EUR/USD: Euro Ticks Up to $1.1750 on US-EU Deal — Here’s What Traders Are Watching This Week

Three major scheduled events will be narrating moves across forex markets and traders might want to prepare accordingly — brace yourselves for volatility. But first — two big partners struck a trade deal.

💶 Euro Kicks Up Ahead of Busy Week

• The EURUSD edged up to $1.1750 to kick off the week, holding steady about 100 pips below its four-year high as traders cheer a trade deal (finally) and eye a trio of market-moving events. The mood? Cautiously optimistic — but with plenty of catalysts waiting to shake things up.
• We’re talking central bank decisions, inflation prints, and US jobs data — all on deck. In this stretch, forex markets are bracing for volatility. Buckle in — it won’t be quiet.
• But first, the US and the EU struck a deal Sunday, just a few days before the August 1 deadline. President Trump and European Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen met in Scotland and agreed a 15% US tariff on all EU goods. The deal was apparently modeled on the recent Japan deal, slashing the 30% rate first proposed by Trump.

🏛️ Fed Decision Wednesday: Hold, Then Cut?

• Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve concludes its two-day policy meeting Wednesday, and Chair Jay Powell is widely expected to hold rates steady — again. But markets are already looking past July and betting on a rate cut in September.
• Adding drama, Donald Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to lower borrowing costs, ratcheting up political tension. Powell will likely play it cool — but traders will be dissecting every word of the statement and press conference.
• For the euro-dollar, a dovish tilt could weaken the greenback and lift the euro, while any pushback from Powell may temper expectations and cap gains.

📉 Eurozone Inflation: Slipping Below Target?

• Eurozone inflation data drops Friday, and consensus sees July prices cooling to 1.9%, slipping below the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the second time this year.
• That may offer cover for the ECB after it paused rate cuts following a big cycle of easing — but it also raises questions about growth and demand heading into the third quarter.
• Still, the euro’s recent strength has complicated the ECB’s job. A weaker inflation print could temper the upside momentum — unless US data flips the narrative.

📊 US Jobs Report: Can NFPs Keep Pace?

• Also on Friday, the July US nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show 108,000 new jobs, down from June’s 147,000. Slower job growth could strengthen the case for a September rate cut — and pressure the dollar.
• But a surprise to the upside (or stickier wage data) could rekindle hawkish fears. For the buck, the NFP print may be the tie-breaker — watch out for outsized moves.