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M2SL/SPX vs inflation and interest rateIndicator under study: - M2SL (dollar supply) - SPX500 (standard & poor 500) - USINTR (interest rate) - USIRYY (inflation) Consideration on how the market could move: - M2SL Up - SPX500 Down - USINTR Up - USIRYY Up - Inflation should be at peak - Interest rate not at peak and the prevision tell they can double during the next month - The Fed start to increase interest rate late respect the growth of inflation - The Dollar supply is 27% over the trendline Until the interest rate reach a peak it's difficult to see green candle in SPX. Because now it's more important slow down the inflation. In history high interest rate imply bear market and recesion
FRED:M2SLShort
by lupas92
M2SL/SPX500 ratio Analysis combined with M2SL and SPX500Assumptions: - Taking into account the last 20 year of history - Vertical line at the point where a recession start (SPX500 start to retrace) and M2SL make new low - The last 3 cycles last almost the same (6-7 years) Analysis: - The trend of M2SL/SPX500 inversely proportional to the price of SPX - M2SL/SPX500 approach a big resistance - In the last cycles M2SL have a steady growth but in this last one we have a lot of liquidity, up-trend of interest rate. This could imply a fall of SPX
FRED:M2SLShort
by lupas92
#SPX 5th Corrective Wave Continuation for #SP500 4 corrective waves succesfully done and now proceed to 5th wave. Probable targets are given on the chart. This was the most important part, the technical analysis . Neither global conditions (EU Energy crysis, war threats, inflation and covid rise), neither astrologic conditions (Jupiter retro will not leave 23 - 28th Oct) doesn' t allow a real bounce. And #dollar index $DXY is growing and EUR is weakening. It' s time be most careful. After the 5th wave dip, an ABC bounce is expected. Not financial advice. DYOR.
FRED:SP500Short
by naphyse
Inflation / Unemployment / Stocks2022 is most comparable to 1978 in terms of the current jobs & inflation situation. Seven decades of history concerning the 3, shows that the current drop in stocks is more likely a correction and not the start of a true bear market. 1972-73 scenario is 1 against 6 odds (and that's after demoting 1978 to equal the others). It also usually takes a long time for unemployment to carve a bottom. Even if we assume that right now it's doing so, we're still too early.
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Indotermes
6 Rules of SuccessI get asked all time how I've been successful in my lifetime. I started out with nothing. $0 and living on my own at an early age, a high school dropout. I worked at learning computers every minute of the day for decades. Before I knew it, everyone around me was coming to me for the next idea, the next problem to solve. Not having a strong support system that most post-sec schooling students had. I clung to 80s and 90s role models in Hollywood like Arnold Schwarzenegger. His 6 rules of success resonated with me and I adopted them in the same regard as others would adopt religious beliefs. His rules of success are: 1) Trust Yourself - If you don't believe you will be successful, nobody else will. 2) Break Some Rules - Not the law , but the rules you think society has placed on you or holding you back. 3) Don't be Afraid to Fail - Learn from your mistakes and eventually there won't be any failures you are not prepared for. 4) Ignore the Naysayers - The easiest rule but sadly the hardest to follow. When people tell me I'm wrong, or a clown I feel energized that I'm on the right path. 5) Work Like Hell - I can't understate how much this rule is required. If you're not constantly learning and working towards your goal, others will pass you. 6) Give Something Back - When you mastered the other 5 rules, you will be successful. When you are, help someone out, encourage others, tell your story and it might inspire the next Arnold. When I was given my first shot, everyday I worked overtime. In the office before everyone, the last to leave. I wasn't even paid OT (salary position). It wasn't long before I noticed the CEO getting to the office earlier to beat me in and staying until I left. My first pay raise was x2 my salary after the first 3 months. That was shortly after I cost the company nearly 100k in shipping charges when I made a mistake in programming that was shipped out across the country. The moral of the story is the CEO saw how hard I was working, changed his routines to support me (giving something back, working like hell) and looked past any mistakes. When I left and went to my next job, I was senior, then given ownership, now on my own. If you work like hell for what makes you happy. You will get it.
FRED:A072RC1Q156SBEA
by SPYvsGME
7
10 Charts You Must See#10 Mortgages The chart below shows the average single-family U.S. home price multiplied by the 30-year fixed mortgage rate. This chart attempts to show how dramatically higher the financial burden of home ownership has become in the United States. Using a cross chart allows us to better visualize the rate of change. Each cross represents one month. We can see that the current situation looks even more drastic than the subprime mortgage crisis that preceded the Great Recession. Although wages are rising, the rate of change in the cost of home ownership is rising much faster. In this regard, one may conclude that extreme inflation in home prices coupled with a rapidly rising mortgage rates makes every borrower today subprime. #9 Tech Bubble The yearly chart below shows the ratio between tech's performance (QQQ) and the performance of the S&P 500 (SPY). Notice that in 2020 and 2021 tech tried but was unable to close above the peak before the Dotcom Bust. Tech stocks then crashed in the first half of 2022. Take a look at the yearly (or semi-yearly) Stochastic RSI oscillators in the series of relative charts below. Could these charts suggest that Microsoft is about to underperform the Nasdaq for years, that the Nasdaq in turn may underperform the S&P 500 for years, that the S&P 500 in turn may underperform Gold for years, and that Gold may underperform U.S. Treasuries on the 6-month timeframe? Using oscillators in this manner is limitedly valid but one may ponder what these charts say about the future. A shift of investment allocation in this manner typically occurs during a financial crisis. For those who may not already be familiar, check out Exter's Pyramid below. During financial crises market participants typically flee the riskier assets near the top of the inverted pyramid due to these assets' vulnerability to default. Simultaneously, market participants accumulate the more secure and tangible assets lower on the inverted pyramid. This is not a trade or portfolio reallocation recommendation. The QQQ/SPY chart is adjusted for dividends. The GOLD/TLT chart is on a 6M rather than yearly chart merely because not enough data exists to generate a Stochastic RSI on the yearly level. #8 Japan's Debt Although what you see below may look like a single chart of a bell curve, it is actually two charts placed side-by-side. On the left side is a quarterly chart of the balance sheet of Japan's central bank. As you can see, the amount of Yen on the central bank's balance sheet is trending up toward one quadrillion. In contrast, on the right side is a chart that shows the amount of gold that each Japanese Yen can purchase. As you can see, the amount of Gold that a single Japanese Yen can purchase is quickly approaching zero. Smoothened moving averages were used to generate these charts to simplify and enhance the visualization of trends. #7 Crypto Winter The below yearly chart shows the equation 1/BTCUSD, which mathematically represents how much Bitcoin a single U.S. dollar can buy, (or simply USD/BTC). Despite having major “crypto winters” about once every several years, the amount of Bitcoin that one fiat U.S. dollar can buy continues to trend endlessly toward zero (not much unlike the Yen to Gold chart above). The U.S. dollar loses value over time as more and more dollars are created, which must always continue in a debt-based economy. During periods when the Federal Reserve tightens the money supply, the rise in the U.S. dollar’s value relative to Bitcoin is barely noticeable in the chart, even when log-adjusted. Next time someone tells you that Bitcoin is going to zero show them this chart, which technically shows that the exact opposite is more true. This is not trading or investment advice, Bitcoin and all intangible cryptocurrency assets are highly volatile. You can lose a lot or all of your money trading or investing in these assets. #6 Dollar Index As the below chart shows, the dollar index appears be breaking out of a yearly bull flag and breaking above the yearly exponential moving averages (EMA) ribbon for the first time ever. If this trend continues, what economic consequences might this have? The Dollar Milkshake Theory attempts to answer that question: www.youtube.com #5 Shiller PE Ratio The Shiller PE Ratio is often used as a measure of stock market valuation. The below chart shows that stocks are so overvalued that even after one of the worst first halves of the year in stock market history, stock valuations have merely come down to the same level as the peak before the Great Depression. #4 Stock Market Channel The below stock market channel was created by me using a series of regression lines based on standard deviation from the mean price of the entire history of the S&P 500. As the charts show, the S&P 500 is near record levels above the mean even after the selloff during the first half of 2022. #3 Cost of Debt The below chart attempts to illustrate the cost to the United States of servicing its debt (i.e. interest payments). More specifically, the chart shows the monthly rate of change for the equation of total public debt multiplied by the Fed Funds rate (as a decimal). As you can see, we've never seen an explosive jump in the monthly rate of change in debt service to this degree ever since data became available about 55 years ago. This chart was introduced to me by @prd001 . It is unscientific and is a mere thought experiment. For official, but lagging, data you can view the Federal Reserve's data on interest payments (Symbol: A091RC1Q027SBEA). #2 Monetary Easing The below chart attempts to illustrate just how unprecedented monetary easing is. It provides a visual representation of the total assets on the government's balance sheet as a percentage of nominal GDP. It uses the Bank of England's balance sheet because it provides the most reliable comprehensive records since 1700. The chart then superimposes the Federal Reserves' assets (relative to the U.S. nominal GDP) in the present-day to illustrate the fact that at no point over the past 322 years has such a large amount of assets, as a percentage of nominal GDP, been the norm. Monetary easing is therefore a modern economic experiment. How might it end? #1 Climate Change This chart is so consequential that it has led to the creation of a new epoch in human existence: the Anthropocene Epoch. The chart shows the meteoric rise of carbon dioxide in the earth's atmosphere. Here are some video you should watch: Climate Spiral: www.youtube.com Carbon Dioxide Pump Handle: www.youtube.com If there is one chart that all future generations will attribute to everyone living today, it is this.
ECONOMICS:USSFHP
by SpyMasterTrades
18
The Only Chart That Matters for The Next DecadeConsumer Price Index Year over Year (CPI YOY) vs 2 Year Yield (2YY) vs Fed Funds. To even begin to arrest inflation, the Fed has to get Fed Funds above the 2YY. To break the back of inflation, the Fed must get Fed Funds above CPI YOY. Does the most recent drop in CPI YOY mean that peak inflation is already in? People forget that when inflation runs hot, so does its volatility. For lasting inflation reduction, the Fed has to get to the real neutral rate. And consider that the CPI formula you are seeing in this chart has been altered numerous times, proponents would say to better reflect productivity gains, critics would say to mask real inflation to benefit the government. Whatever you believe, if we calculated CPI the way we did in 1980 it would be nearing 18% . So it's much, much worse than this. This is the only chart that matters for the next decade.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by UnknownUnicorn1334230
UK House prices have toppedUK house prices seem to have topped and look likely to correct to uptrending support. If history repeats (like 2008) then it will take 19 months for the retracement to complete. If you are looking to buy a house in the UK then you are advised to wait until April 2024, and buy the bottom. If we enter a protracted recession / depression then house prices may fall to the 2008 high. My estimate for UK house price retracement is 19-20% at best, with up to 33% at worst. Hold on. ECONOMICS:GBHPI
ECONOMICS:GBHPIShort
by Algorithm
Global Commodity Price Index versus SPXCommodities are basic good used in commerce of primary origin, produced on a large scale and used as raw materials by various economic agents. Examples are soy, corn, cotton, meat, oil, natural gas, wood and water. They are classified, according to their origin, into agricultural, livestock, mineral and environmental. Its main function is the supply of raw materials for the production of industrialized goods. Its commercialization works, according to the international market, through negotiations carried out on stock exchanges. They are of paramount importance for the supply of primary goods for the functioning of society. (Mundo Educação - UOL) This index represents the benchmark prices which are representative of the global market. They are determined by the largest exporter of a given commodity. Prices are period averages in nominal U.S. dollars. (fred.stlouisfed.org) This index is at an all-time high, due to the high cost of energy and the world apocalyptic scenario. The Stochastic RSI on the monthly chart is about to cross downwards. Allied to this, the correlation with SPX is decreasing, which could indicate an important moment. Historically, when these two technical events happened (stochastic crossing down and correlation falling), there was a sharp drop in SPX. This can be seen in the red circles.
FRED:PALLFNFINDEXQShort
by andre_007
We're entering uncharted terrritory with debt and interestWe're about to make history y'all! But not for a good reason... We're breaking out of the interest rate bear trend we've been in for over 35 years. We used to raise interest rates to help control the debt; but after we abandoned the gold standard it didn't work so well. Going forward the economy could handle less and less rate hikes, while debt sky-rocketed. You'll also notice in vertical red, are market peaks before big crashes. For the last 20 years, a crash always follows the hike. Then the government uses it as an excuse to take on more debt. Something else unique about this hike is that the yield curve inverted from the beginning of the hikes, when in the past it only inverted near the end of several hikes. You can see that in the link below.
FRED:FEDFUNDS
by Nicklaus68
2
Working Money vs Stock MarketM2 is the money in circulation issued by the government. (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is the real value of M2 deflated by the CPIAUCSL (Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers). (fred.stlouisfed.org) (fred.stlouisfed.org) M2REAL is in an infinite uptrend, with a downward correction now. The correlation with SPX is positive as both are falling. A change in correlation, either up or down, could indicate a move in SPX. Scenarios: 1. M2REAL falling, SPX falling: positive correlation 2. M2REAL rising, SPX rising: positive correlation 3. M2REAL falling, SPX rising: negative correlation 4. M2REAL rising, SPX falling: negative correlation With money more scarce and expensive due to inflation, I believe more in scenario 1. After this inflationary crisis is over, maybe scenarios 2 and 4.
FRED:M2REALShort
by andre_007
#checktherulerThis is not about TA. We are off the rails. The entire world is being repriced and the market has been telling us this for over a decade. That's right. Look at the chart. The all-asset class meltup is real. We've watched analysts trip over themselves for years trying to explain away valuations and attempt to come up with an explanation for the market's behavior. It's not the market. Price discovery is not broken, but it is telling us something... When nothing is measuring correctly ---> check the ruler. That which we measure value by is broken. Thoughts?
FRED:SP500Long
by pharmer75
2