Rule Of 20 - Fair Value Estimation by Inflation & Earnings (TG)The Rule Of 20 is a heuristic calculation to find the fair value of an asset or market given its earnings and current inflation.
Its calculation is straightforward: the fair multiple of the price or price-to-earnings ratio of a stock should be 20 minus the rate of inflation.
In math terms: fair_price-to-earnings_ratio = (20 - inflation) ; fair_value = current_price * fair_price-to-earnings_ratio / real_price-to-earnings_ratio
For example, if a stock or index was trading on 11 times earnings and inflation was 2%, then the theory would be that the fair price-to-earnings ratio would be 20-2 = 18, which is much higher than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 11, and hence the asset would be undervalued.
Conversely, a market or company that was trading on 18 times price-to-earnings ration when inflation was 8% was seen as overvalued, because of the fair price-to-earnings ratio being 20-8=12, hence much lower than the real price-to-earnings ratio of 18.
We can then project the delta between the fair PE and real PE onto the asset's value to obtain the projected fair value, which may be a target of future value the asset may reach or hover around.
For example, as of 1st November 2022, SPX stood at 3871.97, with a PE ratio of 20.14 and an inflation in the US of 7.70. Using the Rule Of 20, we find that the fair PE ratio is 20-7.7=12.3, which is much lower than the current PE ratio of 20.14 by 39%! This may indicate a future possibility of a further downside risk by 39% from current valuation levels.
The origins of this rule are unknown, although the legendary US fund manager Peter Lynch is said to have been an active proponent when he was directing the Fidelity’s Magellan fund from 1977 to 1990.
For more infos about the Rule Of 20, reading this article is recommended: www.sharesmagazine.co.uk
This indicator implements the Rule Of 20 on any asset where the Financials are availble to TradingView, and also for the entire SP:SPX index as a way to assess the wider US stock market. Technically, the calculation is a bit different for the latter, as we cannot access earnings of SPX through Financials on TradingView, so we access it using the QUANDL:MULTPL/SP500_PE_RATIO_MONTH ticker instead.
By default are displayed:
current asset value in red
fair asset value according to the Rule Of 20 in white for SPX, or different shades of purple/maroon for other assets. Note that for SPX there is only one calculation, whereas for other assets there are multiple different ways to calculate earnings, so different fair values can be computed.
fair price-to-earnings ratio (PE ratio) in light grey.
real price-to-earnings ratio in darker grey.
This indicator can be used on SP:SPX ticker, and on most NASDAQ:* tickers, since they have Financials integrated in TradingView. Stocks tickers from other exchanges may not provide Financials data, so this indicator won't work then. If this happens, try to find the same ticker on NASDAQ instead.
Note that by default, only the US stock market is considered. If you want to consider stocks or assets in other regions of the world, please change the inflation ticker to a ticker that reflect the target region's inflation.
Also adding a table to ease interpretation was considered, but then the Timeframe MTF parameter would not work, and since the big advantage of this indicator is to allow for historical comparisons, the table was dropped.
Enjoy, and keep in mind that all models are wrong, but some are useful.
Trade safely!
TG
Earnings
[GTH] Net Profit Margin (%)Displays the Net Profit Margin in a more "readable" fashion than the built-in TV Indicator.
This indicator concludes the series of 'Minervini-indicators', consisting of "GTH Earnings", "GTH Revenues" and "GTH Net Profit Margin (%)".
Famous trader Mark Minervini repeately describes rising earnings, revenues and net profit margin as the most important financials for finding superperformers.
In case of reporting a malfunction: Please be specific. Statements like "does not work" are useless. Thanks.
[GTH] Earnings
Black line -> actually Reported Earnings
Colored bars -> positive/negative surprise in regard to Estimated Earnings
Labels -> percentage of change in regard of the previous Reported Earnings
EPS & SalesHi everyone,
I just adapted a little utility script to visualise EPS % increase (quarters vs Year -1) and sales.
I used the code from @ARUN_SAXENA and modified it to fix what I saw as issues.
(Using base 3M instead of 1M +
request.earnings(syminfo.tickerid, earnings.actual, ignore_invalid_symbol=true)
instead of
request.financial(syminfo.tickerid, "EARNINGS_PER_SHARE", "FQ")
Data will differ from MarketSmith because they use sometimes actual EPS sometimes standard, but think we can at least trust what we see in term of %
The tool is far from being perfect !
Nabz-BBMACD-2022-V1.1I have tried to make script which triggers indicators on combination of different feedback including Bollinger bands and MACD. Also used some of my logic by trial and error, It gave 744%+ profit on back-testing on coin RUNE/USDT from Jan 2021. It is my first script, I am happy to help the community. Please share your feedback.
EPS DashboardThis script creates a little table in an indicator below your chart that allows you to view the earnings per share over the last year as well as calculates the year over year earnings per share growth. According to IBD, strong EPS growth is a great indicator of a potential super-performer stock so hopefully this will make it easier to keep an eye on this metric. Note it does not work on things without financial data like crypto, indexes, and ETFs.
Earnings Price Move Cheat Sheet [KT]Hello!
This script looks to distinguish replicable sequences and correlations between earnings releases and price. The indicator calculates the average 1-session to 20-session performance of an asset prior to an earnings release, and the 1-session to 20-session performance of an asset subsequent an earnings release.
You can select the number of sessions the script calculates for asset performance.
In the image above the script calculates the average 1-session performance following an earnings surprise, earnings miss, and in general. 20 sessions is the maximum value!
Also measured is the average performance of an asset before and after earnings, in addition to the average performance following an earnings surprise "green earnings" and the average performance following an earnings miss "red earnings".
I included VaR and CVaR calculations - using the historical method - in the script. For those of you unfamiliar with the metrics, both look to quantify the risk of financial loss for a portfolio, or even a particular position.
The script also calculates the 1st - 5th percentile for earnings losses. A more comprehensive explanation of the metrics is stored in tooltips in the user input tab.
The script also calculates the highest high and lowest low following an earnings release, up to 20 sessions, and calculates the difference between the two.
Keep in mind that a company might not have a significant number of earnings misses, or may have only traded publicly for a short while. If true, the resulting earnings/price calculations *will* be misleading - there is an insufficient sample size; no correlations are ascertainable.
I will be working on this script more, so let me know if there is anything you would like included!
Financial GrowthThis indicator will acquire the financial data provided by Tradview.
the data is compare between Quarter, Annual and TTM in term of percent of growth.
YoY, QoQ and CAGR is also available by this script (The minimum is 4).
in addition, ploting of data, label and table also available (you can check the mark to toggle on / off).
Data : Revenue, Net Income, EBITDA, EPS, DVPS, Free Cash Flow and Forward PE .
How to use it.
just select the financial data, period and size of data to compare.
you can check the box to toggle the plotting line, label and table.
Enjoy.
HighLow Box Highlight between EarningsHighLow Box Highlight between Earnings
This is an indicator to highlight area between two earning periods and their highest and lowest points.
It also alternates the highlight color in each subsequent block.
Tested to work in 1D charts and 1M charts
Just drop a message, if you want this further developed with more features.
Note: This was requested by user Meatpye on a forum.
Silen's Financials Fair ValueIt is finally here! 🔥 My 3rd and most important script in my Financial series! 🚀
Ever imagined to see all fundamentals (or many that is) combined into one indicator that is right on your chart, showing you how your favorite stock is trading compared to its fundamentals?
Well, here is your answer! 📡
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This script shows you my own personal interpretation of fair value, based solely on the financial fundamentals of a company compared to market averages.
I don't believe that certain sectors of the market should be priced higher than others. If you look at historical data you'll see that favored sectors always rotate - placing insanely high P/E multiples on some sectors. Once they are "out" and people rotate away from those sectors you're left with nothing but the naked fundamentals that matter. So, you'll see many companies, that have been doing well on paper, see their share price decline by 70-90% for no other reasons than people favoring other sectors.
That's why it's even more important to focus on fair value that is solely fundamentals-based. Know when your stock gets to expensive. 🤯
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To give you some examples:
- Most Megacaps trade at historically high valuations, several times my fair value. Those include AAPL, MSFT, NVDA, AMZN, TSLA, JPM, TSM, V and so on. And no, in the past they partially traded below (my) fair value.
- Most Cybersecurity / Cloud companies are trading at truly massive multiples of my fair value. (NET, DDOG, etc)
- Many Smallcaps & Midcaps are trading several multiples (OESX, CODX, QFIN) below my fair value. And no, in the past they partially traded above (my) fair value.
Ok, so much about the market. You ultimately decide how much you want to orientate on fair value. 👨🏫
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This fair value indicator (purple line):
Takes the P/E rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Takes the P/S rate of the company and compares it to the market (50% weight)
Then adds boni and mali f or debt/equity rates and debt and equity itself
Also looks at past growth and calculates future P/E and P/S rates which adds , in some cases, value to the fair value (green line)
Also compares how historical valuations have behaved compared to fair value and simulates a fair value guideline (dark blue line)
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This script is part 3️⃣ of a series of indicators that work well together.
Script 1️⃣ of the series is:
P/E & P/S Rates
Script 2️⃣ of the series is:
Debt & Equity
If you use all 3 scripts together it will look like this, giving you truly deep and simple information about the fundamentals of a company:
Example 1 - AMD
Example 2 - HZO
Example 3 - APPS
I hope this script makes your investing and stock picks a lot easier! 🔆💹🕗
Disclaimer: Fair value is always subjective. There are many different approaches to fair value. This one is only my personal interpretation.
Disclaimer 2: This script works only for the Day-Timeframe.
Disclaimer 3: This script uses 17,5 P/E and 3,0 P/S as market averages. The actual average keeps changing but, historically speaking, these seemed to be good numbers.
Feel free to share your thoughts and feedback! 🙃
FX Profit CalculatorWith this indicator, you will be able to see how much you earn in forex in dollar terms.
It asks you 3 things when adding the indicator.
TP point
SL point
Position Entry point
If you have selected the TP point above, the entry zone below it, and the SL point below it, the indicator will automatically understand that there is a BUY order and will make the calculations accordingly.
The same is true for the opposite.
When you use the indicator in any parity, you will have problems switching to other parities.
So either use it only in one parity, or update your targets from the indicator settings at every parity change.
You will get the same error if:
Your trading entry point should be between your TP and SL points. If you do not set it this way, the indicator will warn that please fix it.
If you are in the trade, tick the settings and show the dollar-based profit of your position according to the instant closing price.
The percentage variable works like this:
When you adjust for one parity, shifts occur in the chart when you switch to the other parity. When switching to non-circulating graphics at the same prices, the user is prompted to re-enter so that the graphic does not deteriorate.
BONUS : You can move these lines up and down with your mouse on the graphic :)
Silen's Financials Debt & EquityThis Script shows Debt (red) & Equity (green), as well as Total Equity and Net Income in a preformatted way for a symbol. Total revenue's and Net income's visibility is turned off by default and can be activated in the indicator settings. 🍳
Disclaimer: Any content in this script can be completely replicated by using Tradingview's Build-In Financial Indicators: Total debt, Total equity, Net income and Total revenue. It requires a lot of formatting work to get them to this state though. 👌
However, you are going to need 4 Financial Indicators clogging 🚽 your screen. With this indicator you have them preformatted as an overlay on your chart so you know exactly what's going on with your ticker's financials. 💰
I recommend only using Debt & Equity OR Total Equity & Net Income together. Although displaying all 4 indicators together is possible, it will make your chart quite messy.
This is how the indicator looks like for Total equity and Net Income:
This Script (2) is part of a Series that will contain 3 scripts to help you easily evaluate if a stock is trading in harmony with its fundamentals or not. ☯
Script 1 already exists:
Script 3 will be a Fair Value Indicator. 📣
Script 1 and 2 combined will look like this: 🌄
If you have any questions, let me know! 🙂
Estimate, Earnings, Surprise EarningsThis plot helps you to show estimate earnings , reported earnings , and surprise earnings of a company inside a chart.
Estimate earnings is the projection of earnings of a company by the analysts for a given period of time.
Earnings is a company's reported profits (or sometimes a loss if going negative) in a given quarter or fiscal year.
Surprise earnings is an earning (or sometimes a loss if going negative) which is above (or even below) the estimated or reported earnings.
Estimate earning is plotted by white lines
Reported Earnings is plotted by columns, where positive number is blue and negative number is purple.
Surprise Earnings is plotted by columns, where positive number is green and negative number is red.
You surely will be able to tweak and customize all the colors above with color you find comfortable.
Since earnings are reported every quarter of the year, this plot will gives a good view when you put it inside a 3 Months timeframe.
Hope this helpful.
Profit Percentage TrackerThis script provides a quick and easy way to visualize profits in a chart, based on the given entry date and price.
Optionally, alerts can be sent when profits cross up the given " profit unit ".
In short:
Tracks how much profit one could take based on the input " entry date " and the input " entry price "
These inputs are interactive (www.tradingview.com)
Displays the result in a label on top of the last candle
(Optional) Sends alerts based on the given " profit unit ", that is: if ' 0.5 ' is given, then an alert is triggered every time the profit is raised by that number
(Be careful with low values, as TradingView could stop an alert if it triggers too much.)
For alerts to be displayed, a " script alert " must be created right after the script was added to the chart:
- www.tradingview.com
(Choose ' Profits ' as condition and ' Any alert() function call ')
Good to know: if you check " Notify on app ", alerts can be delivered directly to your phone:
i.imgur.com
Prerequirements :
The chart's timezone has to be set to " Exchange " (this is required in order to support the alert's logic):
- kodify.net
Silen's Financials P/E & P/S[x10] RatesThis script aims to give a better visualization of P/E and P/S rates compared to the build-in "Price to earnings ratio" and "Price to sales ratio" in the "Financials" Section of Tradingview. For those of you don't know, those rates compare earnings and sales with your share price in regard to market cap and outstanding shares.
The scripts differs to the build-in versions in the following points:
- P/E & P/S rates are combined in one indicator
- Negative P/E rates are displayed better: Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red
- For visualization reasons, the indicator will cap positive and negative P/E rates at 100. (P/E rates above those levels are not siginificant either way)
- P/E & P/S rate are directly displayed on the graph
- Both P/E and P/S rates are combined on one left scale
- For visualization reasons, P/S rate is showing 10x the actual P/S rate. Using the standard P/S rate would result in hard-to-recognize changes of the P/S line.
To sum up:
- Positive P/E rates are green
- Negative P/E rate are red
- P/S rates are multiplied by 1 0
- P/S rates are yellow
How to use P/E and P/S rates:
The US market average for P/E rates is roughly ~18 in the US right now (10/2022) while the market average for P/S rates is roughly ~3 in the US. Note that average P/E and P/S can change when the market situation changes.
P/E and P/S rates help you value your stock better and help you decide whether your stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to the market or the industry when it comes to earnings and sales. If you compare to Market averages, a positive P/E of less than 18 means that your stock is likely unvervalued. A P/S rate below 3 (30 in the chart!) means that your stock is likely undervalued as well. If your stock shows rates above those, it is likely that it is overvalued compared to market averages.
Please note that P/E and P/S rates are not the only factors that make up a stock valuation. Valuations are complex and subjective.
A positive P/E rate also means that your company is profitable.
A Negative P/E rate means that your company is unprofitable.
If you have any questions or feedback let me know!
Disclaimer: This script doesn't show the actual P/S rate. It shows the P/S rate multiplied by 10, due to visualization issues. Positive P/E Rates above 100 are displayed as 100. Positive P/E rates are green, Negative P/E rates are red and multiplied by -1.
Disclaimer2: @Tradingview_Team: I couldn't find the right category for this script but categories are mandatory. I assume that "Breadth Indicators" is still the closest there is. Please let me know if you want me to change the category.
Disclaimer3: For visualization, the opacity of the displayed image is 70%. The standard opacity for the P/E and P/S lines is 50% and can be changed in the indicator settings. I found this setting more useful when working together with other indicators on the same chart
Disclaimer4: Earnings Per Share, Total Revenue used are TTM. Total Shares Outstanding used are FQ.
Gain/StopLoss Percentage LinesGain/StopLoss Percentage Lines is a quick way to enter your Entry Price in to a stock and track the percentage of gain or loss at the 5% and 10% markers.
Click on the gear settings icon and type in your entry price. The percentage is defaulted to 5%. You can change this to a different percentage at this screen. Note that whatever number you enter will be doubled for the upper and lower lines. For instance, if you want to set your first red line stop loss and green gain line at 2.5%, your two other upper and lower green and red lines will be at 5%.
However, this will not change the text on the tab marker.
To change the tab text, go in to the Pine Editor and change the green text that says "5% Gain" and "5% Loss" to your new percentages.
Horizontal line for Market open price by NB(ENG)
Since meaningful movements starts based on the first bar of the market's opening time
(usually GMT + 0), this indicator is creat to be used as a tool to use it as support and resistance.
Look at the bar of just 15 minutes passed after market opened, and when the bar closed with positive candlestick then
draw horizontal line at high price, when the bar closed negative candlestick then draw horizontal line at low price.
I use diffrent colors to help visualization.
If you look these at from a distance, you can see sections that are tightly entangled and sections those are not.
This makes it possible to distinguish between strong and weak support/resistance sections.
For convenience, I put only color and transparency adjustments. No future upgrades are planned.
Thanks to ADOL_ for this great idea, and also to Bjorn Mistiaen for helping me to make the source code.
(KOR)
마켓의 오픈 시간(보통 GMT 0시)에 첫 바를 기준으로 의미 있는 움직임이 시작되기에
이를 지지와 저항으로 활용하는 도구로 쓰기 위하여 만든 지표입니다.
GMT 0시 15분 봉 마감 기준으로, 양봉이면 그 양봉의 고점을 이어 가로줄을 긋고,
음봉이면 저점을 이어 가로줄을 긋습니다. 서로 색을 달리하여 시각화를 돕습니다.
이를 멀리서 보면 촘촘히 얽힌 구간이 나오고 그렇지 않은 구간이 나옵니다.
이를 통해 지지/저항이 강한 구간과 약한 구간을 구별할 수가 있습니다.
편의를 돕기 위해 색과 투명도 조절까지만 넣어 놓았습니다.
추후 업그레이드는 예정되어 있지 않습니다.
이 대단한 아이디어를 주신 ADOL_에게 감사드리며,
소스 코드를 만들게 해주신 Bjorn Mistiaen에게도 감사를 드립니다.
SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
Distance from the ATH priceThis indicator shows us the distance (in %) between the current price and the ATH price.
The closer the price is to the ATH the higher the percentage.
100% means we reached the ATH price.
HOW TO USE:
No special input necessary.
Markets:
It can be used to all markets.
NOTE:
Some Exchanges don't go very far back in the past and for this reason this may have impact on this Indicator.
Stock Value Display//This study is designed to plot estimates for a stock's value:
//1) the Price to earnings ratio (PE) value based on the trailing twelve months of data
//2) the PE value based future data
//3) the Benjamin Graham value based trailing data
//4) the Dividend Discount value based on trailing data
You can adjust the period of data used to calculate the value between Fiscal Quarter "FQ" and Fiscal Year "FY."
The values displayed on the chart are subject to the financial information provided to TradingView. This is intended to be used as a quick reference and should be viewed in context with other analysis prior to making any transaction decisions.
As always, happy trading!
P1 FundamentalsP1 is because to me, this is a priority 1 indicator, so I have P1 and P2 indicators ordered on the favorite list.
What can you check on the selection pane?
On “period”, you can show the data related to:
the fiscal quarters
or the fiscal years.
You can select a pack of financial data that I have organized in sections:
Revenue & earnings
EPS & DPS (EPS, EPS estimate, DPS and dividend payout ratio )
Debt (total debt, total equity and cash & equivalents)
Returns (ROE, ROIC, ROA and R&D revenue to ratio)
I recommend to just select one of them, in other case the chart is a mess.
Any feedback on the code is welcome!!
