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Economy

MARKET CORRECTION TIMING APPEARS IMMINENTThe chart provides a compelling historical perspective of major S&P 500 corrections and their relationship with Federal Reserve interest rate cycles. It highlights three significant market downturns (the shaded areas in red): the Dot-com Bubble (-49%, March 2000 - October 2002), the Global Financial Crisis (-57%, October 2007 - March 2009), and the COVID-19 Crash (-34%, February 2020 - March 2020). A notable pattern emerges when examining the relationship between these market corrections and interest rate peaks - market downturns often follow periods where interest rates have reached their cyclical highs. The blue line (in the chart below) representing the Effective Federal Funds Rate shows clear peaks before each of these major market corrections, suggesting a historical correlation between rate cycle tops and subsequent market pullbacks. Given that current Federal Reserve rates appear to have peaked around 5.5% and started to decline, historical precedent suggests we could be approaching a correction phase in the relatively near term. The chart's pattern indicates that once rates stabilize at their peak, as they have recently, the window for a potential market correction typically opens within a matter of months. However, while this pattern is interesting from a historical perspective, it's important to note that past patterns don't guarantee future market behaviour, and many other factors contribute to market corrections beyond just interest rate cycles. In my opinion we may be just missing a catalyst? Was this week DeepSeek correction the start of it? Only time will tell. Keep nimble! Keep cautious! 
FRED:DFFShort
by RichmondHillCM
US FEDERAL WORKERS and COMING DECLINEThe chart Posted is that of Government worker Has PEAKED ! As you can see under Elliot Wave We have reached the point That Governments thru out the United States has FIVE LEGS up ! and to which the jobs created over the last fours has been where most jobs have been. It is my view that this has come to an end ! and that we are going to see a true sea change . Timing is for a decline to start NOW !This should also slow down the rate of Debt and inflationary forces ! . I stand by my work and the data the US Unemployment levels have bottomed and a upturn that started last year will see it increase to a level in the mid 5 to 5.5 % .and that the recession started last year mid summer early spring . If cycles based on the data we should see the peak in unemployment in Oct 2026 and the low in the Liquidity cycle and recession low . Best of trades WAVETIMER
FRED:USGOVT
by wavetimer
Money supply is increasing again. Back to QE?You can see that the balance sheet (total assets) of the ECB is at the bottom of a channel. Just like that of the FED (see my previous post). Given the current financial and economic situation in the EU, I expect a switch from QT to QE within a few months. If I look at the money supply of the EU, the previous ‘ATH’ (September 202) has already been broken. For the US, this is now very close. In other words, if the market crashes now, that will certainly be a reason to increase the money supply further and to switch from QT to QE. Interesting times. I foresee a repeat of the period 1995-2000! This means that the final phase of the bull market has yet to begin.
ECONOMICS:EUCBBSLong
by Krijgsman
Are we entering QE? I find it hard to imagine that the Balance Sheet of the FED ('total assets') fits into some kind of channel or TA, but I have to be honest that I do see some patterns here. Total Assets is in a channel that has been going on for years, the end of which seems to be in sight. This means that the transformation from QT to QE is slowly taking place (this could take months). In addition, it seems that the RSI is also 'oversold' and seems to be making its way to go up. Of course, QT can continue, but I do expect QE to take place somewhere in Q2 or Q3 2025... This is not a tradable asset, so of course you should take this with a grain of salt!
FRED:WALCL
by Krijgsman
$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 3.6% (December/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in a year (6.4% vs 4.8% in November), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.7% vs 9.9%) and gas cost (5.6% vs 3.5%) increased at the fastest rate in four months with the absence of energy subsidies since May. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.9%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.6%), transport (1.1% vs 0.9%), furniture and household utensils (3.0% vs 3.7%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.6%), recreation (4.0% vs 4.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-2.1% vs -3.0%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3.0%, up from 2.7% in November and matching consensus. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.6%, the highest figure in 14 months.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
US DEBT Outpacing Private Credit 2 to 1Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few while socializing those liabilities onto the backs of the many. The many will not realize this is happening until it is too late. The few will sell their bonds, take their money, and move it overseas, collapsing the currency's value, and leaving the many to pay for the debt with taxation, austerity and inflation. (even hyperinflation) The more Gov borrows to deficit spends the more it has to deficit the closer we get to the point of no return. That's what this chart is showing you. The direction we are heading.
FRED:TOTBKCRLong
by RealMacro
Need to Show You Something...... every time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates the indexes have taken a fall ...in video I show every BOJ rate hike since the early 2000's along with indexes at the durations ... there are three spots: ... 2000-2001 ... 2006-2010 ... 2024-Present ... BOJ recently upped their interest rate from 0.25 to 0.50 Lets see what happens this year. Also remember that bonds have recently entered a 20-30 year cycle. Certain industries will thrive here.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by NebulousMercuria
Business sentiment turning up which is usually bullish Since the 70's, a significant improvement in the US business sentiment, as measured by the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, usually translated in a higher S&P500 in the following months and year. The only exception being 2021 when the pandemic put a halt to the rise in the stock market (but did recovered quickly). I used a cross of the 12-month rate of change above 6%. The most recent datas is showing the best improvement in business sentiment since the early 80's. This bodes well for a continuation of the bull market in the coming months.
ECONOMICS:USBOILong
by waverity
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
CPI forecastThe CPI represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. User fees (such as water and sewer service) and sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer are also included. Income taxes and investment items (like stocks, bonds, and life insurance) are not included. Prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The stochastic indicator is pointing to an increase in inflation over the next few months. However, that doesn't necessarily predict an immediate increase in inflation this month.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by Options360