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Economy

Recession Probability Outcome heres my chart im going be posting and looking at over the next year something that will be on everybodys mind come election and new year-- how to tackle inflation and recession--- probabilities. I am neutral for which I dont have many indicators that will work with this i dont believe so I will have to do some searching on google- for some examples of indicators and write my own with this--- on the second chart I post for this exchange. Recession probabilities. The base or starting line--for this project--will be adjusted and watched with due diligence. We will adjust and continue working with this project as months progress into the future.
FRED:RECPROUSM156NLong
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd
Fuel SeasonalityAs someone who works in industry with large consumption of diesel fuel, we are very concerned and interested in fuel. This past few weeks while gasoline is dropping, diesel fuel is in a price similar to the beginning of Ukraine war. So when will prices go back to "normal"? As you can see in the included image, relative price between gasoline and diesel is very consistent in the way it moves every year. With a very similar and consistent variance. Diesel remained abnormally high between August of 2008 to January of 2009, bottoming in May 2009. This is apparent in the seasonality chart I made. Because of the extreme prices gasoline reached during the summer, the problem for diesel will continue for the entire winter. A single event (Ukraine war) caused a price chaos that lasts a year. Who knows what extremities will occur if, god forbid, a scaled war begins. PS. I have made statistics regarding DJI, kWh, NG1!, RB1!/USOIL, and RB2!-RB1! Maths and statistics are beautiful. This is not trading advice, this is art. Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
FRED:DDFUELUSGULF
by akikostas
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday) German Manufacturing PMI UK Manufacturing PMI October 4 (Tuesday) US ISM Manufacturing PMI RBA Interest Rate Decision October 5 (Wednesday) US JOLTs Job Openings UK Composite PMI US ADP Employment Change October 6 (Thursday) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Australia Trade Balance UK Construction PMI Eurozone Retail Sales Canada Ivey PMI October 7 (Friday) US Nonfarm Payrolls Canada Unemployment Rate What You Need to Know This Week: 🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35% 🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market. 🔸 No major earnings report this week. More information on Mitrade website.
FRED:CE16OV
by Mitrade_official
Market Analysis based on QT & FED Liquidity TrackerThis is intended to be an analysis and comparison of the effect that the FED's interest rates + QT have had on the stock market during the first half of 2022, in an attempt to forecast the the impact doubling QT will have over the 2nd half and into 2023. I am still very new to both Technical Analysis, as well as the deeply interconnected workings of the financial market, so I am sharing this with the wider community in hopes of receiving and growing through feedback and even correction - so please feel free to share (I'd rather learn and grow than be right). Thanks!
FRED:WALCLShort
by trenno
1
Inflation always comes fighting back..... NUKE IT. Inflation always comes fighting back. You hit it with a bat, it brings a knife. You Stab it with a knife, It pulls a gun. You pull a gun, It brings a tank... NUKE IT. In the early 1980's Fed Chair Paul Volker raised the federal fund rate to a high of 19%. The inflation rate at that time was well above 10% and had been on and off for almost a decade. As usual this killed confidence in the Fed's ability to keep price stability which led to more inflation. Raising the rate continuously and rapidly is the only way to stomp the nation killer, Inflation. Now we are in a similar position, only we have historical data to use and stop ourselves from creating a decade of higher prices and lack of money for those who need it most. The Fed must swiftly raise our rate above 5%. Swiftly meaning yesterday. Yes, this brings shorter term pain. Yes, this means recession or maybe worse. BUT... Nothing is worse than hyper inflation. Don't believe me? Ask the Germans, it was so bad they birthed Adolf Hitler.
ECONOMICS:USCCPIShort
by Hasbula
1
Fed funds rate chasing core inflationPrior to 2008 most of the time the FFR was above core inflation. We are now in a situation that we haven't been in decades where the fed is chasing inflation. The chance of the market breaking in this environment is very high. If you have the patience to wait out these macro indicators like the re-inversion of the yield curve and the catching up of the inflation rate by the FFR i think you will get amazing market deals in all asset classes. The thing is that no on knows how much time it will take. Might take 1 year might take 5 years.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by BGMind_Control