$TSLA NASDAQ:TSLA Outlook:
Tesla remains at an attractive price level. Bullish momentum may continue, driven by Elon Musk’s strategic satellite investments via Starlink. Additionally, steady Cybertruck demand and advancements in autonomous technology projects are supporting long term growth potential.
5/7/25 - $googl - Adding it back today at $1505/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:GOOGL
Adding it back today at $150
- i'll leave valuation for another post, except to say (based on the logic below), it's more attractive than the converse.
- aapl news/ testimony saying 'search lower'. okay.
- in my own experience, it did get disintermediated by various ai chats (i use several), but ultimately i'm finding two things 1/ i am spending more time in search, so the pie is growing and that still includes the same amt of time/ searches in google and 2/ google's search has gotten much better w/ the gemini response
- will it be harder to monetize ads? probably yes.
- is the lazy google culture going to be mostly replaced by AI? also yes (hurray!) and nobody seems to want to underwrite this
- so as long as their general digital businesses (must consider maps, email, cloud... many others incl. ai effors, waymo, i could go on) remain not falling apart at the seams, i'd believe their size/ capex budget still puts google as a leading AI-software winner from today
- add to this that most of the biz is digital e.g. no tariff exposed (yes the ads they serve are affected so i get it)
- also no real "china" exposure like say aapl/ nvda etc.
- so ultimately, does it go lower? V says "idk and idc" it's one of these businesses that post last results still delivered. generates cash. valuation reasonable as i mention above (we can get into this in another note later or in the comments)
- but days like today and it's mostly deleveraging. no real money LO is selling this thing in size, the opposite
- so i'm a buyer. necking out w/ some bi weekly calls for notional which allows me to get the "fed" reaction wrong and also benefit from a move higher.
- stock is a buy here
- and thanks aapl. keep talkin'
V
Long at 131.61 for a quick flipNothing special about this trade except that it was one of only 6 large cap stocks that registered as a buy for me today and was the best of the bunch, technically, imo.
Historically, the returns here are only about 20% better than an average market return per day, but using this trading technique, it has never lost money - 1027 wins, 0 losses (real and backtested) going all the way back to January of 1968. Having been through everything that 50+ year trading history threw at it and coming out perfect, I'm comfortable making this trade now.
Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position periodically at the close on and I will likely use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit, though I have been playing around with a new exit strategy, so FPC may or may not be used - I'll have to see how things play out.
As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
SLDB: Downside Buy Zone MappedConsistent with my revised thesis and the elevated regulatory risk, I’ve outlined a downside range on the chart where I’d consider getting involved. The top of the zone is marked at $2.51 (April low), with the lower boundary at $1.81, the October 2023 low.
Given the current backdrop, I’m not stepping in until price moves into this range and the broader setup improves. I’m leaning more toward the lower end, particularly around the $2.00 area or below, as a potential entry, but only if conditions warrant it.
No need to force anything here. Staying patient and letting price come to me.
Coinbase: Catching BreathCoinbase is currently catching its breath in a sideways movement. We still attribute more upside potential to the ongoing wave b in orange, expecting it to rise close to the resistance at $422.11. However, wave c should start below this mark and ultimately complete the blue wave (ii) above the support at $138.45. The subsequent blue wave (iii) should then carry the price significantly above the $422.11 mark.
ENDURANCE – Breakout from Supply Zone | Target ₹2136 ⚙️ ENDURANCE TECH LTD (NSE:ENDURANCE)
Time Frame: 15min / 1 Hour
📊 Trade Type: Positional / Intraday Momentum
📌 Buy Zone: ₹2042 (Above supply zone breakout)
🎯 Target 1: ₹2136
🎯 Target 2: ₹2287
🛑 Stop Loss: ₹1915
📈 CMP: ₹2022.60
📌 Chart Insights:
✅ Strong volume breakout from horizontal resistance
✅ Cleared EMA 9/13/26 crossover
✅ RSI > 60 indicates bullish momentum
✅ Bollinger Band breakout (BB %B > 1.00)
✅ Breaking above pivot R2 zone (₹2042) opens room to R3
⚠️ Strategy:
Enter on confirmation above ₹2042 with volume support on 15min or 1H timeframe.
Stop loss below breakout candle or EMA cluster around ₹1915.
Trailing stop as it approaches targets.
For Education Purposes Only
CMI - Cummins Inc. (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long PositionCMI - Cummins Inc. (2 hours chart, NYSE) - Long Position; Short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: High {support & market structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~2.53
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 293.45 {pre-market}
Entry limit ~ 288.50 to 285.50 (Avg. - 287) on April 25, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 294.50 (+2.61%; +7.5 points)
2. Target limit ~ 306 (+6.62%; +19 points)
Stop order limit ~ 279.50 (-2.61%; -7.5 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observations
= important updates
(parentheses) = information
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
From $1.37 to $8.48 in 5 hours +518% Massive start of the week with 2 Buy Alerts sent out right before vertical move!
$4.00 confirmed as important line in premarket trading already, then quickly set a strong support above it as soon as market opened and when it came down to re-test it again after initial pop it was showing strong hidden buying in that area which was confirming everything else we were looking and aiming for - power vertical squeeze to new highs.
Biggest stock gainer of the entire stock market today AMEX:GPUS
Get ready for next ones!
Buffett’s Planned Exit Isn’t Berkshire Hathaway’s Only ProblemI guess we knew it had to happen sooner or later. Warren Buffett, often considered the greatest fundamental investor of all time, announced over the weekend that at age 94, he’s finally stepping aside as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway NYSE:BRK.A NYSE:BRK.B .
What does Berkshire’s technical and fundamental analysis say as Buffett prepares to leave the conglomerate by year’s end?
Let’s check it out:
Buffett’s Departure and Berkshire Hathaway’s Fundamental Analysis
It’s worth noting that Buffett, who served as Berkshire’s CEO since 1970, will apparently stay on as the company’s chairman. But he’ll hand over the CEO role to Greg Abel, currently vice chair of Berkshire's non-insurance operations.
Buffett and late Berkshire Vice Chair Charlie Munger anointed Abel as the firm's eventual day-to-day chief executive in 2021. The incoming CEO will eventually have the final word on all operational issues and capital deployment.
Buffett, an investor that I’ve often tried to emulate, lost Munger -- his career-long friend and business partner -- at age 99 some 18 months ago. For decades, they reportedly talked everything over.
Buffett’s CEO job must have become more difficult and less fun without someone who served as both a sounding board and idea generator for more than half a century.
As for Berkshire stock, BRK.B shares were up 13.9% year to date and 27% over the past 12 months as I wrote this Thursday afternoon.
Shares have risen even though Berkshire reported seemingly underwhelming Q1 results Saturday at the company’s annual shareholder meeting (where Buffett also announced his retirement as CEO).
Berkshire posted $9.6 billion in operating earnings on $89.7 billion in revenue. Operating earnings actually fell year over year, while revenues contracted by 0.2%.
Net income attributable to Berkshire shareholders also sank by a gnarly looking 63.8% to $4.6 billion after accounting for such items as interest, taxes and non-operating income/expenses. Meanwhile, total costs and expenses increased by 2.3% to $78.268 billion.
What happened?
Well, the firm's investment portfolio -- which has long been Buffett's forte -- really took its toll on performance during Berkshire’s latest quarter.
Investment results dropped from a $1.9 billion gain in the year-ago quarter to (wait for it) a $6.4 billion loss in the latest period. Yikes!
However, Buffett has long said that Berkshire invests not to perform well over one quarter, but to do so over decades.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Technical Analysis
Now let’s look at BRK.B’s chart going back some 2-1/2 months through Wednesday (May 7):
Readers will first see a so-called “double top” pattern of bearish reversal, as denoted by the two red boxes marked “Top 1” and “Top 2.” That pattern set up very accurately in time for last Saturday's shareholder meeting.
BRK.B has also recently given back its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (or “EMA,” marked with a green line above). That probably turned some swing traders against the name.
However, there’s been a genuine fight around the stock's 50-day Simple Moving Average -- or “SMA,” as marked with a blue line above. That likely has portfolio managers exhibiting some uncertainty about the stock.
Should BRK.B fall below the 50-day SMA, portfolio chiefs will potentially face pressure from their risk managers to reduce long-side exposure to the stock.
Readers will also note that Berkshire rebounded off of its 200-day SMA (marked with a red line at $462) in early April. That’s not a downside target for the stock, but rather a downside pivot that could indeed signal even lower prices to come.
Meanwhile, BRK.B’s Relative Strength Index (the gray line at the chart’s top) is currently neutral, but that’s not the case with the stock’s daily Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator.
The MACD -- marked with gold and black lines and blue bars at the chart’s bottom -- had been in decent shape, but that’s recently changed.
First, the histogram of Berkshire’s 9-day EMA (marked with blue bars) recently flipped from positive to negative. That’s typically a bearish sign.
At the same time, the stock’s 12-day EMA (black line) has crossed below its 26-day EMA (gold line). Both are still above zero, but many investors view having a stock’s 12-day line below its 26-day one as sub-optimal.
What might happen from here? A lot will depend on how Berkshire performs during the current quarter.
We know that many of its investments have come back recently in value, and it would certainly be rough to see Buffett -- one of Wall Street’s all-time greats -- ride off into sunset in a less-than-graceful fashion.
But for now, Berkshire’s chart doesn’t look especially bullish to me.
(Moomoo Technologies Inc. Markets Commentator Stephen “Sarge” Guilfoyle had no position in BRK.A or BRK.B at the time of writing this column.)
This article discusses technical analysis, other approaches, including fundamental analysis, may offer very different views. The examples provided are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be reflective of the results you can expect to achieve. Specific security charts used are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security. Past investment performance does not indicate or guarantee future success. Returns will vary, and all investments carry risks, including loss of principal. This content is also not a research report and is not intended to serve as the basis for any investment decision. The information contained in this article does not purport to be a complete description of the securities, markets, or developments referred to in this material. Moomoo and its affiliates make no representation or warranty as to the article's adequacy, completeness, accuracy or timeliness for any particular purpose of the above content. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that any statements, estimates, price targets, opinions or forecasts provided herein will prove to be correct.
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M&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - LongM&M -Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. (2 hours chart, NSE) - Long Position; short-term research idea.
Risk assessment: Medium {volume structure integrity risk}
Risk/Reward ratio ~ 4.78
Current Market Price (CMP) ~ 2935
Entry limit ~2930 to 2910 (Avg. - 2920) on April 30, 2025
1. Target limit ~ 3015 (+3.25%; +95 points)
2. Target limit ~ 3135 (+7.36%; +215 points)
Stop order limit ~ 2875 (-1.54%; -45 points)
Disclaimer: Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. All information presented in this group is strictly for reference and personal study purposes only and is not a recommendation and/or a solicitation to act upon under any interpretation of the letter.
LEGEND:
{curly brackets} = observation notes
= important updates
(parentheses) = information details
~ tilde/approximation = variable value
-hyphen = fixed value
QBTS trend reversal comingSee this beautiful trend forming here, time to get out only to dip back in once levels hit the right Fib levels. Line of resistance is evident, holding around $11 while line of support firmly at $5.70/6-ish. I'd ride this down to $7-ish, then buy back long at those levels. Enjoy the ride!!!!
5/9/25 - $ctlp - Buy sub $8, but nuanced5/9/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NASDAQ:CTLP
Buy sub $8, but nuanced
- cash generative, normalized mid single digits FCF yield
- vending/ micro markets are part of the dystopian future we're headed towards, these guys have pole position and growing DD even in tough environment
- ST hiccup had to do with weather (though I take that comment w a grain of salt b/c i've dealt w/ co's that blame their own issues on things like this... but for now i'll give it a pass unless they do it again)
- EBITDA mgns can scale toward mid 20s w/ growth still S-curving, healthy in the teens for the coming years
- so while a 500 mm cap company requires execution and i can't convincingly take this larger until i do more work...
- i can add this as a 1% position to my book here at $7.7 and sell the june 20 $7.5 calls (so that's the strategy i've been pursuing if you've followed me in the last month or so)... so taking some upside off the table, willing to protect some downside for a co i'd like to own lower all else equal for high single digit implied MoM return
- lmk if you have a more nuanced view here
- but i like the "scarce" type of asset these guys represent in an otherwise competitive "fintech" payments world. there's a clear differentiation here, even if the model is (by definition) more capital intensive.
V
Take-Two: Keep at It!Take-Two recently hit a new all-time high but quickly pulled back. While the stock tried to recover, it encountered renewed selling pressure. With that all-time high, it came close to the lower edge of our beige Target Zone between $241.59 and $257.87. In our primary scenario, we still expect this zone to be reached as part of the beige wave b. However, there’s a 33% chance the stock will fail to make it there and instead turn lower early—forming a premature corrective low for the blue wave alt.(II) within the blue Target Zone between $107.47 and $46.
MICROSTRATEGY Can $2000 be its next High?Microstrategy (MSTR) followed the exact trading pattern we suggested on our last analysis (December 27 2024, see chart below) as it made its technical correction December through March and rebounded aggressively in April:
Back then we called this a shift to a new paradigm and is no different than the April 1999 bounce than led to the eventual massive rally that made the Dotcom Bubble burst.
Since the recent All Time High (ATH) broke above the (blue) 23-year Channel Up, we applied the Fibonacci Channel levels all the way from its March 2000 Dotcom High. The fractal we mentioned before shows that the stock's next Target, and possibly this Cycle's High, can be on the 0.618 Fib at $2000.
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ONTO got smoked - opportunity?I had this as a buy at higher levels, but support was lost and I exited my position at a small loss. We have now dropped over 30% today, the earnings suggest 2-4 tough quarters ahead. But I believe this to be one of the best opportunities in the semiconductor space. It’s a smaller cap stock and they focus on providing metrology solutions, advanced packaging for AI. Expect wild swings to the downside and upside, I believe the downside swing has just occurred as investors don’t have the patience to hold through a cyclical downturn.
I’m dipping my toes into this now, not financial advice, do what’s best for you.