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Economy

$CNGDPYY - China's GDP (Q3/2024)ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY Q3/2024 source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -The Chinese economy expanded 4.6% YoY in Q3 of 2024, compared with market forecasts of 4.5% and a 4.7% rise in Q2. It marked the slowest annual growth rate since Q1 2023, amid persistent property weakness, shaky domestic demand, deflation risks, and trade frictions with the West. The latest figures came as Beijing had intensified stimulus measures to boost economic recovery and rebuild confidence. In September alone, there were some positive signs: industrial output and retail sales both saw their largest increases in four months, and the urban jobless rate fell to a three-month low of 5.1%. On the trade front, however, exports rose the least in five months while imports were sluggish. In the first three quarters of the year, the economy grew by 4.8%, compared with China’s full-year target of around 5%. During the period, fixed investment rose by 3.4% yoy, topping consensus of 3.3%.
ECONOMICS:CNGDPYY
by Mr_J__fx
$JPIRYY -Japan's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:JPIRYY 2.5% (September/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan fell to 2.5% in September 2024 from 3.0% in the prior month, marking the lowest reading since April. Electricity prices increased the least in three months as the impact of energy subsidy removal in May waned (15.2% vs. 26.2% in August), and the cost of gas rose much more slowly (7.7% vs. 11.1%). Moreover, costs moderated for food (3.4% vs. 3.6%), furniture & household utensils (4.8% vs. 5.2%), transport (0.1% vs. 0.2%), and culture (4.3% vs. 4.8%). Additionally, prices fell further for communication (-2.6% vs. -2.4%) and education (-1.0% vs. -1.0%). On the other hand, inflation remained unchanged for housing (0.7%) and healthcare (1.5%), while edging higher for clothes (2.4% vs. 2.3%) and miscellaneous (0.9% vs. 0.8%). Meanwhile, the core inflation rate hit a five-month low of 2.4%, down from August's 2.8%, compared with the consensus of 2.3%. On a monthly basis, the CPI declined by 0.3%, pointing to the first drop since February 2023.
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$EUINTR -Europe Interest Rates ECONOMICS:EUINTR (October/2024) source: European Central Bank - The ECB lowered its three key interest rates by 25 bps in October 2024, as expected, following similar moves in September and June. The deposit facility, main refinancing operations, and marginal lending facility rates will now be 3.25%, 3.40%, and 3.65%, respectively. This decision stems from an updated assessment of inflation, which shows disinflation progressing well. In September, inflation in the Eurozone fell below the ECB’s target of 2% for the first time in more than three years. While inflation is expected to rise in the short term, it should decline toward the 2% target in 2025. Wage growth remains high, but pressures are easing. The ECB remains committed to restrictive rates to ensure inflation reaches its medium-term goal, using a data-driven, flexible approach without committing to a specific rate path.
ECONOMICS:EUINTR
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY -U.K CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 1.7% source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in each of the previous two months and forecasts of 1.9%. The largest downward contribution came from transport (-2.2% vs 1.3%), namely air fares and motor fuels. Fares usually reduce in price between August and September, but this year this was the fifth largest fall since monthly data began in 2001. Also, the average price of petrol fell to 136.8 pence per litre compared to 153.6 pence per litre in September 2023. In addition, prices continued to fall for housing and utilities (-1.7% vs -1.6%) and furniture and household equipment (-1% vs -1.3%) and cost rose less for recreation and culture (3.8% vs 4%) and restaurants and hotels (4.1% vs 4.3%). Meanwhile, services inflation slowed to 4.9%, the lowest since May 2022, from 5.6% in August. On the other hand, the largest offsetting upward contribution came from food and non-alcoholic beverages (1.9% vs 1.3%).
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Sahm Rule Vs. FED's Own Recession Probability IndicatorThere is an interesting divergence between Claudia Sahm's real-time recession indicator and the FED's own recession probability indicator. Historically, if we look at this chart, we get a rise in both together into a recession. This time, the Sahm-Rule recession indicator has tripped the threshold at which recessions usually occur, but without a corresponding rise in the FED's recession indicator. So, I believe one of two scenarios will play out here. Either: A - The FED's recession indicator will "correct" to meet the Sahm rule indicator's action and trip it's own recession threshold thus confirming the recession. B - The Sahm rule is incorrect here and will correct back down - thus disconfirming the recession - to meet the FED's own indicator. I believe by watching this spread and how it resolves, we may get an insight into where the economy is going.
FRED:RECPROUSM156N
by RogueEconomics
Bitcoin Vs. Global M2 SupplyBitcoin is often compared to traditional fiat currencies in terms of its potential as a hedge against inflation. A key metric to understand this comparison is the M2 money supply—a measure of the money in circulation, including cash, savings deposits, and other liquid assets. The rising M2 supply is often associated with inflationary pressures, as central banks inject liquidity into the economy. Analysis: As M2 money supply has surged in recent years due to unprecedented monetary stimulus, Bitcoin has often rallied, reflecting its narrative as "digital gold" or an inflation-resistant asset. However, some argue Bitcoin's volatility makes it more of a speculative asset than a reliable store of value
ECONOMICS:CNM2
by mamoon101
1
$CNIRYY -China's CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:CNIRYY Inflation Data (September/2024) source: National Bureau of Statistics of China -China’s annual inflation rate stood at 0.4% in September 2024, below market forecasts and August’s figure of 0.6%. This was the 8th month of consumer inflation but was the lowest print since June, highlighting the need for more policy support from Beijing to address growing deflation risks. Non-food prices declined by 0.2%, following a 0.2% rise in August as the cost of transport shrank further (-4.1% vs -2.7%) due to lower crude oil prices. Also, housing prices edged down (-0.1% vs flat reading) amid government efforts to further regulate the property market. Meanwhile, cost slowed for health (1.2% vs 1.3%) and education (0.6% vs 1.3%). On the food side, prices rose for the second month, with the rate of increase the fastest in 20 months (3.3% vs 2.8%). Core consumer prices, excluding food and energy costs, increased 0.1% yoy, the smallest rise since February 2021, after a 0.3% gain in August. Monthly, the CPI was unchanged, compared with consensus and August’s print of a 0.4% rise.
ECONOMICS:CNIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
NFP & Port Strikes: Why Jobs Matter This Week Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to rise by 140,000 in September, matching August's pace and pushing the three-month average job gains to the weakest level since mid-2019. The NFP data is due this Friday. At the same time, a major labor disruption is underway. Dockworkers at 14 key ports, handling roughly half of U.S. trade, have launched an indefinite strike. The walkout could disrupt trade and strain the economy ahead of the presidential election and the crucial holiday shopping season. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that a prolonged strike could worsen supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbate inflation, and alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
FRED:DFF
by BlackBull_Markets
Using Credit Spread chart for bull/bear market sentiment changesIt's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market correction OR it could lead to a major bear). What to notice about the above chart: 1. RSI tops are usually very aggressive; V-Shaped type moves thus making market bottoms typically a little more challenging in the moment. 2. RSI bottoms usually give you a warning sign and are typically more gradual thus you can use more fundamental analysis to gauge whether or not it might just be the usual market correction or a possible major bear market (i.e. like the one between 2000-2009). You can see using the green circles how the RSI changes course from down to up with the important caveat that credit spreads should be below 4; which indicates complacency in the marketplace IMO. Going back in time...the chart below shows on SPX in real time when "caution" (yellow vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI was showing a possible double bottom to indicate a possible change in direction vs. "extreme caution" (red vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI created a clear higher high & higher low thereby definitely shifting RSI from down to up. As you can see sometimes the corrections happen immediately thereafter and sometimes the market continues upward for a bit (especially after yellow vertical line signals). HOWEVER, once the RSI change in direction does indeed occur either using the yellow or red vertical lines...the SPX has always eventually traded lower once you have a trigger date. This would allow those who do not hedge to re-evaluate their portfolios for a risk off type upcoming move. LASTLY but most importantly (Especially if you are currently really bearish on the overall US market)...look at the current RSI. We are in a downtrend (SPX bullish), we are below 4 (risk on) AND we are no where near a possible bottoming process on the RSI at the moment (the current green circle looks nothing like the past). We are certainly where one should be on high alert that a bottoming process on the RSI MIGHT begin to form however it needs to play out first and only then should you begin to start looking to short SPX.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
by Vixtine
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp. My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures. So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar). In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy. Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis... But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008. The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt). In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ECONOMICS:USGDPLong
by BradMatheny