HMA Z-Score Probability Indicator by Erika BarkerThis indicator is a modified version of SteverSteves's original work, enhanced by Erika Barker. It visually represents asset price movements in terms of standard deviations from a Hull Moving Average (HMA), commonly known as a Z-Score.
Key Features:
Z-Score Calculation: Measures how many standard deviations the current price is from its HMA.
Hull Moving Average (HMA): This moving average provides a more responsive baseline for Z-Score calculations.
Flexible Display: Offers both area and candlestick visualization options for the Z-Score.
Probability Zones: Color-coded areas showing the statistical likelihood of prices based on their Z-Score.
Dynamic Price Level Labels: Displays actual price levels corresponding to Z-Score values.
Z-Table: An optional table showing the probability of occurrence for different Z-Score ranges.
Standard Deviation Lines: Horizontal lines at each standard deviation level for easy reference.
How It Works:
The indicator calculates the Z-Score by comparing the current price to its HMA and dividing by the standard deviation. This Z-Score is then plotted on a separate pane below the main chart.
Green areas/candles: Indicate prices above the HMA (positive Z-Score)
Red areas/candles: Indicate prices below the HMA (negative Z-Score)
Color-coded zones:
Green: Within 1 standard deviation (high probability)
Yellow: Between 1 and 2 standard deviations (medium probability)
Red: Beyond 2 standard deviations (low probability)
The HMA line (white) shows the trend of the Z-Score itself, offering insight into whether the asset is becoming more or less volatile over time.
Customization Options:
Adjust lookback periods for Z-Score and HMA calculations
Toggle between area and candlestick display
Show/hide probability fills, Z-Table, HMA line, and standard deviation bands
Customize text color and decimal rounding for price levels
Interpretation:
This indicator helps traders identify potential overbought or oversold conditions based on statistical probabilities. Extreme Z-Score values (beyond ±2 or ±3) often suggest a higher likelihood of mean reversion, while consistent Z-Scores in one direction may indicate a strong trend.
By combining the Z-Score with the HMA and probability zones, traders can gain a nuanced understanding of price movements relative to recent trends and their statistical significance.
Zscoredivergence
Z Pack BollingerOur new "Z Pack" indicator is a modified version of the traditional Bollinger Bands indicator, with a bunch of additional features what makes it a powerful tool that allows traders to make informed decisions based on the market's volatility and short-term trend.
The z-score of the Bollinger Bands indicator is a measure of how many standard deviations the current price is away from the moving average. This provides a more normalized view of the price action, which can be especially useful in identifying potential trend changes. In this form of indicator it is much easier to notice the most extreme deviations from the mean.
One of the main advantages of using this indicator is that it can help traders identify market conditions that are unusually far away from the mean, which can be indicative of a potential trend reversal or that, with sustained momentum a new trend may be about to begin.
Another advantage of the Z-Score Bollinger Bands indicator is that it can help traders identify when a market is trending. This is because when the Z-score is consistently high or low, it can indicate that a trend is in progress or that a trend may be reversing, respectively.
As for the additional features with which we have charged this indicator, there are many of them and they will be explained now.
Capital line
"Capital line" is based on a kernel regression of z score value over time.
The kernel regression is a non-parametric method that allows to estimate the underlying probability density function of a random variable and this way provides a smooth representation of the data. By using this method, the "Сapital line" is able to react to market changes much faster than traditional methods and gives traders a more accurate representation of the short-term trend.
Also we have developed a filter that reduces the number of false signals (you can toggle it in the settings). It is also possible to enable the display of only the capital line to focus only on it.
Divergence search
One of the unique features of the indicator is its ability to search for divergence between the z score and the price. A divergence occurs when the indicator and the price are moving in opposite directions, indicating a potential trend reversal. This allows traders to identify potential market turning points and make informed decisions.
It is possible to search for divergence on a Z-score, although it is not a common practice. In technical analysis, divergence is a method of comparing the movement of an asset's price with an indicator, such as an oscillator, in order to identify potential trend reversals. The same concept of divergence can be applied to a Z-score by comparing the movement of a value's Z-score to the underlying data, for example, by comparing the change in Z-score to the change in the underlying price of a stock. However, this is not a widely used approach and requires thoughtful analysis, but according to our observations, it provides quite important information about the potential exhaustion of the current trend.
By combining the z-score with the price, traders can look for divergences that might not be as obvious when looking at the indicator or the price alone. For example, if the z-score is trending higher while the price is trending lower, this could indicate a potential bullish reversal. Similarly, if the z-score is trending lower while the price is trending higher, this could indicate a potential bearish reversal.
Price Labels
The labels indicating the price of an asset that corresponds to a specific level of the standard deviation are a useful feature for traders because it allows them to quickly identify key levels of support and resistance. By placing limit orders at these levels, traders can potentially enter or exit trades at more favorable prices. This can help to improve the risk-reward ratio of their trades, as well as potentially increase the chances of a profitable outcome. Additionally, having these labels readily available can save traders time in identifying key levels of support and resistance, allowing them to focus on other aspects of their trading strategy.
Additionally, there is an option to analyze the previous volatility of the instrument for a specified time period. If the instrument has crossed the maximum standard deviation level at least once during the specified time period, a separate dashed line will be drawn on the z score chart, demonstrating how volatile the instrument is in the context of the specified time period. This is known as Extreme Mode.
The feature of analyzing the previous volatility of an instrument using the z score indicator can be beneficial for traders in a number of ways. One major advantage is that it allows traders to quickly assess the historical volatility of an instrument and compare it to current volatility levels. This can be useful for determining if an instrument is currently experiencing unusually high or low volatility, which can in turn inform trading decisions.
Another advantage of this feature is that it allows traders to quickly identify key levels of volatility that have been historically significant for the instrument. For example, if an instrument has frequently crossed the maximum deviation level during a specified time period, a trader may choose to place limit orders at that level in anticipation of the instrument reaching it again in the future.
The ability to see the price at a particular moment in time when the price breaks through the 4th(selectable) level of the z score can be an advantage for traders as it allows them to quickly identify key price levels and potentially place limit orders at those levels. This feature can be useful for traders who want to take advantage of market volatility or for those who want to set stop-loss or take-profit levels.
Additionally, the feature can be useful for identifying key levels of support and resistance, as well as for identifying potential entry and exit points for trades. By having the ability to quickly identify these key levels, traders can make more informed decisions about their trades and potentially increase their chances of success in the market.
Alerts
The "Z pack" indicator also includes an advanced, customisable alerting system, with alerts for z level touches, zero crossings, changes in the direction of the capital line, and confirmed or potential divergence. It allows them to stay informed of key developments in the market in real-time and take action accordingly.
For example, if the indicator generates an alert for a z level touch, a trader can place a market order at that level knowing that the price has reached a significant level of volatility. Similarly, an alert for a zero crossing (up/down) can indicate a change in trend, and a trader can use this information to adjust their strategy accordingly.
The alerts of confirmed or potential divergence can be especially useful for identifying potential turning points in the market and make decisions based on that.
NB! Remember, it is important to have a solid trading plan in place and to properly manage risk when trading. Our custom indicator can be a useful tool, but it should not be the only factor considered when making trade decisions.
