Taylor RuleThe Taylor rule is a simple formula that John Taylor devised to guide policymakers. It calculates what the federal funds rate should be, as a function of the output gap and current inflation. Here, we measure the output gap as the difference between potential output and real GDP. Inflation is measured by changes in the CPI, and we use a target inflation rate of 2%. We also assume a steady-state real interest rate of 2%.
Inflation
Inflation NationThis is a measure between current inflation and inflation if the velocity of money increased to 1.4 (pre-pandemic levels).
Inflation-Adjusted CandlesDeflates time series of historical open, close, high, low prices. This adjusts price data for inflation and removes the effect of price inflation.
inflation-adjusted price for period 't' = (price / cpi ) * 100
Historical CPI is pulled from Quandl.
gold price levels denominated in usd/gramsPlots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the indicator settings. Default values are:
75 gold grams
300 gold grams
500 gold grams
1000 gold grams
5000 gold grams
More context: The purchasing power of Bitcoin
Total Inflation ModelMeasure of the total economy wide inflation of the US Dollar.
Total Inflation = growth rate of money supply / economic output
True Inflation Compensator (USD)This script will draw your underlying ticker compensating for a truer USD inflation rate based on an average between the M2 money supply increase and the government's reported CPI. It only considers the last year of inflation by default, but you can set any amount of years in the options.
This is especially relevant given the current massive printing that is going on within the US economic system. If you look at the S&P500 the market has by no means completely recovered, but due to massive printing most do not realize this by just looking at the base chart. A similar concept applies to Bitcoin. Unfortunately due to today's economic climate one must compensate for printing to get a true analysis of how investments are doing.
Real Interest Rate DifferentialThe Real IRD is a simple indicator built for forex trades that need a long-term view and want to compare currencies in search of high yield. The indicated interest rate maturity is 2 years, since shorter maturities may not price central banks' monetary policy decisions.
Example:
- You need to do an analysis of the AUDUSD
- In the Interest Rate 1 field, we put the interest rate for the base currency, in this case the AUD
- In the Interest Rate 2 field, the interest rate of the other currency, in this case the USD
- In the CPI 1 field, inflation referring to base currency
- In the CPI 2 field, inflation for another currency
CPI Codes:
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_USA < USD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_EUR < EUR
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_JPN < JPY
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CHE < CHF
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_GBR < GBP
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_CAN < CAD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_RUS < RUB
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_AUS < AUD
QUANDL:RATEINF/INFLATION_NZL < NZD
Many Inflation RateThis is a assortment of countries' inflation rates, sourced by Quandl. The countries are represented by their ISO 3166-1 alpha-3 codes in the options, and at the moment include:
ARG, AUS, CAN, CHE, DEU, EUR, FRA, GBR, ITA, JPN, NZL, RUS, USA
Included is a correlation to the current chart and the selected inflation rate. The correlation compares the monthly moving averages of YOY inflation and the chart closes over a period of two years. At the moment this doesn't seem to be the most efficient method of correlation/comparison, should there be one to begin with.
More information:
www.ons.gov.uk
www.bls.gov
voxeu.org
en.wikipedia.org
See here for a different version:
US Inflation Rate [nb]This is the United States inflation rate, based on the total Consumer Price Index published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Option to toggle:
A line to display the inflation rate in December. It does not change until the next December.
What the color change to red is indicative of:
According to the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding inflation rate, "2% is a bae number to be around". This does not imply a strict 2% inflation for success and allows room for federal rate cuts should they be needed.
Although FOMC declared 2% to be "bae" in 2012, James Bullard, of federal banking fame, claims that started to become the norm in 1995. Therefore the inflation rate line will only turn red 1995 onwards, and serves as a friendly reminder that inflation has been over at or over 2% for more than one month.
Sources:
www.bls.gov
www.federalreserve.gov
www.stlouisfed.org
Portfolio and Risk Management: Gold Based Net Growth CoefficientHello, if our topic is stocks, whatever signal we get, we have to divide and reduce the risk.
Apart from the risk, we need inflation-free figures to detect a clear growth.
Gold is one of the most successful tools to beat inflation in this regard in the historical context.
When the economy is good, we have to beat both commodities and inflation.
For this purpose, I found it appropriate to develop a net growth factor free from gold growth.
Investors need several stocks with a high growth rate and as much risk-free as possible.
Personally, I think that the science of portfolio and risk management will last a lifetime and should continue.
I think this subject is a research and development subject.(R & D)
My research and publications on this matter will continue publicly.
I wish everyone a good day.
NOTE : You can determine the return in the time period you want to look back by adjusting the period in the rate you want from the menu.
The standard value is 200 days. (1 year)
Inflation Rate HistogramThis script is designed to show a histogram of the inflation rate, based on FRED's CPI data. It shows the yearly change in cpiaucsl. As of right now, this script only works correctly on the yearly timeframe (12M). I'm currently looking into a solution to make this script work on all time frames. This script can be useful for comparing growth to inflation, or just if you want to see how inflation was for a certain year. This script really puts the stagflation into perspective.
CPI-weighted USD/RUB exchange rate calculationProjected target for USDRUB calculated by inflation rates (consumer price indexes) is 110.
