Blockunity Excess Index (BEI)Identify excess zones resulting in market reversals by visualizing price deviations from an average.
The Excess Index (BEI) is designed to identify excess zones resulting in reversals, based on price deviations from a moving average. This moving average is fully customizable (type, period to be taken into account, etc.). This indicator also multiplies the moving average with a configurable coefficient, to give dynamic support and resistance levels. Finally, the BEI also provides reversal signals to alert you to any risk of trend change, on any asset.
The Idea
The goal is to provide the community with a visual and customizable tool for analyzing large price deviations from an average.
How to Use
Very simple to use, this indicator plots colored zones according to the price's deviation from the moving average. Moving average extensions also provide dynamic support and resistance. Finally, signals alert you to potential reversal points.
Elements
The Moving Average
The Moving Average, which defaults to a gray line over 200 periods, serves as a stable reference point. It is accompanied by an Index, whose color varies from yellow to orange to red, offering an overview of market conditions.
Extensions
These dynamic lines can be used to determine effective supports and resistances.
Signals
Green and red triangles serve as clear indicators for buy and sell signals.
Settings
Mainly, the type of moving average is configurable. The default is an SMA.
A Simple Moving Average (SMA) calculates the average of a selected range of prices by the number of periods in that range.
But you can also, for example, switch the mode to EMA.
The Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is a moving average that places a greater weight and significance on the most recent data points:
You also have WMA.
A Weighted Moving Average (WMA) gives more weight on recent data and less on past data:
And finally, the possibility of having a PCMA.
PCMA takes into account the highest and lowest points in the lookback period and divides this by two to obtain an average:
You can change other parameters such as lookback periods, as well as the coefficient used to define extension lines.
You can refer to the tooltips directly in the indicator parameters.
For those who prefer a minimalist display, you can activate a "Bar Color" in the settings (You must also uncheck "Borders" and "Wick" in your Chart Settings), and deactivate all other elements as you wish:
Finally, you can customize all the different colors, as well as the parameters of the table that indicates the Index value and the asset trend.
How it Works
The Index is calculated using the following method:
abs_distance = math.abs(close - base_ma)
bei = (abs_distance - ta.lowest(abs_distance, lookback_norm)) / (ta.highest(abs_distance, lookback_norm) - ta.lowest(abs_distance, lookback_norm)) * 100
Signals are triggered according to the following conditions:
A Long (buy) signal is triggered when the Index falls below 100, when the closing price is lower than 5 periods ago, and when the price is under the moving average.
A Short (sell) signal is triggered when the Index falls below 100, when the closing price is greater than 5 periods ago, and when the price is above the moving average.
Excess
SPX Excess CAPE YieldHere we are looking at the Excess CAPE yield for the SPX500 over the last 100+ years
"A higher CAPE meant a lower subsequent 10-year return, and vice versa. The R-squared was a phenomenally high 0.9 — the CAPE on its own was enough to explain 90% of stocks’ subsequent performance over a decade. The standard deviation was 1.37% — in other words, two-thirds of the time the prediction was within 1.37 percentage points of the eventual outcome: this over a quarter-century that included an equity bubble, a credit bubble, two epic bear markets, and a decade-long bull market."
assets.bwbx.io
In December of 2020 Dr. Robert Shiller the Yale Nobel Laurate suggested that an improvement on CAPE could be made by taking its inverse (the CAPE earnings yield) and subtracting the us10 year treasury yield.
"His model plainly suggests that stocks will do badly over the next 10 years, and that bonds will do even worse. This was the way Shiller put it in a research piece for Barclays Plc in October, (which can be found on SSRN Below):
In summary, investors expect a certain return in equities as compensation for investing in a riskier asset class, and as interest rates have declined, the relative expected return for equities has increased dramatically. We believe this may quantitatively help to explain investors current preference for equities over bonds, and as such the quick recoveries we are observing (with the exception of the UK), whilst still in the midst of a pandemic. In the US in particular, we are once again observing stretched valuations and high CAPE ratios compared to history."
Sources:
papers.ssrn.com
www.bloomberg.com
The standard trading view disclaimer applies to this post -- please consult your own investment advisor before making investment decisions. This post is for observation only and has no warranty etc. www.tradingview.com
Best,
JM
