Madhan_HMT_Ultimate_StrategyThis indicator is a trend-following strategy designed to identify buy and sell signals based on price action relative to dynamic channels and smoothing mechanisms. It uses two separate sets of parameters that adjust to market conditions, with each set of parameters acting as an independent trend filter. The indicator creates arrows on the chart to signal potential trade entries, with these arrows appearing when the price crosses certain thresholds established by the indicator's internal calculation.
The strategy can be customized with various parameters, including:
Stop loss and take profit levels based on multiple options: ATR (Average True Range), fixed points, or percentage-based values.
Trading mode options that allow the user to choose whether the strategy trades both long and short positions, or restricts trades to only one direction (long or short).
The indicator visually represents the entry levels, stop loss, and take profit levels, with backgrounds filling to highlight potential risk and reward areas. By adjusting the parameters, traders can tailor the indicator to suit different market conditions and their risk tolerance.
Indicators and strategies
SMC StrategyThis Pine Script strategy is based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), designed for TradingView. Here's a brief summary of what the script does:
1. Swing High and Low Calculation: It identifies recent swing highs and lows, which are used to define key zones.
2. Equilibrium, Premium, and Discount Zones:
- Equilibrium is the midpoint between the swing high and low.
- Premium Zone is above the equilibrium, indicating a potential resistance area (sell zone).
- Discount Zone is below the equilibrium, indicating a potential support area (buy zone).
3. Simple Moving Average (SMA): It uses a 50-period SMA to determine the trend direction. If the price is above the SMA, the trend is bullish; if it's below, the trend is bearish.
4. Buy and Sell Signals:
- Buy Signal: Generated when the price is in the discount zone and above the equilibrium, with the price also above the SMA.
- Sell Signal: Triggered when the price is in the premium zone and below the equilibrium, with the price also below the SMA.
5. Order Blocks: It detects basic order blocks by identifying the highest high and lowest low within the last 20 bars. These levels help confirm the buy and sell signals.
6. Liquidity Zones: It marks the swing high and low as potential liquidity zones, indicating where price may reverse due to institutional players' activity.
The strategy then executes trades based on these signals, plotting buy and sell markers on the chart and showing the key levels (zones) and trend direction.
FTMO Rules MonitorFTMO Rules Monitor: Stay on Track with Your FTMO Challenge Goals
TLDR; You can test with this template whether your strategy for one asset would pass the FTMO challenges step 1 then step 2, then with real money conditions.
Passing a prop firm challenge is ... challenging.
I believe a toolkit allowing to test in minutes whether a strategy would have passed a prop firm challenge in the past could be very powerful.
The FTMO Rules Monitor is designed to help you stay within FTMO’s strict risk management guidelines directly on your chart. Whether you’re aiming for the $10,000 or the $200,000 account challenge, this tool provides real-time tracking of your performance against FTMO’s rules to ensure you don’t accidentally breach any limits.
NOTES
The connected indicator for this post doesn't matter.
It's just a dummy double supertrends (see below)
The strategy results for this script post does not matter as I'm posting a FTMO rules template on which you can connect any indicator/strategy.
//@version=5
indicator("Supertrends", overlay=true)
// Supertrend 1 Parameters
var string ST1 = "Supertrend 1 Settings"
st1_atrPeriod = input.int(10, "ATR Period", minval=1, maxval=50, group=ST1)
st1_factor = input.float(2, "Factor", minval=0.5, maxval=10, step=0.5, group=ST1)
// Supertrend 2 Parameters
var string ST2 = "Supertrend 2 Settings"
st2_atrPeriod = input.int(14, "ATR Period", minval=1, maxval=50, group=ST2)
st2_factor = input.float(3, "Factor", minval=0.5, maxval=10, step=0.5, group=ST2)
// Calculate Supertrends
= ta.supertrend(st1_factor, st1_atrPeriod)
= ta.supertrend(st2_factor, st2_atrPeriod)
// Entry conditions
longCondition = direction1 == -1 and direction2 == -1 and direction1 == 1
shortCondition = direction1 == 1 and direction2 == 1 and direction1 == -1
// Optional: Plot Supertrends
plot(supertrend1, "Supertrend 1", color = direction1 == -1 ? color.green : color.red, linewidth=3)
plot(supertrend2, "Supertrend 2", color = direction2 == -1 ? color.lime : color.maroon, linewidth=3)
plotshape(series=longCondition, location=location.belowbar, color=color.green, style=shape.triangleup, title="Long")
plotshape(series=shortCondition, location=location.abovebar, color=color.red, style=shape.triangledown, title="Short")
signal = longCondition ? 1 : shortCondition ? -1 : na
plot(signal, "Signal", display = display.data_window)
To connect your indicator to this FTMO rules monitor template, please update it as follow
Create a signal variable to store 1 for the long/buy signal or -1 for the short/sell signal
Plot it in the display.data_window panel so that it doesn't clutter your chart
signal = longCondition ? 1 : shortCondition ? -1 : na
plot(signal, "Signal", display = display.data_window)
In the FTMO Rules Monitor template, I'm capturing this external signal with this input.source variable
entry_connector = input.source(close, "Entry Connector", group="Entry Connector")
longCondition = entry_connector == 1
shortCondition = entry_connector == -1
🔶 USAGE
This indicator displays essential FTMO Challenge rules and tracks your progress toward meeting each one. Here’s what’s monitored:
Max Daily Loss
• 10k Account: $500
• 25k Account: $1,250
• 50k Account: $2,500
• 100k Account: $5,000
• 200k Account: $10,000
Max Total Loss
• 10k Account: $1,000
• 25k Account: $2,500
• 50k Account: $5,000
• 100k Account: $10,000
• 200k Account: $20,000
Profit Target
• 10k Account: $1,000
• 25k Account: $2,500
• 50k Account: $5,000
• 100k Account: $10,000
• 200k Account: $20,000
Minimum Trading Days: 4 consecutive days for all account sizes
🔹 Key Features
1. Real-Time Compliance Check
The FTMO Rules Monitor keeps track of your daily and total losses, profit targets, and trading days. Each metric updates in real-time, giving you peace of mind that you’re within FTMO’s rules.
2. Color-Coded Visual Feedback
Each rule’s status is shown clearly with a ✓ for compliance or ✗ if the limit is breached. When a rule is broken, the indicator highlights it in red, so there’s no confusion.
3. Completion Notification
Once all FTMO requirements are met, the indicator closes all open positions and displays a celebratory message on your chart, letting you know you’ve successfully completed the challenge.
4. Easy-to-Read Table
A table on your chart provides an overview of each rule, your target, current performance, and whether you’re meeting each goal. The table adjusts its color scheme based on your chart settings for optimal visibility.
5. Dynamic Position Sizing
Integrated ATR-based position sizing helps you manage risk and avoid large drawdowns, ensuring each trade aligns with FTMO’s risk management principles.
Daveatt
CCI Threshold StrategyThe CCI Threshold Strategy is a trading approach that utilizes the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) as a momentum indicator to identify potential buy and sell signals in financial markets. The CCI is particularly effective in detecting overbought and oversold conditions, providing traders with insights into possible price reversals. This strategy is designed for use in various financial instruments, including stocks, commodities, and forex, and aims to capitalize on price movements driven by market sentiment.
Commodity Channel Index (CCI)
The CCI was developed by Donald Lambert in the 1980s and is primarily used to measure the deviation of a security's price from its average price over a specified period.
The formula for CCI is as follows:
CCI=(TypicalPrice−SMA)×0.015MeanDeviation
CCI=MeanDeviation(TypicalPrice−SMA)×0.015
where:
Typical Price = (High + Low + Close) / 3
SMA = Simple Moving Average of the Typical Price
Mean Deviation = Average of the absolute deviations from the SMA
The CCI oscillates around a zero line, with values above +100 indicating overbought conditions and values below -100 indicating oversold conditions (Lambert, 1980).
Strategy Logic
The CCI Threshold Strategy operates on the following principles:
Input Parameters:
Lookback Period: The number of periods used to calculate the CCI. A common choice is 9, as it balances responsiveness and noise.
Buy Threshold: Typically set at -90, indicating a potential oversold condition where a price reversal is likely.
Stop Loss and Take Profit: The strategy allows for risk management through customizable stop loss and take profit points.
Entry Conditions:
A long position is initiated when the CCI falls below the buy threshold of -90, indicating potential oversold levels. This condition suggests that the asset may be undervalued and due for a price increase.
Exit Conditions:
The long position is closed when the closing price exceeds the highest price of the previous day, indicating a bullish reversal. Additionally, if the stop loss or take profit thresholds are hit, the position will be exited accordingly.
Risk Management:
The strategy incorporates optional stop loss and take profit mechanisms, which can be toggled on or off based on trader preference. This allows for flexibility in risk management, aligning with individual risk tolerances and trading styles.
Benefits of the CCI Threshold Strategy
Flexibility: The CCI Threshold Strategy can be applied across different asset classes, making it versatile for various market conditions.
Objective Signals: The use of quantitative thresholds for entry and exit reduces emotional bias in trading decisions (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974).
Enhanced Risk Management: By allowing traders to set stop loss and take profit levels, the strategy aids in preserving capital and managing risk effectively.
Limitations
Market Noise: The CCI can produce false signals, especially in highly volatile markets, leading to potential losses (Bollinger, 2001).
Lagging Indicator: As a lagging indicator, the CCI may not always capture rapid market movements, resulting in missed opportunities (Pring, 2002).
Conclusion
The CCI Threshold Strategy offers a systematic approach to trading based on well-established momentum principles. By focusing on overbought and oversold conditions, traders can make informed decisions while managing risk effectively. As with any trading strategy, it is crucial to backtest the approach and adapt it to individual trading styles and market conditions.
References
Bollinger, J. (2001). Bollinger on Bollinger Bands. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Lambert, D. (1980). Commodity Channel Index. Technical Analysis of Stocks & Commodities, 2, 3-5.
Pring, M. J. (2002). Technical Analysis Explained. New York: McGraw-Hill.
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases. Science, 185(4157), 1124-1131.
Dynamic RSI Mean Reversion StrategyDynamic RSI Mean Reversion Strategy
Overview:
This strategy uses an RSI with ATR-Adjusted OB/OS levels in order to enhance the quality of it's mean reversion trades. It also incorporates a form of trend filtering in an effort to minimize downside and maximize upside. The backtest has fewer trades, as it uses substantial filtering to enhance trade quality. As you can see, I didn't cherry pick the results, so the results aren't the most beautiful thing you'll see in your life. I did this to ensure nobody gets misled. If you need a higher frequency of trades, consider removing the trend filter or increasing the length of the EMAs used for trend detection.
Features:
Dynamic OB/OS Levels: Uses ATR to adjust overbought and oversold thresholds dynamically, making the RSI more responsive in varying volatility conditions. This approach enhances signal strength by expanding the RSI range in high volatility and tightening it in low volatility.
Mean Reversion Focus: Designed for mean reversion but incorporates a trend-following filter to reduce countertrend trades. When the RSI is high, it often indicates an uptrend, so a trend filter prevents shorting in these cases and the same goes for downtrends and longing.
Trend Filtering: A moving average cross trend filter checks for the trend direction, with the RSI signal line color-coded to reflect trend shifts. Entries occur when the RSI crosses above or below the dynamic thresholds and is not a countertrend trade.
Stop Losses: Stop losses are set based on ATR distance from the entry price, providing volatility-adjusted protection.
Note:
If you're using this strategy on assets with a higher price, remember to increase the initial capital in the strategy settings. Otherwise, the strategy won't generate any (or many) trades and you'll end up with some inaccurate results.
Recommended Use:
Test it on different assets and timeframes. I’ve found the best results with standard RSI inputs, a relatively slow ATR, and a slower MA cross for trend filtering. Thus, the defaults are set that way. If the trend metrics are too slow, you’ll filter out too many good trades while allowing crummy ones; if too fast, most trades may be filtered out. As always, this has a lot of configurability so experiment to find the balance that works for your trading style.
VWAP Stdev Bands Strategy (Long Only)The VWAP Stdev Bands Strategy (Long Only) is designed to identify potential long entry points in trending markets by utilizing the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) and standard deviation bands. This strategy focuses on capturing upward price movements, leveraging statistical measures to determine optimal buy conditions.
Key Features:
VWAP Calculation: The strategy calculates the VWAP, which represents the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, weighted by volume. This is an essential indicator for determining the overall market trend.
Standard Deviation Bands: Two bands are created above and below the VWAP, calculated using specified standard deviations. These bands act as dynamic support and resistance levels, providing insight into price volatility and potential reversal points.
Trading Logic:
Long Entry Condition: A long position is triggered when the price crosses below the lower standard deviation band and then closes above it, signaling a potential price reversal to the upside.
Profit Target: The strategy allows users to set a predefined profit target, closing the long position once the specified target is reached.
Time Gap Between Orders: A customizable time gap can be specified to prevent multiple orders from being placed in quick succession, allowing for a more controlled trading approach.
Visualization: The VWAP and standard deviation bands are plotted on the chart with distinct colors, enabling traders to visually assess market conditions. The strategy also provides optional plotting of the previous day's VWAP for added context.
Use Cases:
Ideal for traders looking to engage in long-only positions within trending markets.
Suitable for intraday trading strategies or longer-term approaches based on market volatility.
Customization Options:
Users can adjust the standard deviation values, profit target, and time gap to tailor the strategy to their specific trading style and market conditions.
Note: As with any trading strategy, it is important to conduct thorough backtesting and analysis before live trading. Market conditions can change, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
Demo GPT - Day Trading Scalping StrategyOverview:
This strategy is designed for day trading and scalping, utilizing a combination of technical indicators, candlestick patterns, and volume analysis to determine entry and exit points. It focuses on capturing short-term price movements while ensuring that trades are executed under specific market conditions.
Key Components:
Technical Indicators Used:
Exponential Moving Average (EMA): The strategy uses the 20-period EMA to identify the trend direction. The EMA smooths out price data, helping traders make more informed decisions about potential buy or sell signals.
Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP): VWAP is used to measure the average price a security has traded at throughout the day, based on both volume and price. This indicator helps assess whether the current price is above or below the average trading price.
Camarilla Pivot Points: The strategy calculates four levels of Camarilla pivots (S2, S3, R2, R3) based on the highest and lowest prices over the last 14 daily candles. These levels act as potential support and resistance zones, guiding entry and exit decisions.
Candlestick Analysis:
Buy Condition: A buy signal is triggered when:
The first candle (previous candle) is green (close > open).
The second candle (current candle) is also green and opens above the first candle.
The volume of the current candle exceeds the 20-period moving average of volume, indicating strong buying interest.
Sell Condition: A sell signal is triggered when:
The first candle is red (close < open).
The second candle opens below the first red candle.
The volume of the current candle also exceeds the 20-period moving average of volume, indicating strong selling pressure.
Position Management:
The strategy enters a long position (buy) when the buy condition is met and closes the long position when the sell condition is met. This approach aims to capture upward momentum while avoiding extended exposure to downside risks.
Trading Settings:
Capital Management: The strategy uses 100% of available capital for each trade, allowing for maximum exposure to potential gains.
Commission and Slippage: The script includes settings for a commission rate of 0.1% and slippage of 3, accounting for trading costs and potential price changes during order execution.
Date Filtering: The strategy allows users to set a start date (January 1, 2018) and an end date (December 31, 2069) for trade execution, providing flexibility in backtesting and live trading.
Visualization:
The script plots the 20 EMA, VWAP, and the Camarilla pivot levels on the chart for visual reference.
Buy and sell signals are visually represented with shapes on the chart, making it easy to identify potential trade opportunities at a glance.
Volume is plotted in a separate pane to assess trading activity, and a horizontal line at zero provides a reference point.
Summary:
This Day Trading Scalping Strategy is designed to exploit short-term price movements by using a combination of EMAs, VWAP, and Camarilla pivot levels, alongside candlestick patterns and volume analysis. It is well-suited for traders looking to make quick trades based on real-time market conditions while maintaining a disciplined approach to entry and exit points. The strategy is highly visual, allowing traders to quickly assess market conditions and make informed trading decisions.
Feel free to modify or adjust any aspects of the strategy according to your specific trading goals or preferences!
PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing StopPTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop Strategy
Overview
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy is designed to capitalize on strong bullish market movements by combining the Bollinger Bands indicator with a dynamic trailing stop based on the Average True Range (ATR). This strategy aims to enter long positions during upward breakouts and protect profits through an adaptive exit mechanism.
Key Features
1. Bollinger Bands Indicator
Basis Moving Average Type: Choose from SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, or VWMA for the Bollinger Bands' basis line. Length: Adjustable period for calculating the moving average and standard deviation (default is 20). Standard Deviation Multiplier (StdDev): Determines the width of the bands (default is 2.0). Source: Select the price data used for calculations (default is the closing price).
2. Entry Conditions
The strategy enters a long position when the closing price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band , indicating strong upward momentum.
3. Exit Conditions
Trailing Stop Loss: Implemented using ATR to adjust dynamically with market volatility. ATR Length: Period for calculating ATR (default is 14). ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Determines how closely the trailing stop follows the price (default is 2.0). Close Below Lower Bollinger Band: The strategy exits the long position if the closing price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band .
4. Risk Management
Commission and Slippage: Commission is set at 0.1%; slippage is set to 3. Position Sizing: Uses 100% of equity per trade (adjustable).
5. Date Range Filter
Specify the time period during which the strategy is active. Start Date: January 1, 2018. End Date: December 31, 2069.
Customizable Inputs
BB Length: Adjust the period for Bollinger Bands calculation. BB StdDev: Modify the standard deviation multiplier. Basis MA Type: Select the moving average type. Source: Choose the price data source. Offset: Shift the Bollinger Bands on the chart. ATR Length: Set the period for ATR calculation. ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Adjust the trailing stop sensitivity.
Thought for 1m 7s
Description for the "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" Strategy
PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop Strategy
Overview
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy is designed to capitalize on strong bullish market movements by combining the Bollinger Bands indicator with a dynamic trailing stop based on the Average True Range (ATR). This strategy aims to enter long positions during upward breakouts and protect profits through an adaptive exit mechanism.
Key Features
1. Bollinger Bands Indicator
Basis Moving Average Type: Choose from SMA, EMA, SMMA, WMA, or VWMA for the Bollinger Bands' basis line. Length: Adjustable period for calculating the moving average and standard deviation (default is 20). Standard Deviation Multiplier (StdDev): Determines the width of the bands (default is 2.0). Source: Select the price data used for calculations (default is the closing price).
2. Entry Conditions
The strategy enters a long position when the closing price crosses above the upper Bollinger Band , indicating strong upward momentum.
3. Exit Conditions
Trailing Stop Loss: Implemented using ATR to adjust dynamically with market volatility. ATR Length: Period for calculating ATR (default is 14). ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Determines how closely the trailing stop follows the price (default is 2.0). Close Below Lower Bollinger Band: The strategy exits the long position if the closing price crosses below the lower Bollinger Band .
4. Risk Management
Commission and Slippage: Commission is set at 0.1%; slippage is set to 3. Position Sizing: Uses 100% of equity per trade (adjustable).
5. Date Range Filter
Specify the time period during which the strategy is active. Start Date: January 1, 2018. End Date: December 31, 2069.
Customizable Inputs
BB Length: Adjust the period for Bollinger Bands calculation. BB StdDev: Modify the standard deviation multiplier. Basis MA Type: Select the moving average type. Source: Choose the price data source. Offset: Shift the Bollinger Bands on the chart. ATR Length: Set the period for ATR calculation. ATR Multiplier for Trailing Stop: Adjust the trailing stop sensitivity.
How the Strategy Works
1. Initialization
Calculates Bollinger Bands and ATR based on selected parameters.
2. Entry Logic
Opens a long position when the closing price exceeds the upper Bollinger Band.
3. Exit Logic
Uses a trailing stop loss based on ATR. Exits if the closing price drops below the lower Bollinger Band.
4. Date Filtering
Executes trades only within the specified date range.
Advantages
Adaptive Risk Management: Trailing stop adjusts to market volatility. Simplicity: Clear entry and exit signals. Customizable Parameters: Tailor the strategy to different assets or conditions.
Considerations
Aggressive Position Sizing: Using 100% equity per trade is high-risk. Market Conditions: Best in trending markets; may produce false signals in sideways markets. Backtesting: Always test on historical data before live trading.
Disclaimer
This strategy is intended for educational and informational purposes only. Trading involves significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Assess your financial situation and consult a financial advisor if necessary.
Usage Instructions
1. Apply the Strategy: Add it to your TradingView chart. 2. Configure Inputs: Adjust parameters to suit your style and asset. 3. Analyze Backtest Results: Use the Strategy Tester. 4. Optimize Parameters: Experiment with input values. 5. Risk Management: Evaluate position sizing and incorporate risk controls.
Final Notes
The "PTS - Bollinger Bands with Trailing Stop" strategy provides a framework to leverage momentum breakouts while managing risk through adaptive trailing stops. Customize and test thoroughly to align with your trading objectives.
Dual Momentum StrategyThis Pine Script™ strategy implements the "Dual Momentum" approach developed by Gary Antonacci, as presented in his book Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk (McGraw Hill Professional, 2014). Dual momentum investing combines relative momentum and absolute momentum to maximize returns while minimizing risk. Relative momentum involves selecting the asset with the highest recent performance between two options (a risky asset and a safe asset), while absolute momentum considers whether the chosen asset has a positive return over a specified lookback period.
In this strategy:
Risky Asset (SPY): Represents a stock index fund, typically more volatile but with higher potential returns.
Safe Asset (TLT): Represents a bond index fund, which generally has lower volatility and acts as a hedge during market downturns.
Monthly Momentum Calculation: The momentum for each asset is calculated based on its price change over the last 12 months. Only assets with a positive momentum (absolute momentum) are considered for investment.
Decision Rules:
Invest in the risky asset if its momentum is positive and greater than that of the safe asset.
If the risky asset’s momentum is negative or lower than the safe asset's, the strategy shifts the allocation to the safe asset.
Scientific Reference
Antonacci's work on dual momentum investing has shown the strategy's ability to outperform traditional buy-and-hold methods while reducing downside risk. This approach has been reviewed and discussed in both academic and investment publications, highlighting its strong risk-adjusted returns (Antonacci, 2014).
Reference: Antonacci, G. (2014). Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk. McGraw Hill Professional.
Fibonacci ATR Fusion - Strategy [presentTrading]Open-script again! This time is also an ATR-related strategy. Enjoy! :)
If you have any questions, let me know, and I'll help make this as effective as possible.
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy is an advanced trading approach that uniquely integrates Fibonacci-based weighted averages with the Average True Range (ATR) to identify and capitalize on significant market trends.
Unlike traditional strategies that rely on single indicators or static parameters, this method combines multiple timeframes and dynamic volatility measurements to enhance precision and adaptability. Additionally, it features a 4-step Take Profit (TP) mechanism, allowing for systematic profit-taking at various levels, which optimizes both risk management and return potential in long and short market positions.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy utilizes a combination of technical indicators and weighted averages to determine optimal entry and exit points. Below is a breakdown of its key components and operational logic.
🔶 1. Enhanced True Range Calculation
The strategy begins by calculating the True Range (TR) to measure market volatility accurately.
TR = max(High - Low, abs(High - Previous Close), abs(Low - Previous Close))
High and Low: Highest and lowest prices of the current trading period.
Previous Close: Closing price of the preceding trading period.
max: Selects the largest value among the three calculations to account for gaps and limit movements.
🔶 2. Buying Pressure (BP) Calculation
Buying Pressure (BP) quantifies the extent to which buyers are driving the price upwards within a period.
BP = Close - True Low
Close: Current period's closing price.
True Low: The lower boundary determined in the True Range calculation.
🔶 3. Ratio Calculation for Different Periods
To assess the strength of buying pressure relative to volatility, the strategy calculates a ratio over various Fibonacci-based timeframes.
Ratio = 100 * (Sum of BP over n periods) / (Sum of TR over n periods)
n: Length of the period (e.g., 8, 13, 21, 34, 55).
Sum of BP: Cumulative Buying Pressure over n periods.
Sum of TR: Cumulative True Range over n periods.
This ratio normalizes buying pressure, making it comparable across different timeframes.
🔶 4. Weighted Average Calculation
The strategy employs a weighted average of ratios from multiple Fibonacci-based periods to smooth out signals and enhance trend detection.
Weighted Avg = (w1 * Ratio_p1 + w2 * Ratio_p2 + w3 * Ratio_p3 + w4 * Ratio_p4 + Ratio_p5) / (w1 + w2 + w3 + w4 + 1)
w1, w2, w3, w4: Weights assigned to each ratio period.
Ratio_p1 to Ratio_p5: Ratios calculated for periods p1 to p5 (e.g., 8, 13, 21, 34, 55).
This weighted approach emphasizes shorter periods more heavily, capturing recent market dynamics while still considering longer-term trends.
🔶 5. Simple Moving Average (SMA) of Weighted Average
To further smooth the weighted average and reduce noise, a Simple Moving Average (SMA) is applied.
Weighted Avg SMA = SMA(Weighted Avg, m)
- m: SMA period (e.g., 3).
This smoothed line serves as the primary signal generator for trade entries and exits.
🔶 6. Trading Condition Thresholds
The strategy defines specific threshold values to determine optimal entry and exit points based on crossovers and crossunders of the SMA.
Long Condition = Crossover(Weighted Avg SMA, Long Entry Threshold)
Short Condition = Crossunder(Weighted Avg SMA, Short Entry Threshold)
Long Exit = Crossunder(Weighted Avg SMA, Long Exit Threshold)
Short Exit = Crossover(Weighted Avg SMA, Short Exit Threshold)
Long Entry Threshold (T_LE): Level at which a long position is triggered.
Short Entry Threshold (T_SE): Level at which a short position is triggered.
Long Exit Threshold (T_LX): Level at which a long position is exited.
Short Exit Threshold (T_SX): Level at which a short position is exited.
These conditions ensure that trades are only executed when clear trends are identified, enhancing the strategy's reliability.
Previous local performance
🔶 7. ATR-Based Take Profit Mechanism
When enabled, the strategy employs a 4-step Take Profit system to systematically secure profits as the trade moves in the desired direction.
TP Price_1 Long = Entry Price + (TP1ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_2 Long = Entry Price + (TP2ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_3 Long = Entry Price + (TP3ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_1 Short = Entry Price - (TP1ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_2 Short = Entry Price - (TP2ATR * ATR Value)
TP Price_3 Short = Entry Price - (TP3ATR * ATR Value)
- ATR Value: Calculated using ATR over a specified period (e.g., 14).
- TPxATR: User-defined multipliers for each take profit level.
- TPx_percent: Percentage of the position to exit at each TP level.
This multi-tiered exit strategy allows for partial position closures, optimizing profit capture while maintaining exposure to potential further gains.
█ Trade Direction
The Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy is designed to operate in both long and short market conditions, providing flexibility to traders in varying market environments.
Long Trades: Initiated when the SMA of the weighted average crosses above the Long Entry Threshold (T_LE), indicating strong upward momentum.
Short Trades: Initiated when the SMA of the weighted average crosses below the Short Entry Threshold (T_SE), signaling robust downward momentum.
Additionally, the strategy can be configured to trade exclusively in one direction—Long, Short, or Both—based on the trader’s preference and market analysis.
█ Usage
Implementing the Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy involves several steps to ensure it aligns with your trading objectives and market conditions.
1. Configure Strategy Parameters:
- Trading Direction: Choose between Long, Short, or Both based on your market outlook.
- Trading Condition Thresholds: Set the Long Entry, Short Entry, Long Exit, and Short Exit thresholds to define when to enter and exit trades.
2. Set Take Profit Levels (if enabled):
- ATR Multipliers: Define how many ATRs away from the entry price each take profit level is set.
- Take Profit Percentages: Allocate what percentage of the position to close at each TP level.
3. Apply to Desired Chart:
- Add the strategy to the chart of the asset you wish to trade.
- Observe the plotted Fibonacci ATR and SMA Fibonacci ATR indicators for visual confirmation.
4. Monitor and Adjust:
- Regularly review the strategy’s performance through backtesting.
- Adjust the input parameters based on historical performance and changing market dynamics.
5. Risk Management:
- Ensure that the sum of take profit percentages does not exceed 100% to avoid over-closing positions.
- Utilize the ATR-based TP levels to adapt to varying market volatilities, maintaining a balanced risk-reward ratio.
█ Default Settings
Understanding the default settings is crucial for optimizing the Fibonacci ATR Fusion Strategy's performance. Here's a precise and simple overview of the key parameters and their effects:
🔶 Key Parameters and Their Effects
1. Trading Direction (`tradingDirection`)
- Default: Both
- Effect: Determines whether the strategy takes both long and short positions or restricts to one direction. Selecting Both allows maximum flexibility, while Long or Short can be used for directional bias.
2. Trading Condition Thresholds
Long Entry (long_entry_threshold = 58.0): Higher values reduce false positives but may miss trades.
Short Entry (short_entry_threshold = 42.0): Lower values capture early short trends but may increase false signals.
Long Exit (long_exit_threshold = 42.0): Exits long positions early, securing profits but potentially cutting trends short.
Short Exit (short_exit_threshold = 58.0): Delays short exits to capture favorable movements, avoiding premature exits.
3. Take Profit Configuration (`useTakeProfit` = false)
- Effect: When enabled, the strategy employs a 4-step TP mechanism to secure profits at multiple levels. By default, it is disabled to allow users to opt-in based on their trading style.
4. ATR-Based Take Profit Multipliers
TP1 (tp1ATR = 3.0): Sets the first TP at 3 ATRs for initial profit capture.
TP2 (tp2ATR = 8.0): Targets larger trends, though less likely to be reached.
TP3 (tp3ATR = 14.0): Optimizes for extreme price moves, seldom triggered.
5. Take Profit Percentages
TP Level 1 (tp1_percent = 12%): Secures 12% at the first TP.
TP Level 2 (tp2_percent = 12%): Exits another 12% at the second TP.
TP Level 3 (tp3_percent = 12%): Closes an additional 12% at the third TP.
6. Weighted Average Parameters
Ratio Periods: Fibonacci-based intervals (8, 13, 21, 34, 55) balance responsiveness.
Weights: Emphasizes recent data for timely responses to market trends.
SMA Period (weighted_avg_sma_period = 3): Smoothens data with minimal lag, balancing noise reduction and responsiveness.
7. ATR Period (`atrPeriod` = 14)
Effect: Sets the ATR calculation length, impacting TP sensitivity to volatility.
🔶 Impact on Performance
- Sensitivity and Responsiveness:
- Shorter Ratio Periods and Higher Weights: Make the weighted average more responsive to recent price changes, allowing quicker trade entries and exits but increasing the likelihood of false signals.
- Longer Ratio Periods and Lower Weights: Provide smoother signals with fewer false positives but may delay trade entries, potentially missing out on significant price moves.
- Profit Taking:
- ATR Multipliers: Higher multipliers set take profit levels further away, targeting larger price movements but reducing the probability of reaching these levels.
- Fixed Percentages: Allocating equal percentages at each TP level ensures consistent profit realization and risk management, preventing overexposure.
- Trade Direction Control:
- Selecting Specific Directions: Restricting trades to Long or Short can align the strategy with market trends or personal biases, potentially enhancing performance in trending markets.
- Risk Management:
- Take Profit Percentages: Dividing the position into smaller percentages at multiple TP levels helps lock in profits progressively, reducing risk and allowing the remaining position to ride further trends.
- Market Adaptability:
- Weighted Averages and ATR: By combining multiple timeframes and adjusting to volatility, the strategy adapts to different market conditions, maintaining effectiveness across various asset classes and timeframes.
---
If you want to know more about ATR, can also check "SuperATR 7-Step Profit".
Enjoy trading.
US 30 Daily Breakout Strategy The US 30 Daily Breakout Strategy (Single Trade Per Breakout/Breakdown) is a trading approach for the US 30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average) that aims to capture breakout or breakdown moves based on the previous day’s high and low levels. The strategy includes mechanisms to take only one trade per breakout (or breakdown) each day and ensures that each trade is executed only when no other trade is open.
Entry Conditions:
Long Trade (Breakout): The strategy initiates a long position if the current candle closes above the previous day's high, indicating an upward breakout. Only one breakout trade can occur per day, regardless of whether the price remains above the previous high.
Short Trade (Breakdown): The strategy initiates a short position if the current candle closes below the previous day's low, indicating a downward breakdown. Similarly, only one breakdown trade can occur per day.
Risk Management:
Take Profit and Stop Loss: Each trade has a take profit and stop loss of 50 points, aiming to cap profit and limit loss effectively for each position.
Daily Reset Mechanism:
At the start of each new day (based on New York time), the strategy resets its flags, allowing it to look for new breakout or breakdown trades. This reset ensures that only one trade can be taken per breakout or breakdown level each day.
Execution Logic
Flags for Trade Limitation: Flags (breakout_traded and breakdown_traded) are used to ensure only one breakout or breakdown trade is taken per day. These flags reset daily.
Dynamic Plotting: The previous day’s high and low are plotted on the chart, providing a visual reference for potential breakout or breakdown levels.
Overall Objective
This strategy is designed to capture single-directional daily moves by identifying significant breakouts or breakdowns beyond the previous day’s range. The fixed profit and loss limits ensure the trades are managed with controlled risk, while the daily reset feature prevents overtrading and limits each trade opportunity to one breakout and one breakdown attempt per day.
The Most Powerful TQQQ EMA Crossover Trend Trading StrategyTQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy Indicator
Meta Title: TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy - Enhance Your Trading with Effective Signals
Meta Description: Discover the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy, designed to optimize trading decisions with fast and slow EMA crossovers. Learn how to effectively use this powerful indicator for better trading results.
Key Features
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy is a powerful trading tool that utilizes Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to identify potential entry and exit points in the market. Key features of this indicator include:
**Fast and Slow EMAs:** The strategy incorporates two EMAs, allowing traders to capture short-term trends while filtering out market noise.
**Entry and Exit Signals:** Automated signals for entering and exiting trades based on EMA crossovers, enhancing decision-making efficiency.
**Customizable Parameters:** Users can adjust the lengths of the EMAs, as well as take profit and stop loss multipliers, tailoring the strategy to their trading style.
**Visual Indicators:** Clear visual plots of the EMAs and exit points on the chart for easy interpretation.
How It Works
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy operates by calculating two EMAs: a fast EMA (default length of 20) and a slow EMA (default length of 50). The core concept is based on the crossover of these two moving averages:
- When the fast EMA crosses above the slow EMA, it generates a *buy signal*, indicating a potential upward trend.
- Conversely, when the fast EMA crosses below the slow EMA, it produces a *sell signal*, suggesting a potential downward trend.
This method allows traders to capitalize on momentum shifts in the market, providing timely signals for trade execution.
Trading Ideas and Insights
Traders can leverage the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy in various market conditions. Here are some insights:
**Scalping Opportunities:** The strategy is particularly effective for scalping in volatile markets, allowing traders to make quick profits on small price movements.
**Swing Trading:** Longer-term traders can use this strategy to identify significant trend reversals and capitalize on larger price swings.
**Risk Management:** By incorporating customizable stop loss and take profit levels, traders can manage their risk effectively while maximizing potential returns.
How Multiple Indicators Work Together
While this strategy primarily relies on EMAs, it can be enhanced by integrating additional indicators such as:
- **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** To confirm overbought or oversold conditions before entering trades.
- **Volume Indicators:** To validate breakout signals, ensuring that price movements are supported by sufficient trading volume.
Combining these indicators provides a more comprehensive view of market dynamics, increasing the reliability of trade signals generated by the EMA crossover.
Unique Aspects
What sets this indicator apart is its simplicity combined with effectiveness. The reliance on EMAs allows for smoother signals compared to traditional moving averages, reducing false signals often associated with choppy price action. Additionally, the ability to customize parameters ensures that traders can adapt the strategy to fit their unique trading styles and risk tolerance.
How to Use
To effectively utilize the TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy:
1. **Add the Indicator:** Load the script onto your TradingView chart.
2. **Set Parameters:** Adjust the fast and slow EMA lengths according to your trading preferences.
3. **Monitor Signals:** Watch for crossover points; enter trades based on buy/sell signals generated by the indicator.
4. **Implement Risk Management:** Set your stop loss and take profit levels using the provided multipliers.
Regularly review your trading performance and adjust parameters as necessary to optimize results.
Customization
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy allows for extensive customization:
- **EMA Lengths:** Change the default lengths of both fast and slow EMAs to suit different time frames or market conditions.
- **Take Profit/Stop Loss Multipliers:** Adjust these values to align with your risk management strategy. For instance, increasing the take profit multiplier may yield larger gains but could also increase exposure to market fluctuations.
This flexibility makes it suitable for various trading styles, from aggressive scalpers to conservative swing traders.
Conclusion
The TQQQ EMA Crossover Strategy is an effective tool for traders seeking an edge in their trading endeavors. By utilizing fast and slow EMAs, this indicator provides clear entry and exit signals while allowing for customization to fit individual trading strategies. Whether you are a scalper looking for quick profits or a swing trader aiming for larger moves, this indicator offers valuable insights into market trends.
Incorporate it into your TradingView toolkit today and elevate your trading performance!
Bullish B's - RSI Divergence StrategyThis indicator strategy is an RSI (Relative Strength Index) divergence trading tool designed to identify high-probability entry and exit points based on trend shifts. It utilizes both regular and hidden RSI divergence patterns to spot potential reversals, with signals for both bullish and bearish conditions.
Key Features
Divergence Detection:
Bullish Divergence: Signals when RSI indicates momentum strengthening at a lower price level, suggesting a reversal to the upside.
Bearish Divergence: Signals when RSI shows weakening momentum at a higher price level, indicating a potential downside reversal.
Hidden Divergences: Looks for hidden bullish and bearish divergences, which signal trend continuation points where price action aligns with the prevailing trend.
Volume-Adjusted Entry Signals:
The strategy enters long trades when RSI shows bullish or hidden bullish divergence, indicating an upward momentum shift.
An optional volume filter ensures that only high-volume, high-conviction trades trigger a signal.
Exit Signals:
Exits long positions when RSI reaches a customizable overbought level, typically indicating a potential reversal or profit-taking opportunity.
Also closes positions if bearish divergence signals appear after a bullish setup, providing protection against trend reversals.
Trailing Stop-Loss:
Uses a trailing stop mechanism based on ATR (Average True Range) or a percentage threshold to lock in profits as the price moves in favor of the trade.
Alerts and Custom Notifications:
Integrated with TradingView alerts to notify the user when entry and exit conditions are met, supporting timely decision-making without constant monitoring.
Customizable Parameters:
Users can adjust the RSI period, pivot lookback range, overbought level, trailing stop type (ATR or percentage), and divergence range to fit their trading style.
Ideal Usage
This strategy is well-suited for trend traders and swing traders looking to capture reversals and trend continuations on medium to long timeframes. The divergence signals, paired with trailing stops and volume validation, make it adaptable for multiple asset classes, including stocks, forex, and crypto.
Summary
With its focus on RSI divergence, trailing stop-loss management, and volume filtering, this strategy aims to identify and capture trend changes with minimized risk. This allows traders to efficiently capture profitable moves and manage open positions with precision.
This Strategy BEST works with GLD!
Monday Open StrategyYear Range Inputs:
start_year and end_year allow you to define the range of years in which the strategy will execute.
You can adjust these values in the script’s settings panel in TradingView.
Entry Condition:
The strategy checks that the current year falls within the specified range before entering a trade on Monday’s open.
Exit Condition:
Similarly, it only exits on Tuesday’s close if the current year is within the specified range.
This setup ensures that trades only take place between the defined years, effectively filtering out unwanted trades outside this timeframe.
TrendGuard Scalper: SSL + Hama Candle with Consolidation ZonesThis TradingView script brings a powerful scalping strategy that combines the SSL Channel and Hama Candles indicators with a special twist—consolidation detection. Designed for traders looking for consistency in various markets like crypto, forex, and stocks, this strategy highlights clear trend signals, risk management, and helps filter out risky trades during consolidation periods.
Why Use This Strategy?
Clear Trend Detection:
With the SSL Channel, you’ll know exactly when the market is in an uptrend (green) or downtrend (red), giving you straightforward entry points.
Short-Term Trend Precision with Hama Candles:
By calculating unique EMAs for open, high, low, and close, the Hama Candles show the strength and direction of short-term trends. Combined with the Hama Line, it gives you a solid confirmation on whether the trend is strong or about to reverse, allowing for precise entries and exits.
Avoiding Choppy Markets:
Thanks to ATR-based consolidation detection, this strategy identifies low-volatility periods where the market is “choppy” and less predictable. During these times, a yellow background appears on the chart, warning you to hold off on trades, reducing the likelihood of entering losing trades.
Built-In Risk Management:
With adjustable Take Profit and Stop Loss levels based on price movements, you can set and forget your trades, with a safety net if the market turns against you. The strategy automatically closes positions if the price returns to the Hama Candle, keeping your risk low.
How It Works:
Long Position: When both the SSL and Hama indicators show a green trend, and the price is above the Hama Candles, the strategy opens a long position. Take Profit triggers at your chosen risk-to-reward ratio, while Stop Loss protects you just below the Hama Line.
Short Position: When both indicators align in red and the price is below the Hama Candles, the strategy opens a short. Similar to longs, Stop Loss is set just above the Hama Line, and Take Profit is at your defined level.
Start Trading Confidently
Test this strategy with different settings and discover how it can perform across various assets. Whether you're trading Bitcoin, forex pairs, or stocks, this system has the flexibility and robustness to help you spot profitable trends and avoid risky zones. Try it today on a 30-minute timeframe to see how it aligns with your trading goals, and let the consolidation detection guide you away from false signals.
Happy trading, and may the trends be with you! 📈
Z-Score RSI StrategyOverview
The Z-Score RSI Indicator is an experimental take on momentum analysis. By applying the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to a Z-score of price data, it measures how far prices deviate from their mean, scaled by standard deviation. This isn’t your traditional use of RSI, which is typically based on price data alone. Nevertheless, this unconventional approach can yield unique insights into market trends and potential reversals.
Theory and Interpretation
The RSI calculates the balance between average gains and losses over a set period, outputting values from 0 to 100. Typically, people look at the overbought or oversold levels to identify momentum extremes that might be likely to lead to a reversal. However, I’ve often found that RSI can be effective for trend-following when observing the crossover of its moving average with the midline or the crossover of the RSI with its own moving average. These crossovers can provide useful trend signals in various market conditions.
By combining RSI with a Z-score of price, this indicator estimates the relative strength of the price’s distance from its mean. Positive Z-score trends may signal a potential for higher-than-average prices in the near future (scaled by the standard deviation), while negative trends suggest the opposite. Essentially, when the Z-Score RSI indicates a trend, it reflects that the Z-score (the distance between the average and current price) is likely to continue moving in the trend’s direction. Generally, this signals a potential price movement, though it’s important to note that this could also occur if there’s a shift in the mean or standard deviation, rather than a meaningful change in price itself.
While the Z-Score RSI could be an insightful addition to a comprehensive trading system, it should be interpreted carefully. Mean shifts may validate the indicator’s predictions without necessarily indicating any notable price change, meaning it’s best used in tandem with other indicators or strategies.
Recommendations
Before putting this indicator to use, conduct thorough backtesting and avoid overfitting. The added parameters allow fine-tuning to fit various assets, but be careful not to optimize purely for the highest historical returns. Doing so may create an overly tailored strategy that performs well in backtests but fails in live markets. Keep it balanced and look for robust performance across multiple scenarios, as overfitting is likely to lead to disappointing real-world results.
S&P 100 Option Expiration Week StrategyThe Option Expiration Week Strategy aims to capitalize on increased volatility and trading volume that often occur during the week leading up to the expiration of options on stocks in the S&P 100 index. This period, known as the option expiration week, culminates on the third Friday of each month when stock options typically expire in the U.S. During this week, investors in this strategy take a long position in S&P 100 stocks or an equivalent ETF from the Monday preceding the third Friday, holding until Friday. The strategy capitalizes on potential upward price pressures caused by increased option-related trading activity, rebalancing, and hedging practices.
The phenomenon leveraged by this strategy is well-documented in finance literature. Studies demonstrate that options expiration dates have a significant impact on stock returns, trading volume, and volatility. This effect is driven by various market dynamics, including portfolio rebalancing, delta hedging by option market makers, and the unwinding of positions by institutional investors (Stoll & Whaley, 1987; Ni, Pearson, & Poteshman, 2005). These market activities intensify near option expiration, causing price adjustments that may create short-term profitable opportunities for those aware of these patterns (Roll, Schwartz, & Subrahmanyam, 2009).
The paper by Johnson and So (2013), Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks, provides empirical evidence supporting this strategy. The study analyzes the impact of option expiration on S&P 100 stocks, showing that these stocks tend to exhibit abnormal returns and increased volume during the expiration week. The authors attribute these patterns to intensified option trading activity, where demand for hedging and arbitrage around options expiration causes temporary price adjustments.
Scientific Explanation
Research has found that option expiration weeks are marked by predictable increases in stock returns and volatility, largely due to the role of options market makers and institutional investors. Option market makers often use delta hedging to manage exposure, which requires frequent buying or selling of the underlying stock to maintain a hedged position. As expiration approaches, their activity can amplify price fluctuations. Additionally, institutional investors often roll over or unwind positions during expiration weeks, creating further demand for underlying stocks (Stoll & Whaley, 1987). This increased demand around expiration week typically leads to temporary stock price increases, offering profitable opportunities for short-term strategies.
Key Research and Bibliography
Johnson, T. C., & So, E. C. (2013). Returns and Option Activity over the Option-Expiration Week for S&P 100 Stocks. Journal of Banking and Finance, 37(11), 4226-4240.
This study specifically examines the S&P 100 stocks and demonstrates that option expiration weeks are associated with abnormal returns and trading volume due to increased activity in the options market.
Stoll, H. R., & Whaley, R. E. (1987). Program Trading and Expiration-Day Effects. Financial Analysts Journal, 43(2), 16-28.
Stoll and Whaley analyze how program trading and portfolio insurance strategies around expiration days impact stock prices, leading to temporary volatility and increased trading volume.
Ni, S. X., Pearson, N. D., & Poteshman, A. M. (2005). Stock Price Clustering on Option Expiration Dates. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(1), 49-87.
This paper investigates how option expiration dates affect stock price clustering and volume, driven by delta hedging and other option-related trading activities.
Roll, R., Schwartz, E., & Subrahmanyam, A. (2009). Options Trading Activity and Firm Valuation. Journal of Financial Markets, 12(3), 519-534.
The authors explore how options trading activity influences firm valuation, finding that higher options volume around expiration dates can lead to temporary price movements in underlying stocks.
Cao, C., & Wei, J. (2010). Option Market Liquidity and Stock Return Volatility. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 45(2), 481-507.
This study examines the relationship between options market liquidity and stock return volatility, finding that increased liquidity needs during expiration weeks can heighten volatility, impacting stock returns.
Summary
The Option Expiration Week Strategy utilizes well-researched financial market phenomena related to option expiration. By positioning long in S&P 100 stocks or ETFs during this period, traders can potentially capture abnormal returns driven by option market dynamics. The literature suggests that options-related activities—such as delta hedging, position rollovers, and portfolio adjustments—intensify demand for underlying assets, creating short-term profit opportunities around these key dates.
Payday Anomaly StrategyThe "Payday Effect" refers to a predictable anomaly in financial markets where stock returns exhibit significant fluctuations around specific pay periods. Typically, these are associated with the beginning, middle, or end of the month when many investors receive wages and salaries. This influx of funds, often directed automatically into retirement accounts or investment portfolios (such as 401(k) plans in the United States), temporarily increases the demand for equities. This phenomenon has been linked to a cycle where stock prices rise disproportionately on and around payday periods due to increased buy-side liquidity.
Academic research on the payday effect suggests that this pattern is tied to systematic cash flows into financial markets, primarily driven by employee retirement and savings plans. The regularity of these cash infusions creates a calendar-based pattern that can be exploited in trading strategies. Studies show that returns on days around typical payroll dates tend to be above average, and this pattern remains observable across various time periods and regions.
The rationale behind the payday effect is rooted in the behavioral tendencies of investors, specifically the automatic reinvestment mechanisms used in retirement funds, which align with monthly or semi-monthly salary payments. This regular injection of funds can cause market microstructure effects where stock prices temporarily increase, only to stabilize or reverse after the funds have been invested. Consequently, the payday effect provides traders with a potentially profitable opportunity by predicting these inflows.
Scientific Bibliography on the Payday Effect
Ma, A., & Pratt, W. R. (2017). Payday Anomaly: The Market Impact of Semi-Monthly Pay Periods. Social Science Research Network (SSRN).
This study provides a comprehensive analysis of the payday effect, exploring how returns tend to peak around payroll periods due to semi-monthly cash flows. The paper discusses how systematic inflows impact returns, leading to predictable stock performance patterns on specific days of the month.
Lakonishok, J., & Smidt, S. (1988). Are Seasonal Anomalies Real? A Ninety-Year Perspective. The Review of Financial Studies, 1(4), 403-425.
This foundational study explores calendar anomalies, including the payday effect. By examining data over nearly a century, the authors establish a framework for understanding seasonal and monthly patterns in stock returns, which provides historical support for the payday effect.
Owen, S., & Rabinovitch, R. (1983). On the Predictability of Common Stock Returns: A Step Beyond the Random Walk Hypothesis. Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, 10(3), 379-396.
This paper investigates predictability in stock returns beyond random fluctuations. It considers payday effects among various calendar anomalies, arguing that certain dates yield predictable returns due to regular cash inflows.
Loughran, T., & Schultz, P. (2005). Liquidity: Urban versus Rural Firms. Journal of Financial Economics, 78(2), 341-374.
While primarily focused on liquidity, this study provides insight into how cash flows, such as those from semi-monthly paychecks, influence liquidity levels and consequently impact stock prices around predictable pay dates.
Ariel, R. A. (1990). High Stock Returns Before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes. The Journal of Finance, 45(5), 1611-1626.
Ariel’s work highlights stock return patterns tied to certain dates, including paydays. Although the study focuses on pre-holiday returns, it suggests broader implications of predictable investment timing, reinforcing the calendar-based effects seen with payday anomalies.
Summary
Research on the payday effect highlights a repeating pattern in stock market returns driven by scheduled payroll investments. This cyclical increase in stock demand aligns with behavioral finance insights and market microstructure theories, offering a valuable basis for trading strategies focused on the beginning, middle, and end of each month.
XAUUSD 10-Minute StrategyThis XAUUSD 10-Minute Strategy is designed for trading Gold vs. USD on a 10-minute timeframe. By combining multiple technical indicators (MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands, and ATR), the strategy effectively captures both trend-following and reversal opportunities, with adaptive risk management for varying market volatility. This approach balances high-probability entries with robust volatility management, making it suitable for traders seeking to optimise entries during significant price movements and reversals.
Key Components and Logic:
MACD (12, 26, 9):
Generates buy signals on MACD Line crossovers above the Signal Line and sell signals on crossovers below the Signal Line, helping to capture momentum shifts.
RSI (14):
Utilizes oversold (below 35) and overbought (above 65) levels as a secondary filter to validate entries and avoid overextended price zones.
Bollinger Bands (20, 2):
Uses upper and lower Bollinger Bands to identify potential overbought and oversold conditions, aiming to enter long trades near the lower band and short trades near the upper band.
ATR-Based Stop Loss and Take Profit:
Stop Loss and Take Profit levels are dynamically set as multiples of ATR (3x for stop loss, 5x for take profit), ensuring flexibility with market volatility to optimise exit points.
Entry & Exit Conditions:
Buy Entry: T riggered when any of the following conditions are met:
MACD Line crosses above the Signal Line
RSI is oversold
Price drops below the lower Bollinger Band
Sell Entry: Triggered when any of the following conditions are met:
MACD Line crosses below the Signal Line
RSI is overbought
Price moves above the upper Bollinger Band
Exit Strategy: Trades are closed based on opposing entry signals, with adaptive spread adjustments for realistic exit points.
Backtesting Configuration & Results:
Backtesting Period: July 21, 2024, to October 30, 2024
Symbol Info: XAUUSD, 10-minute timeframe, OANDA data source
Backtesting Capital: Initial capital of $700, with each trade set to 10 contracts (equivalent to approximately 0.1 lots based on the broker’s contract size for gold).
Users should confirm their broker's contract size for gold, as this may differ. This script uses 10 contracts for backtesting purposes, aligned with 0.1 lots on brokers offering a 100-contract specification.
Key Backtesting Performance Metrics:
Net Profit: $4,733.90 USD (676.27% increase)
Total Closed Trades: 526
Win Rate: 53.99%
Profit Factor: 1.44 (1.96 for Long trades, 1.14 for Short trades)
Max Drawdown: $819.75 USD (56.33% of equity)
Sharpe Ratio: 1.726
Average Trade: $9.00 USD (0.04% of equity per trade)
This backtest reflects realistic conditions, with a spread adjustment of 38 points and no slippage or commission applied. The settings aim to simulate typical retail trading conditions. However, please adjust the initial capital, contract size, and other settings based on your account specifics for best results.
Usage:
This strategy is tuned specifically for XAUUSD on a 10-minute timeframe, ideal for both trend-following and reversal trades. The ATR-based stop loss and take profit levels adapt dynamically to market volatility, optimising entries and exits in varied conditions. To backtest this script accurately, ensure your broker’s contract specifications for gold align with the parameters used in this strategy.
Equilibrium Candles + Pattern [Honestcowboy]The Equilibrium Candles is a very simple trend continuation or reversal strategy depending on your settings.
How an Equilibrium Candle is created:
We calculate the equilibrium by measuring the mid point between highest and lowest point over X amount of bars back.
This now is the opening price for each bar and will be considered a green bar if price closes above equilibrium.
Bars get shaded by checking if regular candle close is higher than open etc. So you still see what the normal candles are doing.
Why are they useful?
The equilibrium is calculated the same as Baseline in Ichimoku Cloud. Which provides a point where price is very likely to retrace to. This script visualises the distance between close and equilibrium using candles. To provide a clear visual of how price relates to this equilibrium point.
This also makes it more straightforward to develop strategies based on this simple concept and makes the trader purely focus on this relationship and not think of any Ichimoku Cloud theories.
Script uses a very simple pattern to enter trades:
It will count how many candles have been one directional (above or below equilibrium)
Based on user input after X candles (7 by default) script shows we are in a trend (bg colors)
On the first pullback (candle closes on other side of equilibrium) it will look to enter a trade.
Places a stop order at the high of the candle if bullish trend or reverse if bearish trend.
If based on user input after X opposite candles (2 by default) order is not filled will cancel it and look for a new trend.
Use Reverse Logic:
There is a use reverse logic in the settings which on default is turned on. It will turn long orders into short orders making the stop orders become limit orders. It will use the normal long SL as target for the short. And TP as stop for the short. This to provide a means to reverse equity curve in case your pair is mean reverting by nature instead of trending.
ATR Calculation:
Averaged ATR, which is using ta.percentile_nearest_rank of 60% of a normal ATR (14 period) over the last 200 bars. This in simple words finds a value slightly above the mean ATR value over that period.
Big Candle Exit Logic:
Using Averaged ATR the script will check if a candle closes X times that ATR from the equilibrium point. This is then considered an overextension and all trades are closed.
This is also based on user input.
Simple trade management logic:
Checks if the user has selected to use TP and SL, or/and big candle exit.
Places a TP and SL based on averaged ATR at a multiplier based on user Input.
Closes trade if there is a Big Candle Exit or an opposite direction signal from indicator.
Script can be fully automated to MT5
There are risk settings in % and symbol settings provided at the bottom of the indicator. The script will send alert to MT5 broker trying to mimic the execution that happens on tradingview. There are always delays when using a bridge to MT5 broker and there could be errors so be mindful of that. This script sends alerts in format so they can be read by tradingview.to which is a bridge between the platforms.
Use the all alert function calls feature when setting up alerts and make sure you provide the right webhook if you want to use this approach.
There is also a simple buy and sell alert feature if you don't want to fully automate but still get alerts. These are available in the dropdown when creating an alert.
Almost every setting in this indicator has a tooltip added to it. So if any setting is not clear hover over the (?) icon on the right of the setting.
The backtest uses a 4% exposure per trade and a 10 point slippage. I did not include a commission cause I'm not personaly aware what the commissions are on most forex brokers. I'm only aware of minimal slippage to use in a backtest. Trading conditions vary per broker you use so always pay close attention to trading costs on your own broker. Use a full automation at your own risk and discretion and do proper backtesting.
MFI Strategy with Oversold Zone Exit and AveragingThis strategy is based on the Money Flow Index (MFI) and aims to enter a long position when the MFI exits an oversold zone, with specific rules for limit orders, stop-loss, and take-profit settings. Here's a detailed breakdown:
Key Components
1. **Money Flow Index (MFI)**: The strategy uses the MFI, a volume-weighted indicator, to gauge whether the market is in an oversold condition (default threshold of MFI < 20). Once the MFI rises above the oversold threshold, it signals a potential buying opportunity.
2. **Limit Order for Long Entry**: Instead of entering immediately after the oversold condition is cleared, the strategy places a limit order at a price slightly below the current price (by a user-defined percentage). This helps achieve a better entry price.
3. **Stop-Loss and Take-Profit**:
- **Stop-Loss**: A stop-loss is set to protect against significant losses, calculated as a percentage below the entry price.
- **Take-Profit**: A take-profit target is set as a percentage above the entry price to lock in gains.
4. **Order Cancellation**: If the limit order isn’t filled within a specific number of bars (default is 5 bars), it’s automatically canceled to avoid being filled at a potentially suboptimal price as market conditions change.
Strategy Workflow
1. **Identify Oversold Zone**: The strategy checks if the MFI falls below a defined oversold level (default is 20). Once this condition is met, the flag `inOversoldZone` is set to `true`.
2. **Wait for Exit from Oversold Zone**: When the MFI rises back above the oversold level, it’s considered a signal that the market is potentially recovering, and the strategy prepares to enter a position.
3. **Place Limit Order**: Upon exiting the oversold zone, the strategy places a limit order for a long position at a price below the current price, defined by the `Long Entry Percentage` parameter.
4. **Monitor Limit Order**: A counter (`barsSinceEntryOrder`) starts counting the bars since the limit order was placed. If the order isn’t filled within the specified number of bars, it’s canceled automatically.
5. **Set Stop-Loss and Take-Profit**: Once the order is filled, a stop-loss and take-profit are set based on user-defined percentages relative to the entry price.
6. **Exit Strategy**: The trade will close automatically when either the stop-loss or take-profit level is hit.
Advantages
- **Risk Management**: With configurable stop-loss and take-profit, the strategy ensures losses are limited while capturing profits at pre-defined levels.
- **Controlled Entry**: The use of a limit order below the current price helps secure a better entry point, enhancing risk-reward.
- **Oversold Exit Trigger**: Using the exit from an oversold zone as an entry condition can help catch reversals.
Disadvantages
- **Missed Entries**: If the limit order isn’t filled due to insufficient downward movement after the oversold signal, potential opportunities may be missed.
- **Dependency on MFI Sensitivity**: As the MFI is sensitive to both price and volume, its fluctuations might not always accurately represent oversold conditions.
Overall Purpose
The strategy is suited for traders who want to capture potential reversals after oversold conditions in the market, with a focus on precise entries, risk management, and an automated exit plan.
Customizable BTC Seasonality StrategyThis strategy leverages intraday seasonality effects in Bitcoin, specifically targeting hours of statistically significant returns during periods when traditional financial markets are closed. Padysak and Vojtko (2022) demonstrate that Bitcoin exhibits higher-than-average returns from 21:00 UTC to 23:00 UTC, a period in which all major global exchanges, such as the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), Tokyo Stock Exchange, and London Stock Exchange, are closed. The absence of competing trading activity from traditional markets during these hours appears to contribute to these statistically significant returns.
The strategy proceeds as follows:
Entry Time: A long position in Bitcoin is opened at a user-specified time, which defaults to 21:00 UTC, aligning with the beginning of the identified high-return window.
Holding Period: The position is held for two hours, capturing the positive returns typically observed during this period.
Exit Time: The position is closed at a user-defined time, defaulting to 23:00 UTC, allowing the strategy to exit as the favorable period concludes.
This simple seasonality strategy aims to achieve a 33% annualized return with a notably reduced volatility of 20.93% and maximum drawdown of -22.45%. The results suggest that investing only during these high-return hours is more stable and less risky than a passive holding strategy (Padysak & Vojtko, 2022).
References
Padysak, M., & Vojtko, R. (2022). Seasonality, Trend-following, and Mean reversion in Bitcoin.
SuperATR 7-Step Profit - Strategy [presentTrading] Long time no see!
█ Introduction and How It Is Different
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is a multi-layered trading approach that integrates adaptive Average True Range (ATR) calculations with momentum-based trend detection. What sets this strategy apart is its sophisticated 7-step take-profit mechanism, which combines four ATR-based exit levels and three fixed percentage levels. This hybrid approach allows traders to dynamically adjust to market volatility while systematically capturing profits in both long and short market positions.
Traditional trading strategies often rely on static indicators or single-layered exit strategies, which may not adapt well to changing market conditions. The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy addresses this limitation by:
- Using Adaptive ATR: Enhances the standard ATR by making it responsive to current market momentum.
- Incorporating Momentum-Based Trend Detection: Identifies stronger trends with higher probability of continuation.
- Employing a Multi-Step Take-Profit System: Allows for gradual profit-taking at predetermined levels, optimizing returns while minimizing risk.
BTCUSD 6hr Performance
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
The strategy revolves around detecting strong market trends and capitalizing on them using an adaptive ATR and momentum indicators. Below is a detailed breakdown of each component of the strategy.
🔶 1. True Range Calculation with Enhanced Volatility Detection
The True Range (TR) measures market volatility by considering the most significant price movements. The enhanced TR is calculated as:
TR = Max
Where:
High and Low are the current bar's high and low prices.
Previous Close is the closing price of the previous bar.
Abs denotes the absolute value.
Max selects the maximum value among the three calculations.
🔶 2. Momentum Factor Calculation
To make the ATR adaptive, the strategy incorporates a Momentum Factor (MF), which adjusts the ATR based on recent price movements.
Momentum = Close - Close
Stdev_Close = Standard Deviation of Close over n periods
Normalized_Momentum = Momentum / Stdev_Close (if Stdev_Close ≠ 0)
Momentum_Factor = Abs(Normalized_Momentum)
Where:
Close is the current closing price.
n is the momentum_period, a user-defined input (default is 7).
Standard Deviation measures the dispersion of closing prices over n periods.
Abs ensures the momentum factor is always positive.
🔶 3. Adaptive ATR Calculation
The Adaptive ATR (AATR) adjusts the traditional ATR based on the Momentum Factor, making it more responsive during volatile periods and smoother during consolidation.
Short_ATR = SMA(True Range, short_period)
Long_ATR = SMA(True Range, long_period)
Adaptive_ATR = /
Where:
SMA is the Simple Moving Average.
short_period and long_period are user-defined inputs (defaults are 3 and 7, respectively).
🔶 4. Trend Strength Calculation
The strategy quantifies the strength of the trend to filter out weak signals.
Price_Change = Close - Close
ATR_Multiple = Price_Change / Adaptive_ATR (if Adaptive_ATR ≠ 0)
Trend_Strength = SMA(ATR_Multiple, n)
🔶 5. Trend Signal Determination
If (Short_MA > Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength > Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = 1 (Strong Uptrend)
Elif (Short_MA < Long_MA) AND (Trend_Strength < -Trend_Strength_Threshold):
Trend_Signal = -1 (Strong Downtrend)
Else:
Trend_Signal = 0 (No Clear Trend)
🔶 6. Trend Confirmation with Price Action
Adaptive_ATR_SMA = SMA(Adaptive_ATR, atr_sma_period)
If (Trend_Signal == 1) AND (Close > Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Elif (Trend_Signal == -1) AND (Close < Short_MA) AND (Adaptive_ATR > Adaptive_ATR_SMA):
Trend_Confirmed = True
Else:
Trend_Confirmed = False
Local Performance
🔶 7. Multi-Step Take-Profit Mechanism
The strategy employs a 7-step take-profit system
█ Trade Direction
The SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy is designed to work in both long and short market conditions. By identifying strong uptrends and downtrends, it allows traders to capitalize on price movements in either direction.
Long Trades: Initiated when the market shows strong upward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
Short Trades: Initiated when the market exhibits strong downward momentum and the trend is confirmed.
█ Usage
To implement the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy:
1. Configure the Strategy Parameters:
- Adjust the short_period, long_period, and momentum_period to match the desired sensitivity.
- Set the trend_strength_threshold to control how strong a trend must be before acting.
2. Set Up the Multi-Step Take-Profit Levels:
- Define ATR multipliers and fixed percentage levels according to risk tolerance and profit goals.
- Specify the percentage of the position to close at each level.
3. Apply the Strategy to a Chart:
- Use the strategy on instruments and timeframes where it has been tested and optimized.
- Monitor the positions and adjust parameters as needed based on performance.
4. Backtest and Optimize:
- Utilize TradingView's backtesting features to evaluate historical performance.
- Adjust the default settings to optimize for different market conditions.
█ Default Settings
Understanding default settings is crucial for optimal performance.
Short Period (3): Affects the responsiveness of the short-term MA.
Effect: Lower values increase sensitivity but may produce more false signals.
Long Period (7): Determines the trend baseline.
Effect: Higher values reduce noise but may delay signals.
Momentum Period (7): Influences adaptive ATR and trend strength.
Effect: Shorter periods react quicker to price changes.
Trend Strength Threshold (0.5): Filters out weaker trends.
Effect: Higher thresholds yield fewer but stronger signals.
ATR Multipliers: Set distances for ATR-based exits.
Effect: Larger multipliers aim for bigger moves but may reduce hit rate.
Fixed TP Levels (%): Control profit-taking on smaller moves.
Effect: Adjusting these levels affects how quickly profits are realized.
Exit Percentages: Determine how much of the position is closed at each TP level.
Effect: Higher percentages reduce exposure faster, affecting risk and reward.
Adjusting these variables allows you to tailor the strategy to different market conditions and personal risk preferences.
By integrating adaptive indicators and a multi-tiered exit strategy, the SuperATR 7-Step Profit Strategy offers a versatile tool for traders seeking to navigate varying market conditions effectively. Understanding and adjusting the key parameters enables traders to harness the full potential of this strategy.
