Alpine Predictive BandsAlpine Predictive Bands - ADX & Trend Projection is an advanced indicator crafted to estimate potential price zones and trend strength by integrating dynamic support/resistance bands, ADX-based confidence scoring, and linear regression-based price projections. Designed for adaptive trend analysis, this tool combines multi-timeframe ADX insights, volume metrics, and trend alignment for improved confidence in trend direction and reliability.
Key Calculations and Components:
Linear Regression for Price Projection:
Purpose: Provides a trend-based projection line to illustrate potential price direction.
Calculation: The Linear Regression Centerline (LRC) is calculated over a user-defined lookbackPeriod. The slope, representing the rate of price movement, is extended forward using predictionLength. This projected path only appears when the confidence score is 70% or higher, revealing a white dotted line to highlight high-confidence trends.
Adaptive Prediction Bands:
Purpose: ATR-based bands offer dynamic support/resistance zones by adjusting to volatility.
Calculation: Bands are calculated using the Average True Range (ATR) over the lookbackPeriod, multiplied by a volatilityMultiplier to adjust the width. These shaded bands expand during higher volatility, guiding traders in identifying flexible support/resistance zones.
Confidence Score (ADX, Volume, and Trend Alignment):
Purpose: Reflects the reliability of trend projections by combining ADX, volume status, and EMA alignment across multiple timeframes.
ADX Component: ADX values from the current timeframe and two higher timeframes assess trend strength on a broader scale. Strong ADX readings across timeframes boost the confidence score.
Volume Component: Volume strength is marked as “High” or “Low” based on a moving average, signaling trend participation.
Trend Alignment: EMA alignment across timeframes indicates “Bullish” or “Bearish” trends, confirming overall trend direction.
Calculation: ADX, volume, and trend alignment integrate to produce a confidence score from 0% to 100%. When the score exceeds 70%, the white projection line is activated, underscoring high-confidence trend continuations.
User Guide
Projection Line: The white dotted line, which appears only when the confidence score is 70% or higher, highlights a high-confidence trend.
Prediction Bands: Adaptive bands provide potential support/resistance zones, expanding with market volatility to help traders visualize price ranges.
Confidence Score: A high score indicates a stronger, more reliable trend and can support trend-following strategies.
Settings
Prediction Length: Determines the forward length of the projection.
Lookback Period: Sets the data range for calculating regression and ATR.
Volatility Multiplier: Adjusts the width of bands to match volatility levels.
Disclaimer: This indicator is for educational purposes and does not guarantee future price outcomes. Additional analysis is recommended, as trading carries inherent risks.
Confidence
Excel Confidence %Excel Confidence %
Ranges between 0 and 100, usually at the extreme end of the scale.
A value of 0 indicates an unlikely move up, while 100 indicates a high probability of a rise.
You can try to use a slower version of the indicator (replacing 7 and 15 in the formula 3 and 5, respectively, and trade intersections, like stochastics.
You can also trade levels buy at values of 90 and above, sell at 10 and below.
Scoring Development Sample [BigBitsIO]This script shows a sample of how to do confidence weighted scoring indicators and for loops with Pine. This indicator may or may not be found useful, it's intent is to provide a sample on how to create such an indicator and use certain Pine features.
Features:
- Defined points based on the confidence of RSI and Stochastic indicator
- Defined points based on candle color and sma trend direction
- For loops used to calculate bonus points for "extended periods" of confidence.
*** DISCLAIMER: For educational and entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this content should be interpreted as financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any sort of security or investment including all types of crypto. DYOR, TYOB. ***
