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Economy

Reverse Repo MarketReverse repo market cooling off. Let's see how this affects the Fed's positioning, considering the liquidity implications. Expecting a 6-8 month lead time for the liquidity to make it's way to the market. 1. Banks pulling liquidity to backstop any liquidity crunch 2. Banks expecting the fed to pivot, so they can get better returns lending that money out rather than using it for RR ops. Lock long term high rates, lending money out, now. Guessing this is front-running the fed. Publishing to keep an eye on it. IMO, Fed pivot != bullish. It means they likely overshot their desired outcome. Fed halting to re-analyze would be the best outcome in my eyes.
FRED:RRPONTTLDShort
by cmerged
USA $31.4T Debt: How will this affect BTC and Stocks?❗ WARNING ❗ You're about to read an unpopular opinion... Over the past few days, we've seen bullish price action across nearly all markets. Infact, this is the first time since 2013 that Bitcoin has closed so many green dailies consecutively. This entire market reversal seemed a bit sudden, and many claimed "bull trap". (I'm a believer in the Macro, so when it comes to pure charting without fundamentals, longing was the way to go over the past few days, no argument on this). However, another interesting this happened today - the U.S. government hit its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit TODAY, amid a standoff between the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Joe Biden's Democrats on lifting the ceiling (which could lead to a major economic crisis in a few months). Suddenly, I thought to myself, the entire reversal seems even more suspicious. Now here's my unpopular opinion : What if this is part of an elaborate plan to eliminate some of the debt? The world is dependent on the dollar, if the US financial system is in trouble, so is most of the world. Everything is just too interconnected at this point. Across the giants of investment world, there are rising concerns about unsettling markets and risking a recession. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell predicted that the debt ceiling would be lifted sometime in the first half of 2023 under conditions negotiated by Congress and the White House. According to Reuters, the White House is refusing to negotiate with Republicans on raising the debt ceiling because it believes that the majority of them will eventually back off their demands, as a growing group of investors, business groups and moderate conservatives warn of the dangers of edging towards a default. The high-stakes deadlock is widely expected to last for months, and could come down to the last minute as each side tests the other ahead of June when the U.S. government might be forced to default on paying its debt. A default means being unable to pay. Because U.S. debt is considered the bedrock of the global financial system, due in part to its stability, a default could shake economies across the world. Americans could also face a recession, including higher unemployment, and the stock and bond markets would likely plunge. Today, a government that defaults may be widely excluded from further credit; some of its overseas assets may be seized; and it may face political pressure from its own domestic bondholders to pay back its debt. Today on Twitter, Elon Musk said openly that even if the government taxes every billionaire by 100%, it wouldn't even make a notable dent. According to him, the only way to make a notable dent in this debt is to tax the citizens even more. But what about the markets, the whales, the insider trading between banks, governments and large corporations ?? Trading markets is a multi trillion dollar industry. To make it more practical, the total value of global equity trading alone was 41.8 trillion U.S. dollars in the third quarter of 2021. We know that the Total cryptocurrency market is currently standing just under 1T. I'm unable to find data on the total worldwide value of the commodity market, if you do please comment below with your source. It is estimated that the total amount of money in the world is a couple of quadrillion. Whatever that means. Suddenly, 30 Trillion seems pale in comparison. Furthermore, investment options go far beyond just stocks, cryptocurrency and commodities. Some of the other less frequently discussed options include: 1. High-yield savings accounts 2. Certificates of deposit (CDs) 3. Money market funds 4. Government bonds 5. Corporate bonds 6. Mutual funds 7. Index funds 8. Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) 9. Dividend stocks 10. Real estate Now imagine, scooping off a bit of cream from the top?? You wouldn't need to necessarily wipe out an entire market, but a good 20% to 30% drop across markets and Bob's your uncle ! The money machine carries on until next time it's overspent. Hike interest rates. Increases taxes. Inflation. Liquidate markets. Repeat cycle. So the point that I'm trying to get at is this - remember tot take profits. Nothing wrong with taking a hedge to manage your risk during these uncertain economic times. I personally won't be surprised if there's some major "news event" that sends the markets into a overnight flashcrash soon. I could be totally wrong, in fact I would prefer to be wrong in this case. What are your thoughts on this? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
FRED:GFDEBTN
by CryptoCheck-
25
CDSP peaks are a possible lagging indicator of recession startsThe new CDSP numbers are in for the previous quarter (consumer debt as percentage of household disposable income) . Large spike up in consumer debt loads as people are burning through their last cash and borrowing to keep up their life style before the crash. Goldman-Sachs claims that retail has unloaded their positions from the bull run. Thanks to @FXEvolution for the article. DotCom and GFC also had similar spikes. If a recession has already started, then earnings season will be bad. This fact is what can put us on the path to SPX ~3300-3500 What to do: If the CDSP in the future starts to spike down, it may be an indicator that a recession has already started. Check back in 3+ months.
FRED:CDSP
by MayaUndefined
S&P 500 market will open for the forth day todayThe S&P500 index yesterday closed at its highest trade line level in three days at 3,999.26 as investors turned to US stocks. Most of the gains in this week's pullback in US stock prices have been led by bank stocks as well as shares of some media companies, which were probably untapped by individuals and businesses. The S&P is now up 5.2% this week This is not a piece of financial advice. Hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you
FRED:SP500
by CryptoSanders9563
CPI & Inflation Rate USHello everyone! Let's take a look on what happened yesterday on the US financial market and understand the impact of CPI and inflation rate. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and inflation news from the United States can have a significant impact on financial markets and the value of the U.S. dollar. The CPI measures the change in the price of a basket of goods and services consumed by households, and inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising. When the CPI and inflation numbers are higher than expected , it can indicate that the economy is growing, which can boost stock prices, lead to higher interest rates, and appreciate the dollar. This is because as the economy grows, companies will see increased demand for their products and services, which can lead to higher profits and stock prices. Higher interest rates can also attract more investors to bonds, which can lead to higher bond prices. Additionally, a strong economy can lead to increased demand for U.S. goods and services, and increased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars increases, which can lead to an increase in the value of the dollar. On the other hand, if the CPI and inflation numbers are lower than expected , it can indicate that the economy is slowing down , which can lead to lower stock prices, lower interest rates and depreciation of the dollar. This is because as the economy slows down, companies will see decreased demand for their products and services, which can lead to lower profits and stock prices. Lower interest rates can also lead to less investors in bonds, which can lead to lower bond prices. Additionally, a weak economy can lead to decreased demand for U.S. goods and services, and decreased foreign investment in the U.S. economy. As a result, the demand for dollars decreases, which can lead to a decrease in the value of the dollar. It's important to note that the Federal Reserve uses inflation as an indicator to change the monetary policy, as they use interest rates as a tool to control inflation. Typically if inflation is too high, the Fed will increase interest rates to slow down the economy and curb inflation, and if inflation is too low, the Fed will decrease interest rates to stimulate the economy. These monetary policy decisions can also have an impact on the value of the dollar, as when the Fed raises interest rates, it can make the U.S. a more attractive place to invest, which can lead to an appreciation of the dollar. Conversely, when the Fed lowers interest rates, it can make the U.S. a less attractive place to invest, which can lead to a depreciation of the dollar.
ECONOMICS:USCPIEducation
by m_maia14
A game of head and shoulders... Double top takes the throne The first head and shoulder hit exactly at its text book target before rebounding The now formed INVERSE head and shoulder target would be 4,600 and give the market a chance to form a double top , scoop up all the liquidity from retail jumping back in and then take us down to depths that so far only the most degenerate bears even speak about BTC should likely peak at around 29-33k during this rally before it begins a much harsher drop back to early 2020 price ranges
FRED:SP500
by thecardiak
2
230112- Relation (1) interest rate, (2) Treasury Yield, (3) oil U.S. INTEREST RATES vs TREASURY YIELD vs OIL PRICE Timeframe: 1 month. start: 1972 Blue line: interest rates (USINT) Orange area: 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond Yield (IRLTLT01USM156N) Green Line: oil (scale on the left) (A) WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE ABOVE BOND YIELD, (1) it sparks a financial crisis: 1990, 2000, 2008, 2019 (2) it is followed by a spike in oil price. (3) on smaller timescale, oil price rises and falls with increases and decreases in Treasury Yields. (B) OBSERVATIONS ON INTEREST RATE: (1) Interest Rates have been falling since 1980 (2) Treasury Yields have been declining since 1980 (3) It appears, the Federal Reserves strives for a 5% interest rate. It drops interest rates FAST when the market is too hot, and builds up slowly again, attempting to meat the 5% arbitrary target. (4) As time goes on the Federal Reserve is more cautious in raising interest rates. BUT MOST RECENT RAISES IN INTEREST RATE ARE ALL BUT SLOW. s3.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USINTRLong
by UnknownUnicorn39208297