Apeiron Fair Value Bands ProWHAT IS IT
The Apeiron Fair Value Bands Pro is an indicator that estimates the fair value area of an asset and provides levels of interest and likely reaction. It was created to determine fair value. Knowing fair value allows traders and investors to determine when an asset is at a premium or at a discount, which allows them to make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell. Fair value is constantly changing, and sometimes waiting for it to develop each session or month can lead to missed opportunities. Therefore, it is useful to have an estimate of fair value at all times.
HOW DOES IT WORK?
The simplest way to have a constant estimation of fair value could probably be a Moving Average. By averaging previous prices, we get the average price which ideally reflects where most traders have been interested in participating in the market. This isn’t necessarily the most accurate fair value estimation you can get, however using different types of moving averages and combining them allows for a better estimation of the FV. It is also important to consider that price is always moving away and back into the MA, so in order to determine FV, we must allow an area for price to move within which we can consider the FVA. By taking into account volatility, previous relevant levels and the MA, the Apeiron Bands determine a FVA, where in theory price should stay most of the time.
According to the normal distribution, the price should stay within 1 standard deviation (SD) around 68% of the time and within 2 SD around 95% of the time during range periods (when data is most symmetrical). In the case of the Apeiron Bands, based on backtest data, the price tends to stay within 1 FVA around 75% of the time, within 2 FVA around 90% of the time during strong trends, around 80% and 95% correspondingly during weak trends, and >85% and >95% during ranges.
Additionally, based on backtesting data, pivots occur on average at around 1 FVA ±0.05 (This does not necessarily mean that most pivots occur at 1 FVA, however, the fact the average is 1±0.05 implies there is relevance to this level).
Finally, in order to account for volatility and the slight differences between symbols, a customizable tolerance ribbon is added to the moving average (MA) and each plotted band.
This data remains the same throughout all timeframes and types of market (tested on cryptocurrencies, forex pairs, stocks, indices and futures)
Examples of the time spent within the FVAs:
Examples of average pivot FVA :
HOW TO USE IT?
Identify potential reversal levels at premium and discount prices:
Knowing that price stays within 1 FVA the majority of time and inside 2 FVA most of the time, as well that in average pivots occur around 1 FVA, it can be inferred that both the Bands representing 1 & 2 FVA (B1 & B2) work as potential reversal levels as shown in the examples. This can be very good in confluence with other strategies to spot trade entries. If this is done taking into account if the asset is at a premium or discount allows for a higher probability of being on the right side of the market.
For example, during an uptrend price sometimes goes below it’s MA only to then continue up. In this particular case, the bands would provide an ideal entry at a discount to ride the uptrend.
During ranges, the bands can be used to identify potential pivots for each move up and down, and because of their adaptive nature they can be a great confluence to which horizontal levels are more likely to act as support and resistance.
For intraday traders, the bands can help them identify assets at one of the extremes and potentially even inside one of the bands, indicating that price is likely to reverse from there. Then they can use LTF to find ideal entries or catch the trend with the bands.
For swing traders and investors, using the bands can be a good way to scan different assets to find extended prices to either side and potential entry levels
Identify emerging trends:
Sometimes price will have a minimum reaction to the bands or no reaction at all. Knowing that price spends most of the time inside the bands, the fact that it breaks out of the FVA indicates that a new trend is likely to begin on that particular TF and price will try to establish a new FVA. Once there is a sustained PA outside the bands, a new trend can be assumed (Deviations happen as well, so it is very important to be aware of higher TF as well).
Other times, price will start sliding between B1 and B2, slowly displacing the MA. This can also be an indication for the start of a trend.
Identify exhaustions (potential tops & bottoms):
I call exhaustions to scenarios when price keeps going up/down but it fails to keep pushing the FVA with it. This indicates weakness in the trend and that a new FVA is being established. This often leads to a potential reversal or correction that marks the top or bottom of a move. Not only that, but when the new FVA is established price tends to go and test the other side of the FVA. Identifying exhaustions and being patient for them to form can potentially provide a great entry and RR ratio.
Exhaustions also happen after strong rallies or crashes, and in these cases it is advised to wait for price to re-enter its FVA, providing more clarity and often even better entries.
Exhaustions appear in all timeframes and symbols, however they can take some time to develop and it is important to be patient with them. And as always, it is highly recommended to also check for confluence on different TF.
8H Bands:
4H Bands:
Additional Features:
- Additional Bands:
The Apeiron Fair Value Bands can plot up to 4 Bands. Each fully customizable. The preset and suggested use is to have B1 & B2 and add thinner aid bands B0.5 & B1.5 which represent the middle of 1 & 2 FVA. These are not the main levels of interest but they can prove useful as support and resistance many times. Besides using mid levels, using fib values (0.618 & 1.618) can work even better on some assets and give better reactions.
NATGAS 1H Bands - Fib Mids:
The extra bands can also be used for FVA 3 and FVA 4, which can be useful during extremely volatile periods or on very LTF
- Multi Timeframe & precision:
The bands work on very low TF as well as High TF. Sometimes data can be limited on HTF and the bands will not have enough to be calculated and many LTF are very volatile and don’t work as well. In these scenarios, the bands have a setting called “Precision” under the preferences section that allows the user to decrease or increase the amount of data taken into account. This allows for optimization on any TF and even on any symbol.
GOLD 1min Bands:
EURUSD 5D Bands:
VIX 1H Bands:
- Multi Bands Confluence:
Combining 2 different length FV bands can be very useful to find confluence levels and spot trends and reversals earlier. For example, on the 15 min TF, using a 50 MA with only 1 FVA at the same time as a 200 MA with all Band can be ideal to keep track of short term moves and their micro-trends while always considering the longer trend which might be different that the short term one. As well, having MTF band confluence can indicate that a level is more likely to signal a reversal if reached.
- Multi Timeframe Confluence:
One of the best ways to use the bands is by using it in confluence with itself in other TFs, when price moves sharply into a confluent level given by multiple TFs’ Bands, it is more likely for price to find support and resistance and/or reverse there. Ex. 5 Min B2, 15 Min B1.5 & 30 Min B1, if price reaches this confluent level and shows weakness, this is likely a short term reversal level.
NATGAS MTF Bands:
How to set it up and customize it: (Explain how they are important)
- The MA Lab:
The Apeiron Bands utilizes a MA Lab to generate the most customizable MAs possible. It allows combining up to 3 different MAs, where each MA can be single, double or triple (same process as creating a DEMA or TEMA). As well each MA can be given more or less weight in the calculation of the final MA. Besides it’s features, the MA Lab allows the user to select only one MA and stick to basic settings and MA types if preferred.
When to use the MA Lab:
If you wanted a reactive MA (EMA) which was also volume weighted, you can then combine it with a VWMA and get a VW-EMA.
If you want a more reactive VWMA you can double or triple it. Then in order to make it smoother you combine it with a SMMA. Finally maybe you want to use it to follow trends closely so you also combine it with a HMA to take momentum into consideration.
- Presets:
The multiplier for each band, the width of each tolerance ribbon and the individual colors of each band can all be individually selected. However, to make the user's experience as smooth as possible, FVA multipliers, Ribbon width and colors can be preset and modified all at the same time with the most basic and ideal settings. This allows for quick customization options as well as personalized detailed custom settings.
- Show only Lower or Upper bands:
This setting is meant for scouting for discounts and premiums across the board. By only showing bands on one side it cleans up the chart and makes it easier to spot important levels on only one side of the price. This can be very useful when looking for swing opportunities or when following a particular trend to only focus on potential entries for it.
MATIC 4H Bands showing only bottom bands:
AMZN 1D Bands showing only bottom bands:
Settings used in indicator preview:
- Custom MA: 200 EMA/200 WMA/200 SMMA (200 EWSMMA)
- Band 1: 0.5 - Ribbon Width: 5 - Color: Blue
- Band 2: 1 - Ribbon Width: 10 - Color: Green
- Band 3: 1.5 - Ribbon Width: 5 - Color: Blue
- Band 4: 2 - Ribbon Width: 10 - Color: Red
Disclaimer:
The bands CAN but are NOT meant to be used as a standalone indicator. Previous performance does not guarantee future performance. The bands are an analytical tool, not a signal indicator. While certain scenarios can be interpreted as a signal, never follow them blindly and always use them in confluence with other analysis, systems or indicators.
Fairvaluebands
Apeiron Fair Value BandsThe Apeiron Fair Value Bands take into account a given MA and determine a Fair Value Area (FVA) for the price of a certain asset. The script plots a MA and a tolerance ribbon for it, as well as 2 bands (preset to 1 Standard deviations and 2 Standard deviations respectively, which can be manually changed) with a tolerance ribbon as well.
This creates 3 areas of interest:
The MA ribbon
The inside of the first upper and lower band (1 standard deviation) where price should stay within around 68% percent of the time according to the normal distribution
The inside of the second upper and lower band (2 standard deviations) where price should stay within around 95% percent of the time according to the normal distribution
Taking this into account, Fair Value analysis can be done:
Premium and Discount Prices: From a very simplistic point of view, when price is below a MA it can be considered to be at a discount and when it is above at a premium. Combining that idea with the levels given by the bands, we can determine if we are buying at premium or at a discount, specially on HTF and when considering investing, thus allowing to enter or exit the market with a higher probability of being on the right side of the trend and at a good level. As seen on the example, buying or selling at the highlighted levels would have been profitable with little drawdown.
VAH & VAL: (1 Standard Deviation Bands) Same as a Market Profile, price will stay in here "most" of the time. And particularly during ranging periods, they will provide potential revesal levels. As well, once prices breaks out of it, depending of the reaction to the second band, we can consider it a deviation or the beggining of a new trend. During strong trends, the bands can also serve as a correction support as the MA would do
New Fair Vaue Range: Once a new trend has begun, it will often slide on or break through Band 2, which can be interpreted as price creating a new Fair Value Range low or high. As seen on the chart, once price breaks out, those levels tend to be respected and relevant during corrections. I must make it very clear that this is just an analytical feature meant to be used in confluence with S/R, Supply & Demand, FVGs, Fibs or others. While it can be accurate sometimes, it might not be other times and be only "close".
Exhaustions: I call exhaustions to the scenarios when price keeps going up/down but it fails to keep pushing the fair value area with it. This indicates weakness in the trend and a potential reversal or correction. These appear on all Timeframes and symbols and are very good indications of tops and bottoms, specially after strong rallies or crashes. In the latter cases, waiting for price to re-enter it's FVA, provides great entries at the Bands levels.
Other features / Suggested Uses:
Middle levels: On the setup menu you can select different Standard deviation settings for each band including: 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5 and 3. While the most relevant settings are 1 & 2, having their middle levels on the chart can provide extra levels for very tight ranges or just in general potential reversal levels.
Multi Timeframe & Multi symbol: The bands work on very low TF as well as High TF, though on HTF it might be limited by the MA length settings and the historical data of the symbol. It is important to note that each symbol and market type will have its own ideal MA and Bands settings.
Multi Bands Confluence: Same as you would use a short and long MA in a single setup, you can do the same with the bands and the confluence of levels can be very accurate.
Multi Timeframe Confluence: One of the best ways to use the bands so far is by using it in confluence with itself in other TFs, when price moves sharply into a confluent level given by multiple TFs, it is more likely for price to reverse there.
Most of the examples show a 200 SMA, but depending on what and how you are trading a shorter or longer MA might be a better fit for you. As well, if you are trading ranges, a VWMA might be much better, and if you are following a trend the EMA could be the better option.
I also want to make it clear that the bands can but are NOT meant to be a standalone indicator. They are meant to be used for confluence with other strategies, systems or indicators.
Fair value bands / quantifytools— Overview
Fair value bands, like other band tools, depict dynamic points in price where price behaviour is normal or abnormal, i.e. trading at/around mean (price at fair value) or deviating from mean (price outside fair value). Unlike constantly readjusting standard deviation based bands, fair value bands are designed to be smooth and constant, based on typical historical deviations. The script calculates pivots that take place above/below fair value basis and forms median deviation bands based on this information. These points are then multiplied up to 3, representing more extreme deviations.
By default, the script uses OHLC4 and SMA 20 as basis for the bands. Users can form their preferred fair value basis using following options:
Price source
- Standard OHLC values
- HL2 (High + low / 2)
- OHLC4 (Open + high + low + close / 4)
- HLC3 (High + low + close / 3)
- HLCC4 (High + low + close + close / 4)
Smoothing
- SMA
- EMA
- HMA
- RMA
- WMA
- VWMA
- Median
Once fair value basis is established, some additional customization options can be employed:
Trend mode
Direction based
Cross based
Trend modes affect fair value basis color that indicates trend direction. Direction based trend considers only the direction of the defined fair value basis, i.e. pointing up is considered an uptrend, vice versa for downtrend. Cross based trends activate when selected source (same options as price source) crosses fair value basis. These sources can be set individually for uptrend/downtrend cross conditions. By default, the script uses cross based trend mode with low and high as sources.
Cross based (downtrend not triggered) vs. direction based (downtrend triggered):
Threshold band
Threshold band is calculated using typical deviations when price is trading at fair value basis. In other words, a little bit of "wiggle room" is added around the mean based on expected deviation. This feature is useful for cross based trends, as it allows filtering insignificant crosses that are more likely just noise. By default, threshold band is calculated based on 1x median deviation from mean. Users can increase/decrease threshold band width via input menu for more/less noise filtering, e.g. 2x threshold band width would require price to cross wiggle room that is 2x wider than typical, 0x erases threshold band altogether.
Deviation bands
Width of deviation bands by default is based on 1x median deviations and can be increased/decreased in a similar manner to threshold bands.
Each combination of customization options produces varying behaviour in the bands. To measure the behaviour and finding fairest representation of fair and unfair value, some data is gathered.
— Fair value metrics
Space between each band is considered a lot, named +3, +2, +1, -1, -2, -3. For each lot, time spent and volume relative to volume moving average (SMA 20) is recorded each time price is trading in a given lot:
Depending on the asset, timeframe and chosen fair value basis, shape of the distributions vary. However, practically always time is distributed in a normal bell curve shape, being highest at lots +1 to -1, gradually decreasing the further price is from the mean. This is hardly surprising, but it allows accurately determining dynamic areas of normal and abnormal price behaviour (i.e. low risk area between +1 and -1, high risk area between +-2 to +-3). Volume on the other hand is typically distributed the other way around, being lowest at lots +1 to -1 and highest at +-2 to +-3. When time and volume are distributed like so, we can conclude that 1) price being outside fair value is a rare event and 2) the more price is outside fair value, the more anomaly behaviour in volume we tend to find.
Viewing metric calculations
Metric calculation highlights can be enabled from the input menu, resulting in a lot based coloring and visibility of each lot counter (time, cumulative relative volume and average relative volume) in data window:
— Alerts
Available alerts are the following:
Individual
- High crossing deviation band (bands +1 to +3 )
- Low crossing deviation band (bands -1 to -3 )
- Low at threshold band in an uptrend
- High at threshold band in a downtrend
- New uptrend
- New downtrend
Grouped
- New uptrend or downtrend
- Deviation band cross (+1 or -1)
- Deviation band cross (+2 or -2)
- Deviation band cross (+3 or -3)
— Practical guide
Example #1 : Risk on/risk off trend following
Ideal trend stays inside fair value and provides sufficient cool offs between the moves. When this is the case, fair value bands can be used for sensible entry/exit levels within the trend.
Example #2 : Mean reversions
When price shows exuberance into an extreme deviation, followed by a stall and signs of exhaustion (wicks), an opportunity for mean reversion emerges. The higher the deviation, the more volatility in the move, the more signalling of exhaustion, the better.
Example #3 : Tweaking bands for desired behaviour
The faster the length of fair value basis, the more momentum price needs to hit extreme deviation levels, as bands too are moving faster alongside price. Decreasing fair value basis length typically leads to more quick and aggressive deviations and less steady trends outside fair value.
