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Berkshire Hathaway | No More Apple Pie & Bank Bread!No More Apple Pie and Bank Bread | Buffett’s Recipe for Market Caution Berkshire Hathaway has recently disclosed its earnings amid fluctuating around a $1 trillion valuation. A notable update is its continued reduction of stakes in overvalued assets, including a 20% decrease in holdings of Apple and Bank of America, boosting its cash reserves to $325 billion Although Warren Buffett himself isn't favoring share buybacks at present, Berkshire Hathaway stands as a compelling investment option Why Berkshire Hathaway's $325 Billion Cash Pile Signals Market Caution The company's net earnings remain subject to significant fluctuations due to rules requiring valuation changes of investment holdings. However, there was a slight decline in operating earnings, mainly driven by lower insurance underwriting income. Despite this, that segment is historically volatile, and year over year aka YoY, the company has maintained strong performance. Yea2date aka YTD, operating earnings have risen over 10%, totaling just under $33 billion compared to just below $29 billion last year. This points to an annualized earnings estimate of approximately $44 billion, implying a price2earnings aka P/E ratio of about 22, without factoring in over $320 billion in cash and significant investment holdings. Excluding cash and investments, the adjusted P/E ratio is closer to single digits. Share buybacks have paused, reflected in a ~1% decrease in the outstanding shares YoY, signaling Berkshire's assessment of current market valuations. Segment Highlights The various business units within Berkshire Hathaway showcase its robust asset base and earning capacity. Insurance underwriting income saw a sharp YoY drop, but other business areas performed strongly. Income from insurance investments remained solid, and BNSF, its railroad subsidiary, also showed strong results despite a double digit YoY decline. Berkshire Hathaway Energy continues its growth, cementing its position in the utility sector with significant renewable energy ventures. For context, NextEra Energy (NEE), with a market capitalization of $160 billion, posted quarterly earnings around 10% higher. Berkshire's other controlled and non-controlled businesses contribute over $13 billion annually, underpinning its diversification and consistent earnings performance. This strength across segments underscores its formidable financial health. Market Context Currently, market valuations are elevated by historical standards. Excluding periods of earnings dips, market enthusiasm is exceptionally high, with the S&P 500 P/E ratio nearing 30x, approaching levels last seen in 1999. Buffett and Berkshire appear to view a 3% yield from such a P/E as unattractive, especially when bonds offer higher returns. The 2008 Playbook Berkshire's track record of effectively utilizing its cash reserves is notable. Excluding its insurance float, the company still holds $150 billion in cash. During the 2008 financial crisis, Berkshire leveraged its liquidity for strategic investments in companies like General Electric, Swiss Re, Dow Chemical, and Bank of America, as well as finalizing the full acquisition of BNSF in 2010. This proactive use of capital proved advantageous. The current strategic sale of assets suggests Berkshire is preparing for potential market downturns. Given high S&P 500 valuations, reallocating part of an S&P 500 position into Berkshire Hathaway could be wise, ensuring exposure to a cash-rich portfolio capable of seizing future opportunities. Meanwhile, Berkshire’s earnings are valued lower than the broader market, potentially minimizing major downturn risks. Investment Risks A key risk is that timing the market is inherently challenging, with the adage "time in the market beats timing the market" serving as a caution. If Berkshire's market outlook is incorrect, its $300+ billion in cash could underperform while broader markets remain strong, which would diminish its appeal as an investment. Final Thoughts Berkshire Hathaway has taken the bold step of liquidating some of its most significant and priciest holdings, opting to incur capital gains taxes to increase liquidity. This move has bolstered its cash position to $325 billion, $150 billion above its float level. Meanwhile, its strong operational businesses continue generating healthy cash flow. Drawing on its successful strategies during the 2008 crisis, Berkshire appears to be positioning itself for another downturn amid current high market valuations. We advise investors to consider shifting part of their S&P 500 exposure into Berkshire Hathaway for enhanced diversification and potential benefits in a market correction, long story short Berkshire Hathaway remains a robust investment opportunity but wont make millionaire! What do you think moonypto fam?
NYSE:BRK.A
by moonypto
Chennai Petroleum's Sharp Drop Hits All Targets in 15m TradeAnalysis: Chennai Petroleum (CHENNPETRO) displayed strong bearish momentum on the 15-minute chart using Risological Swing Trader , leading to a successful short trade where all targets have been achieved. Trade Summary: Entry Level: 912.85 Target Levels: TP1: 859.65 ✅ TP2: 773.50 ✅ TP3: 687.35 ✅ TP4: 634.10 ✅ Stop Loss: 955.95 Key Points: Consistent Downtrend: The stock has followed a consistent downtrend, highlighted by the descending red moving average, indicating continued selling pressure. Sector Impact: The broader energy sector may also be experiencing pressure, impacting stocks like Chennai Petroleum. Recent economic shifts could be contributing to the bearish outlook. Conclusion: The Chennai Petroleum short trade has successfully reached all marked targets. This movement reinforces the bearish sentiment in the stock, offering potential opportunities for traders monitoring short positions.
NSE:CHENNPETROShort
by ProfitsNinja
2
11/4/24 - $inta - Pass at $50, R/R unclear11/4/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:INTA Pass at $50, R/R unclear - nothing i'd fade, growing flexing gross profit vs opex - also tech B2B have put up good reactions to results all else equal so far this 3Q - but stonk has gone from low 30s where I punted last Q to ~almost~ doubling. obvioulsy i traded out of this and recycled capital etc. etc. not surprised it kept riding, but so high? a bit surprised. - don't love fact that stock comp remains high amt of "FCF" though again for stonks that go up, it's less an issue. nonetheless, it's still not real cash earned IMVVHO - also adjusting for this SBC, PE of near 80x next year and 60x the following remains high. - i'd rather watch this pitch go by - a lot of names reporting (and i mean A LOT) this week in perhaps one of the funkiest risk weeks (team blueberry vs. team raspberry gonna have a jam fest). see no reason to punt at these levels, that's all. - gl to all. V
NASDAQ:INTA
by VROCKSTAR
Long REKRProbability Calculation for REKR Reaching $2 Estimated Probability: 75-80% Breakdown of Contributing Factors: 1. Technical Analysis Indicators (35-40%) Support Levels: The stock is currently trading near a significant support zone that has held in the past, increasing the likelihood of a bounce or upward movement. RSI Divergence: The presence of a bullish RSI divergence suggests weakening selling momentum and a potential for trend reversal. Trendline Resistance: If the stock breaks above the current downtrend line, it could signal a bullish shift and make $2 a realistic target. 2. Historical Price Movements and Patterns (20-25%) Past Rebounds: Historical data shows that REKR has managed to bounce back from similar technical setups, supporting the probability of an upward move. Price Action: Recent movements indicate that the stock is capable of achieving significant price increases under favorable conditions. 3. Fundamental and Market Information (20-25%) Revenue Growth: The expected 54.2% year-over-year increase in revenue to $14.06 million indicates strong business expansion. Insider Confidence: Insider buying activity and significant contracts secured by Rekor support a positive outlook and suggest insider confidence in the company’s future. 4. Short Interest Data (15-20%) High Short Interest: The current short interest of 15.95 million shares, or 18.02% of outstanding shares, signals significant bearish sentiment but also provides potential for a short squeeze. Days to Cover: With a short interest ratio of 17.8 days, any positive news or upward momentum could lead to a short squeeze, rapidly increasing the stock price as short sellers rush to cover their positions. Increase in Short Interest: The 8.28% increase in short interest over the past month indicates rising skepticism but also raises the potential for a sudden upward movement if market sentiment shifts. Combined Probability Assessment: Technical Analysis and Historical Patterns contribute a solid base estimate of 55-65% probability for reaching $2. Fundamental Strengths, including revenue growth and insider buying, support an additional 20-25%. Short Interest and Potential for a Short Squeeze add 15-20%, reflecting the possibility of a rapid upward move due to short-covering dynamics. Final Estimate: By combining these factors, the overall estimated probability for REKR reaching $2 is 75-80%. This reflects the strong potential based on technical signals, underlying business strengths, and the possibility of a short squeeze, balanced with the risks inherent in the current bearish sentiment and market conditions.
NASDAQ:REKRLong
by TraderShifu
INDIGOPNTS NSE RBC BO SWINGINDIGOPNTS STOCK Analysis TRADE PLAN ENTRY -1525 50% Qty, Add 50% qty 1605 DTF Close SL -1450 TARGET --01-1688 , TGT02--1726 Hold For a 3M or TGT 2 Chart Pattern : STOCK is near to forming a 1Y2M RBC INDICATORS EMA : The Price is Currently Trading above 50EMA, and 20EMa below 50EMA in DTF. STOCK EMAs are currently in alignment where today an 4.8%+ price rise with Volumes indicating start of a bullish Trend on DTF/WTF. FIBO/E : Currently the price is below 23.6% FIBO Retracement Level, Early Entry can be take as per your risk ability. Safe Traders Enter above 1525. Volumes: The volumes currently are not very exciting though above the 20VMA on lower Time Frame Keep in your Priority Watch List Disclaimer: For Education/Reference Purpose Only, Trade at your Own Risk with correct position sizing and SL based on your Risk appetite (Exit when price closes 7to8% below your Entry) and re enter when trend reverses... Trail Your SL progressively. Learn/Know and Review the Stock trading Technical Terminology. Check Verify the Financial fundamentals of the Stock and Seek Advice from a Certified Financial Advisor prior to Investing. Prefer Entry with 25% quantity, Add in Tranches of 25%-50% as prices moves upwards recommended. MTFA- Multiple Time Frame Analysis DTF -Daily Time Frame WTF-Weekly Time Frame MTF- Monthly Time Frame ATH-All Time High LTH -LifeTime High RBC&H-Rounding Bottom Cup/Handle BO- Breakout Close EMA -Exponential Moving Average FIBO R/E -Trend based Fibonacci Retracement/Extension SL Stop Loss TBD- To be Decided CHoCH- Change of Character Bullish/Bearish MSB/BOS -Break Out Structure FVG Fair Value Gap 20VMA -20Volume Moving Average SWING/POSITIONAL Trade
NSE:INDIGOPNTSLong
by billpramod
2
ORIENTAL AROMATICS LTD The global Camphor market size was valued at USD 479.39 million in 2021 and is expected to expand at a CAGR of 3.92 (Percent) during the forecast period, reaching USD 603.63 million by 2027. List of Indian TOP Manufactures in Camphor Market are: - ● Kanchi Karpooram ● Camphor and Allied Products ( Oriental Aromatics LTD) ● Mangalam Organics ● Sapthagiri Camphor ( Unlisted) - Among above 3 Listed scripts OAL and KANCHI shortlisted , Since OAL business is diversified its less risky , But Based on funadmentals Kanchi Karpooram is attractive /Cheap to buy. Market Cap ₹ 1,361 Cr. Current Price ₹ 404 Stock P/E 224 Book Value ₹ 186 Dividend Yield 0.14 % ROCE 5.19 % ROE 3.35 % Face Value ₹ 5.00 Promoter holding 74.2 % EPS last year ₹ 6.13 EPS latest quarter ₹ -1.76 Debt ₹ 231 Cr. Pledged percentage 0.00 % Net CF ₹ 3.33 Cr. Price to Cash Flow -64.0 Free Cash Flow ₹ -57.1 Cr. Debt to equity 0.37 OPM last year 6.46 % OPM 5Year 13.9 % Reserves ₹ 610 Cr. Price to book value 2.16 Int Coverage 1.59 PEG Ratio -29.6 Price to Sales 1.68 Market Cap to Sales 1.68 Qtr Profit Var -169 %
NSE:OALLong
by madhu2811
AMD scenarioToday we are in a distinctly upward trend, we set a high and now we are correcting in a corrective way to the 0.5 areas of the trend (Fibonacci) + to interesting liquidity areas. In my opinion, we will receive a continuation of declines according to the scenario I drew - in my estimation, the distribution of dividends at the beginning of 2025 will bring in smart money - we will receive a decline into buying and then we will begin to build long-term positions up to an all-time high.
NASDAQ:AMD
by David_capital
Handmade ProfitsEtsy is gaining bullish momentum, with a gap forming around the $50.00 level. A break above the $58.00 resistance would signal further strength, positioning the stock to reach the $67.50 weekly resistance. With an attractive risk-to-reward setup, this trade offers a favorable opportunity, while a $45.00 stop-loss effectively manages downside risk. In the longer term, ETSY has the potential to reach $89.59, driven by strong fundamentals. As a leader in the online marketplace for unique and handmade goods, Etsy is well-positioned to benefit from the continued growth of e-commerce. With a loyal customer base and innovative platform features, Etsy is poised to capture an expanding market share, supporting both near-term momentum and longer-term growth. This combination of technical momentum and strong market fundamentals supports a bullish push toward $67.50, with $89.59 as an achievable longer-term target. NASDAQ:ETSY
NASDAQ:ETSY
by The_Trading_Mechanic
ASML: A Key Moment to Take Advantage of Bearish SentimentCurrent Context ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is at a critical juncture. Recently, its share price has fallen nearly 24%, driven by a downward revision to its 2025 sales projections largely because +20% of its sales were being generated by China and now the country has seen competitors replace its best-selling technologies. Sales are now expected to range between 30 and 35 billion euros, compared to the previous forecast of 30 to 40 billion. This revision is due to a slower recovery in its traditional markets, especially in logic chip production and limited production capacity in the memory sector. Operational Analysis Despite this pessimistic review, ASML's growth prospects remain robust. The company maintains a dominant position thanks to its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, crucial at a time when demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is on the rise, driven by artificial intelligence, 5G and digital transformation. Although relations with China have weakened thanks to European interventionist policies, ASML anticipates that growth in segments outside China will offset this decline. The growing need for advanced semiconductors is expected to continue to support its growth in the medium term. Valuation Analysis From a valuation standpoint, ASML presents itself as an attractive opportunity. It currently has an EV/sales ratio of 9.5, which is 18.9% below its five-year average. It is estimated that the company's value could increase 30% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $360 billion, based on revenue projections of $36 billion by 2025. Furthermore, with a non-GAAP P/E of 34.5, which is also below its historical average, ASML appears undervalued compared to other industry players. Technical Analysis From a technical point of view the stock has been losing value since July 11. The last strong downward movement occurred on October 15, subsequently the downward pressure has kept the stock during the whole month and the beginning of November down. A bearish delta channel is visible and clearly marked by the POC price around €627 per share. This price retracement has caused the stock to reach December 2023 prices, prior to the Christmas rally. At the moment RSI is oversold at 32.49% so it is not strange if the firm's share price recovers value towards €753 which is the last delta pressure zone indicated in the next trading area. Risks to Consider However, not everything is positive. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly impact ASML's valuation. China accounts for more than 20% of the country's sales and it is a very high risk for the company to lose this major market because it is the market that can be a competitor with global suppliers and government support. The emergence of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which receives subsidies from the Chinese government, represents a long-term challenge. While these concerns may seem distant, it is essential not to underestimate their potential effect on the market. Conclusion Despite the risks, the combination of ASML's current valuation and its monopoly in EUV technology suggests that it is an appropriate time for investors to consider a position in this stock. With a solid growth outlook and favorable investment conditions, ASML is positioned as a strategic buy in a well-managed portfolio. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by ActivTrades
Buy 0883.hk CNOOC LIMITED @ HK $18.1Buy CNOOC here due to the following technical and fundamental reasons: Technical -50% Retracement of the last move up - Support at 50 Day moving average at about $18.00 Fundamental - 2014 Forward PE ratio of 5.5 - Growth in South China sea fields. - Recent China govt policy support of the stock market - Highly supportive dividend yield of 8% - Strong balance sheet - Still a very solid production growth outlook Risks - Extreme geopolitical tension may cause foreigners to be blocked out of trading Chinese equities, even if listed in Hong Kong (Like happened with Gazprom) Target: HK $28 within 1 year Stop: HK$ 15.00 Risk / Reward: 1:3
HKEX:883Long
by kavijh