AI SuperTrend x Pivot Percentile - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The AI SuperTrend x Pivot Percentile strategy is a sophisticated trading approach that integrates AI-driven analysis with traditional technical indicators. Combining the AI SuperTrend with the Pivot Percentile strategy highlights several key advantages:
1. Enhanced Accuracy in Trend Prediction: The AI SuperTrend utilizes K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm for trend prediction, improving accuracy by considering historical data patterns. This is complemented by the Pivot Percentile analysis which provides additional context on trend strength.
2. Comprehensive Market Analysis: The integration offers a multi-faceted approach to market analysis, combining AI insights with traditional technical indicators. This dual approach captures a broader range of market dynamics.
BTC 6H L/S Performance
Local
█ Strategy: How it Works - Detailed Explanation
🔶 AI-Enhanced SuperTrend Indicators
1. SuperTrend Calculation:
- The SuperTrend indicator is calculated using a moving average and the Average True Range (ATR). The basic formula is:
- Upper Band = Moving Average + (Multiplier × ATR)
- Lower Band = Moving Average - (Multiplier × ATR)
- The moving average type (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, VWMA) and the length of the moving average and ATR are adjustable parameters.
- The direction of the trend is determined based on the position of the closing price in relation to these bands.
2. AI Integration with K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN):
- The KNN algorithm is applied to predict trend direction. It uses historical price data and SuperTrend values to classify the current trend as bullish or bearish.
- The algorithm calculates the 'distance' between the current data point and historical points. The 'k' nearest data points (neighbors) are identified based on this distance.
- A weighted average of these neighbors' trends (bullish or bearish) is calculated to predict the current trend.
For more please check: Multi-TF AI SuperTrend with ADX - Strategy
🔶 Pivot Percentile Analysis
1. Percentile Calculation:
- This involves calculating the percentile ranks for high and low prices over a set of predefined lengths.
- The percentile function is typically defined as:
- Percentile = Value at (P/100) × (N + 1)th position
- Where P is the desired percentile, and N is the number of data points.
2. Trend Strength Evaluation:
- The calculated percentiles for highs and lows are used to determine the strength of bullish and bearish trends.
- For instance, a high percentile rank in the high prices may indicate a strong bullish trend, and vice versa for bearish trends.
For more please check: Pivot Percentile Trend - Strategy
🔶 Strategy Integration
1. Combining SuperTrend and Pivot Percentile:
- The strategy synthesizes the insights from both AI-enhanced SuperTrend and Pivot Percentile analysis.
- It compares the trend direction indicated by the SuperTrend with the strength of the trend as suggested by the Pivot Percentile analysis.
2. Signal Generation:
- A trading signal is generated when both the AI-enhanced SuperTrend and the Pivot Percentile analysis agree on the trend direction.
- For instance, a bullish signal is generated when both the SuperTrend is bullish, and the Pivot Percentile analysis shows strength in bullish trends.
🔶 Risk Management and Filters
- ADX and DMI Filter: The strategy uses the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) as filters to assess the trend's strength and direction.
- Dynamic Trailing Stop Loss: Based on the SuperTrend indicator, the strategy dynamically adjusts stop-loss levels to manage risk effectively.
This strategy stands out for its ability to combine real-time AI analysis with established technical indicators, offering traders a nuanced and responsive tool for navigating complex market conditions. The equations and algorithms involved are pivotal in accurately identifying market trends and potential trade opportunities.
█ Usage
To effectively use this strategy, traders should:
1. Understand the AI and Pivot Percentile Indicators: A clear grasp of how these indicators work will enable traders to make informed decisions.
2. Interpret the Signals Accurately: The strategy provides bullish, bearish, and neutral signals. Traders should align these signals with their market analysis and trading goals.
3. Monitor Market Conditions: Given that this strategy is sensitive to market dynamics, continuous monitoring is crucial for timely decision-making.
4. Adjust Settings as Needed: Traders should feel free to tweak the input parameters to suit their trading preferences and to respond to changing market conditions.
█Default Settings and Their Impact on Performance
1. Trading Direction (Default: "Both")
Effect: Determines whether the strategy will take long positions, short positions, or both. Adjusting this setting can align the strategy with the trader's market outlook or risk preference.
2. AI Settings (Neighbors: 3, Data Points: 24)
Neighbors: The number of nearest neighbors in the KNN algorithm. A higher number might smooth out noise but could miss subtle, recent changes. A lower number makes the model more sensitive to recent data but may increase noise.
Data Points: Defines the amount of historical data considered. More data points provide a broader context but may dilute recent trends' impact.
3. SuperTrend Settings (Length: 10, Factor: 3.0, MA Source: "WMA")
Length: Affects the sensitivity of the SuperTrend indicator. A longer length results in a smoother, less sensitive indicator, ideal for long-term trends.
Factor: Determines the bandwidth of the SuperTrend. A higher factor creates wider bands, capturing larger price movements but potentially missing short-term signals.
MA Source: The type of moving average used (e.g., WMA - Weighted Moving Average). Different MA types can affect the trend indicator's responsiveness and smoothness.
4. AI Trend Prediction Settings (Price Trend: 10, Prediction Trend: 80)
Price Trend and Prediction Trend Lengths: These settings define the lengths of weighted moving averages for price and SuperTrend, impacting the responsiveness and smoothness of the AI's trend predictions.
5. Pivot Percentile Settings (Length: 10)
Length: Influences the calculation of pivot percentiles. A shorter length makes the percentile more responsive to recent price changes, while a longer length offers a broader view of price trends.
6. ADX and DMI Settings (ADX Length: 14, Time Frame: 'D')
ADX Length: Defines the period for the Average Directional Index calculation. A longer period results in a smoother ADX line.
Time Frame: Sets the time frame for the ADX and DMI calculations, affecting the sensitivity to market changes.
7. Commission, Slippage, and Initial Capital
These settings relate to transaction costs and initial investment, directly impacting net profitability and strategy feasibility.
Knn
Multi-TF AI SuperTrend with ADX - Strategy [PresentTrading]
## █ Introduction and How it is Different
The trading strategy in question is an enhanced version of the SuperTrend indicator, combined with AI elements and an ADX filter. It's a multi-timeframe strategy that incorporates two SuperTrends from different timeframes and utilizes a k-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm for trend prediction. It's different from traditional SuperTrend indicators because of its AI-based predictive capabilities and the addition of the ADX filter for trend strength.
BTC 8hr Performance
ETH 8hr Performance
## █ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation (Revised)
### Multi-Timeframe Approach
The strategy leverages the power of multiple timeframes by incorporating two SuperTrend indicators, each calculated on a different timeframe. This multi-timeframe approach provides a holistic view of the market's trend. For example, a 8-hour timeframe might capture the medium-term trend, while a daily timeframe could capture the longer-term trend. When both SuperTrends align, the strategy confirms a more robust trend.
### K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN)
The KNN algorithm is used to classify the direction of the trend based on historical SuperTrend values. It uses weighted voting of the 'k' nearest data points. For each point, it looks at its 'k' closest neighbors and takes a weighted average of their labels to predict the current label. The KNN algorithm is applied separately to each timeframe's SuperTrend data.
### SuperTrend Indicators
Two SuperTrend indicators are used, each from a different timeframe. They are calculated using different moving averages and ATR lengths as per user settings. The SuperTrend values are then smoothed to make them suitable for KNN-based prediction.
### ADX and DMI Filters
The ADX filter is used to eliminate weak trends. Only when the ADX is above 20 and the directional movement index (DMI) confirms the trend direction, does the strategy signal a buy or sell.
### Combining Elements
A trade signal is generated only when both SuperTrends and the ADX filter confirm the trend direction. This multi-timeframe, multi-indicator approach reduces false positives and increases the robustness of the strategy.
By considering multiple timeframes and using machine learning for trend classification, the strategy aims to provide more accurate and reliable trade signals.
BTC 8hr Performance (Zoom-in)
## █ Trade Direction
The strategy allows users to specify the trade direction as 'Long', 'Short', or 'Both'. This is useful for traders who have a specific market bias. For instance, in a bullish market, one might choose to only take 'Long' trades.
## █ Usage
Parameters: Adjust the number of neighbors, data points, and moving averages according to the asset and market conditions.
Trade Direction: Choose your preferred trading direction based on your market outlook.
ADX Filter: Optionally, enable the ADX filter to avoid trading in a sideways market.
Risk Management: Use the trailing stop-loss feature to manage risks.
## █ Default Settings
Neighbors (K): 3
Data points for KNN: 12
SuperTrend Length: 10 and 5 for the two different SuperTrends
ATR Multiplier: 3.0 for both
ADX Length: 21
ADX Time Frame: 240
Default trading direction: Both
By customizing these settings, traders can tailor the strategy to fit various trading styles and assets.
Machine Learning: VWAP [YinYangAlgorithms]Machine Learning: VWAP aims to use Machine Learning to Identify the best location to Anchor the VWAP at. Rather than using a traditional fixed length or simply adjusting based on a Date / Time; by applying Machine Learning we may hope to identify crucial areas which make sense to reset the VWAP and start anew. VWAP’s may act similar to a Bollinger Band in the sense that they help to identify both Overbought and Oversold Price locations based on previous movements and help to identify how far the price may move within the current Trend. However, unlike Bollinger Bands, VWAPs have the ability to parabolically get quite spaced out and also reset. For this reason, the price may never actually go from the Lower to the Upper and vice versa (when very spaced out; when the Upper and Lower zones are narrow, it may bounce between the two). The reason for this is due to how the anchor location is calculated and in this specific Indicator, how it changes anchors based on price movement calculated within Machine Learning.
This Indicator changes the anchor if the Low < Lowest Low of a length of X and likewise if the High > Highest High of a length of X. This logic is applied within a Machine Learning standpoint that likewise amplifies this Lookback Length by adding a Machine Learning Length to it and increasing the lookback length even further.
Due to how the anchor for this VWAP changes, you may notice that the Basis Line (Orange) may act as a Trend Identifier. When the Price is above the basis line, it may represent a bullish trend; and likewise it may represent a bearish trend when below it. You may also notice what may happen is when the trend occurs, it may push all the way to the Upper or Lower levels of this VWAP. It may then proceed to move horizontally until the VWAP expands more and it may gain more movement; or it may correct back to the Basis Line. If it corrects back to the basis line, what may happen is it either uses the Basis Line as a Support and continues in its current direction, or it will change the VWAP anchor and start anew.
Tutorial:
If we zoom in on the most recent VWAP we can see how it expands. Expansion may be caused by time but generally it may be caused by price movement and volume. Exponential Price movement causes the VWAP to expand, even if there are corrections to it. However, please note Volume adds a large weighted factor to the calculation; hence Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).
If you refer to the white circle in the example above; you’ll be able to see that the VWAP expanded even while the price was correcting to the Basis line. This happens due to exponential movement which holds high volume. If you look at the volume below the white circle, you’ll notice it was very large; however even though there was exponential price movement after the white circle, since the volume was low, the VWAP didn’t expand much more than it already had.
There may be times where both Volume and Price movement isn’t significant enough to cause much of an expansion. During this time it may be considered to be in a state of consolidation. While looking at this example, you may also notice the color switch from red to green to red. The color of the VWAP is related to the movement of the Basis line (Orange middle line). When the current basis is > the basis of the previous bar the color of the VWAP is green, and when the current basis is < the basis of the previous bar, the color of the VWAP is red. The color may help you gauge the current directional movement the price is facing within the VWAP.
You may have noticed there are signals within this Indicator. These signals are composed of Green and Red Triangles which represent potential Bullish and Bearish momentum changes. The Momentum changes happen when the Signal Type:
The High/Low or Close (You pick in settings)
Crosses one of the locations within the VWAP.
Bullish Momentum change signals occur when :
Signal Type crosses OVER the Basis
Signal Type crosses OVER the lower level
Bearish Momentum change signals occur when:
Signal Type crosses UNDER the Basis
Signal Type Crosses UNDER the upper level
These signals may represent locations where momentum may occur in the direction of these signals. For these reasons there are also alerts available to be set up for them.
If you refer to the two circles within the example above, you may see that when the close goes above the basis line, how it mat represents bullish momentum. Likewise if it corrects back to the basis and the basis acts as a support, it may continue its bullish momentum back to the upper levels again. However, if you refer to the red circle, you’ll see if the basis fails to act as a support, it may then start to correct all the way to the lower levels, or depending on how expanded the VWAP is, it may just reset its anchor due to such drastic movement.
You also have the ability to disable Machine Learning by setting ‘Machine Learning Type’ to ‘None’. If this is done, it will go off whether you have it set to:
Bullish
Bearish
Neutral
For the type of VWAP you want to see. In this example above we have it set to ‘Bullish’. Non Machine Learning VWAP are still calculated using the same logic of if low < lowest low over length of X and if high > highest high over length of X.
Non Machine Learning VWAP’s change much quicker but may also allow the price to correct from one side to the other without changing VWAP Anchor. They may be useful for breaking up a trend into smaller pieces after momentum may have changed.
Above is an example of how the Non Machine Learning VWAP looks like when in Bearish. As you can see based on if it is Bullish or Bearish is how it favors the trend to be and may likewise dictate when it changes the Anchor.
When set to neutral however, the Anchor may change quite quickly. This results in a still useful VWAP to help dictate possible zones that the price may move within, but they’re also much tighter zones that may not expand the same way.
We will conclude this Tutorial here, hopefully this gives you some insight as to why and how Machine Learning VWAPs may be useful; as well as how to use them.
Settings:
VWAP:
VWAP Type: Type of VWAP. You can favor specific direction changes or let it be Neutral where there is even weight to both. Please note, these do not apply to the Machine Learning VWAP.
Source: VWAP Source. By default VWAP usually uses HLC3; however OHLC4 may help by providing more data.
Lookback Length: The Length of this VWAP when it comes to seeing if the current High > Highest of this length; or if the current Low is < Lowest of this length.
Standard VWAP Multiplier: This multiplier is applied only to the Standard VWMA. This is when 'Machine Learning Type' is set to 'None'.
Machine Learning:
Use Rational Quadratics: Rationalizing our source may be beneficial for usage within ML calculations.
Signal Type: Bullish and Bearish Signals are when the price crosses over/under the basis, as well as the Upper and Lower levels. These may act as indicators to where price movement may occur.
Machine Learning Type: Are we using a Simple ML Average, KNN Mean Average, KNN Exponential Average or None?
KNN Distance Type: We need to check if distance is within the KNN Min/Max distance, which distance checks are we using.
Machine Learning Length: How far back is our Machine Learning going to keep data for.
k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) Length: How many k-Nearest Neighbours will we account for?
Fast ML Data Length: What is our Fast ML Length? This is used with our Slow Length to create our KNN Distance.
Slow ML Data Length: What is our Slow ML Length? This is used with our Fast Length to create our KNN Distance.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Machine Learning: Optimal RSI [YinYangAlgorithms]This Indicator, will rate multiple different lengths of RSIs to determine which RSI to RSI MA cross produced the highest profit within the lookback span. This ‘Optimal RSI’ is then passed back, and if toggled will then be thrown into a Machine Learning calculation. You have the option to Filter RSI and RSI MA’s within the Machine Learning calculation. What this does is, only other Optimal RSI’s which are in the same bullish or bearish direction (is the RSI above or below the RSI MA) will be added to the calculation.
You can either (by default) use a Simple Average; which is essentially just a Mean of all the Optimal RSI’s with a length of Machine Learning. Or, you can opt to use a k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) calculation which takes a Fast and Slow Speed. We essentially turn the Optimal RSI into a MA with different lengths and then compare the distance between the two within our KNN Function.
RSI may very well be one of the most used Indicators for identifying crucial Overbought and Oversold locations. Not only that but when it crosses its Moving Average (MA) line it may also indicate good locations to Buy and Sell. Many traders simply use the RSI with the standard length (14), however, does that mean this is the best length?
By using the length of the top performing RSI and then applying some Machine Learning logic to it, we hope to create what may be a more accurate, smooth, optimal, RSI.
Tutorial:
This is a pretty zoomed out Perspective of what the Indicator looks like with its default settings (except with Bollinger Bands and Signals disabled). If you look at the Tables above, you’ll notice, currently the Top Performing RSI Length is 13 with an Optimal Profit % of: 1.00054973. On its default settings, what it does is Scan X amount of RSI Lengths and checks for when the RSI and RSI MA cross each other. It then records the profitability of each cross to identify which length produced the overall highest crossing profitability. Whichever length produces the highest profit is then the RSI length that is used in the plots, until another length takes its place. This may result in what we deem to be the ‘Optimal RSI’ as it is an adaptive RSI which changes based on performance.
In our next example, we changed the ‘Optimal RSI Type’ from ‘All Crossings’ to ‘Extremity Crossings’. If you compare the last two examples to each other, you’ll notice some similarities, but overall they’re quite different. The reason why is, the Optimal RSI is calculated differently. When using ‘All Crossings’ everytime the RSI and RSI MA cross, we evaluate it for profit (short and long). However, with ‘Extremity Crossings’, we only evaluate it when the RSI crosses over the RSI MA and RSI <= 40 or RSI crosses under the RSI MA and RSI >= 60. We conclude the crossing when it crosses back on its opposite of the extremity, and that is how it finds its Optimal RSI.
The way we determine the Optimal RSI is crucial to calculating which length is currently optimal.
In this next example we have zoomed in a bit, and have the full default settings on. Now we have signals (which you can set alerts for), for when the RSI and RSI MA cross (green is bullish and red is bearish). We also have our Optimal RSI Bollinger Bands enabled here too. These bands allow you to see where there may be Support and Resistance within the RSI at levels that aren’t static; such as 30 and 70. The length the RSI Bollinger Bands use is the Optimal RSI Length, allowing it to likewise change in correlation to the Optimal RSI.
In the example above, we’ve zoomed out as far as the Optimal RSI Bollinger Bands go. You’ll notice, the Bollinger Bands may act as Support and Resistance locations within and outside of the RSI Mid zone (30-70). In the next example we will highlight these areas so they may be easier to see.
Circled above, you may see how many times the Optimal RSI faced Support and Resistance locations on the Bollinger Bands. These Bollinger Bands may give a second location for Support and Resistance. The key Support and Resistance may still be the 30/50/70, however the Bollinger Bands allows us to have a more adaptive, moving form of Support and Resistance. This helps to show where it may ‘bounce’ if it surpasses any of the static levels (30/50/70).
Due to the fact that this Indicator may take a long time to execute and it can throw errors for such, we have added a Setting called: Adjust Optimal RSI Lookback and RSI Count. This settings will automatically modify the Optimal RSI Lookback Length and the RSI Count based on the Time Frame you are on and the Bar Indexes that are within. For instance, if we switch to the 1 Hour Time Frame, it will adjust the length from 200->90 and RSI Count from 30->20. If this wasn’t adjusted, the Indicator would Timeout.
You may however, change the Setting ‘Adjust Optimal RSI Lookback and RSI Count’ to ‘Manual’ from ‘Auto’. This will give you control over the ‘Optimal RSI Lookback Length’ and ‘RSI Count’ within the Settings. Please note, it will likely take some “fine tuning” to find working settings without the Indicator timing out, but there are definitely times you can find better settings than our ‘Auto’ will create; especially on higher Time Frames. The Minimum our ‘Auto’ will create is:
Optimal RSI Lookback Length: 90
RSI Count: 20
The Maximum it will create is:
Optimal RSI Lookback Length: 200
RSI Count: 30
If there isn’t much bar index history, for instance, if you’re on the 1 Day and the pair is BTC/USDT you’ll get < 4000 Bar Indexes worth of data. For this reason it is possible to manually increase the settings to say:
Optimal RSI Lookback Length: 500
RSI Count: 50
But, please note, if you make it too high, it may also lead to inaccuracies.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully this has given you some insight as to how calculating our Optimal RSI and then using it within Machine Learning may create a more adaptive RSI.
Settings:
Optimal RSI:
Show Crossing Signals: Display signals where the RSI and RSI Cross.
Show Tables: Display Information Tables to show information like, Optimal RSI Length, Best Profit, New Optimal RSI Lookback Length and New RSI Count.
Show Bollinger Bands: Show RSI Bollinger Bands. These bands work like the TDI Indicator, except its length changes as it uses the current RSI Optimal Length.
Optimal RSI Type: This is how we calculate our Optimal RSI. Do we use all RSI and RSI MA Crossings or just when it crosses within the Extremities.
Adjust Optimal RSI Lookback and RSI Count: Auto means the script will automatically adjust the Optimal RSI Lookback Length and RSI Count based on the current Time Frame and Bar Index's on chart. This will attempt to stop the script from 'Taking too long to Execute'. Manual means you have full control of the Optimal RSI Lookback Length and RSI Count.
Optimal RSI Lookback Length: How far back are we looking to see which RSI length is optimal? Please note the more bars the lower this needs to be. For instance with BTC/USDT you can use 500 here on 1D but only 200 for 15 Minutes; otherwise it will timeout.
RSI Count: How many lengths are we checking? For instance, if our 'RSI Minimum Length' is 4 and this is 30, the valid RSI lengths we check is 4-34.
RSI Minimum Length: What is the RSI length we start our scans at? We are capped with RSI Count otherwise it will cause the Indicator to timeout, so we don't want to waste any processing power on irrelevant lengths.
RSI MA Length: What length are we using to calculate the optimal RSI cross' and likewise plot our RSI MA with?
Extremity Crossings RSI Backup Length: When there is no Optimal RSI (if using Extremity Crossings), which RSI should we use instead?
Machine Learning:
Use Rational Quadratics: Rationalizing our Close may be beneficial for usage within ML calculations.
Filter RSI and RSI MA: Should we filter the RSI's before usage in ML calculations? Essentially should we only use RSI data that are of the same type as our Optimal RSI? For instance if our Optimal RSI is Bullish (RSI > RSI MA), should we only use ML RSI's that are likewise bullish?
Machine Learning Type: Are we using a Simple ML Average, KNN Mean Average, KNN Exponential Average or None?
KNN Distance Type: We need to check if distance is within the KNN Min/Max distance, which distance checks are we using.
Machine Learning Length: How far back is our Machine Learning going to keep data for.
k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) Length: How many k-Nearest Neighbours will we account for?
Fast ML Data Length: What is our Fast ML Length? This is used with our Slow Length to create our KNN Distance.
Slow ML Data Length: What is our Slow ML Length? This is used with our Fast Length to create our KNN Distance.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Machine Learning: SuperTrend Strategy TP/SL [YinYangAlgorithms]The SuperTrend is a very useful Indicator to display when trends have shifted based on the Average True Range (ATR). Its underlying ideology is to calculate the ATR using a fixed length and then multiply it by a factor to calculate the SuperTrend +/-. When the close crosses the SuperTrend it changes direction.
This Strategy features the Traditional SuperTrend Calculations with Machine Learning (ML) and Take Profit / Stop Loss applied to it. Using ML on the SuperTrend allows for the ability to sort data from previous SuperTrend calculations. We can filter the data so only previous SuperTrends that follow the same direction and are within the distance bounds of our k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) will be added and then averaged. This average can either be achieved using a Mean or with an Exponential calculation which puts added weight on the initial source. Take Profits and Stop Losses are then added to the ML SuperTrend so it may capitalize on Momentum changes meanwhile remaining in the Trend during consolidation.
By applying Machine Learning logic and adding a Take Profit and Stop Loss to the Traditional SuperTrend, we may enhance its underlying calculations with potential to withhold the trend better. The main purpose of this Strategy is to minimize losses and false trend changes while maximizing gains. This may be achieved by quick reversals of trends where strategic small losses are taken before a large trend occurs with hopes of potentially occurring large gain. Due to this logic, the Win/Loss ratio of this Strategy may be quite poor as it may take many small marginal losses where there is consolidation. However, it may also take large gains and capitalize on strong momentum movements.
Tutorial:
In this example above, we can get an idea of what the default settings may achieve when there is momentum. It focuses on attempting to hit the Trailing Take Profit which moves in accord with the SuperTrend just with a multiplier added. When momentum occurs it helps push the SuperTrend within it, which on its own may act as a smaller Trailing Take Profit of its own accord.
We’ve highlighted some key points from the last example to better emphasize how it works. As you can see, the White Circle is where profit was taken from the ML SuperTrend simply from it attempting to switch to a Bullish (Buy) Trend. However, that was rejected almost immediately and we went back to our Bearish (Sell) Trend that ended up resulting in our Take Profit being hit (Yellow Circle). This Strategy aims to not only capitalize on the small profits from SuperTrend to SuperTrend but to also capitalize when the Momentum is so strong that the price moves X% away from the SuperTrend and is able to hit the Take Profit location. This Take Profit addition to this Strategy is crucial as momentum may change state shortly after such drastic price movements; and if we were to simply wait for it to come back to the SuperTrend, we may lose out on lots of potential profit.
If you refer to the Yellow Circle in this example, you’ll notice what was talked about in the Summary/Overview above. During periods of consolidation when there is little momentum and price movement and we don’t have any Stop Loss activated, you may see ‘Signal Flashing’. Signal Flashing is when there are Buy and Sell signals that keep switching back and forth. During this time you may be taking small losses. This is a normal part of this Strategy. When a signal has finally been confirmed by Momentum, is when this Strategy shines and may produce the profit you desire.
You may be wondering, what causes these jagged like patterns in the SuperTrend? It's due to the ML logic, and it may be a little confusing, but essentially what is happening is the Fast Moving SuperTrend and the Slow Moving SuperTrend are creating KNN Min and Max distances that are extreme due to (usually) parabolic movement. This causes fewer values to be added to and averaged within the ML and causes less smooth and more exponential drastic movements. This is completely normal, and one of the perks of using k-Nearest Neighbor for ML calculations. If you don’t know, the Min and Max Distance allowed is derived from the most recent(0 index of data array) to KNN Length. So only SuperTrend values that exhibit distances within these Min/Max will be allowed into the average.
Since the KNN ML logic can cause these exponential movements in the SuperTrend, they likewise affect its Take Profit. The Take Profit may benefit from this movement like displayed in the example above which helped it claim profit before then exhibiting upwards movement.
By default our Stop Loss Multiplier is kept quite low at 0.0000025. Keeping it low may help to reduce some Signal Flashing while not taking extra losses more so than not using it at all. However, if we increase it even more to say 0.005 like is shown in the example above. It can really help the trend keep momentum. Please note, although previous results don’t imply future results, at 0.0000025 Stop Loss we are currently exhibiting 69.27% profit while at 0.005 Stop Loss we are exhibiting 33.54% profit. This just goes to show that although there may be less Signal Flashing, it may not result in more profit.
We will conclude our Tutorial here. Hopefully this has given you some insight as to how Machine Learning, combined with Trailing Take Profit and Stop Loss may have positive effects on the SuperTrend when turned into a Strategy.
Settings:
SuperTrend:
ATR Length: ATR Length used to create the Original Supertrend.
Factor: Multiplier used to create the Original Supertrend.
Stop Loss Multiplier: 0 = Don't use Stop Loss. Stop loss can be useful for helping to prevent false signals but also may result in more loss when hit and less profit when switching trends.
Take Profit Multiplier: Take Profits can be useful within the Supertrend Strategy to stop the price reverting all the way to the Stop Loss once it's been profitable.
Machine Learning:
Only Factor Same Trend Direction: Very useful for ensuring that data used in KNN is not manipulated by different SuperTrend Directional data. Please note, it doesn't affect KNN Exponential.
Rationalized Source Type: Should we Rationalize only a specific source, All or None?
Machine Learning Type: Are we using a Simple ML Average, KNN Mean Average, KNN Exponential Average or None?
Machine Learning Smoothing Type: How should we smooth our Fast and Slow ML Datas to be used in our KNN Distance calculation? SMA, EMA or VWMA?
KNN Distance Type: We need to check if distance is within the KNN Min/Max distance, which distance checks are we using.
Machine Learning Length: How far back is our Machine Learning going to keep data for.
k-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) Length: How many k-Nearest Neighbours will we account for?
Fast ML Data Length: What is our Fast ML Length?? This is used with our Slow Length to create our KNN Distance.
Slow ML Data Length: What is our Slow ML Length?? This is used with our Fast Length to create our KNN Distance.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Machine Learning: Trend Lines [YinYangAlgorithms]Trend lines have always been a key indicator that may help predict many different types of price movements. They have been well known to create different types of formations such as: Pennants, Channels, Flags and Wedges. The type of formation they create is based on how the formation was created and the angle it was created. For instance, if there was a strong price increase and then there is a Wedge where both end points meet, this is considered a Bull Pennant. The formations Trend Lines create may be powerful tools that can help predict current Support and Resistance and also Future Momentum changes. However, not all Trend Lines will create formations, and alone they may stand as strong Support and Resistance locations on the Vertical.
The purpose of this Indicator is to apply Machine Learning logic to a Traditional Trend Line Calculation, and therefore allowing a new approach to a modern indicator of high usage. The results of such are quite interesting and goes to show the impacts a simple KNN Machine Learning model can have on Traditional Indicators.
Tutorial:
There are a few different settings within this Indicator. Many will greatly impact the results and if any are changed, lots will need ‘Fine Tuning’. So let's discuss the main toggles that have great effects and what they do before discussing the lengths. Currently in this example above we have the Indicator at its Default Settings. In this example, you can see how the Trend Lines act as key Support and Resistance locations. Due note, Support and Resistance are a relative term, as is their color. What starts off as Support or Resistance may change when the price crosses over / under them.
In the example above we have zoomed in and circled locations that exhibited markers of Support and Resistance along the Trend Lines. These Trend Lines are all created using the Default Settings. As you can see from the example above; just because it is a Green Upwards Trend Line, doesn’t mean it’s a Support Line. Support and Resistance is always shifting on Trend Lines based on the prices location relative to them.
We won’t go through all the Formations Trend Lines make, but the example above, we can see the Trend Lines formed a Downward Channel. Channels are when there are two parallel downwards Trend Lines that are at a relatively similar angle. This means that they won’t ever meet. What may happen when the price is within these channels, is it may bounce between the upper and lower bounds. These Channels may drive the price upwards or downwards, depending on if it is in an Upwards or Downwards Channel.
If you refer to the example above, you’ll notice that the Trend Lines are formed like traditional Trend Lines. They don’t stem from current Highs and Lows but rather Machine Learning Highs and Lows. More often than not, the Machine Learning approach to Trend Lines cause their start point and angle to be quite different than a Traditional Trend Line. Due to this, it may help predict Support and Resistance locations at are more uncommon and therefore can be quite useful.
In the example above we have turned off the toggle in Settings ‘Use Exponential Data Average’. This Settings uses a custom Exponential Data Average of the KNN rather than simply averaging the KNN. By Default it is enabled, but as you can see when it is disabled it may create some pretty strong lasting Trend Lines. This is why we advise you ZOOM OUT AS FAR AS YOU CAN. Trend Lines are only displayed when you’ve zoomed out far enough that their Start Point is visible.
As you can see in this example above, there were 3 major Upward Trend Lines created in 2020 that have had a major impact on Support and Resistance Locations within the last year. Lets zoom in and get a closer look.
We have zoomed in for this example above, and circled some of the major Support and Resistance locations that these Upward Trend Lines may have had a major impact on.
Please note, these Machine Learning Trend Lines aren’t a ‘One Size Fits All’ kind of thing. They are completely customizable within the Settings, so that you can get a tailored experience based on what Pair and Time Frame you are trading on.
When any values are changed within the Settings, you’ll likely need to ‘Fine Tune’ the rest of the settings until your desired result is met. By default the modifiable lengths within the Settings are:
Machine Learning Length: 50
KNN Length:5
Fast ML Data Length: 5
Slow ML Data Length: 30
For example, let's toggle ‘Use Exponential Data Averages’ back on and change ‘Fast ML Data Length’ from 5 to 20 and ‘Slow ML Data Length’ from 30 to 50.
As you can in the example above, all of the lines have changed. Although there are still some strong Support Locations created by the Upwards Trend Lines.
We will conclude our Tutorial here. Hopefully you’ve learned how to use Machine Learning Trend Lines and will be able to now see some more unorthodox Support and Resistance locations on the Vertical.
Settings:
Use Machine Learning Sources: If disabled Traditional Trend line sources (High and Low) will be used rather than Rational Quadratics.
Use KNN Distance Sorting: You can disable this if you wish to not have the Machine Learning Data sorted using KNN. If disabled trend line logic will be Traditional.
Use Exponential Data Average: This Settings uses a custom Exponential Data Average of the KNN rather than simply averaging the KNN.
Machine Learning Length: How strong is our Machine Learning Memory? Please note, when this value is too high the data is almost 'too' much and can lead to poor results.
K-Nearest Neighbour (KNN) Length: How many K-Nearest Neighbours are allowed with our Distance Clustering? Please note, too high or too low may lead to poor results.
Fast ML Data Length: Fast and Slow speed needs to be adjusted properly to see results. 3/5/7 all seem to work well for Fast.
Slow ML Data Length: Fast and Slow speed needs to be adjusted properly to see results. 20 - 50 all seem to work well for Slow.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
Double AI Super Trend Trading - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How It is Different
The Double AI Super Trend Trading Strategy is a cutting-edge approach that leverages the power of not one, but two AI algorithms, in tandem with the SuperTrend technical indicator. The strategy aims to provide traders with enhanced precision in market entry and exit points. It is designed to adapt to market conditions dynamically, offering the flexibility to trade in both bullish and bearish markets.
*The KNN part is mainly referred from @Zeiierman.
BTCUSD 8hr performance
ETHUSD 8hr performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
1. SuperTrend Calculation
The SuperTrend is a popular indicator that captures market trends through a combination of the Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA) and the Average True Range (ATR). This strategy utilizes two sets of SuperTrend calculations with varying lengths and factors to capture both short-term and long-term market trends.
2. KNN Algorithm
The strategy employs k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithms, which are supervised machine learning models. Two sets of KNN algorithms are used, each focused on different lengths of historical data and number of neighbors. The KNN algorithms classify the current SuperTrend data point as bullish or bearish based on the weighted sum of the labels of the k closest historical data points.
3. Signal Generation
Based on the KNN classifications and the SuperTrend indicator, the strategy generates signals for the start of a new trend and the continuation of an existing trend.
4. Trading Logic
The strategy uses these signals to enter long or short positions. It also incorporates dynamic trailing stops for exit conditions.
Local picture
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows traders to specify their trading direction: long, short, or both. This enables the strategy to be versatile and adapt to various market conditions.
█ Usage
ToolTips: Comprehensive tooltips are provided for each parameter to guide the user through the customization process.
Inputs: Traders can customize numerous parameters including the number of neighbors in KNN, ATR multiplier, and types of moving averages.
Plotting: The strategy also provides visual cues on the chart to indicate bullish or bearish trends.
Order Execution: Based on the generated signals, the strategy will execute buy or sell orders automatically.
█ Default Settings
The default settings are configured to offer a balanced approach suitable for most scenarios:
Initial Capital: $10,000
Default Quantity Type: 10% of equity
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 1
Currency: USD
These settings can be modified to suit various trading styles and asset classes.
Machine Learning: Support and Resistance [YinYangAlgorithms]Overview:
Support and Resistance is normally based upon Pivot Points and Highest Highs and Lowest Lows. Many times coders even incorporate Volume, RSI and other factors into the equation. However there may be a downside to doing a pure technical approach based on historical levels. We live in a time where Machine Learning is becoming more and more used; thus we have decided to create a Machine Learning Support and Resistance Projection based Indicator. Rather than using traditional Support and Resistance calculations using historical data, we have taken a rather different approach. This Indicator instead attempts to Predict and Project where Support and Resistance locations will be based on a Machine Learning Model using a form of KNN (k-Nearest Neighbors).
Since this indicator creates a Projection of where it deems Support and Resistance will be, it has the ability to move its Support and Resistance before the price even gets to it if it believes it will surpass its projections. This may create a more accurate placement of Support and Resistance as they’re not based on historical levels.
This Indicator does not Repaint.
How it works:
This Indicator makes its projections based on the source you provide (by default close) of the previous bar and submits the source, RSI and EMA to our Projection Function to get its projection of the current bar.
The Projection function essentially calculates potential movement after finding the differences between the source the MA from the current bar, previous bar and average over the span of Machine Learning Length.
Potential movement is defined as:
Average Difference + Average(Machine Learning Average, Average Last Distance)
Average Difference: (Absolute value of Current Source - Current MA) - (Absolute value of Machine Learning Average - Machine Learning MA)
Average Last Distance: Average(Current Source - Current MA, Previous Source - Previous MA)
It then predicts the next bars directional movement (bullish or bearish bar) using several factors:
Previous Source > Previous MA
Current Source - Current MA > Average Source - Average MA
Current RSI > Previous RSI
Current RSI > 30 and Previous RSI <= 30
Current RSI < 70 and Previous RSI >= 70
This helps us to predict the direction the next bar may move.
We then calculate a multiplier that we apply to our Potential Movement value to get our final result which is our Current Bars Close Projection.
Our multiplier is calculated using:
(Current RSI > 30 and Previous RSI <= 30) OR (Current RSI < 70 and Previous RSI >= 70)
Current Source - Current MA > Previous Source - Previous MA
We then create an array and fill it with the previous X projections (Machine Learning Length) and send it to another function. This function, if told to, will sort the data accordingly and then output the KNN average of the length given.
We calculate and plot various KNN lengths to create different Zones:
Strong Support: Length of 2 but sort the data Ascending (low to high)
Strong Resistance: Length of 2 but sort the data Descending (high to low)
Support: Length of Machine Length Length / 10 or Min of 2 sorted by Ascending
Resistance: Length of Machine Length Length / 10 or Min of 2 sorted by Descending
There are also 4 other plots you may be wondering what they are, there is your AVG, VWMA, Long Term Memory and Current Projection.
By default your Current Projection is disabled in settings but you can enable it if you are curious to see how the projections for each close are calculated. It is, however, not a crucial point of interest (white line).
The average is simply the average value of the Machine Learning Data (purple line).
The VWMA is a VWMA calculation applied to our Data over a length specified in settings (by default 1)(blue line). The VWMA is crucial when combined with the Avg as they can cross over and under each other. These crosses represent potential Bullish and Bearish zones.
Lastly, but certainly not least, we have the Long Term Memory (maroon line). The Long Term Memory can be displayed either as an ‘Average’, ‘Hard Line’ or ‘None’. The Long Term Average is only updated every Machine Learning Length Bar Index’s and is populated with the average of the Machine Learning Data. For Instance, if Machine Learning Length is set to 100, the Long Term Memory is only updated every 100 bars, and since its length is the same as the Machine Learning Length, that means its data is composed of 10,000 bars worth of data. The Long Term Memory may be very beneficial for determining where Support and Resistance lie over the Long Term within a Machine Learning Algorithm. When set to ‘Average’ it plots the connection lines diagonally, and although they may be more visually appealing, they’re less useful when it comes to actually seeing support and resistance as generally speaking, support and resistance lie on the horizontal. When set to ‘Hard Line’ the Long Term Memory is connected with hard lines and holds the price value until the next time it is updated. This makes it much more useful for potentially identifying Support and Resistance.
Tutorial:
Here is an overview of what the Indicator looks like, now let's start to dissect it.
In the example above we can see how all of the lines between the Major Support and Resistance zones may act as BOTH Support and Resistance depending on which side the price is currently on. In the circle on the left, we can see how it can fluctuate between the two. If you look at the circle on the right, we can see how the Average line acts as a strong support before it fails to maintain it. Generally speaking, most Support and Resistance locations may potentially fail to hold after 3 tests, as the Average did in this example.
As you can see, the Support and Resistance doesn’t wait to be tested before adjusting, which is why there are 2 lines which create their zones. The inner line is the Support/Resistance and the outer line is the Strong Support/Resistance. The Yellow Circle shows the inner line was able to calculate the moving resistance correctly and then adjusted accordingly as it was projecting the price to keep increasing. However, if you look at the White Circle, you can see that since there was first a crash, and then parabolic movement, that the inner zone could not move and predict the resistance as well as the outer zone could.
We consider the price to be ‘Overvalued’ when it is above the VWMA (blue line) and ‘Undervalued’ when it is below the VWMA. It is considered ‘fair’ price when it is within the VWMA to Average zone (between the blue and purple lines). If you look at the example above, you’ll notice where the two yellow circles are, it is not only considered ‘Overvalued’, but it then proceeds to ride the inner resistance line upwards. This is common when the market is overly bullish and vice versa when it is bearish. Please keep in mind, although it is common, it doesn’t mean a correction can’t happen.
In this example above we look at the last bull run that may have started due to the halving. This bull run was very bullish as you can see in the example above. The price was constantly sitting within the Resistance Zone and the VWMA that was very close to it was constantly acting as a Support. Naturally, due to the Algorithm used in this Indicator, as the momentum starts to slow down, the VWMA (blue line) will start to space out more and more from the Resistance Zone. This doesn’t mean the momentum is gone, it just means it may be slowing down.
Unfortunately we have to study the Bear Market with a different perspective than the Bull Market. However, there are still some similarities within the two. If you refer to the example above and the previous example, you can clearly see that the Bull Market loves to stay with the Resistance Zone and use the VWMA as a Support. However, the Bear Market does not. This is a normal occurrence, however we can see from the example above you may see a correction / horizontal movement when the Outer Support Line is touched. If you look at all 3 yellow circles, the Outer Support Line was touched, then either a small correction or horizontal consolidation occurred.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully you’ll be able to benefit from a moving Support and Resistance calculated with Machine Learning that projects its locations, rather than using traditional calculations.
Settings:
Source: This source is the base for all our calculations
Machine Learning Length: How much projection data are we storing and using to make calculations.
Smoothing Length: We need to smooth calculations such as RSI, EMA and VWMA. What length are we smoothing it with?
VWMA ML Projection Length: How far into our Machine Learning data should we average for our VWMA. Please note the 'Smoothing Length' is still applied here after getting the Projection Average.
Long Term Memory: Long term memory has the same storage length but is only updated once per Machine Learning Length. For instance, if Machine Learning Length is 100, it will save the Average of our data once every 100 bars. This means its memory is an average of 10,000 bars of Machine Learning. 'Average' connects its values diagonally whereas 'Hard Line' holds its value until it changes.
Use Average Last Distance In Potential Movement: This can help accuracy but generally also displaces the Support and Resistance by projecting it further.
Show Current Projection: Projections occur for each bar, and our Machine Learning utilizes these projections by storing and evaluating them. This toggle will display the Current Projection Line which is used to create all our Projections.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
AI Momentum [YinYang]Overview:
AI Momentum is a kernel function based momentum Indicator. It uses Rational Quadratics to help smooth out the Moving Averages, this may give them a more accurate result. This Indicator has 2 main uses, first it displays ‘Zones’ that help you visualize the potential movement areas and when the price is out of bounds (Overvalued or Undervalued). Secondly it creates signals that display the momentum of the current trend.
The Zones are composed of the Highest Highs and Lowest lows turned into a Rational Quadratic over varying lengths. These create our Rational High and Low zones. There is however a second zone. The second zone is composed of the avg of the Inner High and Inner Low zones (yellow line) and the Rational Quadratic of the current Close. This helps to create a second zone that is within the High and Low bounds that may represent momentum changes within these zones. When the Rationalized Close crosses above the High and Low Zone Average it may signify a bullish momentum change and vice versa when it crosses below.
There are 3 different signals created to display momentum:
Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals display when there is current bullish or bearish momentum happening within the trend. When the momentum changes there will likely be a lull where there are neither Bullish or Bearish momentum signals. These signals may be useful to help visualize when the momentum has started and stopped for both the bulls and the bears. Bullish Momentum is calculated by checking if the Rational Quadratic Close > Rational Quadratic of the Highest OHLC4 smoothed over a VWMA. The Bearish Momentum is calculated by checking the opposite.
Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum. These signals occur when the bar has Bullish or Bearish Momentum and also has an Rationalized RSI greater or less than a certain level. Bullish is >= 57 and Bearish is <= 43. There is also the option to ‘Factor Volume’ into these signals. This means, the Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals will only occur when the Rationalized Volume > VWMA Rationalized Volume as well as the previously mentioned factors above. This can be useful for removing ‘clutter’ as volume may dictate when these momentum changes will occur, but it can also remove some of the useful signals and you may miss the swing too if the volume just was low. Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum may dictate when a momentum change will occur. Remember, they are OVERLY Bullish and Bearish, meaning there is a chance a correction may occur around these signals.
Bull and Bear Crosses. These signals occur when the Rationalized Close crosses the Gaussian Close that is 2 bars back. These signals may show when there is a strong change in momentum, but be careful as more often than not they’re predicting that the momentum may change in the opposite direction.
Tutorial:
As we can see in the example above, generally what happens is we get the regular Bullish or Bearish momentum, followed by the Rationalized Close crossing the Zone average and finally the Overly Bullish or Bearish signals. This is normally the order of operations but isn’t always how it happens as sometimes momentum changes don’t make it that far; also the Rationalized Close and Zone Average don’t follow any of the same math as the Signals which can result in differing appearances. The Bull and Bear Crosses are also quite sporadic in appearance and don’t generally follow any sort of order of operations. However, they may occur as a Predictor between Bullish and Bearish momentum, signifying the beginning of the momentum change.
The Bull and Bear crosses may be a Predictor of momentum change. They generally happen when there is no Bullish or Bearish momentum happening; and this helps to add strength to their prediction. When they occur during momentum (orange circle) there is a less likely chance that it will happen, and may instead signify the exact opposite; it may help predict a large spike in momentum in the direction of the Bullish or Bearish momentum. In the case of the orange circle, there is currently Bearish Momentum and therefore the Bull Cross may help predict a large momentum movement is about to occur in favor of the Bears.
We have disabled signals here to properly display and talk about the zones. As you can see, Rationalizing the Highest Highs and Lowest Lows over 2 different lengths creates inner and outer bounds that help to predict where parabolic movement and momentum may move to. Our Inner and Outer zones are great for seeing potential Support and Resistance locations.
The secondary zone, which can cross over and change from Green to Red is also a very important zone. Let's zoom in and talk about it specifically.
The Middle Zone Crosses may help deduce where parabolic movement and strong momentum changes may occur. Generally what may happen is when the cross occurs, you will see parabolic movement to the High / Low zones. This may be the Inner zone but can sometimes be the outer zone too. The hard part is sometimes it can be a Fakeout, like displayed with the Blue Circle. The Cross doesn’t mean it may move to the opposing side, sometimes it may just be predicting Parabolic movement in a general sense.
When we turn the Momentum Signals back on, we can see where the Fakeout occurred that it not only almost hit the Inner Low Zone but it also exhibited 2 Overly Bearish Signals. Remember, Overly bearish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bulls may occur soon and overly Bullish signals mean a momentum change in favor of the Bears may occur soon.
You may be wondering, well what does “may occur soon” mean and how do we tell?
The purpose of the momentum signals is not only to let you know when Momentum has occurred and when it is still prevalent. It also matters A LOT when it has STOPPED!
In this example above, we look at when the Overly Bullish and Bearish Momentum has STOPPED. As you can see, when the Overly Bullish or Bearish Momentum stopped may be a strong predictor of potential momentum change in the opposing direction.
We will conclude our Tutorial here, hopefully this Indicator has been helpful for showing you where momentum is occurring and help predict how far it may move. We have been dabbling with and are planning on releasing a Strategy based on this Indicator shortly.
Settings:
1. Momentum:
Show Signals: Sometimes it can be difficult to visualize the zones with signals enabled.
Factor Volume: Factor Volume only applies to Overly Bullish and Bearish Signals. It's when the Volume is > VWMA Volume over the Smoothing Length.
Zone Inside Length: The Zone Inside is the Inner zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Zone Outside Length: The Zone Outside is the Outer zone of the High and Low. This is the length used to create it.
Smoothing length: Smoothing length is the length used to smooth out our Bullish and Bearish signals, along with our Overly Bullish and Overly Bearish Signals.
2. Kernel Settings:
Lookback Window: The number of bars used for the estimation. This is a sliding value that represents the most recent historical bars. Recommended range: 3-50.
Relative Weighting: Relative weighting of time frames. As this value approaches zero, the longer time frames will exert more influence on the estimation. As this value approaches infinity, the behavior of the Rational Quadratic Kernel will become identical to the Gaussian kernel. Recommended range: 0.25-25.
Start Regression at Bar: Bar index on which to start regression. The first bars of a chart are often highly volatile, and omission of these initial bars often leads to a better overall fit. Recommended range: 5-25.
If you have any questions, comments, ideas or concerns please don't hesitate to contact us.
HAPPY TRADING!
AI SuperTrend - Strategy [presentTrading]
█ Introduction and How it is Different
The AI Supertrend Strategy is a unique hybrid approach that employs both traditional technical indicators and machine learning techniques. Unlike standard strategies that rely solely on traditional indicators or mathematical models, this strategy integrates the power of k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), a machine learning algorithm, with the tried-and-true SuperTrend indicator. This blend aims to provide traders with more accurate, responsive, and context-aware trading signals.
*The KNN part is mainly referred from @Zeiierman.
BTCUSD 8hr performance
ETHUSD 8hr performance
█ Strategy, How it Works: Detailed Explanation
SuperTrend Calculation
Volume-Weighted Moving Average (VWMA): A VWMA of the close price is calculated based on the user-defined length (len). This serves as the central line around which the upper and lower bands are calculated.
Average True Range (ATR): ATR is calculated over a period defined by len. It measures the market's volatility.
Upper and Lower Bands: The upper band is calculated as VWMA + (factor * ATR) and the lower band as VWMA - (factor * ATR). The factor is a user-defined multiplier that decides how wide the bands should be.
KNN Algorithm
Data Collection: An array (data) is populated with recent n SuperTrend values. Corresponding labels (labels) are determined by whether the weighted moving average price (price) is greater than the weighted moving average of the SuperTrend (sT).
Distance Calculation: The absolute distance between each data point and the current SuperTrend value is calculated.
Sorting & Weighting: The distances are sorted in ascending order, and the closest k points are selected. Each point is weighted by the inverse of its distance to the current point.
Classification: A weighted sum of the labels of the k closest points is calculated. If the sum is closer to 1, the trend is predicted as bullish; if closer to 0, bearish.
Signal Generation
Start of Trend: A new bullish trend (Start_TrendUp) is considered to have started if the current trend color is bullish and the previous was not bullish. Similarly for bearish trends (Start_TrendDn).
Trend Continuation: A bullish trend (TrendUp) is considered to be continuing if the direction is negative and the KNN prediction is 1. Similarly for bearish trends (TrendDn).
Trading Logic
Long Condition: If Start_TrendUp or TrendUp is true, a long position is entered.
Short Condition: If Start_TrendDn or TrendDn is true, a short position is entered.
Exit Condition: Dynamic trailing stops are used for exits. If the trend does not continue as indicated by the KNN prediction and SuperTrend direction, an exit signal is generated.
The synergy between SuperTrend and KNN aims to filter out noise and produce more reliable trading signals. While SuperTrend provides a broad sense of the market direction, KNN refines this by predicting short-term price movements, leading to a more nuanced trading strategy.
Local picture
█ Trade Direction
The strategy allows traders to choose between taking only long positions, only short positions, or both. This is particularly useful for adapting to different market conditions.
█ Usage
ToolTips: Explains what each parameter does and how to adjust them.
Inputs: Customize values like the number of neighbors in KNN, ATR multiplier, and moving average type.
Plotting: Visual cues on the chart to indicate bullish or bearish trends.
Order Execution: Based on the generated signals, the strategy will execute buy/sell orders.
█ Default Settings
The default settings are selected to provide a balanced approach, but they can be modified for different trading styles and asset classes.
Initial Capital: $10,000
Default Quantity Type: 10% of equity
Commission: 0.1%
Slippage: 1
Currency: USD
By combining both machine learning and traditional technical analysis, this strategy offers a sophisticated and adaptive trading solution.
AI Trend Navigator [K-Neighbor]█ Overview
In the evolving landscape of trading and investment, the demand for sophisticated and reliable tools is ever-growing. The AI Trend Navigator is an indicator designed to meet this demand, providing valuable insights into market trends and potential future price movements. The AI Trend Navigator indicator is designed to predict market trends using the k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) classifier.
By intelligently analyzing recent price actions and emphasizing similar values, it helps traders to navigate complex market conditions with confidence. It provides an advanced way to analyze trends, offering potentially more accurate predictions compared to simpler trend-following methods.
█ Calculations
KNN Moving Average Calculation: The core of the algorithm is a KNN Moving Average that computes the mean of the 'k' closest values to a target within a specified window size. It does this by iterating through the window, calculating the absolute differences between the target and each value, and then finding the mean of the closest values. The target and value are selected based on user preferences (e.g., using the VWAP or Volatility as a target).
KNN Classifier Function: This function applies the k-nearest neighbor algorithm to classify the price action into positive, negative, or neutral trends. It looks at the nearest 'k' bars, calculates the Euclidean distance between them, and categorizes them based on the relative movement. It then returns the prediction based on the highest count of positive, negative, or neutral categories.
█ How to use
Traders can use this indicator to identify potential trend directions in different markets.
Spotting Trends: Traders can use the KNN Moving Average to identify the underlying trend of an asset. By focusing on the k closest values, this component of the indicator offers a clearer view of the trend direction, filtering out market noise.
Trend Confirmation: The KNN Classifier component can confirm existing trends by predicting the future price direction. By aligning predictions with current trends, traders can gain more confidence in their trading decisions.
█ Settings
PriceValue: This determines the type of price input used for distance calculation in the KNN algorithm.
hl2: Uses the average of the high and low prices.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
Effect: Changing this input will modify the reference values used in the KNN classification, potentially altering the predictions.
TargetValue: This sets the target variable that the KNN classification will attempt to predict.
Price Action: Uses the moving average of the closing price.
VWAP: Uses the Volume Weighted Average Price.
Volatility: Uses the Average True Range (ATR).
Effect: Selecting different targets will affect what the KNN is trying to predict, altering the nature and intent of the predictions.
Number of Closest Values: Defines how many closest values will be considered when calculating the mean for the KNN Moving Average.
Effect: Increasing this value makes the algorithm consider more nearest neighbors, smoothing the indicator and potentially making it less reactive. Decreasing this value may make the indicator more sensitive but possibly more prone to noise.
Neighbors: This sets the number of neighbors that will be considered for the KNN Classifier part of the algorithm.
Effect: Adjusting the number of neighbors affects the sensitivity and smoothness of the KNN classifier.
Smoothing Period: Defines the smoothing period for the moving average used in the KNN classifier.
Effect: Increasing this value would make the KNN Moving Average smoother, potentially reducing noise. Decreasing it would make the indicator more reactive but possibly more prone to false signals.
█ What is K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm?
At its core, the K-NN algorithm recognizes patterns within market data and analyzes the relationships and similarities between data points. By considering the 'K' most similar instances (or neighbors) within a dataset, it predicts future price movements based on historical trends. The K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm is a type of instance-based or non-generalizing learning. While K-NN is considered a relatively simple machine-learning technique, it falls under the AI umbrella.
We can classify the K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN) algorithm as a form of artificial intelligence (AI), and here's why:
Machine Learning Component: K-NN is a type of machine learning algorithm, and machine learning is a subset of AI. Machine learning is about building algorithms that allow computers to learn from and make predictions or decisions based on data. Since K-NN falls under this category, it is aligned with the principles of AI.
Instance-Based Learning: K-NN is an instance-based learning algorithm. This means that it makes decisions based on the entire training dataset rather than deriving a discriminative function from the dataset. It looks at the 'K' most similar instances (neighbors) when making a prediction, hence adapting to new information if the dataset changes. This adaptability is a hallmark of intelligent systems.
Pattern Recognition: The core of K-NN's functionality is recognizing patterns within data. It identifies relationships and similarities between data points, something akin to human pattern recognition, a key aspect of intelligence.
Classification and Regression: K-NN can be used for both classification and regression tasks, two fundamental problems in machine learning and AI. The indicator code is used for trend classification, a predictive task that aligns with the goals of AI.
Simplicity Doesn't Exclude AI: While K-NN is often considered a simpler algorithm compared to deep learning models, simplicity does not exclude something from being AI. Many AI systems are built on simple rules and can be combined or scaled to create complex behavior.
No Explicit Model Building: Unlike traditional statistical methods, K-NN does not build an explicit model during training. Instead, it waits until a prediction is required and then looks at the 'K' nearest neighbors from the training data to make that prediction. This lazy learning approach is another aspect of machine learning, part of the broader AI field.
-----------------
Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Machine Learning : Torben's Moving Median KNN BandsWhat is Median Filtering ?
Median filtering is a non-linear digital filtering technique, often used to remove noise from an image or signal. Such noise reduction is a typical pre-processing step to improve the results of later processing (for example, edge detection on an image). Median filtering is very widely used in digital image processing because, under certain conditions, it preserves edges while removing noise (but see the discussion below), also having applications in signal processing.
The main idea of the median filter is to run through the signal entry by entry, replacing each entry with the median of neighboring entries. The pattern of neighbors is called the "window", which slides, entry by entry, over the entire signal. For one-dimensional signals, the most obvious window is just the first few preceding and following entries, whereas for two-dimensional (or higher-dimensional) data the window must include all entries within a given radius or ellipsoidal region (i.e. the median filter is not a separable filter).
The median filter works by taking the median of all the pixels in a neighborhood around the current pixel. The median is the middle value in a sorted list of numbers. This means that the median filter is not sensitive to the order of the pixels in the neighborhood, and it is not affected by outliers (very high or very low values).
The median filter is a very effective way to remove noise from images. It can remove both salt and pepper noise (random white and black pixels) and Gaussian noise (randomly distributed pixels with a Gaussian distribution). The median filter is also very good at preserving edges, which is why it is often used as a pre-processing step for edge detection.
However, the median filter can also blur images. This is because the median filter replaces each pixel with the value of the median of its neighbors. This can cause the edges of objects in the image to be smoothed out. The amount of blurring depends on the size of the window used by the median filter. A larger window will blur more than a smaller window.
The median filter is a very versatile tool that can be used for a variety of tasks in image processing. It is a good choice for removing noise and preserving edges, but it can also blur images. The best way to use the median filter is to experiment with different window sizes to find the setting that produces the desired results.
What is this Indicator ?
K-nearest neighbors (KNN) is a simple, non-parametric machine learning algorithm that can be used for both classification and regression tasks. The basic idea behind KNN is to find the K most similar data points to a new data point and then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
Torben's moving median is a variation of the median filter that is used to remove noise from images. The median filter works by replacing each pixel in an image with the median of its neighbors. Torben's moving median works in a similar way, but it also averages the values of the neighbors. This helps to reduce the amount of blurring that can occur with the median filter.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a hybrid algorithm that combines the strengths of both KNN and Torben's moving median. KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data, while Torben's moving median is able to remove noise from the data. This combination can lead to better performance than either algorithm on its own.
To implement KNN over Torben's moving median, we first need to choose a value for K. The value of K controls how many neighbors are used to predict the label of a new data point. A larger value of K will make the algorithm more robust to noise, but it will also make the algorithm less sensitive to local variations in the data.
Once we have chosen a value for K, we need to train the algorithm on a dataset of labeled data points. The training dataset will be used to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
Once the algorithm is trained, we can use it to predict the labels of new data points. To do this, we first need to find the K most similar data points to the new data point. We can then use the labels of those K data points to predict the label of the new data point.
KNN over Torben's moving median is a simple, yet powerful algorithm that can be used for a variety of tasks. It is particularly well-suited for tasks where the data is noisy or where the underlying distribution of the data is unknown.
Here are some of the advantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN is able to learn the underlying distribution of the data.
KNN is robust to noise.
KNN is not sensitive to local variations in the data.
Here are some of the disadvantages of using KNN over Torben's moving median:
KNN can be computationally expensive for large datasets.
KNN can be sensitive to the choice of K.
KNN can be slow to train.
Machine Learning: Lorentzian Classification█ OVERVIEW
A Lorentzian Distance Classifier (LDC) is a Machine Learning classification algorithm capable of categorizing historical data from a multi-dimensional feature space. This indicator demonstrates how Lorentzian Classification can also be used to predict the direction of future price movements when used as the distance metric for a novel implementation of an Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm.
█ BACKGROUND
In physics, Lorentzian space is perhaps best known for its role in describing the curvature of space-time in Einstein's theory of General Relativity (2). Interestingly, however, this abstract concept from theoretical physics also has tangible real-world applications in trading.
Recently, it was hypothesized that Lorentzian space was also well-suited for analyzing time-series data (4), (5). This hypothesis has been supported by several empirical studies that demonstrate that Lorentzian distance is more robust to outliers and noise than the more commonly used Euclidean distance (1), (3), (6). Furthermore, Lorentzian distance was also shown to outperform dozens of other highly regarded distance metrics, including Manhattan distance, Bhattacharyya similarity, and Cosine similarity (1), (3). Outside of Dynamic Time Warping based approaches, which are unfortunately too computationally intensive for PineScript at this time, the Lorentzian Distance metric consistently scores the highest mean accuracy over a wide variety of time series data sets (1).
Euclidean distance is commonly used as the default distance metric for NN-based search algorithms, but it may not always be the best choice when dealing with financial market data. This is because financial market data can be significantly impacted by proximity to major world events such as FOMC Meetings and Black Swan events. This event-based distortion of market data can be framed as similar to the gravitational warping caused by a massive object on the space-time continuum. For financial markets, the analogous continuum that experiences warping can be referred to as "price-time".
Below is a side-by-side comparison of how neighborhoods of similar historical points appear in three-dimensional Euclidean Space and Lorentzian Space:
This figure demonstrates how Lorentzian space can better accommodate the warping of price-time since the Lorentzian distance function compresses the Euclidean neighborhood in such a way that the new neighborhood distribution in Lorentzian space tends to cluster around each of the major feature axes in addition to the origin itself. This means that, even though some nearest neighbors will be the same regardless of the distance metric used, Lorentzian space will also allow for the consideration of historical points that would otherwise never be considered with a Euclidean distance metric.
Intuitively, the advantage inherent in the Lorentzian distance metric makes sense. For example, it is logical that the price action that occurs in the hours after Chairman Powell finishes delivering a speech would resemble at least some of the previous times when he finished delivering a speech. This may be true regardless of other factors, such as whether or not the market was overbought or oversold at the time or if the macro conditions were more bullish or bearish overall. These historical reference points are extremely valuable for predictive models, yet the Euclidean distance metric would miss these neighbors entirely, often in favor of irrelevant data points from the day before the event. By using Lorentzian distance as a metric, the ML model is instead able to consider the warping of price-time caused by the event and, ultimately, transcend the temporal bias imposed on it by the time series.
For more information on the implementation details of the Approximate Nearest Neighbors (ANN) algorithm used in this indicator, please refer to the detailed comments in the source code.
█ HOW TO USE
Below is an explanatory breakdown of the different parts of this indicator as it appears in the interface:
Below is an explanation of the different settings for this indicator:
General Settings:
Source - This has a default value of "hlc3" and is used to control the input data source.
Neighbors Count - This has a default value of 8, a minimum value of 1, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the number of neighbors to consider.
Max Bars Back - This has a default value of 2000.
Feature Count - This has a default value of 5, a minimum value of 2, and a maximum value of 5. It controls the number of features to use for ML predictions.
Color Compression - This has a default value of 1, a minimum value of 1, and a maximum value of 10. It is used to control the compression factor for adjusting the intensity of the color scale.
Show Exits - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to show the exit threshold on the chart.
Use Dynamic Exits - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to attempt to let profits ride by dynamically adjusting the exit threshold based on kernel regression.
Feature Engineering Settings:
Note: The Feature Engineering section is for fine-tuning the features used for ML predictions. The default values are optimized for the 4H to 12H timeframes for most charts, but they should also work reasonably well for other timeframes. By default, the model can support features that accept two parameters (Parameter A and Parameter B, respectively). Even though there are only 4 features provided by default, the same feature with different settings counts as two separate features. If the feature only accepts one parameter, then the second parameter will default to EMA-based smoothing with a default value of 1. These features represent the most effective combination I have encountered in my testing, but additional features may be added as additional options in the future.
Feature 1 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX".
Feature 2 - This has a default value of "WT" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX".
Feature 3 - This has a default value of "CCI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX".
Feature 4 - This has a default value of "ADX" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX".
Feature 5 - This has a default value of "RSI" and options are: "RSI", "WT", "CCI", "ADX".
Filters Settings:
Use Volatility Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the volatility filter.
Use Regime Filter - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to use the trend detection filter.
Use ADX Filter - This has a default value of false. It is used to control whether to use the ADX filter.
Regime Threshold - This has a default value of -0.1, a minimum value of -10, a maximum value of 10, and a step of 0.1. It is used to control the Regime Detection filter for detecting Trending/Ranging markets.
ADX Threshold - This has a default value of 20, a minimum value of 0, a maximum value of 100, and a step of 1. It is used to control the threshold for detecting Trending/Ranging markets.
Kernel Regression Settings:
Trade with Kernel - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to trade with the kernel.
Show Kernel Estimate - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the kernel estimate.
Lookback Window - This has a default value of 8 and a minimum value of 3. It is used to control the number of bars used for the estimation. Recommended range: 3-50
Relative Weighting - This has a default value of 8 and a step size of 0.25. It is used to control the relative weighting of time frames. Recommended range: 0.25-25
Start Regression at Bar - This has a default value of 25. It is used to control the bar index on which to start regression. Recommended range: 0-25
Display Settings:
Show Bar Colors - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to show the bar colors.
Show Bar Prediction Values - This has a default value of true. It controls whether to show the ML model's evaluation of each bar as an integer.
Use ATR Offset - This has a default value of false. It controls whether to use the ATR offset instead of the bar prediction offset.
Bar Prediction Offset - This has a default value of 0 and a minimum value of 0. It is used to control the offset of the bar predictions as a percentage from the bar high or close.
Backtesting Settings:
Show Backtest Results - This has a default value of true. It is used to control whether to display the win rate of the given configuration.
█ WORKS CITED
(1) R. Giusti and G. E. A. P. A. Batista, "An Empirical Comparison of Dissimilarity Measures for Time Series Classification," 2013 Brazilian Conference on Intelligent Systems, Oct. 2013, DOI: 10.1109/bracis.2013.22.
(2) Y. Kerimbekov, H. Ş. Bilge, and H. H. Uğurlu, "The use of Lorentzian distance metric in classification problems," Pattern Recognition Letters, vol. 84, 170–176, Dec. 2016, DOI: 10.1016/j.patrec.2016.09.006.
(3) A. Bagnall, A. Bostrom, J. Large, and J. Lines, "The Great Time Series Classification Bake Off: An Experimental Evaluation of Recently Proposed Algorithms." ResearchGate, Feb. 04, 2016.
(4) H. Ş. Bilge, Yerzhan Kerimbekov, and Hasan Hüseyin Uğurlu, "A new classification method by using Lorentzian distance metric," ResearchGate, Sep. 02, 2015.
(5) Y. Kerimbekov and H. Şakir Bilge, "Lorentzian Distance Classifier for Multiple Features," Proceedings of the 6th International Conference on Pattern Recognition Applications and Methods, 2017, DOI: 10.5220/0006197004930501.
(6) V. Surya Prasath et al., "Effects of Distance Measure Choice on KNN Classifier Performance - A Review." .
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
@veryfid - For many invaluable insights, discussions, and advice that helped to shape this project.
@capissimo - For open sourcing his interesting ideas regarding various KNN implementations in PineScript, several of which helped inspire my original undertaking of this project.
@RikkiTavi - For many invaluable physics-related conversations and for his helping me develop a mechanism for visualizing various distance algorithms in 3D using JavaScript
@jlaurel - For invaluable literature recommendations that helped me to understand the underlying subject matter of this project.
@annutara - For help in beta-testing this indicator and for sharing many helpful ideas and insights early on in its development.
@jasontaylor7 - For helping to beta-test this indicator and for many helpful conversations that helped to shape my backtesting workflow
@meddymarkusvanhala - For helping to beta-test this indicator
@dlbnext - For incredibly detailed backtesting testing of this indicator and for sharing numerous ideas on how the user experience could be improved.
kNNLibrary "kNN"
Collection of experimental kNN functions. This is a work in progress, an improvement upon my original kNN script:
The script can be recreated with this library. Unlike the original script, that used multiple arrays, this has been reworked with the new Pine Script matrix features.
To make a kNN prediction, the following data should be supplied to the wrapper:
kNN : filter type. Right now either Binary or Percent . Binary works like in the original script: the system stores whether the price has increased (+1) or decreased (-1) since the previous knnStore event (called when either long or short condition is supplied). Percent works the same, but the values stored are the difference of prices in percents. That way larger differences in prices would give higher scores.
k : number k. This is how many nearest neighbors are to be selected (and summed up to get the result).
skew : kNN minimum difference. Normally, the prediction is done with a simple majority of the neighbor votes. If skew is given, then more than a simple majority is needed for a prediction. This also means that there are inputs for which no prediction would be given (if the majority votes are between -skew and +skew). Note that in Percent mode more profitable trades will have higher voting power.
depth : kNN matrix size limit. Originally, the whole available history of trades was used to make a prediction. This not only requires more computational power, but also neglects the fact that the market conditions are changing. This setting restricts the memory matrix to a finite number of past trades.
price : price series
long : long condition. True if the long conditions are met, but filters are not yet applied. For example, in my original script, trades are only made on crossings of fast and slow MAs. So, whenever it is possible to go long, this value is set true. False otherwise.
short : short condition. Same as long , but for short condition.
store : whether the inputs should be stored. Additional filters may be applied to prevent bad trades (for example, trend-based filters), so if you only need to consult kNN without storing the trade, this should be set to false.
feature1 : current value of feature 1. A feature in this case is some kind of data derived from the price. Different features may be used to analyse the price series. For example, oscillator values. Not all of them may be used for kNN prediction. As the current kNN implementation is 2-dimensional, only two features can be used.
feature2 : current value of feature 2.
The wrapper returns a tuple: [ longOK, shortOK ]. This is a pair of filters. When longOK is true, then kNN predicts a long trade may be taken. When shortOK is true, then kNN predicts a short trade may be taken. The kNN filters are returned whenever long or short conditions are met. The trade is supposed to happen when long or short conditions are met and when the kNN filter for the desired direction is true.
Exported functions :
knnStore(knn, p1, p2, src, maxrows)
Store the previous trade; buffer the current one until results are in. Results are binary: up/down
Parameters:
knn : knn matrix
p1 : feature 1 value
p2 : feature 2 value
src : current price
maxrows : limit the matrix size to this number of rows (0 of no limit)
Returns: modified knn matrix
knnStorePercent(knn, p1, p2, src, maxrows)
Store the previous trade; buffer the current one until results are in. Results are in percents
Parameters:
knn : knn matrix
p1 : feature 1 value
p2 : feature 2 value
src : current price
maxrows : limit the matrix size to this number of rows (0 of no limit)
Returns: modified knn matrix
knnGet(distance, result)
Get neighbours by getting k results with the smallest distances
Parameters:
distance : distance array
result : result array
Returns: array slice of k results
knnDistance(knn, p1, p2)
Create a distance array from the two given parameters
Parameters:
knn : knn matrix
p1 : feature 1 value
p2 : feature 2 value
Returns: distance array
knnSum(knn, p1, p2, k)
Make a prediction, finding k nearest neighbours and summing them up
Parameters:
knn : knn matrix
p1 : feature 1 value
p2 : feature 2 value
k : sum k nearest neighbors
Returns: sum of k nearest neighbors
doKNN(kNN, k, skew, depth, price, long, short, store, feature1, feature2)
execute kNN filter
Parameters:
kNN : filter type
k : number k
skew : kNN minimum difference
depth : kNN matrix size limit
price : series
long : long condition
short : short condition
store : store the supplied features (if false, only checks the results without storage)
feature1 : feature 1 value
feature2 : feature 2 value
Returns: filter output
Machine Learning: kNN (New Approach)Description:
kNN is a very robust and simple method for data classification and prediction. It is very effective if the training data is large. However, it is distinguished by difficulty at determining its main parameter, K (a number of nearest neighbors), beforehand. The computation cost is also quite high because we need to compute distance of each instance to all training samples. Nevertheless, in algorithmic trading KNN is reported to perform on a par with such techniques as SVM and Random Forest. It is also widely used in the area of data science.
The input data is just a long series of prices over time without any particular features. The value to be predicted is just the next bar's price. The way that this problem is solved for both nearest neighbor techniques and for some other types of prediction algorithms is to create training records by taking, for instance, 10 consecutive prices and using the first 9 as predictor values and the 10th as the prediction value. Doing this way, given 100 data points in your time series you could create 10 different training records. It's possible to create even more training records than 10 by creating a new record starting at every data point. For instance, you could take the first 10 data points and create a record. Then you could take the 10 consecutive data points starting at the second data point, the 10 consecutive data points starting at the third data point, etc.
By default, shown are only 10 initial data points as predictor values and the 6th as the prediction value.
Here is a step-by-step workthrough on how to compute K nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm for quantitative data:
1. Determine parameter K = number of nearest neighbors.
2. Calculate the distance between the instance and all the training samples. As we are dealing with one-dimensional distance, we simply take absolute value from the instance to value of x (| x – v |).
3. Rank the distance and determine nearest neighbors based on the K'th minimum distance.
4. Gather the values of the nearest neighbors.
5. Use average of nearest neighbors as the prediction value of the instance.
The original logic of the algorithm was slightly modified, and as a result at approx. N=17 the resulting curve nicely approximates that of the sma(20). See the description below. Beside the sma-like MA this algorithm also gives you a hint on the direction of the next bar move.
VWMA with kNN Machine Learning: MFI/ADXThis is an experimental strategy that uses a Volume-weighted MA (VWMA) crossing together with Machine Learning kNN filter that uses ADX and MFI to predict, whether the signal is useful. k-nearest neighbours (kNN) is one of the simplest Machine Learning classification algorithms: it puts input parameters in a multidimensional space, and then when a new set of parameters are given, it makes a prediction based on plurality vote of its k neighbours.
Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator similar to RSI, but with volume taken into account. Average Directional Index (ADX) is an indicator of trend strength. By putting them together on two-dimensional space and checking, whether nearby values have indicated a strong uptrend or downtrend, we hope to filter out bad signals from the MA crossing strategy.
This is an experiment, so any feedback would be appreciated. It was tested on BTC/USDT pair on 5 minute timeframe. I am planning to expand this strategy in the future to include more moving averages and filters.
Machine Learning: kNN-based Strategy (update)kNN-based Strategy (FX and Crypto)
Description:
This update to the popular kNN-based strategy features:
improvements in the business logic,
an adjustible k value for the kNN model,
one more feature (MOM),
a streamlined signal filter and
some other minor fixes.
Now this script works in all timeframes !
I intentionally decided to publish this script separately
in order for the users to see the differences.
Machine Learning: kNN-based Strategy (mtf)This is a multi-timeframe version of the kNN-based strategy.
Machine Learning: kNN-based StrategykNN-based Strategy (FX and Crypto)
Description:
This strategy uses a classic machine learning algorithm - k Nearest Neighbours (kNN) - to let you find a prediction for the next (tomorrow's, next month's, etc.) market move. Being an unsupervised machine learning algorithm, kNN is one of the most simple learning algorithms.
To do a prediction of the next market move, the kNN algorithm uses the historic data, collected in 3 arrays - feature1, feature2 and directions, - and finds the k-nearest
neighbours of the current indicator(s) values.
The two dimensional kNN algorithm just has a look on what has happened in the past when the two indicators had a similar level. It then looks at the k nearest neighbours,
sees their state and thus classifies the current point.
The kNN algorithm offers a framework to test all kinds of indicators easily to see if they have got any *predictive value*. One can easily add cog, wpr and others.
Note: TradingViews's playback feature helps to see this strategy in action.
Warning: Signals ARE repainting.
Style tags: Trend Following, Trend Analysis
Asset class: Equities, Futures, ETFs, Currencies and Commodities
Dataset: FX Minutes/Hours+++/Days
