Get started

Economy

2024 ADP Jobs Created Overstated by Near 550K?Recently, the September ADP Employment Report was published. (You can download historical data from the link above.) After the report was released, TVC:DXY , TVC:US02Y , TVC:US10Y , and TVC:US30Y rose, suggesting that the market perceived the report as strong. However, the details of the report tell me the opposite. Note, the data being published is seasonally adjusted (SA). However, it is possible to obtain the raw, non-seasonally adjusted (non-SA) data from the website above. I calculated the number of jobs created from the beginning of the year until September (inclusive) for both non-SA and SA data and determined the differences between these two values. You can find my spreadsheet here: www.icloud.com A screenshot of the results is also shown in the chart. As you can see, in typical years, the difference between jobs created from the start of the year through September for non-SA and SA is around 1.1M . Non-SA figures are usually higher because the last quarter tends to be weak for job creation. However, 2024 is quite different. The 2024 SA total jobs created is larger than expected by about 550K jobs . If we adjust by removing 550K reported SA jobs from 2024, the difference between non-SA and SA jobs would become approximately 1.1M, which is typical for a regular year. Why is this significant? Many indicators suggest that the U.S. economy is nearing a recession. Thus, this unusual job creation pattern is very suspicious. The published SA ADP employment numbers may be masking underlying economic weakness. Even with rate cut(s), I expect that the last quarter of 2024 will be weaker for job creation compared to a typical year. Therefore, I anticipate significant revisions to ADP employment data around December or January.
ECONOMICS:USEC
by eugene_sea
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
NFP & Port Strikes: Why Jobs Matter This Week Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) are projected to rise by 140,000 in September, matching August's pace and pushing the three-month average job gains to the weakest level since mid-2019. The NFP data is due this Friday. At the same time, a major labor disruption is underway. Dockworkers at 14 key ports, handling roughly half of U.S. trade, have launched an indefinite strike. The walkout could disrupt trade and strain the economy ahead of the presidential election and the crucial holiday shopping season. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee expressed concern that a prolonged strike could worsen supply chain bottlenecks, exacerbate inflation, and alter expectations for the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates.
FRED:DFF
by BlackBull_Markets
Using Credit Spread chart for bull/bear market sentiment changesIt's known that credit spreads under 4 indicate a low risk on type market. (The black dotted line on the above chart indicates 4 so you can clearly see above/below) You can then use the RSI index to gauge whether or not the market might see a "change" in sentiment. A declining RSI means bull mode while a rising RSI means bear mode (could be just a market correction OR it could lead to a major bear). What to notice about the above chart: 1. RSI tops are usually very aggressive; V-Shaped type moves thus making market bottoms typically a little more challenging in the moment. 2. RSI bottoms usually give you a warning sign and are typically more gradual thus you can use more fundamental analysis to gauge whether or not it might just be the usual market correction or a possible major bear market (i.e. like the one between 2000-2009). You can see using the green circles how the RSI changes course from down to up with the important caveat that credit spreads should be below 4; which indicates complacency in the marketplace IMO. Going back in time...the chart below shows on SPX in real time when "caution" (yellow vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI was showing a possible double bottom to indicate a possible change in direction vs. "extreme caution" (red vertical line) was indicated; meaning the RSI created a clear higher high & higher low thereby definitely shifting RSI from down to up. As you can see sometimes the corrections happen immediately thereafter and sometimes the market continues upward for a bit (especially after yellow vertical line signals). HOWEVER, once the RSI change in direction does indeed occur either using the yellow or red vertical lines...the SPX has always eventually traded lower once you have a trigger date. This would allow those who do not hedge to re-evaluate their portfolios for a risk off type upcoming move. LASTLY but most importantly (Especially if you are currently really bearish on the overall US market)...look at the current RSI. We are in a downtrend (SPX bullish), we are below 4 (risk on) AND we are no where near a possible bottoming process on the RSI at the moment (the current green circle looks nothing like the past). We are certainly where one should be on high alert that a bottoming process on the RSI MIGHT begin to form however it needs to play out first and only then should you begin to start looking to short SPX.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2EY
by Vixtine
Why The Fed Lowered Rates - My Opinion Part IThere has been a lot of speculation as to why the Fed lowered interest rates by 50bp. My opinion is the Fed realized the pressure of a stronger US-Dollar and stronger US economy, headed into the POTUS election accompanied with new spending/policy related to a new POTUS, could put the global markets under extreme currency/economic pressures. So, in order to provide more breathing room for the global economies, the US Fed decreased rates, taking a bit of pressure off currency rate divergences and allowing global central banks a bit of room to manage their economies against the 900-lb Gorilla (which is the US economy/US-Dollar). In short, the US Fed needed to alleviate pressure put on the Global markets because of the 900-lb Gorilla US economy. Not to save the US economy from an internal crisis... But to save the world from a crisis of their own making. A Global Credit/Debt crisis has been brewing since before 2008. The US Fed "gave in" and decided they had to decrease rates to reduce the risk of a foreign market contagion event (currencies/debt). In my opinion, that is the only reason the Fed lowered rates. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
ECONOMICS:USGDPLong
by BradMatheny
$GBIRYY CPI (August/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY CPI Data (August/2024) 'UK Inflation Rate Steady at 2.2%' source: Office for National Statistics - Annual inflation rate ( ECONOMICS:GBIRYY ) in the UK steadied at 2.2% in August 2024, the same as in July, and in line with expectations. The largest upward contribution came from air fares while the biggest downward contributions came from prices for motor fuels, and restaurants and hotels. Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%, following a 0.2% fall in July and also matching expectations.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
SPX direction after first and last FED rate cutsThis chart compares FED rate cuts to SPX chart. The last 3 times after the first rate cuts there was a slight upward rally of the SP500 of about 5-10%, before going on a bearish retrace of about -40%, -50% & -20%, and then bottoming out only AFTER the final rate cut. Based on this, if history repeats, there might be a year end upward movement in the stock market, perhaps followed by a retrace through 2025 until the final rate cut. And then massively up from there again. The last 3 times rate cuts did not mean sp500 starts going up immediately. There was a retrace instead. SP500 went up only AFTER the final rate cut.
FRED:FEDFUNDSShort
by strip
Yield Curve Reversion Trade 2024The yield curve reversion is when the US10Y Treasury Yield becomes greater than the US2Y Treasury Yield and has a track record for signalling recession. I've been tracking the reversion for the past two years for any hint of sense of whether the US FED would cut FEDFUNDS rates or if bond traders would drive yields/prices towards reversion. This time, the fed's narrative is driving the reaction here. To express this idea I've put on long CBOT_MINI:10Y1! and short CBOT_MINI:2YY1! via the futures market. I'll keep rolling the futures contracts until the yield curve starts to form a top, likely a spread value between 1.5-3.0.
FRED:T10Y2YLong
by pb0316
M2 supply seasonality - sell in may & go away until OctoberUsing this formula: (FRED:M2SL+ECONOMICS:EUM2+ECONOMICS:JPM2+ECONOMICS:CNM2+ECONOMICS:INM2+ECONOMICS:GBM2+ECONOMICS:CAM2)/100000000000000 This formula includes US, EU, GB, CAN, JP, In & CN M2 money supply. You can clearly see M2 money supply seasonality changes, rounding consolidation from June1st & going up starting from October. Every time - for the last 5 years very clearly. More global liquidity should drive the markets up.
FRED:M2SLLong
by strip
2