[Tommy's Inflation Index]#Inflation #FEDWATCH #FA
Hello dear beloved Traders and Investors around the world! As you are aware, the world is on a fierce battle against the inflation caused by the massive QE (Quantitative Easing) after the pandemic. All we see on the news is about this very world-wide fiscal phenomenon and how central bank of each nation are controlling it with their monetary policies. Consequently, FED’s hawkish stance to maintain tightening position has suppressed our market. The interest rates have spiked more rapidly than ever absorbing all the cash in the market.
The confrontation between Inflation Vs. Recession currently is the most integral and yet complex issue that needs to be wisely dealt with. Anyhow, whether we want it or not, the markets are being directly impacted by the tension of this inflation war. Hence, traders and investors should keep our eyes on the circumstances and trends of macro-economy to possibly comprehend, forecast, and prepare for the upcoming events. Economic indexes and data are always to be regularly monitored. Especially, inflation related indexes such as CPI (Consumer Price Index), PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditure), PPI (Produce Price Index) and Michigan inflation have stronger interrelation with the market these days.
Tradingview provides many economic indexes and data as you can see in the economy sector of the symbol search. I have found it quite useful to track the macro economy analyzing these data. As globally, people generally refer to the YoY (Year over year) and MoM (Month over month) since the relative percentage change rate is the key factor. There are raw data of CPI, PCE, PPI as well as the core of all these etc. on Tradingview. But unfortunately, there are no YoY and MoM (Only a few) data. Don’t worry. Today is your lucky day because I made them myself for you.
Today I wish to share the “Inflation Index” that I have been working during the Korean’s New Year Holidays. It automatically computes and visualizes the CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE, PPI, and core PPI both YoY and MoM. It might show you wrong values or errors if your chart is not on Monthly timeframe. By the way core inflation is goods and services sectors, excluding food and energy. If you check ‘Core or not?’ box, it distinguishes the regular and core indexes. I am going to regularly update this inflation index on pine script, so go ahead. It’s all yours!
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#인플레이션 #연준 #FA
안녕하세요 트레이더 여러분 토미입니다!
과도한 양적완화 여파로 생긴 인플레이션 사태를 잡기 위해 미국 연준을 포함한 각국의 중앙은행은 이례적으로 강력한 긴축정책을 펼치고 있습니다. 특히 그 어느때보다 연준의 FOMC 회의 및 기준 금리 변경 사안에 영향을 미칠 만한 여러 경제 지표들에 시장이 민감하게 반응하는 실정입니다. 여기 계신 분이라면 요즘 CPI(소비자물가지수), PCE(개인소비지출물가지수), PPI(생산자물가지수), 그리고 미시간 물가지수 등 미국 인플레이션 관련 지수들이 얼마나 중요한지 알고 계시리라 생각합니다. 코인, 주식, 선물 등 종목을 불문하고 우리가 원하던 원하지 않던 애네들 발표될 때마다 시장이 미친듯이 요동치는 사실은 부정할 수 없습니다.
최근 트레이딩뷰도 많은 경제 지표들을 제공해주고 있습니다. 우리가 자주 보는 CPI, PCE, 그리고 PPI도 있지만 우리가 통상적으로 참고하는 인플레이션 수치는 해당 지표들의 YoY(전년대비)와 MoM(전월대비)입니다. 아쉽게 트레이딩뷰에는 YoY와 MoM 수치가 없어서 대부분 뭐 인베스팅닷컴이나 구글 이런 곳에서 보셨을 겁니다. 그래서 그냥 제가 트레이딩뷰에서도 쉽게 열람할 수 있게 만들어버렸습니다. CPI, PCE, PPI, 근원 CPI, 근원 PCE, 그리고 근원 PPI의 YoY와 MoM 지수를 쉽게 볼 수 있게 디자인했습니다. 설날에 집에 짱박혀서 코딩만 했네요. 차트 상단 지표(Indicator)에 Tommy’s Inflation Index 검색 후 클릭하시면 사용하실 수 있습니다. 참고로 차트가 월봉으로 되어있지 않으면 오류가 발생할 가능성이 높으니 이 점 양해바랍니다. 지표 즐겨찾기에 추가 해놓고 중간중간 필요할 때 켜서 보시면 될 것 같습니다. 이 지표는 제가 주기적으로 업데이트 할 예정이니 앞으로도 많은 관심 부탁드립니다.
여러분의 구독, 좋아요, 댓글은 저에게 큰 동기부여가 된답니다~
PCE
Swing Stock designed for Monthly/Yearly Trading This is a strategy tester designed around the most important data from FRED - Federal Reserve Economic Data
As input data, we have:
// Personal Consumption Expenditures
// Real Retail and Food Services Sales
// Leading Index for the United States
// All Employees: Total Nonfarm Payrolls
// Real Gross Domestic Product
// Gross Domestic Product
I adapted the long and short entry based on the GDP data, since they are most accurate in prediction compared to the rest.
However, feel free to test with other as well if you want.
For this test I compared previous GDP values, if they were higher than previous that represent a long signals, if they were smaller that represents a reversal=short signal.
From the tests performed we can see that GDP is highly accurate and overall as long as there is patience, profits are going to be make, sometimes even beat the index itself.
If you have any questions, let me know !
