The Phillips Curve with SPY(Inflation/Unemployment)I had read something on the, "Phillips Curve"
From Investopedia
"The concept behind the Phillips curve states the change in unemployment within an economy has a predictable effect on price inflation. The inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation is depicted as a downward sloping, concave curve, with inflation on the Y-axis and unemployment on the X-axis. Increasing inflation decreases unemployment, and vice versa. Alternatively, a focus on decreasing unemployment also increases inflation, and vice versa.
3
The belief in the 1960s was that any fiscal stimulus would increase aggregate demand and initiate the following effects. Labor demand increases, the pool of unemployed workers subsequently decreases and companies increase wages to compete and attract a smaller talent pool. The corporate cost of wages increases and companies pass along those costs to consumers in the form of price increases.
This belief system caused many governments to adopt a "stop-go" strategy where a target rate of inflation was established, and fiscal and monetary policies were used to expand or contract the economy to achieve the target rate. However, the stable trade-off between inflation and unemployment broke down in the 1970s with the rise of stagflation, calling into question the validity of the Phillips curve"
I just wanted to get a grasp of the concept myself
Economy
RECESSION PROABILITY SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASES JAN - JUN 202410Y/2Y Yield Spread & Unemployment Rate
Originally shared back in July 2023 (see below charts)
Its interesting to see that the yield curve is rising fast (up towards the 0 level)
We are reaching into dangerous recessionary territory. No guarantees, just a significantly increased probability.
Continuous jobless claims are reaching pre-recession warning levels in both time and volume. Meaning more and more people are becoming unemployed and remaining unemployed for longer. More info in links below.
The average interest rate pause timeframe is closing in fast at June 2024 also(Contained in Charts below also).
Its time to pay very close attention. The initial 6 months of this year
Stay safe out there
PUKA
U.S. Core PCE Comes in Lower than Expected U.S Core PCE (FEDS FAVOURITE METRIC)
Rep: 2.9% ✅ Lower Than Expected ✅
Exp: 3.0%
Prev: 3.2%
U.S. Headline PCE
Rep: 2.6% ✅ In Line with Expectations ✅
Exp: 2.6%
Prev: 2.6%
Historical Core PCE Norms
On the chart you can see that since 1990 the typical Core PCE range is between 1 - 3% (red dotted lines on chart). We are slowly getting back down into this more historically moderate level. We have just fallen below the 3% level and down into the historically moderate zone for PCE levels.
The Federal Reserve have advised that Core PCE is expected to decline to 2.2% by 2025 & finally reach its 2% target in 2026. At this rate we might reach 2% a little sooner than that.
For the full breakdown of the Core and Headline PCE and to know the differences between PCE and CPI, please review the Macro Monday I previously released which explains it all (in the comments below).
PUKA
ECB maintains interest rate at 4.50% but for how long? History of prior EU Rate pauses:
4 months | Oct 00 - Apr 01
12 months | Jun 07 - Jun 08
3 months | Jul - Oct 2011
4 months | Sept 2023 - Present ⏳SO FAR⏳
At least they could say that this is not the shortest one ever now that we are into month 4.
Historical Average: 6 months (March 2024)
Interestingly this is when the Bank Term Funding Program in the US is ending which was providing liquidity to the banks. It might be a case of one foset gets turned off and another gets turned on.
PUKA
The risk manager – putting the US Treasury’s QRA on the radar While the US500 and NAS100 juggernaut rolls on and the VIX index remains under 13%, we ask what could derail this risk rally.
One event which has shown form through 2023 as a market mover is the US Treasury’s QRA (Quarterly Refunding Announcement).
For background the ‘QRA’ – or Quarterly Refinancing Announcement – is where the US Treasury Department announce and quantify its financing needs for the quarter ahead, as well as the composition and breakdown of T-bill and bond issuance.
In effect, the QRA could be a complete non-event for markets, or conversely result in a repeat of the powerful moves that we saw in both episodes in August and November - where the US Treasury’s (UST) QRA marked major turning points and trending conditions across bond, equity, and FX markets.
In the art of risk management, the QRA is an event worth monitoring.
Dates for the risk diary
On 29 January the UST announce its financing estimates for the period ahead. 2 days later (31 Jan) we get the breakdown of issuance and USD amount per maturity that they plan to target – this is key.
Coincidentally, just to spice things up, the breakdown of the USTs bond issuance falls on the same day as the FOMC meeting.
The August 2023 QRA case study
In August 2023 the US Treasury detailed they would finance its ballooning fiscal deficit by issuing a greater amount of longer-term US Treasuries than what was expected. With the Fed no longer a buyer of US Treasuries and Japan and China reducing its UST holdings, the highly price-sensitive private sector was asked to take down the increased bond supply.
The result was a sharp sell-off in the US 10yr Treasury, with yields rising from 4% to 5%. As US bond yields soared the S&P500 fell from 4600 to 4100, while the USD index (DXY) rallied by over 5%.
The November 2023 QRA case study
Turn to the following QRA in November 2023 and the US Treasury was keen to curb the sell-off in Treasuries, and a rising interest expense bill - subsequently announcing they would finance its fiscal shortfall away from longer-term bonds and towards US T-bills (debt instruments with maturities of less than 12 months).
While we can also attribute some of the move in markets to the Fed ‘pivot’ and rising expectations of a rate-cutting cycle, amid a soft landing – the move towards ultra short-term T-bill issuance saw the US 10yr yield trend to 3.78%, largely driven by term premium falling from +40bp to -45bp. Subsequently, the DXY fell 6% and the S&P500 rallied 16%.
Watch RRP balances
The RRP facility is an important monetary policy tool for the Fed, as it sets a floor on short-term interest rates (repo, money markets). With money market funds holding a preference to buy US T-bills at govt auctions, over investing in the RRP facility, we’ve seen a consistent drawdown in the level of the RRP facility to $639.56b (search this on TradingView under code – RRPONTSYD).
There are growing concerns that should RRP balances fall below $200b it may start to cause real stress in market funding rates, which as we saw in 2019 would have significantly negative implications for broad market sentiment.
Many consider SOFR (Secured Overnight Finance rate) to be the most important market rate of all, as it represents the cost of short-term financing. If SOFR rates move higher than the level the Fed pays banks to park their excess reserves on their balance sheet (currently 5.4%) – a tool used to put a ceiling on short-term rates - it would show the Fed’s monetary policy levers are no longer functioning efficiently, and that the funding channels are broken.
Traders can monitor this on TradingView by using the code FRED:SOFR-FRED:IORB – should this push above 0bp and certainly above 10bp it will get great attention.
Break it down
So, the concern is if the UST keep its current funding needs to be skewed towards T-bills, then RRP balances will likely fall to worrying levels, funding costs could blow out and equities will take a bath with the USD rallying on safe-haven flows.
Conversely, if the US Treasury move to skew its borrowing needs towards long-term Treasury issuance, then term premium would rise and US 10yr Treasury yields would move higher, again taking the USD higher and equity lower – a re-run of the bearish moves we saw between August and October.
This is a very simplistic breakdown of what is a highly technical concept, but the mix of debt funding could cause some short-term gyrations and it potential result in an earlier end to QT.
Given the US deficit is a growing market and political issue, how it’s funded matters for markets - One for the radar.
EURO Area Consumer Confidence - Confidence SLUMPSEURO Area Consumer Confidence - ECONOMICS:EUCCI
The lower the minus figure on this chart the better the confidence is in the EU area (closer to zero the better).
Rep: -16.10 🚨 Worse than Expected🚨
Exp: -14.30
Pre: -15.00
The Chart
▫️ We have a long term general downtrend in EU Consumer Confidence since 1985.
▫️ Prior to recessions we formed lower highs (red arrows on the chart)
▫️ We have not made a new all time high since Jan 2000
▫️ Confidence has currently stalled and turned slightly lower coming in lower than expectations of -14.3 and instead coming in at -16.10.
What's driving the data and how to read it?
The Consumer Economic Sentiment Indicator (Consumer ESI) gauges the optimism levels among consumers in the EU. Conducted through phone surveys, the indicator encompasses 23,000 households, with variable sample sizes across the region. The survey includes questions on the current economic and financial conditions, savings intentions, and expectations related to consumer price indexes, the general economic situation, and major purchases of durable goods.
The Consumer ESI is measured on a scale from -100 to 100, where -100 represents an extreme lack of confidence, 0 signifies neutrality, and 100 indicates an extreme level of confidence.
Final Word
The ESI indicator provides valuable insights into consumer sentiment, reflecting perceptions and expectations that can influence economic behavior and decision-making in the EU.
Consumer sentiment is low in Europe with sentiment remaining below March 2022 levels with little sign of recovery as it stands coming in lower than expectations.
Obviously with the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, EU migrant crisis and Germany having full year of GDP decline for 2023 (Europe's largest economy), one can understand why the sentiment is so low. WE can watch for a turning point and a new high lower than -15 for a change in the right direction.
PUKA
Macro Monday 30~U.S. Net Treasury International Capital FlowsMacro Monday 30
U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows
In essence the U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows (US TIC Flows) refer to the movement of funds into or out of the United States through the purchase or sale of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign investors and governments. These flows of capital are an essential component of the overall balance of payments, reflecting the financial transactions between the United States and the rest of the world.
What does the data represent exactly?
The U.S. Treasury International Capital (TIC) system is compiled by the U.S. Department of the Treasury and provides information on cross-border financial transactions. The TIC data include details on purchases and sales of various U.S. financial assets and liabilities, such as Treasury securities, corporate bonds, equities, and banking flows.
In simple terms the Foreign Purchases of U.S. Securities (inflows) are taken away from the U.S. Purchases of Foreign Securities (outflows) to present a overall net figure. The net result of these two components determines whether there is a net inflow or outflow of capital.
What are the drivers of positive & negative flows?
Positive Flows (>0 on chart)
POSITIVE FLOWS in U.S Net Treasury International Capital result from factors such as attractive U.S. interest rates, a stable domestic economy, and global uncertainty that drives foreign investors to seek the safety of U.S. Treasury securities. During these periods, there is a net inflow of capital into the United States pressing the number higher above zero.
Negative Flows (<0 on chart)
Conversely, NEGATIVE FLOWS occur when other countries offer higher returns, there are concerns about the U.S. economic outlook, or global risk aversion prompts investors to repatriate funds. Exchange rate movements also play a role, as a stronger U.S. dollar can make U.S. assets less appealing.
The interplay of the above mentioned factors influences the direction of international capital flows, which impacts the balance of purchases and sales of U.S. Treasury securities by foreign and domestic investor.
Now that we have a general sense of what’s driving the data, and what makes an overall net positive and or net negative flow, let’s have a look at the chart.
The Chart
✅ Since Jan 2019 there has been an upward trend in Treasury Inflows into the U.S (Black Arrow).
❌This upward trend had one sudden interruption causing a decline from Mar - May 2023 going from positive inflows of $114B to negative outflows of $159.4B, the timing of which coincided with the 2023 U.S Banking Crisis where three small-to-mid size U.S. banks failed.
✅ Since the Banking Crisis in May 2023 Treasury Capital flows have moved from overall negative outflows of $159.4B to overall positive inflows of $260.2B. A major turn around and reversion to the long term trend.
✅The recent surge in positive inflows to $260.2B are the highest recorded since August 2022 ($275B)
In summary inflows to U.S Treasuries have been in an general uptrend since January 2019 with one brief interruption from Mar – May 2023 and inflows have increased significantly in recent months and look like they may be about to take out the Aug 2022 highs.
Recession Patterns
1. More isolated recessions that were not globally systemic events led to positive net inflows into the U.S. Treasury however larger global events led to outflows from U.S. Treasuries, particularly if those global events involved the U.S. engaging in foreign conflicts.
▫️ During the DotCom Crash (No. 3 on the chart) – The tech sector was badly hit but it was not necessarily a global recession with the associated geopolitical turmoil. Foreign investors sought safety in the U.S. Treasury Market during this time.
▫️ Similarly during the brief Gulf War Recession (No. 4 on the chart) you can see that initially, there was increased net inflows however in Jan 1991 inflows sharply turned to outflows which coincided with the U.S. led invasion of Kuwait (a response to Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait). This was considered a global event and thus led to an exodus of outflows and repatriation of funds from the U.S Treasury Market.
▫️ More recently during the Great Financial Crisis (no. 2 on the chart) and the COVID-19 Crash (No. 1 on the chart) there was a significant outflow from U.S. Treasuries due to the magnitude of these global events. You can imagine foreign market participants clawing funds back into their respective countries to batten the hatches and get into a defensive financial position with global systemic risks high. Better to have a bird in the hand than two in the bush when the bush is on fire.
▫️One other pattern worth mentioning is highlighted in yellow on the chart with an A, B and C. Prior to the Great Financial Crisis and COVID-19 crashes we first had a reduction in overall U.S. Net Treasuries of $373B (A on chart) and $393B (B on chart), respectively. Within 13 to 16 months of both treasure drawdowns we had a recession. We recently had a drop of $437B (C on chart) which ended in May 2023. If history repeats and we had a recession within 13-16 months of this happening, this would be sometime between June and Sept 2024. An alternative view would be that the increase in declines from $373B (A) to $393B (B) to $437B (C) may correspond with the shortening timeframes from 16 months(A) to 13 months(B) to potentially 10 months(C) for the current $437B drop (C on the chart). This would suggest March/April 2024 as a potential recession timeframe (based on the historic reductive time pattern).
The U.S. Net Treasury International Capital Flows is a fascinating chart to keep an eye on and should be added to the economic data armory as it will help us interpret what is really going on in the treasury market (there is a lot of false narratives out there ATM). It is also useful in informing us on what the global perspective is in terms of systemic risk vs isolated risk, and also from a historic recessionary standpoint offers value.
The best investors in the world call the bond market the market of truth but I have found it hard to find a chart that illustrates this through a global lens UNTIL today. This chart captures that beautifully.
Thanks for coming along again
PUKA
$RUGRES 'August/2023 Accumulation'ECONOMICS:RUGRES
The latest data from the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) International Financial Statistics (IFS) report shows that Russia’s central bank increased its gold reserves in August, restoring reserves back to previous levels from earlier this year.
“IMF IFS data shows gold reserves at the Central Bank of Russia rose by 3 tonnes in August,” according to Krishan Gopaul, Senior Analyst at the World Gold Council.
Analysts reacted positively to the data, but some raised questions regarding Russia's gold production and where the precious metal is going.
U.S. Building Permits U.S Building Permits
Rep: 1.495m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅
Exp: 1.480m
Prev: 1.467m
This chart is very similar to the Housing Starts chart I just shared in that it is in a long term uptrend since March 2009 (slightly before above charts April 2009). However there are a few differences. The drop in permits now versus 1998-2000 period is much much sharper.
Like the U.S Housing Starts chart, lets watch the diagonal support and see IF we get a change of trend.
What are U.S. Building Permits
U.S. building permits are official approvals granted by local government authorities that authorize the construction, alteration, or demolition of structures within a specified jurisdiction.
Worth noting that I shared the below chart earlier this week that seems to illustrate a sharp drop in New Home Sales which coincides with the sharp drop in permits above. Interestingly Existing homes sales appear to be increasing with this drop new home sales.
Potentially with more existing homes (old supply) coming onto the market this may present a headwind for new permits and new homes going forward.
With existing supply coming onto the market, you would think that this might help lower house prices, however demand and lower interest rates could offset this. Fascinating to watch this all play out
Happy Thursday
PUKA
U.S. Housing Starts U.S. Housing Starts
Rep: 1,460m ✅Higher Than Expected ✅
Exp: 1.426m
Prev: 1.525m (revised down from 1.560m)
The chart illustrates that we are on a long term uptrend since April 2009 and this looks like a pull back similar to the pull back from 1998 - 2000 but on a large scale.
If we lose the diagonal support I think this would show a real shift in the structure and trend.
What’s included in U.S. Housing Starts?
U.S. Housing Starts refer to the number of new residential construction projects on which construction has begun during a specific period, usually reported on a monthly basis. The data includes Single-Family homes, Multifamily homes (apartments), Building Permits (houses approved with construction not necessarily started by likely imminent) and house build completions.
HAVE A FUPPIN GREAT DAY
PUKA
U.S New Mortgage Applications Spike in Jan (they always do thou)Hi Guys,
Just a quick observation that the current spike in U.S. Mortgage Applications is positive but you can see that it is a fairly consistent trend over the past four years and should probably be taken with a pinch of salt until we see how subsequent months perform.
PUKA
PMI the last drop into march 2024The chart posted is the PMI and the green up arrows are when the PMI turned up . What also happened was the stock market began rather strong up moves at or within 60 days of the Up turn. The pmi is telling me we have been in a RECESSION and the treasury to mask the recession as been funding the Quarterly with T Bill .I look for the drop in the markets rather soon . And I also look to Yellen to do this with the fed at the same time dropping rates 25 basis by late march of may cycle . This is only being done to make sure they try everything they can do to stop yes I will say it TRUMP. 2025 the beginning of the phase seen 1937 to 1942 I am basis is the chart patterns and data from 1902 and money velocity data since 1913
Understanding Initial Jobless Claims as a Market IndicatorIntroduction
In the complex and multifaceted world of economic indicators, initial jobless claims hold a special place. As a measure of the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, this statistic offers a real-time glimpse into the health of the labor market, which in turn is a vital component of the overall economic landscape. This article delves into how initial jobless claims function as an indicator and their impact on the financial markets.
Understanding Initial Jobless Claims
Initial jobless claims refer to claims filed by individuals seeking to receive unemployment benefits after losing their job. These are reported weekly by the U.S. Department of Labor, providing a timely snapshot of labor market conditions. A lower number of claims typically signifies a strong job market, suggesting that fewer people are losing their jobs. Conversely, an increase in claims can indicate a weakening labor market, often a precursor to broader economic downturns.
Initial Jobless Claims as an Economic Indicator
Health of the Labor Market: The primary significance of initial jobless claims is its reflection of the labor market's health. A steady, low number of claims often correlates with job growth and declining unemployment rates, indicating a robust economy.
Leading Indicator for the Economy: As a leading economic indicator, jobless claims can provide early signals about the direction of the economy. Spikes in claims can forewarn of economic contraction, while consistent decreases might indicate economic expansion.
Consumer Spending: Since employment directly affects consumer income, initial jobless claims can also indirectly signal changes in consumer spending, a major driver of economic growth.
Impact on Financial Markets
Market Sentiment: Traders and investors closely watch initial jobless claims to gauge market sentiment. Fluctuations in these numbers can lead to immediate reactions in the stock, bond, and forex markets.
Monetary Policy Implications: Central banks, like the Federal Reserve, consider labor market conditions when setting monetary policy. Rising jobless claims can lead to a more dovish policy stance (like lowering interest rates), while decreasing claims might justify tightening policies.
Sector-Specific Implications: Certain sectors are more sensitive to changes in jobless claims. For instance, a rise in claims can negatively impact consumer discretionary stocks but might be favorable for defensive sectors like utilities or healthcare.
Analyzing the Data
Understanding initial jobless claims requires context. Seasonal factors, temporary layoffs, and unique economic events (like a pandemic) can skew data. Analysts often look at the four-week moving average to smooth out weekly volatilities for a clearer trend.
Conclusion
In conclusion, initial jobless claims serve as a crucial barometer for the economy and financial markets. Investors, policy makers, and economists alike monitor these figures for insights into labor market trends and the broader economic picture. As with any indicator, it's essential to consider jobless claims in conjunction with other data to fully understand the economic landscape.
MM29(b) - Existing Home Sales Versus New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales
Comparing the Charts
When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new housing.
In recent months there has been a sharp divergence in the opposite direction, particularly in NEW home sales, which plunged from 717k in Sept 2023 to 590k in Nov 2023. EXISTING Home Sales increased marginally from 3.79m in Oct 2023 to 3.82m in Nov 2023. Is this a turning point?
Obviously a combination of factors are at work here and its not just existing supply coming to the market that might be disrupting new home sales or vice versa but its interesting seeing this correlation and its something to keep an eye on for investors and policy makers. Sale of brand new homes creates a lot of economic activity and if sales are declining significantly whilst existing homes are starting to come back onto the market, one would presume it would stress the housing market and the economy. We may need reduced interest rates sooner rather than later to help fan the flames of the new housing market, or maybe its time the market takes a breather? What do you think? It certainly adds to the argument for lower rates sooner from the Federal Reserve to "soften the landing" or that divergence noted today.
Each Chart is covered separately in todays Macro Monday
PUKA
Macro Monday 29 - U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales U.S. Existing Home Sales & New Home Sales
U.S. Existing Home Sales
U.S. Existing Home Sales data helps us to gauge the strength of the U.S. housing market and is a key indicator of overall economic health in the U.S.
In simple terms U.S. Existing Home Sales is a seasonally adjusted record of previously owned homes that have been sold in the United States (per unit).
The monthly data report is released by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and It is a lagging indicator since people often make housing choices in response to a changes in interest rates (which would lead ahead of this dataset).
Decembers report will be released this Friday 19th Jan. I will update the chart then so we can see how the trend is developing.
The Chart
You can clearly see that we have been in a downtrend since October 2020 where we topped out at 6.73m units. Thereafter from Jan 2022 – October 2023 we fell precipitously from 6.34m down to 3.79m.
Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. went up 0.8% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 3.82m units in November 2023 (a turning point?), rising for the first time in five months, and rebounding from 3.79m in October which was the lowest level since August 2010.
Whilst we are waiting for December 2023 figures, the Jan – Mar 2024 figures will also provide a good sentiment gauge for the direction in 2024.
The chart has that look at present that it is basing here or potentially changing trend. Accessibility to existing homes is clearly low at present and one would think that low existing home sales clogs up the market and liquidity that might flow with it and the economy however, the low existing house sales also appears to create demand for New Homes which we will cover next.
U.S. New Home Sales
New Home Sales, also known as "new residential sales," is an economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes (seasonally adjusted for annualized figures).
The New Home Sales measure compiles data through interviews with home-builders and analysis of the U.S. Census Bureau's Survey of Construction. Specifically, it utilizes information on building permits issued for new construction projects. A home is considered part of the measure if a deposit was paid for its purchase or if a contract to purchase was signed within or after the year of its construction.
The construction of new homes contributes significantly to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the U.S. It involves spending on materials, labor, and various services, which can stimulate economic activity. New home sales data is a critical metric for assessing economic health, understanding employment trends, and gaining insights into the dynamics of the housing market.
The Chart
You can clearly see that we never really recovered after the 2005 peak of 1.39m units, however bottomed in 2011 and started making a slow climb from 273k to a 1.04m peak in August 2020. This remains the recent peak and has not been recovered.
An almost 50% reduction in New Home Sales followed reducing from 1.04m to 543k units over 23 months ending July 2022.
We are currently 10% above this level at 590k (for Nov) having rolled over in July 2023 from 728k.
The chart looks very concerning. Should we lose the diagonal and horizontal support with this month or next months data release, it could be very telling of a struggling new housing market. We have tested the horizontal support three times and you would hope that this would hold. Time will tell.
Comparing the Charts
Here is where it gets a little interesting.
When you look at both charts and compare them you can see that between June 2022 and Sept 2023 the decreasing EXISTING home sales negatively correlated with the increase in NEW home sales. This would make surface level sense given the lack of existing homes being available creating a need for new housing.
In recent months there has been a sharp divergence in the opposite direction, particularly in NEW home sales, which plunged from 717k in Sept 2023 to 590k in Nov 2023. EXISTING Home Sales increased marginally from 3.79m in Oct 2023 to 3.82m in Nov 2023. Is this a turning point?
Obviously a combination of factors are at work here and its not just existing supply coming to the market that might be disrupting new home sales or vice versa but its interesting seeing this correlation and its something to keep an eye on for investors and policy makers. Sale of brand new homes creates a lot of economic activity and if sales are declining significantly whilst existing homes are starting to come back onto the market, one would presume it would stress the housing market and the economy. We may need reduced interest rates sooner rather than later to help fan the flames of the new housing market, or maybe its time the market takes a breather? What do you think? It certainly adds to the argument for lower rates sooner from the Federal Reserve to "soften the landing" or that divergence noted today.
On Macro Monday 21 we covered the NAHB Housing Market Index and its close correlation to U.S Housing Starts. If you enjoyed this read today, you should take a look at that. They are two useful additions that give another view. I'll throw the link in the comments.
Thanks for coming along again 🤓 if you enjoyed this or found it informative please let me know
PUKA
SOLOS-CHART2013(KAFKA)1. Lines representing the money supply metrics for the United States (US M2 - blue line) and the central banks for Japan (JP M2 - purple line) and the European Union (EU M2 - dotted purple line), charted against the left vertical axis as percentages. The money supply data shows a significant increase over time, especially notable during the time period that aligns with the COVID-19 pandemic where expansionary monetary policies were common.
2. A comparison of currency pair exchange rates, charted against the right vertical axis in terms of index values: EUR/JPY (red line), JPM2/EUM2 (green line), and USD/JPY (orange line). These pairs reflect the value of the euro and the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, and the ratio between the Japanese and European money supply measures.
Latest Solos-Chart(KAFKA)1. Lines representing the money supply metrics for the United States (US M2 - blue line) and the central banks for Japan (JP M2 - purple line) and the European Union (EU M2 - dotted purple line), charted against the left vertical axis as percentages. The money supply data shows a significant increase over time, especially notable during the time period that aligns with the COVID-19 pandemic where expansionary monetary policies were common.
2. A comparison of currency pair exchange rates, charted against the right vertical axis in terms of index values: EUR/JPY (red line), JPM2/EUM2 (green line), and USD/JPY (orange line). These pairs reflect the value of the euro and the U.S. dollar against the Japanese yen, and the ratio between the Japanese and European money supply measures.
Core and Headline Producer Price Index (PPI) Release Core and Headline PPI (Dec 2023 figures)
U.S. Headline PPI
Prev: 0.8% / Exp: 1.3%
Rep: 1.0% ✅ Lower than expected ✅
U.S. Core PPI (excludes food and energy)
Prev: 2.0% / Exp: 1.9%
Rep: 1.8% ✅ Lower Than Expected✅
What is PPI and why is it important?
Producer Price Index is a crucial economic indicator that provides valuable information about inflationary pressures at the producer level. By tracking changes in producer prices over time, it provides insights into inflation trends before they manifest in consumer prices.
Difference between Core and Headline PPI
The Core PPI aims to provide a more stable measure of underlying inflation, while the headline index reflects all price changes, including those driven by more volatile components such as food an energy. You can see from the chart that Headline PPI in red is the swings more widely up and down due to the inclusion of these volatile components (food and energy).
✅ LOWER THAN EXPECTED PPI TODAY✅
Core and Headline PPI came in lower than expected this month and as you can see we are reaching down into the historically more moderate zone between 3% and -1.5%. This bodes will for inflationary pressures in general and may be an early indicator of lower Core and Headline inflation figures (for CPI) in the coming months.
PUKA