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russian rates bonds and stocksHi all! I feel the approach of good times in Russia!!💓 On the chart - at the top in black is the rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, next to it in blue - the yield rates on short-term bonds, at the bottom - the RTS. There will be a meeting of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation soon and everyone will be given the message that “the Central Bank should raise the rate by 2%.” Short debt is already trading at 18%+. How to practically apply this? The phase of raising rates always ends for stocks with a vigorous decline, a bang. The shares follow the RGBI index, so clients do not have any Russian shares. But! The main thing will begin after the Central Bank begins to reduce the rate - the stock market in currency terms can grow by 100..300% in €£$ It would be better for conservative comrades at this moment of lowering rates to withdraw money from deposits and invest in long bonds, both corporate and government. While we are in no hurry to switch to rubles and Russian shares, we need to wait - corrections - a real decrease in profitability on the Russian market (see two-year plans, ticker RU02Y) - changing the Central Bank’s narrative to lower rates.
ECONOMICS:RUINTR
by Vitaliy_Lebedev
$JPIRYY -Japan Inflation Rate YoYECONOMICS:JPIRYY (March/2024) The annual inflation rate in Japan ticked lower to 2.7% in March 2024 from February's 3-month peak of 2.8%, matching market consensus. There were slowdowns in prices of transport (2.9% vs 3.0% in February), clothes (2.0% vs 2.6%), furniture & household utensils (3.2% vs 5.1%), healthcare (1.5% vs 1.8%), communication (0.2% vs 1.4%), and culture & recreation (7.2% vs 7.3%). At the same time, inflation was stable for food (at 4.8%), housing (at 0.6%), education (at 1.3%), and miscellaneous (at 1.1%). Meanwhile, prices of fuel, and light dropped the least in a year (-1.7% vs -3.0%), with electricity (-1.0% and -2.5%) and gas (-7.1% vs -9.4%) falling at softer paces as energy subsidies from the government would fully end in May. The core inflation rate fell to 2.6% from a four-month top of 2.8%, slightly below forecasts of 2.7%. Monthly, consumer prices rose by 0.2% in March, the most since last October, after being flat in the prior two months. source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications
ECONOMICS:JPIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
$GBIRYY - CPI (YoY)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY 2.3% (April/2024) source: Office for National Statistics The annual inflation rate in the UK eased to 2.3% in April 2024, the lowest since July 2021, compared to 3.2% in March and market forecasts of 2.1%. The largest downward pressure came from falling gas (-37.5% vs -26.5% in March) and electricity (-21% vs -13%) cost, due to the lowering of the Office of Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem) energy price cap in April. At the same time, prices slowed for food (2.9%, the lowest since November 2021 vs 4%) and recreation and culture (4.4% vs 5.3%). On the other hand, the largest, partially offsetting, upward contribution came from cost of motor fuels. The average price of petrol rose by 3.3 pence per litre between March and April 2024 to stand at 148.1 pence per litre, up from 145.8 pence per litre in April 2023. Prices also rose faster for restaurants and hotels (6% vs 5.8%) and miscellaneous goods and services (3.6% vs 3.4%). Compared to the previous month, the CPI rose 0.3%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
Shelter Inflation. The Tail That Wags The DogInflation is finally cooling off as inflation gradually loosened its grip on Wall Street and the economy in 2023, raising hopes for a gentler Federal Reserve and further gains for the market in 2024. Stocks rallied to their best 9-weeks stripe over the past 20 years in November and December, 2023 (so-called 'Santa Rally') as investors raised their bets that the Fed is done hiking interest rates to fight inflation. 6Mo USCPI Inflation was at its lowest levels since Covid-19 pandemic in early 2023 Top 4 U.S. stock market Indices were in rally in 2023 The economy has cooled under the weight of rising interest rates, as the central bank intended, but remains surprisingly resilient. Energy prices are down. Food prices are mellowing out. But the cost of having a place to live is still rising much faster than just about every other essential. U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation Headline inflation was up 3.1% from a year ago, and so-called "core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was up 4%. But the cost of shelter, which is the biggest component of the basket of goods the BLS uses to measure the cost of living, was up 6.5%. "The shelter index was the largest factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less food and energy," read the Bureau of Labor Statistics report accompanying the latest data on consumer prices. "The shelter index increased 6.5 percent over the last year, accounting for nearly 70 percent of the total increase." When the covid-19 pandemic hit, the cost of housing surged as those who could afford it sought out bigger homes and many city-dwellers transitioned to the suburbs. What goes into Consumer Price Index That and a glut of savings unhindered by low interest rates combined to exacerbate what had been a long-simmering Housing crisis the U.S. But now that baked-in price hikes and rising mortgage rates spurred by tightened Federal Reserve monetary policy have put a bit of a damper on things, the housing market is also starting to cool. U.S. Single Family Home Prices in "Bubble Mode" 30Yrs Fixed Mortgage Rate is at 20Yrs Highs. 30Yrs Mortgage Annual Payment U.S. Single Family Home, only Interest. Housing prices tend to be “much stickier” than most costs, which means that when they rise we feel it more - and for longer (read - "for ever"). Housing prices do not compressed like just baked iPhone or iMac later in few years of its release. - Does all af that mean that pre-covid levels of relative housing affordability are coming back? - Sure "No". But at least American wages, which are still rising faster than before the pandemic thanks to increased worker power, will have a little chance to make up some lost ground. The issue is still Federal Reserve' lagged tightening policy, that is "The Tail That Wags The Dog".
FRED:CUSR0000SAH1
by Pandorra
10/2 Inverted Yield StrategyThe inverted Yield is basically 6/6 as an indicator of an oncoming recession. At initial inversion the stock market sees initial growth as rates go higher. It isn't until on average 16-19 months that a recession occurs after initial inversion. www.putnam.com A study by Bloomberg tracked performance of the S&P 500 against the 2 and 10 year US treasury inverted yield curve and found that the best time to sell equities in the stock market was when the inverted yield begins rising again and is at the -0.15 level. The best time to get back into the market and restart your DCA is when the inverted yield rose above the 2.15 level. This period typically takes 660-700 days to occur. www.bloomberg.com On April 1, 2022 the 2/10 yield curve inverted. As of today we are at 19 months. Today October 20th, 2023 the inverted yield curve turned up at -0.15. The vertical red lines are selling of equities at -0.15 and the green line indicated repurchasing of equities at the 2.15 line for the last two recessions. *This is not financial advice. Invest at your own risk and do your own due diligence.
FRED:T10Y2YShort
by EasyZabbo
2
Trump / Rates / Dollars / Coins, OH MY!Interest Rates and the Dollar Interest rates, set by central banks, are a critical component of monetary policy. The Federal Reserve (Fed) in the United States uses interest rates to control inflation and stabilize the economy. When the Fed raises interest rates, it becomes more expensive to borrow money, which tends to slow down economic activity and reduce inflation. Conversely, lowering interest rates makes borrowing cheaper, encouraging spending and investment, which can stimulate economic growth. Impact on the Dollar: Higher Interest Rates : When interest rates rise, the yield on U.S. government bonds and other fixed-income securities increases, attracting foreign investment. This inflow of capital strengthens the U.S. dollar as investors buy dollars to purchase these higher-yielding assets. Lower Interest Rates: Conversely, when interest rates are lowered, the yield on these investments drops, making them less attractive. This can lead to capital outflows and a weaker dollar as investors seek better returns elsewhere. Interest Rates and Cryptocurrency Impact on Cryptocurrencies Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are often seen as alternative assets. Their relationship with interest rates can be complex: Rising Interest Rates: Higher interest rates can negatively impact cryptocurrencies. As safer, yield-bearing investments become more attractive, investors might shift their funds from speculative assets like cryptocurrencies to bonds and savings accounts. Falling Interest Rates: Lower interest rates can make traditional investments less attractive, potentially driving more investment into riskier assets like cryptocurrencies in search of higher returns. The Importance of Policy Decisions Independent of Political Agendas Central Bank Independence: The independence of central banks from political influence is crucial for maintaining economic stability. When monetary policy decisions are driven by economic data rather than political agendas, it helps ensure that actions taken by central banks are aimed at achieving long-term economic goals such as controlling inflation and maintaining employment levels. Transparency and Credibility: Independent central banks are more likely to make transparent and credible policy decisions, which can build market confidence. Economic Stability: Policymaking that is insulated from short-term political pressures helps avoid economic instability that might arise from politically motivated decisions. Recent News: Assassination Attempt on Donald Trump and Its Impact on BTC Markets Recent News: There was an assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump, which has created significant political and market turbulence. Impact on BTC Markets: Market Reaction: Such high-profile political events can lead to increased uncertainty and volatility in financial markets. Bitcoin, often seen as a hedge against political and economic instability, may experience increased buying interest as investors seek to protect their wealth. Price Movements: Following the news of the assassination attempt, Bitcoin's price saw notable fluctuations as traders reacted to the heightened political risk. Conclusion Interest rates play a pivotal role in influencing the value of the U.S. dollar and cryptocurrencies. Central bank decisions on interest rates, when made independently of political agendas, contribute to economic stability and investor confidence. Recent political events, such as the assassination attempt on Donald Trump, highlight the sensitivity of markets, including cryptocurrencies, to geopolitical developments. Understanding these dynamics is essential for investors navigating the complex financial landscape.
ECONOMICS:USINTREducation
by moneymagnateash
2
UNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOKUNEMPLOYMENT / FED FUNDS RATE - PLAY BOOK This post I intend to explore with you the cyclic relationship we can observer between: 1) US Unemployment Rate (BLUE), 2) 21D SMA (Orange) based in unemployment data, and 3) Resultant Recessions (Gray Bars) Historically, the general play book / sequence of events suggest once we break the 21 Day SMA (orange line), it is the start of unemployment unwinding and we lead into a recession. As the 'FED FUNDs RATE' is the artificial tool used to 'Guide' the credit market (politically correct explination), the obvious question then is; "What is the relationship / behavior of interest rates historically with this trend? Are we experiencing similar behaviour to the last 30 - 40 years?" The Red line show the FED funds rate on the chart. The below sequence of events show how these variable play with each other: The story goes: the FED increases the 'FED FUNDS RATE' (aka interest rates) because low periods of interest rates is resulting in a 'HOT' economy and causing inflation (i.e. market forces the FEDs hand to raise interest rates as the return for lending money to credit markets does not match the current risks). At some point during interest rate rises: 1) FED rise in interest rates is held constant (the lagging effect of higher rates start to hit the economy resulting in slowing down economic activity - i.e. spending) 2) Record low unemployment starts to rise (Cross of 21D SMA historically has signaled a point of no return) 3) Fed start to drop rates due to employment increase, deflationary market disruption 4) Unemployment begins to rapidly increase 5) Recession WHERE ARE WE NOW? According to this play book, we are in currently in step 2 and approaching point 3 . If you find this post interesting, you may find my discussion around the 2 Year Treasury Bond Yield vs FED Funds Rate interesting. This relationship is what I was using to speculate interest rate rises before they happened, and that they would be higher than people were expecting when there was talk of rates rising... The Market in all cases will eventually win...
FRED:UNEMPLOY
by Brodie
1
Macro View Shows 2-4 Month Max And Then It Starts!Traders, Some rather ominous signs are showing in various markets not least of which includes the U.S. housing market. As you know, we have been periodically tracking the USHMI as a key leading indicator to show us where and when our coming U.S. (perhaps global) recession begins. We are close if we have not already begun, but I imagine there will be no ability for denial in about 2-4 months time. Before then, markets may continue to blow off and I still expect Bitcoin to hit our 85k target. Today we'll review our USHMI chart along with other key charts for further clues mapping future trajectory.
ECONOMICS:USHMIShort
by stewdamus
$USIRYY -CPI# *M print (post AA+)- Awaiting CPI# numbers readings for ECONOMICS:USIRYY on August 10th (today) post US being Down-Graded to AA +. While on the 9th of August ECONOMICS:CNIRYY came deflationary on the other side of the world Consensus sits at 3.1% (0.1% increase) and some to 0.3% increase at 3.3% for ECONOMICS:USIRYY Economists forecast Inflation rising up again on a steady pace for the rest of 2023 and the entering of 2024 for coming down YoY from 9.1% to 3% On the last ECONOMICS:USINTR Rate Hike Decisions following a Month of Breath, our pal, Jerome Powell stated during his speech regarding Fed's seeing inflation coming up on months to come not being total uder control. This was aswell one of many reasons they didn't felt confident to stop the Rate Hiking . He aswell stated that Federal Reserve does not see Inflation coming down to their Target Norm of 2% CPI by 2025, and they fimrly prompt a 'Soft Landing'. How about another joke, Powell ! It's not about Money , its about sending a Message . Everything Burn ... TRADE SAFE *** Note that this is not Financial Advice Please do your own research and consult your own financial advisor before partaking on any trading activity based solely on this idea.
ECONOMICS:USIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
5
How California Boomers Screwed Gen ZThe Golden State once glittered with the promise of the American Dream, a paradise where surf meets turf and everyone could afford a slice of heaven. But thanks to the Boomer generation, those dreams have been bulldozed and replaced with vacation homes for the wealthy and overpriced rental units. Gen Z, you might as well start saving your pennies for rent instead of a mortgage. The same folks who wax nostalgic about the good old days when they bought homes for a song have now orchestrated an epic housing crisis, ensuring that California’s golden dream stays just that – a dream. Welcome to the Golden State, where a once prosperous and burgeoning society has fallen victim to institutional decay and a shrinking middle class, courtesy of our dear Boomers who mastered the art of NIMBYism and speculative real estate. Every generation’s moral narrative is a cover story for their greatest theft. What does this moral narrative look like for California Boomers? Well it’s superficial environmental sustainability under a facade of social progressivism. And the theft? Now that would be the Boomers stealing the opportunity and success of future generations. CEQA, California's Environmental Quality Act, was supposed to protect nature, but Boomers turned it into a weapon to block new housing. By crying "environmental concerns," they've stalled countless developments, preserving their scenic views while future generations are priced out of homeownership. It’s a classic Boomer move: using a green facade to guard their golden nest eggs, all while younger Californians scramble for overpriced rentals. Thanks for the "environmentalism," Boomers—we'll be enjoying it from our 300SF apartment that cost $4,000 a month.
FRED:MEHOINUSCAA646N
by defrog_god
75: China Export Analysis - Fundamental and Technical OverviewThe European Union (EU) and the United States have increased scrutiny and imposed higher tariffs on Chinese imports, particularly electric vehicles and strategic materials like gallium and germanium. These measures are designed to protect domestic industries from what are perceived as unfair trade practices and subsidies by the Chinese government. Additionally, the EU's new Critical Raw Material Act and battery regulations aim to reduce dependency on Chinese imports and secure supply chains for critical technologies. These regulatory changes have led to a noticeable decline in Chinese exports to the EU. In response, China has imposed export restrictions on key materials, further straining trade relations. These geopolitical tensions and trade barriers have significantly impacted China's export figures. Currently, China's export trend is showing a downward trajectory. The export figures have struggled to reach the $350 billion mark and are at risk of dropping significantly lower, potentially towards the $140 billion level. Chart Overview: Trend Line: A clear downtrend is visible on the chart, with lower highs and lower lows indicating sustained pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: Resistance: The $350 billion level is the upcoming resistance. That has not yet been reached. Support: Immediate support is observed around $250 billion. A break below this level could accelerate the downward move towards $140 billion. Will We Reach $350 Billion or Go Lower? Given the current economic and geopolitical landscape, it seems still likely that China will reach the $350 billion export mark in the near term because there has not been a really corrective wave in the chart. But the downward pressure from increased tariffs, export restrictions, and the EU's push for supply chain independence are significant hurdles. If these conditions persist, a further decline is a plausible scenario.
ECONOMICS:CNEXP
by SeventyFive-Invest
July Economic Calendar - IMPORTANT EventsIt’s going to be a busy month for the Chair of the Fed (Jerome Powell), who delivers a speech today and then will testify later this month in front of Congress to provide updates on monetary policy decisions. Will we gain clarity on the timing of potential rate cuts this year, and if they are even being considered? Crypto in June - How BTC responds June saw significant volatility across the crypto market. Bitcoin fluctuated between price highs above $70,000 and lows of around $60,000, with substantial movement around 4 June when Bitcoin peaked above $71,000, before declining on 6 June and continuing a downward trend and falling to levels last seen in May. ETH and altcoins followed along, with Ethereum down approximately 11% in June . Pulling it back to the US markets, some analysts argue that the fluctuations was largely driven by uncertainty surrounding inflation data. The drop to $60k could likely be due to the reducing likelihood of multiple interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve Bank this year, contrary to earlier investor anticipations (causing hesitation and a cautious approach). Upcoming Events that could Affect Markets: ❗ Tuesday, 2 July 📢 Jerome Powell speech Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will provide an economic overview today, outlining current monetary policies. He will answers questions and the outcome of this speech can significantly impact financial markets and investor sentiment. ❗Wednesday, 3 July 📢 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) The upcoming FOMC minutes are expected to provide more details on the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, and its revised economic projections. Key points could include the reasons behind the more hawkish stance on rate cuts, and the implications of updated forecasts for unemployment and inflation. ❗Friday, 5 July📢 US Unemployment Rate The US unemployment rate is a key indicator of economic health, influencing consumer spending, corporate profits and the social sentiment. During May the US jobs sector added 272,000 jobs, further casting doubt on the rate cuts in the US this year. ❗Tuesday, 9 July 📢 Fed Chair Powell testimony Jerome Powell is set to discuss the state of the economy, monetary policy decisions, and also outline future policy intentions in his twice-a-year testimony in front of Congress. ❗Thursday, 11 July 📢 US Inflation Figures The year-on-year and month-on-month inflation numbers provide crucial insights into purchasing power trends, influencing market expectations for interest rates and the overall economic outlook. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed 0.2% in May, the smallest advance in core CPI since October 2023. Take extra caution when over the next few weeks as volatility will be likely depending on the outcome of these events. _______________________ ECONOMICS:USINTR FRED:UNRATE ECONOMICS:USIRYY
FRED:SP500
by CryptoCheck-