Economic Seasons [Daveatt]Ever wondered what season your economy is in?
Just like Mother Nature has her four seasons, the economy cycles through its own seasons! This indicator helps you visualize where we are in the economic cycle by tracking two key metrics:
📊 What We're Tracking:
1. Interest Rates (USIRYY) - The yearly change in interest rates
2. Inflation Rate (USINTR) - The rate at which prices are rising
The magic happens when we normalize these values (fancy math that makes the numbers play nice together) and compare them to their recent averages. We use a lookback period to calculate the standard deviation and determine if we're seeing higher or lower than normal readings.
🔄 The Four Economic Seasons & Investment Strategy:
1. 🌸 Goldilocks (↑Growth, ↓Inflation)
"Not too hot, not too cold" - The economy is growing steadily without overheating.
BEST TIME TO: Buy growth stocks, technology, consumer discretionary
WHY: Companies can grow earnings in this ideal environment of low rates and stable prices
2. 🌞 Reflation (↑Growth, ↑Inflation)
"Party time... but watch your wallet!" - The economy is heating up.
BEST TIME TO: Buy commodities, banking stocks, real estate
WHY: These sectors thrive when inflation rises alongside growth
3. 🌡️ Inflation (↓Growth, ↑Inflation)
"Ouch, my purchasing power!" - Growth slows while prices keep rising.
BEST TIME TO: Rotate into value stocks, consumer staples, healthcare
WHY: These defensive sectors maintain pricing power during inflationary periods
4. ❄️ Deflation (↓Growth, ↓Inflation)
"Winter is here" - Both growth and inflation are falling.
BEST TIME TO: Focus on quality bonds, cash positions, and dividend aristocrats
WHY: Capital preservation becomes key; high-quality fixed income provides safety
🎯 Strategic Trading Points:
- BUY AGGRESSIVELY: During late Deflation/early Goldilocks (the spring thaw)
- HOLD & ACCUMULATE: Throughout Goldilocks and early Reflation
- START TAKING PROFITS: During late Reflation/early Inflation
- DEFENSIVE POSITIONING: Throughout Inflation and Deflation
⚠️ Warning Signs to Watch:
- Goldilocks → Reflation: Time to reduce growth stock exposure
- Reflation → Inflation: Begin rotating into defensive sectors
- Inflation → Deflation: Quality becomes crucial
- Deflation → Goldilocks: Start building new positions
The blue dot shows you where we are right now in this cycle.
The red arrows in the middle remind us that this is a continuous cycle - one season flows into the next, just like in nature!
💡 Pro Tip: The transitions between seasons often provide the best opportunities - but also the highest risks. Use additional indicators and fundamental analysis to confirm these shifts.
Remember: Just like you wouldn't wear a winter coat in summer, you shouldn't use a Goldilocks strategy during Inflation! Time your trades with the seasons. 🎯
Happy Trading! 📈
Economic
Economic Events: FOMC, CPI, PPI, NFP, etcThis script plots vertical lines on major U.S. economic events that can impact a trading day. Allowing you to decide if you want to trade on that day or to help with back testing (limited in how far back one can go).
The indicator preview chart doesn't show the vertical lines for whatever reason.
Here is a snapshot image.
This is completely different code from Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty and uses different logic but provides similar features using the same public library for U.S. economic events.
Differences:
Substantial Improved Performance.
Legend setting to only show when there is an event today.
Abbreviations for events.
More Legend Settings (Position, Text Size, Color...)
WARNING: Does NOT use the same 'built-in logic to retroactively adjust larger time intervals' , so possible there could be differences but shouldn't be. No noticeable difference on USDJPY.
Note: Was purposely made to not work on timeframes greater than one day.
Economic Events
FOMC Meetings
FOMC Minutes
Producer Price Index (PPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI)
Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI)
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
Non-Farm Payroll (NFP)
To read a description of the economic events see Economic Calendar Events: FOMC, CPI, and more by @jdehorty
This script uses economic data from Library "EconomicCalendar" and will be updated when said library is updated.
Economic Data Trading alerts - CPI, Interest rate, PPI, etcDescription:
This indicator is designed to alert based on user-selected economic data for Europe, the US, and Japan. It allows users to define their preferred economic data points and trade direction based on the change in the economic data compared to the previous value.
you can use the strategy to automate economic data trading.
Key Features:
Choose from various economic data points for Europe, the US, and Japan.
Customize trade direction based on whether the economic data is above or below the previous value.
Define entry conditions based on user preferences.
Visualize trade entries on the chart.
Display a table showing the results of executed trades.
Please note that this strategy is provided for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Always do your own research and use proper risk management when trading.
The indicator is BETA please make sure to test it before using it.
IMPORTANT: you need to be aware of the fundmentals because the regime changes and markets react to every release of data differently.
Relevant World GDP GroupedLooking at a basket of countries total GDP for comparing size of economy. Makes it easy to select your own groupings of countries for comparison. A country's GDP is the total of consumer spending (C) plus business investment (I) and government spending (G), plus net exports, which is total exports minus total imports (X – M). Alliances visualized was the original idea but wasn't quite sure for a lot of other countries where they stand so it is what it is; feel free to improve.
