total public debt * fed fund rate / goldEven priced in gold, total public debt * fed fund rate is in at CRITICAL historical levels. GENERATIONAL BOTTOMS for gold are forged at these levels. #Gold #SilverShortby Badcharts4
Minimum Wages priced in OilWhile minimum wages have gone up over the years, they are not out pacing energy costs right now. Minimum Wages priced in Crude Oil. Breakdowns coincide with #Spx stagnation & bull era for #CrudeOil, #Gold, #Silver, #Uranium, #Copper and #Platinum.Shortby Badcharts2
GDP & Money SupplyThe trajectory of global GDP & Money Supply keeps going up. The World's GDP was 103.86 trillion in 2022 and is forecasted for 112.6 trillion in 2023. As of Nov. 28, 2022, the total global value of the M2 money supply is $82.6 trillion. Gross domestic product (GDP), is an estimate of the total value of goods and services produced in a country during a specified period, it is currently calculated yearly to understand the growth metrics of the country. The calculation is based on nominal GDP, also called GDP at current prices or in value. Countries by GDP is the single most indicator to capture economic activity of all the countries. The largest economies and top 10 countries by GDP in the world are United States, China, Japan, Germany, India, United Kingdom, France, Canada, Russia & Brazil. The United States economy is the largest in the world, measured by nominal GDP, followed by China, the world's second largest with annual growth that consistently outpaces the United States. Below is the latest top 20 list of Countries by GDP, ranked as per the economic activity of each country in 2023. Rank 2022 2023 2024 1 USA 25,035.164 26,185.210 27,057.202 2 China 18,321.197 19,243.974 20,699.148 3 Japan 4,300.621 4,365.976 4,568.729 4 Germany 4,031.149 4,120.242 4,337.385 5 India 3,468.566 3,820.573 4,170.220 6 UK 3,198.470 3,479.468 3,757.403 7 France 2,778.090 2,806.690 2,932.363 8 Canada 2,200.352 2,326.620 2,420.683 9 Russia 2,133.092 2,136.222 2,146.696 10 Brazil 1,894.708 2,059.443 2,200.916 11 Iran 1,973.738 2,044.152 2,135.731 12 Italy 1,996.934 1,991.008 2,059.410 13 South Korea 1,734.207 1,792.467 1,879.043 14 Australia 1,724.787 1,787.948 1,837.686 15 Mexico 1,424.533 1,476.407 1,527.077 16 Spain 1,389.927 1,421.012 1,508.902 17 Indonesia 1,289.429 1,388.683 1,506.988 18 Netherlands 990.583 1,019.762 1,076.955 19 Saudi Arabia 1,010.588 996.390 1,016.690 20 Turkey 853.487 941.551 1,037.858 (Source "populationu GDP List Updated Jan 2023 IMF gdp data in Oct 2022") How Money Supply Is Measured: M0: Referred to as the monetary base, M0 includes all the money in circulation, including money banks hold in reserve. According to the Federal Reserve, there was about $2.3 trillion in circulation as of January 2023. M1: It includes all the M0 money supply, adding the money held in travelers’ checks, demand deposits, other types of checkable deposits and negotiable orders of withdrawal. As of January 2023, the seasonally adjusted stock of M1 totaled $19.64 trillion. M2: It includes all of the currency from the M1 money supply, and expands to include mutual funds, smaller time deposits, money market securities and other types of time deposits. M2 currencies are usually less liquid than M1, meaning you can’t convert M2 money into cash as easily. The total stock of M2 was $21.27 trillion in January. M3: It includes all the elements of M2, plus institutional money market funds and large time deposits. As compared to M1 and M2, M3 assets have the lowest liquidity. The Fed no longer calculates M3. How Much Money Is in the World? The total amount of money in the world can be measured and expressed in many different ways, so it’s difficult to give a specific answer. If you’re curious about the total value of notes and coins in circulation, the Bank for International Settlements estimated it to be 8,275,000,000,000, or $8.28 trillion U.S. dollars, across 20 major countries plus the euro area in 2021, its most recent estimate. Of course, there are nearly 200 countries in the world, so this is just a rough estimate of the most narrowly defined — and perhaps easiest to quantify — category of money. The global M1 supply, which includes all the money in circulation plus travelers checks and demand deposits like checking and savings accounts, was $48.9 trillion as of Nov. 28, 2022, according to Visual Capitalist. That publication estimated the total value of the M2 supply to be $82.6 trillion. Money is also present in the form of investments and derivatives. The total market capitalization of just the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq is over 48,000,000,000,000 USD as of December 2022, according to Statista. The sum of Market Capitalization of Shanghai Stock Exchange and Market Capitalization of Shenzhen Stock Exchange accounted for 12,360,284,655,000 USD in March 2023. The total market cap of cryptocurrency, as reported by CoinMarketCap, adds another $1.16 trillion to that figure. (Source "gobankingrates, By Scott Jeffries March 16, 2023")Editors' picksby Options360Updated 77107
Central Bank Liquidity vs US MarketsThis chart presents central bank liquidity (credit: @DylanLeClair_ on Twitter for the calculation). It demonstrates a consistent pattern: when global liquidity decreases, the US markets also decline. The chart highlights the notable trend of the Relative Strength Index (RSI), particularly as the US markets attempt to push higher. This information provides insight for investors and analysts, enabling them to gauge market movements and understand the influence of global liquidity changes on the US markets. AMEX:SPY SP:SPX TVC:RUT TVC:DJI NASDAQ:NDX by EquityEye8
us house price indexInteresting Unknown Fact: US house price index (priced in #gold) peaked in 2001. Peak house price (in real terms) was over 20 years ago...Shortby Badcharts6
purchasing powerUS purchasing power MOMENTUM has carved out a MASSIVE TOP and is breaking down. TAKE-OFF platforms for #gold #silver and #crudeoil are found in these areas. 1920-1940 top in momentum 1957-1968 top in momentum 1997-2022 MASSIVE top in momentumShortby Badcharts4
How Safe Is Your Job?Everyone is wondering when the FED is going to cut rates. My answer: Q1 24' the rate environment should see a major shift Increasing waves of layoffs are most likely on the way. The question employees should be asking is: How safe is my job?by Heartbeat_Trading9
Nikkei 225 continues to outperform other Indices Nikkei 225 continues to outperform other Indices JP225 has been trending up since the third week of March. Economic news from both the US and Japan are the contributing factors to the bullish trend. In the short term, a breach of 30,000 seems likely. There are strong first-quarter earnings, coupled with the dovish Bank of Japan. Elsewhere in China, the numbers are rather disappointing for Industrial Production and Retail Sales. In the US, the current hot topics are the debt crisis, the hawkish Fed, and concerns about the safety of the deposits. Nikkei 225 index has been outperforming other indices. Geopolitics and encouraging fundamentals from Japan are making this asset a lucrative one. However, one needs to exercise caution when trading JP225, as it is considered one of the most volatile indices, said Abrar Bhatti, an analyst at Exness. On the daily charts, the technical resistance area of 30,000 is yet to be broken. If it does happen, the next resistance area will be the 30,300, followed by a high made on 21st September 2021. Moreover, the index is currently trading well above 20 days Moving average, making it lucrative for trend traders. On the contrary, bears will try to push the index down to the 29,300 area. The price of 28,500 will serve as an ultimate support area. by Exness_Official111
Wages/House PricesThe United States has seen a 63% decrease in wages vs property prices over the last 23 years.by barnabygraham4
Jobs market doesn't lie This is Job openings minus continuing jobless claims. It makes the trends clear as day. There's another crash coming this year. There are only 1.7M job seekers and 10.8M open jobs. They will not get filled. They will close and the market will crash. Shortby Nicklaus68Updated 3314
Nikkei225 all time chartThe Japanese stock market topped in 1989 and was in a bear market until 2009 from when we have seen a rally. Could the rally be about to end? One way of drawing it as shown here is a down trend channel using the two major lows of the bear market as point to connect. There is divergence on the RSI.by MrAndroid112
Initial claims and fed fund rate cutIt has begun. We can't be too far now from the PIVOT (Fed Fund Rate CUT). Now watch crude oil and the precious metals. They have been pricing in a lot of this ahead of time. Lets see how much more needs pricing in. #gold #silver #crudeoil #copper #platinum #uraniumLongby Badcharts112
US Defense Expenditures versus Interest PaymentsUS Defense Expenditures versus Interest Payments. The true story. US Dollar purchasing power (dxy/ppiaco) tracks this relationship. Both 7 year rate of change continuing to break down.Shortby Badcharts113
global net liquidityFED+BOJ+BOE+ECB+PBOC-TGA-RRP this is Global Net liquidity of Major World Central Banks.by Bryan_by_you6
USD Liquidity vs S&P vs BTCThis cart shows how USD liquidity leads assets such as Bitcoin and stock market. by ErenCaner1
🟨 RECESSION? - TIGHTER CREDIT CONDITIONSFED CHAIRMAN POWELL'S STATEMENT 🎙️ Chairman Powell remains flexible regarding future rate hikes, emphasizing that decisions will be taken on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Notably, the removal of the word "anticipates" indicates a decrease in urgency for additional rate increases. Furthermore, the absence of the phrase "sufficiently restrictive" suggests that current policy has reached the desired level. LENDING AND CREDIT CONDITIONS 💳 The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring lending and credit conditions as tighter credit may replace some of the rate hikes that could have been necessary. The current approach can be described as a "hope and pray" policy, where the Fed relies on falling inflation and tighter credit conditions to achieve a sufficiently restrictive stance, while hoping no other issues arise. POTENTIAL RECESSION ON THE HORIZON? 📉 Tighter credit conditions might lead to a recession. However, it is essential to determine how much of this possibility has already been factored into the market.Shortby TintinTrading3
nfciusing nfci as a trend indicator. A declining nfci is for the uptrend, while an ascending nfci is for the downtrend.by hppeng112
AUUR-AUINTR HEADING FOR CONVERGANCE?The Interest rates are inversely correlated to unemployment rates in Australia. The last time they intersected was 2008 GFC, and they appear to be headed the same way, with unemployment forecast for 4.8% in Q12024. - Takeaways When interest rates are up unemployment is down and vice versa Last time they had a major divergence/convergence was a global economic event (GFC, COVID) Any thoughts let me know in comments?by x0tarv3
Macro conditions don't foretell a market crash soonSome points here looking back to 2001. (2020 was an irregular event): 1. Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) has to start rising before SPX (yellow) drops. Currently UNRATE is declining. 2. The Unemployment Rate (UNRATE green) seems to follow the Unemployed Persons Rate (USUP dark blue). USUP just fell so presumably we can expect UNRATE to fall too this month. 3. Continuing Jobless Claims (USCJC red) and Initial Jobless Claims (USIJC light blue) just fell slightly. 4. There are still more job openings than people to fill them (JTSJOL Non-Farm Job Openings minus USCJC US Continuing Jobless Claims) And just announced today, Non-Farm Payrolls exceeded expectations. Conclusion is that macro conditions don't foretell a market crash in the immediate future. Of course that's provided we don't see another slew of bank failures, and that Congress can agree a new debt limit.by lavoriamo1
Will the Fed target of be enough?well se if they keep raising rates but it seems like they are open to slowing down. well see how it plys out.by largepetrol2
ISM SqueezeTechnical analysis of the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Institute for Supply Managementby benblackdiamond1
USINTR Golden Reversal Level.the detail is shown in the above Idea. I made this Idea based on Candlestick Analysis and Harmonic pattern. usIntr Bearish Bat Pattern Will Start at 5.94 % and probably UsIntr Will Fall ( FED Decision). by SEYED98114
US job openings (inverted) against unemployment US job openings (inverted) against unemployment. US job openings (inverted) against unemployment.by ofb-111