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Standard Deviation

STD-Filterd, R-squared Adaptive T3 w/ Dynamic Zones [Loxx]STD-Filterd, R-squared Adaptive T3 w/ Dynamic Zones is a standard deviation filtered R-squared Adaptive T3 moving average with dynamic zones. What is the T3 moving average? Better Moving Averages Tim Tillson November 1, 1998 Tim Tillson is a software project manager at Hewlett-Packard, with degrees in Mathematics and Computer Science. He has privately traded options and equities for 15 years. Introduction "Digital filtering includes the process of smoothing, predicting, differentiating, integrating, separation of signals, and removal of noise from a signal. Thus many people who do such things are actually using digital filters without realizing that they are; being unacquainted with the theory, they neither understand what they have done nor the possibilities of what they might have done." This quote from R. W. Hamming applies to the vast majority of indicators in technical analysis . Moving averages, be they simple, weighted, or exponential, are lowpass filters; low frequency components in the signal pass through with little attenuation, while high frequencies are severely reduced. "Oscillator" type indicators (such as MACD , Momentum, Relative Strength Index ) are another type of digital filter called a differentiator. Tushar Chande has observed that many popular oscillators are highly correlated, which is sensible because they are trying to measure the rate of change of the underlying time series, i.e., are trying to be the first and second derivatives we all learned about in Calculus. We use moving averages (lowpass filters) in technical analysis to remove the random noise from a time series, to discern the underlying trend or to determine prices at which we will take action. A perfect moving average would have two attributes: It would be smooth, not sensitive to random noise in the underlying time series. Another way of saying this is that its derivative would not spuriously alternate between positive and negative values. It would not lag behind the time series it is computed from. Lag, of course, produces late buy or sell signals that kill profits. The only way one can compute a perfect moving average is to have knowledge of the future, and if we had that, we would buy one lottery ticket a week rather than trade! Having said this, we can still improve on the conventional simple, weighted, or exponential moving averages. Here's how: Two Interesting Moving Averages We will examine two benchmark moving averages based on Linear Regression analysis. In both cases, a Linear Regression line of length n is fitted to price data. I call the first moving average ILRS, which stands for Integral of Linear Regression Slope. One simply integrates the slope of a linear regression line as it is successively fitted in a moving window of length n across the data, with the constant of integration being a simple moving average of the first n points. Put another way, the derivative of ILRS is the linear regression slope. Note that ILRS is not the same as a SMA ( simple moving average ) of length n, which is actually the midpoint of the linear regression line as it moves across the data. We can measure the lag of moving averages with respect to a linear trend by computing how they behave when the input is a line with unit slope. Both SMA (n) and ILRS(n) have lag of n/2, but ILRS is much smoother than SMA . Our second benchmark moving average is well known, called EPMA or End Point Moving Average. It is the endpoint of the linear regression line of length n as it is fitted across the data. EPMA hugs the data more closely than a simple or exponential moving average of the same length. The price we pay for this is that it is much noisier (less smooth) than ILRS, and it also has the annoying property that it overshoots the data when linear trends are present. However, EPMA has a lag of 0 with respect to linear input! This makes sense because a linear regression line will fit linear input perfectly, and the endpoint of the LR line will be on the input line. These two moving averages frame the tradeoffs that we are facing. On one extreme we have ILRS, which is very smooth and has considerable phase lag. EPMA has 0 phase lag, but is too noisy and overshoots. We would like to construct a better moving average which is as smooth as ILRS, but runs closer to where EPMA lies, without the overshoot. A easy way to attempt this is to split the difference, i.e. use (ILRS(n)+EPMA(n))/2. This will give us a moving average (call it IE /2) which runs in between the two, has phase lag of n/4 but still inherits considerable noise from EPMA. IE /2 is inspirational, however. Can we build something that is comparable, but smoother? Figure 1 shows ILRS, EPMA, and IE /2. Filter Techniques Any thoughtful student of filter theory (or resolute experimenter) will have noticed that you can improve the smoothness of a filter by running it through itself multiple times, at the cost of increasing phase lag. There is a complementary technique (called twicing by J.W. Tukey) which can be used to improve phase lag. If L stands for the operation of running data through a low pass filter, then twicing can be described by: L' = L(time series) + L(time series - L(time series)) That is, we add a moving average of the difference between the input and the moving average to the moving average. This is algebraically equivalent to: 2L-L(L) This is the Double Exponential Moving Average or DEMA , popularized by Patrick Mulloy in TASAC (January/February 1994). In our taxonomy, DEMA has some phase lag (although it exponentially approaches 0) and is somewhat noisy, comparable to IE /2 indicator. We will use these two techniques to construct our better moving average, after we explore the first one a little more closely. Fixing Overshoot An n-day EMA has smoothing constant alpha=2/(n+1) and a lag of (n-1)/2. Thus EMA (3) has lag 1, and EMA (11) has lag 5. Figure 2 shows that, if I am willing to incur 5 days of lag, I get a smoother moving average if I run EMA (3) through itself 5 times than if I just take EMA (11) once. This suggests that if EPMA and DEMA have 0 or low lag, why not run fast versions (eg DEMA (3)) through themselves many times to achieve a smooth result? The problem is that multiple runs though these filters increase their tendency to overshoot the data, giving an unusable result. This is because the amplitude response of DEMA and EPMA is greater than 1 at certain frequencies, giving a gain of much greater than 1 at these frequencies when run though themselves multiple times. Figure 3 shows DEMA (7) and EPMA(7) run through themselves 3 times. DEMA^3 has serious overshoot, and EPMA^3 is terrible. The solution to the overshoot problem is to recall what we are doing with twicing: DEMA (n) = EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n)) The second term is adding, in effect, a smooth version of the derivative to the EMA to achieve DEMA . The derivative term determines how hot the moving average's response to linear trends will be. We need to simply turn down the volume to achieve our basic building block: EMA (n) + EMA (time series - EMA (n))*.7; This is algebraically the same as: EMA (n)*1.7-EMA( EMA (n))*.7; I have chosen .7 as my volume factor, but the general formula (which I call "Generalized Dema") is: GD (n,v) = EMA (n)*(1+v)-EMA( EMA (n))*v, Where v ranges between 0 and 1. When v=0, GD is just an EMA , and when v=1, GD is DEMA . In between, GD is a cooler DEMA . By using a value for v less than 1 (I like .7), we cure the multiple DEMA overshoot problem, at the cost of accepting some additional phase delay. Now we can run GD through itself multiple times to define a new, smoother moving average T3 that does not overshoot the data: T3(n) = GD ( GD ( GD (n))) In filter theory parlance, T3 is a six-pole non-linear Kalman filter. Kalman filters are ones which use the error (in this case (time series - EMA (n)) to correct themselves. In Technical Analysis , these are called Adaptive Moving Averages; they track the time series more aggressively when it is making large moves. What is R-squared Adaptive? One tool available in forecasting the trendiness of the breakout is the coefficient of determination ( R-squared ), a statistical measurement. The R-squared indicates linear strength between the security's price (the Y - axis) and time (the X - axis). The R-squared is the percentage of squared error that the linear regression can eliminate if it were used as the predictor instead of the mean value. If the R-squared were 0.99, then the linear regression would eliminate 99% of the error for prediction versus predicting closing prices using a simple moving average . R-squared is used here to derive a T3 factor used to modify price before passing price through a six-pole non-linear Kalman filter. What are Dynamic Zones? As explained in "Stocks & Commodities V15:7 (306-310): Dynamic Zones by Leo Zamansky, Ph .D., and David Stendahl" Most indicators use a fixed zone for buy and sell signals. Here’ s a concept based on zones that are responsive to past levels of the indicator. One approach to active investing employs the use of oscillators to exploit tradable market trends. This investing style follows a very simple form of logic: Enter the market only when an oscillator has moved far above or below traditional trading lev- els. However, these oscillator- driven systems lack the ability to evolve with the market because they use fixed buy and sell zones. Traders typically use one set of buy and sell zones for a bull market and substantially different zones for a bear market. And therein lies the problem. Once traders begin introducing their market opinions into trading equations, by changing the zones, they negate the system’s mechanical nature. The objective is to have a system automatically define its own buy and sell zones and thereby profitably trade in any market — bull or bear. Dynamic zones offer a solution to the problem of fixed buy and sell zones for any oscillator-driven system. An indicator’s extreme levels can be quantified using statistical methods. These extreme levels are calculated for a certain period and serve as the buy and sell zones for a trading system. The repetition of this statistical process for every value of the indicator creates values that become the dynamic zones. The zones are calculated in such a way that the probability of the indicator value rising above, or falling below, the dynamic zones is equal to a given probability input set by the trader. To better understand dynamic zones, let's first describe them mathematically and then explain their use. The dynamic zones definition: Find V such that: For dynamic zone buy: P{X <= V}=P1 For dynamic zone sell: P{X >= V}=P2 where P1 and P2 are the probabilities set by the trader, X is the value of the indicator for the selected period and V represents the value of the dynamic zone. The probability input P1 and P2 can be adjusted by the trader to encompass as much or as little data as the trader would like. The smaller the probability, the fewer data values above and below the dynamic zones. This translates into a wider range between the buy and sell zones. If a 10% probability is used for P1 and P2, only those data values that make up the top 10% and bottom 10% for an indicator are used in the construction of the zones. Of the values, 80% will fall between the two extreme levels. Because dynamic zone levels are penetrated so infrequently, when this happens, traders know that the market has truly moved into overbought or oversold territory. Calculating the Dynamic Zones The algorithm for the dynamic zones is a series of steps. First, decide the value of the lookback period t. Next, decide the value of the probability Pbuy for buy zone and value of the probability Psell for the sell zone. For i=1, to the last lookback period, build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. Then find the value Vi1 such that the probability of the price less than or equal to Vi1 during the lookback period i is equal to Pbuy. Find the value Vi2 such that the probability of the price greater or equal to Vi2 during the lookback period i is equal to Psell. The sequence of Vi1 for all periods gives the buy zone. The sequence of Vi2 for all periods gives the sell zone. In the algorithm description, we have: Build the distribution f(x) of the price during the lookback period i. The distribution here is empirical namely, how many times a given value of x appeared during the lookback period. The problem is to find such x that the probability of a price being greater or equal to x will be equal to a probability selected by the user. Probability is the area under the distribution curve. The task is to find such value of x that the area under the distribution curve to the right of x will be equal to the probability selected by the user. That x is the dynamic zone. Included: Bar coloring Signals Alerts Loxx's Expanded Source Types
Pine Script™ indicator
by loxx
Visible Range Mean Deviation Histogram [LuxAlgo]This script displays a histogram from the mean and standard deviation of the visible price values on the chart. Bin counting is done relative to high/low prices instead of counting the price values within each bin, returning a smoother histogram as a result. Settings Bins Per Side: Number of bins computed above and below the price mean Deviation Multiplier: Standard deviation multiplier Style Relative: Determines whether the bins length is relative to the maximum bin count, with a length controlled with the width settings to the left. Bin Colors: Bin/POC Lines colors Show POCs: Shows point of controls Usage Histograms are generally used to estimate the underlying distribution of a series of observations, their construction is generally done taking into account the overall price range. The proposed histogram construct N intervals above*below the mean of the visible price, with each interval having a size of: σ × Mult / N , where σ is the standard deviation and N the number of Bins per side and is determined by the user. The standard deviation multipliers are highlighted at the left side of each bin. A high bin count reflects a higher series of observations laying within that specific interval, this can be useful to highlight ranging price areas. POCs highlight the most significant bins and can be used as potential support/resistances.
Pine Script™ indicator
by LuxAlgo
18
Standard-Deviation Adaptive Smoother MA [Loxx]Standard-Deviation Adaptive Smoother MA is a Smoother moving average with standard deviation adaptivity. What is the Smoother Moving Average? The Smoother filter is a faster-reacting smoothing technique which generates considerably less lag than the SMMA ( Smoothed Moving Average ). It gives earlier signals but can also create false signals due to its earlier reactions. This filter is sometimes wrongly mistaken for the superior Jurik Smoothing algorithm. Included: Bar coloring
Pine Script™ indicator
by loxx
Williams Vix Fix Bottoms and TopsThis indicator uses the very popular Williams Vix Fix for Bottoms by Chris Moody but not only does it search for bottoms, it can also be switch to work for tops for those who look to short the market. I've also added in a few options like flipping the indicator, color adjustments on the settings page, as well as cut a few of the options I feel did not need to be in which cluttered the screen when the settings were opened. In his later revisions of the Williams Vix Fix, CM took out the functions which draw the high/low ranges as well as the standard deviation which is what this indicator uses to show entry points. I have added options back on to draw these, I think it's useful. To be honest, I have not messed around with the number settings much so I am not sure how adjusting the look back range or going for smaller / bigger percentage changes would change how well the indicator works. It seems to work very well at its default settings. With the Bollinger Band deviation, you have to remember that it looks back at the set amount of candles (20 by default) and uses those for the standard deviation: 1 dev = 68%, 2 dev = 95%, 3 dev = 99.7% These percentages mean that at 2 dev, 95% of the last 20 candles will remain within the boundaries of the Bollinger Bands. Three tends to be too high, one is usually too low. Two is pretty good. The lowest percentile option probably won't change much other than bring up the bottom line which doesn't effect the alerts or signals, just something to observe. The highest percentile option makes a difference similar to the stand deviation and Bollinger Band. The higher you put it, the less likely it will get triggered but the more reliant it of a signal it should be. As always, I have left notes throughout the code and I did leave in the code that was original but commented it out as I don't believe it's worth having. I like to have the high/lows drawn, as well as the standard deviation. Then I find that the filtered entries are most accurate signals to follow. Simple entry is hit or miss, Aggressive entry is always early but sometimes that's not a great thing.
Pine Script™ indicator
by theehoganator
22
[Sidders]Std. Deviation from Mean/MA (Z-score)This indicator visualizes in a straight forward way the distance price is away from the mean in absolute standard deviations (Z-score) over a certain lookback period (can be configured). Additionally I've included a moving average of the distance, the MA type can be configured in the settings. Personally using this indicator for some of my algo mean reversion strategies. Price reaching the extreme treshold (can be configured in settings, standard is 3) could be seen as a point where price will revert to the mean. I've included alerts for when price crosses into extreme areas, as well as alerts for when crosses back into 'normal' territory again. Both are also plotted on the indicator through background coloring/shapes. Since I've learned so much from other developers I've decided to open source the code. Let me know if you have any ideas on how to improve, I'll see if I can implement them. Enjoy!
Pine Script™ indicator
by Sidders
1
Volatility Ratio Adaptive RSX [Loxx]Volatility Ratio Adaptive RSX this indicator adds volatility ratio adapting and speed value to RSX in order to make it more responsive to market condition changes at the times of high volatility, and to make it smoother in the times of low volatility What is RSX? RSI is a very popular technical indicator, because it takes into consideration market speed, direction and trend uniformity. However, the its widely criticized drawback is its noisy (jittery) appearance. The Jurik RSX retains all the useful features of RSI, but with one important exception: the noise is gone with no added lag. Included: -Toggle on/off bar coloring
Pine Script™ indicator
by loxx
SigmaSpikes Background Highlight [vnhilton]SigmaSpikes is an indicator created by Adam H Grimes. It's a volatility indicator which applies a standard deviation measure on candles for a set period of time, in order to find big candles/moves relative to the other candles. These big moves could be the outcome of setups being traded by market players, large market orders put in by big money players, &/or HFT algorithms reacting to events (usually fundamental events). These big moves can also be seen as inefficient as it doesn't fit in with the mostly efficient market - this is very similar to gaps of which price would want to fill as they're inefficient, in order to "restore order" to the market. This indicator attempts to give better information at a glance, by highlighting the background of candles that have sigma spikes over the set standard deviation threshold. In the chart snapshot image above featuring EURUSD, we can see at 24/06/22 3PM BST, a big move has occurred (highlighted in green showing upward move) leaving an inefficiency area that needs to be filled. The high end of the inefficiency area was reached in the following candle as there was no gap between that candle's open & the previous big candle's close. The low end of the inefficiency area was finally reached almost 4 hours later, at 6:55PM BST.
Pine Script™ indicator
by vnhilton
STD Stepped Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter MTF w/ Alerts [Loxx]STD Stepped Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter MTF w/ Alerts is the traditional Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter but with stepped price levels, access to multiple time frames, and alerts. What is Ehlers Optimal Tracking Filter? From "OPTIMAL TRACKING FILTERS" by John Ehlers: "Dr. R.E. Kalman introduced his concept of optimum estimation in 1960. Since that time, his technique has proven to be a powerful and practical tool. The approach is particularly well suited for optimizing the performance of modern terrestrial and space navigation systems. Many traders not directly involved in system analysis have heard about Kalman filtering and have expressed an interest in learning more about it for market applications. Although attempts have been made to provide simple, intuitive explanations, none has been completely successful. Almost without exception, descriptions have become mired in the jargon and state-space notation of the “cult”. Surprisingly, in spite of the obscure-looking mathematics (the most impenetrable of which can be found in Dr. Kalman’s original paper), Kalman filtering is a fairly direct and simple concept. In the spirit of being pragmatic, we will not deal with the full-blown matrix equations in this description and we will be less than rigorous in the application to trading. Rigorous application requires knowledge of the probability distributions of the statistics. Nonetheless we end with practically useful results. We will depart from the classical approach by working backwards from Exponential Moving Averages. In this process, we introduce a way to create a nearly zero lag moving average. From there, we will use the concept of a Tracking Index that optimizes the filter tracking for the given uncertainty in price movement and the uncertainty in our ability to measure it." Included: -Standard deviation stepping filter, price is required to exceed XX deviations before the moving average line shifts direction -Selection of filtering based on source price, the moving average, or both; you can also set the Filter deviations to 0 for no filtering at all -Toggle on/off bar coloring -Toggle on/off signals -Long/Short alerts
Pine Script™ indicator
by loxx
6
Jurik Filter [Loxx]Jurik Filter is a Jurik-filtered moving average that acts as both a baseline and a support and resistance indicator What is Jurik Volty used in the Juirk Filter? One of the lesser known qualities of Juirk smoothing is that the Jurik smoothing process is adaptive. "Jurik Volty" (a sort of market volatility ) is what makes Jurik smoothing adaptive. The Jurik Volty calculation can be used as both a standalone indicator and to smooth other indicators that you wish to make adaptive. What is the Jurik Moving Average? Have you noticed how moving averages add some lag (delay) to your signals? ... especially when price gaps up or down in a big move, and you are waiting for your moving average to catch up? Wait no more! JMA eliminates this problem forever and gives you the best of both worlds: low lag and smooth lines. Ideally, you would like a filtered signal to be both smooth and lag-free. Lag causes delays in your trades, and increasing lag in your indicators typically result in lower profits. In other words, late comers get what's left on the table after the feast has already begun. Included -Advanced filtering system using multiples of standard deviation, this filter acts paint dynamic support and resistance levels on the chart based on volatility -Double Jurik filtering -Toggle bar color on/off
Pine Script™ indicator
by loxx
1
Sentient levelThe indicator presented here is made based on the study published on NSE:INDIAVIX . Basically it shows 2 sigma (by default) trading ranges of the next day (by default) of indices e.g. NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY . Everyday three new lines get plotted automatically on the chart of the instrument (preferably NSE:NIFTY & NSE:BANKNIFTY ) you want to trade. Generally it's expected that the index to be traded within the ranges however in case of major gap-up or gap-down if the index opens above the higher range or below the lower range then it's assumed that the day to remain very volatile. This three lines can be considered as important support/resistance . Default parameters are set in consideration of day trading however user can modify them manually as per their trading style. If you like my work you can donate through Tradingview coin. Thanks
Pine Script™ indicator
by arn_sad
13
Auto Support & Resistance With Wick Signals & Percentage GapsThis auto support and resistance indicator uses percentage deviations from the previous session close to calculate levels. It provides arrows as signals when it detects 2 wicks in the last 5 bars from a support or resistance level. Includes alerts for price crossing any level as well as real time percentage gaps from current price to the next closest support and resistance level. You also have the option to set up to 3 major levels of your own for any levels that are very important on longer timeframes that you want included. Those will show on the chart as well as within your percentage gap table with color coded background. All features can be customized or turned off to suit your preferences. SOURCE This indicator uses the previous session close as a source by default but can be adjusted to use the previous session high or the previous session low. I find the close setting to provide the most accurate levels. SESSION The default setting for the previous session used is the daily session but can be adjusted to use the daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or yearly session. Use longer sessions when looking at longer time frame charts. SIGNALS The signals by default are set to only show an arrow if there have been 2 bullish or bearish wicks off of a support or resistance level in the last 5 bars. This can be changed to one bullish wick off of support and one bearish wick off of resistance or it can be set to give a signal anytime a bar crosses a support or resistance level. This can be controlled in the indicator settings. PERCENTAGE DEVIATION LEVELS The default percentage deviation is set to 1% but can and should be adjusted according to whatever ticker you are using. For example use .25% or .5% when looking at forex intraday charts since they are not as volatile as other markets. For leveraged etfs used 1% multiplied by the leverage on the etf, so for SQQQ use 3% as it is a 3x leveraged etf. When looking at longer timeframes or highly volatile charts, set the percentage deviation to 2%, 5%, 10%, etc. LINE COLORS The color of the lines will change from red to green depending on if the price is above or below that level. You can customize these colors in the settings. MAJOR LEVELS If you have major levels of support and resistance from longer timeframes and your own charting, you can add up to 3 major levels that will show on the chart as well as show the percentage gaps in the table. The label for each major level will be colored to match the color of the line on the chart individually. PERCENTAGE GAP TABLE The gap table will update live with percentages to go from current price to the next closest support and resistance levels so you don’t have to calculate them manually. The position of the percentage gap table can also be changed within the indicator settings. TURN FEATURES ON/OFF There are 3 toggle switches so you can easily turn on or off certain features such as: the support and resistance lines, the percentage gaps table and the arrow signals. LINE WIDTHS You can also set the line width of all levels and the line width of the starting level within the indicator settings. ***MARKETS*** This indicator can be used as a signal on all markets, including stocks, crypto, futures and forex. ***TIMEFRAMES*** This automatic support and resistance indicator can be used on all timeframes as long as there is enough data for the session used. ***TIPS*** Try using numerous indicators of ours on your chart so you can instantly see the bullish or bearish trend of multiple indicators in real time without having to analyze the data. Some of our favorites are our Volume Spike Scanner, Volume Profile, Momentum and Trend Friend in combination with this auto support and resistance indicator. They all have real time Bullish and Bearish labels as well so you can immediately understand each indicator's trend.
Pine Script™ indicator
by FriendOfTheTrend
18
Standard Deviation Refurbished█ Standard Deviation Refurbished This is an indicator that serves to show the standard deviation in a more improved and less trivial form. Basically, I put the option to normalize the indicator in a range of 0 to 100. I also put 10 moving averages of standard deviation. In the graphic part was placed the choice of themes. Gratitude to the author 'The_Caretaker' by the themes 'Spectrum Blue-Green-Red' and 'Spectrum Blue-Red'. █ Concepts "Standard Deviation is a way to measure price volatility by relating a price range to its moving average. The higher the value of the indicator, the wider the spread between price and its moving average, the more volatile the instrument and the more dispersed the price bars become. The lower the value of the indicator, the smaller the spread between price and its moving average, the less volatile the instrument and the closer to each other the price bars become. Standard Deviation is used as part of other indicators such as Bollinger Bands. It is often used in combination with other signals and analysis techniques." (TradingView)
Pine Script™ indicator
by andre_007
4
Normal Distribution Outliers for volume (NDO indicator)The NDO is a volume-based indicator that indicates how many standard deviations the volume is away from the mean volume. In other words, this script is useful for detecting when the volume is abnormally large, spotting pumps and dumps, and movement of whales. Green indicates that the volume is more than 3 standard devs away from the mean, yellow means its more than 2 standard deviations away from the mean, and orange means it is more than 1 standard deviation away from the mean, with red means volume is less than one standard deviation from the mean. Statistically, 68% of results show up in 1 standard deviations of the mean, 95% in 2 standard deviations of the mean, 99.7% in 3 standard deviations of the mean, making green highly abnormal.
Pine Script™ indicator
by spiritualhealer117
11
Standard Deviation Channels (ThinkorSwim identical)Saw the standard deviation channels indicator on ThinkorSwim and found a way to replicate it. However, the full range (kind of useless feature) is not the same as ThinkorSwim, but using without full range and setting your own length will be identical to the same length on ThinkorSwim. If you have any recommendations of your trading strategy using this, how to make the script better or any additions, they would be very helpful to suggest.
Pine Script™ indicator
by SUNNY29081975
8
Volatility Risk Premium GOLD & SILVER 1.0ENGLISH This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for GOLD and SILVER. V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for GOLD and SILVER options. The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility GOLD and SILVER ultimately realize (Realized Volatility). I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days. At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the precious metals (or both). Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period. The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator. Interpretation When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal. When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets. When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much. When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days). CONCEPTS : Volatility Risk Premium The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash. This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio. In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible. Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive. Realized/Historical Volatility Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time. Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas. For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices. Implied Volatility Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days). IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility. Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish. For determining GOLD and SILVER implied volatility I used their volatility indices: GVZ and VXSLV (30-day IV) provided by CBOE. Warning Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening. This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame. ---------------------------------------------------------------------- ESPAŇOL Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para GOLD y SILVER. V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de GOLD y SILVER. La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el ORO y la PLATA (Volatilidad Realizada). Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación. Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los metales preciosos (o ambos). Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real. La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador. Interpretación Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal. Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados. Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado. Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días). CONCEPTOS : Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado. Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera. En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante. Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo. Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado. La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes. Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios. Volatilidad Implícita La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días). IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita. La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista. Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de GOLD y SILVER utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: GVZ y VXSLV (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE. Precaución Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura. Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Pine Script™ indicator
by IQ-trading
Fibonacci LevelsENGLISH FiboLevels uses standard deviation (a measure of market volatility). For me, more successful parameters were EMA, 500 days, showing levels 50 and 100. The standard RSI 14 indicator helps to determine the levels, you can use its values to navigate the levels if the price approaches any line, and the RSI is in the overbought or oversold zone, that is, there is a high probability that the price may rebound from this level. If the script does not display levels, then you need to reduce the length parameter If the price has gone beyond the lines, then the number of levels can be increased in the Number of Lines Show parameter Russian В FiboLevels используется стандартное отклонение (величина измерения волатильности рынка). Для меня более удачными параметрами вышли EMA, 500 дней , показ уровней 50 и 100. Определять уровни помогает стандартный индикатор RSI 14, по его значениям можно ориентироваться в уровнях, если цена подходит к какой-либо линии, а RSI находится в зоне перекупленности или перепроданности, то есть большая вероятность что от этого уровня цена может оттолкнуться. Если скрипт не отображает уровней, то нужно уменьшить параметр длина Если цена вышла за пределы линий, то количество уровней можно увеличить в параметре Number of Lines Show
Pine Script™ indicator
by im237
4
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) 1.0ENGLISH This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100. V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 index options. The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 ultimately realize (Realized Volatility). I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days. At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the indices (or both). Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period. The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator. Interpretation When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal. When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets. When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much. When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days). CONCEPTS: Volatility Risk Premium The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash. This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio. In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible. Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive. Realized/Historical Volatility Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time. Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas. For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices. Implied Volatility Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days). IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility. Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish. For determining S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 implied volatility I used their volatility indices: VIX and VXN (30-day IV) provided by CBOE. Warning Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening. This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame. ESPAŇOL Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para S&P500 y Nasdaq-100. V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de los índices S&P500 y Nasdaq-100. La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el S&P500 y el Nasdaq-100 (Volatilidad Realizada). Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación. Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los índices (o ambos). Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real. La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador. Interpretación Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal. Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados. Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado. Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días). CONCEPTOS: Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado. Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera. En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante. Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo. Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado. La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes. Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios. Volatilidad Implícita La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días). IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita. La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista. Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de S&P500 y Nasdaq-100 utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: VIX y VXN (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE. Precaución Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura. Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Pine Script™ indicator
by IQ-trading
1