IBEX 35: Nearly Three Consolidation IBEX 35: Nearly Three Decades of Stability and Long-Term Growth Prospects
The IBEX 35 chart distinctly showcases an impressive trend over nearly 30 years, from 1997 to 2025, fluctuating between 6,500 and 12,500 points. This extensive consolidation period has historically provided a solid foundation for significant trend movements.
Key Points:
🔸 Downward Trend from 2008 to 2023:
Throughout these years, the index displayed a persistent downward trend, remaining within a declining channel. However, in 2023, this trend was overcome, creating new avenues for growth.
🔸 Breakaway from the Downtrend:
Currently, the IBEX 35 has exited the confines of its downward trend. It is important to note that this shift may be partly influenced by high inflation, which elevates the nominal values of assets.
🔸 Current Resistance Zone:
At present, the IBEX 35 is approaching the upper boundary of its range, near 12,000 points. A successful breakout and consolidation above this level would confirm a bullish outlook. In such a scenario, the index could increase by 70% over the next decade, reaching between 15,000 and 20,000 points.
🔸 Risk of a Bearish Scenario:
If the 12,000-point threshold is not breached and the index fails to stabilize above it, there is a significant risk of a decline towards the lower end of the range (7,000–8,000 points). This correction could last between one to two years, but it typically concludes with renewed growth following the testing and breaking of the downward trend.
Optimistic Projection:
I lean towards the bullish scenario, where the IBEX 35, in the short term, decisively surpasses the 12,000-point level. This would propel the index to historic highs near 15,000 points and, in the long run, to levels around 20,000 points.
Both Scenarios Indicate Growth:
Regardless of the short-term movements, both scenarios suggest continued long-term growth. Even with a correction towards the lower levels (7,000–8,000 points), the subsequent rise would be the logical continuation after testing and overcoming the downward trend.
