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0% Inflation very soon?United States Inflation Rate, Year-over-Year, 1914-2022 chart ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why do I think inflation will go down to 0%? Inflation is currently at the main trendline (established in 1920). This is a very strong resistance, and as a general rule, do not short a support or long a resistance. In other words, you don't want to speculate on inflation increasing when inflation is at its critical point. FED cares about their charts, and they also want the charts to look great. That's why they will push inflation down. ---------------------------------------------------------------- Why the Inflation Rate Matter? The inflation rate demonstrates the health of a country's economy. It is a measurement tool used by a country's central bank, economists, and government officials to gauge whether action is needed to keep an economy healthy. That's when businesses are producing, consumers are spending, and supply and demand are as close to equilibrium as possible. A healthy rate of inflation is good for both consumers and businesses. During deflation, consumers hold on to their cash because the goods will be cheaper tomorrow. Businesses lose money, cutting costs by reducing pay or employment. That happened during the subprime housing crisis. In galloping inflation, consumers spend now before prices rise tomorrow. That artificially increases demand. Businesses raise prices because they can, as inflation spirals out of control. When inflation is steady, at around 2%, the economy is more or less as stable as it can get. Consumers are buying what businesses are selling. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How is inflation measured? There are several ways to measure inflation, but the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the consumer price index. The CPI aggregates price data from 23,000 businesses and 80,000 consumer goods to determine how much prices have changed in a given period of time. If the CPI rises by 3% year over year, for example, then the inflation rate is 3%. The Fed, on the other hand, relies on the price index for personal consumption expenditures (PCE). This index gives more weight to items such as healthcare costs. ---------------------------------------------------------------- How do you hedge against inflation? Because inflation causes money to lose value over time, hedging against it is an important part of any sound investing strategy. Investors use a diversified portfolio with a variety of asset types to offset inflation and ensure that the overall growth of their portfolio outpaces it. ---------------------------------------------------------------- YEAR - INFLATION RATE YOY - FED FUNDS RATE - BUSINESS CYCLE (GDP GROWTH) - EVENTS AFFECTING INFLATION 1929 0.6% NA August peak Market crash 1930 -6.4% NA Contraction (-8.5%) Smoot-Hawley 1931 -9.3% NA Contraction (-6.4%) Dust Bowl 1932 -10.3% NA Contraction (-12.9%) Hoover tax hikes 1933 0.8% NA Contraction ended in March (-1.2%) FDR's New Deal 1934 1.5% NA Expansion (10.8%) U.S. debt rose 1935 3.0% NA Expansion (8.9%) Social Security 1936 1.4% NA Expansion (12.9%) FDR tax hikes 1937 2.9% NA Expansion peaked in May (5.1%) Depression resumes 1938 -2.8% NA Contraction ended in June (-3.3%) Depression ended 1939 0.0% NA Expansion (8.0% Dust Bowl ended 1940 0.7% NA Expansion (8.8%) Defense increased 1941 9.9% NA Expansion (17.7%) Pearl Harbor 1942 9.0% NA Expansion (18.9%) Defense spending 1943 3.0% NA Expansion (17.0%) Defense spending 1944 2.3% NA Expansion (8.0%) Bretton Woods 1945 2.2% NA Feb. peak, Oct. trough (-1.0%) Truman ended WWII 1946 18.1% NA Expansion (-11.6%) Budget cuts 1947 8.8% NA Expansion (-1.1%) Cold War spending 1948 3.0% NA Nov. peak (4.1%) 1949 -2.1% NA Oct trough (-0.6%) Fair Deal, NATO 1950 5.9% NA Expansion (8.7%) Korean War 1951 6.0% NA Expansion (8.0%) 1952 0.8% NA Expansion (4.1%) 1953 0.7% NA July peak (4.7%) Eisenhower ended Korean War 1954 -0.7% 1.25% May trough (-0.6%) Dow returned to 1929 high 1955 0.4% 2.50% Expansion (7.1%) 1956 3.0% 3.00% Expansion (2.1%) 1957 2.9% 3.00% Aug. peak (2.1%) Recession 1958 1.8% 2.50% April trough (-0.7%) Recession ended 1959 1.7% 4.00% Expansion (6.9%) Fed raised rates 1960 1.4% 2.00% April peak (2.6%) Recession 1961 0.7% 2.25% Feb. trough (2.6%) JFK's deficit spending ended recession 1962 1.3% 3.00% Expansion (6.1%) 1963 1.6% 3.5% Expansion (4.4%) 1964 1.0% 3.75% Expansion (5.8%) LBJ Medicare, Medicaid 1965 1.9% 4.25% Expansion (6.5%) 1966 3.5% 5.50% Expansion (6.6%) Vietnam War 1967 3.0% 4.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1968 4.7% 6.00% Expansion (4.9%) Moon landing 1969 6.2% 9.00% Dec. peak (3.1%) Nixon took office 1970 5.6% 5.00% Nov. trough (0.2%) Recession 1971 3.3% 5.00% Expansion (3.3%) Wage-price controls 1972 3.4% 5.75% Expansion (5.3%) Stagflation 1973 8.7% 9.00% Nov. peak (5.6%) End of gold standard 1974 12.3% 8.00% Contraction (-0.5%) Watergate 1975 6.9% 4.75% March trough (-0.2%) Stop-gap monetary policy confused businesses and kept prices high 1976 4.9% 4.75% Expansion (5.4%) 1977 6.7% 6.50% Expansion (4.6%) 1978 9.0% 10.00% Expansion (5.5%) 1979 13.3% 12.00% Expansion (3.2%) 1980 12.5% 18.00% Jan. peak (-0.3%) Recession 1981 8.9% 12.00% July trough (2.5%) Reagan tax cut 1982 3.8% 8.50% November (-1.8%) Recession ended 1983 3.8% 9.25% Expansion (4.6%) Military spending 1984 3.9% 8.25% Expansion (7.2%) 1985 3.8% 7.75% Expansion (4.2%) 1986 1.1% 6.00% Expansion (3.5%) Tax cut 1987 4.4% 6.75% Expansion (3.5%) Black Monday crash 1988 4.4% 9.75% Expansion (4.2%) Fed raised rates 1989 4.6% 8.25% Expansion (3.7%) S&L Crisis 1990 6.1% 7.00% July peak (1.9%) Recession 1991 3.1% 4.00% Mar trough (-0.1%) Fed lowered rates 1992 2.9% 3.00% Expansion (3.5%) NAFTA drafted 1993 2.7% 3.00% Expansion (2.8%) Balanced Budget Act 1994 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.0%) 1995 2.5% 5.50% Expansion (2.7%) 1996 3.3% 5.25% Expansion (3.8%) Welfare reform 1997 1.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.4%) Fed raised rates 1998 1.6% 4.75% Expansion (4.5%) LTCM crisis 1999 2.7% 5.50% Expansion (4.8%) Glass-Steagall repealed 2000 3.4% 6.50% Expansion (4.1%) Tech bubble burst 2001 1.6% 1.75% March peak, Nov. trough (1.0%) Bush tax cut, 9/11 attacks 2002 2.4% 1.25% Expansion (1.7%) War on Terror 2003 1.9% 1.00% Expansion (2.9%) JGTRRA 2004 3.3% 2.25% Expansion (3.8%) 2005 3.4% 4.25% Expansion (3.5%) Katrina, Bankruptcy Act 2006 2.5% 5.25% Expansion (2.9%) 2007 4.1% 4.25% Dec peak (1.9%) Bank crisis 2008 0.1% 0.25% Contraction (-0.1%) Financial crisis 2009 2.7% 0.25% June trough (-2.5%) ARRA 2010 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (2.6%) ACA, Dodd-Frank Act 2011 3.0% 0.25% Expansion (1.6%) Debt ceiling crisis 2012 1.7% 0.25% Expansion (2.2%) 2013 1.5% 0.25% Expansion (1.8%) Government shutdown. Sequestration 2014 0.8% 0.25% Expansion (2.5%) QE ends 2015 0.7% 0.50% Expansion (3.1%) Deflation in oil and gas prices 2016 2.1% 0.75% Expansion (1.7%) 2017 2.1% 1.50% Expansion (2.3%) 2018 1.9% 2.50% Expansion (3.0%) 2019 2.3% 1.75% Expansion (2.2%) 2020 1.4% 0.25% Contraction (-3.4%) COVID-19 2021 7.0% 0.25% Expansion (5.9%) COVID-19 2022 8.3% 3.25% Contraction (-1.6%) As of Sept. 21. 2022 2023 2.7% (est.) 2.8% (est.) Expansion (2.2%) March 2022 projection
ECONOMICS:USIRYYEducation
by UnknownUnicorn2537518
56
M3 MONEY SUPPLY VS $FXIA KEY INDICATOR FOR SHORTING OR LONGING US EQUITIES; SUCH AS SPY iShares China Large-Cap ETF VS M3 M3 is a collection of the money supply that includes M2 money as well as large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase agreements, and larger liquid funds. M3 is closely associated with larger financial institutions and corporations than with small businesses and individuals. WE BELIEVE THIS IS A LEADING KEY INDICATOR WHEN DECIDING AND TIMING TO SHORT THE EQUITY MARKETS THESE TWO UNCORRELATED STOCKS HAVE SHOWN TREMENDOUS MARKET BUYING OPPORTUNITY ADMIST HIGH VOLATILE TIMES, REFER TO '08 LEVELS, NOTICE TREND WAS INDICATED BACK IN '07. ASLAMCAPITALGROUP.COM 2022. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED
FRED:MABMM301USM189S
by oaslamuic
Crash Incoming 13?Another simple, without noise chart: Effective Federal Funds Rate (blue) and the S&P 500 (dark yellow). Since March, with a macro perspective, almost all my 'crash' ideas are showing that the probability of a major crash is in place; the truth be told, with a boring pattern that keeps repeating itself. I don't know if this time will be different, what I know is that this research, that I am sharing with you disinterestedly, is helping me to build a strategy to protect my wealth. Stay well, stay safe.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by SometimesLosing
2
Fed pivot indicatorThis chart is essentially proxy for the acceleration rate of interest expense for the US government, and has been a reliable indicator of fed pivot for 30+ years as the fed has ensured the US doesn't enter a debt death spiral. To keep this line 'inbounds' they need the middle of the curve to fall ~75bp between now and the 24th Or maybe they'll allow a brief spike above, and given the length of that chart, maybe 'brief' can be a number of months But as far as what would be normal fed behavior, we're at the tightening limit for interest rates twitter.com
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by yalla-yalla-habibi
5
Is it the right time buy a house? Since Fed's tapering began in the end of 2021, mortgage figures have been in a mark up phase. There is still no indication of a correction. As a result of it, housing prices may not find support for new high levels. Monthly price changes in the negative territory are supporting this idea in the last months. However, the year over year housing price changes are still providing more room for increase. So, the price conditions may stay elevated in 2023 but the momentum is clearly losing steam. Briefly if you buy a house now, you will possibly feel right for some time but there can be a phase of price correction in 2023 and 2024. Moreover, with softening inflation rates in the coming period, the housing market prices in real terms may be better than today.
FRED:MORTGAGE30US
by Trader_Geist
1
Inflation Rate against CPI IndexAs you can see - all crashes on SPX have been synced with the above chart dipping big time. What do we have now ? The chart hasn't even gone down - yet SPX has dipped -27%. The difference between SPX's TOP and the start of declining of Inflation Rate / CPI is of an average 15-18% decline on SPX. The only problem is that we haven't even started properly declining (circled area). Two assumptions based on this - Either we still have time in this market and this was just a correction... or... ... the fall will be huge. Personally expecting markets to recover a bit and soon inflation rate will spike down together with SPX falling. Not investing big time before seeing a proper spike down. Cheers!
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by TheSecretsOfTrading
Is the delinquency rate too good to be true?The red indicator shows the level of delinquency for each quarter. The blue index is the SPX. We have an inverse correlation. With the increase in interest rates around the world, the cost of money becomes more expensive. The payment of loans becomes more expensive, so the percentage of defaulters tends to increase. To pay off debts, positions in the equity market are liquidated. I'm waiting for the Q3 result (quarter 3 - July to September). Any bullish indication above the value of 1.24 (quarter 1) would already be a yellow signal. A value above 1.43 (Q1 2019) would be a red flag for an earthquake. That would trigger a further drop in the equity market...
FRED:DRALACBS
by andre_007
1
Housing Market Crash Incoming!Demand always rules supply. Always. BLUF: Short-term projection = TBD Mid-term projection = bullish Long-term projection = bearish to extremely bearish Traders, I have been quick to point out the tremendous amount of disinflationary data in my videos which leads CPI reports in some cases by as much as 6 months (i.e. -rent). Now, let's take a closer look at the NAHB's Housing Market Index data which helps us to better denote market sentiment. First, observe that we have entered well below the weak demand zone. This is generally an area in which we can notice softening demand. Though the housing market may still remain hot in certain cities, others have noted softening demand. Once we dive below this "Weakening Demand Zone", it can often represent the beginning of a housing market recession, or, in the case of the 2008 era, a crash! We began this crash with certain city markets plummeting through this weakening demand zone, Detroit comes to mind along with a few others. These were our lead cities to watch at the time. At the point in which weakness in these markets began to be acknowledged and reported, it was already too late. Michael Bury (aka - The Big Short) knew this. The crash had begun. The markets did not react immediately, as we all know. In fact, the opposite: it would be a full 17 months before the stock markets reached their tops and then crashed hard. In a similar fashion, the Fed was notoriously tardy in recognizing lead disinflationary indicators and reducing rates accordingly. Not until a full year and two months AFTER the housing demand fell below its weakening zone would the Fed jump in and begin to diminish rates. By then it was too late. Fast forward to 2022. Despite the fact that our U.S. housing demand has fallen far below the weakening demand zone and below the approximate median for a housing crash start, the Fed continues to raise rates at a historic record pace. These rate hikes will come home to roost eventually, but not immediately. This is why I am under the persuasion that we WILL enter a more disastrous recession or worse in 2023. The lag effect of the Fed rate hikes will have a significant consequential impact. Just as in our past housing market crash story the impact will be significantly delayed and by the time they are noticeably felt, it will be far too late. Disinflationary data, low demand, low consumer sentiment, etc., will have hit us harder far in advance and the Fed will have realized they should have pivoted sooner. Though my longer-term outlook appears rather dismal at the onset, my mid-term outlook may be rather surprising to many. I do believe that just as occurred before the 2007-2008 market crash, the preceding price action will become bullish. It took the market a full 17 months to recognize the significance of our housing data, and the fed wasn't much better. Will it be any better this time around? It might be, but as we can learn from history, the market collective and the fed are often irrational and reactionary. The case for my blowoff top past the previous year's November highs still stands. The market will begin to recognize and digest more and more disinflationary data not least of which is housing market demand. The Fed will begin to be pressured more and more to pivot. And whether due to pressure or reason, I believe they will pause or pivot soon. Then the meltup (aka blowoff top) will begin. And sometime mid to late 2023, it all ends. Secular bull market (since 2009) exited. Secular bear market entered. Be ready my friends! And pray that I am wrong! Stew
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
2