S&P 500 futures trade sharply lower on tariff tumult
- US equity index futures plunge; Nasdaq 100 falls >4%
- Initial jobless claims 219k vs 225k estimate
- Feb Intl trade -$122.7B vs -$123.5B estimate
- Euro STOXX 600 index down >2%
- Dollar down ~1.5%; gold off ~2%; bitcoin off >4%; crude down >6%
- US 10-Year Treasury yield slides to ~4.03%
S&P 500 FUTURES TRADE SHARPLY LOWER ON TARIFF TUMULT
U.S. equity index futures are tumbling on Thursday after President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs on major trade partners heightened fears of an all-out trade war that could push the global economy into a recession.
With this, e-mini S&P 500 futures 
ES1! are sliding more than 3%, putting them on track for their biggest daily drop since September 2022.
After hitting a mid-March low, the futures bounced. However, a long-term Fibonacci-based moving average, the 233-day moving average, helped cap strength.
In the wake of the tariff announcement jolt, the futures have now hit their lowest level since August 2024. And at Thursday's 5,481 low, they were down 11.84% from their December 2024 record close.
The futures have since bounced slightly and now reside around 5,500.
Traders are turning to the weekly charts to assess some nearby support levels that may offer potential for the futures to mount a reversal:
The 89-week moving average (WMA), another Fibonacci-based moving average, is now just below 5,500, while the 100-WMA is now around 5,420.
Of note, the futures spent the last four weeks or so essentially trapped between the 23.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracements of the October 2023-December 2024 advance.
With this breakdown, the next retracement support of that advance is at the 50% level, which is at 5,357.25.
A recovery back above the mid-March trough at 5,559.50 and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 5,563.04, confirmed by a weekly close, would suggest the worst may be over for now.
That said, the futures would still have work to do to break the pattern of declining peaks and troughs from the December 2024 record high and bolster the notion that a more enduring low had, indeed, been found.
The upper weekly Cloud boundary is now around 5,685.
The 23.6% Fibonacci retracement is at 5,817.67, the late-March high was at 5,837.25, and the mid-January low was at 5,589.25.
(Terence Gabriel)
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FOR THURSDAY'S EARLIER LIVE MARKETS POSTS:
DON'T BANK ON FED CUTS AFTER TARIFFS - COLUMBIA THREADNEEDLE CIO
TENTATIVE OPTIMISTS MULL BEST OUTCOME AFTER TRUMP TARIFFS - CLICK HERE
TARIFF RISKS, IS PHARMA OUT OF THE WOODS? - CLICK HERE
DEFENSIVE BUYING LIMITS THE DAMAGE
EUROPE BEFORE THE BELL: HEAVY SELLOFF COMING
SEEMS INVESTORS REALLY DON'T LIKE TARIFFS
