Volatility Impulse [VI] (Expo)█ Overview
The Volatility Impulse Indicator is a trading tool that measures the rate of change in an asset's price volatility. It helps identify potential market entry or exit points by signaling high or low volatility periods, which could suggest increased price momentum or consolidation. The Volatility Impulse Indicator will spike when the market is highly volatile, indicating a potential trend reversal or breakout. Conversely, when the market is less volatile, the indicator will be more stable, indicating a possible continuation of the current trend.
█ Trend Feature
Adding a Trend feature to the volatility line makes the indicator a complete trading tool that can be used in many strategies. This trend feature capitalizes on the historical price momentum to determine the current trend direction, providing additional context and insight for traders. The historical price momentum essentially encapsulates the speed and strength of price changes over a certain period. By integrating this information into the volatility indicator, traders gain a clearer picture of not only the magnitude of price fluctuations but also the prevailing trend in the market.
█ How is the Volatility Impulse calculated?
The Volatility Impulse Indicator is based on the principle that volatility precedes price action. Therefore, they are useful in predicting future price movements.
In this calculation, we're determining volatility by looking at the greatest absolute difference in price. This is done by comparing two separate things:
The highest price and a previous highest price: The code is essentially looking back at a specific number of bars ('Length') and finding the highest price during that period. It then compares that highest price to the previous highest price (found during the previous 'Length' period). The difference between these two gives a measure of how much the highest price is changing.
The lowest price and a previous lowest price: Similar to the highest price, the code looks back at a specific number of bars and finds the lowest price. It then compares that to the lowest price of the previous period. The difference gives a measure of how much the lowest price is changing.
The 'greatest absolute difference' means it's considering the magnitude of the change, not the direction. So whether the price is increasing or decreasing doesn't matter here - it's the size of the change that counts.
This way of calculating volatility is looking at how much the extreme values (the highest and lowest prices) are changing. If these values are changing a lot, it suggests that price movements are quite volatile. Conversely, if the highest and lowest prices aren't changing much, it suggests lower volatility.
█ How to use
Using the Volatility Impulse Indicator is relatively simple.
Identify potential trend reversals: When the Volatility Impulse Indicator shows a spike, indicating high volatility, traders can look for potential trend reversals.
Volatility Retracement: Volatility retracement takes place in the direction of the ongoing trend and can be interpreted as a sign that the retracement phase is over or exhausted. This typically indicates that enough retail stop losses have been triggered or that sufficient profit-taking has been completed. Both of these factors can contribute to a pause or a reversal in the trend's direction, leading to a temporary spike in volatility.
Volatility Breakout: Sudden and rapid price movement beyond a certain level may indicate a potential breakout. This event suggests that the price has enough momentum to continue its direction, marking the breakout as valid.
Trend Confirmation: When the volatility line reaches its upper or lower band, it indicates an increase in volatility, suggesting a strengthening trend. When the volatility line oscillates around the midline, it may indicate decreasing volatility and a weakening trend or consolidation.
Overbought/Oversold Conditions: If the volatility line is above the upper line, it could indicate an overbought situation, suggesting a potential reversal or pullback, a perfect place to take partial profit. Conversely, a volatility line below the lower band may signal an oversold market, suggesting a possible upward movement or reversal, a perfect place to take partial profit.
Manage risk: Traders can use the Volatility Impulse Indicator to manage risk. When the market is highly volatile, traders can place stop-loss orders at strategic levels, thereby limiting their risk.
█ Any Alert Function Call
Any alert function call allows traders to combine predefined alerts. For example, they can pair 'trend is positive' with 'volatility line spikes below the lower band,' and so on.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
Volatilityspike
Volatility patterns / quantifytools- Overview
Volatility patterns detect various forms of indecisive price action, on a larger scale as a compressed range and on a smaller scale as indecision candles. Indecisive and volatility suppressing price action can be thought of as a spring being pressed down. The more suppression, the more tension is built and eventually released as a spike or series of spikes in volatility. Each volatility pattern is assigned an influence period, during which average and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics.
- Patterns
The following scenarios are qualified as indecision candles: inside candles, indecision engulfing candles and volatility shifts.
By default, each indecision candle is considered a valid pattern only when another indecision candle has taken place within 3 periods, e.g. prior inside candle + indecision engulfing candle = valid volatility pattern. This measurement is taken to filter noise by looking for multiple hints of pending volatility, rather than just one. Level of tolerated noise can be changed via input menu by using sensitivity setting, by default set to 2.
Sensitivity at 1: Any single indecision candle is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 2: 2 indecision candles within 3 bars is considered a valid pattern
Sensitivity at 3: 2 indecision candles within 2 bars (consecutive) is considered a valid pattern
The following scenarios are qualified as range patterns: series of lower highs/higher lows and series of low volatility pivots.
A pivot is defined by highest/lowest point in price, by default within 2 periods back and 2 periods forward. When 4 pivots with qualities mentioned above are found, a box indicating compressed range will appear. Both required pivots and pivot definition can be adjusted via input menu.
- Influence time and metrics
By default, influence time for each volatility pattern is set to 6 candles, a period for which spike(s) in volatility is expected. For each influence period, average relative volatility (volatility relative to volatility SMA 20) and peak relative volatility is recorded and stored to volatility metrics. All metrics used in calculations are visible in "Data Window "tab. Average and peak volatility during influence period will vary depending on chart, timeframe and chosen settings. Tweaking the settings might result in an improvement and is worth experimenting with.
- Visuals
By default, indecision candles are visualized as yellow lines and range patterns as orange boxes. Influence time periods are respectively visualized as colored candle borders, applied as long as influence time period is active. All colors are fully customizable via input menu.
- Practical guide
Volatility patterns depict moments of equal strength from both bulls and bears. While this equilibrium is in place, price is stagnant and compresses until either side initiates volatility, releasing the built up tension. On top of hedging and playing the volatility using volatility based instruments, some other methods can be applied to take advantage of the somewhat tricky areas of indecision.
Example #1: Trading volatility
Volatility is not a bad thing from a trading perspective, but can actually be fertile ground for executing trade setups. Trading volatility influence periods from higher timeframes on lower timeframes gives greater resolution to work with and opportunities to take advantage of the wild swings created.
Example #2: Finding bias for patterns
Points of confluence where it anyway makes sense to favor one side over the other can be used for establishing bias for indecisive price action as well. At face value, it makes sense to expect bearish reactions at range highs and bullish reactions at range low, for which volatility patterns can provide a catalyst.
Example #3: Betting on initiation direction
Betting on direction of the first volatile move can easily go against you, but if risk/reward is able to compensate for the poor win rate, it's a valid idea to consider and explore.
Volatility Risk Premium (VRP) 1.0ENGLISH
This indicator (V-R-P) calculates the (one month) Volatility Risk Premium for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P is the premium hedgers pay for over Realized Volatility for S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 index options.
The premium stems from hedgers paying to insure their portfolios, and manifests itself in the differential between the price at which options are sold (Implied Volatility) and the volatility the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 ultimately realize (Realized Volatility).
I am using 30-day Implied Volatility (IV) and 21-day Realized Volatility (HV) as the basis for my calculation, as one month of IV is based on 30 calendaristic days and one month of HV is based on 21 trading days.
At first, the indicator appears blank and a label instructs you to choose which index you want the V-R-P to plot on the chart. Use the indicator settings (the sprocket) to choose one of the indices (or both).
Together with the V-R-P line, the indicator will show its one year moving average within a range of +/- 15% (which you can change) for benchmarking purposes. We should consider this range the “normalized” V-R-P for the actual period.
The Zero Line is also marked on the indicator.
Interpretation
When V-R-P is within the “normalized” range, … well... volatility and uncertainty, as it’s seen by the option market, is “normal”. We have a “premium” of volatility which should be considered normal.
When V-R-P is above the “normalized” range, the volatility premium is high. This means that investors are willing to pay more for options because they see an increasing uncertainty in markets.
When V-R-P is below the “normalized” range but positive (above the Zero line), the premium investors are willing to pay for risk is low, meaning they see decreasing uncertainty and risks in the market, but not by much.
When V-R-P is negative (below the Zero line), we have COMPLACENCY. This means investors see upcoming risk as being lower than what happened in the market in the recent past (within the last 30 days).
CONCEPTS:
Volatility Risk Premium
The volatility risk premium (V-R-P) is the notion that implied volatility (IV) tends to be higher than realized volatility (HV) as market participants tend to overestimate the likelihood of a significant market crash.
This overestimation may account for an increase in demand for options as protection against an equity portfolio. Basically, this heightened perception of risk may lead to a higher willingness to pay for these options to hedge a portfolio.
In other words, investors are willing to pay a premium for options to have protection against significant market crashes even if statistically the probability of these crashes is lesser or even negligible.
Therefore, the tendency of implied volatility is to be higher than realized volatility, thus V-R-P being positive.
Realized/Historical Volatility
Historical Volatility (HV) is the statistical measure of the dispersion of returns for an index over a given period of time.
Historical volatility is a well-known concept in finance, but there is confusion in how exactly it is calculated. Different sources may use slightly different historical volatility formulas.
For calculating Historical Volatility I am using the most common approach: annualized standard deviation of logarithmic returns, based on daily closing prices.
Implied Volatility
Implied Volatility (IV) is the market's forecast of a likely movement in the price of the index and it is expressed annualized, using percentages and standard deviations over a specified time horizon (usually 30 days).
IV is used to price options contracts where high implied volatility results in options with higher premiums and vice versa. Also, options supply and demand and time value are major determining factors for calculating Implied Volatility.
Implied Volatility usually increases in bearish markets and decreases when the market is bullish.
For determining S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 implied volatility I used their volatility indices: VIX and VXN (30-day IV) provided by CBOE.
Warning
Please be aware that because CBOE doesn’t provide real-time data in Tradingview, my V-R-P calculation is also delayed, so you shouldn’t use it in the first 15 minutes after the opening.
This indicator is calibrated for a daily time frame.
ESPAŇOL
Este indicador (V-R-P) calcula la Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (de un mes) para S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
V-R-P es la prima que pagan los hedgers sobre la Volatilidad Realizada para las opciones de los índices S&P500 y Nasdaq-100.
La prima proviene de los hedgers que pagan para asegurar sus carteras y se manifiesta en el diferencial entre el precio al que se venden las opciones (Volatilidad Implícita) y la volatilidad que finalmente se realiza en el S&P500 y el Nasdaq-100 (Volatilidad Realizada).
Estoy utilizando la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) de 30 días y la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) de 21 días como base para mi cálculo, ya que un mes de IV se basa en 30 días calendario y un mes de HV se basa en 21 días de negociación.
Al principio, el indicador aparece en blanco y una etiqueta le indica que elija qué índice desea que el V-R-P represente en el gráfico. Use la configuración del indicador (la rueda dentada) para elegir uno de los índices (o ambos).
Junto con la línea V-R-P, el indicador mostrará su promedio móvil de un año dentro de un rango de +/- 15% (que puede cambiar) con fines de evaluación comparativa. Deberíamos considerar este rango como el V-R-P "normalizado" para el período real.
La línea Cero también está marcada en el indicador.
Interpretación
Cuando el V-R-P está dentro del rango "normalizado",... bueno... la volatilidad y la incertidumbre, como las ve el mercado de opciones, es "normal". Tenemos una “prima” de volatilidad que debería considerarse normal.
Cuando V-R-P está por encima del rango "normalizado", la prima de volatilidad es alta. Esto significa que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar más por las opciones porque ven una creciente incertidumbre en los mercados.
Cuando el V-R-P está por debajo del rango "normalizado" pero es positivo (por encima de la línea Cero), la prima que los inversores están dispuestos a pagar por el riesgo es baja, lo que significa que ven una disminución, pero no pronunciada, de la incertidumbre y los riesgos en el mercado.
Cuando V-R-P es negativo (por debajo de la línea Cero), tenemos COMPLACENCIA. Esto significa que los inversores ven el riesgo próximo como menor que lo que sucedió en el mercado en el pasado reciente (en los últimos 30 días).
CONCEPTOS:
Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad
La Prima de Riesgo de Volatilidad (V-R-P) es la noción de que la Volatilidad Implícita (IV) tiende a ser más alta que la Volatilidad Realizada (HV) ya que los participantes del mercado tienden a sobrestimar la probabilidad de una caída significativa del mercado.
Esta sobreestimación puede explicar un aumento en la demanda de opciones como protección contra una cartera de acciones. Básicamente, esta mayor percepción de riesgo puede conducir a una mayor disposición a pagar por estas opciones para cubrir una cartera.
En otras palabras, los inversores están dispuestos a pagar una prima por las opciones para tener protección contra caídas significativas del mercado, incluso si estadísticamente la probabilidad de estas caídas es menor o insignificante.
Por lo tanto, la tendencia de la Volatilidad Implícita es de ser mayor que la Volatilidad Realizada, por lo cual el V-R-P es positivo.
Volatilidad Realizada/Histórica
La Volatilidad Histórica (HV) es la medida estadística de la dispersión de los rendimientos de un índice durante un período de tiempo determinado.
La Volatilidad Histórica es un concepto bien conocido en finanzas, pero existe confusión sobre cómo se calcula exactamente. Varias fuentes pueden usar fórmulas de Volatilidad Histórica ligeramente diferentes.
Para calcular la Volatilidad Histórica, utilicé el enfoque más común: desviación estándar anualizada de rendimientos logarítmicos, basada en los precios de cierre diarios.
Volatilidad Implícita
La Volatilidad Implícita (IV) es la previsión del mercado de un posible movimiento en el precio del índice y se expresa anualizada, utilizando porcentajes y desviaciones estándar en un horizonte de tiempo específico (generalmente 30 días).
IV se utiliza para cotizar contratos de opciones donde la alta Volatilidad Implícita da como resultado opciones con primas más altas y viceversa. Además, la oferta y la demanda de opciones y el valor temporal son factores determinantes importantes para calcular la Volatilidad Implícita.
La Volatilidad Implícita generalmente aumenta en los mercados bajistas y disminuye cuando el mercado es alcista.
Para determinar la Volatilidad Implícita de S&P500 y Nasdaq-100 utilicé sus índices de volatilidad: VIX y VXN (30 días IV) proporcionados por CBOE.
Precaución
Tenga en cuenta que debido a que CBOE no proporciona datos en tiempo real en Tradingview, mi cálculo de V-R-P también se retrasa, y por este motivo no se recomienda usar en los primeros 15 minutos desde la apertura.
Este indicador está calibrado para un marco de tiempo diario.
Mid to High daily % - MA & ThresholdPurpose of this script is to provide a metric for comparing crypto volatility in terms of the % gain that can be garnished if you buy the midpoint price of the day and sell the high***. I'm specifically using bots that buy non-stop. This metric makes it easy to compare crypto coins while also providing insight on what a take profit % should be if I want to be sure it closes often instead of getting stuck in a position.
Added a few moving averages of (Mid-range to High Daily %). When these lines starts to trend down, it's time to lower the take profit % or move on to the next coin.
Decided to add a threshold so I could easily mark where I think the (Mid-range to High Daily %) is for most days.
Ex. I can mark 10% threshold and can eyeball roughly ~75% of the days in the past month or so were at or above that level. Then I know I have plenty volatility for a bot taking 5% profit. Also if you have plenty of periodic poke-through that month (let's say once a week) you might argue that you can set it to 7% if you're willing to wait about that long. Either way this metric is conservative because it is only the middle of the range to the high, a less conservative version might provide the % gain if you bought the day low and sold the day high.
***Since this calculation only takes the middle of the range and the high of the day into account, red days are volatile against a buyer but to your advantage if you are a seller. BUT if you have plenty of safety buy orders this volatility in price only means your total purchase volume increases and when/if you reach a take profit level you sell more there.
Would like to upgrade and add a separate MA line for green days and a separate MA line for red days to discern if that particular coin has a bias. Also would like to include some statistics on how many candles are above or below threshold for a certain period instead of eyeballing.
Average True Range ShiftThis indicator builds on the idea of the Average True Range (ATR) as a way of measuring volatility. It uses two different ATRs to show a shift in market volatility.
It is mainly composed of two moving averages of ATR. One fast moving, which looks back at the previous 5 periods. One slow moving, which looks back at the previous 21 periods. Both ATRs have been normalized (show percentage instead of an absolute amount). The third component of this indicator is the histogram that is created by subtracting the slow moving average, from the fast moving average.
By having two ATRs of different lengths, traders can see how short term volatility compares to long term volatility, and how it is shifting over time. When the fast-moving crosses above the slow-moving, it will show a positive value on the histogram, meaning that short term volatility is increasing and higher than normal. When it crosses below, it will show a negative value on the histogram, meaning that short term volatility is decreasing, and lower than normal.
There are a variety of ways to utilize this indicator, and it will work in most markets. I find it is best to analyze macro market conditions on daily charts and above, rather than micro intraday moves.
Specter Alpha-Omega Volatility Index™Meet the Alpha-Omega Volatility custom indicator by Specter
This premium volatility indicator uses a series of models to compare historical volatility, and by using a series of noise reduction techniques, it only gives you the very best signals. This indicator shows you aggressive reversals, which are often the most profitable.
The customization options already come with pre-sets, and it's as simple as one click. It comes with Aggressive, Moderate, Conservative and Ultra Conservative behaviors filters.
Also, it offers an interest zone indicator so you can start paying attention to the chart before it happens when trading extra volatile stocks timing is crucial and you want to be ready before the action begins.
The way you use it is pretty simple, you look for divergences. When you have a bullish movement, and you see high negative volatility appearing in the Alpha-Omega indicator, it means a strong reversal/spike is coming. The same goes for bearish reversals, just the opposite logic. You also get an extra layer of confirmation which is the Alpha/Omega characters; they only appear with the most robust volatility prediction. It's up to your trading strategy to decide how conservative you are and which signals you will follow.
It works on any market/security/asset/timeframe.
Ready to ride some spikes?
