Economic — Indicators and Strategies

Modern Economic Eras Dashboard Overview This script provides a historical macroeconomic visualization of U.S. markets, highlighting long-term structural "eras" such as the Bretton Woods period, the inflationary 1970s, and the post-2020 "Age of Disorder." It overlays key economic indicators sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) and displays notable market crashes, all in a clean and rescaled format for easy comparison. Data Sources & Indicators All data is loaded monthly from official FRED series and rescaled to improve readability: 🔵 Real GDP (FRED:GDP): Total output of the U.S. economy. 🔴 Inflation Index (FRED:CPIAUCSL): Consumer price index as a proxy for inflation. ⚪ Debt to GDP (FRED:GFDGDPA188S): Federal debt as % of GDP. 🟣 Labor Force Participation (FRED:CIVPART): % of population in the labor force. 🟠 Oil Prices (FRED:DCOILWTICO): Monthly WTI crude oil prices. 🟡 10Y Real Yield (FRED:DFII10): Inflation-adjusted yield on 10-year Treasuries. 🔵 Symbol Price: Optionally overlays the charted asset’s price, rescaled. Historical Crashes The dashboard highlights 10 major U.S. market crashes, including 1929, 2000, and 2008, with labeled time spans for quick context. Era Classification Six macroeconomic eras based on Deutsche Bank’s Long-Term Asset Return Study (2020) are shaded with background color. Each era reflects dominant economic regimes—globalization, wars, monetary systems, inflationary cycles, and current geopolitical disorder. Best Use Cases ✅ Long-term macro investors studying structural market behavior ✅ Educators and analysts explaining economic transitions ✅ Portfolio managers aligning strategy with macroeconomic phases ✅ Traders using history for cycle timing and risk assessment Technical Notes Designed for monthly timeframe, though it works on weekly. Uses close price and standard request.security calls for consistency. Max labels/lines configured for broader history (from 1860s to present). All plotted series are rescaled manually for better visibility. Originality This indicator is original and not derived from built-in or boilerplate code. It combines multiple economic dimensions and market history into one interactive chart, helping users frame today's markets in a broader structural context.

Economic Crises by @zeusbottrading Economic Crises Indicator by @zeusbottrading Description and Use Case Overview The Economic Crises Highlight Indicator is designed to visually mark major economic crises on a TradingView chart by shading these periods in red. It provides a historical context for financial analysis by indicating when major recessions occurred, helping traders and analysts assess the performance of assets before, during, and after these crises. What This Indicator Shows This indicator highlights the following major economic crises (from 1953 to 2020), which significantly impacted global markets: • 1953 Korean War Recession • 1957 Monetary Tightening Recession • 1960 Investment Decline Recession • 1969 Employment Crisis • 1973 Oil Crisis • 1980 Inflation Crisis • 1981 Fed Monetary Policy Recession • 1990 Oil Crisis and Gulf War Recession • 2001 Dot-Com Bubble Crash • 2008 Global Financial Crisis (Great Recession) • 2020 COVID-19 Recession Each of these periods is shaded in red with 80% transparency, allowing you to clearly see the impact of economic downturns on various financial assets. How This Indicator is Useful This indicator is particularly valuable for: ✅ Comparative Performance Analysis – It allows traders and investors to compare how different assets (e.g., Gold, Silver, S&P 500, Bitcoin) performed before, during, and after major economic crises. ✅ Identifying Market Trends – Helps recognize recurring patterns in asset price movements during times of financial distress. ✅ Risk Management & Strategy Development – Understanding how markets reacted in the past can assist in making better-informed investment decisions for future downturns. ✅ Gold, Silver & Bitcoin as Safe Havens – Comparing precious metals and cryptocurrencies against traditional stocks (e.g., SPY) to analyze their performance as hedges during economic turmoil. How to Use It in Your Analysis By overlaying this indicator on your Gold, Silver, SPY, and Bitcoin chart (for example), you can quickly spot historical market reactions and use that insight to predict possible behaviors in future downturns. ⸻ How to Apply This in TradingView? 1. Click on Use on chart under the image. 2. Overlay it with Gold ( OANDA:XAUUSD ), Silver ( OANDA:XAGUSD ), SPY ( AMEX:SPY ), and Bitcoin ( COINBASE:BTCUSD ) for comparative analysis. ⸻ Conclusion This indicator serves as a powerful historical reference for traders analyzing asset performance during economic downturns. By studying past crises, you can develop a data-driven investment strategy and improve your market insights. 🚀📈 Let me know if you need any modifications or enhancements!

US10Y Yield Range Percentile | JeffreyTimmermans US10Y Yield Range Percentile The "US10Y Yield Range Percentile" Indicator provides insights into the relative positioning of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) within a specified lookback period. It highlights key valuation style conditions, helping traders assess market sentiment based on yield movements. Why is the US 10-Year Treasury Yield Important? The U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y) is one of the most critical benchmarks in global finance. It reflects the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government and serves as a risk-free rate that influences interest rates across the economy. Macroeconomic Indicator: Rising yields suggest strong economic growth or inflationary pressures, often leading to tighter monetary policy. Falling yields indicate economic slowdown, deflationary risks, or increased demand for safe-haven assets. Impact on Financial Markets: Stock Market: Higher yields reduce the attractiveness of equities, while lower yields support risk assets. Credit Markets: A rising 10-year yield increases borrowing costs, impacting corporate debt and mortgage rates. Global Capital Flows: US10Y is a key driver of capital allocation worldwide, affecting currency valuations and capital flows into emerging markets. Correlation with Risk Assets (Especially Crypto): Crypto markets, particularly Bitcoin and Ethereum, have shown a strong inverse correlation with US10Y yields. When yields rise, risk assets tend to sell off due to tighter financial conditions. When yields decline, liquidity flows into speculative assets, boosting stocks, crypto, and growth sectors. Key Functions of the Indicator Range Calculation: Computes the highest high and lowest low over a user-defined period (default: 63 days). Measures the current yield’s position within this range. Range Percentile Calculation: Determines the percentile rank of the current yield within its range. A higher percentile indicates higher yields, often associated with Risk OFF conditions. A lower percentile suggests lower yields, signaling Risk ON sentiment. Optional Smoothing: Enable/Disable: Users can enable Simple Moving Average (SMA) smoothing to reduce noise. Default smoothing length : 10 periods (can be customized). Threshold Levels & Background Coloring: The background color represents the current market regime (valuation based), based on the US10Y yield percentile: Risk ON (Bullish): When the percentile falls below the lower threshold (default: 20). Neutrally Positive Zone (also Risk ON): Between 20 and 80 percentile. Risk OFF (Bearish): When the percentile rises above the upper threshold (default: 80). Important : Background Coloring is NOT a Leading Signal. The background color provides a visual representation of valuation periods, but it is not a leading indicator for price movements. Instead, traders should focus on the orange US10Y Range Percentile line, which is the key signal within this indicator. The colors behind the line below the chart are leading. The background colors behind the price chart are more of a valuation style indications. When the orange line enters the Danger Zone (above 80 percentile), it signals that yields are elevated, and risk assets (such as stocks and crypto) are at increased risk of reversing downward. While the background coloring helps to visualize market conditions, price reversals tend to occur when the percentile line is in extreme zones rather than when the background color changes. Traders should monitor the percentile line closely, as it provides a clearer signal of potential shifts in market sentiment. Visual Elements Range Percentile Plot: Displays the smoothed or raw percentile value over time. Helps identify shifts in yield positioning. Threshold Markers & Fill Zones: Key percentile thresholds (0, 20, 80, 100) are marked with horizontal lines. The area between 20-80 percentile is filled to indicate the neutral zone. Extreme zones are highlighted to emphasize significant shifts in risk sentiment. Dynamic Labeling: A real-time percentile label appears next to the latest data point. Alerts & Notifications Risk OFF to Risk ON Transition: Alert triggers when the percentile falls below the lower threshold (yields decreasing). Risk ON to Risk OFF Transition: Alert triggers when the percentile rises above the upper threshold (yields increasing). Conclusion The crypto market is highly sensitive to macroeconomic conditions, with Bitcoin often behaving like a high-beta tech stock. A declining US10Y yield signals looser financial conditions, increasing demand for risk assets like crypto. A rising US10Y yield tightens liquidity, leading to sell-offs in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and altcoins. Tracking the US10Y percentile position helps traders anticipate market shifts before they occur. This indicator serves as a leading signal for understanding market risk appetite by tracking Treasury yield movements. A decline in yields typically favors equities and risk assets, while rising yields indicate a shift toward safety and risk aversion. Credits This indicator was inspired by and builds upon the work of TomasOnMarkets . While incorporating significant enhancements, it acknowledges the foundational concepts provided by this original source. Thank you for sharing your input on this important indicator. We are honored to use it and to further improve upon it. -Jeffrey

Economic Seasons [Daveatt]Ever wondered what season your economy is in? Just like Mother Nature has her four seasons, the economy cycles through its own seasons! This indicator helps you visualize where we are in the economic cycle by tracking two key metrics: 📊 What We're Tracking: 1. Interest Rates (USIRYY) - The yearly change in interest rates 2. Inflation Rate (USINTR) - The rate at which prices are rising The magic happens when we normalize these values (fancy math that makes the numbers play nice together) and compare them to their recent averages. We use a lookback period to calculate the standard deviation and determine if we're seeing higher or lower than normal readings. 🔄 The Four Economic Seasons & Investment Strategy: 1. 🌸 Goldilocks (↑Growth, ↓Inflation) "Not too hot, not too cold" - The economy is growing steadily without overheating. BEST TIME TO: Buy growth stocks, technology, consumer discretionary WHY: Companies can grow earnings in this ideal environment of low rates and stable prices 2. 🌞 Reflation (↑Growth, ↑Inflation) "Party time... but watch your wallet!" - The economy is heating up. BEST TIME TO: Buy commodities, banking stocks, real estate WHY: These sectors thrive when inflation rises alongside growth 3. 🌡️ Inflation (↓Growth, ↑Inflation) "Ouch, my purchasing power!" - Growth slows while prices keep rising. BEST TIME TO: Rotate into value stocks, consumer staples, healthcare WHY: These defensive sectors maintain pricing power during inflationary periods 4. ❄️ Deflation (↓Growth, ↓Inflation) "Winter is here" - Both growth and inflation are falling. BEST TIME TO: Focus on quality bonds, cash positions, and dividend aristocrats WHY: Capital preservation becomes key; high-quality fixed income provides safety 🎯 Strategic Trading Points: - BUY AGGRESSIVELY: During late Deflation/early Goldilocks (the spring thaw) - HOLD & ACCUMULATE: Throughout Goldilocks and early Reflation - START TAKING PROFITS: During late Reflation/early Inflation - DEFENSIVE POSITIONING: Throughout Inflation and Deflation ⚠️ Warning Signs to Watch: - Goldilocks → Reflation: Time to reduce growth stock exposure - Reflation → Inflation: Begin rotating into defensive sectors - Inflation → Deflation: Quality becomes crucial - Deflation → Goldilocks: Start building new positions The blue dot shows you where we are right now in this cycle. The red arrows in the middle remind us that this is a continuous cycle - one season flows into the next, just like in nature! 💡 Pro Tip: The transitions between seasons often provide the best opportunities - but also the highest risks. Use additional indicators and fundamental analysis to confirm these shifts. Remember: Just like you wouldn't wear a winter coat in summer, you shouldn't use a Goldilocks strategy during Inflation! Time your trades with the seasons. 🎯 Happy Trading! 📈

Economic Events: FOMC, CPI, PPI, NFP, etc This script plots vertical lines on major U.S. economic events that can impact a trading day. Allowing you to decide if you want to trade on that day or to help with back testing (limited in how far back one can go). The indicator preview chart doesn't show the vertical lines for whatever reason. Here is a snapshot image. This is completely different code from Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty and uses different logic but provides similar features using the same public library for U.S. economic events. Differences: Substantial Improved Performance. Legend setting to only show when there is an event today. Abbreviations for events. More Legend Settings (Position, Text Size, Color...) WARNING: Does NOT use the same 'built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals' , so possible there could be differences but shouldn't be. No noticeable difference on USDJPY. Note: Was purposely made to not work on timeframes greater than one day. Economic Events FOMC Meetings FOMC Minutes Producer Price Index (PPI) Consumer Price Index (CPI) Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) To read a description of the economic events see Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty This script uses economic data from Library "EconomicCalendar" and will be updated when said library is updated.

Economic Data Trading alerts - CPI, Interest rate, PPI, etc Description: This indicator is designed to alert based on user-selected economic data for Europe, the US, and Japan. It allows users to define their preferred economic data points and trade direction based on the change in the economic data compared to the previous value. you can use the strategy to automate economic data trading. Key Features: Choose from various economic data points for Europe, the US, and Japan. Customize trade direction based on whether the economic data is above or below the previous value. Define entry conditions based on user preferences. Visualize trade entries on the chart. Display a table showing the results of executed trades. Please note that this strategy is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research and use proper risk management when trading. The indicator is BETA please make sure to test it before using it. IMPORTANT: you need to be aware of the fundmentals because the regime changes and markets react to every release of data differently.

Relevant World GDP Grouped Looking at a basket of countries total GDP for comparing size of economy. Makes it easy to select your own groupings of countries for comparison. A country's GDP is the total of consumer spending (C) plus business investment (I) and government spending (G), plus net exports, which is total exports minus total imports (X – M). Alliances visualized was the original idea but wasn't quite sure for a lot of other countries where they stand so it is what it is; feel free to improve.