Ehlers Adaptive Center Of Gravity [CC]The Adaptive Center Of Gravity was created by John Ehlers and this is a regular center of gravity indicator combined to be use with the current cycle period. If you are not familiar with stock cycles then I would highly recommend his book on the subject: Cycle Analytics. Buy when the indicator turns green and sell when it turns red.
Let me know if there are any other indicators you want me to publish!
Cycles
Screener: Alpha & Beta IndexThis is a Index Screener which can short list the major Sectors contributing to NIFTY movement that day.
This helps in sector based trading, in which we can trade in the stocks which falls under that particular sector.
No need to roam around all the stocks in the whole watchlist.
It is recommended to create sector wise watchlist of all sectors. It will be easier to concentrate in only one sector.
For example in IT sector index there are certain stocks which contribute to the movement of IT sector.
This will be available in NSE (or exchange website).
For detailed description check out the descriptions in my previous 2 Alpha and Beta indicators.
Combine and use this screener with my previous Alpha & Beta indicator.
Morun Astro Trend MAs cross StrategyAstrology machine learning cycles indicator signals with technical MAs indicators strategy, based on signals index of Github project github.com
Hosoda Cycles (24x7 mkt) {fmz}This script allows you to see on the chart which are the bars, including future ones, which correspond to the cycles of Goichi Hosoda, the inventor of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.
This script is only suitable for 24x7 markets, it is not suitable for markets with closing times and weekends, or gap markets where trading is not active. In fact, the calculation of calendar times is used, not suitable for markets with closing times.
Use the settings to indicate what the start time of bar 1. The indicator will produce many vertical bars, even in addition to the end time of the graph.
BTC ATH ROIThis indicator shows the ROI % of Bitcoin from when it passed its ATH of the previous bull cycle. I found it interesting that each time it crossed its ATH it took around 260-280 days to peak for each one. This bull run seems to follow between both of the previous bull runs including this recent dip.
There are a couple issues I want to fix but can't figure out:
1. You need to completely scroll out and move towards 2013 on the Daily chart for all 3 lines to show up. Would be nice to load all of that data at the start.
2. I can't query the value of the plots after they have been offset. This would be useful to create a prediction bias for the current plot so would could see where btc might go.
If you peeps know of a way to load all data or query plot values after offsets, please share. That would be awesome.
kimchi(korea) premium percent - bithumb btc / binance btcThis script was created to confirm the fear of kimchi premium in the cryptocurrency market.
The basic operation formula is as follows.
premium(percent) = (BTC KRW - (BTC USDT x USD KRW) / (BTC USDT x USD KRW)) x 100
By calculating the premium, you can check melt up rally.
Looking at the chart, when kimchi's premium reaches 6-8 percent, BTC faces great volatility (mainly downside).
So, a color warning was made for values outside of -2~2%, which is the general kimchi premium (can be changed in settings).
Also, a zero line has been added for readability.
Also, a color change has been added to the ema to see if the value of each market moves in the opposite direction based on the previous candle's closing price. If the two markets move separately, the ema is colored red.
I think this script is a very simple indicator.
It is usually recommended to get value in a large time frame.
Thank you.
Cycle Swing MomentumAdaptive Ultra-Smooth Momentum indicator
The Cycle-Swing-Indicator "CSI" provides an optimized "momentum" oscillator based on the current dominant cycle by looking at the swing of the dominant cycle instead of the raw source momentum. Offering the following improvements:
Smoothness
Zero delay
Sharpness at turning points
Robust and adaptable to market conditions
Accurate deviation detection
The following common problems with standard indicators are solved by this indicator:
First, normal indicators introduce a lot of false signals due to their noisy signal line. Second, to compensate for the noise, one would normally try to add some smoothing. But this only results in adding more delay to the indicator, which makes it almost useless. Third, standard indicators require a length adjustment to derive reliable signals. However, you never know how to set the right length.
All three problems described above are solved by the developed adaptive cyclic algorithm.
The above chart shows current Bitcoin 4h data from the last days as of writing with the proposed signal reading for this indicator. The standard momentum indicator is included for comparison.
HOW TO USE
The indicator works without any parameter and can be applied to any chart and any time-frame. It will adapt automatically to the Dominant Cycle and use the dominant cycle of the source data to derive the ultra smooth momentum curve. Adaptive upper/lower bands are included and highlight areas with extreme readings. Automatic divergence detection can be turned off/on.
HOW TO READ
The indicator can be used like any oscillator. In addition, it provides adaptive high and low bands.
* Look for turns above the upper/lower bands
* Look for divergences between source and signals line
Further reading/Original source:
The indicator uses the dominant cycle to optimize signal, smoothing and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the Cycle Swing Indicator, please read Chapter 10 "Cycle Swing Indicator: Trading the swing of the dominant cycle" of the book "Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 1" available at your favorite book store.
Related ideas:
Please also check the cyclic RSI indicator which also uses cyclic information to improve the signal.
Cycles StrategyThis is back-testable strategy is a modified version of the Stochastic strategy. It is meant to accompany the modified Stochastic indicator: "Cycles".
Modifications to the Stochastic strategy include;
1. Programmable settings for the Stochastic Periods (%K, %D and Smooth %K).
2. Programmable settings for the MACD Periods (Fast, Slow, Smoothing)
3. Programmable thresholds for %K, to qualify a potential entry strategy.
4. Programmable thresholds for %D, to qualify a potential exit strategy.
5. Buttons to choose which components to use in the trading algorithm.
6. Choose the month and year to back test.
The trading algorithm:
1. When %K exceeds the upper/lower threshold and then hooks down/up, in the direction of the Moving Average (MA). This is the minimum entry qualification.
2. When %D exceeds the lower/upper threshold and angled in the direction of the trade, is the exit qualification.
3. Additional entry filters include the direction of MACD, Signal and %D. Also, the "cliff", being a long entry is a higher high or a short entry is a lower low.
4. Strategy can only go "Long" or "Short" depending on the selected setting.
5. By matching the settings in the "Cycles" indicator, you can (almost) see what the strategy is doing.
6. Be sure to select the "Recalculate" buttons, to recalculate on every new Tick, for best results.
Please click the Like button and leave a comment if you appreciate this script. Improvements will be implemented as time goes on.
I am not a licensed trade advisor. This strategy is for entertainment only. Use at your own risk!
CyclesThis is a modified Stochastic indicator. Modifications include:
1. The output is now centered on "0" and the scale is from -50 to +50, so that histograms and columns can be used to plot the output.
2. Added visual trade setup triggers. A trigger to the up side is a cycle high and indicates a "sell signal". A trigger to the down side is a cycle low and indicates a "buy" signal.
3. Added an alert trigger to be used to setup alerts. Selecting "Alert" to be Greater Than (>) Value = 0.00 will trigger an alert if either the buy or sell triggers occur.
4. Added a force indicator output. This indicates the rate of change in "D", or mathematically "dD/dt", as was done in the Power Analyzer indicator. When Force and D are in-phase, the maximum power is achieved.
5. Added "Slow Average Momentum" and "Slow Average Force" as was done in the Power Analyzer indicator.
6. Added an internal MACD and EMA as part of the trade setup trigger equation. There is a new input variable for the EMA length.
7. Added an input variable for the "Trigger Threshold", which ranges from -50 to 50, to be used as a screening filter.
RSI cyclic smoothed v2Cyclic Smoothed Relative Strength Indicator
The cyclic smoothed RSI indicator is an enhancement of the classic RSI , adding
additional smoothing according to the market vibration,
adaptive upper and lower bands according to the cyclic memory and
using the current dominant cycle length as input for the indicator.
The cRSI is used like a standard indicator. The chart highlights trading signals where the signal line crosses above or below the adaptive lower/upper bands. It is much more responsive to market moves than the basic RSI.
You can also review this short idea where BTC went down from 4300 USD (3 Sept 17) to 3700 USD (15 Sept 17) after the idea was posted and showed the clear short exit with the next low:
The indicator uses the dominant cycle as input to optimize signal, smoothing and cyclic memory. To get more in-depth information on the cyclic-smoothed RSI indicator, please read Chapter 4 "Fine tuning technical indicators" of the book "Decoding the Hidden Market Rhythm, Part 1" available at your favorite book store.
This is the open-source code version of the requested script already published as protected indicator back in 2017 "RSI cyclic smoothed". Now made public as v2. Would love to receive feedback and see your ideas.
Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index by DGTPsychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle?
Before proceeding with the question "where", let's first have a quick look at "What is market psychology?"
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions. Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets and that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles - which is also dynamic.
Stages of Investor Emotions:
* Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy stocks.
* Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish.
* Thrill – At this point we investors cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are.
* Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable.
* Anxiety – For the first time the market moves against us. Having never stared at unrealized losses, we tell ourselves we are long-term investors and that all our ideas will eventually work.
* Denial – When markets have not rebounded, yet we do not know how to respond, we begin denying either that we made poor choices or that things will not improve shortly.
* Fear – The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move in our favor.
* Desperation – Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to breakeven.
* Panic – Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next.
* Capitulation – Deciding our portfolio will never increase again, we sell all our stocks to avoid any future losses.
* Despondency – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. This often marks the moment of greatest financial opportunity.
* Depression – Not knowing how we could be so foolish, we are left trying to understand our actions.
* Hope – Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin looking for our next opportunity.
* Relief – Having bought a stock that turned profitable, we renew our faith that there is a future in investing.
It's hard to predict with certainty where we exactly are in the market cycle, we can only make an educated guess as to the rough stage based on data available. And here comes the study "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index"
Factors taken into account in this study include:
1-Price Momentum : Price Divergence/Convergence versus its Slow Moving Average
2-Strenght : Rate of Return (RoR) also called Return on Investment (ROI) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment, net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength
3-Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution
4-Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions
5-Safe Haven Demand : in this study GOLD demand is assumed
What to look for :
*Fear and Greed Index as explained above,
*Divergencies
Tool tip of the label displayed provides details of references
Conclusion:
As investors, we always get caught up in the day to day price movements, and lose sight of the bigger picture. The biggest crashes happen not when investors are cautious and fearful, it's when they're euphoric and expecting financial instruments to continue going higher. So as we continue investing, don’t forget to stop and ask yourself, where in the chart do you think we are right now? The Market Psychology Cycle shines light on how emotions evolve, fear and greed index can come in handy, provided that it is not the only tool used to make investment decisions. It is easy to look back at market cycles and recognize how the overall psychology changed. Analyzing previous data makes it obvious what actions and decisions would have been the most profitable. However, it is much harder to understand how the market is changing as it goes - and even harder to predict what comes next. Many investors use technical analysis (TA) to attempt to anticipate where the market is likely to go. Investors are advised to keep tabs on fear for potential buying the dips opportunities and view periods of greed as a potential indicator that financial instruments might be overvalued.
Warren Buffett's quote, buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
Ehlers Cyber Cycle [CC]The Cyber Cycle was created by John Ehlers (Cybernetic Analysis For Stocks And Futures pg 34) and this is one of my favorite Ehlers indicators. I use it personally for exits but it has several uses. It gives great entry and exit signals when you enter when it is at the bottom or at the very top during a cycle. When it is above 0 then the stock is in a strong uptrend and when it is below 0 then the stock is in a strong downtrend. It is also very reactive as well with zero lag according to Ehlers. Buy when the indicator line is green and sell when it is red.
Let me know if there are other scripts you would like to see me publish or if you want something custom done!
Ehlers Sinewave Indicator V2 [CC]The Sinewave Indicator was created by John Ehlers (Cybernetic Analysis For Stocks And Futures pgs 154-155) and this is an updated version of his original Sinewave Indicator which in my opinion seems to be more reactive to changes. Buy when the blue line crosses over the red line and sell when the blue line crosses under the red line. Also keep in mind that this indicator is based on cycles so it won't act the same as a typical indicator.
Let me know if there are other scripts you would like to see me publish or if you want something custom done!
Ehlers Spectrum Derived Filter Bank [CC]The Spectrum Derived Filter Bank was created by John Ehlers (Stocks & Commodities V. 26:3 (16-22)) and this is technically two indicators in one. This will let you know the current cycle period which is in blue and the other indicator will let you know if you should buy the stock or not. Buy when it is green and sell when it is red.
Let me know if you would like me to publish other scripts or if you want something custom done!
Note: I'm republishing this because the original script couldn't be found in searches so this will fix that.
Ehlers Dominant Cycle Tuned Bypass Filter [CC]The Dominant Cycle Tuned Bypass Filter was created by John Ehlers (Stocks & Commodities V. 26:3 (16-22)) and this is a particularly unique indicator because this does a pretty good job at predicting the future stock movements. If the blue line crosses over the red then a few bars from now the stock price will most likely go up and if the blue line crosses below the red then a few bars from now the stock price should go down. Since this is such a unique indicator to use with entry and exit points, I don't have them color coded but try this out and let me know what you think.
This was a special request so let me know what other scripts you would like to see me publish or if you want anything custom done!
Note: I'm republishing this because the original script couldn't be found in searches so this will fix that.
Ehlers Correlation Cycle IndicatorThe Correlation Cycle Indicator was created by John Ehlers (Stocks & Commodities V. 38:06 (8–15)) and this is technically part of three indicators in one so I'm splitting each one to a separate script. This particular indicator was designed for trend direction and trend strength and simply buy when it is green and sell when it turns red. Also keep in mind that the higher the indicator is above the signal then the stronger the trend and when they are close together, conditions get choppy.
Let me know if you would like to see me publish other scripts or if you want something custom done!
Phase CalculationPhase Calculation was authored by John F. Elders in the Stocks and Commodities Magazine 11/1996
This indicator will tell you if the stock is in a uptrend or downtrend. A phase number with a low number means it is in a uptrend and a phase number with a high number means it is in a downtrend.
Let me know if you want to see me write code for different indicators!
Envelope BTMStudi cicli? Questo fa per te, le bande che altro non sono due medie mobili, tengono il prezzo alle due estremità (in alto e in basso).
Questo ti farà semplicemente analizzare e tenere traccia i cicli dello strumento in questione.
Do you study cycles? This is for you, the bands, formed by two moving averages, keep the price between the two ends (top and bottom).
This will simply cause you to analyze and track the cycles of price in question.
Stochastic Pop and Drop by Jake Bernstein v1 [Bitduke]I found a simple strategy by Jake Bernstein, modified it a little and created a strategy with Risk Management System (SL+TP); After that I test it on the different cryptocurrency pairs.
About the Indicator
Basically it's the strategy of 2 indicators: Stochastic Oscillator to define the bias and Average Directional Index to confirm it.
One again, It uses Stochastic Oscillator to define the trading bias. In particular, the trading bias was deemed bullish when the weekly 14-period Stochastic Oscillator was above some default value (in him paper - 50) and rising and vice versa.
Once the trading bias is established, Steckler used the Average Directional Index (ADX) to define a slowdown in the trend. ADX measures the strength of the trend and a move below 20 signals a weak trend.
Modifications
I didn't implement Average Directional Index (ADX) and test just different sources for data, oscillator periods and different levels in relation to the crypto market.
So, it shows good results with two tight thresholds at 55 and 45 level.
The bar chart below the defining the bullish and bearish periods (green and red) and gives a signal to enter the trade (purple bars).
Backtesting
Backtested on XBTUSD , BTCPERP (FTX) pairs. You may notice it shows good results on 3h timeframe.
Relatively low drawdown
~ 10% (from 2019 to date) FTX
~ 22% (4 years from 2016) Bitmex
I backtested on the different altcoin pairs as well, but the results were just not good.
Relatively good results were shown by some index pairs from the FTX exchange ( FTX:SHITPERP ), but I think there is a few data for backtesting to be asure in them.
Bitmex 3h (2017 - 2020) :
i.imgur.com
FTX 3h (2019 - 2020):
i.imgur.com
Possible Improvements
- Regarding trading algorithm it would be good to check with strategy with ADX somehow. Maybe for the better entries
- As for Risk Management system, it can be improved by adding trailing stop to the strategy.
Link: school.stockcharts.com
Grover Llorens Cycle Oscillator [alexgrover & Lucía Llorens]Cycles represent relatively smooth fluctuations with mean 0 and of varying period and amplitude, their estimation using technical indicators has always been a major task. In the additive model of price, the cycle is a component :
Price = Trend + Cycle + Noise
Based on this model we can deduce that :
Cycle = Price - Trend - Noise
The indicators specialized on the estimation of cycles are oscillators, some like bandpass filters aim to return a correct estimate of the cycles, while others might only show a deformation of them, this can be done in order to maximize the visualization of the cycles.
Today an oscillator who aim to maximize the visualization of the cycles is presented, the oscillator is based on the difference between the price and the previously proposed Grover Llorens activator indicator. A relative strength index is then applied to this difference in order to minimize the change of amplitude in the cycles.
The Indicator
The indicator include the length and mult settings used by the Grover Llorens activator. Length control the rate of convergence of the activator, lower values of length will output cycles of a faster period.
here length = 50
Mult is responsible for maximizing the visualization of the cycles, low values of mult will return a less cyclical output.
Here mult = 1
Finally you can smooth the indicator output if you want (smooth by default), you can uncheck the option if you want a noisy output.
The smoothing amount is also linked with the period of the rsi.
Here the smoothing amount = 100.
Conclusion
An oscillator based on the recently posted Grover Llorens activator has been proposed. The oscillator aim to maximize the visualization of cycles.
Maximizing the visualization of cycles don't comes with no cost, the indicator output can be uncorrelated with the actual cycles or can return cycles that are not present in the price. Other problems arises from the indicator settings, because cycles are of a time-varying periods it isn't optimal to use fixed length oscillators for their estimation.
Thanks for reading !
If my work has ever been of use to you you can donate, addresses on my signature :)
Grover Llorens Activator [alexgrover & Lucía Llorens] Trailing stops play a key role in technical analysis and are extremely popular trend following indicators. Their main strength lie in their ability to minimize whipsaws while conserving a decent reactivity, the most popular ones include the Supertrend, Parabolic SAR and Gann Hilo activator. However, and like many indicators, most trailing stops assume an infinitely long trend, which penalize their ability to provide early exit points, this isn't the case of the parabolic SAR who take this into account and thus converge toward the price at an increasing speed the longer a trend last.
Today a similar indicator is proposed. From an original idea of alexgrover & Lucía Llorens who wanted to revisit the classic parabolic SAR indicator, the Llorens activator aim to converge toward the price the longer a trend persist, thus allowing for potential early and accurate exit points. The code make use of the idea behind the price curve channel that you can find here :
I tried to make the code as concise as possible.
The Indicator
The indicator posses 2 user settings, length and mult , length control the rate of convergence of the indicator, with higher values of length making the indicator output converge more slowly toward the price. Mult is also related with the rate of convergence, basically once the price cross the trailing stop its value will become equal to the previous trailing stop value plus/minus mult*atr depending on the previous trailing stop value, therefore higher values of mult will require more time for the trailing stop to reach the closing price, use higher values of mult if you want to avoid potential whipsaws.
Above the indicator with slow convergence time (high length) and low mult.
Points with early exit points are highlighted.
Usage For Oscillators
The difference between the closing price and an overlay indicator can provide an oscillator with characteristics depending on the indicators used for differencing, Lucía Llorens stated that we should find indicators for differencing that highlight the cycles in the price, in other terms : Price - Signal , where we want to find Signal such that we maximize the visibility of the cycles, it can be demonstrated that in the case where the closing price is an additive model : Trend + Cycles + Noise , the zero lag estimation of the Trend component can allow for the conservation of the cycle and noise component, that is : Price - Estimate(Trend) , for example the difference between the price and moving average isn't optimal because of the moving average lag, instead the use of zero lag moving averages is more suitable, however the proposed indicator allow for a surprisingly good representation of the cycles when using differencing.
The normalization of this oscillator (via the RSI) allow to make the peak amplitude of the cycles more constant. Note however that such method can return an output with a sign inverse to the one of the original cycle component.
Conclusion
We proposed an indicator which share the logic of the SAR indicator, that is using convergence toward the price in order to provide early exit points detection. We have seen that this indicator can be used to highlight cycles when used for differencing and i don't exclude publishing more indicators based on this method.
Lucía Llorens has been a great person to work with, and provided enormous feedback and support while i was coding the indicator, this is why i include her in the indicator name as well as copyright notice. I hope we can make more indicators togethers in the future.
(altho i was against using buy/sells labels xD !)
Thanks for reading !
Combo Backtest 123 Reversal & D_DSP (Detrended Synthetic Price) This is combo strategies for get a cumulative signal.
First strategy
This System was created from the Book "How I Tripled My Money In The
Futures Market" by Ulf Jensen, Page 183. This is reverse type of strategies.
The strategy buys at market, if close price is higher than the previous close
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Slow Oscillator is lower than 50.
The strategy sells at market, if close price is lower than the previous close price
during 2 days and the meaning of 9-days Stochastic Fast Oscillator is higher than 50.
Second strategy
Detrended Synthetic Price is a function that is in phase with the
dominant cycle of real price data. This DSP is computed by subtracting
a half-cycle exponential moving average (EMA) from the quarter cycle
exponential moving average.
See "MESA and Trading Market Cycles" by John Ehlers pages 64 - 70.
WARNING:
- For purpose educate only
- This script to change bars colors.
