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Lower inflation do not mean things will become cheaperLower inflation and interest rates do not necessarily mean that prices will decrease. If I annualize the inflation numbers instead of focusing on the monthly figures, the overall picture becomes much clearer. 2 and 10 Year Yield Futures Ticker: 2YY, 10Y Minimum fluctuation: 0.001 Index points (1/10th basis point per annum) = $1.00 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • Our mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
ECONOMICS:USIRYYLong
by konhow
7
UAGASP / UKRAINIAN GAS PRICEUAGASP/USD Analysis with Geopolitical and Economic Context: The chart reflects the average price of gasoline in Ukraine denominated in USD. The key dates highlighted on the chart are critical for understanding potential future shifts in gasoline prices based on global and local factors. Historical Context: • Long-Term Average Price: Historically, the average price of gasoline globally has been between $1 and $1.3 per liter. This benchmark serves as a reference point when analyzing the current and projected prices in Ukraine. • Current Trends: The chart shows a significant rise in gasoline prices in recent years, correlating with global economic shifts, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions, particularly involving energy-rich regions. Key Dates and Potential Influences: 1. December 2026 (12/01/26) - Potential Price Surge: • Scenario: By the end of 2026, several factors could drive a significant increase in gasoline prices. These include geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions (such as the Middle East or Russia), global economic recovery post-pandemic leading to higher demand, and potential supply constraints. • Impact on Prices: The price of gasoline could surpass historical averages, driven by both increased global oil prices and local factors like currency depreciation, higher transportation costs, and increased excise taxes. 2. October 2029 (10/01/29) - Stabilization or Decline: • Scenario: By late 2029, technological advancements, a potential increase in global oil supply, or shifts towards alternative energy sources could stabilize or even reduce gasoline prices. Additionally, Ukraine’s economic situation might improve, strengthening the Hryvnia against the USD and mitigating price increases. • Impact on Prices: Prices might stabilize, returning closer to the historical average of $1-$1.3 per liter, assuming reduced demand for gasoline due to a potential increase in electric vehicle (EV) adoption and alternative energy sources. Global and Local Factors Influencing Gasoline Prices: • Global Oil Prices: The price of gasoline is heavily influenced by global oil prices, which can fluctuate due to geopolitical events, OPEC decisions, and shifts in global demand. • Currency Exchange Rate: The strength of the Hryvnia against the USD plays a crucial role in determining local gasoline prices. A weaker Hryvnia would increase the cost of imported oil, leading to higher gasoline prices. • Transportation and Distribution Costs: Rising transportation costs, driven by higher fuel prices or logistical challenges, could further increase the price of gasoline in Ukraine. • Government Policies: Changes in excise taxes, subsidies for alternative energy, or regulations aimed at reducing carbon emissions could impact gasoline prices. Higher taxes on fossil fuels could drive prices up, encouraging a shift towards more sustainable energy sources. Consider the Shift to Electric Vehicles (EVs): With the potential for sustained high gasoline prices and increasing environmental concerns, it might be time to consider the benefits of switching to electric vehicles. Tesla, a leading EV manufacturer, represents a significant shift in the automotive industry towards cleaner, more sustainable transportation options. • Cost Savings: Over the long term, EVs could provide significant savings on fuel costs, particularly if gasoline prices remain high. • Environmental Impact: Reducing reliance on gasoline can contribute to lower greenhouse gas emissions, aligning with global efforts to combat climate change. • Technological Advancements: Tesla and other EV manufacturers continue to innovate, improving battery technology, increasing vehicle range, and reducing the overall cost of ownership. Conclusion and Reader’s Consideration: As gasoline prices in Ukraine and globally continue to fluctuate, driven by a complex mix of geopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, it raises an important question for consumers: “Is it time to transition to electric vehicles?” Exploring options like Tesla and analyzing the broader EV market could be a forward-thinking strategy in an era of rising fuel costs and increasing environmental awareness. The shift towards EVs not only offers potential cost savings but also supports global sustainability goals. What are your thoughts? Is now the right time to consider going electric?
ECONOMICS:UAGASP
by trushkovskiy
btc/rrpas i come from hibernation to give you the mother of all shorts... BTC and i have multiple reasons why... 1. groups.csail.mit.edu 2. japan carry trade (alot of crypto was purchased using negative loans in yen) and 3. giving the keys to larry tinkle finkle (the OG financial crisis architect). laugh all you want if im wrong im wrong and ill be able to offload my bag at 100k like the rest of the masses, or im right will have a massive discount and still sell my bag high and have a great opportunity to buy more...
FRED:RRPONTSYD
by tntaz008
UAWAG/USD / Salaries in UkraineUAWAG/USD Analysis with Geopolitical Context: The chart reflects the average wage in Ukraine denominated in USD, showing significant fluctuations over time. Key dates are marked on the chart, which align with potential changes in geopolitical scenarios and their impact on Ukraine's economy. Key Dates and Potential Influences: July 2027 (07/01/27) - Post-Conflict Economic Rebuilding: Scenario: By mid-2027, if the previously discussed freeze or resolution in the conflict with Russia is maintained, Ukraine could enter a phase of economic rebuilding. International aid, investments in infrastructure, and efforts to stabilize the economy may start showing tangible results. Impact on Salaries: With the economy stabilizing, there may be gradual improvement in wages, especially in USD terms. However, this growth may still be modest due to the lingering effects of the war and the ongoing need to rebuild various sectors. June 2029 (06/01/29) - Economic Strengthening and Wage Growth: Scenario: Assuming continued stability and successful economic policies, Ukraine could see more robust economic growth by 2029. This period might mark the beginning of a significant improvement in living standards, with the possibility of higher foreign investments and stronger currency reserves. Impact on Salaries: Average wages in USD could see a notable increase during this period, driven by economic growth, a stronger Hryvnia, and improved employment opportunities. This would be a positive period for the Ukrainian workforce. June 2033 (06/01/33) - Potential Economic Challenges or Recession: Scenario: Around 2033, external factors such as global economic conditions, shifts in trade dynamics, or even internal political changes could introduce economic challenges for Ukraine. This might include a recession or a slowdown in economic growth. Impact on Salaries: In such a scenario, wage growth could stall or even decline. Inflationary pressures, reduced foreign investments, or economic mismanagement might erode the gains made in the previous years, leading to lower average wages in USD terms. January 2038 (01/10/38) - Long-Term Economic Outlook: Scenario: By 2038, the economic landscape could stabilize after the challenges of the early 2030s. This period might see Ukraine either recover from or adapt to the economic shifts of the previous decade. The outcome will largely depend on global economic conditions and Ukraine's integration into international markets. Impact on Salaries: Wages in USD might start to improve again, reflecting a more stable and potentially growing economy. However, the pace of this recovery would likely be slow, contingent on the broader global economy and Ukraine's ability to maintain political and economic stability. Conclusion: The UAWAG/USD chart highlights the potential for significant wage fluctuations in Ukraine over the next decade. Key events, such as the resolution of the conflict with Russia, economic rebuilding, and possible future economic challenges, will all play crucial roles in determining the average wage levels in USD. While there is potential for wage growth, particularly in the late 2020s, there are also risks associated with global economic conditions and internal political stability that could hinder this growth. As a result, Ukrainian workers and policymakers should be prepared for both opportunities and challenges as the country navigates this complex economic landscape. Ultimately, these projections underscore the importance of strategic economic planning and the need for Ukraine to build resilience against external shocks while fostering sustainable economic growth.
ECONOMICS:UAWAGLong
by trushkovskiy
USHPI / US House Price Index US House Price Index (USHPI) Analysis: The chart indicates that after a prolonged period of growth, the US housing market is approaching a critical point. The index is currently at its peak, but there are strong indications of an impending decline. Short-Term Outlook: As we approach early 2025, the chart suggests a major downturn in housing prices. The red arrow points to the anticipated decline, with the index potentially dropping to a range between 259.36 and 299.29 points. This decline reflects a significant correction in the housing market, which could be driven by various factors, including rising interest rates, reduced consumer affordability, and broader economic challenges. Mid to Long-Term Outlook: Following this decline, the chart predicts a recovery period starting around 2027, with a potential rebound in housing prices, as indicated by the green arrow. This recovery is expected to continue into the 2030s, with the market gradually regaining strength. Key Considerations: Economic Conditions: The projected downturn coincides with a period of economic instability, possibly driven by higher interest rates and a strained economy. This could result in decreased demand for housing, leading to lower prices. Market Timing: For those looking to invest in real estate, the period from 2027 onwards might present an excellent buying opportunity, as prices begin to recover from the expected lows. Long-Term Strategy: The long-term outlook suggests that the market will eventually recover, but the initial phase of the 2025 downturn could be severe, with a prolonged period of lower prices.
ECONOMICS:USHPIShort
by trushkovskiy
US HOUSING MARKET CRASHUS Real Estate Price Index Analysis: The chart illustrates a long-term upward trend in the US real estate market, with prices consistently climbing over the years. However, we are now approaching a critical phase that requires close attention. Pre-Election Period and Mid-2025 Outlook: As we move towards the upcoming elections and into mid-2025, real estate prices in the US are expected to continue their ascent. This trend will be heavily influenced by consumer purchasing power and interest rates on loans, which individuals should monitor separately. The continued growth is driven by demand, but this is likely to face significant headwinds soon. Impending Crisis in 2025: As we enter 2025, the real estate market is on the brink of a major crisis. Prices are predicted to plummet, potentially falling to an average of $380,000 per home. If prices break below this level and sustain, we could see a further drop, possibly revisiting the 2020 price levels where the average home price ranged between $280,000 and $300,000. Market Correction and Future Growth: The market is expected to correct by approximately 30%, after which it should resume its growth trajectory. This correction will be tied to the growing unaffordability of new homes for the average family, as credit interest rates rise to levels beyond the reach of many. Consequently, more people will opt to rent rather than buy, leading to an oversupply in the market as homeowners struggle to keep up with mortgage payments. With the increasing number of properties flooding the market and demand not keeping pace, the imbalance will push prices down. Additionally, global military conflicts and the policies of the Democratic Party, should they win the election again, will likely lead to a prolonged two-year recession from early 2025 to the end of 2026. Real estate will be one of the last sectors to recover from this crisis. Strategic Buying Opportunity: Given this outlook, I anticipate a market bottom by the end of 2026, making early 2027 the optimal time to purchase real estate in the US. This period should offer the best prices before the market stabilizes and begins its next growth phase.
ECONOMICS:USSFHPShort
by trushkovskiy
Macro Monday 59~Japan Interest Rate Hikes Often Lead Recessions Macro Monday 59 Japan Interest Rate Hikes Often Lead Recessions Apologies for the late release this week, I was ill yesterday and I am slowly making a recovery. This week I am keeping it brief however the chart really will speak for itself. If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit this chart at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any recessionary timeline trigger levels. They are very handy to have at a glance. The chart illustrates the Japan central banks Interest rate history and overlays the last 7 recessions. A few key patterns and findings are evident from the chart which I will summarize below. The Chart - ECONOMICS:JPINTR SUBJECT CHART ◻️ 5 of the last 7 recessions were preceded directly by Japan Interest rate hikes. - Arguably it is 6 out of 7 if you include the 1980 recession with the 1981 recession (which happened as rates were still declining from the original increase). ⌛️The average length of time from the initial hike to recession was 11.6 months. - This would be Jan/Feb 2025 based on the initiation of Japan’s rate increases in Feb/Mar 2024. If you read my material you’ll know that the date of Jan 2025 has repeatedly arisen as a concerning date on multiple charts. This does not guarantee anything other than historical time patterns on multiple charts seem to point roughly towards Jan 2025 as a month of concern. ◻️ The minimum time frame from initial hike to recession was 8 months (Oct 2024) and the maximum time frame 18 months (Aug 2025). This can be our window of concern. ◻️ Its important to note that the rates have remained elevated or increasing for longer than the above timelines outset. In this chart we are only looking at the the first rate increase to recession initiation timeline. We are doing this establish a risk time frame. In the event rates remain elevated into month 11.6 (the average timeframe) we will know we are entering dangerous territory (Jan 2025). Likewise we could go a long as 18 months which is the maximum timeframe. This is all dependent on rates remaining elevated or increasing. A reduction in rates could deter or remove the risk timelines discussed. What happens next is dependent on what the Japan Central bank does. History suggests when they start to increase rates its for a minimum of 6 - 8 months (Sept - Oct 2024), lets see if they pass these months and start to move towards Jan 2025 (the average time line from rate increase initiation to recession). This is a move into higher risk territory. I want to add last week summary as a reminder that multiple other charts are lining up to suggest we may have volatility in the coming 6 months: Macro Monday 58 Recession Charts Worth Watching What to watch for in coming weeks and months? ▫️ If both the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread and the U.S. Unemployment Rate continue in their upwards trajectory in coming weeks and months, this is a significant risk off signal and recession imminent warning. ▫️ Since 1999 the Federal reserve interest pauses have averaged at 11 months. July 2024 is the 11th month. This suggests rate cuts are imminent. ▫️ The 2 year bond yield which provides a lead on interest rate direction is suggesting that rates are set to decline in the immediate future and that the Fed might lagging in their rate cuts. Furthermore, rate cuts are anticipated in Sept 2024 by market participant's. ▫️ Finally, rate cuts should signal significant concern as most are followed immediately by recession or followed by a recession within 2 to 6 months of the initial cut. Yet the market appears to be calling out for this. This is high risk territory. Combine this with a treasury yield curve rising above the 0 level and an increasing U.S. unemployment rate and things look increasingly concerning. (for all of the above charts see last weeks Macro Monday). ____________________________________ As always you can log onto my Trading View press play on the chart to see where we are, and get an visual update immediately on if we are at min, avg or max recessionary levels. PUKA
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by PukaCharts
4
Market Stress and Bitcoin Price Reversals2008 Financial Crisis: Marked by a severe spike in the high yield spread, significant S&P 500 decline, and aggressive Fed rate cuts to stabilize the economy. COVID-19 Market Crash (2020): Triggered sharp increases in market volatility and credit spreads. The Fed's rapid rate cuts aimed to support the economy. Bitcoin also experienced notable price movements. Interest Rate Cuts: Implemented during periods of economic slowdown or financial stress, leading to narrowing credit spreads and market stabilization. SPX All-Time Highs: Peaks in the S&P 500 indicating market optimism, often followed by corrections during economic weakening. Credit Spreads Narrowing: Indicates improving economic conditions and reduced credit risk, often coinciding with market recoveries. Significant BTC Price Movements: Reflect broader market reactions and investor behavior during major financial events.
FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
by managemycrypto
Macro Monday 58 - Recession Warning Charts Worth Watching Macro Monday 58 Recession Charts Worth Watching If you follow me on Trading view, you can revisit these charts at any time and press play to get the up to date data and see if we have hit any recessionary trigger levels. They are very handy to have at a glance. CHART 1 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread vs U.S. Unemployment Rate Subject chart above Summary ▫️ The chart demonstrates how the inversion of the Yield Curve (a fall below 0 for the blue area) coincides with U.S. Unemployment Rate bottoming (green area) prior to recession onset (red areas). ▫️ The yellow box on the chart gives us timelines on how many months passed, historically, before a confirmed economic recession after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level (also see circled numbers showing connecting bottoming unemployment rate). ▫️ Using this approach, you can see that the average time frame prior to recession onset is 13 months (April 2024) and the max timeframe is 22 months (Jan 2025). ▫️ This is only a consideration based on historical data and does not guarantee a recession or a recession timeline however it significantly raises the probability of a recession, and the longer into the timeframe we are the higher that recession probability. ▫️ We typically we have a recession (red zones) either during or immediately after the yield curve moves back above the zero level. At present we are at -0.08 and fast approaching the zero level which is one of the most concerning data points of this week. ▫️ The unemployment rate moved from a low of 3.4 in April 2023 to 4.3 in July 2024. This is a significant increase and is typical prior to recession onset. Conclusion ▫️ If both the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread and the U.S. Unemployment Rate continue in their upwards trajectory in coming weeks and months, this is a significant risk off signal and recession imminent warning. ▫️ The Sahm Rule triggered this week which has been one of the most accurate indicators of a recession starting. It is triggered when the three-month moving average of the U.S Unemployment Rate above rises by 0.50 percentage points or more, relative to its low over the previous 12 months. The Sahm rule triggering adds to recession concerns, however the designer of the rule has stated that I may not be accurate factoring in recent events like COVID-19 which has thrown unemployment and economic data to extremes. What is the 10-2 year Treasury yield spread? The 10-2 year Treasury yield spread represents the difference between the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds and 2-year U.S. Treasury bonds. It’s calculated by subtracting the 2-year yield from the 10-year yield. When this spread turns negative (inverts), it’s significant because it often precedes economic downturns. An inversion suggests that investors expect lower future interest rates, which can signal concerns about economic growth and potential recession. In essence, it’s a barometer of market sentiment and interest rate expectations What is the U.S. Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate is calculated by dividing the number of unemployed people by the total labor force in the U.S (which includes both employed and unemployed individuals). CHART 2 Interest Rate Historic Timelines and impact on S&P500 Summary ▫️ This chart aims to illustrate the relationship between the Federal Reserve’s Interest rate hike policy and the S&P500’s price movements. ▫️ This is obviously pertinent factoring in the expectations of a rate cut in Sept 2024. This chart which I shared in Sept 2023 may have accurately predicted this likely Sept 2023 interest rate cut but is this positive for the market? ▫️ Interest Rate increases have resulted in positive S&P500 price action ▫️ Interest rate pauses are the first cautionary signal of potential negative S&P500 price action however 2 out of 3 pauses have resulted in positive price action. The higher the rate the higher the chance of a market decline during the pause period. ▫️ Interest rate pauses have ranged from 6 to 16 months (avg. of 11 months). ▫️ Interest rate reductions have been the major, often advanced warning signal for significant and continued market decline (red circles on chart) ▫️ Interest rates can decrease for 2 to 6 months before the market eventually capitulates. ▫️ In 2020 rates decreased for 6 months as the market continued its ascent and in 2007 rates decreased for 2 months as the market continued its ascent. This tells us that rates can go down as prices go up but that it rarely lasts with any gains completely wiped out within months. Conclusion: ▫️ Rate cuts should signal significant concern as most are followed immediately by recession or followed by a recession within 2 to 6 months of the initial cut. This is high risk territory. ▫️ During the week I seen the 2 year treasury bill which matches closely the Federal Reserve interest rate cycle. The spread developing between the two suggests rate cuts are imminent. Remember point one above. The chart below: CHART 3 Relationship between 2 Year Bonds and Interest Rate ▫️ Very briefly, you can see the red areas where gaps formed when the Federal Reserve interest rate was lagging behind the 2 year treasury bonds declines. ▫️ Currently there is a large gap of 1.74% between the two data sets. The last time we had gaps like this were prior to the 2000 and 2007 recessions. Even prior to COVID-19 you can see the Federal reserve was playing catch up. What to watch for in coming weeks and months? ▫️ If both the 10 - 2 year treasury yield spread and the U.S. Unemployment Rate continue in their upwards trajectory in coming weeks and months, this is a significant risk off signal and recession imminent warning. ▫️ Since 1999 the Federal reserve interest pauses have averaged at 11 months. July 2024 is the 11th month. This suggests rate cuts are imminent. ▫️ The 2 year bond yield which provides a lead on interest rate direction is suggesting that rates are set to decline in the immediate future and that the Fed might lagging in their rate cuts. Furthermore, rate cuts are anticipated in Sept 2024 by market participant's. ▫️ Finally, rate cuts should signal significant concern as most are followed immediately by recession or followed by a recession within 2 to 6 months of the initial cut. Yet the market appears to be calling out for this. This is high risk territory. Combine this with a treasury yield curve rising above the 0 level and an increasing U.S. unemployment rate and things look increasingly concerning. We can keep any eye on these charts for a lead on what might happen next. I will be reviewing some other charts over coming days around jobless claims and ISM figures to see how positive and negative we are looking. PUKA
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
4
Unemployment, FED Rates, SPXLooks like market bottoms just before the Unemployment peak. Market peaks just before fed starts reducing the rates. At the current situation, we have fed fund rates high and also unemployment started to climb. Will be looking at the unemployment going high and markets roll over and fed cuts rates. if FED keeps the same rate for long, something in the economy will break and they have to reduce the rate and if it happens then it's already too late. Looks like CD's and earning ~5% interest on cash is much better than risking for very limited upside in the market.
FRED:UNRATEShort
by MarathonToMoon
7