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OUTSTANDING DEBT as % OF GDP: Annual 2023 Re-cap, forecastThe United States Government Debt is estimated to have reached 137.20 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2021. source: Office of Management and Budget, The White House Outstanding Sovereign Debt in the United States as a Percentage of GDP is a measure of a country's national debt in relation to its economic production. The significance of the United States' outstanding sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP in the global geo-economy is considerable, since the United States has one of the world's largest and most prominent economies. The stability and creditworthiness of the United States government has a direct influence on global financial markets and can affect other countries' capacity to acquire financing. Furthermore, the quantity of US sovereign debt can affect the value of the US dollar, which is the key reserve currency used by central banks worldwide. It is computed by dividing the total outstanding sovereign debt by the GDP of the country. This statistic is frequently used to examine a country's debt burden's sustainability, as a greater ratio might signal a higher chance of default. In the case of the United States, outstanding sovereign debt is the entire amount of money owed to creditors by the federal government, which includes both domestic and international holders of U.S. Treasury bonds. As of 2021, the outstanding sovereign debt in the United States was roughly $22 trillion, or nearly 105% of GDP. This signifies that the federal government of the United States owes more money than the entire worth of goods and services produced in a particular year. The significance of the United States' outstanding sovereign debt as a percentage of GDP in the global geo-economy is considerable, since the United States has one of the world's largest and most prominent economies. The stability and creditworthiness of the United States government has a direct influence on global financial markets and can affect other countries' capacity to acquire financing. Furthermore, the quantity of US sovereign debt can affect the value of the US dollar , which is the key reserve currency used by central banks worldwide. Overall, US outstanding sovereign debt as a proportion of GDP is an important economic statistic that measures the US government's capacity to satisfy its financial obligations while maintaining worldwide trust.
FRED:GFDEGDQ188S
by TayFx
1
US PMI : The one chart that says it ALLIt seems nearly all of the pieces to the puzzle is falling into place. The ISM is the most important LEADING indicator and now ALL is in contraction. Even those who display certain optimism about the state of the economy should now be in doubt. The sudden drop of the Non-Manufacturing PMI from 56.5 (November) to 49.6 (December) is certainly an indication of what is to come. This is certainly worrisome as 70% of the US economy is Services related. Outside of the US, most major countries are already reporting the same contraction. The FINAL piece to the jigsaw will be the one LAGGING indicator - the JOBS market. But there should be no doubt now that unemployment will soon rise. And with inflation continue to fall, we shall soon see the Fed change course. Good luck. P/S : Do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
ECONOMICS:USNMPMI
by i_am_siew
1
Is it the bottom?The graph shows the fall in wage income relative to the rise in prices. We see a rapid decline in the income of citizens. Perhaps this is the effect of the January holidays, because. salaries haven’t yet arrived at the bank and therefore the 3rd week of January is the most depressing. This trend was observed in the period 1979-1981, and it was the bottom of social sentiment. There is one difference - in the past it coincided with the bottom in the stock markets, now, in our opinion, we haven’t reached it. What conclusion can be drawn from these statistics?
FRED:LES1252881600Q
by Financial_Wave
Money Supply Bull Flag ???Maybe this is a massive money supply flag. We have support on the ribbon. Stochastic RSI confirms it. I don't know if this even makes sense, since CURRCIR is a subset of M2SL. On the other hand, who would have thought that in 1990s currency in circulation would increase by 50% in less than a decade. Or is there a ceiling prohibiting more increase? Also look at the ratio between Europe's money supply and US. And my favorite, the most accurate retracement ever. Total "purchasing power" of Europe vs US. Just recently we have reached a perfect golden ratio. 1 in 10.000 accuracy. Maybe this is a harmonic pattern. Feel free to guide me as to what this might be. And how price might continue in the following months/years. A closeup view. Maybe Europe will print so much money that it diminishes its currency. This chart suggests that EURUSD is in reality much weaker than it seems. A lot of Euro is printed compared to Dollars. Maybe they get more hawkish than the US and increase rates to >5%. I am not sure... Prepare for unforeseen consequences I guess? - G-Man, Half-Life 2
FRED:CURRCIR
by akikostas
Leading Indicators - PPI (PPIACO) vs. Unemployment (UNRATE) I wanted to highlight how the peak (downward move) in the Producer Price Index (PPIACO) typically corresponds with the trough (upward move) in the Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) (inverse correlation), as a period of Recession takes hold on the economy, & the financial markets. I also wanted to compare the above correlation with cycle tops in WTI Crude Oil (WTISPLC) , & also with respect to the OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) — as this helps to pinpoint some of the historic baseline(s) for predicting the peak &/or trough in the business vs. market (financial) cycles. Here is the key for the attached chart(s): Top Chart Black Line (Unemployment Rate - UNRATE): *Black Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Trough Blue Line (Producer Price Index - PPIACO): *Blue Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Orange Line (WTI Spot Crude - WTISPLC): *Orange Vertical Dotted Line* = Recession Timing Peak Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Bottom Chart OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): *Black Dashed Line* = Pre-Recession Indicator Peak Green Horizontal Dotted Line = Expansion Baseline (100) Orange Horizontal Dotted Line = Current Reading (98.62) Red Horizontal Dotted Line = Danger Zone (<97) Red Shaded Areas (Recession): Indicator via @chrism665 Looking at the larger picture of both charts, you can see that typically in previous periods of Recession you would see this flow of the signals (first to peak/trough, last to peak/trough): Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM) Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE) *Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO)* *Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC)* *Note* - As you can see PPIACO & WTISPLC are very closely correlated as demand peaks out, you then see a shift downward in WTISPLC as this is a signal of the topping of economic growth. Now let's dive close-up into each time period of recession, as we can see some linkages/similarities in the 1991, 2001, & 2009 recessions vs. the what is (likely) a 23' recession, depending how the economic , markets , & financial data plays out this upcoming year — potentially into 24'. 1991 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): July 1987 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Mar. 1989 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Oct. 1990 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 1990 2001 Recession Timeline Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): Jan. 2000 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Apr. 2000 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): Nov. 2000 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): Jan. 2001 2009 Recession Timeline Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): May 2007 Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): June 2007 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2008 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): July 2008 2023(24) Recession Estimated? Peak - OECD Leading Indicators (USALOLITONOSTSAM): May 2021 Peak - Producer Price Index (PPIACO): June 2022 Peak - WTI Spot Crude (WTISPLC): June 2022 Trough - Unemployment Rate (UNRATE): Sept. 2022 What do you think about this macro analysis? Have we potentially been in a recession in 22' — or are we moving closer to higher unemployment (UNRATE) in 23' as the macro/market conditions worsen, & the Federal Reserve's tighter monetary conditions (liquidity & credit) take their toll on the economy? Let me know what you think in the comments below! 👇🏼
FRED:UNRATEShort
by kylemusserco
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE vs SPXSo as you see - what comes down, must go up - UNEMPLOYMENT RATE is at record lows right now and when it did that - after some consolidation - it sttarted to grow - each time this happened, SPX entered a bear market. Calculating the amount of days since the breakout of the UNRATE trend - it is a range of ~ 100 to 400 days before starting the decline on SPX - right now it looks like UNRATE has broken the trend for more than 300 days already. So the decline isn't far. We haven't seen the worst yet.
FRED:UNRATE
by TheSecretsOfTrading
Number of Sunspots and Inflation CYCLESHi friends Today im going to explain about the relationship between Sunspot Numbers and Inflation rate from 1960 to now. so lets start with inventor of this theory : William Stanley Jevons's In 1875 and 1878 Jevons read two papers before the British Association which expounded his famous "sunspot theory" of the business cycle. Digging through mountains of statistics of economic and meteorological data, Jevons argued that there was a connection between the timing of commercial crises and the solar cycle. it called 5.31-Year Cycle too. In the stock market and in the economy, there are both natural frequencies and artificial excitation frequencies. The four-year presidential election cycle is a great example of an excitation frequency, and it has demonstrable effects on stock prices. The schedule of FOMC meetings 8x per year is another possible example of an artificial excitation frequency. When a demonstrable cycle period appears that one cannot tie to some manmade excitation frequency, then the supposition is that it is a "natural" frequency of the economic system. Something about the economy or the market results in an oscillation on a certain frequency which may not have a good outside explanation. Perhaps it is in how money flows. Perhaps it is in how human brains make decisions about surplus and scarcity. It is hard to know. This 5.31-year frequency in the CPIs cycle seems to fall into that category as a natural cycle, because the 5.31-year period does not match any known excitation frequency related to human activity nor the economic calendar. So that makes it probably a natural frequency. In above chart , there does seem to be a relationship between sunspots and the inflation rate. We see lots of instances when the peak of the sunspot cycle coincided with the peak of the inflation rate. There have been spikes in the inflation rate not tied to the sunspot cycle, such as the spike during the Arab Oil Embargo of 1973-74. this examples did, interestingly, come at the halfway point of the sunspot cycle, fitting the half-period harmonic principle(5.31 year cycle). The current rise in inflation fits both the longstanding 5.31-year cycle and the upswing in the sunspot cycle. Solar researchers expect the current sunspot cycle rise to end in July 2025, which is 3 years from now. But the 5.31-year cycle says a top in the inflation rate is expected right now. That would mean seeing the inflation rate bottoming around 2025 just as the sunspot cycle is peaking. Sometimes cycles present us with conflicts that are hard to reconcile. The point of the 5.31-year cycle that we can take away for right now is that the inflation rate should be falling for the next ~2.2 years. But that does not mean we get to zero percent inflation right away. The drops take a while to unfold. Inflation is likely with us for a while, and we have to get used to that idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by TraderAmin-KZ
2
M2SL | Duplex Megaprinter 8000 ™Back in the 80s, we thought that by 2020 we would have an automated oven and flying cars. All we got is a money printer, and we liked it. We played with it a lot. And this year for Christmas, who wouldn't like some more printer ammo? Since high inflation cannot ensure social stability, we have only one option. Lower inflation. That is the motto of the FED, the hope of every investor, a lower inflation figure. The consumer is overwhelmed from the increasing cost to survive . The inflation war is nowhere near it's end. We have gone from commodity inflation to services inflation, to the everything inflation. We haven't managed to stop it. What if there was another way? Actually there is another way. If you break the oath of "never read the news" and actually read the news, you will realize that the average consumer is getting the help they need from grants. Governments throughout the world have found the way for social stability. They simply buy us off. Record high electricity bill? No problem, here is a grant, the government is paying a percentage of the bill as a help. Expensive fuel? Here are 100€ in fuel discount to go to work. It is like the best Christmas ever. Businesses get to enjoy 100% of the earnings they want, consumers consume, and governments have social and financial stability. They just have to keep the game going, keep the printer full of ink. Everyone is happy. One could say that this perfect scenario we are in cannot fail. And even if it breaks, we keep the printer rolling. Sometime in the not-so-distant-future of course, something could break. We have just moved the problem from the consumer to the investor/corporation/government. We have gained some time. It is just incredibly difficult for me to understand what could break if this game goes on and who will take the dive. At what point will this printer stop helping us? Right now it helps many. Also go out and talk with people, almost nobody talks about inflation as a problem that could completely destabilize the global economy. They just care about the immediate issue, that everything is expensive. We are humans, and not a very wise kind. We are an infant species (like Dr. Breen said). Even now that we realize what we have created, and try to solve it, we do it in a fashion that will ultimately turn against us. We buy out everyone and everything, we have made humans more dependent. With all that technology around us, I realize that we are incredibly fragile. We haven't managed to be empowered from technology, we are swallowed in it. And we hate the word Plan B, imagine how trapped we are in when we don't cover our bases. We buy out our problems because we search for the easy way out. That's the reason we made the printer in the first place. We needed to solve one issue, ignoring the future repercussions. After all that epilogue, I will now add the prologue. This idea is upside down, like everything around us these days. On the main chart, we see that we have found support on the weekly ribbon. The 1M (and 2M) chart suggests that we are heavily supported from below. Do note that dropping oscillator on money supply does not mean significant price drop. Since money supply increases exponentially, a bearish oscillator suggests that we are on the upper side of the trend. This chart shows us the Reverse Repurchase Aggreements. We have RSI divergence, and stochastics dont help the situation. RRPONTTLD dropping is signaling QE. As SPY_Master stated in this idea, this chart shows us the effort the FED does to fight inflation. Yields show a similar picture. We are under significant resistance from the 200EMA in the 2M chart. Stochastics print a bearish signal. CURRCIR/M2SL may be printing a bull flag. What will be the effect if currency-in-circulation increases compared to money supply? How will prices and inflation react? We have already had significant increase in the past year in the ratio. US money supply is showing signs of increasing, or at least stagnating. This chart comparing US and EU is alarming... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
FRED:WM2NS
by akikostas
1
Buffet Indicator applied to todays market conditionsThe Buffet indicator uses overall US equities value compared to GDP as a simple metric. Applying this to previous bubbles there are several similarities indicating a potential recession and downward trend. Recently the Buffet indicator was rejected off of the QE bubble trend. Based on long term levels of fair market ratios in a NON QE environment, the indicator has lower to go. Fundamentals will be crucial over the next few quarters and will require continued growth and EPS to suit in murky market waters. With higher terminal rates, inverted yield curves, sticky inflation, and a consumer credit issue on the horizon (credit card debt is skyrocketing); it'll be a high risk game of chicken between Investors and the Fed all while watching the clock count down to the next quarter HOPING companies can outlast the inflation storm AND hope the fed pivots/reduces rates rather quickly.
FRED:WILL5000PR
by kentoe0001
1
24. A lesson from my experience - Part 3Greetings, Lets continue with our discussion. Today, we will try to look at the BIG picture. I started trading in October 2019. The main reason being that I find this to be challenging. I am trying to see if I can find a way to be profitable. Indeed the journey has been quite rough. I was struggling for 2 years trying to learn. But of course, listening to those 'Gurus' and MAIN STREAM only make things worse. As luck would have it, things started to chance in November 2021 when as luck would have it, I saw something on Youtube that makes me started to think. I will explain on what I had learned and shared it with you. I hope you would think about it yourself and apply common sense. I find that all answers are actually quite easy and plain. We can't see/understand if only because we are constantly being influenced by MAIN STREAM. Lets start off with EURUSD. Recently, many 'Gurus' are getting very excited. They are looking at their favorite INDICATOR DXY - RSI - 1W which is now above 80. They are PREDICTING that it is time for Dollar to fall very soon. Of course, the sheep who are following their guru is equally excited. As I have said previously, do not trade based on prediction. Trade based on facts. If you look at the chart above, inflation is way above FFR. You can see that the Fed's Dot Plot released on 17 March 2022 is very aggressive. They followed through with 50 bps hike on 5 May 2022 despite GDP registering a drop of 1.4% on 28 April 2022. Many had again been predicting that the Fed may capitulate and stop further rate hike!!! It was also said that after every financial crisis, the FRR seems to be trending lower. Back in 2019, the higher the FFR went was 2.5%. And going by 'trend', this time around, the rake hikes will not go beyond that. HAHAHAHA.......... only this time they might have forgot how high inflation is. Lets think about this. Would the Fed capitulate? I do not think so. I think the FFR would go on higher. As per the current Dot Plot, it would be 2.80% at the end of this year. The higher the FFR, the less the LIQUIDITY or Money Supply. Only by reducing Money Supply would inflation be tamed. In doing so, GDP would take a hit. Inflation is the most pressing issue at the moment and can not be left unchecked. How do we trade? I think we would just follow closely the next Fed Dot Plot to be released on 5 May 2022. There is no need for us to make any prediction. Just follow. If the Fed maintain the current stance or even tightened further, then expect EURUSD to fall further. Now lets talk about GOLD and BITCOIN. I do not trade them but it would be good for discussion. A lot of 'Gurus' out there has been making prediction that GOLD will go UP because of INFLATION. They advise their sheep to BUY BUY BUY. I guess by now all of them will be scratching their head. May are also scratching their balls. Why isn't GOLD going up? Actually the answer is very SIMPLE. To them, GOLD is not subjected to the law of Inflation. When price of GOLD goes up, they see it as growth or profit. Believe me, when price of GOLD goes up, it is also called inflation because all goods/services for sale on this earth is subjected to INFLATION. Please bear in mind that GOLD and BITCOIN is denominated in USD. Therefore its rise/fall is WHOLLY dependent on the the availability of USD. SO UNDERSTAND THIS, THE PRICE OF GOLD HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH INFLATION. ALL USD DENOMITED ASSETS ARE ONLY IMPACTED BY THE AVAILABILITY OF USD LIQUIDITY WHICH DEPENDS LARGELY ON THE FFR - CURRENT & EXPECTED. You can track the movement of gold to the M2 money supply. If money supply does not grow, where would the money come from to bid up assets price higher? At the moment, USD money supply % growth is falling. Cash is KING. As such, asset price is also falling - Stocks, Gold, Bitcoin etc. Bitcoin - I do not trade it and also do not follow it. But my advise to you is this, do not trade it for one sole reason - it is very very very very very volatile. Remember, we are here to make money, not to take risk. It is not worth the risk. Also remember, never believe anyone who tells you the price of this and that will go up in the FUTURE. No one knows what will happen in the future. They are just preying on your GREED. Focus solely on trading based on FACTS. Wait for 5 May 2022. Look at the Dot Plot. Then just follow. As for now, the Fed is telling you the FFR is projected to be 2.8% at the end of this year. They are not done with rate hikes. Just follow. Don't argue or make opposite predictions. If you find this useful, please share it with other traders. The sole reason I am doing this is that I know a lot of you guys is currently where I was when I first started. I just hope that my experience may be helpful, especially for beginners. Thank you. P/S : as always, do not just believe what I say. Use your common sense.
FRED:EFFREducation
by i_am_siew
5
Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀The Trimmed Mean PCE inflation stable See the reverse of Bitcoin🟠and the Trimmed Mean PCE⚫️inflation rate👀 Do we see the next Top in PCE and a following #bullish momentum for BTC dear Crypto Nation😎 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
FRED:PCETRIM12M159SFRBDALLong
by Crypto4Everybody
Short IXIC, Long Cryptocurrency into the New Year1. Falling US inflation and rising US fed rates have yet to intersect. They will in 1H'23. ECONOMICS:USIRYY FRED:FEDFUNDS 2. US M2 tightening has reached 3%, but alllowing for some growth, it needs to go (linearly) another 6%-9% for a total of 9%-12% down from its previous all-time-high. ECONOMICS:USM2 3. IXIC is down 35% from its previous all-time -high, but may have to go (geometrically) another 35% for a total of 58% down. NASDAQ:IXIC 4. Cryptocurrency global market capitalisation is at a mere 3.5% of US M2, and has already dropped 60+%. CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Conclusion : US tech equities may be at fundamental 2Y-forward fair value already, but short-term trading factors will harass prices for much of 2023 These short-term risks may be priced in quickly in 1Q'23, otherwise IXIC trades sideways all year, as earnings calls gradually catch up with M2 tightening policy. Meanwhile, as soon as inflation intersects with fed rates around 5.40%-5.70% between 22Mar'23 and 3'May23, optimism will impact crypto before IXIC.
FRED:T5YIELong
by yangjerng
⚫️Existing Home Sales🔵Home prices🔴Top S&P500Not an easy chart but give it a try dear Bitcoin and Crypto Nation Look at connections of different Tops in financial crisis 2008 and possible hints for near future: ⚫️Top Existing Home Sales precursor of 🔵Top Home prices precursor of 🔴Top S&P500 Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗 ⬇️⬇️⬇️ Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗 Disclaimer: Not financial advice Do your own research before investing The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
ECONOMICS:USEHS
by Crypto4Everybody