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1/4/25 - $rpd - meh at $40, cap structure doesn't help1/4/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:RPD meh at $40, cap structure doesn't help - MSD topline growth meh - healthy GM but lacking EBITDA mgn (spending a lot for not great top line) - decent FCF yield at 175ish FCF on 3000 EV = 5.8% or better than cash - but given the cap structure include net debt of 500 mm - to get a yield of closer to 7% (which is starting pt for me given alternatives of either nxt close to 10% or stuff like tsm/ nvda)... you'd need to see 175 on top of 2.5 bn EV and that means 500 mm needs to come off the 2.5 bn current market cap... so that's -20% vs. today's px (=2/2.5-1) - so while V's not "the market" i have hurdles based on opportunity costs of other owns (i don't like scattered portfolios or to milk OTM calls on stonks that aren't obvious winners to me) - so yuh. sidelines here for now, focusing elsewhere until hits some of these levels in the picture e.g. low 30s and ideally mid 20s if/when/why. otherwise, pass, unless EPS/ catalysts change this picture V
NASDAQ:RPD
by VROCKSTAR
1/3/25 - $dt - want to own, but can't near $55. patience or pass1/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:DT want to own, but can't near $55... patience or pass - solid B2B analytics biz w healthy mgns, solid growth and cash gen - wrote about it in may '24 and only traded the Q for a quick in-out, didn't return to the scene of the crime at $40 (that's why it's important to set your alarms in trading view! as many as you can handle! and update them if/when triggered) - at this stage in the bull, we're a bit long in the tooth and for cheaper multiples and CF generation, again, sounding like i'm beating ol' charlie horse... NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA are simply better tech owns (moat + valuation + visibility). - but with that being said, i'd like to begin re-building my cyber security/ analytics portfolio this year and so fare it's quite tip-toe-ish... as i trade around small sizes in a few names here/ there. for the past few days i'm only messing w NYSE:S and NASDAQ:OKTA , but again, they're not super obvious when compared to the big names above (and my fav name $NXT... go read that - again diff industry, tho). - back to $DT. i've made some notes for myself on the chart. do we fill the gap near $40 if/when we puke-a-do-dah beta-risk-off "china bombed taiwan... oh wait, lol, that didn't happen"... could be. or "bird flu get ur bird flu" risk off? could be. idk what the controllers have in store for us, but if it's a pan sell off and this thing wicks... or has a mediocre growth Q and stonk -15-20%... it's defn a buy. stock already a buy on a multi-year horizon, just not great value. - next trigger for me is a hair above $50 to re-evaluate and i'd prefer mid 40s and ideally to fill that low 40s gap where we can ride w/ good mgn of safety. V
NYSE:DT
by VROCKSTAR
TSLA Fib Pitch FanNASDAQ:TSLA This chart is so S3XY. Fib Pitch Fan shows many high touch points and consolidation ranges to follow to get an idea of where this stock can really go. This baby can run. Going back to July of 2020 you can see a candle that has a high of $119.67 and a close of $100.06 and this candle had a nice run up to get there as well. We did see some consolidation after touching the trend line but after went on an incredible run in that range. Once it did break into the range above, the green zone, this stock touched the next trend line with a candle that had high of $294.83 and a close of $293.34. In similar fashion as of now we went above the green zone into the blue zone touching this blue line. Consolidating in this blue zone right now this stock looks good to break this blue line and make new highs. Above the blue line you can see this range in the blue zone has previous amounts of consolidation but each time you went toward the green zone above to touch that green line. We can break this green line and enter this green zone quickly due to volatility. This stock can enter into new ranges in the green zone not seen before. Volatility could take this stock to new heights and make new trends. This chart is posted on X. Link on my profile. Comment what you think about this chart. Comment any tips or suggestions. NASDAQ:TSLA
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by OpaliteInc
1/3/25 - $kd - it's worth a lot less... than $371/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:KD it's worth a lot less... than $37 - i turn over a lot of rocks, as you guys probably guess. this one i'd never heard of until i looked thru the NASDAQ:SIXG etf's holdings and went "hem let's see" - look. it's a consulting company with LSD growth and promise of really churning the FCF engine in coming years. - i don't doubt the product is good, ppl good etc. etc. but again there's a difference between a "company" and a "stock". many ppl don't learn this, or they pay the tuition to learn it the hard way (sometimes more than once). - so if we give this co the benefit of $500 mm in fcf in '26 (not even '25) and for MSD top line growth we say discount by 5% ("risk" free ish), you'd get $10 bn. and enterprise value is $11.5 bn and that's with heavy net debt - nearly $3 bn. so in other words, if m cap is about 8.5 bn today, to "remove" 1.5 bn (to get to the enterprise value of that hypothetical 10 bn), you'd need to haircut equity by (7/8.5 - 1) = 17%. - and honestly, that's just being "nice". realistically a co growing this rate in this environment, esp where the stock looks to have gotten half painted into YE and half looped into the pltr-style meme move... means you're probably looking at a -20-25% move (minimally) in '25 base case. could it meme to $40... $50. brosef's... it could go to $1000. anything is possible. but most things, like that, and even $50 are unlikely. so if $50 is "amazing" and $25-30 is base case... - "good luck". so i'm just burning a post on this to tell myself if anything it's probably more of a short than a long (tho shorting sux balls and i'd set a target at $45 b/c if/when the risk reward would be that much more obvious as a hedge). otherwise, definitely a no thank you and pass. V
NYSE:KDShort
by VROCKSTAR
1/3/25 - $akam - taking another look. dead $ in '251/3/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:AKAM taking another look. dead $ in '25 - wrote about NYSE:S earlier today, it's not "obvious" and there's some hair there but it's interesting. more of a trade. - got me looking to refresh my "cyber pandemic" list of about 20 names to see what's changed in the last 6 months as we turn the leaf into '25 as i think this sector could become hawt once again - rn NASDAQ:PANW is the NASDAQ:NVDA , but it's quite expensive (for good reason), other names like NYSE:NET are HQ and would be great dip-buys but the bar is simply too high when i compare to stuff in semis (like NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA that are cash monster moats and trade a helluva lot cheaper). and next in line are probably NASDAQ:ZS which i'd eye perhaps at curr levels and should write up shortly and NASDAQ:OKTA (but where in okta's case, growth is a bit more meh, but nonetheless think they've got a lock on identity going fwd). i digress... - so back to $akam. first.. when we look v. QQQ pair (type "AKAM/QQQ" in trading view), you can see over the long-term (look at monthly bars) this thing has simply faded. it's not been good money esp on a single-name basis when u could have just owned Q's. same when you compare w/ the panw, net, zs complex from above. and there's no real stabilization here either in the trend. tough. - on a fundamentals basis, there are a lot of factors to watch for in the coming results, but none in particular that will immediately re-rate the stock and send it popping beyond M&A (which IMO is a nice kicker, but not worth buying a stonk for unless it's trading below liquidation value - which this one is not). they've made a lot of M&A in the past years, have some interesting solutions... but ultimately seems like they're trying to find their footing still in a difficult CDN go-forward and where their cyber offer is not a leader. - so when you consider MSD++ growth (top line/ EPS), net debt (and not a small amount - nearly 3 bn on a 14 bn mkt cap name... means any "down" moves does little to really improve the valuation (like a bit net cash company would be). in other words, FCF yield here with mediocre growth is ~6% which is "fine" maybe cash+, but even 15% lower only takes you almost to 7% and you'd need -25% off on equity to get closer to 8%. even still... if stonk goes -25%... beyond trading the dip, would we want to own it? and if stonk rips with cyber maybe 10-15% from here... are we keeping it or trading for the faster horses? - pt is, this isn't a biz that has clear catalysts, valuation is in no man's land w/ not so great cap structure (which usually hurts tech businesses that aren't big growers, all else equal), so i don't see the pt of owning it vs. some of the alternatives. gl to the holders, but this one has a trigger for me to re-evaluate at $70 and even still, whatever brings us there... might mean there are better deals elsewhere (likely). V
NASDAQ:AKAM
by VROCKSTAR
Potential key reversal top detected for WBTLevel of interest: Prior support/resistance levels in the past of $3.04 (09-Aug-2022) and $3.75 (12-Dec-2022) (key support/resistance areas to observe). Await signals for entry such as DMI/ADX and/or RSI swing to the bearish direction, and observe market reaction to support/resistance area at $3.04 to confirm. Stop loss for the trade involving ASX:WBT (and indication that this trade is an absolute 'no-go') is any trade above the high of the signal day of 2nd January (i.e.: any trade above $3.80).
ASX:WBTShort
by Ivory_Wolf
EML Payments Limited | Chart & Forecast SummaryKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # EML Payments Limited - Double Formation * (Neckline) At 0.700 AUD | Subdivision 1 * Retracement Not Numbered | Uptrend Bias | Subdivision 2 - Triple Formation * Flat ABC Correction | Entry Condition | No Trade * Retracement Numbered | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Behavioural Settings Indication Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European Session(Upwards) - US-Session(Downwards) - Asian Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
CAPITALCOM:EMLAULong
by TradePolitics
HUM Bullish Setup - 1/20 Risk/Reward Opportunity on 3W Chart!NYSE:HUM is looking strong on the 3-week chart , presenting a bullish setup with a solid upward trendline and price sitting at a strong support level. The chart has recently shown two bullish spike candles, indicating increased buying pressure. The stock is trending toward its all-time high (ATH), which isn't far off, offering a promising upside. With a 1:20 risk-to-reward ratio until the ATH, this setup is highly favorable if the current support holds. 🚀
NYSE:HUMLong
by PattRec
$TSLA - Long entry after earningsI think NASDAQ:TSLA will shock many in the coming months. People who are too focused on short term performance are overlooking the long term price potential, I think weak hands will be shaken out tomorrow on the somewhat-likely earnings miss. With that, I expect smart buyers might be able to get an excellent long entry in the $19X.XX price-range tomorrow following a bad print. I like NASDAQ:TSLL as well, and I think that that will be where I allocate a significant position to. In an exponential age, prices will go much higher than people realize. This thesis is invalidated with a significant break lower than $190. Plan accordingly!
NASDAQ:TSLA
by httpz
3
CLNE Option Activity Looks Promising There was more positive news on CLNE today and a lot of buying activity with a single order of 5,000 on .CLNE260116C4. 80% of the call activity happened at or above ask. 51% of calls had a delta between 0.41 and 0.60. I like longer exp dates and this time that's where most of the buying is. I'll most likely open a position Friday. I'm already long in shares. They do have some financial concerns from tax credits possibly ending and a few other things. Either way it may be a good short term play. Always watch volume and use some form of stop or hedge.
NASDAQ:CLNELong
by Brohma