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Economy

🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️ Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level. LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳 The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise. POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉 Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.
FRED:DRTSCILMShort
by TintinTrading
Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soonSome points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event): 1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining. 2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month. 3. Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC red) and Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue) just fell slightly. 4. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims) And just announced today, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations. Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future. Of course that's provided we don't see another slew of bank failures, and that Congress can agree a new debt limit.
FRED:JTSJOL
by lavoriamo
The German Unemployment Rate will grow again...The German Unemployment Rate will grow again... With data from around 75 years, there is a possibility for growing again. With all these negative consequences for the employed people and their families. We must answer the question whether the Elliott Wave Theory is the right item to analyse what will happen and behave with crowds of people. The theory always leads to good results, but analysing and ...later believing is difficult. The yellow circle shows equality in market behavior. And passing the point A in red (first circle in yellow) during the mid sixties we saw a growing rate. There is a fear this happened again. Faster and higher. And that will be for the politicians and the employees with their families a big (!) economic problem.
ECONOMICS:DEUR
by armandogui
M2SL | Mo Money Mo Problems!Oh boy, many of them problems... Sometimes there are cycles, some cycles are shorter than others. In chart analysis, we are familiar when we analyze trends. Either short term or long term. The economy does not function only in trends. There are cycles. The most common / important of cycles is the yearly one. Unfortunately, cyclic patterns may prove tricky to analyze. But they are very important. Since I haven't taken the time to create TradingView indicators that calculate cycles, I will instead use a spreadsheet. For the following charts, I basically take all historical data of a cyclic chart and export that data. For every week or month, I calculate the average distance from the mean. With that, I try to calculate the "expected distance" from the mean, for each time of the year. Natural Gas prices one might say, are lower during the summer months. So an unusually high price in summer may become explosive during the winter. Today's main subject will be money supply. Since the January's M2SL data hasn't yet updated, I will try to guess how much money supply we can expect the following months. There is a cousin to the M2SL index which is updated weekly, and it is WM2NS. This index however as you can see on the chart above fluctuates from M2SL throughout the year. So, the regular WM2NS price should be adjusted based on it's cycle against M2SL. This curve shows the expected yearly fluctuation of the ratio, compared to the mean, Specific care has to be taken when we calculate the "fundamental cycle duration". Some cycles last 2 months, 3 months, or 6 months. The fundamental cycle of the economy is 3 months which repeats 4 times during the year. While this may prove irrelevant, It is incredibly important in the "cycle spectrum" creation. If we consider a 1M duration of the fundamental cycle, the chart isn't as representative as the 2M one. The Diesel / Gasoline cycle is incredible. This comes to prove that these two are highly correlated. With the same method we can compare gasoline price with crude oil price. For fuel prices, it seems that the end of the year can serve as a good baseline for the outcome of the next year. Absolute and relative are at their minimum in this time of year. Similar charts can be drawn for DJI. While more chaotic (wider error lines), weeks 10 and 44 (March and October-November) appear as the weakest periods of the year. So what M2SL price can we expect in the following days? I am an impatient man, I cannot wait for the results!!! After a substantial drop in money supply, one might fear that further downside is to follow. There are charts that calm such fears. Price has never touched the Quadratic Kernel indicator (a form of historic moving-average), and it may never touch it. When RRPONTTLD increases, money supply decreases (I am oversimplifying because I don't know the exact specifics). Bullish stochastics may signal more upside for money supply. Finally, I will analyze the protagonist chart: Suddenly, the 1.2% increaase doesn't sound that extraordinary... Sometimes, a simplistic analysis like this one above, may prove correct like this one below: Final thought: With inflation higher than expected and money supply about to increase yet again, how high of an inflation can we expect? With commodities bull-flagging against money supply itself, and Bitcoin bull-flagging against the Tech-Bubble, things can get pretty bad for equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori PS. I have analyzed several cycles for different kinds of commodities. If you are interested ask me so as to post them.
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
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