To people (Realtors) Is there a home price correction?My case in point is this chart -- that there will be a much bigger home price correction this time around.
I do not want to even try and explain this chart.
Economy
U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations ComparisonThe U.S. Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectation Comparison in the image attached shows the difference of the past 3 presidential administrations. I'm not trying to make this a political issue, but merely just looking at a comparison of what the masses of people have expected the future inflation rates to be in the past in order to have an idea of what to expect in the future.
When looking at this comparison, it shows the difference between economic policies (different administrations) and their effects on inflation expectations. Granted, with some policy implementations having a lag effect, there is likely some overlap between administrations and their effect on the inflation expectations. The dashed orange lines show the limits of the majority of data points that fall within those dashed lines. Anything that plots outside the dashed orange lines are outliers / not normal (for the last 30+ years).
COVID obviously had an outsized impact on inflation expectations since the U.S. government printed massive amounts of new money (Quantitative Easing (QE) by the Federal Reserve) to offset the closing of the economy / lockdowns due to COVID. That is marked on the chart to show approximately when that would have started. Thankfully, when COVID hit, we were at historically the lowest inflation expectations in U.S. history (as far back as the data goes on this chart).
With our current administration trying to cut costs of the federal government and trying to increase external sources of tax revenue to offset decreases to internal tax revenue sources, I suspect that will decrease the federal spending (net effect). A large portion of our inflation in the U.S. economy comes from government spending and printing of new money (QE). Granted the Federal Reserve has been in a Quantitative Tightening (QT) mode lately to help cool recent elevated inflation. However, I bet the Fed will be going to a net zero (not QT or QE) stance soon before they begin QE again in the future.
This will, hopefully in the short term, help inflation expectations come down, but tariffs will pressure inflation to increase if tariffs aren't offset enough by the administration lowering the taxes on U.S. citizens and businesses to have a net zero effect (which is possible). If the Federal Reserve starts QE sooner than later (highly unlikely unless our economy goes into a recession), then that will certainly put a lot of pressure on inflation to go up. This is a mistake the Fed has done before in the past back in the 1970's / 1980's until past Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised rates to the highest they've ever been to break the insane inflation rates back then. Time will tell if history rhymes again or not. I certainly hope inflation is tamed and not allowed to go crazy again. Please feel free to leave a comment / your thoughts below. I welcome all feedback on anywhere my analysis may have been wrong. Good luck trading / investing out there.
M2 Peaking as Reverse Repo Drains to ZeroThe reverse repo balance at the Fed represents trapped liquidity. When this balance comes down it means liquidity is released into the economy and markets. The M2 level lags the change in reverse repo by about 300 days. Because reverse repo changes have been steady for some time, it is possible to draw a trajectory for reverse repo going to zero, and then M2 peaking out. This would coincide with a potential topping process for SPX as shown in the lower pane of the chart.
My CPI/ Inflation PredictionECONOMICS:USCIR NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY AMEX:IWM
We are just 15 minutes away from some very important inflation data coming out.
Here is my prediction: 3.1 YoY CPI or Lower
- Double top to drop continues
- Had a small lower high form and deflect off the 9ema
- Curling over and pointed down again
- Bearish WCB is still thriving
- The trend is your friend and the trend says we are going to continue to fall lower
Not financial advice
All Employees to Population Flashing CAUTION!As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how much output an economy can generate. Reciprocating tariffs certainly won't help exporters grow profit or create jobs.
Caution is in order!
$USIRYY -U.S CPI (January/2025)ECONOMICS:USIRYY 2.9%
(January/2025)
source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
- The annual inflation rate in the US likely held steady at 2.9% in January 2025, matching December’s figure, which was the highest since July.
On a monthly basis, the CPI is expected to have risen by 0.3%, slowing from 0.4% in December, with food and energy prices continuing to increase, particularly natural gas.
Meanwhile, annual core inflation, which excludes volatile components such as food and energy, is anticipated to decline for a second consecutive month to 3.1%, marking the lowest level since April 2021.
In contrast, monthly core inflation is projected to edge up to 0.3% from 0.2% in December, driven primarily by an increase in new and used car prices.
Fed Net liquidityFed Bal Sheet - RRP - TGA. This indicator tracks Fed Net liquidity which should be a good proxy for where markets are going
US Debt and US Money SupplyThis chart shows the exponential increase in US Debt and US Money supply over the past few decades.
The Federal Deficit/SurplusThis chart shows the yearly US Federal Government deficit over the past few decades.
$CNIRYY -China Inflation Rate Hits 5-Month PeakECONOMICS:CNIRYY 0.5%
(January/2025)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
- China’s annual inflation rate surged to 0.5% in January 2025 from 0.1% in the prior month, above consensus of 0.4%.
This was the highest figure since August 2024, driven by seasonal effects from the Lunar New Year.
Meantime, producer prices fell by 2.3% yoy, keeping the same pace as in December while declining for the 28th month.
Domestic fiat USD has now arrived at its Project Weimar momentUS stocks pumped to $270 trillion today from $20 trillion in 2008 on hyper US trade deficits and government deficits. You can see where this hyper liquidity came from and in Bitcoins case drove a 15 year liquidity driven rally. Also in I California real estate has pumped to $909k avg price with national average price at $427k. The fiat is also now in an interest expense driven death spiral. USA is about to enter a time like no other these type of national bankruptcy and fiat implosion financial events write history books for the ages.
Core PCEThis chart shows the history of the Core PCE and highlights the FED's 2% target as well as the 3% level where the market likely starts to care about inflation being too high again.
The Unemployment RateThis chart allows us to see the history of the US Unemployment Rate and when recessions have been triggered in the past.
what if?QE is a must for altcoins. the last FED QT cycle ended at .618. if that happens again with the same rate of QT, FED pivot should be in Q3 2025 and last time it took a quarter for altcoins to move. therefore, alts may move in Q4 2025 which kinda means bull run will extend well into 2026.
Nonfarm payrolls (jobs created)We are inching closer to a recession and economic turmoil.
Stock markets ALWAYS drop when this happens.
Deposits All Commercial Banks & US DebtWhen a politician and their buddy start spouting nonsense about the US debt spiraling out of control, but then insist that tax cuts are great because they’ll create jobs, and all that money will somehow trickle down to the rest of us, magically boosting tax revenue to "make up" for the lost funds.
Especially when that same politician was re-elected bc inflation & the economy were just so horrible, promising he would come in and save the day bringing prices down again with more tax cuts because they worked so great the first time around.
That's the extreme right. What about the extreme left #MMT?
#MMT is just as bad as MAGAs! They will tell you deficits are great! Deficits add to our savings! Deficits make us all richer! It's accounting, they say! it has to be that way! Except for the little fact that it's not based on empirical evidence.
So the next time some B.S. Artist tells you their little version of a fictional money story, you will know what reality is since 2018. You will have seen this chart with your own eyes and cannot unsee it! No matter what you do, no matter what side you lean politically, it's irrelevant.
Public debt since the tax cuts have grown exponentially, while the private sector deposits have lagged to the point they have stagnated completely since 2021. Barely rising 6%.
Defunding CIA, FBI, USAID, Dept of Education etc.. will do absolutely nothing to make up for all the lost tax revenue since 2018 and the next tax cuts to follow. In fact, when we enter a recession, the deficits will explode even higher as tax revenues collapse and social and economic stabilizers (if there are any left) kick in. Then what?
Don't shoot the messenger!
Unemployment - In big pictureThe history of periods when unemployment was rising and key indicators illustrating economic stimulation through interest rate cuts.
For comparison, the impact on BTC and altcoins. Interestingly, throughout Bitcoin's entire history, the best periods have been when unemployment was declining. The only exception was during the COVID era, when the largest amount of money in history was printed, inflating the markets.
Currently, we are facing rising unemployment, unregulated inflation, escalating global conflicts, and a trade tariff war.
How will the stock market and the crypto market react?
The history of periods when unemployment was rising For comparison, the impact on BTC and altcoins. Interestingly, throughout Bitcoin's entire history, the best periods have been when unemployment was declining. The only exception was during the COVID era, when the largest amount of money in history was printed, inflating the markets.
Currently, we are facing rising unemployment, unregulated inflation, escalating global conflicts, and a trade tariff war.
How will the stock market and the crypto market react?
ISM INDEX Measured against Altcoin Marketcap + ETH Marketcap
So the ISM Index measures business activity in the US. When it's above 50 it suggests expanding economy.
No one is really talking about this but I heard max shillboi Raoul Pal mention it.
Could be a useful early signal for when it goes above 50. Seems to line up well with Altcoin boomboom.
Blue Line = ETH MC
Black Line = Altcoin MC
Dotted line = ISM Index
CNM2 Projected With Last Year Movement3 circle this year is like we are in same rythm with last year
Many bad news in China is like worrying but why M2 in China still increase
I dont know but its like something to add in your watchlist rather than USM2
Inflation vs gold correlation 60's to 80's Pattern.Gold seems to like inflation. Or, is inflation food for gold? These are chars that no one is showing you.
According to this chart, Gold has a seven year bull run ahead of it that should top at some point in 2032.
This a chart of the US Inflation rate on the 2 month (Blue line) right from the horses mouth, Bureau of labour statistics. On the top in gold or yellow is the gold chart. As you can clearly see, in the seventies gold was very heavily correlated with inflation. This is not my opinion this is a fact, and it will be again.
THIS IS A 2 FOR ONE GUYS. INFLATION AND GOLD FORCAST ALL IN ONE!!
Let me know what you think down below.
Kind regards,
WeAreSat0shi
FED REPO Index at same levels as 1998 and 2007: WARNINGDear viewers, traders and investors,
Something very important could happens in the coming months, which may impact all financial markets: as you can see from the chart the REPO Index is at a very level, and this is not a good sign.
Currently we are slightly between 1998's and 2007's levels which, by records, have been very bad years for global finance.
What REPO is?
Repo rate refers to the annualized interest cost when borrowing money using securities as collateral. Essentially, in a repurchase agreement (repo), you sell securities to a lender with an agreement to repurchase them at a later date at a slightly higher price. This price difference reflects the interest cost of the loan.
Understanding repo rates is paramount for several reasons. First, they directly influence the cost of short-term funding in the financial markets, which can affect borrowing costs if you engage in repo transactions.
Secondly, repo rates play a critical role in maintaining market liquidity. Disruptions in the repo market can lead to liquidity shortages and increased volatility, potentially impacting the value of your fixed-income holdings.
What can influence REPO rates?
Several key components influence the repo rate. Firstly, the quality of the collateral significantly impacts the rate. Higher-quality securities like government bonds typically command lower repo rates due to their lower credit risk. Conversely, lower-quality securities may require you to pay higher repo rates to compensate lenders for the increased risk.
Secondly, the duration of the repurchase agreement affects the repo rate. Longer-term repos generally involve higher rates to compensate lenders for the increased interest rate risk associated with longer loan periods.
Lastly, the delivery requirements for the collateral can influence repo rates. If you need to deliver the securities to the lender physically, it may result in higher transaction costs and potentially higher repo rates.
Factors influencing repo rates
Several factors significantly influence the repo rate you’ll encounter:
Credit risk. The credit risk associated with the collateral directly impacts the repo rate. If the collateral is considered risky (e.g., lower-rated corporate bonds), lenders will demand a higher repo rate to compensate for the increased risk of default.
You’ll often hear about “general collateral” and “on special” collateral. General collateral typically consists of high-quality securities with low credit risk, such as Treasury securities. “On special” collateral refers to high-demand securities, often due to short-selling activity or specific market conditions. Repo rates on “on special” collateral can be significantly lower than those on general collateral.
Term. The term of the repo agreement plays a crucial role. Longer-term repos generally involve higher rates to compensate lenders for the increased interest rate risk associated with longer loan periods.
Collateral delivery. The delivery requirements for the collateral can influence repo rates. Suppose you need to physically deliver the securities to the lender (on-site delivery). In that case, it may result in lower transaction costs and potentially lower repo rates compared to situations where tri-party repo agents are involved.
Supply and demand. The supply and demand dynamics of the collateral significantly impact repo rates. When a particular security is in high demand (e.g., due to short-selling activity or regulatory requirements), its repo rate can decline significantly. This is because the borrower has an asset that lenders of cash may specifically want.
Money market rates. Prevailing interest rates in the money market, such as the federal funds rate, strongly influence repo rates. If the cost of borrowing funds from other sources (like the federal funds market) increases, repo rates will generally follow suit to maintain competitiveness.
Thank you very much for taking time to read my post, hope you may find it interesting!
TARIFFS Will Lead To Inflation!? NOPE!So many talking heads crying TARIFFS will be inflationary,
but it’s mostly uneducated fear-mongering.
Let’s look at the cold, hard USIRYY and CPI data to figure out the truth behind this.
From March 2018 through September 2019, President Trump had eight waves of tariff announcements on C-H-I-N-A, plus some steel and aluminum ones on Mexico and Canada.
In order to combat these inflation worries, Trump did what he said he was going to do…
DRILL BABY DRILL.
For the first time since 1949, the US would be a net exporter of oil.
We can see there was a quick spike in inflation from stockpiling imports before tariffs were fully implemented, but inflation quickly plummeted nearly in half as the US became a net exporter.
Fast-forward to today, and coincidentally inflation is at 2.9% which is right around where it was when Trump imposed the tariffs during his last presidency. Funny how that works out, eh ;)
Trump has declared the US will DRILL BABY DRILL bigger than ever, which should lead us to believe that this time is NOT different and inflation will go down again.
