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Chile Inflation rate compared with United StatesDisclaimer: This is only a probability based in personal analysis, never represent a decisión of investment. This image compare inflation rate between Chile and United States. Particularly Chile represent in the future a pick elevation of inflation to level 5. This situation increase value of foods aditioned with low disponibility of water. Chile is represented with blue line. United States is represented with light blue line. Difficult situation to Chile.
ECONOMICS:CLIRYYLong
by Baldecchi
1
Correlation study: 10-year real interest rate vs. AAPL (1983 - )Apple share price (AAPL) plot above, inverted real rates (0-REAINTRATREARAT10Y) plot below + 1M 200ma, from 1983 to 2023. Results: -Strong inverse correlation with 10-year real interest rates and AAPL share price. -Real rates < 2 % positively correlate with stronger AAPL returns. -10-year real interest rates bounced from the 2 % level in September 2022 ... May 2023. "‘John Bull’, says someone, ‘can stand a great deal, but he cannot stand two percent. . ." - Walter Bagehot, 1852
FRED:REAINTRATREARAT10Y
by Smitty61
1
S&P 500 EMA Cross: 200 EMA Likely to Cross Back Above 500 EMAThe S&P 500 has been in a downtrend for the past few months. However, I believe that the market is about to reverse course and start moving higher. It has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a bullish pattern that is often followed by a significant move higher. The 10-day moving average has crossed above the 20-day moving average. The 200-day moving average (EMA) is about to cross back above the 500-day EMA. This is a bullish signal that suggests that the momentum in the market is shifting to the upside. The price could find support on top of the 10 and 20ema if it moves down when it reaches the 4.400 zone. This is because the 10 and 20ema are moving averages that have historically provided support for the price. If the price is able to find support on top of these moving averages, it could move higher.
FRED:SP500Long
by Crypto_Castle23
Central banks navigate the last stretch of the tightening cycleThis week we learnt how vital Central Bank communication is to global financial markets. The trio of central banks – The Federal Reserve (Fed), European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ) held their respective meetings. Each of the central banks tried to convey how they will navigate monetary policy amidst a slowing economy and avoid a hard landing. China takes small steps to shore up the recovery Even the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) surprised the markets this week, by announcing a cut in the 7-day Open Market Operations (OMO) by 10Bps to 1.9%1 which paved the way for another cut to the one-year medium term lending facility rate by 10Bps to 2.65%2. These recent developments mark a more proactive stance by Chinese policy makers in trying to tackle the Chinese slowdown in activity since the re-opening. Clearly more is needed. Policymakers are soliciting opinions from business leaders and economists on how to revitalise the economy in a number of urgent meetings3. While the Fed and ECB are trying to tame inflation, China has the opposite problem as inflation remains low. Manufacturing remains weak, exports are slowing, and credit growth is cooling. This is why it’s no surprise that the markets are prepping for a broader package of stimulus targeted towards the ailing property sector. A hawkish skip for the Fed The recent flurry of economic reports continues to show the US economy is holding up but losing steam, supporting the Fed’s approach of changing the pace of its policy tightening. The Fed kept the fed funds rate in range of 5-5.25%, by unanimous vote, in line with market expectations after 10 straight hikes dating back to March 2022. The Fed’s dot plot showed the median rate at 5.6% versus 5.1% a month back. In the summary of economic projections, the median unemployment rate forecast was revised lower from 4.5% to 4.1% by the end of 2023 while the core inflation rate was revised higher from 3.6% to 3.9% making the case for more hikes this year. This clearly was a hawkish skip. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell was careful to point out that no decision was made on a July hike, but he did say it is a live meeting, leading the market to increase the probability of a move. What surprised me the most, was that Powell said rate cuts would be a couple of years out which is at odds with the dot plot forecast of 100Bps of cuts in 2024. Senior Economist to WisdomTree Jeremy Siegel believes the Fed is done hiking and that alternative inflation metrics which incorporate real time housing inputs show inflation running at 1.4% instead of 4.1%. This is based on alternative shelter inflation calculations using Case Shiller Housing and Zillow rent annualized at 0.5% instead of the 8% that is biasing Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) CPI higher. ECB’s revised inflation forecasts remain at odds After raising the deposit rate by 25Bps to 3.5%, the ECB was a lot clearer than the Fed in signalling that rate hikes are almost certain next month on July 27. The ECB remains too optimistic on growth, reducing their projection for 2023 real GDP to only 0.9% (from 1% in its March projections). While I would agree with the ECB’s view that (1) mostly labour-intensive services will support economic growth over the next two years and (2) the current hump in wage inflation will show up via higher prices for these services, I remain sceptical amidst the global headwinds for manufacturing, and a slower pace of overall growth could keep inflation as high as the ECB now projects. While wages are likely to accelerate slightly above 5% in 2023, they should begin declining to 4% yoy by late 2024. We believe, if core inflation continues to recede in the coming months and the real economy grows at 0.4% in 2023, the ECB will stay put in September after a final move next month. As expected, the ECB confirmed that it will stop to reinvest proceeds from maturing bonds under its standard Asset Purchase Programme (APP) from July onwards. It won’t offer new long term liquidity injections upon the expiry of the €477Bn of a TLTRO III liquidity measure on 28 June 2023. BOJ sits tight As expected, the BOJ kept all key policy settings unchanged, including the +/-50Bps band around the zero% Japanese Government Bond JGB yield target. Since taking the helm in April 2023, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has stressed the high cost of premature tightening as the economy is finally seeing green shoots toward sustainable inflation. In contrast to the ECB, the BoJ's latest assessment and outlook for the economy and inflation were also largely unchanged from their update in the April Outlook Report. The BoJ continues to note "extremely high uncertainties" surrounding economies and financial markets at home and abroad." Japanese equity markets reacted positively to the BOJ’s status quo stance on monetary policy. Looking ahead, the Fed’s potential pivot back to a hawkish mode versus the BOJ’s dovish perseverance could pave the way for further upside for Japanese equities owing to the underlying weakness in the Yen versus the US dollar. Sources 1 Bloomberg on June 13, 2023 2 Bloomberg on June 15, 2023 3 Bloomberg on June 14, 2023
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by aneekaguptaWTE
Fed Liquidity Pump-- the fix is in-- Oh no? Oh no! Oh YEAA! Recently, experienced financial analyst/economist Michael Howell (see footnote 1) has made the case that central bank liquidity (and to a lesser degree, private sector liquidity) is what drives risk-on markets ( NASDAQ:QQQ , KRAKEN:BTCUSD ). While Dr. Howell uses his own deep analysis to predict that liquidity is now in an uptrend (see any of his numerous video interviews over the past 3 months on youtube), we point out that Elliot Waves have successfully predicted past liquidity changes (2012-2019), and that we now have a new Elliot Wave set up targeting a 35% rise in liquidity over the coming 24 months! Based on a reading of Dr. Howell's material, we can approximate Fed-sourced liquidity roughly by using a formula that makes use of the following weekly data-points: FRED:WALCL (Federal Reserve Balance Sheet) FRED:WDTGAL (US Treasury General Account) FRED:RRPONTSYD ("Reverse Repo" facility) " But but... the recession! " " But but... earnings! " " But but... CPI still over 2% " Will risk-on markets follow liquidity, or will they follow the main street economy? Dr. Howell and Elliot Waves point to the former! footnote 1: Founded CrossBorder Capital in 1996. Michael developed the quantitative liquidity research methodology while he was Research Director at Salomon Bros. from 1986. He was subsequently appointed Head of Research at Baring Securities in 1992, and was top-ranked “Emerging Market Strategist” by institutional investors for the three years prior to setting up CrossBorder Capital. Michael has worked in financial markets since 1981 and is a regular international conference speaker. He is a qualified US Supervisory Analyst and has a Doctorate in Economics. (from crossbordercapital.com)
FRED:WALCLLong
by BtcPowUpdate
IEA’s bullish outlook for electric vehicles “A new clean energy economy is emerging, and it is emerging much faster than many stakeholders, policymakers, industry players, and investors think today” – Fatih Birol, Executive Director, IEA during the Global EV Outlook 2023 press event on 26 April 2023. The International Energy Agency (IEA) published its Global Electric Vehicle Outlook for 2023 on 26 April. Its assessment of the state of the industry is encouraging and its projections for the industry’s growth are exciting. Electrification of road transportation is the disruptive innovation the industry has been waiting for. It appears that the tipping point has been reached. Highlights from 2022, and developments in 2023 Electric vehicle (EV) sales exceeded 10 million in 2022 (see Figure 1). This amounts to 14% of all new cars sold in 2022, up from 9% in 2021, and less than 5% in 2020. This trend has continued at the start of 2023 with over 2.3m EVs sold in the first quarter, 25% more than the same period last year. By the end of the year, sales could hit 14 million with an acceleration expected in the second half of the year1. China remains the dominant market, accounting for around 60% of global electric car sales last year, with Europe and the United States following behind. Nonetheless, there are promising signs of growth in emerging markets such as India, Thailand, and Indonesia where sales of electric cars last year more than tripled compared to 2021. The key tailwinds Policy support for the adoption of electric vehicles has never been stronger and it continues to strengthen. The European Union has set out CO2 standards for cars and vans aligned with 2030 goals set out in the Fit for 55 package. In the US, the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and California’s Advanced Clean Cars II rule could accelerate the journey to 50% EV market share by 20302. Given strong support from policymakers and adoption from consumers, innovation in battery manufacturing also appears to have been catalysed. While it is a given that battery chemistries will continue to evolve and greater levels of efficiency will be achieved, developments along the way, such as CATL’s recent condensed battery launch, are noteworthy and encouraging. On 19 April 2023, the Chinese battery manufacturer CATL, among the biggest names in the industry worldwide, unveiled a high-energy density, so-called ‘condensed battery’ at Auto Shanghai. CATL claims that this battery could not only meaningfully increase the range of EV batteries but could also help electrify passenger aircraft. Admittedly, there are multiple unknowns in CATL’s claims, including costs and delivery times, but it highlights how battery manufacturers are focused on achieving new degrees of efficiency. Growing competition and, therefore, more choice for consumers is also facilitating the adoption of EVs. The number of electric car models worldwide exceeded 500 in 2022, more than double compared to 20183. While this is still significantly lower than the number of internal combustion engine (ICE) models on the market, this proliferation of models is increasing competition among original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) which should help bring costs down. Electrification, however, is going beyond passenger cars. In 2022, over half of India’s three-wheeler registrations were electric. Similarly, electric light commercial vehicle sales worldwide increased by more than 90% in 2022 compared to the year before4. Such encouraging growth is also being witnessed in other market segments like electric heavy-duty trucks and buses. The forecast Even in the IEA’s stated policies scenario (STEPS – a conservative scenario which only factors in existing policies), growth of electric vehicles is expected to be strong this decade (see Figure 2). Across the globe, countries are swiftly introducing bans on the sale of new ICE vehicles. Some countries, like Norway, have taken the lead by making this ban effective from 2025. For many other countries, the bans come into effect between 2030 and 2040. Collectively, therefore, it is reasonable to expect a meaningful uptick in EV sales as we progress towards those deadlines. One of the biggest hurdles in EV adoption is the availability of ample public charging infrastructure. Fortunately, charging infrastructure is developing quickly, albeit at different rates in different countries. Overall, however, the IEA have an optimistic view on the number of publicly available charging points worldwide by 2030. A renewed focus on the supply chain According to the IEA, automotive lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery demand increased by about 65% to 550 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022, from about 330 GWh in 2021, primarily because of growth in electric passenger car sales. In 2022, about 60% of lithium, 30% of cobalt, and 10% of nickel demand was for EV batteries. Only five years prior, these shares were around 15%, 10% and 2%, respectively. Electric vehicles are not only driving demand for batteries, but also the underlying commodities. For investors, this means a holistic view of automotive and battery value chains is warranted when considering the electrification megatrend. For example, China holds a dominant position in both value chains and its role in terms of where it sits within the value chain is evolving rapidly. China is the biggest manufacturer of batteries worldwide but is also quickly establishing itself in the segment of car companies (OEMs) with the emergence of brands like BYD. But as competition increases, more regulation is introduced, and further innovation happens, supply chains will develop. Some links may get broken while others get formed. All in all, an exciting time to be following this space.
FRED:TOTALSA
by aneekaguptaWTE
Manipulation pushing higher inflation into the future. Inflation rate has been precisely manipulated to stay inside this triangle pushing the problem forward to the 2040's to 2050's. Important market corrections are dated for references. Look at the dates and compare with economic issues, inflation and market trading. There is a very narrow window moving forward into 2024 to 2025. The chart shows after 2025 the inflation rate will continue to creep up until the 2050's. Government manipulation is just pushing the issues forward 20 years or so. That makes since considering most of the people in charge will not have to deal with the fallout of their decisions. Almost everyone manipulating the us economy is over the age of 60 yrs old. Debt doesn't solve economic issues. US economy needs to move out of this debt and generate a strong wealthy economy. This publication is just for research purposes. Use as a tool and guide for your research. Thanks for reading.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by UnknownUnicorn35774657
Inflation will never stop...its time to short inflation 50%Inflation will never stop no matter how much money you make. Right now the cost of living avg is 50% too high for the current wages to keep supporting too much longer. homelessness and families moving in together to survive is already happening. The signs are out there for everyone to see and the government is playing with your lives. When wages increase so does the cost of living. Now the cost of living since the 1950's is too high to maintain in 2022 with current wages and 2023 will be worse. Unsustainable economic breakdown is coming and depression in society is at the highest i have ever seen it in my life time. Fuel shortages, Food shortages, high utility bills, taxes keep going up, government keeps overspending, times are tough for working families. United States Statistics for inflation and cost of living Year Median Home Value Median Rent Household Median Income Gas Prices vary by state this is the avg Avg wage per hour worked 1950 $7,400 $42 $2,990 $0.27 $0.75 1960 $11,900 $71 $4,970 $0.31 $1.15 1970 $17,000 $108 $8,734 $0.36 $1.50 1980 $47,200 $243 $17,710 $1.20 $3.10 1990 $79,100 $447 $29,943 $1.10 $4.25 2000 $119,600 $602 $55,030 $1.40 $5.15 2010 $221,800 $901 $49,445 $2.60 $7.25 2022 $428,700 $1295 - $2495 $78,075 $3.40 to $6.00 $7.25to $16.00 varies by state Federal Minimum Wage Information $5.15 - Sept. 1, 1997 $5.85 - July 24, 2007 $6.55 - July 24, 2008 $7.25 - July 24, 2009 Inflation and supply shortages keeps getting worse. I hear so much everyday from people and this is what people say to me when i ask. I don't make enough money to survive. Bank won't give me a loan. I don't make enough money this year to cover bills. I need things and the store doesn't have it or its too expensive for my budget. power bill too expensive. gas is too expensive. my car has been in shop for months and still not fixed. my bank won't refinance my home. i can't afford groceries because i no longer qualify for government "snap" benifits with my raise at work and i have 4 kids. I am losing my farm to drought and excess cost of fuel and supplies. Automated warehouses put my entire family out of business. several people came forward with police not doing there job while communities are getting robbed while they are at work. the covid epidemic cost me everything my home and my business. my health insurance went up and can no longer afford it. so many people out there struggling to survive and the normal services that help these people have exhausted there funding without any more support for the demand of help. i don't see an end to this economic struggle people are facing and its only going to get worse. Fed rates hikes, the covid pandemic and the countless defaulted loans and ongoing bankruptcies with inflation has banks refusing personal loans and refinancing to alot of people without collateral. All i can say is stick with the job you have and try to manage your finances carefully. resources are stretched thin and customer service everywhere has a high turnover rate with people that don't really know what they are doing. People are taking any job they can to survive and when they lose or find another job they move on and don't really care about the service they are providing. They are basically a third party for the companies and some have reported security violations that resulted in fraud to access individual finances. I'm not writing a book here so i will leave this info here for you reading to digest and research on your own. Maybe a post from you on social media or here with some resources to help others find the help they need. thx for reading
ECONOMICS:USIRYYShort
by UnknownUnicorn35774657