios de servicios y manufactura avanzaron 10% en promedio. El problema? Mira el gráfico que compara estos índices de precios con la lectura tradicional de inflación CPI, los ISM suelen ser prospectivos. Inflación 2.0 está por llegar
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by yamilbocanegra
1
Stocks Always Go Up...Right?Gather around....I have short story to tell Once upon a time, in a town called Sweetville, there lived a child named Lily, whose love for cookies knew no bounds. From the moment she took her first bite, a magical spell was cast upon her taste buds, and she became powerless to resist the sweet temptation. Lily's days revolved around cookies. She couldn't stop eating them—chocolate chip, sugar, oatmeal raisin—they all captivated her senses. The more she indulged, the deeper she fell into the clutches of her insatiable cravings. As Lily grew older, her addiction to cookies became more pronounced. She spent every penny on her sweet obsession, neglecting her chores, studies, and even her friendships. The town's bakery thrived, fueling her addiction and turning her into their most loyal customer. But as Lily's cookie consumption skyrocketed, the economy of Sweetville began to crumble. People's focus shifted from productivity and innovation to indulgence and immediate gratification. Businesses suffered as resources were drained to feed the endless demand for cookies. Jobs were lost, and families struggled to make ends meet. Sweetville's once-thriving economy turned into a ghost town, its streets filled with empty storefronts and shattered dreams. Lily's uncontrolled cookie consumption had inadvertently become a symbol of society's unchecked greed and excess. The economy crashing was a wake-up call for Sweetville. People realized that balance and prudence were essential for a stable and prosperous community.
ECONOMICS:USCBBS
by Heartbeat_Trading
China Caixin PMI SummaryChina Caixin PMI Summary Surveys completed by 650 SME's in China have indicated that China's smaller manufacturing and service providers remain in expansionary mode in April 2024 with all three data releases coming in as expected or higher than expected with readings >50 = Expansionary. Manufacturing - 51.4 Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 51 Services - 52.5 Decreased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.5 in Apr 2024 ✅In line with expectations of 52.5 Composite - 52.8 Increased from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to 52.8 in Apr 2024 ✅Above expectations of 52.5
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by PukaCharts
China Caixin Services PMI (isolated chart)Sharing as a separate chart to Macro Monday 45 so we can update this separately. PLEASE REVIEW MACRO MONDAY 45 China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) ▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings.
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by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 45~The China Caixin PMI (Manu, Serv & Composite)Macro Monday 45 The China Caixin PMI (Services and Composite released Today Monday) Last week week we looked at the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI which will revise today with its updated readings that were released last Tuesday. We will also look at the China Caixin Services PMI and the Caixin Composite PMI (a combination of the Services and Manufacturing PMI's) as these will both be released later today. 1.Manufacturing PMI – Already released 2. Services PMI – Released Today 6th May 2024 3. Composite PMI Released Today 6th May 2024 (both 1 + 2 combined) What is the Caixin PMI? ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a small sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers and service providers. Why Focus on China PMI's? China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from the PMI charts we are about to review also. Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indicies; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. Reading both PMI’s: >50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. < 50 represents contraction A reading of 50 indicates no change. The Charts China Caixin Manufacturing PMI - APR 2024 ✅51.4 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ▫️ Increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increased from 51.1 in Mar 2024 to 51.4 in Apr 2024 – Figures for April were released on the 30th April 2024 (last week). ✅The Caixin Manufacturing PMI has remained expansionary for 6 consecutive (Nov 2023 – Apr 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 40.3, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 6 months of expansionary readings. China Caixin Services PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) ▫️ Increased from 50.2 in Sept 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Services PMI has remained expansionary for 15 consecutive months (Jan 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 lows of 26.5 when services took a huge hit during COVID-19 lockdowns, since then making a series of higher lows and recently sustaining 15 months of expansionary readings. China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI - Mar 2024 ✅52.7 = Expansionary (>50 is expansionary) ⏳ April Figures released today (pending) THIS IS THE SUBJECT CHART AT OUTSET ▫️ Increased from 50 in Oct 2023 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 ▫️ Increase/decrease from 52.7 in Mar 2024 to ??? in Apr 2024 – Figures for April are released on today Monday 6th April 2024. ✅The Caixin Composite PMI has remained expansionary for 5 consecutive months (Nov 2023 – Mar 2024). It has been on a long term recovery since the Feb 2020 similar to Manufacturing and Services PMI charts above. Looking at the composite chart, one can see that we moving sideways since Dec 2023 (Dec 52.6, Jan 52.5, Feb 52.5 & Mar 52.7). We are comfortably in the expansionary green zone on the composite. In Summary (subject to tomorrow’s readings for the Services and Composite PMI but we assume expansionary) China Caixin Manufacturing PM I ↗️ Expansionary The Caixin Manufacturing PMI for April 2024 rose to 51.4, marking the sixth straight month of expansion and the fastest growth since February 2023 China Caixin Services PMI ↗️ Expansionary As of March 2024, the Caixin Services PMI increased slightly to 52.7, indicating growth in the services sector for the 15th consecutive month (April 2024 Figures Release Today) China Caixin COMPOSITE PMI ↗️ Expansionary The Composite PMI reached 52.7 in March 2023, the highest since May 2023, showing the fifth consecutive month of growth in overall private sector activity. (April 2024 Figures Release Today) All the above readings suggest a continued expansion across China’s services and manufacturing sectors, reflecting improvements in demand and business activity across the SME cohort. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Lets get after it again this week 💪🏻 PUKA
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by PukaCharts
Gov't Money printer Turned back on.Macro Commentary Cash will continue to be forced into assets either through investing or during the transaction/exchange of commerce. The printing won't end Until there's real change in fiscal policy and the new normal may be at the same adjusted rate during the 2008 collapse. People who do not trade their fiat for assets or income generating sources will get left behind to be stuck paying higher prices in the future. Normally this is the difference between the people who do invest and the people who don't. However we are getting to a scary point where this cycle may leave so many people so far behind that most investments and assets may become out of reach crushing the middle and lower class even further.. PS: Buy BTC
FRED:WM2NSLong
by AngryBuhda
Good Liquidity Proxy? Fed balance sheet + BOJ balance sheet adjusted to USD + PBOC balance sheet adjusted to usd - Fed reverse repo - Treasury general account + Assets held at money market funds Looks as if 1% rise in liquidity = 5% Rise in Crypto Michael Howell thinks there is a 6 week lag with liquidity and Bitcoin, and 6 month Lag with Liquidity and Gold Only Allows a Weekly Timeframe. A more experience trader/chartist I'm sure could improve this draw. Copy and Paste Below into Trading View: FRED:WALCL+FRED:JPNASSETS*FX_IDC:JPYUSD+ECONOMICS:CNCBBS*FX_IDC:CNYUSD-FRED:RRPONTSYD-FRED:WTREGEN+FRED:MMMFFAQ027S
FRED:WALCLLong
by will_moriarty
Macro Monday 44 (Chart B) - China Manufacturing Caixin PMI PLEASE REVIEW Macro Monday 44 for the full post. This chart is presented here so that we can update it at a later date only. It is also included in the prior post China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024. ▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024). ▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024.
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by PukaCharts
Macro Monday 44~China NBS PMI & Manufacturing Caixin PMIMacro Monday 44 The China NBS PMI and Manufacturing Caixin PMI (both released Tuesday 30th April 2024) China NBS General PMI – Surveys by 3,200 large corporations ▫️ Provided by the National Bureau of Labor Statistics ▫️ Based on a large sample size surveying 3,200 companies across China. ▫️ The NBS PMI has a stronger focus on larger state-owned firms. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 52.7 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surveys by 650 SME’s ▫️ The is an S&P Global report released monthly. ▫️ The Caixin PMI focuses on small & medium sized enterprises (SME’s) in China. ▫️ Surveys a smaller sample size of 650 private and state owned manufacturers. ▫️ Recently increased from 50.9 in Feb 2024 to 51.1 in Mar 2024 (>50 = Expansionary) N.B: The China Services Caixin PMI will be released Monday 6th May which when combined with the China Manufacturing Caixin PMI will form the all encompassing China Caixin Composite PMI. We will cover the China Services and Composite PMI next week on Monday 6th May 2024. Both the Manufacturing Caixin PMI and the China NBS General PMI are of companies that are mostly export-orientated & located along China’s Costal Regions. These are the manufacturing and export hubs of China, the likes of major coastal regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shanghai which have strategic access to ports and shipping routes. China, the 2nd largest economy in the world at approx. $18 trillion is often referred to as the world’s manufacturing superpower. In 2019, the Chinese manufacturing sector contributed nearly $4 trillion towards the country’s total economic output. Manufacturing accounted for almost 30% of China’s GDP during 2019 demonstrating the importance of manufacturing and the surveys completed by the manufacturers through the Purchaser Managers Index (PMI) surveys. Incredibly, in 2023 China’s manufacturing continued to increase and contributed 31.7% to China GDP, furthermore China’s exports reached record highs of $3.36 trillion in 2023. For a country that gets a lot of bad economic press, the economic data from manufacturing and exports suggests China is adaptable and is currently in expansionary territory. This will be further evident from both the PMI charts we are about to review below. Like most PMI’s the data will generally be derived from the following sub indices; New Orders, Output, Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Inventories. Reading both PMI’s: >50 indicates expansion in the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month. < 50 represents contraction A reading of 50 indicates no change. The Charts China NBS General PMI – Surveys from 3,200 large corporations (subject chart above) ▫️ After hitting an all time low of 28.9 in Feb 2020 from the COVID-19 pandemic, China’s NBS General PMI has experienced significant fluctuations. ▫️ The NBS PMI made two subsequent significant lows in Apr and Dec 2022 at approx. 42.6. ▫️ By March 2023, the PMI reached an all-time high of 57.0, indicating strong expansion in both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors. ▫️ This fell to a low of 50.3 in Dec 2023, and since then we have risen to 52.7 in Mar 2023. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. China Manufacturing Caixin PMI – Surverys from 650 SME’s ▫️ The China Manufacturing Caixin PMI for smaller SME’s has demonstrated a series of higher lows since February 2020 demonstrating a strong recovery out of the COVID-19 pandemic. ▫️ Momentarily reaching all time highs of 54.9 Nov 2020, thereafter falling significantly to 46 in April 2022, since then the Manufacturing Caixin has pressed into expansionary territory of 51.1 (March 2024). ▫️ This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity and the fastest pace since February 2023, boosted by higher new orders from domestic and abroad, with foreign sales rising the most in a year while output climbed the most since last May. 🚨 Next release for April is released this Tuesday 30thApril 2024. Both PMI's are in expansionary territory which is positive news for China production and exports. SME's appear to have made a more gradual and measured recovery in the Caixin PMI versus the volatile nature of the large corporations in the NBS PMI. Regardless both are swinging higher towards 52 or 53 placing them in the expansionary mode. Potential Trade Set Up On a separate note, adding to China's expansionary potential from above economic data and the PMI charts, one of the worlds greatest traders Peter Brandt @PeterLBrandt recently posted a potential buy signal one of Chinas main indexes, the Heng Seng Index which looks to have formed a Head and Shoulders bottom with a recent break out (see most recent post under this one). The Heng Seng Index (HSI) serves as a great proxy for Asian markets, its the main indicator of the overall market performance in Hong Kong and includes 82 constituent companies, representing about 60% of the total capitalization of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. The companies in the HSI are considered blue chips and thus the index operates a good basal gauge of market sentiment in China. Definitely a chart to add to your arsenal for Asian markets. All these charts are available on my Tradingview Page and you can go to them at any stage over the next 5 - 10 years press play and you'll get the chart updated with the easy visual guide I provided. I hope its helpful Lets get after this week 💪🏻 PUKA
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by PukaCharts
$JPINTR - Interest Rates MoMECONOMICS:JPINTR -0.1% November/2023 The Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintained its key short-term interest rate at -0.1% and that of 10-year bond yields at around 0% in a final meeting of the year by unanimous vote, as widely expected. The central bank also left unchanged a loose upper band of 1.0% set for the long-term government bond yield. The board said that it will patiently continue with monetary easing amid extremely high uncertainties at home and abroad. It also mentioned that policymakers will respond to development in economic activity and prices as well as financial conditions. By doing so, the BoJ aims to achieve a price stability target of 2% in a sustainable manner, accompanied by wage increases. The committee reiterated that it will not hesitate to take extra easing measures if needed. source: Bank of Japan
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx