What to Watch in the Day Ahead - Friday, April 11
Big Wall Street lenders will kick off the latest earnings season with focus on their commentary and guidance in the backdrop of a raging tariff war. While JP Morgan’s first-quarter profits may rise slightly, investors will be watching more closely on how the biggest U.S. lender by assets plans to navigate the disruption from new tariffs. Meanwhile, bond trading weakened and stock market deals were stalled due to uncertainty sparked by shifting U.S. trade policy and geopolitical turmoil in the quarter, pointing to subdued first-quarter results for Morgan Stanley. Separately, Wells Fargo's first-quarter profit is expected to fall due to higher loan loss provisions as investors watch out for updates on the bank's annual interest income forecast and management commentary on the health of economy. Additionally, Bank of New York Mellon is expected to report a jump in first-quarter profit as it earned higher interest income from its customers that will cushion a hit from higher bad loan provisions. Furthermore, asset manager BlackRock is expected to post a rise in first-quarter profit as investors poured into exchange traded funds and other low-risk assets amid market volatility.
After U.S. consumer prices unexpectedly fell in March, all eyes will be on the Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers, as inflation concerns remain amid U.S.-China trade spat. PPI for final demand is estimated to have risen 0.2% last month after remaining unchanged in the previous period. In the 12 months through March, the PPI advanced 3.3% after rising 3.2% in February. Excluding food and energy components, PPI gained 0.3% last month, after falling 0.1% in February. Additionally, the preliminary reading of University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index for April will be out, which is forecast to be 54.5. The final reading for March was at 57.
Federal Reserve policymakers will wind up the week with some events scheduled through the day. Boston Fed President Susan Collins is slated to be interviewed on Yahoo! Finance. (0900/1300) Separately, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem is scheduled to speak on the U.S. economy and monetary policy and participate in a moderated conversation during the Arkansas State Bank Department's 29th Annual Day event. (1000/1400). Lastly, New York Fed President John Williams is due to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy before the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce. (1100/1500)
Latin America’s economic diary includes crucial data from Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Consumer prices in Brazil likely rose 5.48% in the 12 months through March, edging up from 5.06% rise reported in the previous 12-month period. On a month-on-month basis, inflation is projected to have ticked up to 0.56% last month, compared to a 1.31% climb in February. Brazil's economic activity is forecast to have inched up 0.15% in February, down from the 0.90% jump reported in January. Separately, Argentina’s inflation data is estimated to show a rise, with inflation rate likely jumping 2.6% in March after gaining 2.4% in the month before. However, over the 12-month period through March, inflation rate likely increased 54.2%, easing from 66.9% rise recorded in the previous 12-month period. In Mexico, industrial output is projected to show a rebound in February with a marginal rise of 0.1%, compared to a 0.4% decline in January. However, the decline probably widened annually, with output likely down 3.9% in the 12 months through February, compared to a decline of 2.9% posted in the previous 12-month period.
