Trend Titan Neutronstar [QuantraSystems]Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR
Credits
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR is a comprehensive aggregation of nearly 100 unique indicators and custom combinations, primarily developed from unique and public domain code.
We'd like to thank our TradingView community members: @IkKeOmar for allowing us to add his well-built "Normalized KAMA Oscillator" and "Adaptive Trend Lines " indicators to the aggregation, as well as @DojiEmoji for his valuable "Drift Study (Inspired by Monte Carlo Simulations with BM)".
Introduction
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR is a robust trend following algorithm meticulously crafted to meet the demands of crypto investors. Designed with a multi layered aggregation approach, NEUTRONSTAR excels in navigating the unique volatility and rapid shifts of the cryptocurrency market. By stacking and refining a variety of carefully selected indicators, it combines their individual strengths while reducing the impact of noise or false signals. This "aggregation of aggregators" approach enables NEUTRONSTAR to produce a consistently reliable trend signal across assets and timeframes, making it an exceptional tool for investors focused on medium to long term market positioning.
NEUTRONSTAR ’s powerful trend following capabilities provide investors with straightforward, data driven analysis. It signals when tokens exhibit sustained upward momentum and systematically removes allocations from assets showing signs of weakness. This structure aids investors in recognizing peak market phases. In fact, one of NEUTRONSTAR ’s most valuable applications is its potential to help investors time exits near the peak of bull markets. This aims to maximize gains while mitigating exposure to downturns.
Ultimately, NEUTRONSTAR equips investors with a high precision, adaptable framework for strategic decision making. It offers robust support to identify strong trends, manage risk, and navigate the dynamic crypto market landscape.
With over a year of rigorous forward testing and live trading, NEUTRONSTAR demonstrates remarkable robustness and effectiveness, maintaining its performance without succumbing to overfitting. The system has been purposefully designed to avoid unnecessary optimization to past data, ensuring it can adapt as market conditions evolve. By focusing on aggregating valuable trend signals rather than tuning to historical performance, the NEUTRONSTAR serves as a reliable universal trend following system that aligns with the natural market cycles of growth and correction.
Core Methodology
The foundation of the NEUTRONSTAR lies in its multi aggregated structure, where five custom developed trend models are combined to capture the dominant market direction. Each of these aggregates has been carefully crafted with a specific trend signaling period in mind, allowing it to adapt seamlessly across various timeframes and asset classes. Here’s a breakdown of the key components:
FLARE - The original Quantra Signaling Matrix (QSM) model, best suited for timeframes above 12 hours. It forms the foundation of long term trend detection, providing stable signals.
FLAREV2 - A refined and more sophisticated model that performs well across both high and low timeframes, adding a layer of adaptability to the system.
NEBULA - An advanced model combining FLARE and FLAREV2. NEBULA brings the advantages of both components together, enhancing reliability and capturing smoother, more accurate trends.
SPARK - A high speed trend aggregator based on the QSM Universal model. It focuses on fast moving trends, providing early signals of potential shifts.
SUNBURST - A balanced aggregate that combines elements of SPARK and FLARE, confirming SPARK’s signals while minimizing false positives.
Each of these models contributes its own unique perspective on market movement. By layering fast, medium, and slower trend following signals, NEUTRONSTAR can confirm strong trends while filtering out shorter term noise. The result is a comprehensive tool that signals clear market direction with minimized false signals.
A Unique Approach to Trend Aggregation
One of the defining characteristics of NEUTRONSTAR is its deliberate choice to avoid perfectly time coherent indicators within its aggregation. In simpler terms, NEUTRONSTAR purposefully incorporates trend following indicators with slightly different signal periods, rather than synchronizing all components to a single signaling period. This choice brings significant benefits in terms of diversification, adaptability, and robustness of the overall trend signal.
When aggregating multiple trend following components, if all indicators were perfectly time coherent - meaning they responded to market changes in exactly the same way and over the time periods - the resulting signal would effectively be no different from a single trend following indicator. This uniformity would limit the system’s ability to capture a variety of market conditions, leaving it vulnerable to the same noise or false signals that any single indicator might encounter. Instead, NEUTRONSTAR leverages a balanced mix of indicators with varied timing: some fast, some slower, and some in the medium range. This choice allows the system to extract the unique strengths of each component, creating a combined signal that is stronger and more reliable than any single indicator.
By incorporating different signal periods, NEUTRONSTAR achieves what can be thought of as a form of edge accumulation. The fast components within NEUTRONSTAR , for example, are highly sensitive to quick shifts in market direction. These indicators excel at identifying early trend signals, enabling NEUTRONSTAR to react swiftly to emerging momentum. However, these fast indicators alone would be prone to reacting to market noise, potentially generating too many premature signals. This is where the medium term indicators come into play. These components operate with a slower reaction time, filtering out the short term fluctuations and confirming the direction of the trend established by the faster indicators. The combination of these varying signal speeds results in a balanced, adaptive response to market changes.
This approach also allows NEUTRONSTAR to adapt to different market regimes seamlessly. In fast moving, volatile markets, the faster indicators provide an early alert to potential trend shifts, while the slower components offer a stabilizing influence, preventing overreaction to temporary noise. Conversely, in steadier or trending markets, the medium and slower indicators sustain the trend signal, reducing the likelihood of premature exits. This flexible design enhances NEUTRONSTAR ’s ability to operate effectively across multiple asset classes and timeframes, from short term fluctuations to longer term market cycles.
The result is a powerful, multi-layered trend following tool that remains adaptive, capturing the benefits of both fast and medium paced reactions without becoming overly sensitive to short term noise. This unique aggregation methodology also supports NEUTRONSTAR ’s robustness, reducing the risk of overfitting to historical data and ensuring that the system can perform reliably in forward testing and live trading environments. The slightly staggered signal periods provide a greater degree of resilience, making NEUTRONSTAR a dependable choice for traders looking to capitalize on sustained trends while minimizing exposure during periods of market uncertainty.
In summary, the lack of perfect time coherence among NEUTRONSTAR ’s sub components is not a flaw - but a deliberate, robust design choice.
Risk Management through Market Mode Analysis
An essential part of NEUTRONSTAR is its ability to assess the market's underlying behavior and adapt accordingly. It employs a Market Mode Analysis mechanism that identifies when the market is either in a “Trending State” or a “Mean Reverting State.” When enough confidence is established that the market is trending, the system confirms and signals a “Trending State,” which is optimal for maintaining positions in the direction of the trend. Conversely, if there’s insufficient confidence, it labels the market as “Mean Reverting,” alerting traders to potentially avoid trend trades during likely sideways movement.
This distinction is particularly valuable in crypto, where asset prices often oscillate between aggressive trends and consolidation periods. The Market Mode Analysis keeps traders aligned with the broader market conditions, minimizing exposure during periods of potential whipsaws and maximizing gains during sustained trends.
Zero Overfitting: Design and Testing for Real World Resilience
Unlike many trend following indicators that rely heavily on backtesting and optimization, NEUTRONSTAR was built to perform well in forward testing and live trading without post design adjustments. Over a year of live market exposure has all but proven its robustness, with the system’s methodology focused on universal applicability and simplicity rather than curve fitting to past data. This approach ensures the aggregator remains effective across different market cycles and maintains relevance as new data unfolds.
By avoiding overfitting, NEUTRONSTAR is inherently more resistant to the common issue of strategy degradation over time, making it a valuable tool for traders seeking reliable market analysis you can trust for the long term.
Settings and Customization Options
To accommodate a range of trading styles and market conditions, NEUTRONSTAR includes adjustable settings that allow for fine tuning sensitivity and signal generation:
Calculation Method - Users can choose between calculating the NEUTRONSTAR score based on aggregated scores or by using the state of individual aggregates (long, neutral, short). The score method provides faster signals with slightly more noise, while the state based approach offers a smoother signal.
Sensitivity Threshold - This setting adjusts the system’s sensitivity, defining the width of the neutral zone. Higher thresholds reduce sensitivity, allowing for a broader range of volatility before triggering a trend reversal.
Market Regime Sensitivity - A sensitivity adjustment, ranging from 0 to 100, that affects the sensitivity of the sub components in market regime calculation.
These settings offer flexibility for users to tailor NEUTRONSTAR to their specific needs, whether for medium term investment strategies or shorter term trading setups.
Visualization and Legend
For intuitive usability, NEUTRONSTAR uses color coded bar overlays to indicate trend direction:
Green - indicates an uptrend.
Gray - signals a neutral or transition phase.
Purple - denotes a downtrend.
An optional background color can be enabled for market mode visualization, indicating the overall market state as either trending or mean reverting. This feature allows traders to assess trend direction and strength at a glance, simplifying decision making.
Additional Metrics Table
To support strategic decision making, NEUTRONSTAR includes an additional metrics table for in depth analysis:
Performance Ratios - Sharpe, Sortino, and Omega ratios assess the asset’s risk adjusted returns.
Volatility Insights - Provides an average volatility measure, valuable for understanding market stability.
Beta Measurement - Calculates asset beta against BTC, offering insight into asset volatility in the context of the broader market.
These metrics provide deeper insights into individual asset behavior, supporting more informed trend based allocations. The table is fully customizable, allowing traders to adjust the position and size for a seamless integration into their workspace.
Final Summary
The Trend Titan NEUTRONSTAR indicator is a powerful and resilient trend following system for crypto markets, built with a unique aggregation of high performance models to deliver dependable, noise reduced trend signals. Its robust design, free from overfitting, ensures adaptability across various assets and timeframes. With customizable sensitivity settings, intuitive color coded visualization, and an advanced risk metrics table, NEUTRONSTAR provides traders with a comprehensive tool for identifying and riding profitable trends, while safeguarding capital during unfavorable market phases.
Longterm
Johnny's Adjusted BB Buy/Sell Signal"Johnny's Adjusted BB Buy/Sell Signal" leverages Bollinger Bands and moving averages to provide dynamic buy and sell signals based on market conditions. This indicator is particularly useful for traders looking to identify strategic entry and exit points based on volatility and trend analysis.
How It Works
Bollinger Bands Setup: The indicator calculates Bollinger Bands using a specified length and multiplier. These bands serve to identify potential overbought (upper band) or oversold (lower band) conditions.
Moving Averages: Two moving averages are calculated — a trend moving average (trendMA) and a long-term moving average (longTermMA) — to gauge the market's direction over different time frames.
Market Phase Determination: The script classifies the market into bullish or bearish phases based on the relationship of the closing price to the long-term moving average.
Strong Buy and Sell Signals: Enhanced signals are generated based on how significantly the price deviates from the Bollinger Bands, coupled with the average candle size over a specified lookback period. The signals are adjusted based on whether the market is bullish or bearish:
In bullish markets, a strong buy signal is triggered if the price significantly drops below the lower Bollinger Band. Conversely, a strong sell signal is activated when the price rises well above the upper band.
In bearish markets, these signals are modified to be more conservative, adjusting the thresholds for triggering strong buy and sell signals.
Features:
Flexibility: Users can adjust the length of the Bollinger Bands and moving averages, as well as the multipliers and factors that determine the strength of buy and sell signals, making it highly customizable to different trading styles and market conditions.
Visual Aids: The script vividly plots the Bollinger Bands and moving averages, and signals are visually represented on the chart, allowing traders to quickly assess trading opportunities:
Regular buy and sell signals are indicated by simple shapes below or above price bars.
Strong buy and sell signals are highlighted with distinctive colors and placed prominently to catch the trader's attention.
Background Coloring: The background color changes based on the market phase, providing an immediate visual cue of the market's overall sentiment.
Usage:
This indicator is ideal for traders who rely on technical analysis to guide their trading decisions. By integrating both Bollinger Bands and moving averages, it provides a multi-faceted view of market trends and volatility, making it suitable for identifying potential reversals and continuation patterns. Traders can use this tool to enhance their understanding of market dynamics and refine their trading strategies accordingly.
DNS Relax Buy/SellDNS Relax Buy/Sell Indicator
It is a very simple indicator to use for long-term investors.
It uses ema 3 in Buy and Sell alerts. If ema 3 crosses the baseline line (ema200 Daily) up, it means Buy, and if it breaks down, it means Sell.
There is also a 'take profit line' to determine and see the profit rate.
It can be changed from the settings.
Additionally, the blue line on the indicator (appears as full blue) is the closing price line of the bar where the buy signal is located. It can be turned off from the style settings.
You can also turn buy and sell signals on and off from the settings.
My advice to you is to use this indicator in small time periods. for example, in 1-minute, 3-minutes or 5-minutes time periods.
It can be used in all financial instruments.
Wishing you to always win.
Buy Below Prev_Low. Sell 100% Above Avg. Pyramiding.This is simple indicator script for long term investors. It will check if the low of today is less than low of yesterday (or any time frame candle) and if the condition is satisfied, then the alert will be triggerred and that particular stock will be bought.
Each time a unit is bought, the average price is calculated and also the trget selling price, which is set at 100% above the average buying price. So once the price reaches that selling price target, the entire holding is sold.
The code resets all the variables back to 0 once a sell signal is triggerred.
Fetch Buy And Hold StrategyThis script was created as an experiment using ChatGPT. I actually woudn't recommend using the ai program to help you with your Pinescripts, as it makes a fair amount of mistakes. It was a fun experiment however.
The script is a simple buy and hold tool. Here's what it does:
- Everytime the rsi enters below the set treshold, a counter increases.
- The second increase of the counter happens when the price goes above the treshold, and then dips below the treshold again.
- The program would fire off a buy signal when the counter hits the number 3.
- After the buy. the counter will reset.
Lets take a look at the following example where the rsi treshold is 30:
- So the rsi dips below 30 and the initial counter is set from 0 to 1.
- The price rises which brings the rsi back to 40.
- Then another dip happens and the rsi is now 25, increasing the counter from 1 two.
- Rsi now dips to 23 and nothing happens.
- Rsi goes back up to 31, and dips back to 28 which puts the counter at 3. A buy singal is now fired and the counter is set to 0.
Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio) [WhaleCrew]Our Implementation of the famous Shiller PE Ratio (aka C yclically A djusted P rice-to- E arnings Ratio) a long-term valuation indicator for the S&P 500.
Calculation: Share price divided by 10 - year average, inflation - adjusted earnings
The indicator works on the M and 12M timeframe and has a built-in moving average that supports an upper and lower bollinger band.
Pivot Highs&lows: Short/Medium/Long-term + Spikeyness FilterShows Pivot Highs & Lows defined or 'Graded' on a fractal basis: Short-term, medium-term and long-term. Also applies 'Spikeyness' condition by default to filter-out weak/rounded pivots
ES1! 4hr chart (CME) shown above, with lookback = 15; clearly identifying the major highs & lows on the basis of how they are fractally 'nested' within lesser Pivots.
-- in the above chart Short term pivot highs (STH) are simply represented by green 'ʌ', and short-term pivot lows (STL) are simply represented by orange 'v'.
//Basics: (as applying to pivot highs, the following is reversed for pivot lows)
-Short term highs (STH) are simple pivot highs, albeit refined from standard with the 'spikeyness' filter.
-Medium-term highs (MTH) are defined as having a lower STH on either side of them.
-Long-term highs (LTH) are defined as having a lower MTH on either side of them.
//Purpose:
-Education: Quick and easy visualization of the strength or importance of a pivot high or low; a way of grading them based on their larger context.
-Backtesting: use in combination with other trading methods when backtesting to see the relative significance and price sensitivity of LTHs/LTLs compared to lower grade highs and lows.
//Settings:
-Choose Pivot lookback/lookforward bars: One setting, the basis from which all further pivot calculations are done.
-Toggle on/off 'Spikeyness' condition to filter-out weak/rounded/unimpressive pivot highs or lows (default is ON).
-Toggle on/off each of STH, MTH, LTH, STL, MTL, LTL; and choose label text-styles/colors/sizes independently.
-Set text Vertically, horizonally, or simply use 'ʌ' or 'v' symbols if you want to declutter your chart.
//Usage notes:
-Pivots take time to print (lookback bars must have elapsed before confirmation). Fractally nested pivots as here (i.e. a LTH), take even longer to print/confirm, so please be patient.
-Works across timeframes & Assets. Different timeframes may require slightly tweaked lookback/forward settings for optimal use; default is 15 bars.
Example usage with just symbolic labels short-term, med-term, long-term with 1x, 2x and 3x ʌ/v respectively:
Invest-Long : Script for quick checks before investingA simple script to verify RSI, SMAs, VWMA, and Pivots on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames.
In case if you are not interested in SMA's or want to add different cheks -- simply copy the script to local and edit.
Happy investing.
Add the script to any chart and table values remain the same irrespective of current chart resolution, as it checks on Daily, Weekly, and Monthly time frames.
The table has multiple columns.
1st column checks on RSI value on all 3 timeframes. Ideally, look for all green and D>W>M
2nd Column: Check current Close is above 20 SMA and 50 SMA on Daily / Weekly / Monthly time frames
3rd Column: Check SMA 13> SMA 34, SMA 34 > SMA 55 and SMA 20 > SMA 50 on Daily / Weekly time frames
4th Column: Check Current close is above Weekly Pivot and Monthly Pivot. And also verify Close is above 4 Week High.
5th Column: Verify Close is above Daily VWMA. Also Daily VWMA is > Weekly VWMA and Weekly > Monthly.
// Similarly you can add more checks based on different time frames
Feel free to trouble me incase if need help.
Krugman's Dynamic DCAThis script helps you create a DCA (dollar-cost averaging) strategy for your favorite markets and calculates the DCA value for each bar. This can be used to DCA daily, weekly, bi-weekly, etc.
Configuring the indicator:
- DCA Starting Price : the price you want to begin DCA'ing
- DCA Base Amount : the $ amount you will DCA when price is half of your starting price
- DCA Max Amount : the maximum amount you want to DCA regardless of how low price gets
The DCA scaling works exactly like the formula used to calculated the gain needed to recover from a given % loss. In this case it's calculated from the DCA Starting Price . The idea is to increase the DCA amount linearly with the increased upside potential.
Buffett Indicator: Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio [WhaleCrew]Our Implementation of the famous Buffett Indicator a long-term valuation indicator for stocks.
Calculation: Wilshire 5000 Index divided by US GDP (Gross Domestic Product)
FieryTrading Long-Term Bitcoin Investor ToolDear community,
Today I want to present you one of my favorite scripts for long-term Bitcoin trading. I'm publishing this script because I think it will help traders to become more profitable in the long-term. Consequently, this script is targeted at long-term investors only, since it can take years before the price goes from the green area to the red area.
To use this script correctly you will need to use the BTCUSD index from Tradingview. Search "Bitcoin Index" in your symbol search bar, top result. Use daily candles on a logarithmic scale.
This scripts consists of two price bands, green and red. The green band has historically been a great area for the accumulation of BTC, whilst the red area has historically been a great area for exiting BTC. You could say that if the price is in (or below) the green bands BTC is undervalued, with the opposite being true for the red bands.
If you wish to add alerts to this script, simply click on the alert button > condition=Fierytrading BTC Tool. You can add alerts when the price enters the green area (Buy Area Cross) or red area (Sell Area Cross).
This simple script has historically proven to be very efficient at identifying bottoms (accumulation) and tops (distribution). Be aware that the usability of this script is not guaranteed in the future.
TrendTracers Bitcoin Stock to Flow ModelFor the best results, make sure to view this indicator on a bitcoin chart with a very long history (e.g. BNC:BLX)!
This model treats Bitcoin as being comparable to commodities such as gold, silver or platinum. These are known as ‘store of value’ commodities because they retain value over long time frames due to their relative scarcity. It is difficult to significantly increase their supply i.e. the process of searching for gold and then mining it is expensive and takes time. Bitcoin is similar because it is also scarce. In fact, it is the first-ever scarce digital object to exist. There are a limited number of coins in existence and it will take a lot of electricity and computing effort to mine the remaining coins still to be mined, therefore the supply rate is consistently low.
The stock-to-flow model predicts value changes in a straightforward manner. It compares an asset’s current stock to the rate of new production, or how much is produced in a year.
Calculation:
Take bitcoin production in a period, divide it by that period and then multiply by 365 to get the estimated yearly production and then calculate the stock to flow.
yearlyFlow = ((stockChange) / period ) * 365
stockToFlow = (stock - missingBitcoins) / yearlyFlow
Model Value = -1.84ᵉ * stockToFlow³.³⁶ (mathematical model to calculate the model price)
For more information about the calculations followed: stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com
Features:
Works on the Daily, Weekly and Monthly Timeframe.
Allows you to adjust between a 10-day period and a 463-day period.
Has the option to account for missing bitcoins, lets you adjust the amount of missing bitcoins.
The ability to toggle a standard deviation of the Model Value with a multiplier of 1, 2 or 3
Displays a Stock to Flow Deviation Ratio: If the Deviation Ratio is close to 0 it means the price of Bitcoin is close to the Model Value Line(or Stock to Flow Ratio). If the Deviation Ratio is close to 1 or -1, it means the price of bitcoin is near the selected deviation levels.
You can toggle between the Overlay version and the Oscillator version, default is on Oscillator version. If you want to switch: Untick Oscillator mode in the indicator settings, click on the three dots and select "move to existing pane above". Then click on the three dots again and select Pin to scale A. Done!
As a bonus: Now you can toggle a "1-year Realized Price" graph, while it's not officially part of the Stock to Flow Model it does share similar technicals about supply and scarcity. The 1-year Realized Price is the realized market cap divided by total amount of generated coins.
I just noticed that, while the color gradient function is pretty cool, it does not allow for end users to customize their colors after applying this indicator to their chart. Sorry!
Long Term: Cumulative Moving AverageWho to use?
This indicator is for Long Term Investors or for Position trading and not for Day traders.
What time-frame to use?
• Daily, Weekly or Monthly
What is Blue line?
• Blue line is Cumulative Moving Average. It is cumulative sum of closing price.
• It is a trend reversal level.
• It is a strong support level.
• If price is below Blue line better not to take any Long position until it crosses above it.
What are Red lines?
• Red lines are Multiplier levels.
• These are target levels to exit the position.
• It can be breakout or pull back levels.
• The level combination numbers can be fully odd or even numbers.
• For example in certain stocks the working levels will be 1x, 3x, 5x etc., in others it will be even numbers like 2x, 4x, 6x etc.
• In some cases the levels need to be tweaked with custom decimals like 1.1x, 2.1x, 3.1x, 4.1x etc. to align the support & resistance levels.
How to use?
Entry
• Enter when the Price reach closer to the Blue line.
• Enter Long when the Price takes a pullback or breakout at the Red lines.
Exit
• Exit position when the Price reach closer to the Red lines in Long positions.
Indicator Menu
• Works only in higher time-frames like D, W & M.
• Will not work in Lower time-frames less than "D" or the Launch Date shows wrong in Lower time-frames.
Multipliers:
(Read above What are Red lines?)
Launch Date:
• Launch Date: Starting date of stock when it appeared in the exchange. Works only in D, W & M timeframes.
• Years: Total number of years from the Launch Date. Accurate date will be shown in Daily timeframe.
• Candles Count: Total number of candles from the Launch Date in the current timeframe.
Labels:
• First number is last traded price.
• Second number in () is percentage change from last traded price to that level.
Vwap SalvatierraVwap Salvatierra. an indicator that must be accompanied by other volume indicators.
Benefits:
- Long term Vwap.
- Middle Std. deviations, Calculated automatically.
- Previous zones available.
How to use:
when the price is >= stdev+3, look for shorts till came back to vwap
whe the price is <= stdev-3, look for longs till came back to vwap
if the vwap cannot be broken, as resistance, after several attempts, then sell
if the vwap can't be broken, like support, after several tries, then buy.
WhaleCrew AccumulationThis script was built for the BTC weekly chart.
Purpose: Accumulation of longterm (spot) holdings.
Bull Market Support-Band:
Bundle of the 20 EMA & SMA
Often acted as support during previous bullmarkets
Some people like to trade retests/breaks of this band
Accumulation-Band (+ alerts):
Green: Possible Accumulation/DCA Opportunity
Color might change while candle is still open (e.g. Weekly Candle - 19 Jul '21, flipped green -> closed red)
Labels (+ alerts):
Break of the 200 Weekly EMA
Oversold RSI (< 30)
The DD investThe script tells me when to invest in the stock.
Split ur money into 3 piles. Each must be bigger than the previous one.
Buy with the first pile when the chart touches the middle line (SMA200).
Buy with the second pile when the chart touches the bottom line (lowest price of 200 weeks).
Buy with the third pile when the chart goes significantly below the bottom line (lowest price of 200 weeks).
Watch only the W1 chart (!!!).
Circles on the chart indicate places where you should buy (examples).
Consider selling half of the holding when the chart touches the top line (the highest price of 200 weeks).
Hold the rest much longer then you plan to ;)
Moses Long-term Index ETF Investing StrategyMoses is a script designed for long-term Index ETF investors.
Moses Goals.
1. Alerts you when a major crash is starting or is underway (Bear Market Signal)
2. Warn you of price events in the market that may lead to increased volatility and downward price pressure (Shock Event Warning)
3. Clearly inform you when the market is in a bull phase (growing) or bear phase (decreasing) (Bull/Bear Signal)
4. Inform you if the market is showing early signs of recovery from a crash
5. Alert you to catastrophic events, which are extreme one bar price drops (typically occurring before or during a major stock market crash)
Moses Logic.
Moses is the product of years of testing, but the application of the logic is simple.
1. Moses is designed specifically to work on a weekly chart (5 days per bar). Do not use the scripts on daily, monthly, or intraday charts
2. Moses Uses 4 Moving Average Indicators
3. Moses uses the position of price and the moving averages to determine the state of the market (Bull/Bear/Recovery)
4. Moses uses price action to determine shock events and catastrophic event warnings
5. The script is hardcoded to start trading in 1997. Why? So that the script's primary goal of avoiding crashes is tested on 3 major crashes, the Dotcom 2000, the Financial Crisis 2008, and the Corona Crash in 2020.
How Moses Works
Being able to exit the market before or during a large market crash enables you to preserve a portion of your equity from decline. Buying back into the market on a Bull Market or Early Recovery Signal enables you to enter the market at a lower price. This goal is achieved during major crashes.
As with all scripts, there are false signals which may incur a losing trade; you can see in the strategy tester results the % of Winning/Losing Trades.
Strategy Setup In Tradingview
Initial Capital $10,000
Order Size 100% of equity (this is because it is a long-term strategy with only one trade in play – you are either long or not invested, using a smaller position size means you cannot meaningfully compare a Moses strategy to a Buy & Hold Strategy)
Commission is $5 per trade (this is negligible because the strategy only trades at most once per year)
Slippage – 10 ticks
This Script Displays the 5 Main MOSES Signals Directly On Your Chart To Help Your Investing Decision Making
1. Bull Market Signal - Green
2. Bear Market Signal - Red
3. Stock Market Recovery Signal - Amber/Yellow
4. Shock Event Warning - Shock Label on Price
5. Catastrophic Event Warning - Red Catastrophe Label
Includes 5 Moses Scripts
• Moses Signals 2.0 (plots all alerts directly on the price chart)
• Moses Buy on Bull - Sell on Bear (Plots a buy on the first Bull Market Signal - Closes All Positions on a Bear Market Signal)
• Moses Buy on Bull - Sell on Catastrophe (Plots a buy on the first Bull Market Signal - Closes All Positions on a Catastrophic event)
• Moses Buy on Recovery - Sell on Catastrophe (Plots a buy on the first Recovery Signal - Closes All Positions on a Catastrophic Event)
• Buy & Hold Script (Used to compare the effectiveness of the strategies versus a Buy and Hold Strategy)
As the script has 3 Moses Strategies, the idea is that you choose the strategy that best fits the ETF you are trading.
Moses is a long-term investing strategy that has historically outperformed the US and European Major Indices for the last 24 years. There is no guarantee of future performance.
Moses has outperformed the market (buy and hold strategy) from 1997 on the:
Nasdaq 100, S&P500, Russell 3000, Nasdaq Composite, EuroStoxx 50, Italian Milano Borsa, German DAX, Paris CAC40
Moses does not outperform the market on:
Nifty 50, BSE Sensex, ASX 200, Chinese Market
Backtested Performance
Test Timeframe Jan 13 1997 - Sept 21 2021
Duration Years 24.75
Initial Investment $10,000
North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return------------CAGR-------Total %
Nasdaq 100 Buy & Hold----------------------------$176,380-----------12.30%------1664%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$288,554-----------14.55%------2786%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$202,491-----------12.92%------1925%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$229,866-----------13.50%------2199%
North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
S&P 500 Buy & Hold----------------------------$58,122-----------7.37%------481%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$48,544-----------6.59%------385%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe $59,573-----------7.48%------496%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe $64,579-----------7.83%------546%
North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
Russell 3000 Buy & Hold----------------------------$61,363-----------7.61%------514%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$52,957-----------6.97%------430%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$64,027-----------7.79%------540%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$71,565-----------8.28%------616%
North America Strategy-------------------------------$ Return-----------CAGR------Total %
Nasdaq Composite Buy & Hold----------------------------$112,839-----------10.29%------1028%
Buy Bull - Sell Bear------------------$123,308-----------10.68%------1133%
Buy Bull - Sell Catastrophe---------$107,699-----------10.08%------977%
Buy Recovery - Sell Catastrophe---$112,453-----------10.27%------1025%
*CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
From a Declaration of Principles jointly adopted by a Committee of the American Bar Association and a Committee of Publishers
This work is provided to you for informational purposes only and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell a particular security or a solicitation of offers to buy or sell a particular security. The author may make available certain information related to the potential price movement of particular securities. By reading this report or using the training materials, you acknowledge and agree that any reliance upon the content or data available is at your own sole risk. You are strongly advised to use your own judgment, your own research, and question everything. The information is generic in nature and not targeted to individuals or individual circumstances. The author is an independent investor and is not licensed to give formal Stock advice to the individual, run funds of any type, or accept fees for individual stock advice. The Author accepts no responsibility for loss of money for following any of the lessons or systems created. Trading of securities may not be suitable for all users of this information; if in doubt, seek a professional advisor. All use of this work is at your sole risk.
Trend Momentum with Buyers / Sellers PowerHi there!
With this indicator, you can hunt big trends before they start.
This indicator is combined with RSI and Momentum indicators
It can show you the power of trend and which side it wants to go
It can help you to open a position at the first point of a new trend or at the safe and proven point of the trend, also it can help you to close your position before the trend change its direction (it's not recommended to use it to close your positon, but sometimes it can help you to find the ending point of big pumps)
Rules:
* Baseline is ZERO ( 0 ) line
* When gray line crossover red line, it shows us a powerful uptrend
* When the gray line crossunder the red line it shows us a powerful upward trend
Signals:
* Only use Buy signals(Long) when they are above or crossing-up baseline
* Only use Sell signals(Short) when they are under or crossing-down baseline
* If they both (red and gray lines) are too high and they suddenly starting to come back to baseline, it shows we have a range trend, the trend is weak or a reversal trend is coming!!
!! WARNING: DO NOT USE THIS INDICATOR ALONE !!
Suggestions :
-Use 1H, 4H, daily, or Weekly timeframes
-Use ADX and DI or three WMA's
-Use divergence
-You can use it for scalping but you need to change the inputs (not recommended)
If you have any idea about making new indicators(what information do you want from the chart?), comment please, then I can research and make it for all of us! =)
Bitcoin 2-Year MA Multiplier by GodtrixHi guys, I found this tool very useful and accurate, but can't find it on Trading View, so I made one for myself and everyone here ;)
Alert is available too.
Indicator Overview
The 2-Year MA Multiplier is intended to be used as a long term investment tool.
It highlights periods where buying or selling Bitcoin during those times would have produced outsized returns.
To do this, it uses a moving average (MA) line, the 2yr MA, and also a multiplication of that moving average line, 2yr MA x5.
Note: the x5 multiplication is of the price values of the 2yr moving average, not of its time period.
Buying Bitcoin when price drops below the 2yr MA (green line) has historically generated outsized returns. Selling Bitcoin when price goes above the 2yr MA x 5 (red line) has been historically effective for taking profit.
Why This Happens
As Bitcoin is adopted, it moves through market cycles. These are created by periods where market participants are over-excited causing the price to over-extend, and periods where they are overly pessimistic where the price over-contracts. Identifying and understanding these periods can be beneficial to the long term investor.
This tool is a simple and effective way to highlight those periods.
Credit to & Created By
Philip Swift
Date Created
July 2017
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Ravih Pro Trend BreakoutThis is a Trend Breakout Strategy on “DAILY Time-frame”
This Strategy is designed keeping in mind with Medium to Long Term traders. The strategy works only on Daily Time-frame and on Closing Price.
The concept here is to identify assets with potential change in trend. Primary focus is to position for the big move. There are times... trying to catch every trend, many of which can be unprofitable especially in side-way market. However, the primary purpose of this strategy is to catch all the major trend movements, which are much more profitable than minor market losses in all the side-way market.
I’ve simplified it to make it user-friendly.
How to use?
Set it to Daily Time-frame.
Buy, Take Profit 1,2,3 and Exit signals are included on chart based on the current Trend direction. The system shows an Exit signal if the system’s exit conditions are met. It works only on Daily Time-frame and on Closing Price.
Dark Blue Up Triangle denotes Buy at the Closing Price. Entry Price is Closing Price or with + or – 2% tolerance of the Closing Price for the following market day.
Purple Down Triangle denotes Exit to close any remaining position to free up capital.
Little Green Up Triangles denote the Bulls are in Control and Overpowering the Bears and represents minor Buying opportunities with strong probability of continuing up-moves.
Setting Up Alerts
The user has the option to Setup Alerts for all chart signals that is…
For Buy, for Exit, for Take Profit 1 set at 24%, for Take Profit 2 set at 48% and for Take Profit 3 set at 72%
The user also has the option to adjust the Take Profit as per their desire. However, the predetermined Take Profit set for this strategy does work reasonably well.
Remember...
This strategy is only built for stocks. It is Not for Indices neither for any other financial instruments.
No SHORT signals in this strategy.
Momentum Indicator avg short return minus avg long returnAverage daily return over the period 2-12 months ago minus the average daily return over the period 1-5 years ago
=> a higher return 2-12 months ago indicates a higher return in coming months according to research, because of the momentum risk factor premium
=> a higher return 1-5 years ago indicates a lower return in coming months according to research, because of the momentum risk factor premium
Long Term Moving AverageThis scripts plots the long term moving average calculated daily for 4 sets.
The default averages are:
18 day
50 day
100 day
200 day
The settings can be used to flexibly change this and to hide / show labels
Multi Time Frame - Trade SetupsMuti Time Frame - Trade Setups
How does it work ? Price movements over range of period is used to compute the range moving forward.
As the option for wider time periods are selected more candles are selected for calculation
The Trend Line is the supporting factor to this logic and SMA20 is used as the basis of the trend line.
To Indicate the strength of the trend line , RSI is computed over multiple timeframes and then used to colour the trend line to show its strength
Once the Range is identified it can be considered as the Breakout/Breakdown zones or as the Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ)
How to Deploy / Use
As part of the Indicator there are four Choices that the user can opt for
Show Intraday Trades - This works for Intraday Trades - when the resolution is kept to less than 1 hour ( Say 3 , 5 , 10 , 15 Mins)
Show Short Term Trades - This works well when the resolution is kept to 1 Day - Good for Swing Trades spanning over a few days
Show Long Term Trades - This works well when the resolution is kept to 1 Day or Week - Good for Investments
Show Trend Line - Will show the user the Simple Moving Average 20 based on the resolution selected , The Trend Line Is a repainted based on the hybrid RSI Logic
The Trend Line would show in three colours
Green : T he Setup is in Up Trend- Try to take the trade as closer to the band as possible and when it continues to be in green ( and recommended when it would have just crossed from Red/Yellow to Green )
Red : The Setup is in Down Trend - Try to take the trade as closer to the band as possible and when it continues to be in red ( and recommended when it would have just crossed from Green/Yellow to Red )
Yellow : The Setup in sideways Trend ( a new trade isnt recommend in this band
Visual Checks - It is always recommended to enter/exit the trade it it touches crosses over the Trend Line from one side to the other
When closer to the support resistance bands , wait for a confirmation candle to determine if you are getting resistance breakout / support or breakdown
Stop Loss - That should be done by following ones risk appetite , Ideally the open/close of the previous candle should be the stop loss for the buy/sell
but everyone has their own Risk Management Strategies based on the capital deployed.
Usage/Markets : Index Trading / Equities and on proper analysis you may use it for Option Trading also. - Doesnt work that well with Commodities and Currencies
Disclaimer : There could be scenarios when the breakout/breakdown candle is rejected , especially when it is long one
so it is always recommended to have a confirmation candle that open-closes above the breakout candle / open-closes below the breakdown candle
If you like it and find it useful or if you find a defect or bug , Please let us know in the comments .. that would encouraging !! for us to develop it further
Thank you and have a beautiful and Profitable trading session !
How to get access
Please click on the link / email in the signature or send me a private message to get access
Feedback
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