Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing🙏🏻 This is HADES (Hybrid Adaptive Double Exponential Smoothing) : fully data-driven & adaptive exponential smoothing method, that gains all the necessary info directly from data in the most natural way and needs no subjective parameters & no optimizations. It gets applied to data itself -> to fit residuals & one-point forecast errors, all at O(1) algo complexity. I designed it for streaming high-frequency univariate time series data, such as medical sensor readings, orderbook data, tick charts, requests generated by a backend, etc.
The HADES method is:
fit & forecast = a + b * (1 / alpha + T - 1)
T = 0 provides in-sample fit for the current datum, and T + n provides forecast for n datapoints.
y = input time series
a = y, if no previous data exists
b = 0, if no previous data exists
otherwise:
a = alpha * y + (1 - alpha) * a
b = alpha * (a - a ) + (1 - alpha) * b
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
len = min(ceil(exp(1 / sig)), available data)
sig = sqrt(Absolute net change in y / Sum of absolute changes in y)
For the start datapoint when both numerator and denominator are zeros, we define 0 / 0 = 1
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The same set of operations gets applied to the data first, then to resulting fit absolute residuals to build prediction interval, and finally to absolute forecasting errors (from one-point ahead forecast) to build forecasting interval:
prediction interval = data fit +- resoduals fit * k
forecasting interval = data opf +- errors fit * k
where k = multiplier regulating intervals width, and opf = one-point forecasts calculated at each time t
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How-to:
0) Apply to your data where it makes sense, eg. tick data;
1) Use power transform to compensate for multiplicative behavior in case it's there;
2) If you have complete data or only the data you need, like the full history of adjusted close prices: go to the next step; otherwise, guided by your goal & analysis, adjust the 'start index' setting so the calculations will start from this point;
3) Use prediction interval to detect significant deviations from the process core & make decisions according to your strategy;
4) Use one-point forecast for nowcasting;
5) Use forecasting intervals to ~ understand where the next datapoints will emerge, given the data-generating process will stay the same & lack structural breaks.
I advise k = 1 or 1.5 or 4 depending on your goal, but 1 is the most natural one.
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Why exponential smoothing at all? Why the double one? Why adaptive? Why not Holt's method?
1) It's O(1) algo complexity & recursive nature allows it to be applied in an online fashion to high-frequency streaming data; otherwise, it makes more sense to use other methods;
2) Double exponential smoothing ensures we are taking trends into account; also, in order to model more complex time series patterns such as seasonality, we need detrended data, and this method can be used to do it;
3) The goal of adaptivity is to eliminate the window size question, in cases where it doesn't make sense to use cumulative moving typical value;
4) Holt's method creates a certain interaction between level and trend components, so its results lack symmetry and similarity with other non-recursive methods such as quantile regression or linear regression. Instead, I decided to base my work on the original double exponential smoothing method published by Rob Brown in 1956, here's the original source , it's really hard to find it online. This cool dude is considered the one who've dropped exponential smoothing to open access for the first time🤘🏻
R&D; log & explanations
If you wanna read this, you gotta know, you're taking a great responsability for this long journey, and it gonna be one hell of a trip hehe
Machine learning, apprentissage automatique, машинное обучение, digital signal processing, statistical learning, data mining, deep learning, etc., etc., etc.: all these are just artificial categories created by the local population of this wonderful world, but what really separates entities globally in the Universe is solution complexity / algorithmic complexity.
In order to get the game a lil better, it's gonna be useful to read the HTES script description first. Secondly, let me guide you through the whole R&D; process.
To discover (not to invent) the fundamental universal principle of what exponential smoothing really IS, it required the review of the whole concept, understanding that many things don't add up and don't make much sense in currently available mainstream info, and building it all from the beginning while avoiding these very basic logical & implementation flaws.
Given a complete time t, and yet, always growing time series population that can't be logically separated into subpopulations, the very first question is, 'What amount of data do we need to utilize at time t?'. Two answers: 1 and all. You can't really gain much info from 1 datum, so go for the second answer: we need the whole dataset.
So, given the sequential & incremental nature of time series, the very first and basic thing we can do on the whole dataset is to calculate a cumulative , such as cumulative moving mean or cumulative moving median.
Now we need to extend this logic to exponential smoothing, which doesn't use dataset length info directly, but all cool it can be done via a formula that quantifies the relationship between alpha (smoothing parameter) and length. The popular formulas used in mainstream are:
alpha = 1 / length
alpha = 2 / (length + 1)
The funny part starts when you realize that Cumulative Exponential Moving Averages with these 2 alpha formulas Exactly match Cumulative Moving Average and Cumulative (Linearly) Weighted Moving Average, and the same logic goes on:
alpha = 3 / (length + 1.5) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with quadratic weights, and
alpha = 4 / (length + 2) , matches Cumulative Weighted Moving Average with cubic weghts, and so on...
It all just cries in your shoulder that we need to discover another, native length->alpha formula that leverages the recursive nature of exponential smoothing, because otherwise, it doesn't make sense to use it at all, since the usual CMA and CMWA can be computed incrementally at O(1) algo complexity just as exponential smoothing.
From now on I will not mention 'cumulative' or 'linearly weighted / weighted' anymore, it's gonna be implied all the time unless stated otherwise.
What we can do is to approach the thing logically and model the response with a little help from synthetic data, a sine wave would suffice. Then we can think of relationships: Based on algo complexity from lower to higher, we have this sequence: exponential smoothing @ O(1) -> parametric statistics (mean) @ O(n) -> non-parametric statistics (50th percentile / median) @ O(n log n). Based on Initial response from slow to fast: mean -> median Based on convergence with the real expected value from slow to fast: mean (infinitely approaches it) -> median (gets it quite fast).
Based on these inputs, we need to discover such a length->alpha formula so the resulting fit will have the slowest initial response out of all 3, and have the slowest convergence with expected value out of all 3. In order to do it, we need to have some non-linear transformer in our formula (like a square root) and a couple of factors to modify the response the way we need. I ended up with this formula to meet all our requirements:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length * 2) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 8)
^^ as you can see on the screenshot; where the red line is median, the blue line is the mean, and the purple line is exponential smoothing with the formulas you've just seen, we've met all the requirements.
Now we just have to do the same procedure to discover the length->alpha formula but for double exponential smoothing, which models trends as well, not just level as in single exponential smoothing. For this comparison, we need to use linear regression and quantile regression instead of the mean and median.
Quantile regression requires a non-closed form solution to be solved that you can't really implement in Pine Script, but that's ok, so I made the tests using Python & sklearn:
paste.pics
^^ on this screenshot, you can see the same relationship as on the previous screenshot, but now between the responses of quantile regression & linear regression.
I followed the same logic as before for designing alpha for double exponential smoothing (also considered the initial overshoots, but that's a little detail), and ended up with this formula:
alpha = sqrt(1 / length) / 2
which simplifies to:
alpha = 1 / sqrt(len * 4)
Btw, given the pattern you see in the resulting formulas for single and double exponential smoothing, if you ever want to do triple (not Holt & Winters) exponential smoothing, you'll need len * 2 , and just len * 1 for quadruple exponential smoothing. I hope that based on this sequence, you see the hint that Maybe 4 rounds is enough.
Now since we've dealt with the length->alpha formula, we can deal with the adaptivity part.
Logically, it doesn't make sense to use a slower-than-O(1) method to generate input for an O(1) method, so it must be something universal and minimalistic: something that will help us measure consistency in our data, yet something far away from statistics and close enough to topology.
There's one perfect entity that can help us, this is fractal efficiency. The way I define fractal efficiency can be checked at the very beginning of the post, what matters is that I add a square root to the formula that is not typically added.
As explained in the description of my metric QSFS , one of the reasons for SQRT-transformed values of fractal efficiency applied in moving window mode is because they start to closely resemble normal distribution, yet with support of (0, 1). Data with this interesting property (normally distributed yet with finite support) can be modeled with the beta distribution.
Another reason is, in infinitely expanding window mode, fractal efficiency of every time series that exhibits randomness tends to infinitely approach zero, sqrt-transform kind of partially neutralizes this effect.
Yet another reason is, the square root might better reflect the dimensional inefficiency or degree of fractal complexity, since it could balance the influence of extreme deviations from the net paths.
And finally, fractals exhibit power-law scaling -> measures like length, area, or volume scale in a non-linear way. Adding a square root acknowledges this intrinsic property, while connecting our metric with the nature of fractals.
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I suspect that, given analogies and connections with other topics in geometry, topology, fractals and most importantly positive test results of the metric, it might be that the sqrt transform is the fundamental part of fractal efficiency that should be applied by default.
Now the last part of the ballet is to convert our fractal efficiency to length value. The part about inverse proportionality is obvious: high fractal efficiency aka high consistency -> lower window size, to utilize only the last data that contain brand new information that seems to be highly reliable since we have consistency in the first place.
The non-obvious part is now we need to neutralize the side effect created by previous sqrt transform: our length values are too low, and exponentiation is the perfect candidate to fix it since translating fractal efficiency into window sizes requires something non-linear to reflect the fractal dynamics. More importantly, using exp() was the last piece that let the metric shine, any other transformations & formulas alike I've tried always had some weird results on certain data.
That exp() in the len formula was the last piece that made it all work both on synthetic and on real data.
^^ a standalone script calculating optimal dynamic window size
Omg, THAT took time to write. Comment and/or text me if you need
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"Versace Pip-Boy, I'm a young gun coming up with no bankroll" 👻
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Adaptive
Adaptive Supertrend with Dynamic Optimization [EdgeTerminal]The Enhanced Adaptive Supertrend represents a significant evolution of the traditional Supertrend indicator, incorporating advanced mathematical optimization, dynamic volatility adjustment, intelligent signal filtering, reduced noise and false positives.
Key Features
Dynamic volatility-adjusted bands
Self-optimizing multiplier
Intelligent signal filtering system
Cooldown period to prevent signal clustering
Clear buy/sell signals with optimal positioning
Smooth trend visualization
RSI and MACD integration for confirmation
Performance-based optimization
Dynamic Band Calculation
Dynamic Band Calculation automatically adapts to market volatility, generates wider bands in volatile periods, reducing false signals. It also generates tighter bands in stable periods, capturing smaller moves and smooth transitions between different volatility regimes.
RSI Integration
The RSI and MACD play multiple crucial roles in the Adaptive Supertrend.
It first helps with momentum factor calculation. This dynamically adjusts band width based on momentum conditions. When the RSI is oversold, bands widen by 20% to prevent false signals during strong downtrends and provide more room for price movements in extreme conditions.
When the RSI is overbought, brands tighten by 20% and they become more sensitive to potential reversals to help catch trend changes earlier.
This reduces false signals in strong trends, helps detect potential reversals earlier than the usual, create adaptive band width based on market conditions and finally, better protection against whipsaws.
MACD Integration
The MACD in this supertrend indicator serves as a trend confirmation tool. The idea is to use MACD crossovers to confirm trend changes to reduce false trend change signals and enhance the signal quality.
For this to become a signal, MACD crossovers must align with price movement to help filter out weak or false signals, which acts as an additional layer of trend confirmation.
Additionally, MACD line position relative to signal line indicates trend strength, helps maintain positions in strong trends and assists in early detection of trend weakening.
Momentum Integration
Momentum Integration prevents false signals in extreme conditions, It adjusts dynamic bands based on market momentum, improves trend confirmation in strong moves and reduces whipsaws during consolidations.
Improved signals
There are a few systems to generate better signals, allowing for generally faster signals compared to original supertrend, such as:
Enforced cooldown period between signals
Prevents signal clustering
Clearer entry/exit points
Reduced false signals during choppy markets
Performance Optimization
This script implements a Sharpe ratio-inspired optimization algorithm to balance returns against risk, penalize large drawdowns, adapt parameters in real-time and improve risk-adjusted performance
Parameter Settings
ATR Period: 10 (default) - adjust based on timeframe
Initial Multiplier: 3.0 (default) - will self-optimize
Optimization Period: 50 (default) - longer periods for more stability
Smoothing Period: 3 (default) - adjust for signal smoothness
Best Practices
Use on multiple timeframes for confirmation
Allow the optimization process to run for at least 50 bars
Monitor the adaptive multiplier for trend strength indication
Consider RSI and MACD alignment for stronger signals
Moment-Based Adaptive DetectionMBAD (Moment-Based Adaptive Detection) : a method applicable to a wide range of purposes, like outlier or novelty detection, that requires building a sensible interval/set of thresholds. Unlike other methods that are static and rely on optimizations that inevitably lead to underfitting/overfitting, it dynamically adapts to your data distribution without any optimizations, MLE, or stuff, and provides a set of data-driven adaptive thresholds, based on closed-form solution with O(n) algo complexity.
1.5 years ago, when I was still living in Versailles at my friend's house not knowing what was gonna happen in my life tomorrow, I made a damn right decision not to give up on one idea and to actually R&D it and see what’s up. It allowed me to create this one.
The Method Explained
I’ve been wandering about z-values, why exactly 6 sigmas, why 95%? Who decided that? Why would you supersede your opinion on data? Based on what? Your ego?
Then I consciously noticed a couple of things:
1) In control theory & anomaly detection, the popular threshold is 3 sigmas (yet nobody can firmly say why xD). If your data is Laplace, 3 sigmas is not enough; you’re gonna catch too many values, so it needs a higher sigma.
2) Yet strangely, the normal distribution has kurtosis of 3, and 6 for Laplace.
3) Kurtosis is a standardized moment, a moment scaled by stdev, so it means "X amount of something measured in stdevs."
4) You generate synthetic data, you check on real data (market data in my case, I am a quant after all), and you see on both that:
lower extension = mean - standard deviation * kurtosis ≈ data minimum
upper extension = mean + standard deviation * kurtosis ≈ data maximum
Why not simply use max/min?
- Lower info gain: We're not using all info available in all data points to estimate max/min; we just pick the current higher and lower values. Lol, it’s the same as dropping exponential smoothing with alpha = 0 on stationary data & calling it a day.
You can’t update the estimates of min and max when new data arrives containing info about the matter. All you can do is just extend min and max horizontally, so you're not using new info arriving inside new data.
- Mixing order and non-order statistics is a bad idea; we're losing integrity and coherence. That's why I don't like the Hurst exponent btw (and yes, I came up with better metrics of my own).
- Max & min are not even true order statistics, unlike a percentile (finding which requires sorting, which requires multiple passes over your data). To find min or max, you just need to do one traversal over your data. Then with or without any weighting, 100th percentile will equal max. So unlike a weighted percentile, you can’t do weighted max. Then while you can always check max and min of a geometric shape, now try to calculate the 56th percentile of a pentagram hehe.
TL;DR max & min are rather topological characteristics of data, just as the difference between starting and ending points. Not much to do with statistics.
Now the second part of the ballet is to work with data asymmetry:
1) Skewness is also scaled by stdev -> so it must represent a shift from the data midrange measured in stdevs -> given asymmetric data, we can include this info in our models. Unlike kurtosis, skewness has a sign, so we add it to both thresholds:
lower extension = mean - standard deviation * kurtosis + standard deviation * skewness
upper extension = mean + standard deviation * kurtosis + standard deviation * skewness
2) Now our method will work with skewed data as well, omg, ain’t it cool?
3) Hold up, but what about 5th and 6th moments (hyperskewness & hyperkurtosis)? They should represent something meaningful as well.
4) Perhaps if extensions represent current estimated extremums, what goes beyond? Limits, beyond which we expect data not to be able to pass given the current underlying process generating the data?
When you extend this logic to higher-order moments, i.e., hyperskewness & hyperkurtosis (5th and 6th moments), they measure asymmetry and shape of distribution tails, not its core as previous moments -> makes no sense to mix 4th and 3rd moments (skewness and kurtosis) with 5th & 6th, so we get:
lower limit = mean - standard deviation * hyperkurtosis + standard deviation * hyperskewness
upper limit = mean + standard deviation * hyperkurtosis + standard deviation * hyperskewness
While extensions model your data’s natural extremums based on current info residing in the data without relying on order statistics, limits model your data's maximum possible and minimum possible values based on current info residing in your data. If a new data point trespasses limits, it means that a significant change in the data-generating process has happened, for sure, not probably—a confirmed structural break.
And finally we use time and volume weighting to include order & process intensity information in our model.
I can't stress it enough: despite the popularity of these non-weighted methods applied in mainstream open-access time series modeling, it doesn’t make ANY sense to use non-weighted calculations on time series data . Time = sequence, it matters. If you reverse your time series horizontally, your means, percentiles, whatever, will stay the same. Basically, your calculations will give the same results on different data. When you do it, you disregard the order of data that does have order naturally. Does it make any sense to you? It also concerns regressions applied on time series as well, because even despite the slope being opposite on your reversed data, the centroid (through which your regression line always comes through) will be the same. It also might concern Fourier (yes, you can do weighted Fourier) and even MA and AR models—might, because I ain’t researched it extensively yet.
I still can’t believe it’s nowhere online in open access. No chance I’m the first one who got it. It’s literally in front of everyone’s eyes for centuries—why no one tells about it?
How to use
That’s easy: can be applied to any, even non-stationary and/or heteroscedastic time series to automatically detect novelties, outliers, anomalies, structural breaks, etc. In terms of quant trading, you can try using extensions for mean reversion trades and limits for emergency exits, for example. The market-making application is kinda obvious as well.
The only parameter the model has is length, and it should NOT be optimized but picked consciously based on the process/system you’re applying it to and based on the task. However, this part is not about sharing info & an open-access instrument with the world. This is about using dem instruments to do actual business, and we can’t talk about it.
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Machine Learning RSI [BackQuant]Machine Learning RSI
The Machine Learning RSI is a cutting-edge trading indicator that combines the power of Relative Strength Index (RSI) with Machine Learning (ML) clustering techniques to dynamically determine overbought and oversold thresholds. This advanced indicator adapts to market conditions in real-time, offering traders a robust tool for identifying optimal entry and exit points with increased precision.
Core Concept: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The RSI is a well-known momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements, oscillating between 0 and 100. Typically, RSI values above 70 are considered overbought, and values below 30 are considered oversold. However, static thresholds may not be effective in all market conditions.
This script enhances the RSI by integrating a dynamic thresholding system powered by Machine Learning clustering, allowing it to adapt thresholds based on historical RSI behavior and market context.
Machine Learning Clustering for Dynamic Thresholds
The Machine Learning (ML) component uses clustering to calculate dynamic thresholds for overbought and oversold levels. Instead of relying on fixed RSI levels, this indicator clusters historical RSI values into three groups using a percentile-based initialization and iterative optimization:
Cluster 1: Represents lower RSI values (typically associated with oversold conditions).
Cluster 2: Represents mid-range RSI values.
Cluster 3: Represents higher RSI values (typically associated with overbought conditions).
Dynamic thresholds are determined as follows:
Long Threshold: The upper centroid value of Cluster 3.
Short Threshold: The lower centroid value of Cluster 1.
This approach ensures that the indicator adapts to the current market regime, providing more accurate signals in volatile or trending conditions.
Smoothing Options for RSI
To further enhance the effectiveness of the RSI, this script allows traders to apply various smoothing methods to the RSI calculation, including:
Simple Moving Average (SMA)
Exponential Moving Average (EMA)
Weighted Moving Average (WMA)
Hull Moving Average (HMA)
Linear Regression (LINREG)
Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA)
Triple Exponential Moving Average (TEMA)
Adaptive Linear Moving Average (ALMA)
T3 Moving Average
Traders can select their preferred smoothing method and adjust the smoothing period to suit their trading style and market conditions. The option to smooth the RSI reduces noise and makes the indicator more reliable for detecting trends and reversals.
Long and Short Signals
The indicator generates long and short signals based on the relationship between the RSI value and the dynamic thresholds:
Long Signals: Triggered when the RSI crosses above the long threshold, signaling bullish momentum.
Short Signals: Triggered when the RSI falls below the short threshold, signaling bearish momentum.
These signals are dynamically adjusted to reflect real-time market conditions, making them more robust than static RSI signals.
Visualization and Clustering Insights
The Machine Learning RSI provides an intuitive and visually rich interface, including:
RSI Line: Plotted in real-time, color-coded based on its position relative to the dynamic thresholds (green for long, red for short, gray for neutral).
Dynamic Threshold Lines: The script plots the long and short thresholds calculated by the ML clustering process, providing a clear visual reference for overbought and oversold levels.
Cluster Plots: Each RSI cluster is displayed with distinct colors (green, orange, and red) to give traders insights into how RSI values are grouped and how the dynamic thresholds are derived.
Customization Options
The Machine Learning RSI is highly customizable, allowing traders to tailor the indicator to their preferences:
RSI Settings : Adjust the RSI length, source price, and smoothing method to match your trading strategy.
Threshold Settings : Define the range and step size for clustering thresholds, allowing you to fine-tune the clustering process.
Optimization Settings : Control the performance memory, maximum clustering steps, and maximum data points for ML calculations to ensure optimal performance.
UI Settings : Customize the appearance of the RSI plot, dynamic thresholds, and cluster plots. Traders can also enable or disable candle coloring based on trend direction.
Alerts and Automation
To assist traders in staying on top of market movements, the script includes alert conditions for key events:
Long Signal: When the RSI crosses above the long threshold.
Short Signal: When the RSI crosses below the short threshold.
These alerts can be configured to notify traders in real-time, enabling timely decisions without constant chart monitoring.
Trading Applications
The Machine Learning RSI is versatile and can be applied to various trading strategies, including:
Trend Following: By dynamically adjusting thresholds, this indicator is effective in identifying and following trends in real-time.
Reversal Trading: The ML clustering process helps identify extreme RSI levels, offering reliable signals for reversals.
Range-Bound Trading: The dynamic thresholds adapt to market conditions, making the indicator suitable for trading in sideways markets where static thresholds often fail.
Final Thoughts
The Machine Learning RSI represents a significant advancement in RSI-based trading indicators. By integrating Machine Learning clustering techniques, this script overcomes the limitations of static thresholds, providing dynamic, adaptive signals that respond to market conditions in real-time. With its robust visualization, customizable settings, and alert capabilities, this indicator is a powerful tool for traders seeking to enhance their momentum analysis and improve decision-making.
As always, thorough backtesting and integration into a broader trading strategy are recommended to maximize the effectiveness!
Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrendOverview:
Introducing the Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrend – a groundbreaking trading indicator designed to adapt dynamically to market conditions using market entropy. This enhanced SuperTrend indicator adjusts its sensitivity according to the level of chaos (or order) in price movements, providing more stable signals during volatile periods and more responsive signals when the market becomes orderly.
Key Features:
Entropy-Adaptive Mechanism: By incorporating an entropy measure, this indicator estimates the degree of unpredictability in the market. During high entropy periods (more chaotic), signals are made less sensitive, while during low entropy periods, the indicator reacts more quickly to price changes.
Adaptive ATR Multiplier: Unlike traditional SuperTrend indicators that use a fixed ATR multiplier, this version calculates a dynamic ATR multiplier based on the entropy score, ensuring more flexibility and adaptability in setting stop levels.
Visual Clarity: The indicator is overlayed on the price chart with customizable visual elements. The bullish and bearish trends are color-coded for ease of use, and optional entry signals ("L" for long and "S" for short) are plotted to clearly mark potential entry opportunities.
Alerts for Key Opportunities : Never miss an opportunity with built-in alerts for buy and sell signals. Traders can easily configure these alerts to be notified instantly when market conditions trigger a new trend.
How It Works:
Entropy Calculation: The entropy of the price data is calculated over a user-defined period, giving an indication of the degree of randomness in the price movements. The result is then smoothed to reduce noise and create a meaningful trend indication.
Dynamic ATR Adjustment: The ATR (Average True Range) multiplier, which controls the distance of the trailing stop, is adjusted based on the entropy score. This allows the SuperTrend line to widen in chaotic times, reducing false signals, while tightening in orderly times, allowing quicker trend captures.
Parameters Explained:
Entropy Settings: Control the sensitivity of entropy calculations, including the look-back period, number of bins for price distribution, and smoothing length.
Adaptive Settings: Adjust how the indicator adapts to different levels of entropy, including the adaptation period and the filtering weight.
SuperTrend Settings : Customize the ATR period and the dynamic multiplier range to fine-tune the trailing stops for your trading style.
Visual Settings: Choose your preferred colors for bullish and bearish trends, and decide if you want the entry labels displayed directly on the chart.
Use Cases:
Swing Traders can utilize the indicator to capture trend reversals while filtering out the noise during high entropy periods.
Intraday Traders can adapt the settings for shorter time frames to benefit from dynamic adjustments that reduce overtrading and false signals.
Risk Management: The entropy-based adaptive feature provides an edge in risk management by reducing sensitivity during times of increased chaos, thus helping to limit unnecessary trades.
How to Use It:
Look for entry labels ("L" for long, "S" for short) to identify potential opportunities.
Use the color-coded trendlines to determine market bias: greenish hue for bullish trends, reddish hue for bearish trends.
Customize the input settings to align with your preferred market timeframe and risk profile.
Alerts & Notifications:
Built-in alerts notify you of significant trend changes. Simply enable these alerts to receive updates when a new long or short opportunity is detected, helping you stay ahead without needing to watch the screen constantly.
Customization Tips:
Longer Timeframes : Increase the Entropy Period to better capture macro trends in high timeframe charts.
Higher Volatility Markets: Increase the ATR Max Multiplier to ensure stops are set farther away during high entropy.
Lower Volatility Markets: Use a lower ATR Base Multiplier and tighter entropy thresholds to capture rapid price movements.
Final Thoughts:
The Entropy-Based Adaptive SuperTrend indicator merges traditional trend-following logic with an adaptive mechanism driven by market entropy, aiming to address the challenges of whipsaws and false signals common in conventional SuperTrend setups. This indicator offers an intelligent and flexible way to track market trends, suitable for both beginners and experienced trade
PDF Smoothed Moving Average [BackQuant]PDF Smoothed Moving Average
Introducing BackQuant’s PDF Smoothed Moving Average (PDF-MA) — an innovative trading indicator that applies Probability Density Function (PDF) weighting to moving averages, creating a unique, trend-following tool that offers adaptive smoothing to price movements. This advanced indicator gives traders an edge by blending PDF-weighted values with conventional moving averages, helping to capture trend shifts with enhanced clarity.
Core Concept: Probability Density Function (PDF) Smoothing
The Probability Density Function (PDF) provides a mathematical approach to applying adaptive weighting to data points based on a specified variance and mean. In the PDF-MA indicator, the PDF function is used to weight price data, adding a layer of probabilistic smoothing that enhances the detection of trend strength while reducing noise.
The PDF weights are controlled by two key parameters:
Variance: Determines the spread of the weights, where higher values spread out the weighting effect, providing broader smoothing.
Mean : Centers the weights around a particular price value, influencing the trend’s directionality and sensitivity.
These PDF weights are applied to each price point over the chosen period, creating an adaptive and smooth moving average that more closely reflects the underlying price trend.
Blending PDF with Standard Moving Averages
To further improve the PDF-MA, this indicator combines the PDF-weighted average with a traditional moving average, selected by the user as either an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) or Simple Moving Average (SMA). This blended approach leverages the strengths of each method: the responsiveness of PDF smoothing and the robustness of conventional moving averages.
Smoothing Method: Traders can choose between EMA and SMA for the additional moving average layer. The EMA is more responsive to recent prices, while the SMA provides a consistent average across the selected period.
Smoothing Period: Controls the length of the lookback period, affecting how sensitive the average is to price changes.
The result is a PDF-MA that provides a reliable trend line, reflecting both the PDF weighting and traditional moving average values, ideal for use in trend-following and momentum-based strategies.
Trend Detection and Candle Coloring
The PDF-MA includes a built-in trend detection feature that dynamically colors candles based on the direction of the smoothed moving average:
Uptrend: When the PDF-MA value is increasing, the trend is considered bullish, and candles are colored green, indicating potential buying conditions.
Downtrend: When the PDF-MA value is decreasing, the trend is considered bearish, and candles are colored red, signaling potential selling or shorting conditions.
These color-coded candles provide a quick visual reference for the trend direction, helping traders make real-time decisions based on the current market trend.
Customization and Visualization Options
This indicator offers a range of customization options, allowing traders to tailor it to their specific preferences and trading environment:
Price Source : Choose the price data for calculation, with options like close, open, high, low, or HLC3.
Variance and Mean : Fine-tune the PDF weighting parameters to control the indicator’s sensitivity and responsiveness to price data.
Smoothing Method : Select either EMA or SMA to customize the conventional moving average layer used in conjunction with the PDF.
Smoothing Period : Set the lookback period for the moving average, with a longer period providing more stability and a shorter period offering greater sensitivity.
Candle Coloring : Enable or disable candle coloring based on trend direction, providing additional clarity in identifying bullish and bearish phases.
Trading Applications
The PDF Smoothed Moving Average can be applied across various trading strategies and timeframes:
Trend Following : By smoothing price data with PDF weighting, this indicator helps traders identify long-term trends while filtering out short-term noise.
Reversal Trading : The PDF-MA’s trend coloring feature can help pinpoint potential reversal points by showing shifts in the trend direction, allowing traders to enter or exit positions at optimal moments.
Swing Trading : The PDF-MA provides a clear trend line that swing traders can use to capture intermediate price moves, following the trend direction until it shifts.
Final Thoughts
The PDF Smoothed Moving Average is a highly adaptable indicator that combines probabilistic smoothing with traditional moving averages, providing a nuanced view of market trends. By integrating PDF-based weighting with the flexibility of EMA or SMA smoothing, this indicator offers traders an advanced tool for trend analysis that adapts to changing market conditions with reduced lag and increased accuracy.
Whether you’re trading trends, reversals, or swings, the PDF-MA offers valuable insights into the direction and strength of price movements, making it a versatile addition to any trading strategy.
Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI [BackQuant]Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI
Introducing BackQuant's Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI, a cutting-edge indicator that enhances the classic Relative Strength Index (RSI) by applying both a Savitzky-Golay filter and a median filter to provide smoother and more reliable signals. This advanced approach helps reduce noise and captures true momentum trends with greater precision. Let’s break down how the indicator works, the features it offers, and how it can improve your trading strategy.
Core Concept: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a widely used momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between 0 and 100, with levels above 70 typically indicating overbought conditions and levels below 30 indicating oversold conditions. However, the standard RSI can sometimes generate noisy signals, especially in volatile markets, making it challenging to identify reliable entry and exit points.
To improve upon the traditional RSI, this indicator introduces two powerful filters: the Savitzky-Golay filter and a median filter.
Savitzky-Golay Filter: Smoothing with Precision
The Savitzky-Golay filter is a digital filtering technique used to smooth data while preserving important features, such as peaks and trends. Unlike simple moving averages that can distort important price data, the Savitzky-Golay filter uses polynomial regression to fit the data, providing a more accurate and less lagging result.
In this script, the Savitzky-Golay filter is applied to the RSI values to smooth out short-term fluctuations and provide a more reliable signal. By using a window size of 5 and a polynomial degree of 2, the filter effectively reduces noise without compromising the integrity of the underlying price movements.
Median Filter: Reducing Outliers
After applying the Savitzky-Golay filter, the median filter is applied to the smoothed RSI values. The median filter is particularly effective at removing short-lived outliers, further enhancing the accuracy of the RSI by reducing the impact of sudden and temporary price spikes or drops. This combination of filters creates an ultra-smooth RSI that is better suited for detecting true market trends.
Long and Short Signals
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI generates long and short signals based on user-defined threshold levels:
Long Signals: A long signal is triggered when the filtered RSI exceeds the Long Threshold (default set at 176). This indicates that momentum is shifting upward, and it may present a good buying opportunity.
Short Signals: A short signal is generated when the filtered RSI falls below the Short Threshold (default set at 162). This suggests that momentum is weakening, potentially signaling a selling opportunity or exit from a long position.
These threshold levels can be adjusted to suit different market conditions and timeframes, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity of the indicator.
Customization and Visualization Options
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI comes with several customization options, enabling traders to tailor the indicator to their specific needs:
Calculation Source: Select the price source for the RSI calculation (default is OHLC4, but it can be changed to close, open, high, or low prices).
RSI Period: Adjust the lookback period for the RSI calculation (default is 14).
Median Filter Length: Control the length of the median filter applied to the smoothed RSI, affecting how much noise is removed from the signal.
Threshold Levels: Customize the long and short thresholds to define the sensitivity for generating buy and sell signals.
UI Settings: Choose whether to display the RSI and thresholds on the chart, color the bars according to trend direction, and adjust the line width and colors used for long and short signals.
Visual Feedback: Color-Coded Signals and Thresholds
To make the signals easier to interpret, the indicator offers visual feedback by coloring the price bars and the RSI plot according to the current market trend:
Green Bars indicate long signals when momentum is bullish.
Red Bars indicate short signals when momentum is bearish.
Gray Bars indicate neutral or undecided conditions when no clear signal is present.
In addition, the Long and Short Thresholds can be plotted directly on the chart to provide a clear reference for when signals are triggered, allowing traders to visually gauge the strength of the RSI relative to its thresholds.
Alerts for Automation
For traders who prefer automated notifications, the Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI includes built-in alert conditions for long and short signals. You can configure these alerts to notify you when a buy or sell condition is met, ensuring you never miss a trading opportunity.
Trading Applications
This indicator is versatile and can be used in a variety of trading strategies:
Trend Following: The combination of Savitzky-Golay and median filtering makes this RSI particularly useful for identifying strong trends without being misled by short-term noise. Traders can use the long and short signals to enter trades in the direction of the prevailing trend.
Reversal Trading: By adjusting the threshold levels, traders can use this indicator to spot potential reversals. When the RSI moves from overbought to oversold levels (or vice versa), it may signal a shift in market direction.
Swing Trading: The smoothed RSI provides a clear signal for short to medium-term price movements, making it an excellent tool for swing traders looking to capitalize on momentum shifts.
Risk Management: The filtered RSI can be used as part of a broader risk management strategy, helping traders avoid false signals and stay in trades only when the momentum is strong.
Final Thoughts
The Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI takes the classic RSI to the next level by applying advanced smoothing techniques that reduce noise and improve signal reliability. Whether you’re a trend follower, swing trader, or reversal trader, this indicator provides a more refined approach to momentum analysis, helping you make better-informed trading decisions.
As with all indicators, it is important to backtest thoroughly and incorporate sound risk management strategies when using the Savitzky Golay Median Filtered RSI in your trading system.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Adaptive Gaussian MA For Loop [BackQuant]Adaptive Gaussian MA For Loop
PLEASE Read the following carefully before applying this indicator to your trading system. Knowing the core logic behind the tools you're using allows you to integrate them into your strategy with confidence and precision.
Introducing BackQuant's Adaptive Gaussian Moving Average For Loop (AGMA FL) — a sophisticated trading indicator that merges the Gaussian Moving Average (GMA) with adaptive volatility to provide dynamic trend analysis. This unique indicator further enhances its effectiveness by utilizing a for-loop scoring mechanism to detect potential shifts in market direction. Let's dive into the components, the rationale behind them, and how this indicator can be practically applied to your trading strategies.
Understanding the Gaussian Moving Average (GMA)
The Gaussian Moving Average (GMA) is a smoothed moving average that applies Gaussian weighting to price data. Gaussian weighting gives more significance to data points near the center of the lookback window, making the GMA particularly effective at reducing noise while maintaining sensitivity to changes in price direction. In contrast to simpler moving averages like the SMA or EMA, GMA provides a more refined smoothing function, which can help traders follow the true trend in volatile markets.
In this script, the GMA is calculated over a defined Calculation Period (default 14), applying a Gaussian filter to smooth out market fluctuations and provide a clearer view of underlying trends.
Adaptive Volatility: A Dynamic Edge
The Adaptive feature in this indicator gives it the ability to adjust its sensitivity based on current market volatility. If the Adaptive option is enabled, the GMA uses a standard deviation-based volatility measure (with a default period of 20) to dynamically adjust the width of the Gaussian filter, allowing the GMA to react faster in volatile markets and more slowly in calm conditions. This dynamic nature ensures that the GMA stays relevant across different market environments.
When the Adaptive setting is disabled, the script defaults to a constant standard deviation value (default 1.0), providing a more stable but less responsive smoothing function.
Why Use Adaptive Gaussian Moving Average?
The Gaussian Moving Average already provides smoother results than standard moving averages, but by adding an adaptive component, the indicator becomes even more responsive to real-time price changes. In fast-moving or highly volatile markets, this adaptation allows traders to react quicker to emerging trends. Conversely, in quieter markets, it reduces over-sensitivity to minor fluctuations, thus lowering the risk of false signals.
For-Loop Scoring Mechanism
The heart of this indicator lies in its for-loop scoring system, which evaluates the smoothed price data (the GMA) over a specified range, comparing it to previous values. This scoring system assigns a numerical value based on whether the current GMA is higher or lower than previous values, creating a trend score.
Long Signals: These are generated when the for-loop score surpasses the Long Threshold (default set at 40), signaling that the GMA is gaining upward momentum, potentially identifying a favorable buying opportunity.
Short Signals: These are triggered when the score crosses below the Short Threshold (default set at -10), indicating that the market may be losing strength and that a selling or shorting opportunity could be emerging.
Thresholds & Customization Options
This indicator offers a high degree of flexibility, allowing you to fine-tune the settings according to your trading style and risk preferences:
Calculation Period: Adjust the lookback period for the Gaussian filter, affecting how smooth or responsive the indicator is to price changes.
Adaptive Mode: Toggle the adaptive feature on or off, allowing the GMA to dynamically adjust based on market volatility or remain consistent with a fixed standard deviation.
Volatility Settings: Control the standard deviation period for adaptive mode, fine-tuning how quickly the GMA responds to shifts in volatility.
For-Loop Settings: Modify the start and end points for the for-loop score calculation, adjusting the depth of analysis for trend signals.
Thresholds for Signals: Set custom long and short thresholds to determine when buy or sell signals should be generated.
Visualization Options: Choose to color bars based on trend direction, plot signal lines, or adjust the background color to reflect current market sentiment visually.
Trading Applications
The Adaptive Gaussian MA For Loop can be applied to a variety of trading styles and markets. Here are some key ways you can use this indicator in practice:
Trend Following: The combination of Gaussian smoothing and adaptive volatility helps traders stay on top of market trends, identifying significant momentum shifts while filtering out noise. The for-loop scoring system enhances this by providing a numerical representation of trend strength, making it easier to spot when a new trend is emerging or when an existing one is gaining strength.
Mean Reversion: For traders looking to capitalize on short-term market corrections, the adaptive nature of this indicator makes it easier to identify when price action is deviating too far from its smoothed trend, allowing for strategic entries and exits based on overbought or oversold conditions.
Swing Trading: With its ability to capture medium-term price movements while avoiding the noise of short-term fluctuations, this indicator is well-suited for swing traders who aim to profit from market reversals or short-to-mid-term trends.
Volatility Management: The adaptive feature allows the indicator to adjust dynamically in volatile markets, ensuring that it remains responsive in times of increased uncertainty while avoiding unnecessary noise in calmer periods. This makes it an effective tool for traders who want to manage risk by staying in tune with changing market conditions.
Final Thoughts
The Adaptive Gaussian MA For Loop is a powerful and flexible indicator that merges the elegance of Gaussian smoothing with the adaptability of volatility-based adjustments. By incorporating a for-loop scoring mechanism, this indicator provides traders with a comprehensive view of market trends and potential trade opportunities.
It’s important to test the settings on historical data and adapt them to your specific trading style, timeframe, and market conditions. As with any technical tool, the AGMA For Loop should be used in conjunction with other indicators and solid risk management practices for the best results.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Two Pole Butterworth For Loop [BackQuant]Two Pole Butterworth For Loop
PLEASE read the following carefully, as understanding the underlying concepts and logic behind the indicator is key to incorporating it into your trading system in a sound and methodical manner.
Introducing BackQuant's Two Pole Butterworth For Loop (2P BW FL) — an advanced indicator that fuses the power of the Two Pole Butterworth filter with a dynamic for-loop scoring mechanism. This unique approach is designed to extract actionable trading signals by smoothing out price data and then analyzing it using a comparative scoring method. Let's delve into how this indicator works, why it was created, and how it can be used in various trading scenarios.
Understanding the Two Pole Butterworth Filter
The Butterworth filter is a signal processing tool known for its smooth response and minimal distortion. It's often used in electronic and communication systems to filter out unwanted noise. In trading, the Butterworth filter can be applied to price data to smooth out the volatility, providing traders with a clearer view of underlying trends without the whipsaws often associated with market noise.
The Two Pole Butterworth variant further enhances this effect by applying the filter with two poles, effectively creating a sharper transition between the passband and stopband. In simple terms, this allows the filter to follow the price action more closely, reacting to changes while maintaining smoothness.
In this script, the Two Pole Butterworth filter is applied to the Calculation Source (default is set to the closing price), creating a smoothed price series that serves as the foundation for further analysis.
Why Use a Two Pole Butterworth Filter?
The Two Pole Butterworth filter is chosen for its ability to reduce lag while maintaining a smooth output. This makes it an ideal choice for traders who want to capture trends without being misled by short-term volatility or market noise. By filtering the price data, the Two Pole Butterworth enables traders to focus on the broader market movements and avoid false signals.
The For-Loop Scoring Mechanism
In addition to the Butterworth filter, this script uses a for-loop scoring system to evaluate the smoothed price data. The for-loop compares the current value of the filtered price (referred to as "subject") to previous values over a defined range (set by the start and end input). The score is calculated based on whether the subject is higher or lower than the previous points, and the cumulative score is used to determine the strength of the trend.
Long and Short Signal Logic
Long Signals: A long signal is triggered when the score surpasses the Long Threshold (default set at 40). This suggests that the price has built sufficient upward momentum, indicating a potential buying opportunity.
Short Signals: A short signal is triggered when the score crosses under the Short Threshold (default set at -10). This indicates weakening price action or a potential downtrend, signaling a possible selling or shorting opportunity.
By utilizing this scoring system, the indicator identifies moments when the price momentum is shifting, helping traders enter positions at opportune times.
Customization and Visualization Options
One of the strengths of this indicator is its flexibility. Traders can customize various settings to fit their personal trading style or adapt it to different markets and timeframes:
Calculation Periods: Adjust the lookback period for the Butterworth filter, allowing for shorter or longer smoothing depending on the desired sensitivity.
Threshold Levels: Set the long and short thresholds to define when signals should be triggered, giving you control over the balance between sensitivity and specificity.
Signal Line Width and Colors: Customize the visual presentation of the indicator on the chart, including the width of the signal line and the colors used for long and short conditions.
Candlestick and Background Colors: If desired, the indicator can color the candlesticks or the background according to the detected trend, offering additional clarity at a glance.
Trading Applications
This Two Pole Butterworth For Loop indicator is versatile and can be adapted to various market conditions and trading strategies. Here are a few use cases where this indicator shines:
Trend Following: The Butterworth filter smooths the price data, making it easier to follow trends and identify when they are gaining or losing strength. The for-loop scoring system enhances this by providing a clear indication of how strong the current trend is compared to recent history.
Mean Reversion: For traders looking to identify potential reversals, the indicator’s ability to compare the filtered price to previous values over a range of periods allows it to spot moments when the trend may be losing steam, potentially signaling a reversal.
Swing Trading: The combination of smoothing and scoring allows swing traders to capture short to medium-term price movements by filtering out the noise and focusing on significant shifts in momentum.
Risk Management: By providing clear long and short signals, this indicator helps traders manage their risk by offering well-defined entry and exit points. The smooth nature of the Butterworth filter also reduces the risk of getting caught in false signals due to market noise.
Final Thoughts
The Two Pole Butterworth For Loop indicator offers traders a powerful combination of smoothing and scoring to detect meaningful trends and shifts in price momentum. Whether you are a trend follower, swing trader, or someone looking to refine your entry and exit points, this indicator provides the tools to make more informed trading decisions.
As always, it's essential to backtest the indicator on historical data and tailor the settings to your specific trading style and market. While the Butterworth filter helps reduce noise and smooth trends, no indicator can predict the future with absolute certainty, so it should be used in conjunction with other tools and sound risk management practices.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Kalman PSaR [BackQuant]Kalman PSaR
Overview and Innovation
The Kalman PSaR combines the well-known Parabolic SAR (PSaR) with the advanced smoothing capabilities of the Kalman Filter . This innovative tool aims to enhance the traditional PSaR by integrating Kalman filtering, which reduces noise and improves trend detection. The Kalman PSaR adapts dynamically to price movements, making it a highly effective indicator for spotting trend shifts while minimizing the impact of false signals caused by market volatility.
Please Find the Basic Kalman Here:
Kalman Filter Dynamics
The Kalman Filter is a powerful algorithm for estimating the true value of a system amidst noisy data. In the Kalman PSaR, this filter is applied to the high, low, and closing prices, resulting in a smoother and more accurate representation of price action. The filter’s parameters—process noise and measurement noise—are customizable, allowing traders to fine-tune the sensitivity of the indicator to market conditions. By reducing the impact of noise, the Kalman-filtered PSaR offers clearer signals for identifying trend reversals and continuations.
Enhanced PSaR Calculation
The traditional Parabolic SAR is a popular trend-following indicator that highlights potential entry and exit points based on price acceleration. In the Kalman PSaR, this calculation is enhanced by the Kalman-filtered prices, providing a smoother and more reliable signal. The indicator continuously updates based on the acceleration factor and max step values, while the Kalman filter ensures that sudden price spikes or market noise do not trigger false signals.
Min Step and Max Step: These settings control the sensitivity of the PSaR. The Min Step sets the initial acceleration factor, while the Max Step limits how fast the PSaR adapts to price changes, helping traders fine-tune the indicator’s responsiveness.
Optional Smoothing Techniques To further enhance the signal clarity, the Kalman PSaR includes an optional smoothing feature. Traders can choose from various smoothing methods, such as SMA, Hull, EMA, WMA, TEMA, and more, to reduce short-term fluctuations and emphasize the underlying trend. The smoothing period is customizable, allowing traders to adjust the indicator’s behavior according to their preferred trading style and timeframe.
Color-Coded Candle Painting The Kalman PSaR features color-coded candles that change according to the trend direction. When the price is above the PSaR, candles are painted green to indicate a long trend, and when the price is below the PSaR, candles are painted red to signal a short trend. This visual representation makes it easy to interpret market sentiment at a glance, improving decision-making speed during fast-moving markets.
Key Features and Customization
Kalman Filter Customization: The process noise and measurement noise parameters allow traders to adjust how aggressively the filter adapts to price changes, making it suitable for both volatile and stable markets.
Smoothing Options: A variety of moving average types, such as SMA, Hull, EMA, and more, can be applied to smooth the PSaR values, ensuring that the signal remains clear even in choppy markets.
Dynamic Trend Detection: The Kalman PSaR dynamically updates based on price movements, helping traders spot trend reversals early while filtering out false signals caused by short-term volatility.
Bar Coloring and PSaR Plotting: Traders can choose to color candles based on trend direction or plot the PSaR directly on the chart for additional visual clarity.
Practical Applications
Trend-Following Strategies: The Kalman PSaR excels in trend-following strategies by providing timely signals of trend changes. The dynamic nature of the indicator allows traders to capture significant price movements while avoiding market noise.
Reversal Identification: The indicator’s ability to filter out noise and provide smoother signals makes it ideal for identifying reversals in volatile markets.
Risk Management: By plotting clear stop levels based on the PSaR, traders can use this indicator to effectively manage risk, placing stop-loss orders at key points based on the trend direction.
Conclusion
The Kalman PSaR is a fusion of the classic Parabolic SAR and the Kalman filter, offering enhanced trend detection with reduced noise. Its customizable filtering and smoothing options, combined with dynamic trend-following capabilities, make it a versatile tool for traders seeking to improve their timing and signal accuracy. The adaptive nature of the Kalman filter, combined with the robust PSaR logic, helps traders stay on the right side of the market and manage risk more effectively.
DEMA Adaptive DMI [BackQuant]DEMA Adaptive DMI
PLEASE Read the following, knowing what an indicator does at its core before adding it into a system is pivotal. The core concepts can allow you to include it in a logical and sound manner.
Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
The DEMA Adaptive DMI blends the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) with the Directional Movement Index (DMI) to offer a unique approach to trend-following. By applying DEMA to the high and low prices, this indicator refines the traditional DMI calculation, enhancing its responsiveness to price changes. This results in a more adaptive and timely measure of market trends and momentum, providing traders with a more refined tool for capturing directional movements in the market.
Technical Composition and Calculation
At its core, the DEMA Adaptive DMI calculates the DEMA for both the high and low prices over a user-defined period. This dual application of DEMA serves to smooth out price fluctuations while retaining sensitivity to market movements. The DMI is then derived from the changes in these DEMA values, producing a set of plus and minus directional indicators that reflect the prevailing trend. Additionally, an Average Directional Index (ADX) is computed to measure the strength of the trend, with the entire process being dynamically adjusted based on the DEMA calculations.
DEMA Application:
The DEMA is applied to both high and low prices to reduce lag and provide a smoother representation of price action.
Directional Movement Calculation: The DMI is calculated using the smoothed price changes, resulting in plus and minus indicators that accurately reflect market trends.
ADX Calculation:
The ADX is computed to quantify the strength of the trend, offering traders insight into whether the market is trending strongly or is in a phase of consolidation.
Features and User Inputs The DEMA Adaptive DMI offers a range of customizable options to suit different trading styles and market conditions:
DEMA Calculation Period: Users can set the period for the DEMA calculation, allowing for adjustments based on the desired sensitivity.
DMI Length: The length of the DMI calculation can be adjusted, providing flexibility in how trends are measured.
ADX Smoothing Period: The smoothing period for the ADX can be customized to fine-tune the trend strength measurement.
Divergence Detection: Optional divergence detection features allow traders to spot potential reversals based on the DMI and price action.
Visualization options include static high and low levels to mark extreme DMI thresholds, the ability to color bars according to trend direction, and background hues to highlight overbought and oversold conditions.
Practical Applications
The DEMA Adaptive DMI is particularly effective in markets where trend strength and direction are crucial for successful trading. Traders can leverage this indicator to:
Identify Trend Reversals:
Detect potential trend reversals by monitoring the DMI and ADX in conjunction with divergence signals.
Trend Confirmation:
Use the DEMA-based DMI to confirm the strength and direction of a trend, aiding in the timing of entries and exits.
Strategic Positioning:
The indicator's responsiveness allows traders to position themselves effectively in fast-moving markets, reducing the risk of late entries or exits.
Advantages and Strategic Value
By integrating the DEMA with the DMI, this indicator provides a more adaptive and timely measure of market trends. The reduced lag from the DEMA ensures that traders receive signals that are closely aligned with current market conditions, while the dynamic DMI calculation offers a more accurate representation of trend direction and strength. This makes the DEMA Adaptive DMI a valuable tool for traders looking to enhance their trend-following strategies with a focus on precision and adaptability.
Summary and Usage Tips
The DEMA Adaptive DMI is a sophisticated trend-following indicator that combines the benefits of DEMA and DMI into a single, powerful tool. Traders are encouraged to incorporate this indicator into their trading systems for a more nuanced and responsive approach to trend detection and confirmation. Whether used for identifying trend reversals, confirming trend strength, or strategically positioning in the market, the DEMA Adaptive DMI offers a versatile and reliable solution for trend-following strategies.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Efficiency Weighted OrderFlow [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the Efficiency Weighted Orderflow Indicator by AlgoAlpha! 📈✨
Elevate your trading game with our cutting-edge Efficiency Weighted Orderflow Indicator, designed to provide clear insights into market trends and potential reversals. This tool is perfect for traders seeking to understand the underlying market dynamics through efficiency-weighted volume calculations.
🌟 Key Features 🌟
✨ Smooth OrderFlow Calculation : Option to smooth order flow data for more consistent signals.
🔧 Customizable Parameters : Adjust the Order Flow Period and HMA Smoothing Length to fit your trading strategy.
🔍 Visual Clarity : Easily distinguish between bullish and bearish trends with customizable colors.
📊 Standard Deviation Normalization : Keeps order flow values normalized for better comparison across different market conditions.
🔔 Trend Reversal Alerts : Stay ahead with built-in alert conditions for significant order flow changes.
🚀 Quick Guide to Using the Efficiency Weighted Orderflow Indicator
🛠 Add the Indicator: Search for "Efficiency Weighted Orderflow " in TradingView's Indicators & Strategies. Customize settings like smoothing and order flow period to fit your trading style.
📊 Market Analysis: Watch for trend reversal alerts to capture trading opportunities by studying the behaviour of the indicator.
🔔 Alerts: Enable notifications for significant order flow changes to stay updated on market trends.
🔍 How It Works
The Efficiency Weighted Orderflow Indicator starts by calculating the efficiency of price movements using the absolute difference between the close and open prices, divided by volume. The order flow is then computed by summing these efficiency-weighted volumes over a specified period, with an option to apply Hull Moving Average (HMA) smoothing for enhanced signal stability. To ensure robust comparison, the order flow is normalized using standard deviation. The indicator plots these values as columns, with distinct colors representing bullish and bearish trends. Customizable parameters for period length and smoothing allow traders to tailor the indicator to their strategies. Additionally, visual cues and alert conditions for trend reversals and significant order flow changes keep traders informed and ready to act. This indicator improves on the Orderflow aspect of our Standardized Orderflow indicator. The Efficiency Weighted Orderflow is less susceptible to noise and is also quicker at detecting trend changes.
Log Regression Channel [UAlgo]The "Log Regression Channel " channel is useful for analyzing price trends and volatility in a financial instrument over a specified period. By using logarithmic scaling, this indicator can more effectively handle the wide range of price movements seen in many financial markets, making it particularly valuable for assets with exponential growth characteristics.
The indicator plots the central regression line along with upper and lower deviation bands, providing a visual representation of potential support and resistance levels.
🔶 Key Features
Logarithmic Regression Line: The central line represents the logarithmic regression, which fits the price data over the specified length using a logarithmic scale. This helps in identifying the overall trend direction.
Deviation Bands: The upper and lower bands are plotted at a specified multiple of the standard deviation from the regression line, highlighting areas of potential overbought and oversold conditions.
Customizable Parameters: Users can adjust the length of the regression, the deviation multiplier, the color of the labels, and the size of the text labels to suit their preferences.
R-Squared Display: The R-squared value, which measures the goodness of fit of the regression model, is displayed on the chart. This helps traders assess the reliability of the regression line.
🔶 Calculations
The indicator performs several key calculations to plot the logarithmic regression channel:
Logarithmic Transformation: The prices and time indices are transformed using the natural logarithm to handle exponential growth in price data.
Regression Coefficients: The slope and intercept of the regression line are calculated using the least squares method on the transformed data.
Predicted Values: The regression equation is used to calculate predicted values for each data point.
Standard Deviation: The standard deviation of the residuals (differences between actual and predicted values) is computed to determine the width of the deviation bands.
Deviation Bands: Upper and lower bands are plotted at a specified multiple of the standard deviation above and below the regression line.
R-Squared Value: The R-squared value is calculated to measure how well the regression line fits the data. This value is displayed on the chart to inform the user of the model's reliability.
🔶 Disclaimer
The "Log Regression Channel " indicator is provided for educational and informational purposes only.
It is not intended as investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Trading financial instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all investors.
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Users should conduct their own research.
Fourier Adjusted Average True Range [BackQuant]Fourier Adjusted Average True Range
1. Conceptual Foundation and Innovation
The FA-ATR leverages the principles of Fourier analysis to dissect market prices into their constituent cyclical components. By applying Fourier Transform to the price data, the FA-ATR captures the dominant cycles and trends which are often obscured in noisy market data. This integration allows the FA-ATR to adapt its readings based on underlying market dynamics, offering a refined view of volatility that is sensitive to both market direction and momentum.
2. Technical Composition and Calculation
The core of the FA-ATR involves calculating the traditional ATR, which measures market volatility by decomposing the entire range of price movements. The FA-ATR extends this by incorporating a Fourier Transform of price data to assess cyclical patterns over a user-defined period 'N'. This process synthesizes both the magnitude of price changes and their rhythmic occurrences, resulting in a more comprehensive volatility indicator.
Fourier Transform Application: The Fourier series is calculated using price data to identify the fundamental frequency of market movements. This frequency helps in adjusting the ATR to reflect more accurately the current market conditions.
Dynamic Adjustment: The ATR is then adjusted by the magnitude of the dominant cycle from the Fourier analysis, enhancing or reducing the ATR value based on the intensity and phase of market cycles.
3. Features and User Inputs
Customizability: Traders can modify the Fourier period, ATR period, and the multiplication factor to suit different trading styles and market environments.
Visualization : The FA-ATR can be plotted directly on the chart, providing a visual representation of volatility. Additionally, the option to paint candles according to the trend direction enhances the usability and interpretative ease of the indicator.
Confluence with Moving Averages: Optionally, a moving average of the FA-ATR can be displayed, serving as a confluence factor for confirming trends or potential reversals.
4. Practical Applications
The FA-ATR is particularly useful in markets characterized by periodic fluctuations or those that exhibit strong cyclical trends. Traders can utilize this indicator to:
Adjust Stop-Loss Orders: More accurately set stop-loss orders based on a volatility measure that accounts for cyclical market changes.
Trend Confirmation: Use the FA-ATR to confirm trend strength and sustainability, helping to avoid false signals often encountered in volatile markets.
Strategic Entry and Exit: The indicator's responsiveness to changing market dynamics makes it an excellent tool for planning entries and exits in a trend-following or a breakout trading strategy.
5. Advantages and Strategic Value
By integrating Fourier analysis, the FA-ATR provides a volatility measure that is both adaptive and anticipatory, giving traders a forward-looking tool that adjusts to changes before they become apparent through traditional indicators. This anticipatory feature makes it an invaluable asset for traders looking to gain an edge in fast-paced and rapidly changing market conditions.
6. Summary and Usage Tips
The Fourier Adjusted Average True Range is a cutting-edge development in technical analysis, offering traders an enhanced tool for assessing market volatility with increased accuracy and responsiveness. Its ability to adapt to the market's cyclical nature makes it particularly useful for those trading in highly volatile or cyclically influenced markets.
Traders are encouraged to integrate the FA-ATR into their trading systems as a supplementary tool to improve risk management and decision-making accuracy, thereby potentially increasing the effectiveness of their trading strategies.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Kalman Hull RSI [BackQuant]Kalman Hull RSI
At its core, this indicator uses a Kalman filter of price, put inside of a hull moving average function (replacing the weighted moving averages) and then using that as a price source for the the RSI, very similar to the Kalman Hull Supertrend just processing price for a different indicator.
This also allows it to make it more adaptive to price and also sensitive to recent price action. This indicator is also mainly built for trend-following systems
PLEASE Read the following, knowing what an indicator does at its core before adding it into a system is pivotal. The core concepts can allow you to include it in a logical and sound manner.
1. What is a Kalman Filter
The Kalman Filter is an algorithm renowned for its efficiency in estimating the states of a linear dynamic system amidst noisy data. It excels in real-time data processing, making it indispensable in fields requiring precise and adaptive filtering, such as aerospace, robotics, and financial market analysis. By leveraging its predictive capabilities, traders can significantly enhance their market analysis, particularly in estimating price movements more accurately.
If you would like this on its own, with a more in-depth description please see our Kalman Price Filter.
OR our Kalman Hull Supertrend
2. Hull Moving Average (HMA) and Its Core Calculation
The Hull Moving Average (HMA) improves on traditional moving averages by combining the Weighted Moving Average's (WMA) smoothness and reduced lag. Its core calculation involves taking the WMA of the data set and doubling it, then subtracting the WMA of the full period, followed by applying another WMA on the result over the square root of the period's length. This methodology yields a smoother and more responsive moving average, particularly useful for identifying market trends more rapidly.
3. Combining Kalman Filter with HMA
The innovative combination of the Kalman Filter with the Hull Moving Average (KHMA) offers a unique approach to smoothing price data. By applying the Kalman Filter to the price source before its incorporation into the HMA formula, we enhance the adaptiveness and responsiveness of the moving average. This adaptive smoothing method reduces noise more effectively and adjusts more swiftly to price changes, providing traders with clearer signals for market entries or exits.
The calculation is like so:
KHMA(_src, _length) =>
f_kalman(2 * f_kalman(_src, _length / 2) - f_kalman(_src, _length), math.round(math.sqrt(_length)))
Use Case
The Kalman Hull RSI is particularly suited for traders who require a highly adaptive indicator that can respond to rapid market changes without the excessive noise associated with typical RSI calculations. It can be effectively used in markets with high volatility where traditional indicators might lag or produce misleading signals.
Application in a Trading System
The Kalman Hull RSI is versatile in application, suitable for:
Trend Identification: Quickly identify potential reversals or confirmations of existing trends.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: Utilize the dynamic RSI thresholds to pinpoint potential entry and exit points, adapting to current market conditions.
Risk Management: Enhance trading strategies by integrating a more reliable measure of momentum, which can lead to improved stop-loss placements and exit strategies.
Core Calculations and Benefits
Dynamic State Estimation: By applying the Kalman Filter, the indicator continually adjusts its calculations based on incoming price data, providing a real-time, smoothed response to price movements.
Reduced Lag: The integration with HMA significantly reduces lag, offering quicker responses to price changes than traditional moving averages or RSI alone.
Increased Accuracy: The dual filtering effect minimizes the impact of price spikes and noise, leading to more accurate signaling for trades.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Volatility Adjusted Weighted DEMA [BackQuant]Volatility Adjusted Weighted DEMA
The Volatility Adjusted Weighted Double Exponential Moving Average (VAWDEMA) by BackQuant is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking to integrate volatility into their moving average calculations. This innovative indicator adjusts the weighting of the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) according to recent volatility levels, offering a more dynamic and responsive measure of market trends.
Primarily, the single Moving average is very noisy, but can be used in the context of strategy development, where as the crossover, is best used in the context of defining a trading zone/ macro uptrend on higher timeframes.
Why Volatility Adjustment is Beneficial
Volatility is a fundamental aspect of financial markets, reflecting the intensity of price changes. A volatility adjustment in moving averages is beneficial because it allows the indicator to adapt more quickly during periods of high volatility, providing signals that are more aligned with the current market conditions. This makes the VAWDEMA a versatile tool for identifying trend strength and potential reversal points in more volatile markets.
Understanding DEMA and Its Advantages
DEMA is an indicator that aims to reduce the lag associated with traditional moving averages by applying a double smoothing process. The primary benefit of DEMA is its sensitivity and quicker response to price changes, making it an excellent tool for trend following and momentum trading. Incorporating DEMA into your analysis can help capture trends earlier than with simple moving averages.
The Power of Combining Volatility Adjustment with DEMA
By adjusting the weight of the DEMA based on volatility, the VAWDEMA becomes a powerful hybrid indicator. This combination leverages the quick responsiveness of DEMA while dynamically adjusting its sensitivity based on current market volatility. This results in a moving average that is both swift and adaptive, capable of providing more relevant signals for entering and exiting trades.
Core Logic Behind VAWDEMA
The core logic of the VAWDEMA involves calculating the DEMA for a specified period and then adjusting its weighting based on a volatility measure, such as the average true range (ATR) or standard deviation of price changes. This results in a weighted DEMA that reflects both the direction and the volatility of the market, offering insights into potential trend continuations or reversals.
Utilizing the Crossover in a Trading System
The VAWDEMA crossover occurs when two VAWDEMAs of different lengths cross, signaling potential bullish or bearish market conditions. In a trading system, a crossover can be used as a trigger for entry or exit points:
Bullish Signal: When a shorter-period VAWDEMA crosses above a longer-period VAWDEMA, it may indicate an uptrend, suggesting a potential entry point for a long position.
Bearish Signal: Conversely, when a shorter-period VAWDEMA crosses below a longer-period VAWDEMA, it might signal a downtrend, indicating a possible exit point or a short entry.
Incorporating VAWDEMA crossovers into a trading strategy can enhance decision-making by providing timely and adaptive signals that account for both trend direction and market volatility. Traders should combine these signals with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques to develop a well-rounded trading strategy.
Alert Conditions For Trading
alertcondition(vwdema>vwdema , title="VWDEMA Long", message="VWDEMA Long - {{ticker}} - {{interval}}")
alertcondition(vwdema<vwdema , title="VWDEMA Short", message="VWDEMA Short - {{ticker}} - {{interval}}")
alertcondition(ta.crossover(crossover, 0), title="VWDEMA Crossover Long", message="VWDEMA Crossover Long - {{ticker}} - {{interval}}")
alertcondition(ta.crossunder(crossover, 0), title="VWDEMA Crossover Short", message="VWDEMA Crossover Short - {{ticker}} - {{interval}}")
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Kalman Hull Supertrend [BackQuant]Kalman Hull Supertrend
At its core, this indicator uses a Kalman filter of price, put inside of a hull moving average function (replacing the weighted moving averages) and then using that as a price source for the supertrend instead of the normal hl2 (high+low/2).
Therefore, making it more adaptive to price and also sensitive to recent price action.
PLEASE Read the following, knowing what an indicator does at its core before adding it into a system is pivotal. The core concepts can allow you to include it in a logical and sound manner.
1. What is a Kalman Filter
The Kalman Filter is an algorithm renowned for its efficiency in estimating the states of a linear dynamic system amidst noisy data. It excels in real-time data processing, making it indispensable in fields requiring precise and adaptive filtering, such as aerospace, robotics, and financial market analysis. By leveraging its predictive capabilities, traders can significantly enhance their market analysis, particularly in estimating price movements more accurately.
If you would like this on its own, with a more in-depth description please see our Kalman Price Filter.
2. Hull Moving Average (HMA) and Its Core Calculation
The Hull Moving Average (HMA) improves on traditional moving averages by combining the Weighted Moving Average's (WMA) smoothness and reduced lag. Its core calculation involves taking the WMA of the data set and doubling it, then subtracting the WMA of the full period, followed by applying another WMA on the result over the square root of the period's length. This methodology yields a smoother and more responsive moving average, particularly useful for identifying market trends more rapidly.
3. Combining Kalman Filter with HMA
The innovative combination of the Kalman Filter with the Hull Moving Average (KHMA) offers a unique approach to smoothing price data. By applying the Kalman Filter to the price source before its incorporation into the HMA formula, we enhance the adaptiveness and responsiveness of the moving average. This adaptive smoothing method reduces noise more effectively and adjusts more swiftly to price changes, providing traders with clearer signals for market entries or exits.
The calculation is like so:
KHMA(_src, _length) =>
f_kalman(2 * f_kalman(_src, _length / 2) - f_kalman(_src, _length), math.round(math.sqrt(_length)))
4. Integration with Supertrend
Incorporating this adaptive price smoothing technique into the Supertrend indicator further enhances its efficiency. The Supertrend, known for its proficiency in identifying the prevailing market trend and providing clear buy or sell signals, becomes even more powerful with an adaptive price source. This integration allows the Supertrend to adjust more dynamically to market changes, offering traders more accurate and timely trading signals.
5. Application in a Trading System
In a trading system, the Kalman Hull Supertrend indicator can serve as a critical component for identifying market trends and generating signals for potential entry and exit points. Its adaptiveness and sensitivity to price changes make it particularly useful for traders looking to minimize lag in signal generation and improve the accuracy of their market trend analysis. Whether used as a standalone tool or in conjunction with other indicators, its dynamic nature can significantly enhance trading strategies.
6. Core Calculations and Benefits
The core of this indicator lies in its sophisticated filtering and averaging techniques, starting with the Kalman Filter's predictive adjustments, followed by the adaptive smoothing of the Hull Moving Average, and culminating in the trend-detecting capabilities of the Supertrend. This multi-layered approach not only reduces market noise but also adapts to market volatility more effectively. Benefits include improved signal accuracy, reduced lag, and the ability to discern trend changes more promptly, offering traders a competitive edge.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
DEMA RSI Overlay [BackQuant]DEMA RSI Overlay
PLEASE Read the following, knowing what an indicator does at its core before adding it into a system is pivotal. The core concepts can allow you to include it in a logical and sound manner.
Anyways,
BackQuant's new trading indicator that blends the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to create a unique overlay on the trading chart. This combination is not arbitrary; both the DEMA and RSI are revered for their distinct advantages in trading strategy development. Let's delve into the core components of this script, the rationale behind choosing DEMA and RSI, the logic of long and short signals, and its practical trading applications.
Understanding DEMA
DEMA is an enhanced version of the conventional exponential moving average that aims to reduce the lag inherent in traditional averages. It does this by applying more weight to recent prices. The reduction in lag makes DEMA an excellent tool for tracking price trends more closely. In the context of this script, DEMA serves as the foundation for the RSI calculation, offering a smoother and more responsive signal line that can provide clearer trend indications.
Why DEMA?
DEMA is chosen for its responsiveness to price changes. This characteristic is particularly beneficial in fast-moving markets where entering and exiting positions quickly is crucial. By using DEMA as the price source, the script ensures that the signals generated are timely and reflective of the current market conditions, reducing the risk of entering or exiting a trade based on outdated information.
Integrating RSI
The RSI, a momentum oscillator, measures the speed and change of price movements. It oscillates between zero and 100 and is typically used to identify overbought or oversold conditions. In this script, the RSI is calculated based on DEMA, which means it inherits the responsiveness of DEMA, allowing traders to spot potential reversals or continuation signals sooner.
Why RSI?
Incorporating RSI offers a measure of price momentum and market conditions relative to past performance. By setting thresholds for long (buy) and short (sell) signals, the script uses RSI to identify potential turning points in the market, providing traders with strategic entry and exit points.
Calculating Long and Short Signals
Long Signals : These are generated when the RSI of the DEMA crosses above the longThreshold (set at 70 by default) and the closing price is not above the upper volatility band. This suggests that the asset is gaining upward momentum while not being excessively overbought, presenting a potentially favorable buying opportunity.
Short Signals : Generated when the RSI of the DEMA falls below the shortThreshold (set at 55 by default). This indicates that the asset may be losing momentum or entering a downtrend, signaling a possible selling or shorting opportunity.
Logical Soundness
The logic of combining DEMA with RSI for generating trade signals is sound for several reasons:
Timeliness : The use of DEMA ensures that the price source for RSI calculation is up-to-date, making the momentum signals more relevant.
Balance : By setting distinct thresholds for long and short signals, the script balances sensitivity and specificity, aiming to minimize false signals while capturing genuine market movements.
Adaptability : The inclusion of user inputs for periods and thresholds allows traders to customize the indicator to fit various trading styles and timeframes.
Trading Use-Cases
This DEMA RSI Overlay indicator is versatile and can be applied across different markets and timeframes. Its primary use-cases include:
Trend Following: Traders can use it to identify the start of a new trend or the continuation of an existing trend.
Swing Trading: The indicator's sensitivity to price changes makes it ideal for swing traders looking to capitalize on short to medium-term price movements.
Risk Management: By providing clear long and short signals, it helps traders manage their positions more effectively, potentially reducing the risk of significant losses.
Final Note
We have also decided to add in the option of standard deviation bands, calculated on the DEMA, this can be used as a point of confluence rendering trading ranges. Expanding when volatility is high and compressing when it is low.
For example:
This provides the user with a 1, 2, 3 standard deviation band of the DEMA.
Thus following all of the key points here are some sample backtests on the 1D Chart
Disclaimer: Backtests are based off past results, and are not indicative of the future.
INDEX:BTCUSD
INDEX:ETHUSD
BINANCE:SOLUSD
Kalman Price Filter [BackQuant]Kalman Price Filter
The Kalman Filter, named after Rudolf E. Kálmán, is a algorithm used for estimating the state of a linear dynamic system from a series of noisy measurements. Originally developed for aerospace applications in the early 1960s, such as guiding Apollo spacecraft to the moon, it has since been applied across numerous fields including robotics, economics, and, notably, financial markets. Its ability to efficiently process noisy data in real-time and adapt to new measurements has made it a valuable tool in these areas.
Use Cases in Financial Markets
1. Trend Identification:
The Kalman Filter can smooth out market price data, helping to identify the underlying trend amidst the noise. This is particularly useful in algorithmic trading, where identifying the direction and strength of a trend can inform trade entry and exit decisions.
2. Market Prediction:
While no filter can predict the future with certainty, the Kalman Filter can be used to forecast short-term market movements based on current and historical data. It does this by estimating the current state of the market (e.g., the "true" price) and projecting it forward under certain model assumptions.
3. Risk Management:
The Kalman Filter's ability to estimate the volatility (or noise) of the market can be used for risk management. By dynamically adjusting to changes in market conditions, it can help traders adjust their position sizes and stop-loss orders to better manage risk.
4. Pair Trading and Arbitrage:
In pair trading, where the goal is to capitalize on the price difference between two correlated securities, the Kalman Filter can be used to estimate the spread between the pair and identify when the spread deviates significantly from its historical average, indicating a trading opportunity.
5. Optimal Asset Allocation:
The filter can also be applied in portfolio management to dynamically adjust the weights of different assets in a portfolio based on their estimated risks and returns, optimizing the portfolio's performance over time.
Advantages in Financial Applications
Adaptability: The Kalman Filter continuously updates its estimates with each new data point, making it well-suited to markets that are constantly changing.
Efficiency: It processes data and updates estimates in real-time, which is crucial for high-frequency trading strategies.
Handling Noise: Its ability to distinguish between the signal (e.g., the true price trend) and noise (e.g., random fluctuations) is particularly valuable in financial markets, where price data can be highly volatile.
Challenges and Considerations
Model Assumptions: The effectiveness of the Kalman Filter in financial applications depends on the accuracy of the model used to describe market dynamics. Financial markets are complex and influenced by numerous factors, making model selection critical.
Parameter Sensitivity: The filter's performance can be sensitive to the choice of parameters, such as the process and measurement noise values. These need to be carefully selected and potentially adjusted over time.
Despite these challenges, the Kalman Filter remains a potent tool in the quantitative trader's arsenal, offering a sophisticated method to extract useful information from noisy financial data. Its use in trading strategies should, however, be complemented with sound risk management practices and an awareness of the limitations inherent in any model-based approach to trading.
AI Adaptive Money Flow Index (Clustering) [AlgoAlpha]🌟🚀 Dive into the future of trading with our latest innovation: the AI Adaptive Money Flow Index by AlgoAlpha Indicator! 🚀🌟
Developed with the cutting-edge power of Machine Learning, this indicator is designed to revolutionize the way you view market dynamics. 🤖💹 With its unique blend of traditional Money Flow Index (MFI) analysis and advanced k-means clustering, it adapts to market conditions like never before.
Key Features:
📊 Adaptive MFI Analysis: Utilizes the classic MFI formula with a twist, adjusting its parameters based on AI-driven clustering.
🧠 AI-Driven Clustering: Applies k-means clustering to identify and adapt to market states, optimizing the MFI for current conditions.
🎨 Customizable Appearance: Offers adjustable settings for overbought, neutral, and oversold levels, as well as colors for uptrends and downtrends.
🔔 Alerts for Key Market Movements: Set alerts for trend reversals, overbought, and oversold conditions, ensuring you never miss a trading opportunity.
Quick Guide to Using the AI Adaptive MFI (Clustering):
🛠 Customize the Indicator: Customize settings like MFI source, length, and k-means clustering parameters to suit your analysis.
📈 Market Analysis: Monitor the dynamically adjusted overbought, neutral, and oversold levels for insights into market conditions. Watch for classification symbols ("+", "0", "-") for immediate understanding of the current market state. Look out for reversal signals (▲, ▼) to get potential entry points.
🔔 Set Alerts: Utilize the built-in alert conditions for trend changes, overbought, and oversold signals to stay ahead, even when you're not actively monitoring the charts.
How It Works:
The AI Adaptive Money Flow Index employs the k-means clustering machine learning algorithm to refine the traditional Money Flow Index, dynamically adjusting overbought, neutral, and oversold levels based on market conditions. This method analyzes historical MFI values, grouping them into initial clusters using the traditional MFI's overbought, oversold and neutral levels, and then finding the mean of each cluster, which represent the new market states thresholds. This adaptive approach ensures the indicator's sensitivity in real-time, offering a nuanced understanding of market trend and volume analysis.
By recalibrating MFI thresholds for each new data bar, the AI Adaptive MFI intelligently conforms to changing market dynamics. This process, assessing past periods to adjust the indicator's parameters, provides traders with insights finely tuned to recent market behavior. Such innovation enhances decision-making, leveraging the latest data to inform trading strategies. 🌐💥
Octopus Nest Strategy Hello Fellas,
Hereby, I come up with a popular strategy from YouTube called Octopus Nest Strategy. It is a no repaint, lower timeframe scalping strategy utilizing PSAR, EMA and TTM Squeeze.
The strategy considers these market factors:
PSAR -> Trend
EMA -> Trend
TTM Squeeze -> Momentum and Volatility by incorporating Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels
Note: As you can see there is a potential improvement by incorporating volume.
What's Different Compared To The Original Strategy?
I added an option which allows users to use the Adaptive PSAR of @loxx, which will hopefully improve results sometimes.
Signals
Enter Long -> source above EMA 100, source crosses above PSAR and TTM Squeeze crosses above 0
Enter Short -> source below EMA 100, source crosses below PSAR and TTM Squeeze crosses below 0
Exit Long and Exit Short are triggered from the risk management. Thus, it will just exit on SL or TP.
Risk Management
"High Low Stop Loss" and "Automatic High Low Take Profit" are used here.
High Low Stop Loss: Utilizes the last high for short and the last low for long to calculate the stop loss level. The last high or low gets multiplied by the user-defined multiplicator and if no recent high or low was found it uses the backup multiplier.
Automatic High Low Take Profit: Utilizes the current stop loss level of "High Low Stop Loss" and gets calculated by the user-defined risk ratio.
Now, follows the bunch of knowledge for the more inexperienced readers.
PSAR: Parabolic Stop And Reverse; Developed by J. Welles Wilders and a classic trend reversal indicator.
The indicator works most effectively in trending markets where large price moves allow traders to capture significant gains. When a security’s price is range-bound, the indicator will constantly be reversing, resulting in multiple low-profit or losing trades.
TTM Squeeze: TTM Squeeze is a volatility and momentum indicator introduced by John Carter of Trade the Markets (now Simpler Trading), which capitalizes on the tendency for price to break out strongly after consolidating in a tight trading range.
The volatility component of the TTM Squeeze indicator measures price compression using Bollinger Bands and Keltner Channels. If the Bollinger Bands are completely enclosed within the Keltner Channels, that indicates a period of very low volatility. This state is known as the squeeze. When the Bollinger Bands expand and move back outside of the Keltner Channel, the squeeze is said to have “fired”: volatility increases and prices are likely to break out of that tight trading range in one direction or the other. The on/off state of the squeeze is shown with small dots on the zero line of the indicator: red dots indicate the squeeze is on, and green dots indicate the squeeze is off.
EMA: Exponential Moving Average; Like a simple moving average, but with exponential weighting of the input data.
Don't forget to check out the settings and keep it up.
Best regards,
simwai
---
Credits to:
@loxx
@Bjorgum
@Greeny
Adaptive Fisherized Z-scoreHello Fellas,
It's time for a new adaptive fisherized indicator of me, where I apply adaptive length and more on a classic indicator.
Today, I chose the Z-score, also called standard score, as indicator of interest.
Special Features
Advanced Smoothing: JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother
Adaptive Length Algorithms: In-Phase Quadrature, Homodyne Discriminator, Median and Hilbert Transform
Inverse Fisher Transform (IFT)
Signals: Enter Long, Enter Short, Exit Long and Exit Short
Bar Coloring: Presents the trade state as bar colors
Band Levels: Changes the band levels
Decision Making
When you create such a mod you need to think about which concepts are the best to conclude. I decided to take Inverse Fisher Transform instead of normalization to make a version which fits to a fixed scale to avoid the usual distortion created by normalization.
Moreover, I chose JMA, T3, Hann Window and Super Smoother, because JMA and T3 are the bleeding-edge MA's at the moment with the best balance of lag and responsiveness. Additionally, I chose Hann Window and Super Smoother because of their extraordinary smoothing capabilities and because Ehlers favours them.
Furthermore, I decided to choose the half length of the dominant cycle instead of the full dominant cycle to make the indicator more responsive which is very important for a signal emitter like Z-score. Signal emitters always need to be faster or have the same speed as the filters they are combined with.
Usage
The Z-score is a low timeframe scalper which works best during choppy/ranging phases. The direction you should trade is determined by the last trend change. E.g. when the last trend change was from bearish market to bullish market and you are now in a choppy/ranging phase confirmed by e.g. Chop Zone or KAMA slope you want to do long trades.
Interpretation
The Z-score indicator is a momentum indicator which shows the number of standard deviations by which the value of a raw score (price/source) is above or below the mean value of what is being observed or measured. Easily explained, it is almost the same as Bollinger Bands with another visual representation form.
Signals
B -> Buy -> Z-score crosses above lower band
S -> Short -> Z-score crosses below upper band
BE -> Buy Exit -> Z-score crosses above 0
SE -> Sell Exit -> Z-score crosses below 0
If you were reading till here, thank you already. Now, follows a bunch of knowledge for people who don't know the concepts I talk about.
T3
The T3 moving average, short for "Tim Tillson's Triple Exponential Moving Average," is a technical indicator used in financial markets and technical analysis to smooth out price data over a specific period. It was developed by Tim Tillson, a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with expertise in Mathematics and Computer Science.
The T3 moving average is an enhancement of the traditional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and aims to overcome some of its limitations. The primary goal of the T3 moving average is to provide a smoother representation of price trends while minimizing lag compared to other moving averages like Simple Moving Average (SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), or EMA.
To compute the T3 moving average, it involves a triple smoothing process using exponential moving averages. Here's how it works:
Calculate the first exponential moving average (EMA1) of the price data over a specific period 'n.'
Calculate the second exponential moving average (EMA2) of EMA1 using the same period 'n.'
Calculate the third exponential moving average (EMA3) of EMA2 using the same period 'n.'
The formula for the T3 moving average is as follows:
T3 = 3 * (EMA1) - 3 * (EMA2) + (EMA3)
By applying this triple smoothing process, the T3 moving average is intended to offer reduced noise and improved responsiveness to price trends. It achieves this by incorporating multiple time frames of the exponential moving averages, resulting in a more accurate representation of the underlying price action.
JMA
The Jurik Moving Average (JMA) is a technical indicator used in trading to predict price direction. Developed by Mark Jurik, it’s a type of weighted moving average that gives more weight to recent market data rather than past historical data.
JMA is known for its superior noise elimination. It’s a causal, nonlinear, and adaptive filter, meaning it responds to changes in price action without introducing unnecessary lag. This makes JMA a world-class moving average that tracks and smooths price charts or any market-related time series with surprising agility.
In comparison to other moving averages, such as the Exponential Moving Average (EMA), JMA is known to track fast price movement more accurately. This allows traders to apply their strategies to a more accurate picture of price action.
Inverse Fisher Transform
The Inverse Fisher Transform is a transform used in DSP to alter the Probability Distribution Function (PDF) of a signal or in our case of indicators.
The result of using the Inverse Fisher Transform is that the output has a very high probability of being either +1 or –1. This bipolar probability distribution makes the Inverse Fisher Transform ideal for generating an indicator that provides clear buy and sell signals.
Hann Window
The Hann function (aka Hann Window) is named after the Austrian meteorologist Julius von Hann. It is a window function used to perform Hann smoothing.
Super Smoother
The Super Smoother uses a special mathematical process for the smoothing of data points.
The Super Smoother is a technical analysis indicator designed to be smoother and with less lag than a traditional moving average.
Adaptive Length
Length based on the dominant cycle length measured by a "dominant cycle measurement" algorithm.
Happy Trading!
Best regards,
simwai
---
Credits to
@cheatcountry
@everget
@loxx
@DasanC
@blackcat1402
RSI Volatility Bands [QuantraSystems]RSI Volatility Bands
Introduction
The RSI Volatility Bands indicator introduces a unique approach to market analysis by combining the traditional Relative Strength Index (RSI) with dynamic, volatility adjusted deviation bands. It is designed to provide a highly customizable method of trend analysis, enabling investors to analyze potential entry and exit points in a new and profound way.
The deviation bands are calculated and drawn in a manner which allows investors to view them as areas of dynamic support and resistance.
Legend
Upper and Lower Bands - A dynamic plot of the volatility-adjusted range around the current price.
Signals - Generated when the RSI volatility bands indicate a trend shift.
Case Study
The chart highlights the occurrence of false signals, emphasizing the need for caution when the bands are contracted and market volatility is low.
Juxtaposing this, during volatile market phases as shown, the indicator can effectively adapt to strong trends. This keeps an investor in a position even through a minor drawdown in order to exploit the entire price movement.
Recommended Settings
The RSI Volatility Bands are highly customisable and can be adapted to many assets with diverse behaviors.
The calibrations used in the above screenshots are as follows:
Source = close
RSI Length = 8
RSI Smoothing MA = DEMA
Bandwidth Type = DEMA
Bandwidth Length = 24
Bandwidth Smooth = 25
Methodology
The indicator first calculates the RSI of the price data, and applies a custom moving average.
The deviation bands are then calculated based upon the absolute difference between the RSI and its moving average - providing a unique volatility insight.
The deviation bands are then adjusted with another smoothing function, providing clear visuals of the RSI’s trend within a volatility-adjusted context.
rsiVal = ta.rsi(close, rsiLength)
rsiEma = ma(rsiMA, rsiVal, bandLength)
bandwidth = ma(bandMA, math.abs(rsiVal - rsiEma), bandLength)
upperBand = ma(bandMA, rsiEma + bandwidth, smooth)
lowerBand = ma(bandMA, rsiEma - bandwidth, smooth)
long = upperBand > 50 and not (lowerBand < lowerBand and lowerBand < 50)
short= not (upperBand > 50 and not (lowerBand < lowerBand and lowerBand < 50))
By dynamically adjusting to market conditions, the RSI trend bands offer a unique perspective on market trends, and reversal zones.
