Economic Growth Index (XLY/XLP)Keeping an eye on the macroeconomic environment is an essential part of a successful investing and trading strategy. Piecing together and analysing its complex patterns are important to detect probable changing trends. This may seem complicated, or even better left to experts and gurus, but it’s made a whole lot easier by this indicator, the Economic Growth Index (EGI).
Common sense shows that in an expanding economy, consumers have access to cash and credit in the form of disposable income, and spend it on all sorts of goods, but mainly crap they don’t need (consumer discretionary items). Companies making these goods do well in this phase of the economy, and can charge well for their products.
Conversely, in a contracting economy, disposable income and credit dry up, so demand for consumer discretionary products slows, because people have no choice but to spend what they have on essential goods. Now, companies making staple goods do well, and keep their pricing power.
These dynamics are represented in EGI, which plots the Rate of Change of the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) in relation to the Consumer Staples ETF (XLP). Put simply, green is an expanding phase of the economy, and red shrinking. The signal line is the market, a smoothed RSI of the S&P500. Run this on a Daily timeframe or higher. Check it occasionally to see where the smart money is heading.
