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Historical Volatility

Geometric Brownian Motion BandIf you are an option trader, who are constantly searching opportunities to set up inverse iron condor position or other strategies, you must be familiar in estimating the range induced by Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM), or Lognormal distribution someone may call. The theory behind is adopted in the Black Scholes Option Pricing model, this assumes the asset price follows the GBM, shown below, and estimates the range where the price will fall into on the specific date and probability. dS = a dt + v dW Assuming the drift term is zero, this GBM Band applies the same model and helps you to quickly assess the suitable range to set up your option strategies with simple setting: Length – number of bars covered Vol Multiple - the z-score of the probability Default values of the Length and Vol Multiple are set to 20 bars and 2.0 z-score respectively. You can find an example how the GMB Band work. You can also applies this GMB Band like how Bollinger's Band does for swing trade or breakaway trade. If you find this indicator is useful to you, Star it, Follow, Donate, Like and Share. Your support is a highly motivation for me.
Pine Script™ indicator
by earnSmartAlgorithm
7
Historical Volatility Percentile: Price and VolumeThis is an expansion of the Historical Volatility scripts to include both price and volume volatility. As Tradingview states : Historical Volatility is a measure of how much price (and now volume ) deviates from its average in a specific time period that can be set. The more price (or/and volume ) fluctuates, the higher the indicator value. Please note it does not measure the direction of price (and volume ) changes, just how volatile price/ volume has become. There are several reasons to care about volatility but it's mainly a risk measure. As volatility increases, so does risk and uncertainty and vice versa. Traders can use the indicator to flag instruments with high volatility which could point to a trend change. It is often used in combination with other signals. Example options Example formats Link back to some other great ideas: @Cheatcountry with his prolific sharing , what a great inspiration. @Picte and his inspired idea . @Balipour and his great script Comparing this to other significant HVP indicators
Pine Script™ indicator
by kocurekc
35
Realized Volatility IIR Filters with BandsDISCLAIMER: The Following indicator/code IS NOT intended to be a formal investment advice or recommendation by the author, nor should be construed as such. Users will be fully responsible by their use regarding their own trading vehicles/assets. The following indicator was made for NON LUCRATIVE ACTIVITIES and must remain as is following TradingView's regulations. Use of indicator and their code are published by Invitation Only for work and knowledge sharing. All access granted over it, their use, copy or re-use should mention authorship(s) and origin(s). WARNING NOTICE! THE INCLUDED FUNCTION MUST BE CONSIDERED AS TESTING. The models included in the indicator have been taken from open sources on the web and some of them has been modified by the author, problems could occur at diverse data sceneries. WHAT'S THIS...? Work derived by previous own research for study: This is mainly an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE FILTERING INDICATOR , it's purpose is to catch trend given by the nature of lag given by a VOLATILITY ESTIMATION ALGORITHM as it's coefficient. It provides as well an INFINITE IMPULSE RESPONSE DEVIATION FILTER that uses the same coefficients of the main filter to plot deviation bands as an auxiliary tool. The given Filter based indicator provides my own Multi Volatility-Estimators Function with only 3 models: ELASTIC VOLUME WEIGHTED VOLATILITY : This is a Modified Daigler & Padungsaksawasdi "Volume Weighted Volatility" as on DOI: 10.1504/IJBAAF.2018.089423 but with Elastic Volume Weighted Moving Average instead of VWAP (intraday) for faster (but inaccurate) calculation. A future version is planned on the way using intra-bar inspection for intraday timeframe as described in original paper. GARMAN & KLASS / YANG-ZANG EXTENSION : As one of the best range based (OHLC) with open gaps inclusion in a single bar. PETER MARTIN'S ULCER INDEX : This is a better approach to measure realized volatility than standard deviation of log returns given it's proven convex risk metric for DrawDowns as shown in Chekhlov et al. (2005) . Regarding this particular model, I take a different approach to use it as coefficient feed: Given that the UI only takes in consideration DrawDawns, I code myself the inverse of this to compute Draw-Ups as well and use both of them to filter minimums volatility levels in order to create a SLOW version of the IIR filter, and maximums of both to calculate as FAST variation. This approach can be used as a better proxy instead of any other common moving average given that with NO COMPOUND IN TIME AT ALL (N=1) or only using as long as N=3 bars of compund, the filter can catch a trend easily, making the indicator nearly a NON PARAMETRIC FILTER. NOTES: This version DO NOT INCLUDE ALERTS. This version DO NOT INCLUDE STRATEGY: ALL Feedback welcome. DERIVED WORK: Incremental calculation of weighted mean and variance by Tony Finch (fanf2@cam. ac .uk) (dot@dotat.at), 2009. Volume weighted volatility: empirical evidence for a new realised volatility measure by Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Robert T. Daigler, 2018. Basic DSP Tips & Trics by TradingView user @alexgrover CHEERS! @XeL_Arjona 2020.
Pine Script™ indicator
by xel_arjona
11
Historical Volatility Percentile + SMAHistorical Volatility Percentile tells you the percentage of the days from the past year (252 trading days) that have lower volatility than the current volatility. I included a simple moving average as a signal line to show you how volatile the stock is at the moment. I have included simple colors to let you know when to enter or exit a position. Buy when price higher than EMA & historical volatility higher than SMA Sell when price lower than EMA & historical volatility higher than SMA Please let me know if you would like me to publish any other indicators! I always love to hear from you guys.
Pine Script™ indicator
by cheatcountry
12
Volatility SkewThis indicator measure the historical skew of actual volatility for an individual security. It measure the volatility of up moves versus down moves over the period and gives a ratio. When the indicator is greater than one, it indicators that volatility is greater to the upside, when it is below 1 it indicates that volatility is skewed to the downside. This is not comparable to the SKEW index, since that measures the implied volatility across option strikes, rather than using historical volatility.
Pine Script™ indicator
by jwammo12
5
Moving Average Adaptive FilterThe Moving Avg Adaptive Filter (MAAF) was authored by Perry Kaufman in the Stocks and Commodities Magazine 03/1998 This is a volatility based indicator so when this indicator goes up, sell in the direction of how that stock is going. In other words go short when it is rising and the stock price is below the ema or go long when it is rising and the stock price is above the ema. Lower volatility means it is trading sideways or the current price action is about to reverse. Send me a message and let me know what other indicators you would like to see!
Pine Script™ indicator
by cheatcountry
3
Standard Deviation Measurement ToolIf you like the script please come back and leave me a comment or find me on the interwebs. I get notified you "liked" it... but I have no idea if you actually use it. So, let me know =) The script uses the open price as the mean and calculates the standard deviation from the open price on a per candle basis - Goal: - To establish a mean based on the Open Price and calculate the standard deviation. The reason for this is if the Open is the mean, then the Standard deviation implies a standardized distance a given candle can be expected to travel from the open price - Edge: - If you know that there is a 68%/95%/99.7% probability that price will NOT move more than One Standard Deviation/Two Standard Deviations/Three Standard Deviations from the open price respectively you can set reasonable price targets that relate to those probabilities in a given timeframe. e.g. if you're on a 1h chart and your target is 3.5% from the open price, but 1 standard deviation of the hourly candle is equal to 0.78%. You can make assumptions on either: - The reasonableness of your target or - The holding period likely required for the trade. Also, Standard Deviation is a function of volatility and this tool provides a unique mechanism for measuring volatility as well on a candle by candle basis - Customization Options- - Set 3 independent upper and lower standard deviations. - Each set of standard deviations are on a switch so you can show 1, 2, or 3 sets of standard deviations - You can set the distribution width - Though it's not recommended, you can change the mean source. - There is a switch to show the standard deviation on only the real-time bar or real-time and historical bars. - How I Think About This Script - This strategy is predicated the same principle as Bollinger Bands: the reality that 68% of all data points will fall within one standard deviation of the mean, 96% of all data points will fall within two standard deviations, and 98% of al data points will fall within 3 standard deviations. By understanding the standard deviation, you can possibly infer an edge by understanding the probabilistic range price will be bound to the limits of standard deviation rules according to their probabilistic outcomes for the single candle on any given timeframe. Bollinger Bands are designed to provide this information with the mean being a 20-period moving average and this indicator. This indicator is designed to provide standard deviation information with the mean being based on the distance price travels away from the open of individual candles in the lookback period. If you use a strategy where you enter on major candle closes, this can be useful to set targets for those entries based on the intended hold period or at least add/remove validity to other target metrics. Example: Your target is at the 1.618 Fibonacci level and your confirmation triggers on the 4h candle close (H4 if that's your thing lol). You set up the indicator based on the standard deviation of price movement in 4h candles over the last week. Let's say the indicator shows that the 1.618 Fibonacci level is 3 standard deviations away. This being the case this statistically indicates that within the next 4 hours, you have a very low probability of achieving your target (>2%). This doesn't invalidate your target, but it does indicate a low probability of achieving it in the next 4hrs. With this information, you can infer that you are either going to be (a) really lucky (b) in this trade for a lot longer than 4hrs or (c) your target is unrealistic given your intended hold period. You can develop a more probabilistically favorable hold period calculation by looking at the standard deviation on a higher time frame (e.g. 1d-1w). Bonus feature: You'll find that the 2 and 3 standard deviations will often "cluster" and these clusters often provide future S/R levels. That's a pretty sweet feature no one things to look for. But, try it. Find a cluster of 2nd and 3rd stdevs that are in somewhat of a horizontal pattern (usually the result of a range) and you'll find that to be a good s/r area. Even better if you use the 3.2 standard deviation, you'll find that is a fantastic breakout signal! Summary So, you can use it for target setting, a confluence test, a reasonableness test, or just a measurement tool. This was the first TV script I ever wrong.. Got taken down. But, I've re-released it because there are other TV scripts that attempt to do this but are completely wrong. Please be careful about using other people's scripts. Always validate the math of the script before you use it if possible. Stay safe out there and I hope all your dreams come true.
Pine Script™ indicator
by kurtsmock
44
Smart Indicator 28 - Swing Pivots (Higher Highs and Lower Lows)A simple way to find Higher Highs and Lower Lows (HH and LL) whit automatic Fibonacci Lines in the most common levels. In this indicator the Higher Highs only happens when a high value are rising from each other in the last "Length of Real Pivots" highs and the next same number of highs are falling in every single bar. The Lower Lows are inverted, LL only appears if a low is falling in every single bar in the last number of length and the lows price of the "n" bars next are rising. You can use this Indicator in any kind of market.
Pine Script™ indicator
by RodrigoKazuma
18
Normailzed CandleThis indicator normalizes Day's candle with Open. Idea is to see the daily movement in the context of the Open of the Day. Larry Williams talks about Open being the most important price of the day. Hence, this indicator. The Green line is average Open-to-High for occurrences of Red days. The Red line is average Open-to-Low for occurrences of Green days. Average are not perfect calculations since occurrences(of Red or Green) will vary within the time-span used for averages. These can used to gauge likelihood of the intra-day price reversal. If the price exceeds green/red line, there is higher likelihood of the price closing above/below open. The blue lines are average Open-to-close for Green and Red occurrences. Be careful on days where consecutive 3rd Highest High or Lowest Low day is made and also on the next day after such day. Prices may turn direction at least for a short while. The precursor to this script of the Candle Infopanel script. That script was just numbers in panel and this is a graphical representation. I Some of the calculations from original script are commented here because it would make visuals clutters (and probably the left-out calculation are not critical to making trade decisions!)
Pine Script™ indicator
by Masa_1234
4
Candle Information Panel//This indicator shows Day's candle measurements with past averages. First column shows the candle details for the present day. //"Open - Low", "High - Open", "Range(=High-low)", "Body(open-close)" //Averages are calculated for occurences of Green and Red days. Up Averages are for Green days and Down Averages are for Red days. //Average are not perfect calculations since occurences(of Red or Green) will vary within the timespan used for averages. //This can used to guage general sense of probability of the price movement. //e.g. if the Open to Low for a day exceeds UpAv value, then there is higher likelihood of day being Red. //similarly, trade can be held in expectation of price reaching the DnAv and stop loss can be trailed accordingly. //Not a perfect system. But something to work on further to increase price action understanding. //Be careful on days where consecutive 3rd Highest High or Lowest Low day is made and also on the next day after such day. Prices may turn direction at least for a short while. Complete Credit goes to @pinecoders who gave me the main script on tradingview chat room.
Pine Script™ indicator
by Masa_1234
VIX reversion-Buschi English: A significant intraday reversion (commonly used: 3 points) on a high (over 20 points) S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) can be a sign of a market bottom, because there is the assumption that some of the "big guys" liquidated their options / insurances because the worst is over. This indicator shows these reversions (3 points as default) when the VIX was over 20 points. The character "R" is then shown directly over the daily column, the VIX need not to be loaded explicitly. Deutsch: Eine deutliche Intraday-Umkehr (3 Punkte im Normalfall) bei einem hohen (über 20 Punkte) S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) kann ein Zeichen für eine Bodenbildung im Markt sein, weil möglicherweise einige "große Jungs" ihre Optionen / Versicherungen auflösen, weil das schlimmste vorbei ist. Dieser Indikator zeigt diese Umkehr (Standardwert: 3 Punkte), wenn der VIX vorher über 20 Punkte lag. Der Buchstabe "R" wird dabei direkt über dem Tagesbalken angezeigt, wobei der VIX nicht explizit geladen werden muss.
Pine Script™ indicator
by MagicEins
2
Realized VolatilityRealized / Historical Volatility Calculates historical, i.e. realized volatility of any underlying. If frequency is not the daily, but for example 6h, 30min, weeks or months, it scales the initial setting to be suitable for the different time frame. Examples with default settings (30 day volatility, 365 days per year): A) Frequency = Daily: Returns 30 day historical volatility, under the assumption that there are 365 trading days in a year. B) Frequency = 6h: Still returns 30 day historical volatility, under the assumption that there are 365 trading days in a year. However, since 6h granularity fits 4 times in 24 hours, it rescales the look back period to rather 30*4 = 120 units to still reflect 30 day historical volatility.
Pine Script™ indicator
by JSterz