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IBEX 35: Strengthening on the International StageBy Ion Jáuregui – Senior Analyst, ActivTrades Today the Ibex 35 kicked off with strength, surpassing 12,882 points within its first trading hour and leaving behind yesterday’s close of 12,847.40. It was a Friday session marked by the ongoing tension between the U.S. executive branch and the Federal Reserve, which dragged Wall Street lower and spread caution among European investors. Despite this adverse backdrop, the Spanish benchmark held up relatively well, underscoring why so many regard it as one of the strongest markets on the global stage. Meanwhile, the Euro Stoxx 50® dipped 0.40% to 4,915.74 after brushing the upward trendline drawn from the 2020 and 2022 lows around 4,545 points. During the week of April 14–18, the Ibex 35 moved forcefully higher. It opened at 12,609.80 and, after two days of gains exceeding 2%, closed the week at 12,918.00—posting a roughly 2.5% advance. That momentum persisted even as the second half of the week cooled off, highlighting the index’s capacity to rebound amid neutral or slightly negative news. Technical Analysis The index continues to press higher today. Its RSI sits in neutral territory at 59%, having shed overbought readings from Friday’s session and retraced just above the 12,701 support level. The trading range borne of U.S. tariff headlines seems to be in the rearview mirror, and the Ibex now appears intent on consolidating around current prices before challenging its highs again. On the one-hour chart, the Point of Control lies at 13,275—right in the middle of the prior 13,025–13,495 range. Meanwhile, moving average crossovers are flashing bullish signals: the 200 period average is about to cross above the 100 period, and the 50 period remains firmly sloped upward. With scarcely any new macroeconomic catalysts on the immediate horizon, last week’s momentum may well carry the index back toward its previous trading zone. With few fresh data points ahead, it’s likely that inertia from last week will extend gains toward earlier price levels. At ActivTrades, we advise waiting for a clean consolidation in the 12,000–12,180 area before adding new positions—using that opportunity to place protective stops below 11,589 on the Ibex and 4,545 on the Euro Stoxx. This approach limits risk while providing clear visibility, in a market environment that favors highly liquid, dividend paying stocks typically leading the recovery phases. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:ESP35K2025Long
by ActivTrades
IBEX 35: Turnaround and Chinese assets flooding threatBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The IBEX 35 starts today's trading day in an environment in which two major scenarios converge that will set the course of European markets. On the one hand, expectations regarding the statements of the President of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, and the continuity of the corporate results season in the US, which influence global sentiment, stand out. On the other hand, Europe faces the risk of becoming the new destination of a massive flood of Chinese goods, which are exported at rock-bottom prices. This already happened in Spain a decade ago with the arrival of the large Chinese exporters, but this fear seems to be spreading to the rest of the EU countries. Technical Analysis IBEX 35 The Spanish selective opens the session trying to consolidate the rebound registered in previous days. There is intense activity at technical levels near 12,320 and 12,555 points, key areas that represent Fibonacci retracements against recent highs. Volatility reigns in the short term, reminding us of the adage of the novice's fear of trading market closes. This caution is reinforced by the imminent intervention of Lagarde, whose stance on monetary policy could have a direct impact on risk perception and the performance of the euro against the dollar. If we review the two strong trading zones of the IBEX at the moment we can see that the control point is located above 13,297 points near the highs and 12,055 points in the area of the last impulse. In 1 day position chart presents us with the range zone between 12,235 and 11,235 slightly above the support of 11,196 points with its middle zone at 11,600 zone that has contacted twice this week to bounce in the current direction. If we look at the movements of the last few days, the area has been clearly defined as support. Today the market seems to be generating a crossover of the 50-average over the 100-average which indicates the possible return towards 12,760 in the early hours of the morning. This could reinforce the idea of an IBEX regaining directionality if it reaches its previous trading zone highs. Simultaneously, the start of the earnings season on Wall Street - with important presentations by financial giants - adds an extra layer of uncertainty. The results of large banks, together with the movements of indices such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones, will act as a thermometer of global sentiment, also impacting the mood of investors in Europe. Europe, the new destination for Chinese goods at rock-bottom prices In a context in which the United States is tightening its tariff policy against China, the Asian giant is forced to seek alternative markets for its trade surplus. Europe, with characteristics similar in size and consumption patterns to the U.S. market, is now positioned as the next natural port for Chinese ships loaded with cheap goods. This redirection follows the imposition of trade barriers that have sapped Chinese exports to the U.S. and forced Beijing to resort to extremely aggressive pricing to offload its excess capacity. Signs of a deflationary environment in China-reflected in declines in the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index-indicate that Chinese manufacturers are willing to cut margins further. The result is a flood of products at rock-bottom prices which, while it may immediately benefit the European consumer's pocketbook, also poses a serious risk to the competitiveness of local industry. The consequence could be an erosion of market shares and greater internal tensions, in a scenario in which the European Union is forced to act to protect strategic sectors. Integrated perspective and risk management On the one hand, optimism in the IBEX 35 is fueled by expectations for a less restrictive monetary policy, backed by Lagarde's statements and the dynamism of global markets which, despite corrections in Wall Street and Asia, invite us to consider new opportunities. Today's session becomes a real battlefield where risk management is fundamental, as “headlines move fast and facts define them”. On the other hand, the threat of an avalanche of Chinese goods represents a structural change that could alter the balance of the European market in the medium term. While lower prices increase consumer purchasing power, the massive influx of low-cost products poses serious challenges for local manufacturers, which could see their competitive capacity threatened. Brussels' response could take the form of safeguard measures and new tariffs to curb the entry of these goods, with the risk of generating additional friction in the relationship with China. Conclusion The IBEX 35 is at a crossroads where opportunities from a potentially more benign monetary environment and the uncertainty of the global trade impact converge. Today's trading day requires investors to adopt a strategy based on constant observation of macroeconomic data, statements from monetary policymakers and developments in international markets. In short, while the stock market moves on headlines and facts, the structural risk of a flood of Chinese assets adds a complex nuance that requires meticulous risk management and alertness to abrupt changes in the economic and trade scenario. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acting on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades
IBEX 35: Possible brake to the tariff 'whiplash'.The announcement of new tariffs by the Trump Administration has unleashed a wave of uncertainty in global markets. With a 10% across-the-board tariff in the US, 20% for the European Union and up to 34% for China, these measures have ignited fears of stagflation in the US, which has repercussions internationally and directly affects investor confidence. Initial impact on the IBEX 35 Last Friday, the Spanish stock market suffered a historic fall, with the IBEX 35 losing almost 6% to around 12,400 points. This plunge, the worst recorded since the beginning of the covid crisis, wiped out tens of billions of euros of market capitalization, highlighting the strong impact of trade policies on the Spanish market. Impact on the banking sector The banking sector, a fundamental pillar of the IBEX 35, has been particularly hard hit. Entities such as Sabadell, Santander, BBVA, CaixaBank, Unicaja and Bankinter have suffered double-digit losses. Rising costs and pressure on profit margins have caused this sector to be severely impacted, reflecting the market's sensitivity to global instability. Persistence of the downtrend Although Friday's plunge had already set a negative precedent, the downward trend continued on Monday. Investors continue to reduce positions in risky assets, confirming the persistence of uncertainty. The lack of progress in international negotiations and the possibility of new countermeasures reinforced the pessimism in the market, keeping the IBEX 35 down at the opening of the session. Reaction in other markets and safe-haven assets The uncertainty generated by the tariffs has affected other financial indicators. Sovereign bonds are showing declining yields, which is evidence of the search for safer assets. Surprisingly, even gold-traditionally the safe haven of choice in times of high volatility-has lost ground, falling about 2.5% from its recent highs. Oil prices have also fallen, reflecting fears of a global recession and lower energy demand. Technical Analysis IBEX35 The momentum started on January 27th was stopped in March with two double tops. The second one lateralized the index and after the news caused by the tariff wave, on Friday April 4 a death cross was managed that has led the index the same day in a purely bearish session. The closing of the session took place in a context of a 4-hour candle with a lot of wick, bringing the chart closer to 1-hour candles, the last hour of the session a bearish gap was managed that left the price at the lows of the whole year at 11,930 points. The 12.00 zone seems to have acted as a temporary brake. The RSI in Friday's session moved into very high oversold territory, reaching 14.53%. The Spanish premarket hours indicate that the index could be trading around 11,963 points. The POC (Point of Control) zone of the previous weeks is located at 13,277 points. If the index holds its price at the current supports we could see a recovery in the direction of the support lost on Friday at 12,518 points in the current week due to the excessive news depreciation of the index. If the first support lost is recovered the second zone would be 12,760. If this price does not hold there could be the possibility of seeing the lows of 11,294 points. Conclusions and outlook The continued decline of the IBEX 35 underscores the interconnectedness of markets in a global context marked by trade tensions. The impact of the tariff “whiplash” remains profound, and as developments in the negotiations and possible international countermeasures are awaited, investors are preparing to face weeks of high volatility. The prospect of a prolonged economic slowdown remains, forcing the Spanish market to adopt an increasingly cautious stance. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades
The IBEX 35 crossroads: Support or prelude to new falls?By Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst The IBEX 35 is at an interesting juncture. Despite the fact that the average of its stocks is trading at just 40% of its historical highs, the national index is 17% away from its 2007 high, having reached a resistance at 13,466 points (19.69% since 2007) on Tuesday, March 3. This data shows a significant gap between the upside potential and the reality of current share prices, raising questions about the Spanish market's ability to sustain itself in the midst of an uncertain global economic environment. At the beginning of the year, the European stock market experienced a spectacular rally, with some indices rising by more than 15%. However, volatility once again set the tone in March, driven mainly by Donald Trump's tariff threats and a series of geopolitical uncertainties that have permeated international markets. In this context, the IBEX 35 has shown resilience by holding above 11,000 points, a level not seen in the last 17 years, and has avoided radical changes despite momentary corrections following relevant decisions by the US Federal Reserve. One of the most striking points is the heterogeneous behavior of the companies that make up the index. While some, such as Iberdrola and Aena, are close to their all-time highs, others have suffered drastic declines. Colonial, Sacyr and Telefónica, for example, are down more than 80% from their best levels. These differences illustrate not only the particularities of each sector, but also the difficulty of achieving a uniform recovery in a market marked by a wide dispersion in corporate fundamentals. Colonial, Sacyr and Telefónica: paradigmatic cases Colonial's situation is particularly illustrative. In times of real estate boom, the socimi reached an intraday high of 1,423 euros at the end of 2006, during the time when Luis Portillo was leading the market. However, the real estate bubble, which led to a global crisis after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, left its mark on the stock. Today, its shares are trading at around 5.5 euros, with slight increases of around 5.4% a year. Analysts, through the market consensus collected by FactSet, put the target price at 6.5 euros, suggesting a potential recovery of 18% in the short term. However, some analysts see an even greater upside, placing the price at 8.5 euros. Sacyr , on the other hand, has experienced a 92% drop from its best mark, when it traded at around 42.976 euros. At present, the share is trading at around 3 euros, despite having shown some 4% appreciation so far this year. Sacyr's history, marked by a hegemony that once led the group to attempt the acquisition of BBVA, has been overshadowed by results that have not lived up to expectations. The operation with Eiffage, which initially seemed promising, ended up being complicated by legal problems in France. Telefónica is another example of a turbulent trajectory. The multinational reached all-time highs at the beginning of the century, reaching 27.96 euros at the height of the Verónica deal, which consolidated its position in the Latin American market. Today, its shares stand at around 4.3 euros, a fall of 85% from those levels. Expansion into the German market, through the acquisition of UMTS licenses for the 3G system, considerably increased its level of debt. In the last fiscal year, the ratio of net debt to EBITDA reached 3.18 times, 47% higher than in 2000, reflecting the difficulties the company has faced in balancing its growth with a robust financial structure. The overall outlook and short-term expectations Despite the specific challenges of some of the largest IBEX 35 companies, the index as a whole has managed to maintain a sustained advance. The Ibex Total Return has emulated the EuroStoxx 50, reaching historic highs of 12,850 points, although the dividend-free index is still 17% off its highs. This situation creates a dual scenario: on the one hand, there is optimism that the economic recovery and the stabilization of monetary policies could lead to a gradual revaluation; on the other hand, there is the risk of an abrupt correction in the face of new external shocks or internal problems that affect investor confidence. The geopolitical context and statements by figures such as Donald Trump add an extra layer of uncertainty. Ongoing tariff threats and fears of a global trade war may put additional pressure on the market, forcing investors to reconsider their strategies. In this environment, the role of technical support and trend analysis becomes crucial in determining whether the IBEX 35 will be able to sustain itself or whether it will approach new lows. Technical Panorama Currently the index as we have indicated is located above the strong support of 11,239 points where it has consolidated price on at least 3 occasions. If we look at the appearance of the triple bell, the control point (POC) is located around 9,200 points, well below this support. The current trend since October 2022 has been steadily upward. At the present time, it seems to be generating a possible new upward momentum as we can see on the weekly chart a wick that clearly signals resistance to the falls. If we look at the RSI at 69.97% being the week of highs the RSI around 75%. So it would not be unusual a correction movement in the direction of 50% looking to support its rise in the 12,058 points towards the highs. Outlook and conclusions The future of the IBEX 35 will depend to a large extent on the ability of its components to adapt to an increasingly challenging global economic environment. Although the index has shown signs of resilience, the disparity in the recovery of its individual stocks shows that there is still a long way to go to regain historical highs. Recent market history, marked by corrections and ups and downs, suggests that any optimism must be accompanied by caution and a constant assessment of risks. In short, the IBEX 35 is at a crossroads: although it has reached levels not seen in almost two decades, the gap between its values and its all-time highs reveals vulnerabilities that could intensify in a scenario of greater global uncertainty. The key for investors will be to identify those companies that, despite historical declines, present solid fundamentals and recovery potential, in a context where volatility seems to be the only constant. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades
Political shock reflects in Ibex35The euro falls sharply and European risk premia revive the region. The results seem to have woken up in the markets and have been extended especially in southern and peripheral countries and in particular also highlights France with the fall of its bonds, following the decision of President Macron to call early parliamentary elections, after his defeat in a vote of the European Union by the right-wing parties, also added to the interest of the president to involve France in the war in Ukraine, being that S&P has decided to downgrade France's rating to AA- debt. Regarding the Euro elections in Spain: PP obtained 22 seats, PSOE 20, VOX 6 and the rest has been distributed in minority parties. At the European level, the shift has been slightly to the right causing the two main parties S&D (socialists and democrats) to have 134, 20 seats less, PPE has gained 4 seats more with 186, and CRE now has 73, having lost several seats in a generalized way all the parties being outstanding that of the Greens/ALE having 53, 21 seats less. This as we say has affected the EURUSD, with a fall of -0.6% to the monthly low of 1.0733 dollars, being the 21-month low against the EURGBP of 84.49 pence per euro. As we have said, the political shock in Europe has also affected the IBEX 35 (Ticker AT: ESP35). The clear advance of the right-wing parties in several of the largest economies of the old continent has resulted in a bearish start for the IBEX 35, yielding around one point, having set intraday highs this Friday in the area of 11,400 points. In relation to companies in the Spanish index, Aena has downgraded its recommendation on its shares from positive to neutral. If we look at the chart, 11,210 points is the current floor since June 4. Currently the price cut of the elections was a fact that could be predicted in advance but the price has been discounted during the beginning of the day and in the morning premarket. Looking at the RSI it is currently slightly oversold, and the price bell has a double bell shape with the current checkpoint price at 11,360 points and the secondary at 11,330 or so, which is the current price zone. It would not be unusual to see a sluggish week of trading with no volume leading us to touch low prices and try to get back to the average that has been currently being generated at the top of the bell. Ion Jauregui - Analista ActivTrades ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades
IBEX 35 Breaks the Breaks by pressing the gas pedal!Analyzing the recent behavior of the Ibex 35, we observe a week marked by a sideways movement, highlighting a strong bullish breakout on Wednesday , followed by a bullish continuation today. This momentum has followed a range-bound price construction since the end of February. Although industrial production communications were not as negative as expected, and expectations for next week's retail sales are positive, the index has experienced a 0.65% decline this week. Nevertheless, it has managed to hold above the 10,000-point mark, suggesting a possible search for the next milestone at 11,000 points. This advance is supported by the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.5%, along with inflation projections close to the central bank's target. In addition, the Ibex 35 has finally surpassed last year's highs, breaking through resistance at 10,300 points, which had previously been a significant hurdle. Despite the 13-week consolidation in the price construction, the weekly close has reaffirmed the search for the next milestone in the 10,500 points zone to consolidate the uptrend. However, if this does not materialize, we could see a pullback towards 10,222 points to look for a rebound. The indicators show an oversold level of 68.49%, indicating that the Ibex 35 could still have enough momentum to reach 10,500 points before taking a breather. However, the checkpoint stands at 10,074 points, suggesting that the index may lack the strength to sustain a prolonged uptrend. It would be out of character for the index to reach the 11,000 mark and subsequently 2017's all-time high at 11,135 points given the current economic backdrop. It will be crucial to keep an eye on news from the Spanish government regarding its companies next week, as it could influence the direction of the Ibex 35. As always, it is important to stay informed and be prepared to adjust investment strategies according to market developments. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades
IBEX 35 boosted on a bullish day for European marketsEuropean markets have started the week with a positive sentiment after Friday's bullish close on Wall Street, with the USA500 reaching 5000 points. In particular, the IBEX 35 has woken up with the same momentum , although the Italian index has reflected this the most in the early hours. From the end of October to the beginning of December, the IBEX experienced an increase of 16.23%, reaching record highs. During the holidays, the Spanish index remained sideways, with a pullback towards the end of January to 9791.65 points, before stabilizing in the trading area of 9897.82 points. During the first week of February, it touched the middle zone of the Christmas sideways channel around 10123.65 points, and is currently forming a downtrend to return to the levels of the second half of January. Today, the price is trying to break the bearish channel and seems to be recomposing and consolidating a bullish structure that could take it up to 10157 points, where there are multiple trading tops that the index has failed to overcome throughout the month. It is important to bear in mind that the IBEX 35 has a significant weight in the banking sector, and its correlation is not as marked with the US market as it might seem, but its movements are reflected more through the performance of other banking indices such as the EURO STOXX BANKS FUTURES (EUREX). The RSI divergence is at 60%, indicating that there is still room for a bullish move. This week, the Spanish market is awaiting several important data releases, such as bonds, consumer data, inflation and last month's CPI which will be the key news on Thursday. Although expectations are not very positive, with forecasts of higher inflation and lower CPI, these results could have a negative impact on the index. We will be watching to see how this news affects the direction of the market throughout the week. Ion Jauregui - AT Analyst The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ELong
by ActivTrades