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Risk Matrix [QuantraSystems]Risk Matrix The Risk Matrix is a sophisticated tool that aggregates a variety of fundamental inputs, primarily external (non-crypto) market data is used to assess investor risk appetite. By combining external macroeconomic factors and proxies for liquidity data with specific signals from the cryptomarket - the Risk Matrix provides a holistic view of market risk conditions. These insights are designed to help traders and investors make informed decisions on when to adopt a risk-on or risk-off approach. Core Concept The Risk Matrix functions as a dynamic risk assessment tool that integrates both fundamental and technical market indicators to generate an aggregated Z-score. This score helps traders to identify where the market is in a risk-off or risk-on state, The system provides both binary risk signals and a more nuanced “risk seasonality” mode for deeper analysis. Key Features Global Liquidity Aggregate - The Liquidity score is a custom measure of global liquidity, built by combining a variety of traditional financial metrics. These include data from central bank balance sheets, reverse repo operations and credit availability. This data is sourced from organizations such as the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, and the People’s Bank of China. The purpose of this aggregate is to gauge how much liquidity is available in the global financial system - which often correlates with risk sentiment. Rising liquidity tends to boost risk-on appetite, while liquidity contractions signal increased caution (risk-off) in the markets. The data sources used in this global liquidity aggregate include: - U.S. Commercial Bank Credit data - Federal Reserve balance sheet and reverse repo operations - Liquidity from major central banks including the Fed, Bank of Japan, ECB, and PBoC - Asset performance from major global financial indices such as the S&P 500, TLT, DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), MOVE (bond market volatility), and commodities like gold and oil. Other key Z-scores (measured individually) - The Risk Matrix also incorporates other major Z-scores that represent different facets of the financial markets: - Collateral Risk - A measure of US bond volatility, where higher values indicate higher interest rate risk - leading to potential market instability and cautious market behaviors. - Stablecoin Dominance - The dominance of stablecoins in the crypto markets - which can signal risk aversion the total capital allocated to stables increases relative to other cryptocurrencies. - US Currency Strength - The U.S. Dollar Index Z-score reflects currency market strength, with higher values typically indicating risk aversion as investors sell more volatile assets and flock to the dollar. - Trans-pacific Monetary Bias - Signals capital flow and monetary trends that link between the East and West, heavily influencing global risk sentiment. - Total - A measure of the total cryptocurrency market cap, signaling broader risk sentiment with the crypto market. Neural Network Synthesis - The NNSYNTH component adds a machine learning inspired layer to the Risk Matrix. This custom indicator synthesizes inputs from various technical indicators (such as RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, and others) to generate a composite signal that reflects the health of the cryptomarket. While highly complex in its design, the NNSYNTH ultimately helps detect market shifts early by synthesizing multiple signals into one cohesive output. This score is particularly useful for gauging momentum and identifying potential turning points in market trends. Because the NNSYNTH is a closed source indicator, and it is included here, the Risk Matrix by extension is a closed source indicator. How it Works Z-score Aggregation - The Risk Matrix computes a final risk score by aggregating several Z-scores from different asset classes and data sources, all of which contribute proportionally to the overall market risk assessment. Each input is equally weighted - normalization allows for direct comparisons across global liquidity trends, currency fluctuations, bond market volatility and crypto market conditions. Furthermore, this system employs multi-calibration aggregation - where each individual matrix is itself an aggregate of multiple Z-scores derived from various timeframes. This ensures that each matrix captures a distinct average across different time horizons before being combined into the overall Risk Matrix. This layered, multi timeframe approach enhances the precision and robustness of the final Z-score. Risk-On / Risk-Off Mode - The system’s binary mode provides a clear Risk On and Off signal. This nature of this signal is determined by the behavior of the Z-score relative to the midline, or Standard Deviation Bands, depending on specific conditions: Risk-On is signaled when the aggregated final Z-score crosses above 0. However, in extreme oversold conditions, Risk-On can trigger early if the upper standard deviation band falls below the zero line. In such cases, the Risk-On signal is triggered when the z-score crosses the upper standard deviation band - without waiting to cross the midline. Risk-Off is signaled when the final Z-score moves below 0. Similarly, Risk-Off can also be triggered early if the lower standard deviation band rises above the midline. In this instance, Risk-Off is triggered when the Z-score crosses below the lower band. Risk Seasonality Mode - This mode offers a more gradual transition between risk states, measuring the change in the Z-score to visualize the shifts in risk appetite over time. It's useful for traders seeking to understand broader market cycles and risk phases. The seasonality view breaks down the market into the following phases: Risk-On - High risk appetite where risk/cyclical markets are generally bullish. Weakening - Markets showing signs of cooling off, here the higher beta assets tend to sell off first. Risk-Off - Investors pull back, and bearish sentiment prevails. Recovery - Signs of bottoming out, potential for market re-entry. Component Matrices - Each individual Z-score is visualized as part of the component matrices - scaled to a 3 Sigma range. These component matrices allow traders to view how each data source is contributing to the overall risk assessment in real time - offering transparency and granularity. Visuals and UI Main Risk Matrix - The aggregated Z-Score is displayed saliently in the main risk matrix. Traders and investors can quickly see what season the Risk Matrix is signaling and adjust their strategies accordingly. Overview Table - A detailed overview table shows the current confirmed Z-scores for each component, along with values from 2, and 3 bars back. This helps traders spot trends and the rate of change (RoC) between signals, offering additional insights for shorter-term risk management. Customizability - Users can customize the visual elements of the matrix, including color palettes, table sizes, and positions. This allows for optimal integration into any trader’s existing workspace. Usage Summary The Risk Matrix is an incredibly versatile tool. It is especially valuable as a means of achieving a cross-market view of risk, incorporating both crypto-specific and macroeconomic factors. Some key use cases include: Adjusting Capital Allocation Based on Risk Seasons - Traders can use the Risk Matrix to adjust their capital allocation dynamically. During Risk-On periods, they might increase exposure to long positions, capitalizing on stronger market conditions. Conversely, during Risk-Off periods, traders could reduce or hedge long positions and potentially scale up short positions or move into safer assets. Complementing Other Trading Systems - The Risk Matrix can work alongside other technical systems to provide context to market moves. For instance, a trend-following strategy might suggest an entry, but the Risk Matrix could be used to verify whether the broader market conditions support this trade. If the Matrix is in a Risk-Off period, a trader might opt for more conservative trade sizes or avoid the trade entirely. This flexibility allows traders to adjust their strategies and portfolio risk dynamically, enhancing decision making based on broader market conditions - as indicated by external macroeconomic factors, liquidity, and risk sentiment. Important Note The Risk Matrix always uses the most up-to-date data available, ensuring analysis reflects the latest market conditions and macroeconomic inputs. In rare cases, governments or financial institutions revise past data - and the Risk Matrix will adjust accordingly. This behavior can only be seen in the Liquidity Matrix. and can affect the final score. While this is uncommon, it highlights the benefit of using a system that adapts in real-time, incorporating the most accurate and current information to enhance decision making processes.
Pine Script™ indicator
by QuantraSystems
5
Stablecoin Dominance [LuxAlgo]The Stablecoin Dominance tool displays the evolution of the relative supply dominance of major stablecoins such as USDT, USDC, BUSD, DAI, and TUSD. Users can disable supported stablecoins to only show the supply dominance relative to the ones enabled. 🔶 USAGE The stablecoin space is subject to constant change due to new arriving stablecoins, regulation, collapse of coins...etc. Studying the evolution in supply dominance can help see the effect that certain events can have on the stablecoin sphere. This dominance graph is displayed over the user price chart to easily observe the correlation between stablecoin dominances and market prices. Users can still move the tool to a new pane below if having it on the price chart is not desired. 🔶 DETAILS Supported stablecoins include: Tether (USDT) USD Coin (USDC) Binance USD (BUSD) Dai (DAI) TrueUSD (TUSD) Supply dominance of a stablecoin is calculated by dividing the total supply of that stablecoin by the total supply of all enabled stablecoins. That is for N stablecoins: sd(stablecoin A) = supply(stablecoin 1) / [supply(stablecoin 1) + supply(stablecoin 2) + supply(stablecoin 3) + ... + supply(stablecoin N) 🔹 Display Users can control the fill style of the displayed areas, with "Gradient" enabled by default. Using "Solid" will use a solid color for each area: This can improve the performance of the script. Selecting "None" will not display areas. 🔶 SETTINGS Fill Style: Fill style of the areas between each returned supply dominance. "Gradient" will color the areas using a gradient, while "Solid" will use a solid color. Stablecoins List: List of stablecoins used for the supply dominance calculation, disabling one stablecoin will exclude it from all calculations.
Pine Script™ indicator
by LuxAlgo
1
Blockunity Stablecoin Liquidity (BSL)Monitor the liquidity of the crypto market by tracking the capitalizations of the major Stablecoins. Stablecoin Liquidity (BSL) is an ideal tool for visualizing data on major Stablecoins. The number of Stablecoins in circulation is one of the best indices of liquidity within the crypto market. It’s an important metric to keep an eye on, as an increase in the number of Stablecoins in circulation offers a great opportunity to see cryptoasset prices rise. The tool’s multiple on-board display modes enable analysis of its data in the best possible conditions. The Idea The goal is to provide the community with the ideal tool to visualize the liquidity of the crypto market, via the state of the market capitalizations of the major Stablecoins. How to Use The tool is very easy to use and interpret. First of all, let's distinguish two main elements: The chart as 3 distinct display modes to let you observe data in the best possible conditions. There is a panel that summarizes the market capitalizations of the main Stablecoins. Display Mode: Cumulative In Cumulative mode (default), the different capitalizations are displayed one on top of the other with colored bands. You can see that when the number of Stablecoins in circulation increases, crypto asset prices enter an uptrend. And if the liquidity of Stablecoins dries up, the trend will become bearish. Display Mode: Aggregated Aggregated mode displays a single line, which is the sum of the different capitalizations, varying between green and red depending on the state of this data according to its moving average declared in the 'Aggregated MA Lengh' field. You can thus easily see trend changes and therefore opportunities to enter or exit the crypto market. Display Mode: Independent The Independent mode also displays the different capitalizations, but detached from each other with labels. This display mode is particularly interesting for studying transfers from one Stablecoin to another, as can be seen below. Other Settings You can choose whether or not to include each of the Stablecoins data, and configure their display color. Note that in 'Cumulative' display mode, the data is taken into account even if the box is unchecked. How it Works The tool works in a simple way: We take the market capitalization data of the Stablecoins that interest us, then we process them according to the different display modes. Let us know if you would like other ways of visualizing this data!
Pine Script™ indicator
by Blockunity
3
USDT+USDC+BUSD Market CapThis Pine Script indicator visualizes the combined market capitalization of three prominent stablecoins: USDT, USDC, and BUSD, on a daily basis. It fetches the daily closing market caps of these stablecoins and sums them. The resulting line graph is displayed in its own separate pane below the main price chart. The line is color-coded: green on days when the market cap is increasing compared to the previous day, and red when it's decreasing.
Pine Script™ indicator
by PCPR1NCIPAL
2
Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator (SSRO) is a cryptocurrency indicator designed for mean reversion analysis and sentiment assessment. It calculates the ratio of CRYPTO:BTCUSD 's market capitalization to the sum of stablecoins' market capitalization and z-scores the result, offering insights into market sentiment and potential turning points. Methodology: The SSRO is calculated as follows- method ssro(float src, array stblsrc, int len) => float ssr = src / stblsrc.sum() // Source of the underlying divided by the sum of stablecoin sources (ssr - ta.sma(ssr, len)) / ta.stdev(ssr, len) // Z-Score Transformed This ratio is Z-Scored to provide a standardized measure, allowing users to identify periods of market fear or greed based on the allocation of capital between the underlying and Stablecoins ( CRYPTOCAP:USDT , CRYPTOCAP:USDC , CRYPTO:TUSD , CRYPTOCAP:BUSD , CRYPTOCAP:DAI , CRYPTOCAP:USDD , CRYPTOCAP:FRAX ). The z-scored values indicate potential areas of discount (buying opportunities) or premium (selling opportunities) relative to historical patterns. Customization: Underlying Asset: SSRO is customizable to different underlying assets, offering a versatile tool for various cryptocurrencies. Calculation Length: Users can adjust the length of the calculation, tailoring the indicator to short or long-term analysis. Visualization: SSRO can be displayed as candles, providing a visual representation of premium and discount areas. Interpretation: Market Sentiment: Lower SSRO values may indicate market fear, suggesting a preference for stablecoins as a relatively safer haven for capital. Conversely, higher values may suggest market greed, as more capital is allocated to the underlying asset. Utility and Use Cases: 1. Mean Reversion Analysis: SSRO identifies potential mean reversion opportunities, guiding traders on optimal entry and exit points. 2. Sentiment Analysis: The indicator provides insights into market sentiment, aiding traders in understanding market dynamics. 3. Macro Analysis: The majority of cryptos follow \ correlate to CRYPTO:BTCUSD , Therefore by assessing premium and discount areas of CRYPTO:BTCUSD relative to the chosen underlying asset, users gain insights into potential market tops and bottoms. 4. Divergence Analysis: SSRO divergence from price trends can signal potential reversals, providing traders with additional confirmation for their decisions. The Stablecoin Supply Ratio Oscillator is a valuable tool for cryptocurrency traders, offering a nuanced perspective on market sentiment and mean reversion opportunities. Its customization options and visual representation make it a versatile and powerful addition to the crypto analyst's toolkit.
Pine Script™ indicator
by EliCobra
13
Stablecoin supplies [USD bn]This script shows crypto market inflows/outflows by showing the USD stablecoin supplies, using data from glassnode.com : GLASSNODE:BUSD_SUPPLY GLASSNODE:USDT_SUPPLY GLASSNODE:USDC_SUPPLY Using a simple 20 EMA, the line will change color showing stablecoin inflow or outflow. Traders can consider stable coin inflows (green) as bullish for Bitcoin price, while stable coin outflows (red) should be considered bearish for price.
Pine Script™ indicator
by tedtalksmacro
6
StableCoin MC vs Total MC by Crypto5Max In this indicator you will find the sum of all stable coins (market cap) divided by the total crypto market cap. I believe there's a positive correlation between stable coins issuance and BTC's(and other coins) price appreciation. Or shortly put, to me the rising levels of stable coins represent increased levels of buying power (and adoption) waiting on the sidelines. Here, I am taking the total market cap of all stable coins and dividing it by the total crypto market cap to get a ratio. Note, only ~85% of all stable coins are calculated (rest are not on TV), however, it should still be a fairly good representation. Some of the stable coins are already locked in smart contracts for yield farming and what not. I'd also say, there's interesting 2-year long channel that's developing currently. That said, take this indicator with a grain of salt as we still have a limited set of data. Yours truly
Pine Script™ indicator
by FiveMillionMax
9
3GBH - MoneyMeter (Stablecoins RSI)This indicator tracks the Market Caps of - USDT - USDC - DAI The data is presented on the RSI. The intent of this indicator is to help determine whether money is flowing into the market or not. If the major stablecoins are green, money is entering the market. The opposite applies, if red, money is leaving the market. This is another tool which may provide help to build confluence in your trading or analysis. ----- Default length is set to 168 to see the momentum of the past 7 days on the 1-hour timeframe.
Pine Script™ indicator
by Clancy3gbh
1