Random Entry and ExitStrategy for Researching Whether It Is Possible to Earn Consistently by Opening Random Trades
The essence of the strategy lies in generating random entries and exits based on pseudorandom numbers. The generation of pseudorandom numbers is performed by the function random_number based on the value of the seed variable. The variables entry_threshold and exit_threshold control the frequency of entries and exits. Lower values mean less frequent trades. To increase the number of trades, increase the values of these variables.
The strategy was created as part of research into whether it is possible to earn randomly in financial markets by making chaotic actions of opening and closing trades. However, it adheres to a few rules: open only long positions (in the direction of the global trend) and do not use leverage. Positions are opened with the entire available capital.
100 generations of the strategy on the daily chart of the S&P 500 (seed 1-101) give 100% positive mathematical expectations. Similar results are observed on higher timeframes of assets that are in a global uptrend.
There is also the possibility of opening only short positions for the research. Note that the logic of the strategy is built in such a way that only one trading direction can operate simultaneously (either longs or shorts). On higher timeframes, random shorts show negative results. Positive mathematical expectations for short positions can be found on lower timeframes (1 min, etc.), where a large amount of noise is observed.
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Стратегия для исследования, можно ли стабильно зарабатывать при открытии случайных сделок
Суть стратегии заключается в генерации случайных входов и выходов на основе псевдослучайных чисел. Генерация псевдослучайных чисел происходит функцией random_number на основе значения переменной seed. Переменные entry_threshold и exit_threshold контролируют частоту входов и выходов. Более низкие значения означают менее частые сделки. Для увеличения количества сделок - увеличивайте значения переменных.
Стратегия создавалась в рамках исследования вопроса, можно ли случайным образом зарабатывать на фин. рынках, совершая хаотичные открытия и закрытия сделок. НО, придерживаясь нескольких правил: открывать только длинные позиции (в сторону глобального тренда) и не использовать кредитные плечи. Открытие позиций происходит на весь доступный капитал.
100 генераций стратегии на дневном графике S&P500 (seed 1-101) дают 100% положительных математических ожиданий. Похожие результаты наблюдаются на высоких таймфреймах активов, которые глобально находятся в восходящем тренде.
Также для исследования предусмотрена возможность открытия только коротких позиций. Обратите внимание, что логика стратегии построена таким образом, что одновременно может работать только одно направление торговли (либо лонги, либо шорты). На старших таймфреймах случайные шорты показывают негативные результаты. Положительное математическое ожидание для коротких позиций можно обнаружить на младших таймфреймах (1 min, etc), где наблюдается большое количество шумов.
Random
Flip a CoinHave you ever wanted a strategy that is completely random? Well here's the Flip-a-Coin strategy that has entirely random and unpredictable trades! With the randomiser to make it a truly unique strategy to you, and the ability to add martingale logic to the risk means you could either be making millions or losing it all in no time! Please do not trade with this! At best it is a good baseline for testing if your own strategy is better or worse than literally flipping a coin. Enjoy!
Random Entries Work!" tHe MaRkEtS aRe RaNdOm ", say moron academics.
The purpose of this study is to show that most markets are NOT random! Most markets show a clear bias where we can make such easy money, that a random number generator can do it.
=== HOW THE INDICATOR WORKS ===
The study will randomly enter the market
The study will randomly exit the market if in a trade
You can choose a Long Only, Short Only, or Bidirectional strategy
=== DEFAULT VALUES AND THEIR LOGIC ===
Percent Chance to Enter Per Bar: 10%
Percent Chance to Exit Per Bar: 3%
Direction: Long Only
Commission: 0
Each bar has a 10% chance to enter the market. Each bar has a 3% to exit the market . It will only enter long.
I included zero commission for simplification. It's a good exercise to include a commission/slippage to see just how much trading fees take from you.
=== TIPS ===
Increasing "Percent Chance to Exit" will shorten the time in a trade. You can see the "Avg # Bars In Trade" go down as you increase. If "Percent Chance to Exit" is too high, the study won't be in the market long enough to catch any movement, possibly exiting on the same bar most of the time.
If you're getting the red screen, that means the strategy lost so much money it went broke. Try reducing the percent equity on the Properties tab.
Switch the start year to avoid/minimize black swan events like the covid drop in 2020.
=== FINDINGS ===
Most markets lose money with a "Random" direction strategy.
Most markets lose ALL money with a "Short Only" strategy.
Most markets make money with a "Long Only" strategy.
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin (BTCUSD) and the NASDAQ (QQQ).
There are two popular memes right now: "Bitcoin to the moon" and "Stocks only go up". Both are seemingly true. Bitcoin was the best performing asset of the 2010's, gaining several billion percent in gains. The stock market is on a 100 year long uptrend. Why? BECAUSE FIAT CURRENCIES ALWAYS GO DOWN! This is inflation. If we measure the market in terms of others assets instead of fiat, the Long Only strategy doesn't work anymore (or works less well).
Try this strategy on: Bitcoin/GLD (BTCUSD/GLD), the Eurodollar (EURUSD), and the S&P 500 measured in gold (SPY/GLD).
Bitcoin measured in gold (BTCUSD/GLD) still works with a Long Only strategy because Bitcoin increased in value over both USD and gold.
The Eurodollar (EURUSD) generally loses money no matter what, especially if you add any commission. This makes sense as they are both fiat currencies with similar inflation schedules.
Gold and the S&P 500 have gained roughly the same amount since ~2000. Some years will show better results for a long strategy, while others will favor a short strategy. Now look at just SPY or GLD (which are both measured in USD by default!) and you'll see the same trend again: a Long Only strategy crushes even when entering and exiting randomly.
=== " JUST TELL ME WHAT TO DO, YOU NERD! " ===
Bulls always win and Bears always lose because fiat currencies go to zero.
You're not underperforming a random number generator, are you?
Coin Flipper Pro with strategy testerConverted the script "Coin Flipper Pro" into a Strategy. The same random "Coin Flip" trading fun with new features. Now users can run back test on the random trades and see how adjusting the risk to reward ratio affects the over all win rate and the profit of each trade. The Back test can be enabled or disabled in the settings along with the option to choose specific dates to run the test. Enjoy!
