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$JPINTR -Japan's Interest Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:JPINTR 3.6% (December/2024) source: Ministry of Internal Affairs & Communications - The annual inflation rate in Japan jumped to 3.6% in December 2024 from 2.9% in the prior month, marking the highest reading since January 2023. Food prices rose at the steepest pace in a year (6.4% vs 4.8% in November), with fresh vegetables and fresh food contributing the most to the upturn. Further, electricity prices (18.7% vs 9.9%) and gas cost (5.6% vs 3.5%) increased at the fastest rate in four months with the absence of energy subsidies since May. Additional upward pressure also came from housing (0.8% vs 0.9%), clothing (2.9% vs 2.6%), transport (1.1% vs 0.9%), furniture and household utensils (3.0% vs 3.7%), healthcare (1.7% vs 1.6%), recreation (4.0% vs 4.5%), and miscellaneous items (1.1% vs 1.1%). In contrast, prices continued to fall for communication (-2.1% vs -3.0%) and education (-1.0% vs -1.0%). The core inflation rate rose to a 16-month high of 3.0%, up from 2.7% in November and matching consensus. Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.6%, the highest figure in 14 months.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by Mr_J__fx
US DEBT Outpacing Private Credit 2 to 1Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few while socializing those liabilities onto the backs of the many. The many will not realize this is happening until it is too late. The few will sell their bonds, take their money, and move it overseas, collapsing the currency's value, and leaving the many to pay for the debt with taxation, austerity and inflation. (even hyperinflation) The more Gov borrows to deficit spends the more it has to deficit the closer we get to the point of no return. That's what this chart is showing you. The direction we are heading.
FRED:TOTBKCRLong
by RealMacro
Need to Show You Something...... every time the Bank of Japan raised interest rates the indexes have taken a fall ...in video I show every BOJ rate hike since the early 2000's along with indexes at the durations ... there are three spots: ... 2000-2001 ... 2006-2010 ... 2024-Present ... BOJ recently upped their interest rate from 0.25 to 0.50 Lets see what happens this year. Also remember that bonds have recently entered a 20-30 year cycle. Certain industries will thrive here.
ECONOMICS:JPINTR
by NebulousMercuria
Business sentiment turning up which is usually bullish Since the 70's, a significant improvement in the US business sentiment, as measured by the US NFIB Business Optimism Index, usually translated in a higher S&P500 in the following months and year. The only exception being 2021 when the pandemic put a halt to the rise in the stock market (but did recovered quickly). I used a cross of the 12-month rate of change above 6%. The most recent datas is showing the best improvement in business sentiment since the early 80's. This bodes well for a continuation of the bull market in the coming months.
ECONOMICS:USBOILong
by waverity
$GBIRYY -U.K Inflation Rate (December/2024)ECONOMICS:GBIRYY December/2024 source: Office for National Statistics -Annual inflation rate in the UK unexpectedly edged lower to 2.5% in December 2024 from 2.6% in November, below forecasts of 2.6%. However, it matched the BoE's forecast from early November. Prices slowed for restaurants and hotels (3.4%, the lowest since July 2021 vs 4%), mainly due to a 1.9% fall in prices of hotels. Inflation also slowed for recreation and communication (3.4% vs 3.6%) and services (4.4%, the lowest since March 2022 vs 5) and steadied for food and non-alcoholic beverages (at 2%). Meanwhile, prices decreased less for transport (-0.6% vs -0.9%) as upward effects from motor fuels and second-hand cars (1%) partially offset a downward effect from air fare (-26%). Also, prices rose slightly more for housing and utilities (3.1% vs 3%). Compared to November, the CPI rose 0.3%, above 0.1% in the previous period but below forecasts of 0.4%. The annual core inflation rate also declined to 3.2% from 3.5% and the monthly rate went up to 0.3%, below forecasts of 0.5%.
ECONOMICS:GBIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
CPI forecastThe CPI represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. User fees (such as water and sewer service) and sales and excise taxes paid by the consumer are also included. Income taxes and investment items (like stocks, bonds, and life insurance) are not included. Prices for the goods and services used to calculate the CPI are collected in 75 urban areas throughout the country and from about 23,000 retail and service establishments. Data on rents are collected from about 50,000 landlords or tenants. The weight for an item is derived from reported expenditures on that item as estimated by the Consumer Expenditure Survey. The stochastic indicator is pointing to an increase in inflation over the next few months. However, that doesn't necessarily predict an immediate increase in inflation this month.
ECONOMICS:USCCPI
by Options360
Willshire5000 - the extended Buffett indicator - SPX 6084How to read the Char. In the main pan, there we find the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by global Gross Domestic. As you know, the Buffett indicator is built by the ratio built by Willshire5000 divided by GDP USA. Meantime, together with the strong globalization, various experts thinking, that US companies make a lot of there revenues in foreign countries. And GDP US contains this not exactly. Example: an big company is contained in the willshire5000 as a price, but runrover etc. Is contained in a other country. Whatever: the extended Buffett Indicator is for sure and in a relatively sight in the amount better than the US GDP to measure a relative economic performance. Very impressive: This indicator shows only two times an extreme irrational Exuberation, as marked in the chart below and the marked losses in SPX. 100% for sure: we are very close to a third irrational exuberation. Big big troubles in US Market ahead. Dan, 12. dec. 24
FRED:WILL5000PRShort
by Flyerdan
Bearish Divergence on Indonesia Population Data: A Brief OpinionA bearish divergence was detected on Indonesia's population chart using MACD and RSI indicators. Typically used in financial markets to predict trend reversals, applying these tools to population data may not be relevant. Bearish divergence happens when data shows higher highs, but indicators show lower highs, hinting at weakening momentum. While this could suggest slowing population growth, such interpretation needs caution. This observation is purely experimental and not a reliable demographic insight. Proper demographic studies using statistical models are essential to derive accurate conclusions. This article reflects an opinion and highlights the need for further research. TradingView offers a wide variety of data and charting tools. This analysis is just an entry point to explore other insights on the platform. However, a deeper understanding and thorough research are necessary to draw meaningful conclusions. Please note that this analysis is not meant to be taken seriously as a demographic forecast. It is simply an unusual observation using technical indicators in a non-financial context. Apologies if this perspective seems unconventional or causes any misunderstanding. No offense is intended, and it is shared purely for educational and exploratory purposes.
ECONOMICS:IDPOP
by rahmadsaleh86
S&P 500 trends and market speculation for 2025As 2025 gets into full swing, traders are navigating a landscape shaped by two years of extraordinary stock market performance. The S&P 500 has delivered back-to-back annual gains exceeding 20% in 2023 and 2024, but analysts are signaling a more tempered outlook for the year ahead. With economic indicators, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical developments in focus, investors are keenly watching for potential trends and reversals. S&P 500: Riding the momentum The S&P 500 ended 2024 with an impressive annual gain of approximately 23%, following a 24% increase in 2023. This marks the first occurrence of consecutive gains above 20% since the late 1990s. The rally was fueled by robust economic growth, cooling inflation, and a series of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Additionally, enthusiasm surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's pro-business agenda further bolstered investor sentiment. However, as we enter a new year, the market is showing signs of caution. December saw a pullback in equities, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average posting its worst monthly performance in over two years. The S&P 500 also registered its largest monthly loss since April 2024. This correction reflects profit-taking by investors and concerns about the Federal Reserve's revised stance on interest rate cuts.
FRED:SP500
by Exness_Official
Understanding Reverse Repo Agreements: The Q1 Liquidity DanceUnderstanding RRPONTSYD: The Quarterly Liquidity Dance and Its Impact on Markets The term RRPONTSYD, which stands for "Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements: Treasury Securities Sold by the Federal Reserve," might sound complex, but it's pivotal in understanding financial market behaviors, especially at the end of each quarter. Here’s an exploration of this mechanism, why it spikes, and what it means for liquidity and the stock market. RRPONTSYD is essentially a tool used by the Federal Reserve where it sells securities to banks or financial institutions with the agreement to buy them back the next day. This process acts like a secured overnight loan from the banks to the Fed, designed to manage the money supply in the economy. Its purpose is twofold: to control short-term interest rates by offering a safe place for excess cash and to absorb excess liquidity from the system which could otherwise lead to inflation or push rates below the Fed's target. Every quarter, RRPONTSYD tends to spike due to a combination of tax payments and financial reporting. Large sums are moved to the Treasury General Account for tax obligations, significantly reducing the cash available in banks. Additionally, banks engage in what's known as "window dressing," adjusting their balance sheets to look more robust for quarterly reports by using reverse repos to manage their liquidity or leverage ratios. This spike represents a temporary parking of cash at the Fed, often for earning a small return or to manage financial obligations. The behavior of RRPONTSYD after this spike can have significant implications for markets: If these agreements remain high after a spike, it signals that liquidity is being withheld from circulation. This can lead to higher borrowing costs and less capital available for investment or consumption, potentially resulting in a bearish outlook in the stock market as investors might see this as an indication of a tighter monetary policy or reduced market liquidity. Conversely, a sharp drop in RRPONTSYD after a spike suggests that the cash is re-entering the financial system. This influx of liquidity can lower short-term rates, making borrowing cheaper and encouraging investment. The stock market often reacts positively to this scenario, viewing it as a bullish sign since there's more capital available for stocks, potentially driving up equity prices. Understanding the dynamics of RRPONTSYD offers a window into how monetary policy, liquidity, and market performance are interconnected. Whether these agreements spike and then fall or remain elevated can serve as an indicator for market conditions. However, investors should always interpret these signals within the broader context of economic indicators, Federal Reserve policies, and global financial trends. To conclude, today represents a significant point as the markets open for Q1 2025 as the vast majority were closed through New Years Day. Bullish investors want to see an IMMEDIATE drop in these rates with the most bullish scenario dropping below the 100 billion dollar mark by early next week. A significant drop is the LIKELY scenario as this scenario playing out indicates a high probability of upside continuation for the markets
FRED:RRPONTSYDLong
by TrendmasterOfficial
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