United States Wages versus SPXWe are heading into something that will first feel like 2000s, but has the potential of turning into something much more like the 1970s. Maybe worst. #fintwit #gold #inflation #recession #spxLongby Badcharts449
United States Wages Since 1964United States wage increase approaching 1970s type of acceleration. #fintwit #inflation #gold #recession #silverLongby Badcharts6
10yr/3mo & fed balance sheetWill they do it? Or will will chicken out and provide relief..Personally, I think Powell is gonna bring the pain. They are still light on QT, by ~200B from upper end targets. I expect November will bring some more drastic movement. Will this make history? Or will we set the pen down and leave the problems for later?Shortby Scott_The_Chartist1
US core CPI vs Fed Funds in periods of high inflation ...US core CPI vs Fed Funds in periods of high inflation ... The Fed has always cut BEFORE core CPI peaked as the chart suggestsby JoaoPauloPires0
House prices top?Drawing a simple parallel channel here I think it is entirely possible that house prices are topping. The trend has just started to go down last month.by MrAndroid0
Crash Incoming 13?Another simple, without noise chart: Effective Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the S&P 500 (dark yellow). Since March, with a macro perspective, almost all my 'crash' ideas are showing that the probability of a major crash is in place; the truth be told, with a boring pattern that keeps repeating itself. I don't know if this time will be different, what I know is that this research, that I am sharing with you disinterestedly, is helping me to build a strategy to protect my wealth. Stay well, stay safe.by SometimesLosingUpdated 2211
Volker legacyplaying around with my own pattern reading on the historical inflation peak and low create my own volker median lime index readby BAOTRADER3691
Fed pivot indicatorThis chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief spike above, and given the length of that chart, maybe 'brief' can be a number of months But as far as what would be normal fed behavior, we're at the tightening limit for interest rates twitter.comby yalla-yalla-habibiUpdated 5513
Is it the right time buy a house? Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months. However, the year over year housing price changes are still providing more room for increase. So, the price conditions may stay elevated in 2023 but the momentum is clearly losing steam. Briefly if you buy a house now, you will possibly feel right for some time but there can be a phase of price correction in 2023 and 2024. Moreover, with softening inflation rates in the coming period, the housing market prices in real terms may be better than today. by Trader_Geist1110
Inflation Rate against CPI IndexAs you can see - all crashes on SPX have been synced with the above chart dipping big time. What do we have now ? The chart hasn't even gone down - yet SPX has dipped -27%. The difference between SPX's TOP and the start of declining of Inflation Rate / CPI is of an average 15-18% decline on SPX. The only problem is that we haven't even started properly declining (circled area). Two assumptions based on this - Either we still have time in this market and this was just a correction... or... ... the fall will be huge. Personally expecting markets to recover a bit and soon inflation rate will spike down together with SPX falling. Not investing big time before seeing a proper spike down. Cheers!by TheSecretsOfTradingUpdated 3
The end of the cheap money era?A pure trend analysis of US interest rates and inflation. In my opinion, the cheap money and low inflation era has ended in the long term.by MichaelFX_ICT332
ROAD MAP FOR WHAT IS AHEAD DATA 120 YRS I am posting so you get the clear picture of what is ahead and just started . remember I stated HOPE well she is a girl in the lifeboat who just used the last of the fresh drinking water to wash her hair !! I stand by my work and DATA to back it up all 120 years of it !!!!by wavetimer114
Is the delinquency rate too good to be true?The red indicator shows the level of delinquency for each quarter. The blue index is the SPX. We have an inverse correlation. With the increase in interest rates around the world, the cost of money becomes more expensive. The payment of loans becomes more expensive, so the percentage of defaulters tends to increase. To pay off debts, positions in the equity market are liquidated. I'm waiting for the Q3 result (quarter 3 - July to September). Any bullish indication above the value of 1.24 (quarter 1) would already be a yellow signal. A value above 1.43 (Q1 2019) would be a red flag for an earthquake. That would trigger a further drop in the equity market...by andre_007117
Sum of every possible USTS Yield SpreadWhat happens if you take every possible US Treasury Yield spread and sum them all together? You get the chart shown on top. $SPX is shown on the bottom for comparison. Vertical lines show where it has crossed below zero in the past. It just crossed below zero again.Shortby dharmatechUpdated 339
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment. First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand. Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun. The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late. Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner. Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered. Be ready my friends! And pray that I am wrong! Stew Shortby stewdamus2211
The Fed Conundrum and the Housing Market CollapseThe Fed money tightening policies are using interest-rates as a lever to fix a balance sheet problem. Higher rates feed right back into the CPI, initiating the doom loop. After the financial crisis of 2008, The Fed employed a policy action to reduce the federal funds rate to a range of 0-0.25% for seven-(7) years, during which time the CPI fell. Post-pandemic (COVID), the CPI is 97% correlated to the Fed balance sheet. Looking historically, in 1980's, the Fed Rate was ~19% (real rate was 8%). Compared to today, the Fed Rate is under 3% and Real Fed Rate is at -6%. Folks already crying about a 3% Fed Rate. A colossal policy error in the making, or is everything going "according to plan"?by shri30389Updated 4419
This is a Chart of the M1SL/BTCUSD up is goodThis chart is a Chart taking the US $ money supply (M1) and / it by the BTCUSD price. The trend that this chart is showing is i think the reason why we need to go down. because the fear value per BTC is low the 15k$ i think. - Take a look at the Gold, Crude OIL and DXY. (Need to go up for stable market) - Take a look at BTC on long term holders chain fees (Need to go above 75 per day Last seen sinds may 2021) low Average Coin Dormancy (Need to go up above 30 on chart for stable/bull market Last seen sinds aug 2021) ---> studio.glassnode.com The BTC Total Supply Last Active 6m-12m and Total Supply Last Active 2y-3y needs to turn up again ---> studio.glassnode.com ---> studio.glassnode.comShortby SPACEMEN99Updated 3
Currency in Circulation versus Producer Price IndexCurrency in circulation breakdowns versus Producer price index. Previous 4 important signals: 1933, 1947, 1973, 2004 Which one does 2021 look most like? #silver #fintwit #inflationShortby Badcharts0
2022-10-17 2y10y spreadArgument for being long, statistically, previous recessions bottomed at these levelsLongby updownbam441
Debt * Growing interest ratesHow long can they play this game? The Debt*Rates lines is just for visualization purposes, not real databy tupacamaro2110
Inflation YoY vs Fed Fund Proxy in the 1940s ... Inflation YoY vs Fed Fund Proxy in the 1940s ... No need to lift rates do match inflation .... something to think about itby JoaoPauloPires1
Rates Rise Building Permits Decline Recession FollowsHere's a chart of the relationship between building permits (which come out this week) interest rates, and recessions. When rates rise permits drop and recession follows. This week's building permit numbers could be are not likely to be good.Educationby AltReports4