Futures Beta Overview with Different BenchmarksBeta Trading and Its Implementation with Futures
Understanding Beta
Beta is a measure of a security's volatility in relation to the overall market. It represents the sensitivity of the asset's returns to movements in the market, typically benchmarked against an index like the S&P 500. A beta of 1 indicates that the asset moves in line with the market, while a beta greater than 1 suggests higher volatility and potential risk, and a beta less than 1 indicates lower volatility.
The Beta Trading Strategy
Beta trading involves creating positions that exploit the discrepancies between the theoretical (or expected) beta of an asset and its actual market performance. The strategy often includes:
Long Positions on High Beta Assets: Investors might take long positions in assets with high beta when they expect market conditions to improve, as these assets have the potential to generate higher returns.
Short Positions on Low Beta Assets: Conversely, shorting low beta assets can be a strategy when the market is expected to decline, as these assets tend to perform better in down markets compared to high beta assets.
Betting Against (Bad) Beta
The paper "Betting Against Beta" by Frazzini and Pedersen (2014) provides insights into a trading strategy that involves betting against high beta stocks in favor of low beta stocks. The authors argue that high beta stocks do not provide the expected return premium over time, and that low beta stocks can yield higher risk-adjusted returns.
Key Points from the Paper:
Risk Premium: The authors assert that investors irrationally demand a higher risk premium for holding high beta stocks, leading to an overpricing of these assets. Conversely, low beta stocks are often undervalued.
Empirical Evidence: The paper presents empirical evidence showing that portfolios of low beta stocks outperform portfolios of high beta stocks over long periods. The performance difference is attributed to the irrational behavior of investors who overvalue riskier assets.
Market Conditions: The paper suggests that the underperformance of high beta stocks is particularly pronounced during market downturns, making low beta stocks a more attractive investment during volatile periods.
Implementation of the Strategy with Futures
Futures contracts can be used to implement the betting against beta strategy due to their ability to provide leveraged exposure to various asset classes. Here’s how the strategy can be executed using futures:
Identify High and Low Beta Futures: The first step involves identifying futures contracts that have high beta characteristics (more sensitive to market movements) and those with low beta characteristics (less sensitive). For example, commodity futures like crude oil or agricultural products might exhibit high beta due to their price volatility, while Treasury bond futures might show lower beta.
Construct a Portfolio: Investors can construct a portfolio that goes long on low beta futures and short on high beta futures. This can involve trading contracts on stock indices for high beta stocks and bonds for low beta exposures.
Leverage and Risk Management: Futures allow for leverage, which means that a small movement in the underlying asset can lead to significant gains or losses. Proper risk management is essential, using stop-loss orders and position sizing to mitigate the inherent risks associated with leveraged trading.
Adjusting Positions: The positions may need to be adjusted based on market conditions and the ongoing performance of the futures contracts. Continuous monitoring and rebalancing of the portfolio are essential to maintain the desired risk profile.
Performance Evaluation: Finally, investors should regularly evaluate the performance of the portfolio to ensure it aligns with the expected outcomes of the betting against beta strategy. Metrics like the Sharpe ratio can be used to assess the risk-adjusted returns of the portfolio.
Conclusion
Beta trading, particularly the strategy of betting against high beta assets, presents a compelling approach to capitalizing on market inefficiencies. The research by Frazzini and Pedersen emphasizes the benefits of focusing on low beta assets, which can yield more favorable risk-adjusted returns over time. When implemented using futures, this strategy can provide a flexible and efficient means to execute trades while managing risks effectively.
References
Frazzini, A., & Pedersen, L. H. (2014). Betting against beta. Journal of Financial Economics, 111(1), 1-25.
Fama, E. F., & French, K. R. (1992). The cross-section of expected stock returns. Journal of Finance, 47(2), 427-465.
Black, F. (1972). Capital Market Equilibrium with Restricted Borrowing. Journal of Business, 45(3), 444-454.
Ang, A., & Chen, J. (2010). Asymmetric volatility: Evidence from the stock and bond markets. Journal of Financial Economics, 99(1), 60-80.
By utilizing the insights from academic literature and implementing a disciplined trading strategy, investors can effectively navigate the complexities of beta trading in the futures market.
Educational
Judas Swing ICT 01 [TradingFinder] New York Midnight Opening M15🔵 Introduction
The Judas Swing (ICT Judas Swing) is a trading strategy developed by Michael Huddleston, also known as Inner Circle Trader (ICT). This strategy allows traders to identify fake market moves designed by smart money to deceive retail traders.
By concentrating on market structure, price action patterns, and liquidity flows, traders can align their trades with institutional movements and avoid common pitfalls. It is particularly useful in FOREX and stock markets, helping traders identify optimal entry and exit points while minimizing risks from false breakouts.
In today's volatile markets, understanding how smart money manipulates price action across sessions such as Asia, London, and New York is essential for success. The ICT Judas Swing strategy helps traders avoid common pitfalls by focusing on key movements during the opening time and range of each session, identifying breakouts and false breakouts.
By utilizing various time frames and improving risk management, this strategy enables traders to make more informed decisions and take advantage of significant market movements.
In the Judas Swing strategy, for a bullish setup, the price first touches the high of the 15-minute range of New York midnight and then the low. After that, the price returns upward, breaks the high, and if there’s a candlestick confirmation during the pullback, a buy signal is generated.
bearish setup, the price first touches the low of the range, then the high. With the price returning downward and breaking the low, if there’s a candlestick confirmation during the pullback to the low, a sell signal is generated.
🔵 How to Use
To effectively implement the Judas Swing strategy (ICT Judas Swing) in trading, traders must first identify the price range of the 15-minute window following New York midnight. This range, consisting of highs and lows, sets the stage for the upcoming movements in the London and New York sessions.
🟣 Bullish Setup
For a bullish setup, the price first moves to touch the high of the range, then the low, before returning upward to break the high. Following this, a pullback occurs, and if a valid candlestick confirmation (such as a reversal pattern) is observed, a buy signal is generated. This confirmation could indicate the presence of smart money supporting the bullish movement.
🟣 Bearish Setup
For a bearish setup, the process is the reverse. The price first touches the low of the range, then the high. Afterward, the price moves downward again and breaks the low. A pullback follows to the broken low, and if a bearish candlestick confirmation is seen, a sell signal is generated. This confirmation signals the continuation of the downward price movement.
Using the Judas Swing strategy enables traders to avoid fake breakouts and focus on strong market confirmations. The strategy is versatile, applying to FOREX, stocks, and other financial instruments, offering optimal trading opportunities through market structure analysis and time frame synchronization.
To execute this strategy successfully, traders must combine it with effective risk management techniques such as setting appropriate stop losses and employing optimal risk-to-reward ratios. While the Judas Swing is a powerful tool for predicting price movements, traders should remember that no strategy is entirely risk-free. Proper capital management remains a critical element of long-term success.
By mastering the ICT Judas Swing strategy, traders can better identify entry and exit points and avoid common traps from fake market movements, ultimately improving their trading performance.
🔵 Setting
Opening Range : High and Low identification time range.
Extend : The time span of the dashed line.
Permit : Signal emission time range.
🔵 Conclusion
The Judas Swing strategy (ICT Judas Swing) is a powerful tool in technical analysis that helps traders identify fake moves and align their trades with institutional actions, reducing risk and enhancing their ability to capitalize on market opportunities.
By leveraging key levels such as range highs and lows, fake breakouts, and candlestick confirmations, traders can enter trades with more precision. This strategy is applicable in forex, stocks, and other financial markets and, with proper risk management, can lead to consistent trading success.
Risk Reward CalculatorPlanning your trading is an important step that you must do before buying the stock.
Risk and Reward Calculator is an important tool for the trader.
With this calculator, you only need to put the capital for one trade and it will automaticaly put the plan for you. But if you want to enter your plan for buy and sell, you just need to check the button and enter the number. the risk and reward calculator will suggest position size based on the information.
The Steps to use Risk Reward Calculator
1. enter how many percentage you can accept if your analysis is wrong.
2. enter how much money you want to trade
3. it will automaticaly calculate the plan for you
4. you can change the reward
5. but if you want to enter your own number, you can check the box. After that enter the number you want for your new plan.
Vertical Lines & Price RangeThis Pine Script indicator visually marks significant historical price points on the chart by drawing vertical lines at intervals of 6 months, 3 months, and 1 month ago. Each vertical line is accompanied by a label indicating the time frame (6M, 3M, 1M). Additionally, it calculates and displays the percentage change between the closing prices at 6 months ago and 3 months ago, as well as between 3 months ago and 1 month ago, using horizontal lines to connect these price points. This tool is useful for analyzing trends and price movements over time, providing traders with a clear visual representation of historical performance.
Business Cycle Indicators (Normalized)This script aggregates and normalizes several key economic indicators to provide a comprehensive view of the business cycle and overall market conditions. By combining these indicators into a single, normalized average line, the script helps identify overarching trends and shifts in the economy, aiding in more informed trading and investment decisions.
Included Indicators:
Inverted National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI):
Symbol: FRED:NFCI
Measures financial stress in the markets. An inverted NFCI aligns higher values with positive financial conditions.
Inverted Net Percentage of Banks Tightening Lending Standards (DRTSCIS):
Symbol: FRED:DRTSCIS
Reflects changes in bank lending practices. Inverting this indicator means higher values indicate easing lending standards, which is generally positive for economic growth.
HYG Close Price (iShares High Yield Corporate Bond ETF):
Symbol: AMEX:HYG
Represents the performance of high-yield corporate bonds, providing insight into credit market conditions.
Inverted High-Yield Credit Spread (BAMLH0A0HYM2):
Symbol: FRED:BAMLH0A0HYM2
Measures the spread between high-yield bonds and risk-free securities. A narrower (inverted) spread indicates better market conditions.
Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing New Orders Ratio:
Symbols: ECONOMICS:USMNO (Manufacturing), ECONOMICS:USNMNO (Non-Manufacturing)
Compares manufacturing to non-manufacturing new orders to gauge shifts in economic activity.
US PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index):
Symbol: ECONOMICS:USBCOI
An indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector.
10-Year Inflation Breakeven (T10YIE):
Symbol: FRED:T10YIE
Represents market expectations of inflation over the next ten years.
Inverted 10-Year Real Yield (DFII10):
Symbol: FRED:DFII10
Reflects the real yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). Inverted to align higher values with positive economic sentiment.
Copper/Gold Ratio:
Symbols: CAPITALCOM:COPPER (Copper), TVC:GOLD (Gold)
Compares the prices of copper and gold, often used as a barometer for global economic activity.
Features:
Normalized Indicators: Each indicator is normalized to a 0-100 scale to facilitate direct comparison, regardless of their original units or scales.
Normalized Average Line: Calculates and plots the average of all available normalized indicators, providing a single line that represents the combined economic signals.
Customizable Display:
Show Individual Indicators: Option to display individual normalized indicators for detailed analysis.
Show Normalized Average Line: Option to display the normalized average line for a consolidated view.
Dynamic Labeling: Displays the latest value of the normalized average directly on the chart for quick reference.
How to Use:
Adding the Script:
Apply the script to a chart in TradingView using a timeframe that aligns with the frequency of the economic data (daily or weekly recommended).
Customization:
Show Normalized Average Line: Enabled by default to display the combined indicator.
Show Individual Indicators: Enable this option in the script settings to display all individual normalized indicators.
Interpretation:
Normalized Scale (0-100): Higher values generally indicate stronger economic conditions, while lower values may suggest weakening conditions.
Trend Analysis: Use the normalized average line to identify trends and potential turning points in the business cycle.
Notes:
Data Availability: Ensure you have access to all the data sources used in the script. Some data feeds may require specific TradingView subscriptions.
Indicator Limitations: Economic indicators are subject to revisions and may not reflect real-time market conditions.
No Investment Advice: This script is a tool for analysis and should not be considered as financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
Consecutive CandlesTrading as Easy as One, Two, and Three
Unlock the power of simplicity in trading with this innovative script inspired by KepalaBesi. Designed for traders of all levels, this script provides a user-friendly approach to market analysis, enabling you to make informed trading decisions effortlessly.
Key Features:
Simplified Signals: Receive clear buy and sell signals based on robust technical indicators. The script streamlines your trading process, allowing you to focus on execution rather than analysis.
Customizable Settings: Tailor the script to fit your trading style. Adjust parameters to suit your risk tolerance and market preferences, ensuring a personalized trading experience.
Visual Clarity: Benefit from intuitive visual cues on your chart, making it easy to identify optimal entry and exit points. The clean interface helps you make quick decisions without confusion.
Whether you’re a seasoned trader or just starting, "Trading as Easy as One, Two, and Three" simplifies your trading journey, turning complex strategies into straightforward actions. Embrace a more efficient way to trade and elevate your performance in the markets!
Get Started Today!
Join the community of traders who have discovered the ease of trading with KepalaBesi's inspired script. Elevate your trading experience and achieve your financial goals with confidence!
Overnight Positioning w EMA - Strategy [presentTrading]I've recently started researching Market Timing strategies, and it’s proving to be quite an interesting area of study. The idea of predicting optimal times to enter and exit the market, based on historical data and various indicators, brings a dynamic edge to trading. Additionally, it is integrated with the 3commas bot for automated trade execution.
I'm still working on it. Welcome to share your point of view.
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Overnight Positioning with EMA " is designed to capitalize on market inefficiencies during the overnight trading period. This strategy takes a position shortly before the market closes and exits shortly after it opens the following day. What sets this strategy apart is the integration of an optional Exponential Moving Average (EMA) filter, which ensures that trades are aligned with the underlying trend. The strategy provides flexibility by allowing users to select between different global market sessions, such as the US, Asia, and Europe.
It is integrated with the 3commas bot for automated trade execution and has a built-in mechanism to avoid holding positions over the weekend by force-closing positions on Fridays before the market closes.
BTCUSD 20 mins Performance
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
The core logic of this strategy is simple: enter trades before market close and exit them after market open, taking advantage of potential price movements during the overnight period. Here’s how it works in more detail:
🔶 Market Timing
The strategy determines the local market open and close times based on the selected market (US, Asia, Europe) and adjusts entry and exit points accordingly. The entry is triggered a specific number of minutes before market close, and the exit is triggered a specific number of minutes after market open.
🔶 EMA Filter
The strategy includes an optional EMA filter to help ensure that trades are taken in the direction of the prevailing trend. The EMA is calculated over a user-defined timeframe and length. The entry is only allowed if the closing price is above the EMA (for long positions), which helps to filter out trades that might go against the trend.
The EMA formula:
```
EMA(t) = +
```
Where:
- EMA(t) is the current EMA value
- Close(t) is the current closing price
- n is the length of the EMA
- EMA(t-1) is the previous period's EMA value
🔶 Entry Logic
The strategy monitors the market time in the selected timezone. Once the current time reaches the defined entry period (e.g., 20 minutes before market close), and the EMA condition is satisfied, a long position is entered.
- Entry time calculation:
```
entryTime = marketCloseTime - entryMinutesBeforeClose * 60 * 1000
```
🔶 Exit Logic
Exits are triggered based on a specified time after the market opens. The strategy checks if the current time is within the defined exit period (e.g., 20 minutes after market open) and closes any open long positions.
- Exit time calculation:
exitTime = marketOpenTime + exitMinutesAfterOpen * 60 * 1000
🔶 Force Close on Fridays
To avoid the risk of holding positions over the weekend, the strategy force-closes any open positions 5 minutes before the market close on Fridays.
- Force close logic:
isFriday = (dayofweek(currentTime, marketTimezone) == dayofweek.friday)
█ Trade Direction
This strategy is designed exclusively for long trades. It enters a long position before market close and exits the position after market open. There is no shorting involved in this strategy, and it focuses on capturing upward momentum during the overnight session.
█ Usage
This strategy is suitable for traders who want to take advantage of price movements that occur during the overnight period without holding positions for extended periods. It automates entry and exit times, ensuring that trades are placed at the appropriate times based on the market session selected by the user. The 3commas bot integration also allows for automated execution, making it ideal for traders who wish to set it and forget it. The strategy is flexible enough to work across various global markets, depending on the trader's preference.
█ Default Settings
1. entryMinutesBeforeClose (Default = 20 minutes):
This setting determines how many minutes before the market close the strategy will enter a long position. A shorter duration could mean missing out on potential movements, while a longer duration could expose the position to greater price fluctuations before the market closes.
2. exitMinutesAfterOpen (Default = 20 minutes):
This setting controls how many minutes after the market opens the position will be exited. A shorter exit time minimizes exposure to market volatility at the open, while a longer exit time could capture more of the overnight price movement.
3. emaLength (Default = 100):
The length of the EMA affects how the strategy filters trades. A shorter EMA (e.g., 50) reacts more quickly to price changes, allowing more frequent entries, while a longer EMA (e.g., 200) smooths out price action and only allows entries when there is a stronger underlying trend.
The effect of using a longer EMA (e.g., 200) would be:
```
EMA(t) = +
```
4. emaTimeframe (Default = 240):
This is the timeframe used for calculating the EMA. A higher timeframe (e.g., 360) would base entries on longer-term trends, while a shorter timeframe (e.g., 60) would respond more quickly to price movements, potentially allowing more frequent trades.
5. useEMA (Default = true):
This toggle enables or disables the EMA filter. When enabled, trades are only taken when the price is above the EMA. Disabling the EMA allows the strategy to enter trades without any trend validation, which could increase the number of trades but also increase risk.
6. Market Selection (Default = US):
This setting determines which global market's open and close times the strategy will use. The selection of the market affects the timing of entries and exits and should be chosen based on the user's preference or geographic focus.
Cumulative Volume Delta Histogram [TradingFinder] CVD Histogram🔵 Introduction
To fully understand Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), it’s important to start by explaining Volume Delta. In trading, "Delta" refers to the difference between two values or the rate of change between two data points. Volume Delta represents the difference between buying and selling pressure for each candlestick on a chart, and this difference can vary across different time frames.
A positive delta indicates that buying volume exceeds selling volume, while a negative delta shows that selling pressure is stronger. When buying and selling volumes are equal, the volume delta equals zero.
The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) indicator tracks the cumulative difference between buying and selling volumes over time, helping traders analyze market dynamics and identify reliable trading signals through CVD divergences.
🔵 How to Use
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is an essential technical analysis tool that aggregates delta values for each candlestick, creating a comprehensive indicator. This helps traders evaluate overall buying and selling pressure over market swings.
Unlike standard Volume Delta, which compares the delta on a candle-by-candle basis, CVD provides a broader view of buying and selling pressure during market trends. A downward-trending CVD suggests that selling pressure is dominant, which is typically a bearish signal.
Conversely, an upward-trending CVD indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting buyers are in control. This analysis becomes even more valuable when compared with price action and market structure, helping traders predict the direction of asset prices.
🟣 How to Use CVD in Trend Analysis and Market Reversals
Understanding how to detect trend changes using Cumulative Volume Delta is crucial for traders. Typically, CVD aligns with market structure, moving in the same direction as price trends.
However, divergences between CVD and price movements or signs of volume exhaustion can be powerful indicators of potential market reversals. Recognizing these patterns helps traders make more informed decisions and improve their trading strategies.
🟣 How to Spot Trend Exhaustion with CVD
CVD is particularly effective for identifying trend exhaustion in the market. For instance, if an asset's price hits a new low, but CVD doesn’t follow, this might indicate a lack of seller interest, signaling potential exhaustion and a possible reversal.
Similarly, if an asset reaches a new high but CVD fails to follow, it can suggest that buyers lack the strength to push the market higher, indicating a possible reversal to the downside.
🟣 How to Use CVD Divergence in Price Trend Analysis
Another effective use of CVD is identifying divergences in price trends. For example, if CVD breaks a previous high or low while the price remains stable, this divergence may indicate that buying or selling pressure is being absorbed.
For instance, if CVD rises sharply without a corresponding increase in asset prices, it may suggest that sellers are absorbing the buying pressure, which could lead to a strong sell-off. Conversely, if prices remain stable while CVD declines, it may indicate that buyers are absorbing selling pressure, likely leading to a price increase once the selling subsides.
🟣 CVD Display, Candlestick vs. Histogram – What’s the Difference?
CVD can be displayed in two different formats :
Candlestick Display : In this format, the data is shown as green and red candlesticks, each representing the difference in buying and selling pressure over a given time period. This display allows traders to visually analyze market pressure along with price changes.
Histogram Display : Here, the data is represented as vertical green and red bars, where each bar’s height corresponds to the volume delta. This format offers a clearer view of the strengths and weaknesses in market buying and selling pressure.
🟣 What are the Key Settings for CVD?
Cumulative Mode : CVD offers three modes: "Total," "Periodic," and "EMA." In "Total" mode, CVD accumulates the delta from the beginning to the end of the session. In "Periodic" mode, it accumulates volume periodically, resetting at specific intervals. In "EMA" mode, the CVD is smoothed using an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to filter out short-term fluctuations.
Period : The "Period" setting allows you to define the number of bars or intervals for "Periodic" and "EMA" modes. A shorter period captures more short-term movements, while a longer period smooths out the fluctuations and provides a broader view of market trends.
Market Ultra Data : This feature integrates data from 26 major brokers into the volume calculations, providing more reliable volume data. It’s important to specify the type of market you are analyzing (Forex, crypto, etc.) as different brokers contribute to different markets. Enabling this setting ensures the highest accuracy in volume analysis.
🔵 Conclusion
Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is a powerful technical indicator that helps traders assess buying and selling pressure by aggregating the delta values of each candlestick. Whether displayed as candlesticks or histograms, CVD provides insights into market trends, helping traders make informed decisions.
CVD is particularly useful in identifying divergences and exhaustion in market trends. For example, if CVD does not align with price movements, it can signal a potential trend reversal. Traders use this tool to fine-tune their entry and exit points and better predict future market movements.
In summary, CVD is a versatile tool for analyzing volume data and understanding the balance of buying and selling pressure in the market, making it an invaluable asset in any trader’s toolkit
Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend TableThe "Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend Table" (VSLRT Table) script helps traders identify buy and sell opportunities by analyzing price trends and volume dynamics across multiple timeframes. It uses linear regression to calculate the trend direction and volume strength, visually representing this data with color-coded signals on the chart and in a table. Green signals indicate buying opportunities, while red signals suggest selling, with volume acting as confirmation of trend strength. Traders can use these signals for both short and long positions, with additional risk management and multi-timeframe validation to enhance the strategy.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
To use the "Volume-Supported Linear Regression Trend Table" (VSLRT Table) script in a trading strategy, you would incorporate it into your decision-making process to identify potential buy and sell opportunities based on the trend and volume dynamics. Here’s how you could apply it for trading:
1. Understanding the Key Elements:
Trend Direction (Slope of Price): The script uses linear regression to assess the trend direction of the price. If the price slope is positive, the asset is likely in an uptrend; if it's negative, the asset is in a downtrend.
Volume-Backed Signals: The buy or sell signal is not only based on the price trend but also on volume. Volume is crucial in validating the strength of a trend; large volume often indicates strong interest in a direction.
2. Interpreting the Table and Signals:
The table displayed at the bottom-right of your TradingView chart gives you a clear overview of the trends across different timeframes:
Trend Colors:
Green hues (e.g., ccol11, ccol12, etc.): Indicate a buying trend supported by volume.
Red hues (e.g., ccol21, ccol22, etc.): Indicate a selling trend supported by volume.
Gray: Indicates weak or unclear trends where no decisive direction is present.
Buy/Sell Signals:
The script plots triangles on the chart:
Upward triangle below the bar signals a potential buy.
Downward triangle above the bar signals a potential sell.
3. Building a Trading Strategy:
Here’s how you can incorporate the script’s information into a trading strategy:
Buy Signal (Long Entry):
Look for green triangles (indicating a buy signal) below a bar.
Confirm that the trend color in the table for the relevant timeframe is green, which shows that the buy signal is supported by strong volume.
Ensure that the price is in an uptrend (positive slope) and that volume is increasing on upward moves, as this indicates buying interest.
Execute a long position when these conditions align.
Sell Signal (Short Entry):
Look for red triangles (indicating a sell signal) above a bar.
Confirm that the trend color in the table for the relevant timeframe is red, which shows that the sell signal is supported by strong volume.
Ensure that the price is in a downtrend (negative slope) and that volume is increasing on downward moves, indicating selling pressure.
Execute a short position when these conditions align.
Exiting the Trade:
Exit a long position when a sell signal (red triangle) appears, or when the trend color in the table shifts to red.
Exit a short position when a buy signal (green triangle) appears, or when the trend color in the table shifts to green.
4. Multi-Timeframe Confirmation:
The script provides trends across multiple timeframes (tf1, tf2, tf3), which can help in validating your trade:
Short-Term Trading: Use shorter timeframes (e.g., 3, 5 minutes) for intraday trades. If both short and medium timeframes align in trend direction (e.g., both showing green), it strengthens the signal.
Longer-Term Trading: If you are trading on a higher timeframe (e.g., daily or weekly), confirm that the lower timeframes align with your intended trade direction.
5. Adding Risk Management:
Stop-Loss: Place stop-losses below recent lows (for long trades) or above recent highs (for short trades) to minimize risk.
Take Profit: Consider taking profit at key support/resistance levels or based on a fixed risk-to-reward ratio (e.g., 2:1).
Example Strategy Flow:
For Long (Buy) Trade:
Signal: A green triangle appears below a candle (Buy signal).
Trend Confirmation: Check that the color in the table for your selected timeframe is green, confirming the trend is supported by volume.
Execute Long: Enter a long trade if the price is trending upward (positive price slope).
Exit Long: Exit when a red triangle appears above a candle (Sell signal) or if the trend color shifts to red in the table.
For Short (Sell) Trade:
Signal: A red triangle appears above a candle (Sell signal).
Trend Confirmation: Check that the color in the table for your selected timeframe is red, confirming the trend is supported by volume.
Execute Short: Enter a short trade if the price is trending downward (negative price slope).
Exit Short: Exit when a green triangle appears below a candle (Buy signal) or if the trend color shifts to green in the table.
6. Fine-Tuning:
Backtesting: Before trading live, use TradingView’s backtesting features to test the strategy on historical data and optimize the settings (e.g., length of linear regression, timeframe).
Combine with Other Indicators: Use this strategy alongside other technical indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD) for better confirmation.
In summary, the script helps identify trends with volume support, giving more confidence in buy/sell decisions. Combining these signals with risk management and multi-timeframe analysis can create a solid trading strategy.
90 Minute Cycles Full90-Minute Cycles Indicator for London and NY Sessions
This is a more streamlined version of the 90-minute cycle indicator by sunwoo101.
The 90-Minute Cycles Indicator is built to help traders easily follow and trade around key market cycles during the London and New York sessions. Marking important 90-minute intervals and highlighting the True Cycle Open Price provides clear visual cues to help you make more informed trading decisions.
Key Features:
90-Minute Cycles for London and NY: The indicator automatically draws vertical lines marking every 90-minute cycle for the London and NY sessions. These lines are great for timing your trades and spotting potential shifts in market momentum.
True Cycle Open Price: A horizontal line is drawn at the True Cycle Open Price, which stays visible throughout the session. This gives you a key reference point for price levels that tend to act as support or resistance.
Customizable Visuals: You can fully personalize the indicator’s appearance - adjusting the colors and line styles and even controlling when the lines appear - so it blends perfectly with your existing charts.
All Cycles Drawn from the Start: Unlike other indicators, this one draws all the 90-minute cycles right when the session begins, so you can see the full day’s potential market moves as soon as the first cycle starts.
What’s Different About This Indicator:
London Session Support: In addition to the NY session, you now have 90-minute cycles for the London session, complete with its own True Cycle Open Price.
Better Customization: You have more control over the visual aspects of the indicator, so it can be tailored to fit your specific charting preferences.
Complete Cycle Visibility: All cycles are drawn immediately when the session starts, providing a full view of the day’s key moments right from the opening.
How to Use:
This indicator is perfect for scalping and short-term trading. Whether trading Forex or Indices and following SMT concepts, the cycle timing can help you pinpoint the best times for entering and exiting trades. The True Cycle Open Price is a crucial level of support or resistance throughout the session, making it a key marker to watch.
Scalpers: Use the 90-minute cycle lines to time your trades with the market's rhythm.
Day Traders: This indicator tracks the London and NY sessions, making it an excellent tool for day trading strategies where timing is critical.
Multi-Session Support:
Whether you're trading the London or New York session, the indicator will automatically adjust to your time zone and align the cycles to the relevant session. This helps you stay on top of key market activity across major trading hubs without changing anything manually.
Magnificent 7 Overall Percentage Change with MA and Angle LabelsMagnificent 7 Overall Percentage Change with MA and Angle Labels
Overview:
The "Magnificent 7 Overall Percentage Change with MA and Angle Labels" indicator tracks the percentage change of seven key tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, NVIDIA, Tesla, Meta, and Alphabet) and displays their overall average percentage change on the chart. It also provides a moving average of this overall change and calculates the angle of the moving average to help traders gauge the momentum and direction of the overall trend.
How it works:
Real-Time Percentage Change: The indicator calculates the percentage change of each of the "Magnificent 7" stocks compared to their previous day's closing price, giving a snapshot of the market's performance.
Overall Average: It then computes the average of the seven stocks' percentage changes to reflect the broader movement of these major tech companies.
Moving Average: The indicator offers a choice of four types of moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, or VWMA) to smooth the overall percentage change, allowing traders to focus on the trend rather than short-term fluctuations.
Slope and Angle Calculation: To provide additional insights, the indicator calculates the slope of the moving average and converts it into an angle (in degrees). This can help traders determine the strength of the trend—steeper angles often indicate stronger momentum.
Key Features:
Percentage Change of the "Magnificent 7":
Tracks the percentage change of Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), Meta (META), and Alphabet (GOOGL) on the current chart's timeframe.
Overall Average Change:
Computes the average percentage change across all seven stocks, giving a combined view of how the most influential tech stocks are performing.
Customizable Moving Averages:
Offers four types of moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA) to provide flexibility in tracking the trend of the overall percentage change.
Angle Calculation:
Measures the angle of the moving average in degrees, which helps assess the strength of the market’s momentum. Alerts and visual cues can be triggered based on the angle's steepness.
Visual Cues:
The percentage change is plotted in green when positive and red when negative, with a background color that changes accordingly. A zero line is plotted for reference.
Use Case:
This indicator is ideal for traders and investors looking to track the collective performance of the most dominant tech companies in the market. It provides real-time insights into how the "Magnificent 7" stocks are moving together and offers clues about potential market momentum based on the direction and angle of their average percentage change.
Customization:
Moving Average Type and Length: Choose between different types of moving averages (SMA, EMA, WMA, VWMA) and adjust the length to suit your preferred timeframe.
Angle Threshold: Set an angle threshold to trigger alerts when the moving average slope becomes too steep, indicating strong momentum.
Alerts:
Alerts can be created based on the crossing of the moving average or when the angle of the moving average exceeds a specified threshold. This ensures traders are notified when the trend is accelerating or decelerating significantly.
Conclusion:
The "Magnificent 7 Overall Percentage Change with MA and Angle Labels" indicator is a powerful tool for those wanting to monitor the performance of the most influential tech stocks, analyze their overall trend, and receive timely alerts when market conditions shift.
Candle Speed and AccelerationCandle Speed and Acceleration Indicator
This indicator calculates the speed and acceleration of candlesticks in points per minute (P/M), providing traders with insights into the momentum and volatility of price movements during the trading session.
Features:
Speed Calculation: Measures the change in price per minute, helping you understand how quickly the market is moving.
Acceleration Measurement: Tracks the change in speed between consecutive candles, offering an additional layer of momentum analysis.
Real-Time Display: Shows the current, previous, and second previous candles' speed and acceleration in a table on the chart.
Crosshair Integration: Displays speed and acceleration at the crosshair location, offering instant feedback as you hover over the chart.
Alerts: Notifies you when candle speed exceeds a customizable threshold, helping you catch significant market moves as they happen.
Permanent Markers: Marks candles on the chart when the speed threshold is exceeded, visually highlighting high-speed candles.
This tool is essential for traders who want to analyze the momentum and acceleration of market movements, providing clear visual cues and alerts for potential trading opportunities.
[Becak] - Swing Point Retracement & Prediction" - Swing Point Retracement & Prediction," is designed to identify swing points in price action, calculate retracement levels, and predict potential future price levels. It's a technical analysis tool that can help traders identify potential support and resistance levels, as well as possible reversal points.
HOW IT WORK
Swing Point Detection:
The indicator uses the ta.pivothigh() and ta.pivotlow() functions to identify swing highs and lows within a specified lookback period.
Retracement Levels:
When a new swing point is detected, the indicator calculates a retracement level based on the user-defined retracement percentage. It draws a dashed blue line at the retracement level, along with a yellow circle and a label showing the price.
Swing Point Labeling:
Swing highs are marked with a green "H" label and the price, and Swing lows are marked with a red "L" label and the price.
Price Prediction:
Based on the most recent swing point, the indicator attempts to predict the next potential high or low. It draws a purple dashed line extending into the future, indicating the predicted price level.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR:
adjust the input parameters:
"Swing Point Lookback": Determines how far back the indicator looks to identify swing points. A larger value will result in fewer, more significant swing points.
"Retracement %": Sets the percentage for calculating retracement levels. 50% is a common Fibonacci retracement level, but you can adjust this based on your trading strategy.
"Prediction Length": Determines how far into the future the prediction line extends.
Interpret the results:
Use the swing point labels (H and L) to quickly identify recent highs and lows. The blue dashed lines and yellow circles indicate potential support or resistance levels based on the retracement percentage. The purple dashed line shows a potential future price target. This can be used to set profit targets or identify potential reversal zones.
Combine with other analysis:
This indicator works best when combined with other forms of analysis, such as trend lines, moving averages, or candlestick patterns.
Use the retracement levels and predictions as potential entry or exit points, but always confirm with other indicators or price action signals.
Inflation-Adjusted Price IndicatorThis indicator allows traders to adjust historical prices for inflation using customizable CPI data. The script computes the adjusted price by selecting a reference date, the original price, and the CPI source (US CPI or custom input) and plots it as a line on the chart. Additionally, a table summarizes the adjusted price values and average and total inflation rates.
While the indicator serves as a standalone tool to understand inflation's impact on prices, it is a supportive element in more advanced trading strategies requiring accurate analysis of inflation-adjusted data.
Disclaimer
Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results.
Due to various factors, including changing market conditions, the strategy may no longer perform as well as in historical backtesting.
This post and the script don’t provide any financial advice.
ICT CheckListCredit to the owner of this script "TalesOfTrader"
The Awakening Checklist indicator is a tool designed to help traders evaluate certain key market conditions and elements before making trading decisions. It consists of a series of questions that the trader must answer using the options "Yes", "No" or "N/A" (not applicable).
“Has Asia Session ended?” : This question aims to determine if the Asian trading session has ended. The answer to this question can influence trading strategies depending on market conditions.
“Have you identified potential medium induction?” : This question concerns the identification of potential average inductions on the market. Recognizing these inductions can help traders anticipate future price movements.
"Have you identified potential PoI's": This question asks about the identification of potential points of interest on the market. These points of interest can indicate areas of significant support or resistance.
"Have you identified in which direction they are creating lQ?" : This question aims to determine in which direction market participants create liquidity (lQ). Understanding this dynamic can help make informed trade decisions.
“Have they induced Asia Range”: This question concerns the induction of the Asian range by market participants. Recognizing this induction can be important in assessing future price movements.
“Have you had a medium induction”: This question asks about the presence of a medium induction on the market. The answer to this question can influence trading prospects.
“Do you have a BoS away from the induction”: This question aims to find out if the trader has an offer (BoS) far from the identified induction. This can be a risk management strategy.
"Doas your induction PoI have imbalance": This question concerns the imbalance of points of interest (PoI) linked to induction. Recognizing this imbalance can help anticipate price movements.
“Do you have a valid target in mind”: This question aims to find out if the trader has a clear trading objective in mind. Having a goal can help guide trading decisions and manage risk.
Volume Performance Table (Weekdays Only)This is a volume performance table that compares the volume from the previous trading day to the average daily volume from the previous week, month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month period in order to show where the rate of change of volume is contributing to the price trend.
For example, if the price trend is bullish and volume is accelerating, that is a bullish confirmation.
If the price is bearish and volume is accelerating, that is a bearish confirmation.
If the price is bullish and volume is decelerating, that is a bearish divergence.
If the price is bearish and volume is decelerating, that is a bullish divergence.
This does not include weekend trading when applied to digital assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Sessions Full Markets [TradingFinder] Forex Stocks Index 7 Time🔵 Introduction
In global financial markets, particularly in FOREX and stocks, precise timing of trading sessions plays a crucial role in the success of traders. Each trading session—Asian, European, and American—has its own unique characteristics in terms of volatility and trading volume.
The Asian session (Tokyo), Sydney session, Shanghai session, European session (London and Frankfurt), and American session (New York AM and New York PM) are examples of these trading sessions, each of which opens and closes at specific times.
This session indicator also includes a Time Convertor, enabling users to view FOREX market hours based on GMT, UTC, EST, and local time. Another valuable feature of this indicator is the automatic detection of Daylight Saving Time (DST), which automatically applies time changes for the New York, London, and Sydney sessions.
🔵 How to Use
The indicator also displays session times based on the exact opening and closing times for each geographic region. Users can utilize this indicator to view trading hours either locally or in UTC time, and if needed, set their own custom trading times.
Additionally, the session information table includes the start and end times of each session and whether they are open or closed. This functionality helps traders make better trading decisions by using accurate and precise time data.
Key Features of the Session Indicator
The session indicator is a versatile and advanced tool that provides several unique features for traders.
Some of these features are :
• Automatic Daylight Saving Time (DST) Detection : This indicator dynamically detects Daylight Saving Time (DST) changes for various trading sessions, including New York, London, and Sydney, without requiring manual adjustments. This feature allows traders to manage their trades without worrying about time changes.
Below are the start and end dates for DST in the New York, London, and Sydney trading sessions :
1. New York :
Start of DST: Second Sunday of March, at 2:00 AM.
End of DST: First Sunday of November, at 2:00 AM
2. London :
Start of DST: Last Sunday of March, at 1:00 AM.
End of DST: Last Sunday of October, at 2:00 AM.
3. Sydney :
Start of DST: First Sunday of October, at 2:00 AM.
End of DST: First Sunday of April, at 3:00 AM.
• Session Display Based on Different Time Zones : The session indicator allows users to view trading times based on different time zones, such as UTC, the local time of each market, or the user’s local time. This feature is especially useful for traders operating in diverse geographic regions.
• Custom Trading Time Setup : Another notable feature of this indicator is the ability to set custom trading times. Traders can adjust their own trading times according to their personal strategies and benefit from this flexibility.
• Session Information Table : The session indicator provides a complete information table that includes the exact start and end times of each trading session and whether they are open or closed. This table helps users simultaneously and accurately monitor the status of all trading sessions and make better trading decisions.
🟣 Session Trading Hours Based on Market Mode and Time Zones
The session indicator provides precise information on the start and end times of trading sessions.
These times are adjusted based on different market modes (FOREX, stocks, and TFlab suggestions) and time zones (UTC and local time) :
🟣 (FOREX Session Time) Forex Market Mode
• Sessions in UTC (DST inactive) :
Sydney: 22:00 - 06:00
Tokyo: 23:00 - 07:00
Shanghai: 01:00 - 09:00
Asia: 22:00 - 07:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:00
London: 08:00 - 16:00
New York: 13:00 - 21:00
• Sessions in UTC (DST active) :
Sydney: 21:00 - 05:00
Tokyo: 23:00 - 07:00
Shanghai: 01:00 - 09:00
Asia: 21:00 - 07:00
Europe: 06:00 - 15:00
London: 07:00 - 15:00
New York: 12:00 - 20:00
• Sessions in Local Time :
Sydney: 08:00 - 16:00
Tokyo: 08:00 - 16:00
Shanghai: 09:00 - 17:00
Asia: 22:00 - 07:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:00
London: 08:00 - 16:00
New York: 08:00 - 16:00
🟣 Stock Market Trading Hours (Stock Market Mode)
• Sessions in UTC (DST inactive) :
Sydney: 00:00 - 06:00
Asia: 00:00 - 06:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:30
London: 08:00 - 16:30
New York: 14:30 - 21:00
Tokyo: 00:00 - 06:00
Shanghai: 01:30 - 07:00
• Sessions in UTC (DST active) :
Sydney: 23:00 - 05:00
Asia: 23:00 - 06:00
Europe: 06:00 - 15:30
London: 07:00 - 15:30
New York: 13:30 - 20:00
Tokyo: 00:00 - 06:00
Shanghai: 01:30 - 07:00
• Sessions in Local Time:
Sydney: 10:00 - 16:00
Tokyo: 09:00 - 15:00
Shanghai: 09:30 - 15:00
Asia: 00:00 - 06:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:30
London: 08:00 - 16:30
New York: 09:30 - 16:00
🟣 TFlab Suggestion Mode
• Sessions in UTC (DST inactive) :
Sydney: 23:00 - 05:00
Tokyo: 00:00 - 06:00
Shanghai: 01:00 - 09:00
Asia: 23:00 - 06:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:00
London: 08:00 - 16:00
New York: 13:00 - 21:00
• Sessions in UTC (DST active) :
Sydney: 22:00 - 04:00
Tokyo: 00:00 - 06:00
Shanghai: 01:00 - 09:00
Asia: 22:00 - 06:00
Europe: 06:00 - 15:00
London: 07:00 - 15:00
New York: 12:00 - 20:00
• Sessions in Local Time :
Sydney: 09:00 - 16:00
Tokyo: 09:00 - 15:00
Shanghai: 09:00 - 17:00
Asia: 23:00 - 06:00
Europe: 07:00 - 16:00
London: 08:00 - 16:00
New York: 08:00 - 16:00
🔵 Setting
Using the session indicator is straightforward and practical. Users can add this indicator to their trading chart and take advantage of its features.
The usage steps are as follows :
Selecting Market Mode : The user can choose one of the three main modes.
Forex Market Mode: Displays the forex market trading hours.
oStock Market Mode: Displays the trading hours of stock exchanges.
Custom Mode: Allows the user to set trading hours based on their needs.
TFlab Suggestion Mode: Displays the higher volume hours of the forex market in Asia.
Setting the Time Zone : The indicator allows displaying sessions based on various time zones. The user can select one of the following options:
UTC (Coordinated Universal Time)
Local Time of the Session
User’s Local Time
Displaying Comprehensive Session Information : The session information table includes the opening and closing times of each session and whether they are open or closed. This table helps users monitor all sessions at a glance and precisely set the best time for entering and exiting trades.
🔵Conclusion
The session indicator is a highly efficient and essential tool for active traders in the FOREX and stock markets. With its unique features, such as automatic DST detection and the ability to display sessions based on different time zones, the session indicator helps traders to precisely and efficiently adjust their trading activities.
This indicator not only shows users the exact opening and closing times of sessions, but by providing a session status table, it helps traders identify the best times to enter and exit trades. Moreover, the ability to set custom trading times allows traders to easily personalize their trading schedules according to their strategies.
In conclusion, using the session indicator ensures that traders are continuously and accurately informed of time changes and the opening and closing hours of markets, eliminating the need for manual updates to align with DST changes. These features enable traders to optimize their trading strategies with greater confidence and up-to-date information, allowing them to capitalize on opportunities in the market.
[TTM] ICT Key Levels🌟 Overview 🌟
This tool highlights key price levels, such as highs, lows, and session opens, that can influence market moves. Based on ICT concepts, these levels help traders spot potential areas for market reversals or trend continuations.
🌟 Key Levels 🌟
🔹 Week Open (00:00 EST)
Marks the start of the trading week. This level helps track price direction and is useful for framing the Weekly candle formation using ICT’s Power of 3.
🔹 Midnight Open (00:00 EST)
The Midnight Open (MNOP) marks the start of the new trading day. Price often retraces to this level for liquidity grabs, setting up larger moves in the daily trend. It's also key for framing the Daily Power of 3 and spotting possible market manipulation.
🔹 New York Stock Exchange Open (09:30 EST)
The NYSE Open is a major liquidity event, where price seeks liquidity from earlier in the day, like stop hunts or retracements to the London or Midnight Open. This time often brings reversals or trend continuations as volatility increases.
🔹 Previous Day High/Low
These levels show where liquidity rests, often serving as targets for price revisits, ideal for reversals or continuation trades.
🔹 Previous Week High/Low
Similar to daily levels but on a larger scale. They help identify swing trades and track broader market trends.
🔹 Previous Month High/Low
These monthly levels are important for long-term traders, as price often aims to clear them before setting new trends or market cycles.
Happy Trading!
TheTickMagnet
ADX + Volume Strategy### Strategy Description: ADX and Volume-Based Trading Strategy
This strategy is designed to identify strong market trends using the **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and confirm trading signals with **Volume**. The idea behind the strategy is to enter trades only when the market shows a strong trend (as indicated by ADX) and when the price movement is supported by high trading volume. This combination helps filter out weaker signals and provides more reliable entries into positions.
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX is a technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend, regardless of its direction (up or down).
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to determine whether the market is trending strongly. If ADX is above a certain threshold (default is 25), it indicates that a strong trend is present.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates the strength of the upward price movement.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates the strength of the downward price movement.
- ADX does not indicate the direction of the trend but confirms that a trend exists. DI+ and DI- are used to determine the direction.
2. **Volume**:
- **Purpose**: Volume is a key indicator for confirming the strength of a price movement. High volume suggests that a large number of market participants are supporting the movement, making it more likely to continue.
- **Usage**: The strategy compares the current volume to the 20-period moving average of the volume. The trade signal is confirmed if the current volume is greater than the average volume by a specified **Volume Multiplier** (default multiplier is 1.5). This ensures that the trade is supported by strong market participation.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions:**
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, signaling that the market is trending upward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the upward price movement is backed by sufficient market activity.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default is 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, signaling that the market is trending downward.
- The **current volume** is greater than the 20-period average volume multiplied by the **Volume Multiplier** (e.g., 1.5), indicating that the downward price movement is backed by strong selling activity.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when the opposite signal appears:
- **For long positions**: Close when the short conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI- > DI+, and the volume condition holds).
- **For short positions**: Close when the long conditions are met (ADX still above the threshold, DI+ > DI-, and the volume condition holds).
### Parameters:
- **ADX Period**: The period used to calculate ADX (default is 14). This controls how sensitive the ADX is to price movements.
- **ADX Threshold**: The minimum ADX value required for the strategy to consider the market trend as strong (default is 25). Higher values focus on stronger trends.
- **Volume Multiplier**: This parameter adjusts how much higher the current volume needs to be compared to the 20-period moving average for the signal to be valid. A value of 1.5 means the current volume must be 50% higher than the average volume.
### Example Trade Flow:
1. **Long Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI+ > DI-, confirming that the trend direction is upward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume (multiplied by 1.5).
- **Action**: Enter a long position.
2. **Short Trade Example**:
- ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
- DI- > DI+, confirming that the trend direction is downward.
- The current volume is 50% higher than the 20-period average volume.
- **Action**: Enter a short position.
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend Filtering**: The strategy ensures that trades are only taken when the market is trending strongly (confirmed by ADX) and that the price movement is supported by high volume, reducing the likelihood of false signals.
- **Volume Confirmation**: Using volume as confirmation provides an additional layer of reliability, as volume spikes often accompany sustained price moves.
- **Dual Signal Confirmation**: Both trend strength (ADX) and volume conditions must be met for a trade, making the strategy more robust.
### Weaknesses of the Strategy:
- **Limited Effectiveness in Range-Bound Markets**: Since the strategy relies on strong trends, it may underperform in sideways or non-trending markets where ADX stays below the threshold.
- **Lagging Nature of ADX**: ADX is a lagging indicator, which means that it may confirm the trend after it has already begun, potentially leading to late entries.
- **Volume Requirement**: In low-volume markets, the volume multiplier condition may not be met often, leading to fewer trade opportunities.
### Customization:
- **Adjust the ADX Threshold**: You can raise the threshold if you want to focus only on very strong trends, or lower it to capture moderate trends.
- **Adjust the Volume Multiplier**: You can change the multiplier to be more or less strict. A higher multiplier (e.g., 2.0) will require a stronger volume spike to confirm the signal, while a lower multiplier (e.g., 1.2) will allow more trades with weaker volume confirmation.
### Summary:
This ADX and Volume strategy is ideal for traders who want to follow strong trends while ensuring that the trend is supported by high trading volume. By combining a trend strength filter (ADX) and volume confirmation, the strategy aims to increase the probability of entering profitable trades while reducing the number of false signals. However, it may underperform in range-bound markets or in markets with low volume.
Trend Following ADX + Parabolic SAR### Strategy Description: Trend Following using **ADX** and **Parabolic SAR**
This strategy is designed to follow market trends using two popular indicators: **Average Directional Index (ADX)** and **Parabolic SAR**. The strategy attempts to enter trades when the market shows a strong trend (using ADX) and confirms the trend direction using the Parabolic SAR. Here's a breakdown:
### Key Indicators:
1. **ADX (Average Directional Index)**:
- **Purpose**: ADX measures the strength of a trend, regardless of direction.
- **Usage**: The strategy uses ADX to confirm that the market is trending. When ADX is above a certain threshold (e.g., 25), it indicates a strong trend.
- **Directional Indicators**:
- **DI+ (Directional Indicator Plus)**: Indicates upward movement strength.
- **DI- (Directional Indicator Minus)**: Indicates downward movement strength.
2. **Parabolic SAR**:
- **Purpose**: Parabolic SAR is a trend-following indicator used to identify potential reversals in the price direction.
- **Usage**: It provides specific price points above or below which the strategy confirms buy or sell signals.
### Strategy Logic:
#### **Entry Conditions**:
1. **Long Position** (Buy):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI+ > DI-**, indicating the upward trend is stronger than the downward.
- The price is above the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the upward trend.
2. **Short Position** (Sell):
- **ADX** is above the threshold (default: 25), indicating a strong trend.
- **DI- > DI+**, indicating the downward trend is stronger than the upward.
- The price is below the **Parabolic SAR** level, confirming the downward trend.
#### **Exit Conditions**:
- Positions are closed when an opposite signal is detected.
- For example, if a long position is open and the conditions for a short position are met, the long position is closed, and a short position is opened.
### Parameters:
1. **ADX Period**: Defines the length of the period for the ADX calculation (default: 14).
2. **ADX Threshold**: The minimum value of ADX to confirm a strong trend (default: 25).
3. **Parabolic SAR Start**: The initial step for the SAR (default: 0.02).
4. **Parabolic SAR Increment**: The step increment for SAR (default: 0.02).
5. **Parabolic SAR Max**: The maximum step for SAR (default: 0.2).
### Example Trade Flow:
#### **Long Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI+ > DI-, indicating the market is trending upward.
3. The price is above the Parabolic SAR, confirming the upward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a long (buy) position.
5. Exit the long position when a short signal is triggered (i.e., DI- > DI+, price below Parabolic SAR).
#### **Short Trade**:
1. ADX > 25, confirming a strong trend.
2. DI- > DI+, indicating the market is trending downward.
3. The price is below the Parabolic SAR, confirming the downward direction.
4. **Action**: Enter a short (sell) position.
5. Exit the short position when a long signal is triggered (i.e., DI+ > DI-, price above Parabolic SAR).
### Strengths of the Strategy:
- **Trend-Following**: It performs well in markets with strong trends, whether upward or downward.
- **Dual Confirmation**: The combination of ADX and Parabolic SAR reduces false signals by ensuring both trend strength and direction are considered before entering a trade.
### Weaknesses:
- **Range-Bound Markets**: This strategy may perform poorly in choppy, non-trending markets because both ADX and SAR are trend-following indicators.
- **Lagging Nature**: Since both ADX and SAR are lagging indicators, the strategy may enter trades after the trend has already started, potentially missing early profits.
### Customization:
- **ADX Threshold**: You can increase the threshold if you only want to trade in very strong trends, or lower it to capture more moderate trends.
- **SAR Parameters**: Adjusting the SAR `start`, `increment`, and `max` values will make the Parabolic SAR more or less sensitive to price changes.
### Summary:
This strategy combines the ADX and Parabolic SAR to take advantage of strong market trends. By confirming both trend strength (ADX) and trend direction (Parabolic SAR), it aims to enter high-probability trades in trending markets while minimizing false signals. However, it may struggle in sideways or non-trending markets.
For Educational purposes only !!!
Cypher Harmonic Pattern [TradingFinder] Cypher Pattern Detector🔵 Introduction
The Cypher Pattern is one of the most accurate and advanced harmonic patterns, introduced by Darren Oglesbee. The Cypher pattern, utilizing Fibonacci ratios and geometric price analysis, helps traders identify price reversal points with high precision. This pattern consists of five key points (X, A, B, C, and D), each playing an important role in determining entry and exit points in the financial markets.
The reversal point typically occurs in the XD region, with the Fibonacci ratio ranging between 0.768 and 0.886. This zone is referred to as the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), where traders anticipate price changes to occur.
The Cypher harmonic pattern is popular among professional traders due to its high accuracy in identifying market trends and reversal points. The pattern appears in two forms: bullish Cypher pattern and bearish Cypher pattern.
In the bullish Cypher pattern, after a price correction, the price moves upward, while in the bearish Cypher pattern, the price moves downward after a temporary increase. These patterns help traders use technical analysis to identify strong reversal points in the PRZ and execute more optimal trades.
Bullish Cypher Pattern :
Bearish Cypher Pattern :
🔵 How to Use
The Cypher pattern is one of the most complex and precise harmonic patterns, leveraging Fibonacci ratios to help traders identify price reversals. This pattern is comprised of five key points, each playing a critical role in determining entry and exit points.
The Cypher pattern appears in two main types :
Bullish Cypher pattern : This pattern appears as an M shape on the chart and indicates a trend reversal to the upside after a price correction. Traders can prepare for buying after identifying this pattern in technical analysis.
Bearish Cypher pattern : This pattern appears as a W shape and signals the start of a downtrend after a temporary price increase. Traders can use this pattern to enter short positions.
🟣 How to Identify the Cypher Pattern on a Chart
Identifying the Cypher pattern requires precision and the use of advanced technical analysis tools. The pattern consists of four main legs, each identified using Fibonacci ratios and geometric analysis.
To spot the Cypher pattern on a chart, first, identify the five key points : X, A, B, C, and D.
XA leg : The initial move from point X to A.
AB leg : The first correction after the XA move, where the price moves to point B.
BC leg : After the correction, the price moves upwards to point C.
CD leg : The final price move that reaches point D, where a price reversal is expected.
In a bullish Cypher pattern, point D indicates the start of a new uptrend, while in a bearish Cypher pattern, point D signals the beginning of a downtrend. Correctly identifying these points helps traders determine the best time to enter a trade.
🟣 How to Trade Using the Cypher Pattern
Once the Cypher pattern is identified on the chart, traders can use it to set entry and exit points. Point D is the key point for trade entry. In the bullish Cypher pattern, the trader can enter a long position after point D forms, while in the bearish Cypher pattern, point D serves as the ideal point for entering a short position.
🟣 Entering a Buy Trade with the Bullish Cypher Pattern
In a bullish Cypher pattern, traders wait for the price to reach point D, after which they can enter a buy position. At this point, the price is expected to start rising.
🟣 Entering a Sell Trade with the Bearish Cypher Pattern
In a bearish Cypher pattern, the trader enters a sell position at point D, expecting the price to move downward after reaching this point. For additional confirmation, traders can use technical indicators such as RSI or MACD.
🟣 Risk Management in Cypher Pattern Trades
Risk management is one of the most critical aspects of any trade, and this holds true for trading the Cypher pattern. Traders should always use stop-loss orders to prevent larger losses in case the pattern fails.
In the bullish Cypher pattern, the stop-loss is usually placed slightly below point D to exit the trade if the price continues to drop.
In the bearish Cypher pattern, the stop-loss is placed above point D to limit losses if the price rises unexpectedly.
🟣 Combining the Cypher Pattern with Other Technical Tools
The Cypher pattern is a powerful tool in technical analysis, but combining it with other methods such as price action and technical indicators can improve trading accuracy.
🟣 Combining with Price Action
Traders can use price action to confirm the Cypher pattern. Candlestick patterns like reversal candlesticks can provide additional confirmation for price reversals at point D.
🟣 Using Technical Indicators
Incorporating technical indicators such as RSI and MACD can also help traders receive stronger signals for entering trades based on the Cypher pattern. These indicators help identify overbought or oversold conditions, allowing traders to make more informed decisions.
🟣 Advantages and Disadvantages of the Cypher Pattern in Technical Analysis
Advantages :
High accuracy : The Cypher pattern, using Fibonacci ratios and geometric analysis, provides high precision in identifying reversal points.
Applicable in various markets : This pattern can be used in a wide range of financial markets, including forex, stocks, and cryptocurrencies.
Disadvantages :
Rarit y: The Cypher pattern appears less frequently on charts compared to other harmonic patterns.
Complexity : Accurately identifying this pattern requires significant experience, which may be challenging for novice traders.
🔵 Setting
🟣 Logical Setting
ZigZag Pivot Period : You can adjust the period so that the harmonic patterns are adjusted according to the pivot period you want. This factor is the most important parameter in pattern recognition.
Show Valid Forma t: If this parameter is on "On" mode, only patterns will be displayed that they have exact format and no noise can be seen in them. If "Off" is, the patterns displayed that maybe are noisy and do not exactly correspond to the original pattern.
Show Formation Last Pivot Confirm : if Turned on, you can see this ability of patterns when their last pivot is formed. If this feature is off, it will see the patterns as soon as they are formed. The advantage of this option being clear is less formation of fielded patterns, and it is accompanied by the latest pattern seeing and a sharp reduction in reward to risk.
Period of Formation Last Pivot : Using this parameter you can determine that the last pivot is based on Pivot period.
🟣 Genaral Setting
Show : Enter "On" to display the template and "Off" to not display the template.
Color : Enter the desired color to draw the pattern in this parameter.
LineWidth : You can enter the number 1 or numbers higher than one to adjust the thickness of the drawing lines. This number must be an integer and increases with increasing thickness.
LabelSize : You can adjust the size of the labels by using the "size.auto", "size.tiny", "size.smal", "size.normal", "size.large" or "size.huge" entries.
🟣 Alert Setting
Alert : On / Off
Message Frequency : This string parameter defines the announcement frequency. Choices include: "All" (activates the alert every time the function is called), "Once Per Bar" (activates the alert only on the first call within the bar), and "Once Per Bar Close" (the alert is activated only by a call at the last script execution of the real-time bar upon closing). The default setting is "Once per Bar".
Show Alert Time by Time Zone : The date, hour, and minute you receive in alert messages can be based on any time zone you choose. For example, if you want New York time, you should enter "UTC-4". This input is set to the time zone "UTC" by default.
🔵 Conclusion
The Cypher harmonic pattern is one of the most powerful and accurate patterns used in technical analysis. Its high precision in identifying price reversal points, particularly within the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ), has made it a popular tool among professional traders. The PRZ, located between the Fibonacci ratios of 0.768 and 0.886 in the XD region, offers traders a clear indication of where price reversals are likely to occur.
However, to use this pattern successfully, traders must employ proper risk management and combine it with supplementary tools like technical indicators and price action. By understanding how to utilize the PRZ, traders can enhance the accuracy of their trade entries and exits.
Ultimately, the Cypher pattern, when used in conjunction with the PRZ, helps traders make more precise decisions in the financial markets, leading to more successful and well-informed trades.
(Early Test) Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion# Enhancing Trading Strategies with the Weekly Seasonality Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
Amidst this pursuit to chase price, a common pitfall emerges: an overemphasis on price movements without adequate attention to risk management, probabilistic analysis, and strategic position sizing. To address these challenges, I developed the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator**. It is designed to refocus traders on essential aspects of trading, such as risk management and probabilistic returns, thereby catering to both short-term swing traders and long-term investors aiming for tax-efficient positions.
## The Motivation Behind the Indicator
### Overemphasis on Price: A Common Trading Pitfall
Many traders concentrate heavily on price charts and technical indicators, often neglecting the underlying principles of risk management and probabilistic analysis. This overemphasis on price can lead to:
- **Overtrading:** Making frequent trades based solely on price movements without considering the associated risks.
- **Poor Risk Management:** Failing to set appropriate stop-loss levels or position sizes, increasing the potential for significant losses.
- **Emotional Trading:** Letting emotions drive trading decisions rather than objective analysis, which can result in impulsive and irrational trades.
### The Need for Balanced Focus
To achieve sustained trading success, it is crucial to balance price analysis with robust risk management and probabilistic strategies. Key areas of focus include:
1. **Risk Management:** Implementing strategies to protect capital, such as setting stop-loss orders and determining appropriate position sizes based on risk tolerance.
2. **Probabilistic Analysis:** Assessing the likelihood of various market outcomes to make informed trading decisions.
3. **Swing Trading Percent Returns:** Capitalizing on short- to medium-term price movements by buying assets below their average return and selling them above.
## Introducing the Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator
The **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** is designed to integrate these essential elements into a comprehensive tool that aids traders in making informed, risk-aware decisions. Below, we explore the key components and functionalities of this indicator.
### Key Components of the Indicator
1. **Average Return (%)**
- **Definition:** The mean percentage return for each week across multiple years.
- **Purpose:** Serves as a benchmark to identify weeks with above or below-average performance, guiding buy and sell decisions.
2. **Positive Percentage (%)**
- **Definition:** The proportion of weeks that yielded positive returns.
- **Purpose:** Indicates the consistency of positive returns, helping traders gauge the reliability of certain weeks for trading.
3. **Volatility (%)**
- **Definition:** The standard deviation of weekly returns.
- **Purpose:** Measures the variability of returns, providing insights into the risk associated with trading during specific weeks.
4. **Kelly Ratio**
- **Definition:** A mathematical formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the logarithmic growth of capital.
- **Purpose:** Balances potential returns against risks, guiding traders on the appropriate position size to take.
5. **Adjusted Kelly Fraction**
- **Definition:** The Kelly Ratio adjusted based on user-defined risk tolerance and external factors like Federal Reserve (Fed) stance.
- **Purpose:** Personalizes the Kelly Criterion to align with individual risk preferences and market conditions, enhancing risk management.
6. **Position Size ($)**
- **Definition:** The calculated amount to invest based on the Adjusted Kelly Fraction.
- **Purpose:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with risk management strategies, preventing overexposure to any single trade.
7. **Max Drawdown (%)**
- **Definition:** The maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio, before a new peak is attained.
- **Purpose:** Assesses the worst-case scenario for losses, crucial for understanding potential capital erosion.
### Functionality and Benefits
- **Weekly Data Aggregation:** Aggregates weekly returns across multiple years to provide a robust statistical foundation for decision-making.
- **Quarterly Filtering:** Allows users to filter weeks based on quarters, enabling seasonality analysis and tailored strategies aligned with specific timeframes.
- **Dynamic Risk Adjustment:** Incorporates the Dynamic Kelly Criterion to adjust position sizes in real-time based on changing risk profiles and market conditions.
- **User-Friendly Visualization:** Presents all essential metrics in an organized Summary Table, facilitating quick and informed decision-making.
## The Origin of the Kelly Criterion and Addressing Its Limitations
### Understanding the Kelly Criterion
The Kelly Criterion, developed by John L. Kelly Jr. in 1956, is a formula used to determine the optimal size of a series of bets to maximize the long-term growth of capital. The formula considers both the probability of winning and the payout ratio, balancing potential returns against the risk of loss.
**Kelly Formula:**
\
Where:
- \( b \) = the net odds received on the wager ("b to 1")
- \( p \) = probability of winning
- \( q \) = probability of losing ( \( q = 1 - p \) )
### The Risk of Ruin
While the Kelly Criterion is effective in optimizing growth, it carries inherent risks:
- **Overbetting:** If the input probabilities or payout ratios are misestimated, the Kelly Criterion can suggest overly aggressive position sizes, leading to significant losses.
- **Assumption of Constant Probabilities:** The criterion assumes that probabilities remain constant, which is rarely the case in dynamic markets.
- **Ignoring External Factors:** Traditional Kelly implementations do not account for external factors such as Federal Reserve rates, margin requirements, or market volatility, which can impact risk and returns.
### Addressing Traditional Limitations
Recognizing these limitations, the **Weekly Seasonality with Dynamic Kelly Criterion Indicator** introduces enhancements to the traditional Kelly approach:
- **Incorporation of Fed Stance:** Adjusts the Kelly Fraction based on the current stance of the Federal Reserve (neutral, dovish, or hawkish), reflecting broader economic conditions that influence market behavior.
- **Margin and Leverage Considerations:** Accounts for margin rates and leverage, ensuring that position sizes remain within manageable risk parameters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Continuously updates position sizes based on real-time risk assessments and probabilistic analyses, mitigating the risk of ruin associated with static Kelly implementations.
## How the Indicator Aids Traders
### For Short-Term Swing Traders
Short-term swing traders thrive on capitalizing over weekly price movements. The indicator aids them by:
- **Identifying Favorable Weeks:** Highlights weeks with above-average returns and favorable volatility, guiding entry and exit points.
- **Optimal Position Sizing:** Utilizes the Adjusted Kelly Fraction to determine the optimal amount to invest, balancing potential returns with risk exposure.
- **Probabilistic Insights:** Provides metrics like Positive Percentage (%) and Kelly Ratio to assess the likelihood of favorable outcomes, enhancing decision-making.
### For Long-Term Tax-Free Investors
This is effectively a drop-in replacement for DCA which uses fixed position size that doesn't change based on market conditions, as a result, it's like catching multiple falling knifes by the blade and smiling with blood on your hand... I don't know about you, but I'd rather juggle by the hilt and look like an actual professional...
Long-term investors, especially those seeking tax-free positions (e.g., through retirement accounts), benefit from:
- **Consistent Risk Management:** Ensures that position sizes are aligned with long-term capital preservation strategies.
- **Seasonality Analysis:** Allows for strategic positioning based on historical performance trends across different weeks and quarters.
- **Dynamic Adjustments:** Adapts to changing market conditions, maintaining optimal risk profiles over extended investment horizons.
### Developers
Please double check the logic and functionality because I think there are a few issue and I need to crowd source solutions and be responsible about the code I publish. If you have corrections, please DM me or leave a respectful comment.
I want to publish this by the end of the year and include other things like highlighting triple witching weeks, adding columns for volume % stats, VaR and CVaR, alpha, beta (to see the seasonal alpha and beta based off a benchmark ticker and risk free rate ticker and other little goodies.
Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System
Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System
The TFM 10% Market Timing System
The Trend Following Moron TFM 10% System is a powerful trading tool designed using Pine Script™, following the principles outlined by Dave S. Landry. This script helps traders identify optimal entry and exit points based on moving averages and market trends.
What the Script Does:
Visual representation of trend strength.
As long as it is trending in green band, trend is very strong and price is contained within 5% of the high.
As price drops to yellow band, strength is weakening and caution is advised. Price is between 5% to 10% away from52 week high.
As price drops in red band, it is to be avoided as trend is rolling over. Price is more than 10% way from 52 week high.
Moving Averages Calculation:
Users can choose between Simple Moving Average (SMA) and Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for daily, weekly, and monthly periods. The script calculates the moving averages to provide trend direction.
Trend Color Coding:
Moving averages are displayed in different colors based on market conditions: green indicates an uptrend, red for a downtrend, and gray for neutral conditions.
Highs Calculation:
The script calculates the 52-week and 12-month closing highs, which are crucial for identifying potential breakout points.
Level Definition:
Traders can set levels based on either Average True Range (ATR) or percentage changes from these highs, allowing for flexible risk management strategies.
Buy and Sell Conditions:
The script defines specific buy conditions: when the price is within 10% of the highest close and trading above the moving averages, and sell conditions: when the price falls below these thresholds.
Visual Indicators:
Buy and sell signals are visually represented on the chart with arrows, making it easy for traders to see potential trading opportunities at a glance.
Performance Labels:
The script includes performance labels that track the number of bars above or below the moving averages and the percentage change from the moving average, providing users with key metrics to evaluate their trades.
Interactive Table:
A table summarizing the buy and sell rules is displayed on the chart, ensuring that traders have quick access to the system’s trading logic.
Benefits of Using the TFM 10% System:
Streamlined Decision Making:
The script simplifies the trading process by clearly outlining buy and sell signals, making it accessible even for novice traders.
Customizable Parameters:
Users can tailor the script to their preferences by adjusting moving average types and lengths, ATR levels, and percentage thresholds. Bands are interchange able for ATR and Percent below 52 week high for volatility looks. But buy and sell are fixed in 10% threshold.
Risk Management:
By utilizing ATR and percentage levels, traders can effectively manage their risk, making the trading process more systematic.
Comprehensive Market Analysis:
The combination of multiple time frames (daily, weekly, monthly) allows for a well-rounded analysis of market trends, enhancing trading accuracy.
