RBI and GBI StrategyThis script is based on Dreadblitz original script but translated into English. It an indicator for Oliver Velez's Red Bar Ignored / Green Bar Ignored strategy.
Rbi
7-10 flattener tradeIn the budget speech for FY 2023, market borrowing of 14.95 lakh crore from the market. In the Feb MPC meeting, the RBI brought down its estimates of growth and inflation potentially signaling that economy is/will go through a demand slowdown.
Now in a slowing economy, the govt. finances will be affected. Therefore, to bring back the economy on the fiscal consolidation so that sovereign bond ratings are not hit, the Indian govt. must figure out a way
1. Lower its interest payments in the face of increasing public expenditure on creating public infrastructure (read roads/highways etc. ). One simple way is to go down the yield curve in lower maturities to bring down the interest costs.
Keeping in mind (1) above, it was not difficult to expect a borrowing schedule where the shorter tenors will form a bigger percentage of the net issuance by the government.
In fact, if you look at the issuance calendar for securities below the tenor of 10 yrs (which is 2,5,7 yrs), you will find that itself comprises of ~31% of total borrowings.
Therefore, due to increased pressure on the shorter tenors and relatively less pressure on 10 yr bond yield, we can expect the yields spreads to compress in 7-10 yr region of the yield curve.
This script is written to track the same yield spread compression across 7 & 10 yr tenor.
Relative Body Indicator by VtsRBI:
The EMA of the relative body (RB) of Japanese candles is evaluated.
The RB of a candle (my definition) is simply the ratio of the body with respect to its full length
and taken positive for bull candles and negative for bear candles:
e.g. a bull "marubozo" has RB=1 a bear "marubozo" has RB=-1;
a "doji" has RB=0.
This simple indicator grasps the essence of the market by filtering out a great deal of noise.
A flag can be selected to calculate its very basic binary version, where a bull candle counts as a one
and a bear candle counts as a minus one.
Enter (or exit) the market when the signal line crosses the base line.
When the market is choppy we have a kind of alternating bear and bull candles so that
RBI is FLAT and usually close to zero.
Therefore avoid entering the market when RBI is FLAT and INSIDE the Exclusion level.
The exclusion level is to be set by hand: go back in history and check when market was choppy; a good
way to set it is to frame the oscillations of RBI whe price was choppy.
RBI is more effective when an EMA of price is used as filtering. I found EMA(13) to be
a decent filter: go long when base crosses signal upwards AND closing price is above EMA(13);
same concept for going short.
As any other indicator, use it with responsibility: THERE CAN'T BE A SINGLE MAGIC INDICATOR winning
all trades.
Above all, have fun.
Vitelot/Yanez/Vts March 31, 2019
Note: I'm not aware of any indicator like this. My apologies to whoever had this idea before me.
