WILL THE MONEY SUPPLY REALLY COME DOWN? Yes, it is possible that the total money supply will decrease.
= The total money supply in an economy is affected by various factors such as monetary policy, banking system dynamics, and economic conditions.
Here are some scenarios in which the total money supply may decrease:
CONTRACTIONIST MONETARY POLICY
Central banks have the ability to control the money supply through their monetary policies. When they pursue contractionary monetary policy, they take steps to reduce the money supply in order to control inflation. This can include selling government securities, increasing reserve requirements for banks, or raising interest rates, which can lead to a decrease in the money supply.
BANK CRASHES OR BANK RUNS
When multiple banks fail or experience a bank run, it can lead to a decrease in the money supply. When banks fail, the money that customers have deposited in those banks may be lost, resulting in a decrease in the overall money supply.
ECONOMIC DOWNTURN
During economic downturns, such as recessions or depressions, businesses and individuals may reduce their borrowing and spending, leading to a decline in the demand for credit and money. As a result, the supply of money may shrink.
CONTRACTION OF CASH OR DEMONETIZATION
Governments may withdraw certain denominations of cash from circulation or demonetize them altogether. This can be done for a variety of reasons, including combating counterfeiting, promoting digital payments, or curbing black market activity. In such cases, the total money supply would decrease as the currency withdrawn from circulation became invalid.
DEVALUATION OR DEFLATION
When there is a significant decline in the value of a country's currency (devaluation) or a sustained decline in the general level of prices for goods and services (deflation), the total money supply can effectively decline in terms of its purchasing power.
While these scenarios can lead to a decline in the total money supply, it is important to note that in modern economies, the money supply is generally controlled by central banks, which strive to maintain stable and predictable monetary conditions to promote economic growth and stability.
A significant and prolonged contraction in the money supply can have a detrimental effect on economic activity, so central banks generally seek to avoid abrupt contractions in the money supply.
If this idea and explanation have added value to you, I would appreciate a COMMENT or BOOST very much.
Thank you, and happy trading!
Economy
NASDAQ 100’s special rebalance On 24 July, the NASDAQ 100 Index conducted a special rebalance to reduce the concentration of the so-called ‘magnificent seven’ in the index. The seven stocks whose strong performance this year has driven the index are Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet, Tesla, Nvidia, and Meta.
The index is typically reconstituted annually in December, with additional rebalancing opportunities each quarter. A special rebalance outside the usual schedule is only happening for the third time in the index’s history, with the first two having been in December 1998 and May 2011. According to NASDAQ, a special rebalance may be triggered if the aggregate weight of companies individually accounting for more than 4.5% of the index tops 48%. Based on this, NASDAQ announced its plan to rebalance the index on 7 July. The new weights were applied before the start of trading on 24 July.
What happened in the past?
Strong rallies in tech stocks were behind the special rebalances both in May 2011 and December 1998. In 2011, Apple was among the stocks that saw its weight being reduced notably following a period of strong performance. And in 1998, it was Microsoft1. Performance of the index following the two rebalances does not give much to go by. Following the rebalance in December 1998, the NASDAQ 100 continued on its upward trend while the index was weighed down following the rebalance in May 2011.
What it means for investors
For investors looking to position themselves tactically to benefit from this development, arguments can be made to support both bullish and bearish cases. Passive money tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index will be forced to sell the biggest names on Wall Street which have made a significant contribution to the index’s performance this year. This could create some volatility in the short-term especially given the special rebalance has happened in the middle of the earnings season and market sensitivity to announcements may be heightened. Already in the week of 17 July, when Tesla and Netflix announced their earnings, markets reacted adversely to their cautious outlook for the third quarter. This also means that it would be hard to completely isolate the impact of the rebalance on stock prices. A dip in prices may, however, may be seen by some investors as an entry point.
But while the move from NASDAQ is aimed at reducing the concentration of the biggest tech names in the index, the special rebalance does not mean that the NASDAQ 100’s risk profile has changed materially. The index follows a modified market capitalisation methodology which means that, subject to some limits of influence, the biggest companies will still occupy the largest weight. The index, therefore, continues to give investors a way to capture the sentiment in growth stocks, bullish or bearish.
In some of our recent blogs, we have also emphasised how the NASDAQ 100 is not a way to capture specific tech megatrends such as artificial intelligence (AI), despite investor sentiment towards AI driving the fortunes of some of the top names in the index. Dedicated AI strategies, such as the NASDAQ CTA Artificial Intelligence Index, tend to have relatively low overlap with the NASDAQ 100. Again, the rebalance does not fundamentally change this.
Closing word
The NASDAQ 100 Index was launched in 1985. This is only its third special rebalance in almost four decades. For an index which is focused on growth stocks, it signifies how contributors to performance have been concentrated right at the top this year. For tactical investors, there may be opportunities in the short-term resulting from this. For others, it may be a reminder of the need for diversification.
Sources
1 Source: CNBC report from 05 April 2011
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Bank of Japan sitting on the fence on easy policy exitCentral banks packed quite a punch last week. Unlike the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank that raised policy rates by 25Bps, as was widely anticipated, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) on July 28 unexpectedly decided to tweak the Yield Curve Control (YCC) band.
The BOJ begins its withdrawal from YCC
It will now allow some deviation above the long-term rate cap of 0.5% and has raised the rate for its 10yr Japanese Government Bond (JGB) fixed-rate purchase operations to 1%. They are effectively doubling their YCC band as it has outlived its purpose over the last seven years. This is despite Governor Kazuo Ueda stressing the BOJs patience a week prior to the meeting leading to 82% of the economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting no change. There is a strong likelihood the decision was made because the market was least expecting it, similar to the last YCC policy tweak made in December 2022. As it helps avoid the inevitable speculation about the impact of the change on the JGB curve thereby forcing the BOJ to step up its interventions.
It’s hard to determine whether the new YCC with greater flexibility and nimble responses in its purchase schedule will achieve the BOJs goal of sustainable and stable achievement of the 2% inflation target. Longer dated JGB yields are likely to stay under upward pressure until clearer signs emerge that Japanese inflation and wage pressure are easing again.
Core inflation at highest level since 1982
The deflationary headwinds confronting Japan have been around for decades. Signs of change have been seen in firms’ wage- and price-setting behaviour, and inflation expectations have shown some upward movements again (as seen in the chart above).
Spring in Japan is the season for shunto, the annual wage negotiations between company management and unions. This year some firms have already announced significant wage hikes in response to a tightening labour market and rising inflation. May wages rose by 2.9%1. However, a large part of the increase was tied to bonuses. Real wages fell by less but continued to decline by 0.9%2. Japanese headline inflation stayed at 3.2% year on year in July for three consecutive months3. However, core inflation excluding fresh food and energy, reaccelerated to 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 1982.
Looking ahead, headline inflation will likely slow owing to falling global commodity prices and base effects but core inflation will likely remain higher owing to structural change in the labour market.
BOJ struck a dovish tone with below target inflation forecasts
The BOJ’s inflation forecasts for the fiscal years ahead are expected to slow further. The BoJ lowered its (median) forecast for FY2024 to +1.9%4 and left its FY2025 projection unchanged at +1.6%3, in effect justifying ongoing easing from the Bank of Japan. BoJ Governor Ueda mentioned at the press conference that there is still some distance to foresee 2% price stability target in a stable and sustainable manner given our inflation outlook for FY2024 and FY2025. This echoes a dovish narrative on the new YCC regime and a continued communication that the BOJ intends to in effect ease policy by still increasing the monetary base via fixed operations.
More volatility beckons for risk assets
The initial response to the BOJs surprise decision was a sharp rise in Japanese bond yields. Japan’s benchmark bond yields surged, extending gains above the central bank’s previous 0.5% cap. The yen whipsawed, falling more than 1% before reversing course and rallying to trade about the same amount higher.
On Monday 31st July, the BOJ sprung another surprise announcement (2 days post the BOJ meeting) of an unscheduled bond-purchase operation to stem the rise in yields5. The BOJ intends to purchase ¥300Bn of five-to-10-year notes at market yields. This serves as an important reminder that the flexibility is intertwined with opaqueness, as the BOJ can intervene at any time (between 0.5% to 1%) which will continue to stoke volatility across risk assets. The BOJ has positioned the YCC as enhancing sustainability of its current accommodative policy. With Japan’s monetary environment likely to be kept relatively loose, the yen is likely to trade in a volatile range for the remainder of 2023.
Sources
1 Bloomberg as of 31 May 2023
2 Bloomberg 31 May 2023
3 Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communication as of 20 July 2023
4 Bank of Japan as of 28 July 2023
5 Bloomberg as of 31 July 2023
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
$USIRYY -CPI# *M printToday is the Consumer Price Index numbers release.
Consensus sits at 8% Inflation rate, while the previous month's number was at 8.2%.
Many are forecasting for a 8.1% CPI number coming out.
Feds have been expecting to bring inflation down via their instrument of interest rates by raising them at 4%, however, thus far, no success was found there for Feds in terms of bringing down inflation, let alone their 2% inflation target that for now, seems far-fetched target.
While in this world of speculation we live in and nothing is for certain, it is best for traders to
wait over CPI's release taking the risk off and trading cautiously .
I would not suggest for any one to trade the news and it's volatility , but if you do so,
please take measures on any occurring scenarios over CPI's number release.
Very important day for everyone who is involved on Financial Markets.
Very important day for Macro-Economics Data and overall Inflation around the World.
What do you think it will happen with 2% Inflation target Feds got in place ?
TRADE SAFE
Note that this is not Financial Advice .
Please do your own research or consult your Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activities based soly
on this idea
The Overnight Reverse Repo Facility Looks to be Bottoming OutMoney that has been parked at the Fed's Reverse Repo Facility due to the attractively high interest rates the Fed has set for money parked there has been on a steady decline since late 2022, and recently, this year we confirmed a breakdown of a Bearish Dragon, which led to a BAMM move down to complete a Harmonic M-shape.
This then represented an influx of liquidity exiting the facility and effectively hitting circulation, which led to that money chasing assets and commodities. This chasing of assets and commdoities effecctively backed the 2023 Stock Market Rally.
The target I had set for this move was down to the 0.886 of a Bullish Bat and now months later we can see that we came very close to it, but it would seem that rather than getting a full 0.886 retrace we are instead getting a confirmation-styled RSI reaction as price Bounces from the 1.618 Extension, which just so happens to align with an AB=CD formation it's made on the way down.
I see this as an indication that the liquidity will soon stop flowing out from the facility and that liquidity will now begin to flow back to the facility, effectively taking money out of circulation, which would likely result in a decline in asset prices and a decline in the trading of Short Term Debt on the open market, which could then lead to Short Term Yields rising overall along with the US Dollar as institutions once again begin to lock up their dollars in this facility and chase yield rather than assets.
Recently, I have been seeing a lot of weakness in the banking sector. That weakness may act as a catalyst for these institutions to once again park their money with the Fed, just as it did before. As always, my target for an ABCD is back to the Level of C, so we should see this rising back up about 30% before we can start looking for signs of this topping out again.
Durable goods orders indexHi everybody , you see on social media and influencers channels huge exaggeration about us economic data like this and they show all things strong and well but please se otherside of coin with me ,,, you should check that core durable goods orders doesnt change at all related to previous month all increasing on durable goods orders was based on transportation orders and if you eliminate that you get the reality .....i put for you the link to check this out by your own :https://uk.investing.com/economic-calendar/core-durable-goods-orders-59
always go to data deeply with me .
comment your idea below.
stay safe and logical
wages versus purchasing powerWages are naturally built to out perform purchasing power.
Wages go UP... purchasing power goes DOWN.
However, when this relation goes in overdrive, POWERFUL macro tides are changing, which forces investments portfolios to shift and adapt.
#silver #gold #crudeoil #fintwit #spx
Wage acceleration = Purchasing Power Decrease!!! DIFFICULT CONCEPT TO GRASP !!!
🤔The more your wages go UP, the more your purchasing power goes DOWN.
😵Crowd is getting fooled by the fiat currency illusion.
💡Gold and Silver will remove the illusion.
💁♂️Help share and spread mass awareness.
#gold #silver #inflation
US inflation data is at multi year resistance..Us inflation is at multi year resistance.it shows inflation has already peaked. once it will start coming down markets will rally to the upside. Will markets makes new ath sooner or later ? Well who knows?? Ask yourself that question.
Will fed stop rising rates for now?
Very unlikely.
Will fed could consider lowering the basis points ?
Most likely.
Will fed do it in upcoming meeting (23rd sep'22) this month?
Unlikely.
DXY | JPY | CREDIT EVENT | DECRYPTERS Hi People Welcome to Team " DECRYPTERS"
SO we Have 3 Main events this Week Lets Get A DEEP DIVE IN TO THEM
1- FED :- FED RATE HIKES ( PRICED IN ) + PRESS CONFERENCE ( HAWKISH )
AS we predicted Last time what Ever Happen Rate hikes will be increased we still stand by our words . Lets go further Either we are Getting 50 BPS This time or We are Getting 25 BPS next time
WHY Is That So ... ??
The Attached Charts shows the overall level of financial conditions in an economy The conditions are on Same levels When FED was ABOUT to hike Rates Meaning .
Further more —Dot plots , Fed curves ,GSUSCFI Index and Bloom Berg Index & Fall in Credit spread "ALL" Indicating ease in financial system Meaning this Data provide Evidence that FED Can increase More Interest Rates As Credit spread also falling to positive signal for economy
— Rise In commodity Prices Like (RBAB Gasoline) Indicates more higher Prices in Energy sectors.
— Lastly Good inflation trading above 20 years average & CPI Also printing higher on Y/Y Basis.
2- EURO RATE HIKES :-
THIS comes With same Expectations Rate hikes + Hawkish Stance with & Lagarde speech.
Lets Discuss JPY NEWS ON FRIDAY
3- BOJ REPORT :-
A surprise can be Expected From Other Side Like
They can Increase the range of "10 -years JGB" 50 BPS TO 75 /100 BPS
( BOND BUYING BACK PROGRAM) This will Cause bonds Prices to Rise / Yields to Fall &
"JPY TO GET WEAKEN"
—Other yield can React Negatively To IT ( LIKE US -10 YEAR)
Harmonically, US Interest Rates are Headed Toward 35%The US Interest Rate chart has been trading within a Descending Broadening Wedge and has recently broken out of the wedge. The target for a pattern like this is typically back to the inception of the pattern, which in this case would be 20%; but we also have an additional variable here, and that's the Potential Logscale Harmonic Formation we've made here. If we are to treat the action of this chart as we'd treat any other chart, then we'd expect that once B gets broken, we'd get an accelerated move all the way up to the Harmonic Completion of a Bearish Shark, which would land us at the 1.13/1.618 Harmonic Confluence Zone up at around 34-35%
There have been previous instances where Harmonics have had a predictive quality over data like this, such as the accelerated liquidity exit out of the reverse repo facility, the bond yield charts on multiple occasions, and the US Inflation Rate Charts. Which can all be seen in the related ideas tab if you are skeptical of my use of Harmonic Patterns in this context.
Liquidity and $SPYThis measure of Liquidity (blue line) generally tracks AMEX:SPY (orange line). Both were generally declining throughout 2022 and then increasing in 1H 2023. However, in the last month or so there has been a marked divergence, the resolution of which may be an important aspect of equity market direction. One to watch.
Return To BaseA "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy.
Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country.
The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep.
It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible speeds.
Many use the "stochastic" indicator, and rightfully so. The word stochastic may be coming from the Greek word "stochasmos" which means "thought process".
To get a new perspective on these charts we must let nature think for us objectively.
The mind of nature spoke. The miracle of China is fading.
And the same happens when compared to the "treasure" called Taiwan.
Many are willing to fight for it.
For experimentation, let's compare the US with the Eurozone.
For some unknown-to-me reason, GDP has embedded in it the relative strength of currencies between the two countries. Do note that all GDP is measured in USD.
In a sense, relative GDP growth is another way of comparing currency strength.
We have gone from comparing equities, to comparing GDP.
We concluded that comparing GDP is simply comparing purchasing power of two countries.
Currency strength comes from yield rates.
The power is given from those who make and define money. Supply + Yields.
Power = Money Supply * Money Strength
MV = PQ
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. You want to see an Easter Egg?
Consider the following equations:
MV = PQ
Q = GDP
M = M2SL
V = FRED:M2V
P = "price level"
1 / P = "currency strength"
Currency Strength = Q / MV
In the end, it is up to the FED to decide the future.
Economic Depression Ahead?We got some levels never seen in the last 40 years. Usually, the recessions start when the Yield Curve changes direction and comes back to positive territory. This time the numbers are huge and considering the National Debt Level...we could see an Economic Depression. Interest rates reduction within September 2023 and the start of the Recession by July 2023?
My advice to the Federal Reserve: 💥 Don't Fight the Bond Market!!
SPY - NIKKEI225 - We're In The Great Depression + INCOME DATA
Problem with monetary fiscal policy and debasement? your markets start to hyperinflation especially when you try to patch previous bubbles *cough* QT *cough* BTFP *cough*
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 1930 was $4,887.01
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 8.7%
AFTER TAX - $4,788
$4,788 in 1930 is worth $87,476.76 today
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 1933 was $4,218.40
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 24.9%
AFTER TAX - $4,045
$4,045 in 1933 is worth $94,935.84 today
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
The average net yearly income of Americans during 2023 $74,738.
Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) 3.6%
AFTER TAX - $57,237
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
CONCLUSION - The average American is 65.83% poorer than the average American during the great depression. Debasing the currency does not solve poverty and enhances it.
All of this data is from the IRS FRED seems to not provide information prior 1960 now you know why they don't include this on the charts.
Sadly I feel most people don't understand that what is coming is not a "recession" not a "08 RE crash" its going to be a foundational collapse of the entire US debt system / treasuries / stock markets / credit crisis / liquidity crisis.
------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- ------------- -------------
United States Government Debt: % of GDP 2023 = 133%
Japan General Government Gross Debt to GDP 1989 = 65%
Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Q1 2023: 31,458,438 or 31.4 Trillion
I'm personally putting a target for 2026 for the end of the US currency reserve system
The only option here is to either print more 100s of trillions than Weimar Germany
Or force the entire US & Allies onto a new dollar that will combine all G7 currencies.
Hopefully people can understand why there's so much controversial developments on
Russia & BRICS +, this current war is nothing to do with helping another country.
Its because BRICS see's the end of the US system and they are preparing for it.
(sources)
www.irs.gov
www.irs.gov
Tax rates include normal taxes of 1.5 percent on the first $4,000 of taxable income, 3 percent on the next $4,000, and 5 percent on taxable income over $8,000, plus applicable surtaxes. Last law to change rates was the Revenue Act of 1928.