Review and plan for 3rd July 2025 Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
Swing ideas.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT
AMZN Short Market Structure Analysis
Break of Structure (BOS)
A bullish run culminated in a BOS to the upside, which typically signals a short-term bullish intent. However, this move acts as a liquidity grab, sweeping buy-side liquidity above the prior high.
Liquidity Sweep & Rejection
Price taps into the higher time frame sell zone, indicated by the shaded red region. The wick into this zone triggers stop-losses from breakout buyers and activates institutional selling interest, leading to a swift rejection.
Inducement & Trap Zones
Several trap zones are clearly mapped out on the descent:
These green areas represent engineered liquidity pockets where buy-side participants are induced to enter prematurely.
As price retraces into these zones, retail traders anticipate reversals, but these retracements serve only to fuel the continuation of the bearish leg.
Lower Liquidity Target (XXX zone)
The chart ultimately projects a move toward the equal lows marked near the $207 level—an area rich in sell-side liquidity. The consistent failure to break lower previously forms a pool of resting liquidity that smart money seeks to exploit.
Liquidity Engineering
The green dots on prior highs mark liquidity collection points—zones where retail buyers are most active.
The higher time frame red zone provides confluence for distribution and is a classic example of liquidity injection followed by reversal.
The step-by-step sell-off shows clear liquidity traps, where short-term demand is absorbed, reinforcing the bearish continuation.
Risk Management Considerations
Stop Placement: Must be placed above liquidity sweep highs and not within internal trap zones to avoid being manipulated out of the trade.
Scaling In: Given the presence of multiple trap zones, one could consider scaling in as price confirms rejection from each zone.
Targeting: A conservative target would be the liquidity void near $207; aggressive traders might look beyond if the structure accelerates.
NFLX: pullback is an opportunity for bulls into its earning.Buy an At-the-Money (ATM) Call with an expiration at least 60-90 days out to give the trade time to work. For an entry around $1,280, you could buy the $1,280 strike call.
Sell an Out-of-the-Money (OTM) Call with the same expiration to reduce your cost, for instance, the $1,340 strike call.
Price Target: The initial profit target is a retest of the high near $1,340, where the spread would reach its maximum value.
Stop Loss Level: A decisive daily close below the current support shelf at $1,240 would signal that this pullback is something more sinister. We would exit gracefully and preserve our capital.
“Accumulation, Breakout, Repeat: SBSW’s Time Again?” SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis
4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind
This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle:
🔹 2015–2016
🔹 2019–2021
🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026
Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats.
🧠 Smart Money Moves
Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again.
📊 Technical Breakdown
This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low.
✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher.
📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting.
🎯 Key Areas of Interest:
• $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R
• $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot
• $14.90 – Confluence zone
These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal.
🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand
Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues.
Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave.
🧠 My Position
Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation.
(Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.)
🕰️ Cycles matter.
📚 History teaches.
💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout.
This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in.
—
📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm.
SBSW | Weekly Chart Analysis
4-Year Cycle | Smart Money Levels | Precious Metals Macro Tailwind
This chart paints a clear picture — Sibanye-Stillwater (SBSW) has followed a reliable 4-year accumulation-to-expansion cycle:
🔹 2015–2016
🔹 2019–2021
🔹 Now shaping up for 2025–2026
Each rally kicked off after institutional accumulation around the $3 level, and once again, we’re seeing the same behavior. History doesn’t just rhyme — it repeats.
🧠 Smart Money Moves
Every major cycle began after price based out near the $3 level. That’s exactly what we’ve just seen — accumulation, basing, and now lift-off. We’ve entered a familiar pattern — the same smart money footprints showing up again.
📊 Technical Breakdown
This is the weekly chart, and we’re now testing the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level (7.39) drawn from the 2020 high to the recent low.
✅ A weekly close above this level + structure building could confirm the beginning of a long-term leg higher.
📈 Volume Flow Indicator has crossed above the midline for the first time in years, suggesting that real buying pressure is back. That’s a shift in momentum worth noting.
🎯 Key Areas of Interest:
• $10.00 – Volume node + prior S/R
• $12.00 – Fib midpoint + prior pivot
• $14.90 – Confluence zone
These are zones where I’ll be watching for continuation, reaction, or reversal.
🌎 Macro Tailwind: Precious Metals Demand
Platinum and palladium are gaining renewed attention as demand increases in EVs, clean energy, and industrial sectors. SBSW — with its deep exposure to both metals — is positioned as a long-term beneficiary if this trend continues.
Add to that the recent global instability and de-dollarization chatter, and you’ve got a macro backdrop favoring real assets over paper. Precious metals are catching a bid — and SBSW could ride that wave.
🧠 My Position
Started buying $4.00 calls and recently rolled to $5.50s. I’m letting this one develop over time — watching for confirmation and continuation.
(Not financial advice — just sharing my perspective as always.)
🕰️ Cycles matter.
📚 History teaches.
💰 Smart money accumulates before the breakout.
This setup has all the hallmarks of a repeat cycle in progress. I’m locked in.
📍 Long-term chartwork, weekly timeframe. Zoom out to see the rhythm.
🛑 Invalidation below $5.50 — no structure, no conviction, I’m out.
If SBSW breaks back below the $5.50 level with high volume and fails to reclaim it quickly, that would invalidate the current breakout structure and suggest this move was a false start. I'd reassess the cycle thesis if we revisit the $4 range with no buyer defense.
Please feel free to comment and let me your opinion
Mega bull trend starts now, CLSKIn short:
1) Goldencross soon to be triggered.
2) too see how the stock could perform (with accumulated, low 200dma), we can look in 2023. It peaked in mid July. After explosive rally in november.
3) 13$ levels is the 50% fibonacci..
4) 1st Elliot wave - people are skeptical. 2nd - woohoo. 3rd wave - fomo.
//Advancing in relative strength (CLSK/SPX).
//Small cap ( AMEX:IWM ) outperformance due to rate cut cycle (starts in September). Evidence is yesterday broadening rally.
//52WH is at november 18$. Expect a gamma squeeze?
position based on probabilities. I never make targets (future is unknown).
🥂
Analysis on circle using tpo and regular chart longs and shortMust watch video giving 2 really nice Risk reward entries on the Newley listed stock Circle
In this video I highlight a region using limited data of where to get filled if you missed the IPO and want to buy some circle .
We are currently in a no trade zone for buyers as I anticipate that price will gravitate down to the .786/.886 level over time .
In this video I also use the TPO chart "Time price opportunity" and demonstrate what i am looking for from using this type of chart to add to my confluences for a high probability trade .
Also identified in the chart is a short trade off of the weekly pivots and the value area high of the range .
Thankyou for watching and i welcome any questions
(MSTR) – Cup & Handle Brewing Inside a Rising Wedge?MSTR is currently trading around $384, consolidating just under a significant historical resistance near $432, the neckline of a potential cup and handle formation. Price action has respected a rising wedge channel since mid-April, making higher highs and higher lows with relatively muted volume – a classic consolidation before a breakout... or breakdown.
The Cup and Handle – Brewing or Breaking?
Cup Formation: The cup ranges from the November 2023 high down to the January 2024 lows and back up, completing the round base at ~$432.
Handle Formation: Price has been forming a descending handle within the rising wedge, staying above key moving averages.
Breakout Target (Cup & Handle):
Cup depth: ~$432 - ~$290 = $142
If confirmed breakout occurs above $432, measured move takes us to ~$574
Bullish Validation:
Close above $432 on strong volume confirms breakout.
Look for volume spike + strong Heikin Ashi candles with little/no wicks below body.
Momentum indicators (MACD crossover + RSI breaking 60+) would further confirm.
Bearish Breakdown Scenario:
A confirmed breakdown below $360 (channel support + BB midline) would shift momentum bearish.
$352 (100 EMA) is the next critical level — if this goes, the structure weakens significantly.
Watch for a test of $332, which aligns with both Bollinger Band support and a horizontal demand zone.
A full breakdown of the channel and cup handle structure could see price revisiting the base of the cup near $290–292, where the 233 SMA and major historical support converge.
Indicators:
MACD: Bullish crossover forming, histogram slightly positive. Needs stronger momentum to sustain rally.
RSI: Neutral zone (~52). Not overbought or oversold – room to move in either direction.
Volume: Volume is decreasing, typical before a big move. A spike will hint at direction.
Final Thoughts
MSTR is at a pivotal technical crossroads. The broader setup shows a cup and handle formation in progress, with the handle unfolding inside a well-defined ascending channel — a bullish structure that supports continuation if price holds key levels.
To confirm the cup and handle, bulls need to see a clean breakout and close above $432, preferably on increased volume. That would validate the pattern and open up a measured move target toward $574+.
Meanwhile, the ascending channel remains intact, guiding price higher with higher lows and highs. To maintain this structure, MSTR must hold support above $360–352. A sustained bounce off this zone would reinforce both the channel and the handle as part of the bullish setup.
However, if price breaks below $352 and especially closes below $332, it would invalidate the ascending channel and begin to threaten the cup’s base structure. A breakdown toward $290–292 would likely follow, where the entire pattern would need to be reassessed.
Until a breakout above $432 or a breakdown below $352–332 is confirmed, this remains a neutral “watch zone”. Swing traders should be cautious, but keep alerts set, a move in either direction could be powerful and directional.
DESTINI-WB - May follow its mother share ?DESTINI-WB - CURRENT PRICE : RM0.090
This warrant is an illiquid and a bit difficult to trade. However recently alot of trading activity takes place as we can see in the volume bar. This is due to its mother share DESTINI (7212) broke out from its accumulation phase on 12 JUNE 2025. At the same time, it also makes a NEW 52 WEEK HIGH. The company's fundamental is improving. Traders may take this opportunity to buy the company's warrant as it is so cheap and have potential of following its mother share. Furthermore, the expiry dates is on 06 MARCH 2029.
ENTRY PRICE : RM0.085 - RM0.100
TARGET : RM0.120 (33.33%) and RM0.150 (66.67%)
SUPPORT : RM0.070 (-22.22%)
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) – Global Growth & Monetization TailwindsCompany Snapshot:
Reddit NYSE:RDDT is a community-centric social media platform, uniquely positioned through user-generated content and authentic engagement. With over 100,000 active communities, Reddit is a magnet for targeted brand advertising and premium ad formats.
Key Catalysts:
AI-Driven International Expansion 🌐
Launched AI-powered post translation in 35+ countries, including Brazil, Germany, and Italy.
This unlocks new audiences and ad monetization in high-growth global markets.
High Margin Business Model 💸
Reported a 90.5% gross margin—highlighting Reddit’s asset-light infrastructure and operational efficiency.
Sets the stage for significant operating leverage as revenue scales.
Ad Revenue Acceleration 📊
Brands increasingly view Reddit as a premium ad environment, given its contextual targeting and deep user engagement.
Expanding tools for advertisers (e.g., Dynamic Product Ads) may enhance monetization per user.
Investment Outlook:
Bullish Entry Zone: Above $120.00–$122.00
Upside Target: $190.00–$195.00, supported by global reach, margin strength, and ad revenue tailwinds.
🧠 Reddit isn’t just a social platform—it’s a monetizable network of influence, fueled by community trust and scalable technology.
#Reddit #RDDT #SocialMediaStocks #AIExpansion #GrossMargin #AdTech #CommunityEngagement #TechStocks #Bullish #DigitalAds #UserGeneratedContent #GlobalGrowth #FreeCashFlow #GrowthStocks
Samsara’s IoT Surge: A Fleet Management Play with Space to GrowSamsara NYSE:IOT , a trailblazer in the Internet of Things (IoT) for fleet management, has been turning heads since its 2021 IPO. With a market cap hovering around $17 billion and its stock quadrupling since debut, the company is riding high on analyst optimism. But beyond the hype, what’s driving Samsara’s ascent-and what risks lie ahead?
From Startup to IPO Star: Samsara’s Journey
Founded in 2015 by Sanjit Biswas and John Bicket-veterans of the tech world who sold their previous startup, Meraki, to Cisco-Samsara hit the ground running. By 2018, it was a unicorn valued at $1 billion, and in 2021, it raised $805 million in a high-profile IPO, catapulting its valuation to $11.5 billion. Fast forward to today, Samsara's shares rose sharply if we compare it to its IPO price, demonstrating and reinforcing investor confidence in its growth.
The Business: IoT Meets Fleet Management
At its core, Samsara offers cloud-based platforms that help logistics and transportation companies optimize operations. Using a mix of cameras, GPS, and AI-powered sensors, its solutions provide real-time insights into vehicle location, driver behavior, and asset tracking. In 2019, the company introduced AI-driven dashcams to monitor driver safety, and by 2021, its subscription revenue topped $300 million with 20,000 customers.
Samsara got a lot of innovations, but what is the latest one? Bluetooth tags for tracking smaller assets, expanding its reach beyond vehicles to parcels and inventory. With annual recurring revenue (ARR) hitting $1.1 billion in 2024 and growing 35% year-over-year, the company’s momentum is undeniable.
Financial Status: Growth with a Profitability Horizon
Samsara’s financials paint a picture of rapid expansion. In Q3 2025, revenue jumped 36% to $322 million, while ARR climbed to $1.349 billion. Gross margins sit at a healthy 73%, and free cash flow is positive—a rarity for high-growth tech firms. Customer growth is equally impressive: the number of large clients (those spending over $100,000 annually) rose 30% in 2024.
Nevertheless, we should note that Samsara remains unprofitable, with net losses narrowing but still present. The company is laser-focused on scaling, reinvesting heavily in R&D and customer acquisition. Analysts expect it to reach breakeven soon, but the timeline still remains a wildcard.
Market Opportunity: A $100 Billion TAM Beckons
Samsara’s addressable market is vast. The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for fleet management and logistics IoT is estimated at $50 billion, with Samsara capturing just 1% of it. Expand that to adjacent sectors-manufacturing, industrial operations-and the TAM balloons to $100 billion. With a market share of only 1%, the runway for growth is immense.
The company’s leadership in its niche is clear, though rivals like Geotab (10% market share) and Verizon Connect NYSE:VZ loom large. Samsara’s edge? A relentless focus on innovation, as seen in its AI-powered Samsara Intelligence platform and partnerships with heavyweights like DHL and Tyson Foods.
Risks to Watch
High-growth tech isn’t without pitfalls. Samsara faces stiff competition in a crowded field, and its reliance on rapid scaling leaves little room for error. Regulatory hurdles, especially around data privacy, could also emerge as IoT adoption spreads. Plus, the company’s unprofitability-while shrinking-remains a concern for risk-averse investors.
A Growth Story with Legs
At $39 per share, Samsara trades below its all-time high, but analysts see plenty of upside. Wells Fargo and Piper Sandler peg its target at $54-$55, with a consensus forecast of $49.50. Samsara NYSE:IOT offers a compelling blend of innovation, market leadership, and a massive TAM. But it’s not a slam dunk-competition and profitability hurdles loom. Still, for those betting on the IoT revolution, Samsara’s growth engine looks hard to ignore.
META Shares Signal Major Reversal Risk Amid Potential 2B Top PatThe shares of META, the NASDAQ-listed owner of Facebook, recently reached overbought levels as the stock price rose above its upper Bollinger Band and its Relative Strength Index climbed above 70. This suggests that META is likely to enter a period of sideways consolidation or perhaps experience a sharp decline.
However, traders should also pay close attention to a potentially larger reversal pattern known as a 2B top, which may currently be forming.
A 2B top is similar to a double top pattern, but typically the second high slightly exceeds the prior high before reversing. In this case, the high on 30 June 2025 exceeded the previous high set on 14 February 2025. The stock then fell sharply on 1 July, and if it continues to decline below support at $700, this would confirm the 2B topping reversal pattern.
Additionally, a break below support at $700 would signal the end of the uptrend that began on 1 May and also push the price below the 10-day exponential moving average, further confirming a trend reversal.
A decline below $700 could see the shares fall significantly, potentially erasing much of the gains recorded following the US-China trade negotiations held in Switzerland on May 12.
Notably, a price gap exists at $593, created by the announcement following those talks.
Alternatively, if the stock holds support at $700 and continues the uptrend, the 2b top is invalidated, and traders should look for even higher prices from this AI giant. The nice thing about the 2b topping pattern is that it provides an easy-to-identify invalidation price, which in this case would be above $748.
Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management.
Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed.
No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
Safe Entry Place ATAINote: Watch with 1h TF for better details.
Stock Current Movement Up.
Due to recent good news.
P.High Lines (Previous High) Consider as Strong Support.
Also My Beloved CAthie Wood BEST INVESTOR All Time (based on statics better than Warren Buffet Entire Histroy) Is BUYING!
Note: 1- Potentional of Strong Buying Zone:
We have two scenarios must happen at The Mentioned Zone:
Scenarios One: strong buying volume with reversal Candle.
Scenarios Two: Fake Break-Out of The Buying Zone.
Both indicate buyers stepping in strongly. NEVER Join in unless one showed up.
2- How to Buy Stock:
On 15M TF when Marubozu Candle show up which indicate strong buyers stepping-in.
Buy on 0.5 Fibo Level of the Marubozu Candle, because price will always and always re-test the
Note: ATAI represents a compelling high-risk, high-reward opportunity.
BGSF Inc. Breaking OutBGSF is a staffing company that has been in this descending parallel channel for the last 2 years and is getting ready to finally break the down trend. Last quarter they beat earnings by over 100% adding fuel to the breakout. It sports a Zacks #1 rank, not sure where this could go, only that it looks to be done moving down.
Hudbay Minerals setting new 10-year highsThis Minerals company just broke above a resistance level that goes back over 10 years, all the way to April 2015. With all the excitement going around about Gold, Silver and Mineral mining companies lately, this looks like a great opportunity to buy a mining company that looks to be breaking out much higher in the coming years. Watch for HBM to break higher and then come down and test this long-term orange trendline as support before going higher.
Yes AAPL has been trash. Yes AAPL will short term pumpThere is no world in which you can look at this aapl/spy chart and not identify that this isn't a GREAT risk/reward entry. You're telling me AAPL won't at least retest the 200 DMA this year?? You're telling me it's not worth it for a leap long as it's sitting at range lows??
Easiest money play I've seen in a minute.
CLSKThe stock shows upside potential (~40% to Target2) with strong support at $10-$11, but low volume and near-term volatility require caution. Optimal strategy: Enter near support levels, enforce strict stop loss, and track confirmation signals for bullish momentum.
Entry Zone: $10 - $11 (optimal buying area).
Stop Loss: $8.40 (critical level, mentioned twice).
Targets:
Target1: $14.09 - $14.31 (~17-19% upside from entry).
Target2: $15.34 - $16.19 (~40-45% upside from entry)
Estee Lauder | EL | Long at $67.33Reentering Estee Lauder at $67.33 due to the persistence of the Director, Paul Fribourg, buying around $33,000,000 worth of shares between $63-$66 (even after the earnings debacle). While the company had a horrendous outlook for FY2025, the bad news may be already priced in (i.e. cutting 7,000 jobs, weak sales, etc.). A "profit recovery and growth plan" is underway, so buckle up for the high risk of further declines in stock price in the near-term. Personally, a buy and hold at $67.33 with the primary thesis being global expansion (recovering Chinese market) or potential buyout into 2027.
Targets
$80.00
$86.00
Lulu Long15-Minute Chart: Head and Shoulders Pattern
A head and shoulders pattern has formed on the 15-minute chart, signaling a potential reversal from a short-term downtrend, suggesting bullish momentum may be building.
Daily Chart: Hammer Candlestick & RSI Oversold
The daily chart shows a hammer candlestick pattern, indicating strong buying pressure at lower levels. Additionally, the RSI is in oversold territory, reinforcing the likelihood of a near-term rebound. These factors suggest a favorable setup for a long position in LULU.
Trade Recommendation
Consider initiating a long position in LULU based on the bullish signals across multiple timeframes.
Entry:231
Stop Loss (SL): Set at $226 (aligned with August 2024 resistance) or $219 (low of the hammer candlestick) for tighter risk management.
Take Profit 1 (TP1): Target $250–$252, corresponding to the 200-period EMA on the 1-hour and 4-hour charts, a likely resistance zone.(a 1:4 risk and reward ratio)
Take Profit 2 (TP2): Target $334, aiming to fill the gap from the last earnings report, with potential upside if tariff concerns ease.
Rationale
The combination of a reversal pattern on the 15-minute chart, a bullish hammer on the daily chart, and an oversold RSI supports a bullish outlook. Risk-reward ratios are attractive with defined stop-loss levels and realistic profit targets, contingent on market conditions and macroeconomic factors like tariff developments.