MVRV-Z adjusted EN version (by ilyaevp95)Descriptions:
The MVRV Z-Score indicator is a powerful tool designed by original authors Murad Mahmudov and David Puell for BTC to help traders make informed decisions about their cryptocurrency investments. It is based on the MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) metric, which measures the relationship between the market capitalization and the realized capitalization of a cryptocurrency. The indicator provides signals for accumulating or selling an asset based on deviations in market capitalization from realized capitalization.
How it works:
Market Capitalization : This is the total value of coins that have been issued at a given point in time. Market capitalization is calculated by multiplying the current price of the asset by the number of coins that have been issued.
Realized Capitalization (Realized Price) : This is the amount of money that has been spent on purchasing a particular asset. In the context of cryptocurrencies, it represents the sum of all transaction values for a specific blockchain. Realized capitalization can be calculated using historical data on transaction prices.
MVRV Metric : The MVRV metric compares market capitalization with realized capitalization, providing a measure of how overvalued or undervalued a cryptocurrency is relative to its historical transaction data. A high MVRV value indicates that the market is overvaluing the asset, while a low MVRV suggests undervaluation.
Z-Score Calculation : The Z-score is a statistical measure that normalizes the deviation of market capitalization from its mean value (realized capitalization) to a standard deviation. This makes it possible to compare assets that have different values and time periods, as it takes into account the volatility of the market.
Note: For accurate Z-score calculation, you need to use the indicator on a chart with a mostly complete historical data set for a specific cryptocurrency.
Signals : Based on the Z-score, the indicator generates signals for accumulation or sale. If the Z-score falls below a certain threshold (negative), it may indicate an opportunity to accumulate the asset. Conversely, if the Z-score rises above a positive threshold, it could suggest a potential sell signal.
The indicator uses a color-coded system to provide traders with visual cues:
Green background indicates a signal to accumulate.
Orange (Red) background indicates a signal to sell.
Deviations exceeding the specified thresholds by 1 and 2 Z (positive direction), 0.5 and 1 Z (negative direction) are highlighted in a brighter color, indicating more extreme deviations.
Note: The signals provided by this indicator should not be considered financial advice. Traders should conduct their own research (DYOR) before making any investment decisions.
Parameters: The indicator provides several parameters for customization:
Blockchain : The blockchain for which the analysis is performed. This allows the user to select the specific blockchain they are interested in analyzing. The default value is BTC.
Z threshold for positive deviations : This parameter sets the threshold above which the deviation will be considered positive. A higher value will result in fewer signals, while a lower value may generate more false signals. The default value is 3.0.
Z threshold for negative deviations : Similar to the previous parameter, this sets the threshold below which the deviation will be considered negative. The default value is 0.
Market Capitalization : There are two types of market capitalization available: Standard and Free float coin capitalization. Free float is calculated by multiplying its current price by the total number of units in free circulation - the number that are not locked in any contracts or other forms of restriction. For DASH, ZEC, BAT and ALGO available only Free float capitalization. The default value is "Standard"
Negative Deviation Filter Mode : When enabled, if the deviation has been positive for a certain number of previous weeks (the default value is 40 weeks), the indicator will not generate a signal to accumulate. This helps to avoid false signals during the start of a bearish market. This may be helpful for volatile coins, whose price can drastically fall below the realized price after the end of a bull market. The default setting is "disabled".
Display Options:
MVRV plot : Displays the MVRV metric for the selected blockchain.
Z-Score plot : Shows the Z-score calculated by the indicator.
Realized Price plot : Provides a visual representation of the realized price of the cryptocurrency on main chart.
S ignal Display : Choose whether to display signals on the main chart or in a separate panel.
Historical mode : Choose whether to show signals for all historical data on the chart or for a certain number of periods. The default setting is "disabled".
Onchain
Crypto Realized Profits/Losses Extremes [AlgoAlpha]🌟🚀 Introducing the Crypto Realized Profits/Losses Extremes Indicator by AlgoAlpha 🚀🌟
Unlock the potential of cryptocurrency markets with our cutting-edge On-Chain Pine Script™ indicator, designed to highlight extreme realized profit and loss zones! 🎯📈
Key Features:
✨ Realized Profits/Losses Calculation: Uses real-time data from the blockchain to monitor profit and loss realization events.
📊 Multi-Crypto Compatibility: The Indicator is compatible on other Crypto tickers besides Bitcoin.
⚙️ Customizable Sensitivity: Adjust the look-back period, normalization period, and deviation thresholds to tailor the indicator to your trading style.
🎨 Visual Enhancements: Choose from a variety of colors for up and down trends, and toggle extreme profit/loss overlay for easy viewing.
🔔 Integrated Alerts: Set up alerts for high and extreme profit or loss conditions, helping you stay ahead of significant market movements.
🔍 How to Use:
🛠 Add the Indicator: Add the indicator to favorites. Customize settings like period lengths and deviation thresholds according to your needs.
📊 Market Analysis: Monitor the main oscillator and the bands to understand current profit and loss extremes in the market. When the oscillator is at the upper band, this means that the market is doing really well and traders/investors will be likely to take profit and cause a reversal. The opposite is true when the oscillator reaches the lower band. The main oscillator can also be used for trend analysis.
🔔 Set Alerts: Configure alerts to notify you when the market enters a zone of high profit or loss, or during trend changes, enabling timely decisions without constant monitoring.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates a normalized area under the RSI curve applied on on-chain data regarding the number of wallets in profit. It employs a custom "src" variable that aggregates data from the blockchain about profit and loss addresses, adapting to intraday or longer timeframes as needed. The main oscillator plots this normalized area, while the upper and lower bands are plotted based on a deviation metric to identify extreme conditions. Colored fills between these bands visually denote these zones. For interaction, the indicator plots bubbles for extreme profits or losses and provides optional bar coloring to reflect the current market trend.
🚀💹 Enjoy a comprehensive, customizable, and visually engaging tool that helps you stay ahead in the fast-paced crypto market!
Blockunity Address Synthesis (BAS)Track the address status of the various cryptoassets and their evolution.
The Idea
The goal is to provide a simple tool for visualizing the evolution of different types of crypto addresses.
How to Use
This tool is to be used as fundamental information. It is not intended for investment or trading purposes.
Elements
Active Addresses
Active Addresses represent the subset of total addresses that made one or more on-chain transaction on a given day.
New Addresses
New Addresses refer to addresses that receive their first deposit in the selected crypto-asset.
Zero Balance Addresses
Zero Balance Addresses are addresses that transferred out (potentially sold) all of their holdings for the selected crypto-asset.
Total Addresses
Total Addresses refer to the overall count of unique addresses that have been created on a blockchain network.
Settings
In the settings, you can :
Adjust line smoothing (in terms of number of days).
Change the lookback period used to calculate the different variations.
Display or not the different address types (for better visualization, Total Addresses should be shown alone).
Show or hide labels and configure their offset.
Lastly, you can modify all table parameters.
MVRV Z-Score [AlgoAlpha]Introducing the ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha, a dynamic and sophisticated tool designed for traders seeking to gain an edge in INDEX:BTCUSD analysis. This script employs advanced statistical techniques on Bitcoin On-Chain data to offer a deeper understanding of market conditions, focusing on valuation extremes and momentum trends. Let's explore the features and functionalities that make this tool a valuable addition to your trading arsenal.
Key Features:
🔶 Adjustable Parameters: Customize the Z score lookback length, moving average lookback length, and choose from six moving average types, tailoring the analysis to your trading style.
🔶 Heiken Ashi Compatibility: Incorporate Heiken Ashi plots to visualize market trends, adding a layer of clarity to your technical analysis.
🔶 Divergence Alerts: Detect significant bullish and bearish divergences, allowing for timely identification of potential market reversals.
🔶 Configurable Alerts: Set alerts for overbought, oversold, and divergence conditions, ensuring you never miss an opportunity.
How to Use:
1. ➡️ Parameter Selection: Start by configuring the Z-Score and moving average settings according to your analysis needs. This includes selecting the lookback period and the type of moving average.
2. ➡️ Visualization Options: Choose to enable Heiken Ashi plots for an alternative view of the Z-Score, which can help in identifying trend directions more clearly.
3. ➡️ Monitor for Signals: Keep an eye out for divergence signals and overbought/oversold conditions as potential indicators for entering or exiting trades.
4. ➡️ Alert Setup: Configure alerts based on your selected parameters to receive notifications for important market movements and conditions.
How It Works:
The core of this tool is the Z-Score calculation, which assesses the standard deviation of the current market value from its mean, highlighting overvalued or undervalued market conditions. Here's a brief overview of the script's operational mechanics:
1. 📊 Calculating the Z-Score: The script first calculates the mean over a user-defined lookback period of the MVRV ratio, then it computes the Z-Score to identify deviations from the average.
meanValue = ta.sma(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
zScoreValue = (marketValue - meanValue) / ta.stdev(marketValue, zScoreLookback)
2. 📈 Applying a Moving Average: To smooth the Z-Score data and make trends more discernible, a moving average is applied. Users can choose from several types, such as SMA, EMA, or HMA, based on their preference.
3. 🔄 Heiken Ashi Visualization: For those opting for a more intuitive trend analysis, Heiken Ashi plots can be enabled, transforming the Z-Score data into candlestick charts that simplify trend identification.
4. 🔍 Identifying Divergences: The script is equipped to spot divergences between the market price action and the Z-Score, signaling potential bullish or bearish market reversals.
oscHigherLow = haClose > ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, haClose , 1) and isInRange(findPivotLow )
priceLowerLow = low < ta.valuewhen(findPivotLow, low , 1)
bullishCondition = enablePlotBullish and priceLowerLow and oscHigherLow and findPivotLow
5. 🚨 Configurable Alerts: Lastly, the script allows for the setting of customizable alerts based on the Z-Score, moving averages, and identified divergences, enabling traders to react promptly to market changes.
The ∑ MVRV Z-Score by AlgoAlpha is an essential tool for traders looking to analyze and interpret market dynamics through a quantitatively rigorous lens. Whether you're focused on identifying market extremes or tracking trend momentum, this script offers the insights needed to support informed trading decisions. 🌟📊💡
BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) [AlgoAlpha]Description:
🚨The BTC Supply in Profits and Losses (BTCSPL) indicator, developed by AlgoAlpha, offers traders insights into the distribution of INDEX:BTCUSD addresses between profits and losses based on INDEX:BTCUSD on-chain data.
Features:
🔶Alpha Decay Adjustment: The indicator provides the option to adjust the data against Alpha Decay, this compensates for the reduction in clarity of the signal over time.
🔶Rolling Change Display: The indicator enables the display of the rolling change in the distribution of Bitcoin addresses between profits and losses, aiding in identifying shifts in market sentiment.
🔶BTCSPL Value Score: The indicator optionally displays a value score ranging from -1 to 1, traders can use this to carry out strategic dollar cost averaging and reverse dollar cost averaging based on the implied value of bitcoin.
🔶Reversal Signals: The indicator gives long-term reversal signals denoted as "▲" and "▼" for the price of bitcoin based on oversold and overbought conditions of the BTCSPL.
🔶Moving Average Visualization: Traders can choose to display a moving average line, allowing for better trend identification.
How to Use ☝️ (summary):
Alpha Decay Adjustment: Toggle this option to enable or disable Alpha Decay adjustment for a normalized representation of the data.
Moving Average: Toggle this option to show or hide the moving average line, helping traders identify trends.
Short-Term Trend: Enable this option to display the short-term trend based on the Aroon indicator.
Rolling Change: Choose this option to visualize the rolling change in the distribution between profits and losses.
BTCSPL Value Score: Activate this option to show the BTCSPL value score, ranging from -1 to 1, 1 implies that bitcoin is extremely cheap(buy) and -1 implies bitcoin is extremely expensive(sell).
Reversal Signals: Gives binary buy and sell signals for the long term
Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (LGS2F) [AlgoAlpha]Description:
The "∂ Limited Growth Stock-to-Flow (LG-S2F)" indicator, developed by AlgoAlpha, is a technical analysis tool designed to analyze the price of Bitcoin (BTC) based on the Stock-to-Flow model. The indicator calculates the expected price range of BTC by incorporating variables such as BTC supply, block height, and model parameters. It also includes error bands to indicate potential overbought and oversold conditions.
How it Works:
The LG-S2F indicator utilizes the Stock-to-Flow model, which measures the scarcity of an asset by comparing its circulating supply (stock) to its newly produced supply (flow). In this script, the BTC supply and block height data are obtained to calculate the price using the model formula. The formula includes coefficients (a, b, c) and exponentiation functions to derive the expected price.
The script incorporates error bands based on uncertainty values derived from the standard errors of the model parameters. These error bands indicate the potential range of variation in the expected price, accounting for uncertainties in the model's parameters. The upper and lower error bands visualize potential overbought and oversold conditions, respectively.
Usage:
Traders can utilize the LG-S2F indicator to gain insights into the potential price movements of Bitcoin. The indicator's main line represents the expected price, while the error bands highlight the potential range of variation. Traders may consider taking long positions when the price is near or below the lower error band and short positions when the price is close to or above the upper error band.
It's important to note that the LG-S2F indicator is specifically designed for Bitcoin and relies on the Stock-to-Flow model. Users should exercise caution and consider additional analysis and factors before making trading decisions solely based on this indicator.
Originality:
The LG-S2F indicator, developed by QuantMario and AlgoAlpha, is an original implementation that combines the Stock-to-Flow model with error bands to provide a comprehensive view of BTC's potential price range. While the concept of Stock-to-Flow analysis exists, the specific calculations, incorporation of error bands, and customization options in this script are unique to QuantMario's methodology. The script is released under Mozilla Public License 2.0, allowing users to utilize and modify it while adhering to the license terms.
Bitcoin Miner Extreme SellingThis script is for identifying extreme selling. Judging by the chart, Bitcoin miners often (not always) sell hard for two reasons: to take profit into parabolic price rises, or to stay solvent when the price is very low.
Extreme selling thus often coincides with long-term tops and bottoms in Bitcoin price. This can be a useful EXTRA data point when trying to time long-term Bitcoin spot or crypto equity investment (NOT advice, you remain responsible, etc). The difference between selling measured in BTC and in USD gives a reasonable idea of whether miners are selling to make a profit or to stay solvent.
CREDITS
The idea for using the ratio of miner outflows to reserves comes from the "Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure" script by the pioneering capriole_charles.
The two request.security calls are identical. Another similarity is that you have to sum the outflows to make it make sense. But it doesn't make much difference, it turns out from testing, to use an average of the reserves, so I didn't. All other code is different.
The script from capriole_charles uses Bollinger bands to highlight periods when sell pressure is high, uses a rolling 30-day sum, and only uses the BTC metrics.
My script uses a configurable 2-6 week rolling sum (there's nothing magical about one month), uses different calculations, and uses BTC, USD, and composite metrics.
INPUTS
Rolling Time Basis : Determines how much data is rolled up. At the lowest level, daily data is too volatile. If you choose, e.g., 1 week, then the indicator displays the relative selling on a weekly basis. Longer time periods, obviously, are smoother but delayed, while shorter time periods are more reactive. There is no "real" time period, only an explicit interpretation.
Show Data > Outflows : Displays the relative selling data, along with a long-term moving average. You might use this option if you want to compare the "real" heights of peaks across history.
Show Data > Delta (the default): Only the difference between the relative selling and the long-term moving average is displayed, along with an average of *that*. This is more signal and less noise.
Base Currency : Configure whether the calculations use BTC or USD as the metric. This setting doesn't use the BTC price at all; it switches the data requested from INTOTHEBLOCK.
If you choose Composite (the default), the script combines BTC and USD together in a relative way (you can't simply add them, as USD is a much bigger absolute value).
In Composite mode, the peaks are coloured red if BTC selling is higher than USD, which usually indicates forced selling, and green if USD is higher, which usually indicates profit-taking. This categorisation is not perfectly accurate but it is interesting insomuch as it is derived from block data and not Bitcoin price.
In BTC or USD mode, a gradient is used to give a rough visual idea of how far from the average the current value is, and to make it look pretty.
USAGE NOTES
Because of the long-term moving averages, the length of the chart does make a difference. I recommend running the script on the longest Bitcoin chart, ticker BLX.
To use it to compare selling with pivots in crypto equities, use a split chart: one BLX with the indicator applied, and one with the equity of your choice. Sync Interval, Crosshair, Time, and Date Range, but not Symbol.
Bitcoin Miner Sell PressureBitcoin miners are in pain and now (November 2022) selling more than they have in almost 5 years!
Introducing: Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure.
A free, open-source indicator which tracks on-chain data to highlight when Bitcoin miners are selling more of their reserves than usual.
The indicator tracks the ratio of on-chain miner Bitcoin outflows to miner Bitcoin reserves.
- Higher = more selling than usual
- Lower = less selling than usual
- Red = extraordinary sell pressure
Today , it's red.
What can we see now ?
Miners are not great at treasury management. They tend to sell most when they are losing money (like today). But there have been times when they sold well into high profit, such as into the 2017 $20K top and in early 2021 when Bitcoin breached $40K.
Bitcoin Miner Sell Pressure identifies industry stress, excess and miner capitulation.
Unsurprisingly, there is a high correlation with Bitcoin Production Cost; giving strong confluence to both.
In some instances, BMSP spots capitulation before Hash Ribbons. Such as today!
Big Whale Purchases and SalesBig Whale Purchases and Sales - plots big whale transactions on your chart!
People that hold more than 1% of a crypto currencies circulating supply are considered whales and have a huge influence on price, not just because they can move the market with their huge transactions, but also because other traders often track their wallets and follow their example. Taking a look at whale holdings, one can see why whale worship is so common in crypto: While Bitcoin has a relatively low whale concentration, many of the Top 100 Cryptocurrencies have whales control 60% or more of their circulating supply.
Integrating IntoTheBlock data, this script plots the transactions of these whales and, in strategy mode, copy trades them.
Features:
Strategy Mode: Switches the script between an indicator and a strategy.
Standard Deviations: The number of Standard Deviations that a transaction needs to surpass to be considered worth plotting. Setting this to 0 will show all whale transactions, higher settings will only show the biggest transactions.
Blockchain: The Chain on which Whale activity is tracked.
Supply Weighted Moving Average: OnchinUse this Onchain Channel in Weekly Timeframe - on BTCUSD BUTSTAMP Chart:
This Moving average channel is weighted based on BTC's new Supply:
I believe the slope of the Bitcoin trend line is correlated to the new supply and the issue of Halving.
The chart below shows this:
In fact, after each Halving, the supply is halved. Halving the supply increases the demand-for-supply ratio and increases the price. But the uptrend slope also halves after each halving.
Therefore, the slope of the bitcoin trend is correlated with the new supply rate. This is the logic of this new metric.
Accordingly, the moving average is weighted based on the new supply. This new channel can identify where bitcoin is too cheap or too expensive in the historical chart. It has also marked support/resistance Supply Weighted Moving Average.
BTC New Supply: OnchainThis Onchain Metric shows the sum of newly issued coins.
This metric is very useful for finding new bull run cycles in the market. The new bull run is accompanied by a significant drop in the new supply.
BTC Supply weighted channel: OnchainUse this oscillator in the weekly time frame and then draw the above linear channel
The premise of this idea is that the trend slope of the bitcoin price correlates with the bitcoin supply chart, which shows the total amount of bitcoin ever created/issued.
Therefore, Bitcoin price is weighted based on Bitcoin supply.
As a result, the above channel has been created, which is a linear channel, and it seems that it can be an oscillator to determine the bitcoin trend, as well as the tops and bottoms of the market.
Bitcoin seems to respect the bottom and top lines of this channel as well as its midline
BTC Leading SOPR: OnchainUse This indicator in Weekly Timeframe:
This Onchain Metric is based on SOPR Moving Average.
This metric is very efficient for finding the tops and bottoms of the market as well as the ascending or descending biases in the market.
You can use it alongside RSI to filter out incorrect rsi signals
overhigh areas signal a top, overlow areas signal a low, zero line cross-up indicates an uptrend bias and its cross-down indicates a downtrend bias in the market
BTC SOPR Momentum: OnchainThis Onchin metric is based on SOPR data
Use this metric on daily and weekly timeframes:
SOPR:
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply: price sold / price paid. Renato Shirakashi created this metric. When SOPR > 1, it means that the owners of the spent outputs are in profit at the time of the transaction; otherwise, they are at a loss. You can find "SOPR" in tradingview indicators
BTC SOPR Momentum: Onchain
This metric is based on SOPR Momentum. I made some changes to it so that its momentum can be checked.
Interpretation:
If the indicator is above the gray level of resistance/support, bitcoin has an uptrend and Bullish bias
If the indicator is below the resistance/ support level, bitcoin has a downtrend and Bearish Bias
Crossup the gray level is a long signal
Cross-down the gray level is a shorts signal
Entering and exit of the indicator to the overhigh area means creating a top
Entering and leaving the indicator to the overflow area means creating a bottom
V/T Ratio: Onchain BTC MetricThis is a New Onchain metric that is designed for bitcoin by myself Mjshahsavar (Ghoddusifar), and it is published for the first time in this trading view in this post.
I think this metric has a very high capability to determine the ATH and bottom of the market. This metric can solve a problem that channels are unable to solve. this could be the equivalent of what is known in the stock market as P/E
Calculations:
V/T RATIO = MA (7) of Log ((THE TOTAL VOLUME OF BITCOIN TRANSFERRED ONCHAIN IN USD)/(THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF TRANSACTIONS))
INTERPRETATION:
What is the long-term price channel of Bitcoin? Have you ever thought that maybe drawing a price channel is not right and maybe we should look for something else?
Channel drawing for the price is a subjective and interpretive subject. Look at the charts below, they are all correct in terms of drawing, but no one can say which one will happen. There is no certainty because drawing them is objective.
But who can say which one will definitely work?
We need something more objective. I think V/T Ratio does that.
Just draw the channel. There is only one channel for it. And it has worked historically well to this day.
Compare the drawn channel with the price chart. It works right. When the metric reaches the top line of the channel, it indicates the new ATH and the end of the cycle.
When it reaches the bottom line of the channel, it indicates that the price has reached the bottom.
A Market Cycle:
According to this metric, the bitcoin cycle has 5 stages:
1- Bottom Price: which V/T Ratio touches the bottom line of the channel: In this case, we expect the price to reach the bottom.
2- Semi-high price: that the metric reaches the middle line of the channel: In this case, Bitcoin creates a local top in the MID-Term and Long-Term timeframes
3- Semi-low price: which has a metric return to the lower part of the channel (but the price can still increase)
4- ATH: that Bitcoin reaches its highest historical price
5- It starts after the ATH until the metric reaches the bottom part of the channel again.
NVT Ratio: OnchainNVT Ratio
Defined as the ratio of market capitalization divided by transacted volume (in USD).
Network Value to Transactions Ratio (NVT Ratio) is defined as the ratio of market capitalization divided by transacted volume in the specified window.
History
NVT first made an appearance as a tweet on Woo Bull account in Feb 2017. In that tweet he promised an explanatory article which came much later in Oct 2017, first debuting on Forbes.
In Feb 2018, Dimitry Kalichkin published his work to improve NVT for use as a more responsive indicator, hence Kalichkin NVT Signal. In the same month, Woo Bull applied some trader techniques to NVT Signal and published an article summarising how to use it within a trading environment.
Interpretation:
NVT Ratio (Network Value to Transactions Ratio) is similar to the PE Ratio used in equity markets.
this indicator measures whether the blockchain network is overvalued or not.
When Bitcoin`s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble.
High: Overvalued Network worth - Bearish
Marketcap is too much valued compared to the low ability to transact coins in terms of volume
Low : Undervalued Network worth - Bullish
Marketcap is undervalued compared to the high ability to transact coins in terms of volume
Bitcoin OnChain & Other MetricsHi all,
In these troubled times, going back to fundamentals can sometimes be a good idea 😊
I put this one up using data retrieved from “Nasdaq Data Link” and their “Blockchain.com” database.
Here is a good place to analyses some Bitcoin data “outside” its price action with 25 different data sets.
Just go to the settings menu and display the ones you are interested in.
If you want me to add more metrics, feel free to DM or comment below!
Hope you enjoy 😉
NVM Ratio: OnchainNetwork Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM Ratio) is defined as the ratio of the log of market capitalization divided by the log of the square of daily active addresses.
This oscillator evaluates bitcoin price according to the Metcalfe Ratio to show whether the current value of Bitcoin is higher or lower than the real price
in this oscillator, High values indicate the overvalued price, and low values indicate undervalued price.
BTC Active1Y holders: OnchainUse this Indicator in The Weekly timeframe
This indicator is based on "Percent of Supply Last Active 1+ Years Ago".
This is so important indicator that shows " The percent of circulating supply that has not moved in at least 1 year."
It can show the situation of the holders who have been holding their coins for more than a year. When this indicator starts to decline, it means that the price has risen so much that the holders are selling their coins. When this indicator starts to increase, it means that the number of coins held has been increasing for more than a year. This is because the price is too low for investors.
This indicator can be used to indicate accumulation and distribution areas. When the indicator enters the overlow area (red) it means that the distribution is happening
When the indicator enters the overhigh range (blue), it means that accumulation is taking place by the holders
BTC HASHRATE DROP: OnchainWhy is the drop of hashrate important?
Drop of hashrate usually occurs because some miners in the mining network stop for working. There are several possible reasons for this. Such as new anti-mining regulations in some countries or a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin, which makes mining no longer affordable for some miners. So they turn off their devices
This reduces the supply of bitcoin in the market and according to the law of supply and demand can eventually lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin.
This oscillator is designed to detect hashrate drop. for this, we use the data of glassnode . Maroon color indicates decrease in hashrate and Red color indicates excessive hash rate drop. As can be seen on the chart, usually after this drop, we see an increase in the price of bitcoin
BTC Composite Man V.1Wyckoff's theory t is one of the most influential theories of market expression, and the most important components of which are lateral movement areas and trends. This theory turns the graph into something like Dots and lines (stations and paths).
After getting acquainted with Wyckoff's theory, I read several books on the subject, hoping that they could help me identify this area of lateral movement, the area of accumulation, or distribution. But there was a fundamental drawback. It is challenging to diagnose this issue. The rules discussed in these books are highly interpretive and subjective, and two different individual traders may come to exactly opposite conclusions based on their interpretation.
But as I became more familiar with the onchain analysis, an idea came to my mind that might be useful for more objectively recognizing charts based on Wyckoff's theory.
Composite Man: Wyckoff proposed a theory to help understand stock price movements. this is the “Composite Man” theory. (The same concept of whales or strong hands.)
he said: “…all the fluctuations in the market and all the various stocks should be studied as if they were the result of one man’s operations. Let us call him the Composite Man, who, in theory, sits behind the scenes and manipulates the stocks to your disadvantage if you do not understand the game as he plays it; and to your great profit if you do understand it.” (The Richard D. Wyckoff Course in Stock Market Science and Technique, section 9, p. 1-2)
Composite Man is a hypothetical man who has so much money and stocks that when he wants he can gradually increase the price by buying stocks and creating demand, and when the price goes high enough he sells his stock and lower the price. The composite man is the main player in the market. Wyckoff says that if you want to make a good profit from the market, figure out what a composite man game is.
Having a way of showing us where the Composite Man is in the market, can help us understand future trends
Who are the strong hands in the cryptocurrency market? (I use the strong hand word here instead of the composite man)
Some buy or sell more per capita than other market participants (retailers).
To understand this in the bitcoin market, I have used 3 charts and concepts:
1- Sending Addresses: The number of coins addresses making inflow transactions to the exchange.
Indicates the number of sellers' wallets (number of sellers)
2- buyers Addresses: The number of coins addresses making outflow transactions from the exchange.
Indicates the number of buyers' wallets (number of buyers)
3- Pay attention to this issue: the volume of transactions shows both the volume of sales and the buy ( Volume of buy and sale is equal in the market)
The Composite Man indicator is created by dividing the Receiving Addresses of bitcoin by the Sending Addresses. After dividing these addresses, the moving average of Alma was calculated for them and compared with the moving average of 100 days.
Considering the above 3 issues, it can be concluded:
- If the number of Receiving Addresses is higher than the Sending Addresses (the number of people who bought compared to the number of those who sold), it indicates that more people bought and fewer people sold (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) So the sellers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the composite man is on the sales side.
- If the number of Sending Addresses is higher than the Receiving Addresses (number of people who have sold more than the number of people who have bought), it indicates that more people have been sellers and fewer people have been buyers (given that the volume of sales and buys are the same) so the buyers were stronger hands. In such a situation, the Composite man is on the buying side.
Accordingly, if the swing line is above the 100-day moving average line, it indicates that stronger addresses are being sold and retailers are buying, and vice versa.
BTC Transaction/On-Chain Volume (Basic)Description:
Whale: Whale utilizing discounted prices (increasing on-chain volume & decreasing price)
Recovering: Positive momentum in price after potential whale activity
Cycle Volume Support: The transaction volume support during a cycle
What’s the best time to invest?
After institutions make up their mind at low price levels.
How’s on-chain volume related to whales or institutional money?
On-chain volume is contributed not only by using BTC as payment methods, but more importantly by large custodians using the BTC chain to settle internal whale trades. When OTC volume is estimated 2-3 times of exchange volume, and when total on-chain volume is only a small fraction of the exchange volume, the OTC settlement plays a big factor in moving the on-chain volume around.
Why does the price drop further after spotting whale money?
Does new money equal higher true value? Yes.
Does new money equal higher price? No.
Whales could not only ladder in when they see the price on discount, but also push the price further down to accumulate at better price levels. However, either route chosen, it’s most likely for the price to rise to a higher level compared to the level when the whales enter. Whales are here to make money after all.
Bitcoin Difficulty Model [aamonkey]This is a model to calculate Bitcoin price based on Difficulty.
How to calculate it:
BDM = (difficulty^0.51) * 0.002
For the difficulty, the daily average is used.
