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PGR (Long) (Weekly Income)Asset Class: Stocks Income Type: Weekly Symbol: PGR Trade Type: Long Trends: Short Term: Down Long Term: Up Set-Up Parameters: Entry: 246.66 (Confirmation Entry) Stop: 234.70 TP 282.53 (3:1) Trade idea: A price pin into a daily demand zone , Buying the breakout on the 1H TF as the price pullback and the SL at the distal line of the DZ (Conservative) . The trade setup also use the Elliot wave analysis, where the price is likely to form wave 5 next. The setup has a 3:1 RRR with a potential for 4:1. The RSI is oversold on the 4H , showing divergence, and heading up. !!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry. Trade management: -Split the TP to 3 orders at each TP -when price hits 1:1 , consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. So your trade is risk free. -After TP2 hit, you might consider canceling the TP3 and trail the SL to maximize your profit. **Disclaimer**: The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
NYSE:PGRLong
by MESHANL
1
The pearl of the aviation/defense industry: Dassault AviationOverview In this report, we analyze an undervalued and lesser-known stock in the aerospace and defense sector. While many investors focus on established giants like Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin, this gem offers a compelling opportunity due to its unique market positioning, low valuation relative to peers, and multiple growth drivers. The geopolitical climate, recovering business jet demand, and strategic stakes in adjacent industries create a favorable investment case. Key Investment Highlights 1. Market Position and Peer Comparison: o The company is undervalued compared to its peer group. Despite operating in the high-demand aerospace and defense sector, it trades at a lower Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA multiple and offers a lower next-12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio than major competitors like Boeing. o Strategic stakes in other companies, such as a substantial 25.85% holding in Thales SA, significantly contribute to its intrinsic value, while also benefiting from cross-sector synergies. 2. Product Line and Market Potential: o The company manufactures both military and business aircraft, including the Rafale series of combat jets and the Falcon business jet series. The business jet market, which operates as a near-oligopoly, includes only a few competitors like Gulfstream and Bombardier, creating a strong market niche. o Business jets and their related service revenues account for 25% of the company's income. This sector's high margins and steady demand from affluent customers, largely resilient to economic cycles, provide additional stability to the revenue base. 3. Global Geopolitical Tailwinds: o The ongoing increase in military budgets worldwide, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and China, will likely lead to long-term, robust demand for defense equipment. o Many NATO countries, particularly in Europe, are increasing their military spending to meet target levels, offering an anticipated tailwind for this company’s defense segment. 4. Business Jet Market Recovery: o Since the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for business jets has rebounded, with significant growth potential in Asia. The company recently launched the Falcon 6X and Falcon 10X business jet models, addressing the aging fleet in the market, with an average fleet age of 18 years. o Increasing wealth in Asia, with hundreds of new millionaires emerging daily, suggests a positive growth outlook for luxury and business jet demand. 5. Stable Revenue from Services and Maintenance: o The aerospace sector typically experiences steady income from maintenance services, essential for keeping aircraft operational. The demand for private jet maintenance remains high, even during economic downturns, especially among high-net-worth individuals. o This focus on service revenue translates into predictable free cash flow, a record-high order book, and strong long-term visibility. Financial and Valuation Analysis • Valuation Metrics: The company trades at approximately 9.2 times the P/E ratio and 4 times EBITDA, considerably lower than the broader peer group average. This valuation reflects a significant discount, particularly given the company’s promising outlook and high industry relevance. • Ownership and Management: The company’s majority ownership by a prominent French family (Dassault Family), holding 66.11% of shares (Groupe Industriel Marcel Dassault), indicates a potential alignment with shareholder interests, bolstering stability and strategic direction. • Stock Buybacks: The company has consistently executed share buybacks, repurchasing over 20% of outstanding shares since 2015 at favorable valuations, further enhancing shareholder value. Long-Term Growth Catalysts 1. Military Budget Increases: Rising global defense budgets due to heightened geopolitical risks create a favorable environment for sustained defense spending. 2. Wealth Growth in Asia: Rapid economic growth in Asia supports a steady increase in demand for business jets, reinforcing the company’s prospects in this niche. 3. New Product Launches: The introduction of the Falcon 6X and 10X models targets the luxury business jet market, where the replacement cycle and market demand are aligned for growth. Ethical Considerations This investment opportunity, while financially compelling, is situated in the defense sector. Investors should consider their stance on ethical investing, as a portion of the company’s revenue is derived from military products. Conclusion The stock represents a strong value opportunity within the aerospace and defense sector, bolstered by its underappreciated valuation, diverse revenue streams, and high-growth market segments. With long-term tailwinds in place, this company has the potential to deliver attractive returns as it continues to capitalize on both military and business aviation demand. It’s important to keep in mind that if Trump wins and manages to ease the current political tensions (though it’s uncertain if he will), this stock may become less appealing. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
EURONEXT:AMLong
by marc_kober
Deere & Company (John Deere) Agro AI stockCompany Overview John Deere, traditionally known as a manufacturer of agricultural and construction machinery, has evolved into a high-tech corporation with a focus on artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. The company’s innovations cater to the agricultural sector's rising demands and are increasingly seen as a strategic AI play, rather than merely a manufacturer. Key Innovations and Technologies • AI and Automation Integration: John Deere has integrated sensors, GPS, and data analytics into its machinery, enhancing productivity and reducing the workload for farmers. • Autonomous Machinery: Acquisitions like Flag Robotics enable Deere to produce self-driving tractors, enhancing efficiency on expansive farmland. • Sea & Spray Technology: This automated weed-control system uses AI to differentiate crops from weeds, improving precision in pesticide application and reducing environmental impact. Financial Model and Market Position John Deere generates revenue from sales and through a growing subscription-based model, particularly with products like Sea & Spray, expected to yield $700 million by 2030. The company’s revenue is split, with 60% from North America and a substantial 40% from international markets, notably Europe and Latin America. Investment Potential • Cyclical Nature: Deere’s earnings have historically fluctuated with agricultural cycles, but rising investment in technology and recurring revenue sources could mitigate this. • Valuation and Growth: Currently, Deere’s P/E ratio places it in a fair valuation range. Its transformation toward AI-driven agritech positions it to outperform the market long-term, potentially yielding annual returns of 10–15%. John Deere is a promising long-term investment with strong fundamentals in both technology and agriculture. Its cyclical nature may impact short-term performance, but the AI and automation focus make Deere an attractive pick for investors looking at sustained growth in the agricultural sector. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
NYSE:DELong
by marc_kober
Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (Offshore Energy)Company Overview Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (Helix Energy) is a Houston-based offshore services company specializing in a broad range of solutions for the energy industry, specifically in the oil, gas, and renewable sectors. Helix is known for its unique role in offshore well decommissioning and subsea intervention, as well as for providing robotics and engineering support for underwater infrastructure projects. Unlike traditional energy companies focused on drilling, Helix operates as a service provider that supports the entire lifecycle of offshore operations. Industry Context The energy sector has seen a significant shift towards offshore production as onshore reserves have become increasingly depleted. While land-based oil fields have been central to the industry for decades, many easily accessible sites are now exhausted, prompting a move to more challenging offshore locations. Offshore drilling is now at the forefront of exploration, with prominent areas of activity concentrated off the coasts of Brazil, Norway, the UK, and Australia. Given these changes, there is a growing demand for companies that specialize in supporting offshore production. Helix has positioned itself to capture this opportunity through a combination of specialized services that include subsea well intervention, decommissioning, and underwater robotics. These services are critical to both traditional oil and gas projects and the expanding offshore renewable energy industry, such as wind farm installations. Financial Strength and Operational Stability Helix has shown impressive financial resilience, particularly compared to other companies in the energy sector. While many service providers faced bankruptcy in recent downturns (notably during the COVID-19 pandemic and the oil price collapse of 2020), Helix was able to navigate these challenges due to its conservative balance sheet and prudent management. • Financial Strategy: Helix maintains low debt levels with long-term liabilities not maturing until the end of the decade. This strategic approach allows the company to operate without the pressure of immediate debt payments, providing it with flexibility to invest in strategic growth and acquisitions. • Experienced Leadership: Helix’s CEO, who has been with the company for over 26 years and is a substantial shareholder, has played a key role in steering the company through industry volatility. His tenure and stake in the company ensure an alignment of interests with shareholders and a focus on long-term stability. • Revenue Generation: With a focus on services billed at daily rates, Helix benefits from high revenue predictability. The company’s contracts are increasingly structured with longer durations, providing further stability. These predictable income streams give Helix an advantage over competitors whose earnings are more closely tied to fluctuating oil prices. Growth Strategy and Market Valuation Helix has leveraged its strong financial position to capitalize on emerging market opportunities. As offshore production grows, Helix’s expertise in well intervention and subsea support becomes increasingly valuable. Its focus on acquiring smaller, struggling competitors has allowed the company to expand its capabilities without contributing to market oversupply, ensuring its own fleet remains strategically sized and financially viable. Despite these strengths, Helix remains conservatively valued by the market. It trades at a multiple of approximately six times its projected free cash flow for the next year. This low valuation, combined with the company’s financial health, positions Helix as a potentially undervalued investment with substantial upside as the offshore services sector continues to expand. Future Outlook Helix is well-positioned to benefit from industry trends favoring offshore production and renewable energy projects. The company’s diversified service offerings, conservative financial structure, and stable leadership provide a foundation for growth in a cyclical market. In addition, recent reports from Bloomberg suggest that Helix might consider a sale, which could further unlock shareholder value. While speculative, this development adds an additional layer of opportunity for investors seeking exposure to the offshore service sector. Conclusion Helix Energy stands out in the offshore services market due to its comprehensive service offering, strong financial management, and experienced leadership. Its ability to navigate industry cycles without taking on excessive debt underscores its operational resilience. With the global trend toward offshore production and renewable energy projects, Helix is positioned to benefit from increasing demand for its services. Given its low market valuation and potential for expansion, Helix represents a promising investment in the evolving offshore energy landscape. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
NYSE:HLXLong
by marc_kober
Vista Energy (Vaca Muerta Formation; Argentina)Company Overview Vista Energy is an independent oil and gas company with a significant focus on Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale field, a resource-rich region often compared to the Permian Basin in the United States. Though formally a Mexican company, Vista operates primarily in Argentina, with a unique strategy focused on low-cost production and steady, profitable growth. Vista’s management team, composed of former executives from Argentina’s state-owned YPF, has successfully steered the company towards profitability while avoiding the bureaucratic constraints often seen in national oil companies. Vaca Muerta Field and Strategic Advantage The Vaca Muerta formation is considered the second most valuable shale oil and gas field globally, after the Permian. Comparable in size to Belgium, Vaca Muerta has enormous potential for resource extraction and has become a focal point for Argentina’s economic strategy. With production costs averaging around $30 per barrel, Vista has a solid margin of safety that enables profitability even during periods of lower oil prices. Vista’s management team leverages its deep understanding of both Argentina’s regulatory environment and shale production techniques, allowing the company to execute projects with greater efficiency. This unique advantage positions Vista to capitalize on Vaca Muerta’s reserves while maintaining financial discipline. The company has also begun exporting oil to neighboring countries like Chile, adding a valuable revenue stream and positioning itself as a key regional energy provider. Financial Performance and Management Approach Vista is financially stable, with a clean balance sheet and a conservative capital allocation strategy. The company’s approach to project management has been particularly effective; Vista regularly exceeds its production forecasts while remaining conservative in its spending. • Capital Efficiency: Vista’s management has demonstrated a commitment to maximizing capital efficiency by focusing on high-margin projects and conservative spending. Production costs are kept low, and the company maintains strong profit margins, even as it grows. • Ownership and Alignment: The CEO holds a significant equity stake in the company, aligning his interests with shareholders and ensuring a focus on long-term value creation rather than short-term gains. • Growth Potential: Vista is valued at approximately $4 billion, with a significant opportunity for growth. Over 80% of its production is in oil, an attractive feature given the stability of oil prices relative to gas. As global demand increases, Vista is well-positioned to capture market share and further solidify its presence in Argentina and neighboring regions. Risks and Political Considerations While Vista operates in Argentina, which has historically faced political and economic volatility, recent political developments have added a layer of optimism. The country’s newly elected, business-friendly government is expected to prioritize resource development and may encourage foreign investment by maintaining a stable economic environment. However, any shift towards protectionism or heavy government intervention could present risks. The company’s success is partly contingent on Argentina’s openness to foreign investments and its willingness to allow companies like Vista to export their production. Long-Term Value Proposition Vista’s long-term potential is grounded in several key factors: • Growth in Production and Exports: With its focus on the Vaca Muerta field and continued expansion of export capabilities, Vista is poised to benefit from increased production and access to international markets. • Undervalued Position: Despite its strong financial performance, Vista remains relatively under-followed in investment circles, providing an opportunity for investors looking for exposure to the energy sector at an attractive valuation. • Conservative Management: Vista’s management team has demonstrated a consistent focus on efficiency and shareholder value, setting it apart from other regional players with higher debt levels and less stable operations. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
NYSE:VISTLong
by marc_kober
Hidden Beverage Stock: Dr Pepper Snapple Group Long-term Investment Potential: • Beverage stocks are typically strong for long-term investment strategies. • Relatively Crisis-resistant, with a steady increase in profits. • Offer solid dividends. Revenue Breakdown (Approximate values): • 35% of revenue comes from coffee. • 65% of revenue comes from the beverage business (e.g., sodas, soft drinks). Brands: • Major brands include Dr Pepper, Schweppes, 7up, etc. Geographical Focus: • Primarily active in the USA, with 87.5% of revenue generated from the U.S. • The U.S. is one of the most competitive and consumer-friendly markets. Financial Metrics (2018-2023): KDP (left) and beverage peers (right) • Net Sales CAGR: 6% / Beverage Peers: 7% • Earnings Per Share (EPS) CAGR: 11% / Beverage Peers: 4% • Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 64% cumulative over the period / Beverage Peers: 36% • Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 15x / Beverage Peers: 21x Other indicators: Piotroski F-Score: 7, indicating relatively strong financial health. • Fair Value: The stock appears undervalued, with potential to rise to $41-$43 over the next months/years. • GF Value Rank: 85/100. • Caution: There is concern it could be a value trap despite positive valuation indicators. Market Share: • Dr Pepper market share: 9%. • Diet Dr Pepper market share: 3%. • For comparison, Fanta holds a 3% market share. Stock Performance: • Performance 2024 around 10%+. • Insider confidence is high, with a significant number of insider buys since 2023. Personal Opinion • I think the stock is undervalued, with a potential price increase to $41-$43 in the next months or year. Personally, I now hold a small position in my portfolio, but my strategy on this stock is long term hold. • P/E ratio of 15x suggests the stock is relatively affordable compared to peers. • There are, however, warnings of a potential value trap, where the stock may underperform despite appearing cheap. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
NASDAQ:KDPLong
by marc_kober
CEG Long (Stop Limit)Asset Class: Stocks Income Type: Daily Symbol: CEG Trade Type: Long Trends: Short Term: Down Long Term: Up Set-Up Parameters: Entry: 237.90 (at the Breakout) Stop: 223.79 TP 223.79 (3:1) Trade idea: A price pin into a daily Fair Value Gap , Buying the Stop as the price pullback and the SL at the last swing low. The trade setup also use the Elliot wave analysis, where the price is likely to form wave 5 next. The setup has a 3:1 RRR. The RSI is oversold on the 4H , and heading up. !!Be aware of pending Economic Reports. If price is within 20 pips of proximal value at time of major impact report, then Confirmation entry. Trade management: -Split the TP to 3 orders at each TP -when price hits 1:1 , consider moving stop to entry in case of pullback. So your trade is risk free. -After TP2 hit, you might consider canceling the TP3 and trail the SL to maximize your profit. **Disclaimer**: The trading strategies, ideas, and information shared are for educational and informational purposes only. They do not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, currencies, or financial instruments. You should do your own research or consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions. The author assumes no responsibility for any losses incurred from following these trading ideas.
NASDAQ:CEGLong
by MESHANL
Ticker: $MSTR Pinbar daily close NASDAQ:MSTR A potential pinbar candle is forming on the daily chart, which could signal a bullish reversal. A pinbar candle is a strong indicator of potential price direction change, often showing that buyers have regained control after a period of selling pressure. However, a pinbar candle alone may lack significance if it forms in a neutral area of the chart with little trading context. In this case, the pinbar has formed at a strong support level, which previously acted as resistance. This alignment with a key level enhances the pinbar’s strength as a reversal signal. Support and resistance levels are crucial for analyzing price action, as they often act as zones where buying or selling pressure increases. When a pinbar appears at such a significant level, it suggests that bulls are stepping in to defend this area, increasing the likelihood of an upward movement. If the pinbar closes above or near the support level, it could confirm a solid buy signal, particularly if other indicators align. BTC is also holding a similar strong support level - let’s see if the bulls can retake the wheel!
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by coilemard
Long $TSLAI am getting 100% of my exposure currently through NASDAQ:TSLL , I am very bullish on this setup for Tesla. Bull catalysts: Trump Victory - if this happens, I assume TSLA will pump just because of their close relationship Federal EV Charging Re-compete - in the vein above, I don't see why Trump wouldn't open the failed federal funds of ~ SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:9B to companies to recompute the contract- obviously Tesla could actually deliver the network of chargers more efficiently than GM et al. QE - I overlaid the FFR on the bottom of this chart, since I think it is valuable information regarding the last time TSLA's face-melting rally began, it coincided with QE beginning. Their humanoid robots also could be something, but I am not as versed with them. Any other catalysts I'm missing?
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by httpz
Finer Market Points: ASX Top 10 Momentum Stocks: 5 Nov 2024GETTEX:AZ9 ASX:YRL AMEX:OVT PSX:POL LSE:TMG GETTEX:TYP ASX:LRV AMEX:SPD GETTEX:LIS ASX:OAU Momentum leading shares are the market's best performers today. They are the fastest-growing shares on the ASX over the last 90 days. These companies can't get to be leaders without first appearing on our Launch Pad list. The Launch Pad List is shared on Thursdays and the video interview published after market close on Fridays. Today's ASX's Top 10 Quarterly Momentum Stocks are: Asian Battery Metals PLC (AZ9) Yandal Resources Limited (YRL) Name not found (OVT) Polymetals Resources Ltd (POL) Trigg Minerals Limited (TMG) Name not found (TYP) Larvotto Resources Limited (LRV) Southern Palladium Limited (SPD) Li-S Energy Limited (LIS) Ora Gold Limited (OAU)
ASX:YRL
by ch886
Groupon long position/swing trade idea - $NASDAQ:GRPNNASDAQ:GRPN may be a long from here. It put in a monthly indecision candle last month, along with a relative volume per range signal, after sweeping below a pivot near an area of interest. Also swept under prior weekly low and reversed, heading back toward prior week high. I've started a tiny feeler position today looking for a potential weekly breakout and run up toward the highs around 19-20 and beyond, perhaps even starting a long run back up to the IPO price. I will tighten and add more if it takes out the weekly high. Normally in this distribution I would only look for a long if it first dropped to $7.5, and it may still do that or continue lower, but the monthly relvol signal made me want to make an attempt at this one from here. Monthly and quarterly relvol signals tend to lead to the best trends.
NASDAQ:GRPNLong
by easycators
SMCIIt seems you are referring to a strong investment opportunity in the stock SMCI in the American market, with a potential rise ranging from 40% to 70%. The technical analysis you mentioned, such as the downward channel and the clear divergence on the MACD indicator, can suggest a possible trend reversal."The decision now depends on whether you are an investor or a trader. I see that the $24.5 level is excellent for investors as it aligns with the 200-day moving average on weakly frame, targeting a 100% profit At least with a 20% stop loss. However, if you are a trader, we might wait for a price action signal around $33, aiming for $44."
NASDAQ:SMCILong
by IbrahimTarek